Temos aktualumas. Atlikta integruoto rizikos žemės ūkyje vertinimo krypties mokslinės literatūros analizė, leidžia teigti, kad pavienių rizikos rūšių vertinimas yra plačiai analizuojamas. Galima būtų išskirti tokias problemas: kaip verslo subjektai vertina ir valdo skirtingas rizikos rūšis; kaip įvertinti riziką stichinių nelaimių metu; kokios yra rizikos valdymo ypatybės bankų sektoriuje; su kokiomis problemomis susiduria mažos įmonės vertindamos riziką; kaip rizikos valdymas įtakoja pinigų srautus įmonėse; kokie yra rizikos integruoto vertinimo privalumai ir kokia jų įtaka sprendimų priėmimo kokybei; kokios rizikos rūšys yra būdingos žemės ūkio sektoriui; kaip galima įvertinti diversifikuotą riziką ir išskirti integruoto vertinimo privalumus. Minėtuose tyrimuose nebuvo analizuota rizikos rūšių tarpusavio sąveikos ir nebandyta jų vertinti integruotai. Integruotas vertinimas padeda vienu metu identifikuoti net keleto rizikos rūšių sukeliamas grėsmes, to pasekoje padidėja priimamų ekonominių sprendimų efektyvumas. Siekiant integruotai vertinti kelias rizikos rūšis žemės ūkyje būtina į vertinimo metodiką įtraukti aspektus, kurie yra neatsiejami nuo žemės ūkio sektoriaus specifikos ir yra nebūdingi kitoms verslo sritims. Integruotas rizikos žemės ūkyje vertinimas ir tinkamas jo interpretavimas padeda pasiekti norimus veiklos rezultatus ir minimalizuoti nesėkmių galimybes. Mokslinėje literatūroje atkreipiamas dėmesys dažniausiai į dviejų rizikos rūšių integruotą vertinimą... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Relevance of the topic.The completed analysis of scientific literature on integrated risk assessment in agriculture leads to a conclusion that the assessment of separate risk types is extensively analysed. The problems to be addressed include: how business entities assess and manage different risk types; how to assess natural disaster risks; what risk management characteristics are typical to the banking sector; what problems small enterprises face in risk assessment; how risk management affects cash flows in organisations; what integrated risk assessment advantages are and what their impact on decision-making quality is; what types of risk are typical of the agricultural sector; how to assess diversified risks and to expose the advantages of integrated assessment. The research did not address the interrelation between different risk types neither sought their integrated assessment. Integrated assessment enables to identify several types of risks at a time and therefore improves the efficiency of economic decisions. For the purpose of an integrated assessment of several types of risk in agriculture, the assessment methodology must include aspects that are inherent in agricultural sector and not typical of other business areas. Integrated risk assessment in agriculture and its relevant interpretation contribute to the achievement of desired performance results and minimisation of potential failures. Typically scientific literature focuses on integrated assessment of two risk... [to full text]

Safety reviews of existing roads are becoming a popular practice of many agencies nationally and internationally. Knowing road safety information is of great importance to both policymakers in addressing safety concerns and travelers in managing their trips. There have been various efforts in developing methodologies to measure and assess road safety in an effective manner. However, the existing research and practices are still constrained by their subjective and reactive nature. The goal of this research is to develop a framework of Road Risk Indices (RRIs) to assess road risks of existing highway infrastructure for both road users and agencies based on road geometrics, traffic conditions, and historical crash data. The proposed RRIs are intended to give a comprehensive and objective view of road safety, so that safety problems can be identified at an early stage before they rise in the form of accidents. A methodological framework of formulating RRIs that integrates results from crash prediction models and historical crash data is proposed, and Linear Referencing tools in the ArcGIS software are used to develop digital maps to publish estimated RRIs. These maps provide basic Geographic Information System (GIS) functions, including viewing and querying RRIs, and performing spatial analysis tasks. A semi-parameter count model and quantile regression based estimation are proposed to capture the specific characteristics of crash data and provide more robust and accurate predictions on crash counts. Crash data collected on Interstate Highways in Washington State for the year 2002 was extracted from the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) and used for the case study. The results from the case study show that the proposed framework is capable of capturing statistical correlations between traffic crashes and influencing factors, leading to the effective integration of safety information in composite indices. / text

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This study examined the possible relationship between maternal depressive states and changes in levels of risk to child development, in a sample of mothers of babies born in medium-sized city and around the central region of Rio Grande do Sul (RS). The survey was conducted in University Hospital in which the children were newborn hearing screening in the period from March to May 2010, with the mother-infant dyads. In the data collection was used a structured interview on socioeconomic, demographic, obstetric and psychosocial and experience of motherhood. To investigate the maternal depressed mood was used Beck Depression Inventory (BDI). In the evaluation of the babies was done filming the interaction of mother-infant dyad and implementation of Clinical Indicators of Risk for child development (IRDIs).Most mothers in this study was not suffering from depression, and low socioeconomic status and non - planned birth were the most common risk factors for the onset of depression in the postpartum period. The analysis showed that a higher proportion of babies with IRDIs altered when levels of maternal depression are elevated in the postpartum period and may adversely affect the interaction of mother-infant and mainly reflected as a risk factor for child development. The presence of social support, especially fellow and no difficulties in forming the maternal experience are variables significantly associated with absence of risk for child development. Therefore, not only the presence or absence of depression, but factors such family support and maternal role constitution are the most important factors for the full development of the baby. This paper suggests the need for an interface between psychology, speech pathology and other health professionals in monitoring the postpartum period in order to minimize the consequences of postpartum depression and help the mother-baby when the parental role are not going so good enough. / Este estudo analisou as possíveis relações entre estados depressivos maternos e alterações nos índices de risco ao desenvolvimento infantil, em uma amostra de mães de bebês nascidos em cidade de porte médio e arredores, da região central do Rio Grande do Sul (RS). A pesquisa foi realizada em Hospital Escola no qual as crianças realizavam triagem auditiva neonatal, no período de março a maio de 2010, com as díades mães- bebê. Na coleta de dados foi utilizado um roteiro de entrevista sobre informações socioeconômicas, demográficas, obstétricas e psicossociais e a respeito da constituição da experiência da maternidade. Para investigar o estado depressivo materno foi aplicado o Inventário de Depressão de Beck (BDI). Na avaliação dos bebês, foi realizada uma filmagem da interação da díade mãe-bebê e aplicação dos Indicadores Clínicos de Risco para o desenvolvimento infantil (IRDIs). A maioria das mães desse estudo não estava acometida de depressão, sendo que o baixo nível socioeconômico e a não - planejamento da gestação foram os fatores de risco mais frequentes, para o aparecimento da depressão no período pós-parto. A análise realizada apontou que há maior proporção de bebês com índices de desenvolvimento ausentes, quando os níveis de depressão materna são elevados no período pós-parto. Este resultado confirma que a depressão pós-parto pode ter implicações negativas na interação da díade mãebebê e principalmente repercutir como um fator de risco ao desenvolvimento infantil. A presença de suporte social, sobretudo do companheiro e a ausência de dificuldades na constituição da experiência da maternidade apresentaram-se como variáveis estatisticamente associadas à ausência de risco ao desenvolvimento infantil. Portanto, não apenas a presença ou ausência de depressão, mas o apoio familiar e a possibilidade de ocupar função materna são os fatores mais importantes para o pleno desenvolvimento do bebê. O trabalho sugere a necessidade de uma abordagem de interface entre Psicologia, Fonoaudiologia e demais profissionais da saúde no acompanhamento do período pós-parto com o objetivo de minimizar as conseqüências da depressão pós-parto e de auxiliar a díade mãe-bebê quando as funções parentais não estão acontecendo de modo suficientemente bom.

Ce travail a pour objectif d’évaluer le risque de tsunami sur le littoral atlantique marocain au moyen d’une approche intégrée, menée sur la base de scénarios de risque, multiscalaires, combinant de la modélisation numérique de l’alea, une évaluation spatiotemporelle des enjeux, et des critères de vulnérabilité physique et humaine. L’étude s’articule en deux phases. Une première phase consiste à évaluer à l’échelle régionale, l’exposition du littoral atlantique marocain au risque de tsunami, en développant une démarche méthodologique de mesure de l’exposition au risque de tsunami basée sur une cartographie intégrant des paramètres d’aléa issus de la modélisation numérique d’un tsunami similaire à celui de 1755 et des bases de données régionales sur l’occupation du sol. Elle aboutit à un jeu de géo-indicateurs de risques agrégés sur plusieurs mailles territoriales (communale et mailles de 5 km de côté) qui permet de dresser une analyse comparative de ce risque à l’échelle du Maroc. Une seconde phase porte sur le risque de pertes humaines en cas de tsunami majeur sur la ville d’El Jadida, exprimé au moyen de géo-indices de risque. La vulnérabilité humaine y est exprimée par une probabilité de décès. Ces probabilités sont données par des matrices fondées sur les données de la submersion marine issues de la modélisation numérique et des critères de vulnérabilité déterminés au moyen de courbes d’endommagement empiriques. Les indices de risque obtenus intègrent la variabilité spatio-temporelle de la répartition de la population au pas horaire pour deux saisons. [etc.] / This work aim to assess the risk of tsunami along the Moroccan Atlantic coast. The approach is based on the risk scenario which combines the hazard numerical modelling, spatio-temporal, stakes and criteria of the physical and human vulnerability. This study consists firstly in assessing the exposure of the Moroccan Atlantic coast to tsunami risk at the regional scale. The approach based on coupling the numerical modeling of hazard of tsunami similar to 1755 and regional land use database. It provide a set of geo-risk indicators aggregated in several meshes on the ground (municipal grid square with side of 5km), make possible to draw a comparative analysis of the risk across Morocco. Secondly it involves the risk of loss of life in case of major tsunami at the city of El Jadida, expressed in terms of geo-risk indices. Human vulnerability is expressed by a probability of loss of life. These probabilities are given by matrices based on data from marine submersion numerical modeling and vulnerability criteria determined through empirical curves damage. Risk indices obtained include the spatio-temporal distribution of the population, in the hourly step for two seasons. [etc.]