This diploma thesis analyses various approaches to calculate risk-free interest rate. In the beginning it deals with the term risk-free asset a various types of bases we could start calculating from. The paper suggests using spot rates and searches for alternative interest rates on the market. These are subsequently applied to real data coming from Czech market. Specifically they are the bootstrapping method and also the method of deriving risk-free interest rate from interest swap rate. Closing thoughts are dealing with various problems an appraiser may encounter while calculating risk-free rate. For example the problem of using nominal/real rates, nonexistent long-term government bonds or the presence of a default risk for particular government. This diploma thesis closes with a decision tree that could serve as a lead for appraiser in the process of estimating risk-free interest rate.

<p>1.3. Research Questions.</p><p>With this in mind, the research questions of this work are:</p><p>1. Is the Capital Asset Pricing Model still applicable despite the heavy impact of the financial crisis on the financial systems?</p><p>2. What happens to this model when the risk free rate approaches zero?</p><p>3. Is there a relationship between the riskiness of an asset and the risk-free interestrate when the latter is approaching the zero level?</p>

1.3. Research Questions. With this in mind, the research questions of this work are: 1. Is the Capital Asset Pricing Model still applicable despite the heavy impact of the financial crisis on the financial systems? 2. What happens to this model when the risk free rate approaches zero? 3. Is there a relationship between the riskiness of an asset and the risk-free interestrate when the latter is approaching the zero level?

近年來海峽兩岸利率持續走低，已經對壽險公司之財務產生負面影響，故銷售固定利率保險商品之壽險業者，其資金運用報酬與業務成本間之利差損現象日益擴增，為避免財務負擔日增而影響其清償能力，市場趨勢乃轉向能將風險大部分轉移給保單持有人並讓其分享大部分投資利得之投資型保險商品。本文就海峽兩岸投資型保險商品，從法規架構、監理體系、商品種類內容、市場行銷等方面加以詳細比較分析，並以1988-1994年英國銷售投資型保險商品所發生之退休金不當銷售弊案(mis-selling scandal)為借鏡，進而歸納出所面臨之各種問題，再針對此等問題提出可能解決之道，作為兩岸發展投資型保險之參考。 關鍵字：投資型保險、投資連結保險、變額保險、指數連結保險、指數連結年金、萬能壽險、變額萬能保險、分紅保險、利率風險、不當銷售、英國退休金不當銷售弊案、保險監理、保險法沿革。 / With the continued decline in interest rates having an adverse impact on Taiwan and Mainland life insurance companies' balance sheets, the insurance companies that sell the traditional guaranteed products have experienced the increasing interest loss resulted from the gap of their investment returns and operation costs. To avoid the companies from insolvency crisis arising out of the increasing financial burden, there is a trend, recently in both Taiwan and Mainland markets, that the insurance business focus has been averted from the traditional products toward investment-linked products that transfer most risk to policyholders and enable them to share in most investment gains. This paper compares the investment-linked insurance between Taiwan and Mainland markets in the viewpoints of the legal structure, regulation systems, variety of products and marketing of investment -linked products. This paper also analyses the famous U.K. mis-selling scandal in 1988-1994, and tries to make this scandal into a valuable lesson to both markets. After listing the issues and problems which are encountered by the insurance companies, the suggestions for resolving such issues and problems are submitted as the conclusion of this paper. Key Words: Investment-linked insurance, Variable insurance, Equity Index Insurance, Equity Index Annuity, Universal life insurance, Variable universal insurance, With-profit insurance. Risk of interest rate, Mis-selling, U.K. mis-selling scandal, Insurance regulation. History of insurance law

已實現投資報酬率與無風險利率之差、被稱為超額報酬，而股票的預期報酬率超過無風險利率的部份則為股票風險溢酬，是許多資產評價模型的重要依據，例如資本資產定價模型。有不同的理論架構解釋說明風險溢酬值，例如；股票風險溢酬的迷思、短期損失的憎惡、生還存留因素和回歸與偏離平均值等等。 研究台灣股市的超額報酬與股票風險溢酬，有助投資大眾和企業理性面對股市的預期報酬和風險，對台股才有合理的期望報酬值。分析1967年迄2003年的台灣金融市場，計算過去37年長期的幾何平均年報酬率，以臺灣證券交易所發行量加權股價指數為台股市場報酬率，已實現台股實質年報酬率為6.71%。無風險報酬率使用第一銀行的一年期定期存款利率，實質台幣存款年利率為3.07%，消費者物價指數年增率則為4.80%。以年資料計算的台股實質超額報酬，算術和幾何值分別為12.48%和3.63%(年)，計算月資料算術平均和幾何平均值分別為0.77%和0.25%(月)。過去37年長期的台股超額報酬現象未較歐美市場的情況更加明顯，也比一般市場的預期報酬率低。 因資料取得的限制、台股的理論超額報酬方面，1991年迄2003年的近十三年來，經固定股利成長模式和盈餘成長模式的兩種計算方式，台股的實質超額報酬分別為 0.6%和-4.3%，此時期台股的投資報酬率比起台幣存款並不突出、且是低超額報酬。同期的已實現的實質超額報酬值；算術平均1.69%和幾何平均-3.35%。評估目前台股風險溢酬，將十分接近過去37年長期歷史資料得到的超額報酬數值，算術年均值為12.48%(年)和0.77%(月)，幾何平均分別為3.63%(年)和0.25%(月)，低風險溢酬是當前台灣股票市場的一般現象。 / The difference between the observed historical investment return and the risk-free interest rate is the excess return. The equity risk premium, ERP is the expected rate of return on the aggregate stock market in excess of the rate of risk-free security. ERP is one of important factor of many asset-pricing models, including Capital Asset Pricing Model, CAPM. There were many theories and factors to explain the equity risk premium; equity premium puzzle, myopic loss aversion, survivorship bias, mean reversion & aversion and etc. Studying the value of Taiwan equity excess return and risk premium is fundamental for investors and institutions evaluating the expected market investment return and risk. Analyzing the data from year 1967 to 2003 for thirty-seven years long holding period, Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index as Taiwan stock market return, the realized real return was 6.71%. One-year bank time deposit rate as NT dollars risk-free asset rate and real interest rate was 3.07% and consumer price index, CPI annual growth rate was 4.80%. The historical real yearly excess return was 12.45% for arithmetic mean and 3.63% geometric mean; the historical real monthly excess return was 0.77% for arithmetic mean and 0.25% geometric mean. Taiwan realized equity excess returns were not higher than the returns in the developed countries and were also lower than the market's expectation. Due to the limits of available data, the theoretical equity excess returns that were calculated on two theoretical models; Constant Growth Dividend Discount Model (dividend yield model) and earnings yield model were 0.6% and -4.3% from year 1991 to year 2003. Comparing the same period of historical realized excess returns of 1.69% for arithmetic mean and -3.35% geometric mean, Taiwan stock market returns were not spectacular. The current equity risk premium of Taiwan stock market is low and should be near the level of the long historical realized equity excess return.