This paper will first explore the effect of interest rate changes on the stock returns of Taiwan-listed life insurance companies. Then, we will examine the sensitivity of Taiwanese life insurance companies to interest rates by assuming and explicitly testing a two-factor model. Surprisingly, we found that stock return of the life insurance companies are not significantly affected by the interest rate movement. We will investigate and analyze the reasons why the result is inconsistent with our knowledge. One reason might be due to lack of timely financial reports. We observed that embedded value might be a better financial indicator used to evaluate the interest rate impact on life insurance company financial soundness. / This paper will first explore the effect of interest rate changes on the stock returns of Taiwan-listed life insurance companies. Then, we will examine the sensitivity of Taiwanese life insurance companies to interest rates by assuming and explicitly testing a two-factor model. Surprisingly, we found that stock return of the life insurance companies are not significantly affected by the interest rate movement. We will investigate and analyze the reasons why the result is inconsistent with our knowledge. One reason might be due to lack of timely financial reports. We observed that embedded value might be a better financial indicator used to evaluate the interest rate impact on life insurance company financial soundness.

台灣逐漸步入高齡化社會，由於各種經濟社會因素，一般個人利用早年的儲蓄準備退休後的生活，已是不可避免的趨勢。衡諸個人自己獨力負擔退休生活所需的準備，不外乎是加入保險，藉助集體互助的力量達成，或是自力儲蓄，藉由金融工具的使用，累積財富。在政府宣示的亞太營運中心計劃勢必將帶動國內金融發展。屆時，行之歐美諸國已久的遞延年金商品可望引進台灣的保險業界，使自力儲蓄的個人能透過金融商品的多元化，選擇最有效用的金融商品，以謀取退休後的生活準備。鑑於美國業者經營遞延年金商品的教訓，在文獻的閱讀之中，筆者發現利率風險在精算界所受到的重視與發展成果值得國人借鏡，因此發奮研究利率風險在遞延年金商品中所扮演的角色，份量及其因應之道。希冀能在未來國內業者推行遞延年金之際，對經營此商品所面臨的風險能有清楚的認識，也希望監理機關能了解業者的需求而給予適度的協助。相信在健康的經營環境下，遞延年金商品會替消費者帶來莫大的福祉。本論文的研究方法為文獻探討，研究方向與目的有三：一、了解遞延年金商品的內容及其使用價值。二、辨識遞延年金商品的利率風險。三、探討如何衡量遞延年金商品利率風險與其管理的方法。 / When Taiwan stepped into old-aged society, as driven by variety of economic and social forces, an individual has to prepare for his(her) retirement during the ealier working years. By doing so, he(she) can enter into the insurance plans or mutual help-each-other societies, or by individual self-saving plans and use of new financial instruments. Now, the Taiwan Government initiate an Asian Operation Center Project that may have the domestic financial market boomed up. By that time, it's possible that Deffered annuity products sold in foreign countries like USA or those in Europe over many years will appear at Taiwan market and bring the Taiwan consumer more efficient ways of preparation for retirement. After the inspection of lessons learned by United States life insurance companies while these company were selling the Defferd Annuities, the author find that the interest rate risk are emphasized extensively in actuarial literatures and it's development is worth while the domestic companies to take lessons. Thus, the author study the problem with interest rate risk and the proper measures to manage the risk. It's hoped that in the coming future, at the time of Deffered Annuities, the domestic companies will already have clear understandings about the risks they face. And it's hoped that the government understand the insurance companies' needs and give them help. It's believed that in a sound environment, the consumer will benefit from the advent of Deffered Annuities. The research method used is literature research, and the direction and goal of the study is as follows: 1.Understand what's Deffered Annuity and it's uses. 2.Indentify the interest rate risks inherent in Deffered Annuities. 3.Examine the various measures to manage the interest rate risk.

長久以來，台灣債券型基金一直存在收益率（Yield）與流動性（Liquidity）的迷思。在國際巿場上，收益率（Yield）與流動性（Liquidity）存在某著的扺換（Trade Off）關係，欲享有倩券型基金高收益，可能必須犧牲某種程度之流動性，反之亦然。而在台灣巿場上卻是硬將兩者置於同向，為達到此目的，透過作價讓淨值不跌，是其一之方法。而作價問題由來已久，其最主要的原因是缺乏殖利率曲線，也就是沒有一個公平巿價評價基礎。主管機關規劃以九十四年底為界限，自九十五起，所有的債券新投資必須採取公平巿價評價，但不溯及既往。但在解決最終問題的過渡期間，債券型基金所存在的問題是什麼呢？以50%持債投資組合觀之，20%的結構債，自九十三年九月以來，因六個月期LIBOR已上揚一三○個基本點，是問題的主要根源，也正因為如此，存在著所謂的流動性風險及利率風險。 基於上述，為研究近期以來債券型基金所面臨之流動性風險、利率風險、信用風險，以及投信業者對於債券型基金的風險控管如何具體落實，故為此篇研究報告並進行分析。 再者，對於債券型基金面臨可能買到地雷債、利率自谷底緩步走揚、債巿空頭來臨等巿場因素，主管機關、投信、投資人之於債券型基金，為一建議。

銀行的利率風險管理是資產負債管理中相當重要的課題，尤其是隨著金融自由化與國際化的發展，同業市場競爭日漸激烈，使銀行利差縮小，獲利能力大不如前，因此如何管理利率風險，避免利率波動對銀行淨值與獲利能力的影響對銀行而言將更形重要。而資訊科技在企業的應用，已從以往輔助性的角色漸漸轉變為增加企業競爭優勢的策略武器。雖然我國金融業引進電腦科技於日常業務處理已有二十年了，但後檯管理作業仍以人工處理為主，如何利用管理資訊系統更有效率的提供相關訊息，已成為各銀行面臨的迫切課題。 　　然而國內雖有一些資產負債管理資訊系統相關的研究，唯對銀行利率風險管理方面的著墨並不深入；也有些關於銀行利率風險管理相關的文獻，但還沒有專門針對銀行利率風險管理結合管理資訊系統方面的探討。所以本文試圖由此方向出發，建立一銀行利率風險管理資訊系統架構，並運用實際銀行的資料於雛型系統上，發現利用銀行利率風險管理資訊系統，將可更有效率的提供相關訊息，並可將計算複雜、具技術性且專門的利率風險衡量方法及避險工具操作模型納入系統中，增加銀行利率風險管理的效率與效能。 / The interest rate risk management is a very important element in the bank Asset Liability Management(ALM). As the higher degree of deregulation and internationalization of financial environment, bank interest rate spread is compressed and the profit is decreased. Interest rate risk management becomes even more important for banks to maximize its net worth or total profit. The advance of information technology(IT) in business has become one of the most important strategic weapon to increase the business competitive edge. Although there have more than 20 years experience of IT on local financial institution, IT has seldom been used to the decision making levels. So, in the near future, how to apply management information systems(MIS) to help bank management has become a major concern. 　　In the past, the research on the bank asset liability management system was less emphasis on the application of MIS on the interest rate risk management. This paper provides a bank interest rate risk management system framework which can help the bank managers to assess the interest rate risk. Finally, a bank's historical data was used to evaluate the prototype system, and the result shows that the prototype system could improve the bank interest rate risk management.

保險公司之雙率風險發酵，除了高預定利率保單，使得保險公司承擔利率風險，造成保險公司高額的利差損外。自2007年修法，提升保險業國外投資限額不得超過保險業資金45%，當年度國外投資佔31.21%。2014年修改保險法第146條之4，增設「投資於國內市場之外幣計價股權或債券憑證之投資金額可以不計入國外投資限額」之規定，當年度國外投資部位增加至50.27%。至2016年底壽險業國外投資部位已達12.59兆元，占全體壽險業可運用資金62.71％。 然而，利差交易能帶來收益的前提是匯市波動必須平穩，因為利差交易得承擔匯率波動風險，如果匯率大幅波動，匯差損失可能侵蝕利差收益。2017年前四個月新台幣驟升約6.8％，影響壽險業淨匯兌損失837億元，外匯準備金水位從441億元降至231億元。匯率的變動使得壽險業面臨極大的匯損壓力，一再地顯示檢視匯率風險的重要性。 本研究建構隨機資產負債管理模型，提供公司內部模型之參考。以市場統計資訊及市場保險公司之經驗資料建構模型，嘗試複製市場實際狀況，藉此模擬未來時點之公允價值，最後以風險指標評估保險公司之清償能力，得到以下結論： (1)財務槓桿比例愈高時，違約機率及幅度愈高，建議控制在約15倍左右。 (2)匯率風險增加時，違約機率及幅度增加，應建立適當避險策略。 (3)躉繳型利變型年金在沒有宣告利率保證下，違約風險較傳統型年金低。

本研究運用的投資組合理論(Portfolio Theory)與免疫理論(Immunization Theory)建構資產負債管理模型，希望在於免除利率風險下，能夠極大化勞保基金的投資報酬率。本研究探討勞保老年給付年金制實行後，勞保基金在資產負債管理之下最適資產配置。我們以勞保局編印之「勞工保險統計年報」中勞保基金民國81年到91年實際投資的資料及勞保局委託研究之精算報告對於老年給付年金制實行後未來勞保基金的給付預測值，在不同年金選擇率以及不同的費率與控管年限下，根據勞保基金資產與負債的存續期間，建議勞保基金最適的投資組合，並計算資產負債管理成本，研究結果發現： 1 年金選擇率為100％及80%時，勞保費率提高至8.3%僅能確保未來30年與40年勞保基金不會因為利率變動而導致基金破產甚至無力清償，但考慮年限為50年時，國內市場無法找到存續期間可以配合的投資工具，無法規避利率風險。年金選擇率為50%時，由於未來各年之勞保的給付獲得舒緩，使得資產配置所需的存續期間也降低，故當勞保費率提高 至8%即可確保勞保基金未來50年可以規避利率風險的危機，且在國內市場上可以找到投資工具配合。 2. 要使勞保基金免於利率風險的考慮年限越長，其投資組合的重心應該從現行的銀行存款移轉到債券及股票與受益憑證。 3. 進行資產負債管理是需要成本的，若以資產負債管理前後效率前緣下的投資報酬率的差異為資產負債管理成本，在年金選擇率100%時資產負債管理平均成本為0.3695%；選擇率80%時平均成本為0.434%；年金選擇率為50%時資產負債管理平均成本為0.384%，研究結果顯示資產負債管理平均成本都低於0.5%以下，故建議勞保基金應盡早進行資產負債管理以因應老年給付年金化後利率風險對於勞保基金財務上的衝擊。 / This paper investigates the Asset-Liability Management for Labor Insurance Fund. We utilize Immunization Theory and Portfolio Theory selection model to immunize the surplus of Labor Insurance Funds against interest-rate fluctuations and to maximize expected return of Labor Insurance Funds simultaneously. In addition, we use the data from Labor Insurance Funds from 1992 to 2002 to demonstrate the implementation of our model. We calculate the optimal asset allocation and the ALM cost under different lump-sum/annuity selection ratio、time horizon and contribution rates. The empirical results from this study show that： 1. Assuming 100% and 80% participants choice annuity, to prevent the insolvency of Labor Insurance Fund from interest-rate fluctuations in 30 and 40 years, the Labor Insurance premium must increase to 8.3%. Assuming 50% participants choice annuity, to prevent the insolvency of Labor Insurance Fund from interest-rate fluctuations in 50 years, the Labor Insurance premium must increase to 8%. 2. To prolong the period over which the Labor Insurance Funds can immunize its surplus against interest-rate fluctuations, a large proportion of the investment asset should be allocate from bank deposit to bond and stock. 3. ALM needs cost. Assuming 100% participants choice annuity, the average ALM cost is 0.3695%.Assuming 80% participants choice annuity, the average ALM cost is 0.434%.Assuming 50% participants choice annuity, the average ALM cost is 0.384%. We find the average ALM cost is very small under any lump-sum/annuity selection ratio. Therefore, we suggest Bureau of Labor Insurance should start to implement ALM as soon as possible to avoid the affect of interest-rate fluctuations.

對一些退休基金或是壽險基金來說，因為它們的金額都相當龐大，進而影響的層面也相當廣泛；它們影響著金融市場的發展、有價證券的價格和市場的報酬。 所以，對現今市場投資在這樣長期資產的投資策略而言，以下我們要討論的議題將是非常重要。 以前的退休基金管理計畫是建立在單期的假設當中。根據目前所持有所有資產的部位、目前市場的狀況與對未來報酬的期望，基金管理人將尋求對下期的最適投資決策。傳統的方法都是用期望值-變異數方式(Mean-Variance approach)去極大化投資的報酬，以求取最適部位。但是單期的期望值-變異數方式(Mean-Variance approach)面對了二個問題： 一、 集合各個單期最適決策用多期的眼光來看不一定是最適。 二、 單期最適決策並不能同時處理投資面與集資面的問題。例如：退休基金同時間有每月的收入與每月的投資面。 不像單期的投資方式，使用多期的投資方法比較能符合這樣的投資問題與要求，也比較具有合理性。 投資在長期資產的部位與報酬率，最容易受到利率變動的影響。換句話說，利率變化是影響投資在長期性資產的最大變因。因此，我們將討論的問題：在利率是隨機變動時，以Vasicek (1977)的利率模型為主，加入投資人風險偏好的共同基金的分配原則。這樣的理論下，我們將利用風險中立的方法求出最適的投資組合，以滿足在長期投資觀點下避險與套利的需求。其中投資人的風險偏好是以Merton (1973)提出的常數相關風險偏好(Constant Relative Risk Aversion；CRRA)的效用函數去討論；在文章最後，我們將針對投資人的風險偏好做一些討論，包括：改變CRRA的參數、自然對數的效用函數(Logarithmic utility function)。 以往的研究都採用動態程式設計(Dynamic programming approach)的方法來解決這樣多期投資的問題，但是這樣的方法運用的計算相當複雜，也不一定求的出最適部位解；而利用Cox and Huang (1989)提出的風險中立方法(Martingale approach)將完全的解決以上遇到的問題。 / In this study, we investigate the dynamic mutual fund separation theorem applied to portfolio management for constant relative risk averse investors where, in particular, the interest rate risks are incorporated. Within this economy, the real interest rates and stock prices are assumed to follow the Markovian processes whose drifts and diffusion parameters are driven by certain state variables. Our approach involves the use of the martingale methodology developed by Cox and Huang (1989) as proposed in the work of Deelstra et al. (2003). Following their framework, we consider the economy of the investors that consists of cash, bond fund and stock indices. Adding to the previous works, we investigate the obtained optimal strategies through numerical examples in order to be compared to the allocations of popular advice and clarify the hedge and arbitrage demands in financial decision from long-term perspective. Finally, certain mutual funds are constructed to validate the validity of the popular advice.

本研究以免疫理論（Immunization Theory）與投資組合理論（Portfolio Theory）來架構退休基金的資產負債管理模型，希望在免除利率風險的情況下，極大化退休基金的投資報酬率。本文以退撫基金86年到88年實際投資的實證資料及其對未來給付支出的預測模擬值，在不同考慮年限與提撥率下，建議其最適投資組合，並計算出資產負債管理的成本。最後，再以84年到88年市場平均資料的實證結果，支持並驗證我們以退撫基金內部資料所做的實證結果。研究發現： 1、資產負債管理的成本相當少，因此退撫基金應該儘早進行資產負債管理。若以資產負債管理前後效率前緣下投資報酬率的差異為資產負債管理的成本，以退撫基金內部資料的研究顯示，資產負債管理的平均成本為0.133﹪；以市場平均資料的研究顯示，資產負債管理的平均成本為0.234﹪。 2、在進行資產負債管理的分析後，退撫基金的薪資提撥率應提高至14.84﹪，才能確保未來的30年內，退撫基金不會因為利率變動而導致基金破產甚至無力清償。 3、要使退撫基金免於利率風險的年限愈長，其投資重心必須從短期票券和債券移到債券與股票或受益憑證上。 / This paper investigates the Asset-Liability Management for pension fund. We utilize Immunization Theory and Portfolio Theory selection model to immunize the surplus of pension funds against interest-rate fluctuations and to maximize expected return of pension fund simultaneously. In addition, we use the public trading data of the investment market in Taiwan from 1995 to1999 and the data from the Taiwan Public Employees Retirement System（TPERS）from1997 to 1999 to demonstrate the implementation of our model. We calculate the optimal asset allocation and the ALM cost under different time horizons and contribution rates. The empirical results from this study show that: 1、 The ALM cost is very small. Therefore, we suggest TPERS should start to implement ALM as soon as possible. Given the investment performance of TPERS, We find the ALM cost is 0.133﹪. Given the performance of the investment market, the ALM cost is 0.234﹪. 2、 The TPERS must increase its contribution rate to 14.84﹪ in order to make sure that the TPERS will not be insolvent as a result of interest-rate fluctuations in 30 years. 3、 To prolong the period over which the TPERS can immunize its surplus against interest-rate fluctuations, a large proportion of the investment asset should be allocate from commercial paper and bond to bond and stock.

本論文共分七章、二十七節，內容如下：　第一章　前言。對研究動機、 目的、範圍與限制、內容架構做一簡扼說明。第二章 利率風險之概述。 分別就利率風險之定義，對資產、負債之影響，及評估利率風險的方法， 分別加以闡述。第三章 期間分析之理論基礎。期間分析乃是管理利率風 險的方法之一，本章主要就期間分析的演進、目的、計算、特性做一詳述 。第四章 現金流量之預測－－利率情境分析。此章就資產、負債現金流 量之形成，現金流量與利率風險的關係，以及利率情境分析之定義、模型 、假設、優缺點依序加以介紹。 第五章 期間分析之應用。以前兩章為 基礎，對期間窗口(Duration Window)， 投資周期 ( The Planning Period)，利率風險與投資報酬率的關係，最適期間決策 ( The Optimal Du- ration )，資產負債期間的配合，及期間分析的修正，分別逐一探討 。第六章 實證。以保証利率契約 ( GICs; Guarante- ed Interest Contracts ) 為例模擬操作，說明運用資產負債期間配合達到免疫之效果 。第七章 結論與建議。

近年來台灣的市場利率持續下滑，可能造成保險公司無法實現對被保險人之高預定利率的保單給付承諾，利率風險已經成為壽險公司是否能繼續經營之重要關鍵。壽險公司如未能衡量利率變動風險而貿然推出保單，將對財務造成極大的負擔，不但會影響公司清償能力，亦會對社會造成衝擊，因此壽險公司應先衡量現在及未來將面臨多大的利率風險，做適當資產負債管理，以避免將來失卻清償能力。 　　本研究利用財務上平均存續期間（duration）觀念與Barney（1997）所提出之K值來衡量利率風險，以民國87-89年財務報表資料，實證研究利率風險會對那些經營指標產生影響，以喚起業界對於利率風險之重視。研究結果發現： 　　1.利率風險對於壽險公司之投資報酬率、股東權益報酬率有顯著的影響，並且呈負相關。 　　2.利率風險對於壽險公司之流動比率無顯著相關；與負債比率有顯著之正相關。 　　3.利率風險對於新契約保費成長率、保單繼續率無顯著影響，顯示國內並無明顯之逆中介情況。 　　4.壽險公司可藉由投資較長期之公債、公司債及減少保單貸款、不動產投資與固定資產項目之利率敏感度，以增加壽險公司之獲利性。 / The interest rates have been decreasing recently. Under this circumstance, it might be difficult for insurance companies to gain sufficient investment returns to fulfill the commitment of insurance policies. The interest-rate risk has become one of the critical factors for the solvency of life insurance companies. Therefore, life insurance companies should evaluate the impact of interest-rate risk and perform asset-liability management to prevent insolvency. 　　This study applies the concept of duration and K value (Barney 1997) to measure interest-rate risk and its impact on the operations of life insurance companies in Taiwan. The empirical analysis is conducted based on the financial data of life insurance companies in Taiwan during the period of 1998-2000. The empirical findings are listed as follows: 　　1.Interest-rate risk has a significantly negative impact on both investment return and ROE.. 　　2.Interest-rate risk does not have significant impact on current ratio of the life insurance companies, but it is positively related to debt ratio. 　　3.Interest-rate risk does not have significant impact on either new contract growth rate or policy renewal rate, which indicates that the process of disintermediation does not happen in life insurance industry in Taiwan. 　　4.By investing in the long-term government bonds and corporate bonds and reducing the interest-rate sensitivity of policy loans、investment on real estates and fixed assets , life insurance companies may be able to increase their profits.