Despite considerable uncertainties regarding the exact contribution of anthropogenic climate change to disaster risk, rising losses from extreme events have highlighted the need to comprehensively address climate-related risk. This requires linking climate adaptation to disaster risk management (DRM), leading to what has been broadly referred to as climate risk management (CRM). While this concept has received attention in debate, important gaps remain in terms of operationalizing it with applicable methods and tools for specific risks and decision-contexts. By developing and applying a methodological approach to CRM in the decision context of sovereign risk (flooding) in Austria we test the usefulness of CRM, and based on these insights, inform applications in other decision contexts. Our methodological approach builds on multiple lines of evidence and methods. These comprise of a broad stakeholder engagement process, empirical analysis of public budgets, and risk-focused economic modelling. We find that a CRM framework is able to inform instrumental as well as reflexive and participatory debate in practice. Due to the complex interaction of social-ecological systems with climate risks, and taking into account the likelihood of future contingent climate-related fiscal liabilities increasing substantially as a result of socioeconomic developments and climate change, we identify the need for advanced learning processes and iterative updates of CRM management plans. We suggest that strategies comprising a portfolio of policy measures to reduce and manage climate-related risks are particularly effective if they tailor individual instruments to the specific requirements of different risk layers. (authors' abstract)

This report is for MA575: Market and Credit Risk Models and Management, given by Professor Marcel Blais. In this project, three different methods for estimating Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are used, examined, and compared to gain insightful information about the strength and weakness of each method. In the first part of this project, a portfolio of underlying assets and vanilla options were formed in an Interactive Broker paper trading account. Value at Risk was calculated and updated weekly to measure the risk of the entire portfolio. In the second part of this project, Value at Risk was calculated using semi-parametric model. Then the weekly losses of the stock portfolio and the daily losses of the entire portfolio were both fitted into ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1), and the estimated parameters were used to find their conditional value at risks (CVaR) and the conditional expected shortfalls (CES).

There are repeated calls in the literature for the implementation and evaluation of evidence based HIV prevention programmes. This study aimed to evaluate a life-skills theatre performance for adolescents promoting safer sex behaviour against aspects of an established AIDS risk reduction theory. The study used a quasi-experimental research design, and was operationalised through the use of a questionnaire measuring knowledge, attitudes and perceptions conducive to HIV/AIDS risk reduction. Bandura’s (1990) Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) provided a conceptual framework for the development of the instrument. A further aim of the study was to establish whether the instrument would yield a factor structure that could be linked to Social Cognitive Theory using a principal components factor analysis. A sample of 392 adolescent high school learners in Grades 10 and 11 at two high schools in Naledi, Soweto completed the evaluation instrument. A sample of 165 learners were exposed to the play prior to completion of the evaluation instrument. A sample of 227 learners completed the questionnaire before the play was scheduled to be performed and were thus considered a control group. The effects of exposure to the play, gender, age, grade and whether the learners reported that they were sexually active formed the independent variables in the analysis, which were examined for their influences on the theoretical constructs measured by the instrument through analysis of variance (ANOVA). The results indicated that learners at both schools had a reasonably high level of knowledge, attitudes and perceptions conducive to HIV/AIDS risk reduction. However, learners at the control school scored significantly higher on the factors tapped by the questionnaire than learners attending the school exposed to the play. Possible reasons for these differences are discussed in the report. The results also highlighted significant differences between Grade 11 and Grade 10 learners in knowledge, attitudes and perceptions conducive to HIV/AIDS risk reduction. The physical age of the learner did not appear to be as important as educational level and/or possible social peer group norms on responses to the instrument.

Prevention, mitigation and response to large scale disasters is complex. It is widely argued that collaboration is a necessary component of successful disaster risk reduction (DRR). However, there are also significant challenges associated with collaboration for DRR. In this paper I carry out a descriptive, empirical case study of collaboration within disaster prevention and preparation in Sweden at the municipal level. The aim of the study is to identify potentially interesting patterns regarding collaboration and obstacles to collaboration in local disaster risk reduction. The study answers the question: to what extent do Sweden’s municipalities collaborate with other stakeholders on disaster risk reduction? Interesting patterns regarding the stability versus volatility of collaboration are identified. This study lays the foundation for further research on the potential and limitations of collaborative forms of governance for tackling complex societal phenomena that have a high degree of interdependency and uncertainty.

The low HIV prevalence in Maldives coupled with low HIV comprehensive knowledge presents a challenge to the consistency of the hypothesized HIV knowledge-prevention paradigm. Researchers had not explained why HIV prevalence in Maldives is low despite the low levels of HIV knowledge. The purpose of this qualitative case study was to investigate factors beyond HIV knowledge that contribute to the low HIV prevalence among Maldivian male youth. The research questions focused on the risk-reduction factors in the nonmarital sexual behavior of young Maldivian males that contribute to protecting them from contracting HIV and the predictors of safe and unsafe nonmarital sexual behaviors among this target group. The reasoned action approach (RAA) and the theories embedded in the RRA (i.e., the integrated behavioral model, the theory of reasoned action, and the theory of planned behavior) provided the theoretical foundation for this research. A purposeful sample of 18 male university students participated in open-ended interviews. Data were coded and analyzed to identify themes and subthemes. The results indicated that the low HIV prevalence in Maldives can be attributed to long-standing social values and norms that discourage nonmarital sexual engagement; however, these social values and norms are currently fading away, putting the low HIV prevalence status of Maldives at risk. The implications for social change include providing practitioners with specific risk factors they should address to prevent the spread of HIV that would result in the loss of lives and deterioration in the quality of life among young Maldivian men.

This study examined The Margin Protection Program for Dairy’s impact on the “effective margins” or margins realized by dairy producers in various regions. Each selected margin and percentage of production history offered by the national policy was analyzed in a forecasting, national and regional manner. Couplet margins were simulated for fifteen regions from 2017 through 2020. Five scenarios were analyzed for the change in MPP’s effects under a 15%, 10%, and 5% drop in the price of milk as well as a 50% increase in the price of corn and a scenario where milk decreases 15% while corn prices simultaneously increases 25%. The results demonstrate that more than half of the regions have higher probabilities of triggering indemnities at every coverage level when compared to the US, MPP margin. Margins change in response to the policy effects, where lower coverage levels experience margin increase, and higher coverage levels experience margin decrease. In the US, MPP margin, risk reduction is observed at every coverage level. The program was found to decrease risk at most coverage levels, where higher shocks to the margin increased the protection offered by the program’s effects.

Bakgrund och problem: Majoriteten av försäljningen mellan företag, samt mellan företag och offentlig sektor sker via handelskrediter. Detta leder till att företagen ofta blir utsatta för risker i form av sena och uteblivna betalningar. I sådana situationer finns det behov av riskreduceringsmekanismer som ska reducera och minimera dessa risker. Mekanismerna för reducering av risker har vi fördelat i två kategorier, privata och offentliga. Avsikten med uppsatsen är att undersöka vilka av dessa mekanismer som har störst inverkan på beviljandet av handelskrediter. Den här studien är den första av sitt slag som genomförts i Sverige. Syfte: Uppsatsens syfte är att undersöka, analysera och utvärdera vilka av de privata eller offentliga riskreduceringsmekanismerna som har störst inverkan på beviljandet av handelskrediter. Metod: Den kunskapsteoretiska uppfattningen som har legat till grund för vår undersökning är positivism. Den positivistiska ansatsen har lett till att en hypotetisk-deduktiv ansats med en kvantitativ metod valdes för att få fram resultat och analys. Teoretiska ramverk: Vår studie utgår från ett eklektiskt teoretiskt angreppssätt och tidigare forskning inom området. Vi använder teori som disposition och som en beskrivande del av vår studie. Våra teorier om de privata och offentliga riskreduceringsmekanismerna kommer även att presenteras i detta kapitel. Empirism: Det empiriska materialet är baserat på en enkätundersökning där enkäten skickades som webbenkät och delades ut för hand till olika företag. Materialet har sedan analyserats med hjälp av statistiska tes Resultat: Majoriteten av respondenterna svarade att de offentliga riskreduceringsmekanismerna inte påverkar deras beviljande av handelskrediter i Sverige medan de privata riskreduceringsmekanismerna till en viss grad har påverkan på beviljandet av handelskrediter. Det råder relativt låg risk i den svenska ekonomin vilket kan förklara riskreduceringsmekanismernas relativt låga inverkan på beviljandet av handelskrediter. / Background and problem: Today, the biggest sales between businesses and between businesses and the public sector are through trade credit. As a result, companies are often exposed to risk in the form of late and missing payments. In such situations, there is a need for mechanisms of risk reduction to reduce and minimize these risks. The mechanisms of risk reduction are divided into private and public risk reduction. The point with this dissertation is to show which of these mechanisms that have the greatest impact on the decision making of trade credit. This study is the first in Sweden to implement this type of investigation. Purpose: The point with this paper is to investigate, analyze and evaluate which of the private or public mechanisms of risk reduction those have the greatest impact on decision making on trade credit. Method: The epistemological view which has been the basis for our study is positivism. The positivistic approach has led to a hypothetical-deductive approach with a quantitative method, chosen to obtain the results and analysis. Theoretical perspective: Our study is based on an eclectic theoretical approach and previous research in the area. We use theory to outline the descriptive part of our study. Our theory about the private and public mechanisms of risk reduction will also be included in this chapter. Empirical: The empirical material is based on a survey where a web-questionnaire was distributed to various companies. The material was then analyzed by statistical tests. Results: The majority of respondents replied that the public mechanisms of risk reduction did not affect their decision making on trade credit while the private mechanisms of risk reduction to some degree did affect the decision making on trade credit. There is a relatively low risk in the Swedish economy, which can explain why the mechanisms of risk reduction had relatively low impact on decision making on credit trade.

In light of the most recent devastating natural disaster event of the Philippines brought upon by Typhoon Haiyan (locally known as Yolanda) on November 8, 2013 that displaced and affected millions in its wake, this thesis attempts to look into the country’s status of preparedness and response to climate-related disasters. Amidst the socio-economic challenges facing this impoverished country are the environmental challenges and proneness to natural hazards that problematize adaptation, recovery, and redevelopment efforts for the country. With a focus on the Leyte region of the Philippines as a local case of exploration, the study seeks to explore the role of institutions and actors who are involved, to identify the challenges experienced in the adopting and implementing process, with the hope to illuminate from the data as to why these challenges exist. The research also touches upon a larger discussion beyond what adaptation strategies can contribute, specifically in framing sustainable development for the country. Using a case study research design, qualitative research methods were employed and interviews conducted with various actors to achieve the aims of the study. A theoretical and conceptual framework was used on the paradigms of natural hazards and vulnerability, the three components of adaptation, and the role of actors and institutions. The results showed that institutions play important roles and hold responsibilities in communicating the main objective of adaptation strategies, but is lost among participating actors. In terms of knowledge and involvement with climate-related adaptation, it is an emerging aspect set within the larger disaster risk reduction context. Identified challenges in educating and communicating the strategies often emerge at the government and community-levels, potentially drawing from bureaucratic challenges funneling down to local government units, which are exacerbated by feelings of distrust and strained relations of communities toward the government. Finally, few themes were found from the data in connecting climate change adaptation strategies to a greater role in framing sustainable development in the Philippines. However, alleviation of impoverished conditions and education were two critical aspects for cultivating knowledge needed to promote long-term efforts toward resilience, and thus sustainability of the local people during disaster events.

Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地球環境学) / 甲第19155号 / 地環博第130号 / 新制||地環||26 / 32106 / 京都大学大学院地球環境学舎地球環境学専攻 / (主査)教授 ｼｮｳ ﾗｼﾞﾌﾞ, 教授 岡﨑 健二, 准教授 西前 出 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当

Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地球環境学) / 甲第19160号 / 地環博第135号 / 新制||地環||27 / 32111 / 京都大学大学院地球環境学舎環境マネジメント専攻 / (主査)教授 ｼｮｳ ﾗｼﾞﾌﾞ, 教授 岡﨑 健二, 准教授 西前 出 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当