No / BACKGROUND: Magnetic resonance imaging and echo color Doppler (ECD) scan techniques do not accurately assess the cerebral venous return. This generated considerable scientific controversy linked with the diagnosis of a vascular syndrome known as chronic cerebrospinal venous insufficiency (CCSVI) characterized by restricted venous outflow from the brain. The purpose of this study was to assess the cerebral venous return in relation to the change in position by means of a novel cervical plethysmography method. METHODS: This was a single-center, cross-sectional, blinded case-control study conducted at the Vascular Diseases Center, University of Ferrara, Italy. The study involved 40 healthy controls (HCs; 18 women and 22 men) with a mean age of 41.5 +/- 14.4 years, and 44 patients with multiple sclerosis (MS; 25 women and 19 men) with a mean age of 41.0 +/- 12.1 years. All participants were previously scanned using ECD sonography, and further subset in HC (CCSVI negative at ECD) and CCSVI groups. Subjects blindly underwent cervical plethysmography, tipping them from the upright (90 degrees ) to supine position (0 degrees ) in a chair. Once the blood volume stabilized, they were returned to the upright position, allowing blood to drain from the neck. We measured venous volume (VV), filling time (FT), filling gradient (FG) required to achieve 90% of VV, residual volume (RV), emptying time (ET), and emptying gradient (EG) required to achieve 90% of emptying volume (EV) where EV = VV - RV, also analyzing the considered parameters by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and principal component mathematical analysis. RESULTS: The rate at which venous blood discharged in the vertical position (EG) was significantly faster in the controls (2.73 mL/second +/- 1.63) compared with the patients with CCSVI (1.73 mL/second +/- 0.94; P = .001). In addition, respectively, in controls and in patients with CCSVI, the following parameters were highly significantly different: FT 5.81 +/- 1.99 seconds vs 4.45 +/- 2.16 seconds (P = .003); FG 0.92 +/- 0.45 mL/second vs 1.50 +/- 0.85 mL/second (P < .001); RV 0.54 +/- 1.31 mL vs 1.37 +/- 1.34 mL (P = .005); ET 1.84 +/- 0.54 seconds vs 2.66 +/- 0.95 seconds (P < .001). Mathematical analysis demonstrated a higher variability of the dynamic process of cerebral venous return in CCSVI. Finally, ROC analysis demonstrated a good sensitivity of the proposed test with a percent concordant 83.8, discordant 16.0, tied 0.2 (C = 0.839). CONCLUSIONS: Cerebral venous return characteristics of the patients with CCSVI were markedly different from those of the controls. In addition, our results suggest that cervical plethysmography has great potential as an inexpensive screening device and as a postoperative monitoring tool.

In automatic speech recognition systems (ASRs), training is a critical phase to the system?s success. Communication media, either analog (such as analog landline phones) or digital (VoIP) distort the speaker?s speech signal often in very complex ways: linear distortion occurs in all channels, either in the magnitude or phase spectrum. Non-linear but time-invariant distortion will always appear in all real systems. In digital systems we also have network effects which will produce packet losses and delays and repeated packets. Finally, one cannot really assert what path a signal will take, and so having error or distortion in between is almost a certainty. The channel introduces an acoustical mismatch between the speaker's signal and the trained data in the ASR, which results in poor recognition performance. The approach so far, has been to try to undo the havoc produced by the channels, i.e. compensate for the channel's behavior. In this thesis, we try to characterize the effects of different transmission media and use that as an inexpensive and repeatable way to train ASR systems.

Atrial fibrillation is a common heart arrhythmia which is characterized by a missing or irregular contraction of the atria. The disease is a risk factor for other more serious diseases and the total medical costs in society are extensive. Therefore it would be beneficial to improve and optimize the prevention and detection of the disease.   Pulse palpation and heart auscultation can facilitate the detection of atrial fibrillation clinically, but the diagnosis is generally confirmed by an ECG examination. Today there are several algorithms that detect atrial fibrillation by analysing an ECG. A common method is to study the heart rate variability (HRV) and by different types of statistical calculations find episodes of atrial fibrillation which deviates from normal sinus rhythm.   Two algorithms for detection of atrial fibrillation have been evaluated in Matlab. One is based on the coefficient of variation and the other uses a logistic regression model. Training and testing of the algorithms were done with data from the Physionet MIT database. Several steps of signal processing were used to remove different types of noise and artefacts before the data could be used.   When testing the algorithms, the CV algorithm performed with a sensitivity of 91,38%, a specificity of 93,93% and accuracy of 92,92%, and the results of the logistic regression algorithm was a sensitivity of 97,23%, specificity of 93,79% and accuracy of 95,39%. The logistic regression algorithm performed better and was chosen for implementation in Java, where it achieved a sensitivity of 97,31%, specificity of 93,47% and accuracy of 95,25%. / Förmaksflimmer är en vanlig hjärtrytmrubbning som kännetecknas av en avsaknad eller oregelbunden kontraktion av förmaken. Sjukdomen är en riskfaktor för andra allvarligare sjukdomar och de totala kostnaderna för samhället är betydande. Det skulle därför vara fördelaktigt att effektivisera och förbättra prevention samt diagnostisering av förmaksflimmer.   Kliniskt diagnostiseras förmaksflimmer med hjälp av till exempel pulspalpation och auskultation av hjärtat, men diagnosen brukar fastställas med en EKG-undersökning. Det finns idag flertalet algoritmer för att detektera arytmin genom att analysera ett EKG. En av de vanligaste metoderna är att undersöka variabiliteten av hjärtrytmen (HRV) och utföra olika sorters statistiska beräkningar som kan upptäcka episoder av förmaksflimmer som avviker från en normal sinusrytm.   I detta projekt har två metoder för att detektera förmaksflimmer utvärderats i Matlab, en baseras på beräkningar av variationskoefficienten och den andra använder sig av logistisk regression. EKG som kommer från databasen Physionet MIT används för att träna och testa modeller av algoritmerna. Innan EKG-signalen kan användas måste den behandlas för att ta bort olika typer av brus och artefakter.   Vid test av algoritmen med variationskoefficienten blev resultatet en sensitivitet på 91,38%, en specificitet på 93,93% och en noggrannhet på 92,92%. För logistisk regression blev sensitiviteten 97,23%, specificiteten 93,79% och noggrannheten 95,39%. Algoritmen med logistisk regression presterade bättre och valdes därför för att implementeras i Java, där uppnåddes en sensitivitet på 91,31%, en specificitet på 93,47% och en noggrannhet på 95,25%.

Abstracts in English, Zulu and Southern Sotho / The advent of Basel II Capital Accord has revolutionised credit risk measurement (CRM) to the extent that the once “perceived riskier bank assets” are now accommodated for lending. The Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) sector has been traditionally perceived as a riskier and unprofitable asset for lending activity by Commercial Banks, in particular. But empirical studies on the implementation of the Basel II internal-ratings-based (IRB) framework have demonstrated that SME credit risk is measurable. Banks are still finding it difficult to forecast SME loan default and to provide credit to the sector that meet Basel’s capital requirements. The thesis proposes to construct an empirical credit risk measurement (CRM) model, specifically for SMEs, to ameliorate the adverse effects of SME credit inaccessibility due to high information asymmetry between financial institutions (FI) and SMEs in Zimbabwe. A well-performing and accurate CRM helps FIs to control their risk exposure through selective granting of credit based on a thorough statistical analysis of historical customer data. This thesis develops a CRM model, built on a statistically random sample, known-good-bad (KGB) sample, which is a better representation of the through-the-door (TTD) population of SME loan applicants. The KGB sample incorporates both accepted and rejected applications, through reject inference (RI). A model-based bound and collapse (BC) reject inference methodology was empirically used to correct selectivity bias inherent in CRM domain. The results have shown great improvement in the classification power and aggregate supply of credit supply to the SME portfolio of the case-studied bank, as evidenced by substantial decrease of bad rates across models developed; from the preliminary model to final model designed for the case-studied bank. The final model was validated using both bad rate, confusion matrix metrics and Area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) curve to assess the classification power of the model within-sample and out-of-sample. The AUROC for the final model (weak model) was found to be 0.9782 whilst bad rate was found to be 14.69%. There was 28.76% improvement in the bad rate in the final model in comparison with the current CRM model being used by the case-studied bank. / Isivumelwano seBasel II Capital Accord sesishintshe indlela yokulinganisa ubungozi bokunikezana ngesikweletu credit risk measurement (CRM) kwaze kwafika ezingeni lapho izimpahla ezazithathwa njengamagugu anobungozi “riskier bank assets” sezimukelwa njengesibambiso sokuboleka imali. Umkhakha wezamaBhizinisi Amancane naSafufusayo, phecelezi, Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) kudala uqondakala njengomkhakha onobungozi obukhulu futhi njengomkhakha ongangenisi inzuzo, ikakhulu njengesibambiso sokubolekwa imali ngamabhange ahwebayo. Kodwa izifundo zocwaningo ezimayelana nokusetshenziswa nokusetshenziswa kwesakhiwo iBasel II internal-ratings-based (IRB) sezikhombisile ukuthi ubungozi bokunikeza isikweletu kumabhizinisi amancane nasafufusayo (SME) sebuyalinganiseka. Yize kunjalo, amabhange asathola ukuthi kusenzima ukubona ngaphambili inkinga yokungabhadeleki kahle kwezikweletu kanye nokunikeza isikweletu imikhakha enemigomo edingekayo yezimali kaBasel. Lolu cwaningo beluphakamisa ukwakha uhlelo imodeli ephathekayo yokulinganisa izinga lobungozi bokubolekisa ngemali (CRM) kwihlelo lokuxhasa ngezimali ama-SME, okuyihlelo elilawulwa yiziko lezimali ezweni laseZimbabwe. Imodeli ye-CRM esebenza kahle futhi eshaya khona inceda amaziko ezimali ukugwema ubungozi bokunikezana ngezikweletu ngokusebenzisa uhlelo lokunikeza isikweletu ababoleki abakhethekile, lokhu kususelwa ohlelweni oluhlaziya amanani edatha engumlando wekhasimende. Imodeli ye-CRM ephakanyisiwe yaqala yakhiwa ngohlelo lwamanani, phecelezi istatistically random sample, okuluphawu olungcono olumele uhlelo lwe through-the-door (TTD) population lokukhetha abafakizicelo zokubolekwa imali bama SME, kanti lokhu kuxuba zona zombili izicelo eziphumelele kanye nezingaphumelelanga. Indlela yokukhetha abafakizicelo, phecelezi model-based bound-and-collapse (BC) reject-inference methodology isetshenzisiwe ukulungisa indlela yokukhetha ngokukhetha ngendlela yokucwasa kwisizinda seCRM. Imiphumela iye yakhombisa intuthuko enkulu mayelana namandla okwehlukanisa kanye nokunikezwa kwezikweletu kuma SME okungamamabhange enziwe ucwaningo lotho., njengoba lokhu kufakazelwa ukuncipha okukhulu kwe-bad rate kuwo wonke amamodeli athuthukisiwe. Imodeli yokuqala kanye neyokugcina zazidizayinelwe ibhange. Imodeli yokugcina yaqinisekiswa ngokusebenzisa zombili indlela isikweletu esingagculisi kanye negrafu ye-Area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) ukulinganisa ukwehlukaniswa kwamandla emodeli engaphakathi kwesampuli nangaphandle kwesampuli. Uhlelo lwe-AUROC lwemodeli yokugcina (weak model) lwatholakala ukuthi luyi 0.9782, kanti ibad rate yatholakala ukuthi yenza i-14.69%. Kwaba khona ukuthuthuka nge-28.76% kwi-bad rate kwimodeli yokugcina uma iqhathaniswa nemodeli yamanje iCRM model ukuba isetshenziswe yibhange elithile. / Basel II Capital Accord e fetotse tekanyo ya kotsi ya mokitlane (credit risk measurement (CRM)) hoo “thepa e kotsi ya dibanka” ka moo e neng e bonwa ka teng, e seng e fuwa sebaka dikadimong. Lekala la Dikgwebo tse Nyane le tse Mahareng (SME) le bonwa ka tlwaelo jwalo ka lekala le kotsi e hodimo le senang ditswala bakeng sa ditshebetso tsa dikadimo haholo ke dibanka tsa kgwebo. Empa dipatlisiso tse thehilweng hodima se bonweng kapa se etsahetseng tsa tshebetso ya moralo wa Basel II internal-ratings-based (IRB) di supile hore kotsi ya mokitlane ya SME e kgona ho lekanngwa. Leha ho le jwalo, dibanka di ntse di thatafallwa ke ho bonelapele palo ya ditlholeho tsa ho lefa tsa diSME le ho fana ka mokitla lekaleng leo le kgotsofatsang ditlhoko tsa Basel tsa ditjhelete. Phuputso ena e ne sisinya ho etsa tekanyo ya se bonwang ho mmotlolo wa kotsi ya mokitlane (CRM) tshebetsong ya phano ya tjhelete ya diSME e etswang ke setsi sa ditjhelete (FI) ho la Zimbabwe. Mmotlolo o sebetsang hantle hape o fanang ka dipalo tse nepahetseng o dusa diFI hore di laole pepeso ya tsona ho kotsi ka phano e kgethang ya mokitlane, e thehilweng hodima manollo ya dipalopalo ya dintlha tsa histori ya bareki. Mmotlolo o sisingwang wa CRM o hlahisitswe ho tswa ho sampole e sa hlophiswang, e leng pontsho e betere ya setjhaba se ikenelang le monyako (TTD) ya batho bao e kang bakadimi ba tjhelete ho diSME, hobane e kenyelletsa bakopi ba amohetsweng le ba hannweng. Mokgwatshebetso wa bound-and-collapse (BC) reject-inference o kentswe tshebetsong ho nepahatsa tshekamelo ya kgetho e leng teng ho lekala la CRM. Diphetho tsena di bontshitse ntlafalo e kgolo ho matla a tlhophiso le palohare ya phano ya mokitlane ho diSME tsa banka eo ho ithutilweng ka yona, jwalo ka ha ho pakilwe ke ho phokotseho ya direite tse mpe ho pharalla le dimmotlolo tse hlahisitsweng. Mmotlolo wa ho qala le wa ho qetela e ile ya ralwa bakeng sa banka. Mmotlolo wa ho qetela o ile wa netefatswa ka tshebediso ya bobedi reite e mpe le mothinya wa Area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) ho lekanya matla a kenyo mekgahlelong a mmotlolo kahare ho sampole le kantle ho yona. AUROC bakeng sa mmotlo wa ho qetela (mmotlolo o fokotseng) e fumanwe e le 0.9782, ha reite e mpe e fumanwe e le 14.69%. Ho bile le ntlafalo ya 28.76% ho reite e mpe bakeng sa mmotlolo wa ho qetela ha ho bapiswa le mmotlolo wa CRM ha o sebediswa bankeng yona eo. / Graduate School of Business Leadership / D.B.L.