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[pt] O principal objetivo desta dissertação é realizar a previsão da reserva IBNR. Para isto foi desenvolvido um modelo estatístico de distribuições combinadas que busca uma adequada representação dos dados. A reserva IBNR, sigla em inglês para Incurred But Not Reported, representa o montante que as seguradoras precisam ter para pagamentos de sinistros atrasados, que já ocorreram no passado, mas ainda não foram avisados à seguradora até a data presente. Dada a importância desta reserva, diversos métodos para estimação da reserva IBNR já foram propostos. Um dos métodos mais utilizado pelas seguradoras é o Método Chain Ladder, que se baseia em triângulos run-off, que é o agrupamento dos dados conforme data de ocorrência e aviso de sinistro. No entanto o agrupamento dos dados faz com que informações importantes sejam perdidas. Esta dissertação baseada em outros artigos e trabalhos que consideram o não agrupamento dos dados, propõe uma nova modelagem para os dados não agrupados. O modelo proposto combina a distribuição do atraso no aviso da ocorrência, representada aqui pela distribuição log-normal truncada (pois só há informação até a última data observada); a distribuição da quantidade total de sinistros ocorridos num dado período, modelada pela distribuição Poisson; e a distribuição do número de sinistros ocorridos em um dado período e avisados até a última data observada, que será caracterizada por uma distribuição Binomial. Por fim, a quantidade de sinistros IBNR foi estimada por método e pelo Chain Ladder e avaliou-se a capacidade de previsão de ambos. Apesar da distribuição de atrasos do modelo proposto se adequar bem aos dados, o modelo proposto obteve resultados inferiores ao Chain Ladder em termos de previsão. / [en] The main objective of this dissertation is to predict the IBNR reserve. For this, it was developed a statistical model of combined distributions looking for a new distribution that fits the data well. The IBNR reserve, short for Incurred But Not Reported, represents the amount that insurers need to have to pay for the claims that occurred in the past but have not been reported until the present date. Given the importance of this reserve, several methods for estimating this reserve have been proposed. One of the most used methods for the insurers is the Chain Ladder, which is based on run-off triangles; this is a format of grouping the data according to the occurrence and the reported date. However this format causes the lost of important information. This dissertation, based on other articles and works that consider the data not grouped, proposes a new model for the non-aggregated data. The proposed model combines the delay in the claim report distribution represented by a log normal truncated (because there is only information until the last observed date); the total amount of claims incurred in a given period modeled by a Poisson distribution and the number of claims occurred in a certain period and reported until the last observed date characterized by a binomial distribution. Finally, the IBNR reserve was estimated by this method and by the chain ladder and the prediction capacity of both methods will be evaluated. Although the delay distribution seems to fit the data well, the proposed model obtained inferior results to the Chain Ladder in terms of forecast.

The aim of the work is to design anti-erosion and flood protection in the area of interest KÚ Lukavec to the current state and responding to climate change. At the same time, it is necessary to assess the degree of erosion threat to the soil and analyze runoff conditions in critical areas. The introductory part summarizes information about the studied area and methods for calculation. The erosion analysis is processed in the design part and suitable anti-erosion and anti-flood measures will be proposed. DesQ-MaxQ software was used to calculate the runoff conditions, graphical outputs and analysis of erosion conditions were created in the ArcGIS environment.

L’objectif de cette thèse est de caractériser les Rejets Urbains par Temps de Pluie (RUTP) et leur flux au niveau des exutoires d’eaux pluviales de trois sous-bassins majeurs de l'agglomération orléanaise. Pour cela des prélèvements ponctuels d’eau ont été effectués et un modèle conceptuel a été utilisé. Les trois sous-bassins : La Corne (463 ha), l'Egoutier (2080 ha) et Ormes (2256 ha) ont des occupations du sol différentes.D’une manière générale, la conductivité, la demande chimique en oxygène (DCO), la demande biochimique en oxygène (DBO5 et la DBO28), le carbone organique dissout (COD), l'azote total(NT), et les concentrations en anions et cations majeurs étaient plus élevés par temps sec que par temps de pluie indiquant un effet de dilution par les précipitations. Il a été mis en évidence un mélange des eaux pluviales avec des eaux usées dans le sous bassin d’Ormes. L’occupation des sols et les activités anthropiques influencent de manière significative la qualité du ruissellement. Par exemple, dans le sous-bassin de l’Egoutier, la présence d’une zone imperméable (industries et habitations) importante (40% de la surface) est responsable d’une augmentation des paramètresDBO5, DBO28, COD et NT.Les flux aux exutoires des différents paramètres de qualité de l’eau ont été évalués et comparés à ceux issus des quatre principales stations d’épuration (STEP) et à ceux de la Loire. La charge destrois sous-bassins urbains représente environ 166,61% de la charge des quatre STEP. Les trois sous bassins ont un faible impact sur la Loire en termes de flux annuels (environ 1,62% pour les MES par temps de pluie).Deux versions d’un modèle conceptuel dit d'accumulation/lavage-transport ont été évaluées pour estimer les flux de ruissellement des polluants ; la version classique et une version modifiée dans laquelle le paramètre accumulation des polluants a une forme logarithmique. Les performances des modèles étaient acceptables pour les MES et la DCO. Les coefficients de corrélation étaient supérieurs à 90% pour le sous bassin de l’Egoutier, par exemple. Pour les éléments traces métalliques en phase particulaire, la corrélation avec l’expérience était bonne également. D’une manière générale, lorsqu'un flux mesuré était inférieur à 1 kg.ha-1, les modèles n’étaient plus applicables.Des premiers essais de simulation de la qualité et la quantité de RUTP ont été effectués à partir de MIKE URBAN, qui équipe les deux logiciels de modélisation MOUSE et SWMM. Les hydrogrammes ont indiqué que le débit maximum obtenu avec SWMM était toujours inférieur à celui obtenu avec MOUSE. La qualité de l’eau (masse de MES) était toujours plus fortement impactée par le lessivage des MES dans le modèle MOUSE que dans SWMM.Ce travail constitue la première étape du travail d'évaluation de RUTP pour l'Agglomération orléanaise. Il constitue une base solide pour un futur programme de surveillance continue. / The objective of this thesis was to characterize urban runoff water at the level of stormwater outletson three major urban sub-basins of the Orléans agglomeration, covering land areas ranging in size from463 to 2257 ha and with contrasted land use. 11 individual rain events were sampled at runoff outletsbetween April 2015 and June 2017 and 10 campaigns were also carried out in dry weather.In general, it was observed that the conductivity, chemical oxygen demand (COD), biochemicaloxygen demand (BOD5 and BOD28), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total nitrogen (NT), anions andmajor cations were found to be higher in dry weather conditions than in rainy weather. These resultsindicate a dilution effect due to precipitation.A mixture of rainwater and wastewater was also identified in the sub-basin of Ormes. Land use andhuman activities in the sub-basin studied were found to significantly influence the quality of the resultedrunoff from rainfall events. For example, in the Egouttier sub-basin 2, the presence of a large imperviouszone (industrial and residential, 40% of the surface area) was responsible for an increase in the parametersBOD5, BOD28, COD and NT.The flows at the outlets of the different water quality parameters were evaluated and compared withthose from the four main wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) and those from the Loire. The estimatedloads of the three sub-urban basins accounts for approximately 166.61% of the load of the four WWTP.The three sub-basins have a small impact on the Loire in terms of annual flows (about 1.62% for wetweather case).Two versions of a conceptual model of accumulation / washoff were evaluated to estimate pollutantrunoff; the classical version and a modified version in which the pollutant accumulation parameter has alogarithmic form. The performances of the models were found acceptable for the MES and the COD. TheNash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients were found as 0.84 and 0.85 for the two versions at the Egouttier subbasin.For trace elements in particulate phase, the correlation with the experimental measured value wasfound good as well. In general, when a measured flow was less than 1 kg.ha-1, the modified model was nolonger applicable.The first simulation tests of the quality and quantity of urban runoff were carried out with MIKEURBAN, which equips both MOUSE and SWMM modeling software. For water quantity, the hydrographsindicated that the maximum flow obtained with SWMM was always lower than that obtained with MOUSE.For water quality, TSS mass was still more strongly impacted by the leaching of TSS in the MOUSE modelthan in the SWMM model.This work can be considered as the first step of the evaluation work of RUTP for the Orléansagglomeration. It provides a solid foundation for a future monitoring program.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / Underground septic systems thrive or fail based on the relationship with their local environment. This paper explores ways environmental variables such as soil type, tree roots, degree of slope, and impervious surfaces affect on-site wastewater treatment systems. It also discusses the effects each of these variables may have on a septic system, and the resulting impact a compromised system may have on the surrounding environment. This research focuses on an approximately 20 square mile area of central Washington Township in Marion County, Indiana. This area of central Indiana contains a large septic system owning population in a sampling of different environments such as wooded areas, hilly areas, and a variety of different soil types.