[pt] A reserva IBNR é uma reserva de suma importância para as seguradoras. Seu cálculo tem sido realizado por métodos, em sua grande maioria, determinísticos, tradicionalmente aplicados a informações de sinistros agrupadas num formato particular intitulado triangulo de run-off. Esta forma de cálculo foi muito usada por décadas por sua simplicidade e pela limitação da capacidade de processamento computacional existente. Hoje, com o grande avanço dessa capacidade, não haveria necessidade de deixar de investigar informações relevantes que podem ser perdidas com agrupamento dos dados. Muitas são as deficiências dos métodos tradicionais apontadas na literatura e o uso de informação detalhada tem sido apontado por alguns artigos como a fonte para superação dessas deficiências. Outra busca constante nas metodologias propostas para cálculo da IBNR é pela obtenção de boas medidas de precisão das estimativas obtidas por eles. Neste ponto, sobre o uso de dados detalhados, há a expectativa de obtenção de medidas de precisão mais justas, já que se tem mais dados. Inspirada em alguns artigos já divulgados com propostas para modelagem desses dados não agrupados esta dissertação propõe um novo modelo, avaliando sua capacidade de predição e ganho de conhecimento a respeito do processo de ocorrência e aviso de sinistros frente ao que se pode obter a partir dos métodos tradicionais aplicados à dados de quantidade para obtenção da quantidade de sinistros IBNR e sua distribuição. / [en] The IBNR reserve is a reserve of paramount importance for insurers. Its calculation has been accomplished by methods, mostly, deterministic, traditionally applied to claims grouped information in a particular format called run-off triangle . This method of calculation was very adequate for decades because of its simplicity and the limited computational processing capacity existing in the past. Today, with the breakthrough of this capacity, no waiver to investigating relevant information that may be lost with grouping data would be need. Many flaws of the traditional methods has been mentioned in the literature and the use of detailed information has been pointed as a form of overcoming these deficiencies. Another frequent aim in methodologies proposed for the calculation of IBNR is get a good measure of the accuracy of the estimates obtained by them and that is another expectation about the use of detailed data, since if you got more data you could get better measures. Inspired by some articles already published with proposals for modeling such not grouped data, this dissertation proposes a new model and evaluate its predictive ability and gain of knowledge about the process of occurrence and notice of the claim against that one can get from the traditional methods applied to data of amount of claims for obtain the amount of IBNR claims and their distribution.

Urbanisering och klimatförändringar i form av intensivare nederbörd är idag tvåproblemområden som båda påverkar hur samhället hanterar dagvatten, särskilt när dekombineras. Syftet med denna uppsats är därmed att undersöka hur dessa aspekter påverkar dagvattenhanteringen och vad som händer när det går fel vid planering och byggnation. Utöver det är målet att försöka identifiera områden som riskerar översvämmas på grund av detta. Till hjälp har en litteraturstudie gjorts samt platsbesök, intervjuer och analysering av flertalet kartor. Arbetet handlar om och utgår från Gustavslund, ett område i Vallentuna kommun. Här har det kommit fram att vid byggnation har dagvattnet inte hanterats korrekt och lett till översvämningar på äldre fastigheter. Dagvattensystemet och dess utloppspunkter är i grunden det störstaproblemet. Det beror delvis på felaktig planering från början i samband med lösningar som inte fungerat, men även dåligt ansvarstagande från kommunens sida. Vid planeringen utgicks det från att vardera fastighet skulle ta hand om vattnet själva med hjälp av lokalt omhändertagande av dagvatten (LOD), men detta har inte genomförts. Dagvattnet leds till ett fåtal fastigheter där det i dagsläget har svårt att föras vidare. Detta är på grund av klena trummor under närliggande väg som lutar fel samt ett pumpsystem och diken med dålig kapacitet. Även ledningar, både privata och gemensamma, med dålig prestanda bidrar till problematiken. Baserat påGustavslund kan ett par slutsatser dras i ett försök att identifiera liknande riskområden.Indikationer kan innebära bland annat att privata ledningar finns som inte kan hantera mängden vatten eller att stora höjdskillnader förekommer och leder till naturliga vattensamlingar ibostadsområden. Förhoppningarna med denna rapport är att snabbare hitta problemområden och åtgärda dessa innan problem med översvämningar uppstår. / Urbanization and climate change in the shape of more intense rainfall are today two problematic areas that both affect how society handles stormwater, especially when they are combined. The purpose of this essay is to examine how these two aspects contribute to stormwatermanagement and what happens when it goes poorly when planning and building. On top of that the goal is to identify areas that risk flooding because of this. To help with this a literature study has been done as well as a site visit, interviews and analysis of several maps. This study isabout and based upon Gustavslund, an area within Vallentuna municipality. It’s been known that the stormwater treatment when building here has not been done correctly which has led tofloodings at older properties. The system for run-off water and its outlet points is mainly the biggest problem. This is partly due to poor planning in combination with solutions that did not work, but also bad responsibility taking from the municipality. When planning it was assumedthat each household was to handle the run-off water on their own, but this has not been done. The water ends up on a few properties where it can barely keep going. This is because of feeble road drums turned the wrong way but also a pump system and ditches with low capacity. Also pipelines, both private and communal, with poor dimensions contribute to the problem. Based on Gustavslund, a few conclusions can be drawn to try and identify similar areas at risk.Indications can for instance involve private pipes that cannot handle the amount of water or big height differences in the terrain that leads to places where water gathers naturally in residential areas. Hopefully this report will help find these problematic areas faster and remedy thesebefore problems with flooding occur.

The aim of this thesis is to describe calculation methods for variability esti- mation of claims reserve in non-life insurance. The thesis focuses on three main categories of models: Mack's stochastic Chain-Ladder, generalized linear models and bootstrap. Both the theoretical and also the empirical parts are included. Empirical part is devoted to application of all the models described above on both real and simulated data. 1

<p>The project was conducted on a small-scale catchment at Goedertrou in the Riebeek- Kasteel district. The focus of this study was to address some of the hydrological processes active in the research catchment, namely infiltration, run-off and sediment mobilisation on different soil types. It was done to investigate the origin of Berg River pollutants. To answer the overall question about what influence the natural salt load of the Berg River, a number of subprojects have been identified, one of which is to understand the hydrological processes in the soil mantle and vadose zone. Hence, the study aimed to answer the research questions mentioned and discussed in section 1.3 of Chapter 1. Considering the results, it could be suggested that decayed root systems from the rows of plants, soil cracks, small channels and openings created by small animals, as well as slope orientation and, therefore, soil composition, all played a major role in influencing the ability of the soil to absorb the simulated rainfall. In this study, the factors that influenced run-off are micro topography, soil moisture, root system, animal activities in soil profile, soil crack dimensions and the hydraulic conductivity. The main factors that played a major role to influence sediments mobilisation are strongly believed to be the micro topography within the ring, slope gradient and length, vegetation cover and rainfall-simulation intensity. After using different techniques, the results show that farmers must be aware that with storm rainfall, particles smaller than 65 &mu / m are subject to mobilisation. It is important to let land-users know that they need proper and appropriate methods for land-use.</p>

Entre las actividades potencialmente contaminantes del suelo se encuentra la industria de obtención de cinc, que, a lo largo de la historia, ha generado cantidades importantes de residuos con elevados contenidos de metales pesados depositados en las inmediaciones de sus instalaciones hasta épocas recientes. Después de la promulgación del RD 9/2005, dicha contaminación y el riesgo que conlleva deberán ser evaluados en los diferentes emplazamientos. El objetivo de esta tesis es el estudio de la movilización natural y forzada de plomo, cadmio y arsénico bajo distintas condiciones medioambientales en residuos procedentes de la hidrometalurgia del cinc y en suelos industriales contaminados por los productos de alteración de dichos residuos, así como la relación que existe entre la movilización y las características químicas y mineralógicas de los mismos, ya que el conocimiento de estos materiales y de las condiciones de movilización de los metales estudiados puede ayudar al estudio metodológico de evaluación de la contaminación así como al análisis de riesgos que permita la toma de decisiones ante la posible recuperación de tales terrenos. / Among the industries that mar be considered potential contaminators of the soil is that dedicated to obtaining zinc, which, during its time, has generated substantial quantities ofheavy metal-containing wastes which, until recently, were simply dumped in the irnmediate environs. Following the Spanish law RD 9/2005, the resulting contamination and any associated risks have to be evaluated. The object ofthis thesis was to study the natural and forced mobilization oflead, cadmium and arsenic in a variety of environmental conditions in wastes resulting from the zinc hydrometallurgy indus1ry and in soils contaminated by fue alteration products of these wastes, together with fue relation between such mobilization and fue chemical and mineralogical characteristics of the same. Knowledge of these material s and of the metal mobilization conditions studied will help in the methodological study of contamination evaluation and in the analysis of risks. The findings will, it is hoped, help in the making decisions that need to be taken to recover the affected soils.

<p>The project was conducted on a small-scale catchment at Goedertrou in the Riebeek- Kasteel district. The focus of this study was to address some of the hydrological processes active in the research catchment, namely infiltration, run-off and sediment mobilisation on different soil types. It was done to investigate the origin of Berg River pollutants. To answer the overall question about what influence the natural salt load of the Berg River, a number of subprojects have been identified, one of which is to understand the hydrological processes in the soil mantle and vadose zone. Hence, the study aimed to answer the research questions mentioned and discussed in section 1.3 of Chapter 1. Considering the results, it could be suggested that decayed root systems from the rows of plants, soil cracks, small channels and openings created by small animals, as well as slope orientation and, therefore, soil composition, all played a major role in influencing the ability of the soil to absorb the simulated rainfall. In this study, the factors that influenced run-off are micro topography, soil moisture, root system, animal activities in soil profile, soil crack dimensions and the hydraulic conductivity. The main factors that played a major role to influence sediments mobilisation are strongly believed to be the micro topography within the ring, slope gradient and length, vegetation cover and rainfall-simulation intensity. After using different techniques, the results show that farmers must be aware that with storm rainfall, particles smaller than 65 &mu / m are subject to mobilisation. It is important to let land-users know that they need proper and appropriate methods for land-use.</p>

L’étude a pour objectif de déterminer la qualité des eaux de surface sous différentes conditions climatiques et pratiques de gestion des eaux de surface. Trois sites ont étés choisis pour: (1) la rivière Jalle de Blanquefort, (2) le lac de Bordeaux, France et (3) la rivière Pasig aux Philippines. Les sites français présentent des collecteurs d'eau qui se déversent directement dans les eaux de surface. La rivière Pasig sert de collecteur d'eaux usées en l’absence de stations de traitement des eaux usées et collectées. Au cours des campagnes de mesure, il a été possible de suivre l’impact de la variabilité climatique (pluviométrie) et d’événements aléatoires sur la qualité chimiques (éléments traces métalliques et polluants organiques) des eaux ; en combinant échantillonnage classique et par capteurs passifs. Les propriétés physico-chimiques de l'eau ainsi que les caractéristiques des particules et l'utilisation d'analyses statistiques permettent de préciser le comportement des molécules détectées et de décrire l’evolution hydrochimique des eaux de surface urbaines et estuariennes vis-à-vis d’aléas climatiques contrastés. / The study aimed to assess the water quality of the surface water in differingclimate conditions and management practices. Three interesting sites were chosen, (1)Jalle River and (2) Bordeaux Lac both in France and the (3) Pasig River in thePhilippines. The French sites have rainfall and run-off collectors that directly dischargewater to the water bodies. Pasig River, on the other hand, becomes a waste collector aswaste management and treatment plant are lacking. Trace metals and organics(pesticides, herbicides, pharmaceuticals and drugs) were measured. Conventional andpassive sampling approches were employed. The mass fluxes were obtained in order tocalculate the pollution transport. Physico-chemical properties and the particlecharacteristics, integrating statistical analyses, facilitated in explaining the behavior of themeasured molecules and describing the hydrological system in relation to climatevariability.

The swine and cattle activities are of great economic and social importance in Brazil in the southern region, but generate of large volumes of waste, that when applied to the soil can be mineralized and part of the nutrients released can be absorbed by plants or transferred by runoff or percolation. The aimed of this study was to evaluate the rate of mineralization, availability and transferences of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) for the solution runoff and percolation in the profile in a Sandy Typic Hapludalf under application of nutrient sources. Two experiments were carried out at the Federal University of Santa Maria (UFSM), in Santa Maria (RS). For the experiment 1, soil samples of a Sandy Typic Hapludalf were collected in October 2010, prepared and carried the following treatments: soil, soil + pig slurry, soil + deep-litter; soil + cattle slurry and soil + mineral fertilizer. These soils were incubated during 0, 20, 35, 58, 73 and 123 days and then, samples were collected and submitted to analysis of mineral-N (N-NH4 + e N-NO3 -), P extracted by exchanged anion resin and K by exchanged cation resin. The experiment 2 was installed in 2004, at the experimental area of the Department of Soils of UFSM. The treatments were: control, pig slurry, deeplitter, cattle slurry and mineral fertilizer. Each source of manure has been applied to provide the N demand of corn (Zea mays L.) and oat (Avena strigosa Schreb.). From May 2010 to February 2011, samples of runoff and percolated in the profile solution were collected; the volume was measured and the content mineral- N (N-NH4 + e N-NO3 -), P e K in the solution was analyzed. The highest rate of N mineralization occurred in soil under the application of pig slurry and increased availability of P and K was observed with the application of litter of pigs. The greatest transfer of N, P and K occurred in the soil under the application of deeplitter / A suinocultura e a bovinocultura são atividades de grande importância econômica e social na região sul do Brasil, mas geram grande volume de dejetos, que quando aplicados ao solo podem ser mineralizados e parte dos nutrientes liberados podem ser absorvidos pelas plantas ou transferidos por escoamento superficial ou percolação. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi avaliar a taxa de mineralização, a disponibilidade e a transferência de nitrogênio (N), fósforo (P) e potássio (K) pela solução escoada na superfície do solo e percolada no perfil do solo, em um Argissolo Vermelho submetido à aplicação de fontes minerais e orgânicas de nutrientes. Foram conduzidos dois experimentos na Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM), em Santa Maria (RS). No experimento 1, para avaliação da disponibilidade de nutrientes no solo, amostras de um Argissolo Vermelho foram coletadas em outubro de 2010, preparadas e aplicados os seguintes tratamentos: solo; solo + dejetos líquidos de suínos; solo + cama sobreposta de suínos; solo + dejetos líquidos de bovinos e solo + adubação mineral. As amostras foram incubadas por 0, 20, 35, 58, 73 e 123 dias, coletadas e submetidas à análise de N-mineral (N-NH4 + e N-NO3 -), de P extraído pela Resina Trocadora de Ânions (RTA) e de K pela Resina Trocadora de Cátions (RTC). No experimento 2, para a avaliação das transferências de nutrientes foi instalado em 2004 na área experimental do Departamento de Solos da UFSM os tratamentos: testemunha, dejetos líquidos de suínos, cama sobreposta de suínos, dejetos líquidos de bovinos e adubação mineral. Cada fonte de nutriente foi aplicada para fornecer a demanda de N do milho e da aveia preta. Entre os meses de maio de 2010 a fevereiro de 2011 foram coletadas amostras da solução escoada na superfície do solo e percolada no perfil e, em seguida foi quantificado o volume e, logo depois foi analisado os teores de N mineral (N-NH4 + e N-NO3 -), P e K na solução. A maior taxa de mineralização de N aconteceu no solo submetido à aplicação de dejetos líquidos de suínos e a maior disponibilidade de P e K foi observada com a aplicação de cama sobreposta de suínos. As maiores transferências de N, P e K ocorreram no solo submetido à aplicação de cama sobreposta de suínos.

Magister Scientiae - MSc / The project was conducted on a small-scale catchment at Goedertrou in the Riebeek- Kasteel district. The focus of this study was to address some of the hydrological processes active in the research catchment, namely infiltration, run-off and sediment mobilisation on different soil types. It was done to investigate the origin of Berg River pollutants. To answer the overall question about what influence the natural salt load of the Berg River, a number of subprojects have been identified, one of which is to understand the hydrological processes in the soil mantle and vadose zone. Hence, the study aimed to answer the research questions mentioned and discussed in section 1.3 of Chapter 1. Considering the results, it could be suggested that decayed root systems from the rows of plants, soil cracks, small channels and openings created by small animals, as well as slope orientation and, therefore, soil composition, all played a major role in influencing the ability of the soil to absorb the simulated rainfall. In this study, the factors that influenced run-off are micro topography, soil moisture, root system, animal activities in soil profile, soil crack dimensions and the hydraulic conductivity. The main factors that played a major role to influence sediments mobilisation are strongly believed to be the micro topography within the ring, slope gradient and length, vegetation cover and rainfall-simulation intensity. After using different techniques, the results show that farmers must be aware that with storm rainfall, particles smaller than 65 μm are subject to mobilisation. It is important to let land-users know that they need proper and appropriate methods for land-use. / South Africa

The thesis is about the arrangement of the last known claim values into the run-off triangle. This diagram is used in non-life insurance, mainly in methods for calculating technical claims reserves. Individual methods will be described in detail and consecutively applied on real data. The real data are a set of data with long tail. We are differentiating between easier deterministic and stochastic methods, which are more demanding for calculation. The results will be compared by basic statistical parameter of the analyzed data and at the end the best method will be chosen for the data.