<p dir="ltr">The Farm Service Agency's Guaranteed Loan Program supports eligible lender's ability to provide credit to farms who would otherwise not qualify for loans by guaranteeing up to 95% of principal and interest if the farmer defaults. The first chapter examines the degree to which bank characteristics influence FSA guaranteed loan rates paid by farmers. We leverage the unique characteristics of a panel of FSA guaranteed loans that include both borrower and lender information. Relative to pooled OLS, our preferred fixed-effects regression specification suggests that both time-varying and invariant lender effects are a significant determinant of FSA guaranteed loan rates. Further, when controlling for lender-effects, the significance of borrower characteristics largely diminish. These findings are consistent with prior studies of broader lending market interaction. This is the first study to examine FSA guaranteed loans which accounts for bank-level variation in lending terms. The findings may be of interest to policymakers, program administrators, lenders, and farmers.</p><p dir="ltr">Bankers’ expectations have been shown to provide reasonable forecasts of land value. In the second chapter, we test the informativeness of bankers’ expectations in predicting FSA guaranteed loan application volumes. Once again, we leverage proprietary administrative data from the FSA and, this time, pair it with survey data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago to evaluate bankers’ forecasts. Results show that bankers’ forecasts are outperformed by naïve models, and including bankers’ expectations does not improve predictive models. Once again, these results will be of interest to FSA program administrators, lenders, and potential borrowers.</p><p dir="ltr">The study of risk is an important thread of farm management research as agriculture is an industry with many sources of risk. In the third chapter, we link broad measures of policy risk in the form of Equity Market Volatility trackers to farmer’s perceptions of risk and uncertainty. We consider disagreement in ex ante sentiment questions to measure farmer risk. Through a series of pairwise VARs, we show which sources of risk matriculate as concerns for farmers measured by uncertainty in the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. Increases in tax policy, trade policy and infectious disease uncertainty are found to Granger-cause movement in farmer sentiment uncertainty.</p>

Fruit set in cucurbit crops such as watermelon is entirely dependent upon pollinators, which makes them an important aspect of grower management. This reliance on pollinators means that growers must consider them when making pest management decisions, especially when using pesticides, which can have a negative impact on pollinators. Thus, pest management in watermelon production faces a potential trade-off between pests and pollinators. The ways in which growers manage this trade-off could have a large impact on the communities of both groups and the yield of the crop. <br>

An exploration of the creation and use of farmers' commonly used "rules of thumb" is required to conceptualize farmers' decision making processes. While farmers face complex situations, particularly when subsistence is an issue, they do appear to use simple rules in their decision making. To date inadequate attention has been given to understanding their reasoning processes in creating the rules, so this study traces the origins of farmers' beliefs, and extracts the decisive and dynamic elements in their decision making systems to provide this understanding. The analysis was structured by using a model based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Modifications included recognizing a bargaining process (BP) and other decision stimuli to represent socio-cultural influences and sources of perception, respectively. Two analyses based on the Personal Construct Theory (PCT) and the Ethnographic Decision Tree Modelling (EDTM) were also applied to help elaborate the farmers' cognitive process and actual decision criteria. The method involved interviews in two villages in Lamongan Regency in East Java Province of Indonesia, where the farmers adopted an improved paddy-prawn system ("pandu"). The results highlighted that farmers use rational strategies, and that socio-cultural factors influence decision making. This was represented by interactions between the farmers' perceptions, their bargaining effort, and various background factors. The TPB model revealed that the farmers' perceptions about the potential of "pandu", and the interaction with their "significant others", influenced their intention to adopt "pandu". The farmers appeared to prefer a steady income and familiar practices at the same time as obtaining new information, mainly from their peers. When "pandu" failed to show sufficiently profitable results, most farmers decided to ignore or discontinue "pandu". This became the biggest disincentive to a wide and sustainable adoption. However, the PCT analysis showed that part of this problem also stemmed from the farmers' lack of resources and knowledge. The farmers' restrictive conditions also led them to seek socio-cultural and practical support for their actions. This was highlighted by a bargaining process (BP) that integrated what the farmers had learned, and believed, into their adoption behaviour. The BP also captured the farmers' communication strategies when dealing with "pandu" as its adoption affected resource allocation within the family and required cooperation with neighbours. The PCT and EDTM analyses also confirmed how the BP accommodated different sets of decision criteria to form different adoption behaviours. Such a process indicated the importance of considering the adoption decision and the relevant changes resulting from the farmers' cognition. This provided a more dynamic and realistic description of the farmers' decision-making process than has previously been attempted. Overall, the results suggested that semi-commercial farmers need to know, and confirm, that a new technology is significantly superior to the existing system, and can provide a secure income. The introduction of a new technology should use a participatory approach allowing negotiation, conflict mitigation and the creation of consensus among the relevant parties. This can be supported through better access to knowledge, information and financing. A specific and well-targeted policy intervention may also be needed to accommodate the diversity in the farmers' ways of learning and making decisions. Ways to improve the current analytical approaches are also suggested.

This project investigated the business, environmental and social sustainability of dairy farms that include dairy support land. Seventeen farmers were interviewed using Yin’s case study method (Yin, 2003). The interviewees were selected from a list provided during a series of focus groups done with rural professionals prior to continuing with the main body of the research. Those interviewed saw that the primary role of dairy support land is to protect the dairy farm from external factors. Dairy farms are vulnerable to externalities due to high fixed costs and the relationship between cow condition and milk production. The ability of dairy support land to manage externalities relates to quantity of feed grown, therefore feed grown is perceived as the most appropriate measure of performance. For dairy support land to be sustainable, it must be well resourced. On a fully resourced DSL unit, there will be time to plan and carry out essential tasks and environmentally important developments such as riparian fences and stockwater systems are likely to be in place. If the dairy support land unit is not fully resourced it will become a liability to the overall system as the supply of feed becomes unreliable, cows calve in poor condition and dairy farm staff and management are overextended. Poorly resourced dairy support land is also unlikely to have environmentally friendly developments in place. The case studies also demonstrated that the fundamentals of sustainability and practice remain constant across a variety of soil and climatic conditions in Canterbury and Southland.

Water is both a human right and a valuable commodity. Access to water for the rural poor is an international development concern that has been highlighted by the Millennium Development Goals adopted at the Millennium Summit in 2000 in Dublin, Ireland. South Africa's Free Basic Water policy is the government's response to assuring access to water for all - especially those who cannot pay. The policy, however, is required to work within an economic framework that promotes cost recovery and privatisation. The Free Basic Water Policy was officially implemented in July 2001. The policy was rolled out in most urban areas on or near this date. However, in rural areas it has proven much more difficult, and there are many areas that have not yet seen the implementation of Free Basic Water (FBW). This is partly due to varying financial, technical, political and logistical problems at the local and district municipality level. This research investigates the current situation in rural municipalities, looking specifically at FBW policy, institutional arrangements, operation and maintenance costs, cost per capita and affordability in relation to the Equitable Share allocations. Five case studies - compiled through interviews, document analyses, Participatory Rural Appraisal, and workshops provide a broad scale research base from which to analyse the current implementation of FBW in rural municipalities and ascertain whether this policy is affordable at this level. Water Service Authorities (WSA) are at varying levels of implementation, with few having a fully operational policy that is reaching rural areas. A costing exercise revealed that the service delivery price of water varies, but does follow a trend. From this trend a benchmark cost per capita of R5.84/month was determined. This price, although low, is not currently affordable in some municipalities due to insufficient government grants from National Treasury. These grants are fundamental to the sustainability of FBW and the situation must be resolved if FBW is to reach its target market - the poorest of the poor. The mixed success in the implementation of Free Basic Water in rural areas of South Africa should not be taken as indicative of future trends. As the local government transition to newly devolved powers and functions is completed, the capacity at this level to resolve the challenges is more likely. Subject to the continued strength of the South African economy, this policy could be a solution to the historical failure of service delivery to rural areas. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2004.

In the last few years the demand for organic products has increased rapidly resulting in a strong growth of the organic industry worldwide. Organic certification is globally used to guarantee that 'organic' labelled produce follow the principles and standards of organic agriculture set by international and national organic certification bodies. Currently the lengthy and complex process of organic certification is entirely paper based and requires multiple access by organic primary producers to the certifying body involving precise data capture and transfer over a long period of time. The paper based organic certification has some significant disadvantages such as being time-consuming, error-prone (in particular transcription errors) and complex. Any improvement of the paper based organic certification process can lead to higher efficiency, lower costs and time savings for primary producers and certifying bodies. Australia is a major supplier of organic produce holding almost half of the organic farmland worldwide. However, Australia?s unique geography provides challenges by means of huge distances and poor rural telecommunication coverage for the sustainable agriculture sector. The disadvantages of the paper based organic certification are this kind of environment more severe. Up until now, there has not been a software solution supporting organic primary producers in their certification process, let alone a mobile software solution. In any case there are many farm management software solutions available but they do not take into account the specific issues in organic agriculture such as soil management, pest control, or fertilisation of land/animals. The Mobile Organic Certification (MobiCert) project was created to overcome these disadvantages focussing on the development of a mobile information portal which can be accessed through mobile Internet using GPRS or 3G technology enabling primary producers access and provision to organic certification related information in field using their mobile phones. The MobiCert project investigates the effectiveness of mobile devices (mobile phones/PDAs) for (some of) the stages of the computerised organic certification, in particular in terms of information access and provision. Designed as a proof-of-concept project the investigation takes place in South Australia targeting the NASAA organic certified primary producers there. The MobiCert project is a pilot project within the SAmCom (Sustainable Agriculture m-Commerce) project framework, which aims to enhance the information access and provision for primary producers through m-Commerce. It is a joint project of the University of South Australia, m.Net, NASAA, e-Cert and the Fraunhofer Institute Using a qualitative approach in a rapid appraisal case study the goals of the MobiCert project are: to create a theoretical model (RuTADIM) for the mobile technology acceptance and diffusion of innovation in remote and rural areas; and to develop and test a prototype mobile information community for organic certification which provides access to data and information related to organic certification, (online and offline) record keeping functionalities, as well as community functionalities for communication and experience exchange of primary producers. The results of the proof-of-concept MobiCert project suggest that organic primary producers can benefit from a mobile information platform to access and provide information in rural and remote areas. The high acceptance of organic primary producer to use the mobile information community indicates the willingness to embrace new technology and solutions in the existing organic certification process. The benefits and acceptance of the MobiCert solution have to bee affirmed in follow on field studies incorporating other issues such as the underlying business models. The contributions of the MobiCert project are two-fold: firstly, it provides a theoretical model (RuTADIM) which gives insights of key influence factors for the acceptance of mobile technology and the diffusion of innovation in rural and remote areas. The RuTADIM model can be foundation for future research projects involving mobile technology rural and remote areas. Secondly, the MobiCert information community displayed the potential of mobile solutions for primary producers in remote and rural areas. The MobiCert platform is a stepping stone for future mobile solution which can build upon this platform.

The complex co-evolutionary systems approach (CCeSA) provides a well-suited framework for analysing agricultural systems, serving as a bridge between biophysical and socioeconomic sciences, allowing for the explanation of phenomena, and for the use of metaphors for thinking and action. By studying agricultural systems as self-generated, hierarchical, complex co-evolutionary farming systems (CCeFSs), one can investigate the interconnections between the elements that constitute CCeFSs, along with the relationships between CCeFSs and other systems, as a fundamental step to understanding sustainability as an emergent property of the system. CCeFSs are defined as human activity systems emerging from the purposes, gestalt, mental models, history and weltanschauung of the farm manager, and from his dynamic co-evolution with the environment while managing the resources at his hand to achieve his own multiple, conflicting, dynamic, semi-structured and constrained purposes. A sustainable CCeFS is described as one that exhibits both enough fitness to achieve its multiple, dynamic, constrained, semi-structured, and often incommensurable and conflicting purposes while performing above threshold values for failure, and enough flexibility to dynamically co-evolve with its changing biophysical and socioeconomic environment for a given future period. Fitness and flexibility are essential features of sustainable CCeFSs because they describe the systems' dynamic capacity to explore and exploit its dynamic phase space while co-evolving with it. This implies that a sustainable CCeFS is conceived as a set of dynamic, co-evolutionary processes, contrasting with the standard view of sustainability as an equilibrium or steady state. Achieving sustainable CCeFSs is a semi-structured, constrained, multi-objective, and dynamic optimisation management problem with an intractable search phase space, that can be solved within the CCeSA with the help of a multi-objective co-evolutionary optimisation tool. Carnico-ICSPEA2, a Co-Evolutionary Navigator (CoEvoNav) used as a CCeSA's tool for harnessing the complexity of the CCeFS of interest and its environment towards sustainability, is introduced. The software was designed by its end-user - the farm manager and author of this thesis - as an aid for the analysis and optimisation of the "San Francisco" ranch, a beef cattle enterprise running on temperate pastures and fodder crops in the central plateau of Mexico. By combining a non-linear simulator and a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm with a deterministic and stochastic framework, the CoEvoNav imitates the co-evolutionary pattern of the CCeFS of interest. As such, the software was used by the farm manager to "navigate" through his CCeFS's co-evolutionary phase space towards achieving sustainability at farm level. The ultimate goal was to enhance the farm manager's decision-making process and co-evolutionary skills, through an increased understanding of his system, the co-evolutionary process between his mental models, the CCeFS, and the CoEvoNav, and the continuous discovery of new, improved sets of heuristics. An overview of the methodological, theoretical and philosophical framework of the thesis is introduced. Also, a survey of the Mexican economy, its agricultural sector, and a statistical review of the Mexican beef industry are presented. Concepts such as modern agriculture, the reductionist approach to agricultural research, models, the system's environment, sustainability, conventional and sustainable agriculture, complexity, evolution, simulators, and multi-objective optimization tools are extensively reviewed. Issues concerning the impossibility of predicting the long-term, detailed future behaviour of CCeFSs, along with the use of simulators as decision support tools in the quest for sustainable CCeFSs, are discussed. The rationale behind the simulator used for this study, along with that of the multi-objective evolutionary tools used as the makeup of Carnico-ICSPEA2, are explained. A description of the "San Francisco" ranch, its key on-farm sustainability indicators in the form of objective functions, constraints, and decision variables, and the semi-structured, multi-objective, dynamic, constrained management problem posed by the farm manager's planned introduction of a herd of bulls for fattening as a way to increase the fitness of his CCeFS via a better management of the system's feed surpluses and the acquisition of a new pick-up truck are described as a case study. The tested scenario and the experimental design for the simulations are presented as well. Results from using the CoEvoNav as the farm manager's extended phenotype to solve his multi-objective optimisation problem are described, along with the implications for the management and sustainability of the CCeFS. Finally, the approach and tools developed are evaluated, and the progress made in relation to methodological, theoretical, philosophical and conceptual notions is reviewed along with some future topics for research.

This dissertation explores the influences on individual decision making in a complex, real world context – the New Zealand wool supply chain. It asks two fundamental questions, first, how do decision makers make decisions in their everyday settings and, second, how is decision making learned and improved through experience and contextual factors. Two contextual aspects of decision making were also examined; these included whether decision making processes varied as a result of uncertainty and risky surroundings, or in cooperative and competitive environments. Further examination included revealing how being a member of a (multi-layered) group influences individual decision making. In-depth qualitative interviewing of sheep farmers, and associated supply chain members in the wool industry was undertaken. Three key decision journeys were explored from both the 'psychological' and the 'social' schools of social psychology in order to give detail on the flow of decision making influences through human systems (whether entities were present, or implied). One of the main aspects of this study was to employ, by analogy, an analysis inspired by the concept of multi-level selection from evolutionary theory as a means of understanding decision making in such a complex, layered system. Other contributions include commentary on the nature of social psychological studies of decision making, suggestions for the expansion of naturalistic decision making to include processes occurring on more than one 'level' of context, the framing of information in the media and the judgment of information sources on the part of experienced and inexperienced farmers, and, the role that globalization may play in driving decision making behaviour.

Cover crop use provides a myriad of benefits to soil health. Despite strong agronomic evidence of the benefits of using cover crops, farmers have been slow to adopt cover crop systems. Surveys show that this is due to a lack of understanding on how cover crop use will impact the farm, and limited economic analysis on the effects of cover crop use on the farm. <div> In this thesis, a variable-rate nitrogen study was analyzed to determine the relationship between applied nitrogen fertilizer and corn yields, and how a cover crop treatment impacts that relationship. Data were obtained from a case farm in Central Indiana. Production information was then translated into a partial budget to see how the use of the different cover crop treatments impacted net return per acre for corn production on the farm. Net returns were analyzed using both historical corn and nitrogen prices and stochastic modelling.</div><div> Results showed that the final impact on farm net return per acre associated with adoption of a cover crop system varies among cover crop species. Implementing annual rye resulted in a negative change to net return; while cereal rye and an oats and radish blend resulted in a positive change to net return. When additional benefits of cover crop use; such as drought tolerance, carbon content, and erosion reduction; are included, all three cover crop species resulted in a substantial increase in net return. This information will be of interest to farmers as a source to draw upon when making decisions regarding their own farms. Further research is needed to fully understand the relationship between cover crop use and farm profitability, particularly for farms at the early stages of adoption.</div>

<p>     Farmers face significant uncertainty, like weather and prices. Micro-economic theory tells us that when facing uncertainty, an agent, or farmer, makes economic decisions based upon their expectations. This primitive is important for agricultural economics. The “classic” agricultural economic problems: acreage allocation, commodity storage, technology adoption, household labor engagement, etc., are all influenced by the expectations of farmers. Despite expectations pervasive inclusion in economic theory and the decades of attention from agricultural economists, we still know relatively little about how farmers form expectations. This Dissertation is aimed at this opportunity.</p> <p>     The first chapter estimates the degree to which information is incorporated in farmland value expectations. Theoretically, an agent’s expectation should represent all available information. However, there are reasons to believe that an agent may not possess all the pertinent information or they may not be able to interpret the information. Macroeconomists have developed two models to explain the degree to which information may not be incorporated into expectations, The Sticky and Noisy Information Models. I use expectations and actual values of Iowa farmland from 1964 to 2021 to estimate the degree to which new information is not reflected in expectations, or exhibit information rigidities. I find that Iowa farmland market participants do experience information rigidities. From a practical standpoint, farmland is farmers’ most important collateral, the presence of public, simple farmland information may help mitigate lending challenges as a result of farmland value expectations.</p> <p>     The second chapter addresses how commodity price information is incorporated into the financial expectations of farmers. I estimate how unknown or surprise information from a United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report changes farmers’ attitudes and expectations of their financial conditions. This chapter, synthesizes literature from macroeconomics and commodity price analysis, and uses a unique source of data, the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The Ag Economy Barometer reflects the aggregate sentiment of farmers across the US. Like the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan, the Ag Economy Barometer can provide a snapshot of sentiment, a measure outside of fundamental economic indicators. Using the corn ending stocks values from the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), I find that</p> <p>farmers’ short– and long–term expectations and attitudes toward large farm investments are increased by information implying a higher corn price. However, this relationship does not exist in the reverse direction and when corn is not actively growing. As a result, if farmers are acting on these changes in expectations, they may be engaging in suboptimal decision making.</p> <p>     The third and final chapter explores the degree to which previous experience is reflected in expectations. The tales of the financial hardship during 1980’s Farm Financial Crisis have been shared across farmers’ dining room tables for decades. The most prominent anecdote relates to the rapid decline in farmland prices. As mentioned in the first chapter, the asset value of farmland is important to farmers. As a result, if experiences like the 1980’s Farm Financial Crisis have created a downward bias toward farmland values, the asset may be undervalued and frictions may exist in the farmland lending market. Macroeconomists show that consumers’ inflation expectations are directly related to their life experiences. I use a panel of farmland market participants in the Purdue Land Value and Cash Rent Survey to estimate the effect of previous experience on farmland value expectations. I find no</p> <p>significant effects. However, my estimates are using variation in cross sectional data. This modeling choice does not rule out the potential of the Farm Financial Crisis effecting all market participants in a similar way, a question outside of my analysis.</p> <p>     Each chapter of this Dissertation addresses how an agent forms their expectations, a necessary first step in my journey as a researcher. I am interested in the link between expectations and economic outcomes. I have built considerable knowledge on expectation formation and will deploy this knowledge exploring the role of expectations in farm outcomes, like acreage allocation, commodity storage, technology adoption, and household labor engagement. In my next step as a researcher, I plan to use the current theoretical advancements in behavioral economics, the explosion in empirical methods and computing, and the availability of data to re-visit the role of expectations in “classic” farm economics problems.</p>