A regional planning model is designed to facilitate coordinated land use and transportation planning, yet have a sufficiently simple structure to enable quick scenario turnaround. The model, TransPLUM, is built on two existing commercial software products: the Population and Land Use Model (PLUM); and a four-stage travel model implemented in a standard software package. Upon creating scenarios users are able to examine a host of results (zonal densities, origin-destination trip flows and travel times by mode, network link flows, etc) which may prompt modification of a reference land use plan and/or network plan. A zonal density-accessibility ratio is described: an index which identifies the relative utilization of a zone and which could serve as a coordinating feedback mechanism. The model was implemented for a pilot study area – the Winnipeg Capital Region. Development of a baseline scenario is discussed.

Der Abwassersektor in Deutschland sieht sich mit zunehmend turbulentem Umfeld konfrontiert. Auf Grund der langen Nutzungsdauer ihrer Infrastruktur und ihrer Kapitalintensität ist die Abwasserwirtschaft durch hohe Fixkosten und durch ihre Anfälligkeit gegenüber Pfadabhängigkeiten charakterisiert. Dies zeigt sich besonders im Zusammenhang mit den Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels in den letzten Jahren, in Folge dessen abnehmende Bevölkerungszahlen zu einem Verlust von Gebührenzahlern geführt haben. Zusätzlich wurde dieser Effekt durch einen beträchtlichen Rückgang der Wassernachfrage pro Kopf verstärkt. Die herkömmlichen Planungsansätze in der Siedlungsentwässerung basieren hauptsächlich auf Prognosen und Trendfortschreibungen und berücksichtigen somit nur unzureichend sich ändernde Rahmenbedingungen. Aus diesem Grund untersucht diese Dissertation inwiefern die geringe Anpassungsfähigkeit, die im Zusammenhang mit dem demografischen Wandel offensichtlich wurde, durch eine Stärkung der strategischen Planungskompetenzen, und speziell durch die Anwendung der Szenarioplanung, erhöht werden kann. Hierfür werden sowohl die prediktiven als auch die explorative Möglichkeiten der Szenarioplanung bewertet. Im ersten prediktiven Ansatz liegt der Fokus auf den spezifischen Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die Abwassergebühren. Der zweite explorative Ansatz basiert auf einer Kombination der Delphi-Technik mit der Szenarioplanung, in der die bedeutendsten zukünftigen Herausforderungen identifiziert und in vier Szenarien zusammengefasst werden. / The sanitation sector in Germany is challenged by an increasingly turbulent environment. Due to the long use-life of the infrastructure and its capital intensity, the sector is characterized by low rates of return, high fixed-costs and vulnerability to path dependency. This became particularly obvious in the last years within the context of demographic change, when a decreasing population led to the loss of fee payers, and was intensified by a considerable decline in the water demand per capita, which caused increasing wastewater fees. The traditional planning instruments in the sanitation sector rely mainly on forecasts and forward projections, while disregarding key dynamics of the surrounding political-legal, economic, societal, technological and environmental framework conditions. Therefore, this dissertation assesses if the low adaptive capacity of the sanitation sector, which became obvious with demographic change, can be enhanced by strengthening the long range planning competencies by means of scenario planning. The dissertation evaluates the possibilities of scenario planning as alternative planning instrument and explores the predictive as well as the explorative possibilities in two separate research streams. The predictive research stream analyzes the specific impacts of demographic change on wastewater fees. The focus lies on a short time horizon and one specific trend. The latter explorative research stream is addressed by a Delphi-based scenario study, in which the most relevant future challenges of the sanitation sector are identified and summarized in four scenarios.

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<p>In this report a model for logistics activities at Volvo Logistics Corporation, VLC, in the future has been constructed. The study is part of a project called Vision 2015 & Beyond, which started in the beginning of 2006, and focuses on what changes in the business environment that VLC as a TPL provider faces in the future. Within the scope of this project threats in the business environment as well as internal issues that are considered as concerns for the future are identified. The already identified threats are complemented and investigated by the researchers and further structured into a model in this report. The model shall be used as a tool in scenario planning within VLC. As to guide the practitioners in using the model a manual which describes the construction of the model and how it is going to be used has been set up. The model is adapted to VLC's activities within the automotive industry and their directives have continuously been taken into account, resulting in a model specific for VLC.</p><p>Theories in scenario planning and modelling has been revised as to construct the model, and as a result of this four types of components has been determined as to constituting in the model. Those components are; targets, scenario agenda, variables and driving forces. The process of identifying the different components was conducted step wisely, starting with the targets. The targets of the model represent what VLC want to focus on in the future, i.e. what is considered as important performance indicators. Transportation costs, Customer satisfaction, Security & Safety, Environment and Market Share have been chosen as the targets in the model. Next the components which VLC have a concern about, and that have an impact on those targets, are identified and decomposed starting with the areas on the scenario agenda and ending with determining the driving forces.</p><p>The model is built in two dimensions, one external part that represents the business environment, i.e. what VLC can not affect, and the second, the internal part, which represents the organisation itself. Both parts are constructed out of the type of components mentioned earlier and are connected by the targets In each part of the model relations among the components exist, however it is only the most important out of VLC’s perspective that takes part in the final network in the model.</p><p>The manual explains to the practitioner the concept behind the model and how it should be used. To verify the guidelines in the manual a mini-scenario was constructed. The mini-scenario is a fictitious case, which is thought to resemble those that VLC will use the model for in the future. In the mini-scenario presented in this report a future where the Kyoto Protocol implies transports are set up. The mini-scenario has an impact on a certain number of driving forces in the business environment, and by following the manual areas of recommendations for VLC's behaviour as to face this change will be generated.</p><p>The result of the study is a kit consisting of a model and an accompanying manual for VLC to use in scenario planning. The researchers have focused on constructing a model that is easy to understand for those that work within VLC, however to be able to use it in a proper way it is necessary to be familiar with VLC’s logistic activities. It is preferable to work in teams when using the model since the model is based on qualitative reasoning. Limits in time and resources has left quantification out of the scope in this report, but the researchers believe that the model could be improved and extended in that direction if it is found desirable in the future. The model is not static, rather the framework that exist today should be complemented in the future when new concerns are discovered, old ones can be disregarded etcetera.</p><p>The model offers VLC a structured methodology as to consider and respond to changes in the business environment.</p>

The Envision Central Texas (ECT) scenario-based regional planning process formulated its preferred vision for future growth in Central Texas in 2004. While the process was successful in developing a unified vision for future development for a region undergoing rapid growth, it is questionable whether any implementation has been seen on the ground since. Utilizing the performance indicators originally used to assess the alternative growth scenarios during the ECT planning process, this study attempts to monitor the region’s growth trajectory since that time. In other words, is the region realizing its preferred vision for new population growth and urban development? An analysis using remote sensing of satellite imagery, GIS and available data was undertaken to calculate eleven performance measures for the current regional context. Results of the indicator analysis helped to form a better understanding of the region’s growth since the ECT vision was adopted. For the most part, the region is continuing to grow in its “baseline” or “business as usual” pattern of development, characterized by low-density, separate use development on the urban fringe. Although the ECT vision is still in its early stages of implementation, the region faces challenges in realizing its fulfillment. The findings of this study are the product of the only quantifiable monitoring efforts of ECT implementation to date. They should be used in conjunction with qualitative monitoring already undertaken by ECT to better understand the region’s growth trajectory, and be used as a model for monitoring ECT implementation in the future. Additionally, the analysis offers a discussion of how the use of performance indicators can be improved in future scenario-based planning processes. / text

Safripol is a South African polymer company producing mainly high density polyethylene and polypropylene for the South African market. Safripol used to be part of a global chemical company Dow Chemicals. Dow Chemical's divested in South Africa in 2006 and Safripol lost all the advantages of being part of a global corporate enterprise. The company is faced with a unique situation in that it is receiving monomer from Sasol, which is also its main competitor in the polymer market. The price of monomer and its low availability is putting pressure on Safripol's product margins, with a negative effect on the company's sustainability. The above was also defined as the research problem that threatens to undermine the company's competitive edge in the polymer market. It was clear from this research study that monomer and specifically propylene was the biggest burning point for Safripol regarding the price and availability thereof. Research into the South African polymer market has shown that Safripol will lose significant market share if the company is not showing additional growth in the market. The research problem is investigated through interviews, monomer availability investigations, plant capacity increasing and potential technology partner's discussions. A specific scenario planning process was also followed to help Safripol identify potential present and future scenarios that the company can investigate. The research problem was addressed by developing a strategy for Safripol to address the research objectives. Recommendations were done regarding the following: 1) Recommendations for additional propylene supply. 2) Recommendations to increase the polypropylene plant capacity. 3) Recommendations with regards to technology partners. 4) Recommendations regarding the scenario planning process. / Thesis (M.Ing. (Development and Management Engineering))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011. (Mag eers in 2014 gepubliseer word)

Despite the widely hailed success of South Africa’s transition from apartheid to democracy it was apparent by the mid-2000s that beneath the veneer of stability lay a country facing serious social and economic challenges. The employment and labour market participation rates were uniquely low among emerging markets. Protest action against the state had reached levels last encountered in the volatile 1980s and early 1990s. The budget and current account deficits had reached unsustainable levels. By its own admission the government realised that the country was not recording GDP growth rates necessary to make dramatic inroads into poverty, unemployment and inequality levels. A number of analysts and commentators therefore came to question the future stability of South Africa’s political system. Trade unions and some Cabinet ministers routinely described unemployment as a “ticking time bomb”. The Chairman of the Institute of International Affairs wrote in Business Day that he could predict when South Africa’s “Tunisia Day” would arrive. The respected Economist newspaper ran a front page feature on what it called South Africa’s “downhill slide”. Former President FW de Klerk warned that South Africa was approaching a precipice. Clem Sunter, South Africa’s most renowned scenario planner, upped his prospects that South Africa may become a failed state. Global ratings agencies downgraded South Africa citing the fear that government policy could not meet popular demands. Amidst such speculation it is vitally important that the prospects for instability be investigated and determined, not via opinion or speculation, but rather against a sound body of theory. This task is complicated by the fact that the feared instability may only occur at a point in the future. The theory must therefore be applied via a methodology capable of overcoming the weak track record of political science in accurately anticipating major shifts in political systems. This problem statement will be addressed by showing that complex systems theory holds the key to a series of units of analysis via which the stability or instability of any political system can be objectively determined, compared to any other political system, and tracked over time. Secondly that there are scenario planning methodologies that can overcome the uncertainty inherent in the futures of all complex systems and thereby the poor track record that political scientists have in anticipating dramatic future changes in the systems they study. When combined into a single complex systems/scenario model, these theoretical and methodological points of departure will allow the long term prospects for stability or instability of any political system to be accurately and objectively determined. / PhD (Development and Management) North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013

Safripol is a South African polymer company producing mainly high density polyethylene and polypropylene for the South African market. Safripol used to be part of a global chemical company Dow Chemicals. Dow Chemical's divested in South Africa in 2006 and Safripol lost all the advantages of being part of a global corporate enterprise. The company is faced with a unique situation in that it is receiving monomer from Sasol, which is also its main competitor in the polymer market. The price of monomer and its low availability is putting pressure on Safripol's product margins, with a negative effect on the company's sustainability. The above was also defined as the research problem that threatens to undermine the company's competitive edge in the polymer market. It was clear from this research study that monomer and specifically propylene was the biggest burning point for Safripol regarding the price and availability thereof. Research into the South African polymer market has shown that Safripol will lose significant market share if the company is not showing additional growth in the market. The research problem is investigated through interviews, monomer availability investigations, plant capacity increasing and potential technology partner's discussions. A specific scenario planning process was also followed to help Safripol identify potential present and future scenarios that the company can investigate. The research problem was addressed by developing a strategy for Safripol to address the research objectives. Recommendations were done regarding the following: 1) Recommendations for additional propylene supply. 2) Recommendations to increase the polypropylene plant capacity. 3) Recommendations with regards to technology partners. 4) Recommendations regarding the scenario planning process. / Thesis (M.Ing. (Development and Management Engineering))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011. (Mag eers in 2014 gepubliseer word)