Abstract Title: Change of communication strategy when the compulsory nation membership falls (Byte av kommunikationsstrategi när nationsobligatoriet faller) Number of pages: 51 (58 including enclosures) Author: Elin Rantakokko Tutor: Peder Hård af Segerstad Course: Media and Communication Studies 30 hp Period: Spring of 2008 University: Division of Media and Communication, Department of Information Science, Uppsala University Purpose/Aim: This essay will result in some guidelines how the nations in Uppsala can act if the law according the compulsory membership in the student union and the student nations change. This essay focuses on how the nations can communicate to keep their members. Material/method: I have done seven interviews with persons that work in three different nations and the head of the Curators convent (the collaboration center between the nations), I have read articles from the largest newspapers and web pages. I have also read the Commission of Inquiry's recommendation according abolishing the law regarding the compulsory nation and student union membership. I have created two scenarios based on the material, according to Peter Schwartz advises. Main results: These scenarios show that the student nations have to become better at communicating with their new members and their already existing members. Keywords: Scenario planning, marketing, communication, student union, student nation, market segmentation, strategic communication, profile, organizations change.

The southwest Yukon social-ecological system (SES) is marked by complex changes, including a climate induced directionally changing landscape, an increasing shift away from traditional subsistence lifestyles, and changing species composition. The addition of “new” ungulate species through human and non-human introductions has spawned many management questions. This study developed qualitative scenarios through a participatory process, utilizing scientific and traditional knowledge from within the social-ecological system’s local context. The study worked with local management groups to address two main objectives: 1.) Collaboratively envision alternate future scenarios with management groups from which to collaboratively develop management goals for wood bison, elk, and mule deer to cope with the changing social and ecological landscape of the southwest Yukon and 2.) Discover resource managers’ and local stakeholders’ perceptions of scenario planning as a method identify wildlife management goals. A series of three workshops with the Alsek Renewable Resource Council, the Yukon Wood Bison Technical Team, and the Yukon Elk Management Planning Team addressed the first objective, while two surveys addressed the second objective. Major findings included southwest Yukon-specific wildlife management goals and considerations for using scenario planning in a wildlife management context. The scenarios themselves warn of plausible events that might unfold, such as novel disease and pest outbreaks. Several participants mentioned that the value attributed to different species will change based on scenario context. This prompts warnings for wildlife managers not to “shut the door” on a species today that may be highly valuable for solving food security challenges of the future. Findings suggest that one of scenario planning’s most significant contribution is a forum for people to share perspectives and develop trust and understanding of one another. All participants valued the holistic and long-term thinking aspects of scenario planning, seeing it as a complementary tool to enhance existing planning processes. Major resource management plans and/or resource development projects in the future should consider using a scenarios approach to better articulated goals in terms of whole system impacts.

abstract: Recent research within the field of natural resource management has been devoted to studying the cognitive structures, called mental models, that guide people’s thoughts, actions, and decision-making. Artificial lighting threatens the sustainability of pristine night skies around the world and is growing worldwide at an average rate of six-percent per year. Despite these trends, stakeholders’ mental models of night skies have been unexplored. This study will address this gap by eliciting stakeholders’ mental models of dark skies. Scenario planning has become a pervasive tool across diverse sectors to analyze complex systems for making decisions under uncertainty. The theory of scenario planning hypothesizes that scenario planning contributes to learning and improves upon participants’ mental models. However, there have been scant empirical studies attempting to investigate these two claims. Stakeholders’ mental models of dark skies were mapped while simultaneously testing the hypotheses that participation in scenario planning results in more complex mental models and alters environmental attitudes. Twenty-one Arizona stakeholders participated in one of two workshops during September 2016. Three identical surveys were given to measure knowledge, environmental attitudes and mental model change during the workshops. Knowledge gain peaked during the introductory lecture and continued to increase during the workshop. Scenario planning increased participants’ environmental attitudes from anthropocentric to nature-centered and was found to have a significant positive impact on dark sky advocates’ change in mental model complexity. The most prominent drivers affecting dark skies were identified using social network analysis of the pre and post mental models. The most prominent concepts were altered significantly from pre to post workshop suggesting that scenario planning may aid practitioners in understanding exogenous factors to their area of expertise. These findings have critical theoretical and managerial implications of mental model alteration, environmental attitudes, and the future of Arizona’s night skies. A revised theoretical framework is offered to include environmental attitudes into the theory of scenario planning and a conceptual framework was created to illustrate the most salient drivers affecting or being affected by dark skies. / Dissertation/Thesis / Masters Thesis Community Resources and Development 2016

La planification par scénarios est devenue un outil organisationnel extrêmement populaire. Elle stimule la réflexion stratégique et contribue à surmonter la pensée limitée à travers l’imagination de futurs multiples. Son objectif est de comprendre l’environnement mais encore évaluer les options stratégiques en dépit des scénarios proposés. Malgré cette popularité, force est de constater que très peu de travaux ont traité ses bienfaits sur l’organisation. L’objectif de cette recherche est, donc, l’étude de son impact sur le développement de la flexibilité et l’orientation entrepreneuriale. Notre recherche s’appuie sur une étude quantitative menée auprès de 133 cadres évoluant dans le secteur social et médico-social en France. Les résultats font apparaître une relation positive entre la planification par scénarios, la flexibilité stratégique et l’orientation entrepreneuriale. / Scenario planning has become an extremely popular organizational tool. It stimulates strategic thinking and helps overcome the limited thinking across the imagination of multiple futures. Its aim is to understand the environment but also to evaluate strategic options in spite of the proposed scenarios. Despite this popularity, there is inadequate research and theory to support its benefits to the organization. The objective of this research is to study its impact on the development of flexibility and entrepreneurial orientation. Our research is based on quantitative survey of 133 executives of French companies in the social and medico-social sector. The results confirm the expected relationships and reveal scenario planning to be an important determinant of strategic flexibility and entrepreneurial orientation.

This thesis investigates roadmapping in the context of its application to strategic early-stage innovation planning. It is concerned with providing an understanding of how uncertainty and risk are manifested in roadmapping in this application, and with developing and testing a roadmapping process that supports appropriate treatment of uncertainty and risk. Roadmapping is an approach to early-stage innovation planning, which is strategic in nature. It is seeing increasing application in practice and receiving growing attention in management literature. There has, however, been a noticeable lack of attention to uncertainty and risk in roadmapping theory and practice (and generally in strategic planning and at innovation’s early-stages). This is despite the awareness that uncertainty and risk are fundamental to strategy and innovation (i.e. application domains of roadmapping), and that roadmapping is meant to deliver, as part of its benefits, the identification, resolution and communication of uncertainties and risks. There is very limited theoretical or practical direction on what this entails. It is this gap that the research reported in thesis addresses. The research is divided into two phases. The first phase explains the manifestations and mechanisms of uncertainty and risk in roadmapping. It also introduces ‘risk-aware roadmapping’, a concept of roadmapping that includes a conscious and explicit effort to address uncertainty and risk, and points out what the process would entail in terms of necessary steps and procedures. The research here is designed using mixed methods (a combination of experience surveys, archival analysis, and case studies). The second phase provides a practical risk-aware roadmapping process. This practical process is developed based on the results of the first phase, and is designed according to procedural action research. This thesis contributes to the fields of roadmapping, early-stage innovation and organisational sensemaking. It is found that factors related to the content, process and nature of roadmapping interact to influence the perception and treatment of uncertainty and risk. Characteristics of organisational sensemaking as theorised by Weick (1995) are explored in the light of the findings and challenged. Aspects of early-stage innovation including the generation and selection of innovation ideas are explored in the context of uncertainty and risk and important paradoxes and constraints at innovation’s early-stages.

Der Abwassersektor in Deutschland sieht sich mit zunehmend turbulentem Umfeld konfrontiert. Auf Grund der langen Nutzungsdauer ihrer Infrastruktur und ihrer Kapitalintensität ist die Abwasserwirtschaft durch hohe Fixkosten und durch ihre Anfälligkeit gegenüber Pfadabhängigkeiten charakterisiert. Dies zeigt sich besonders im Zusammenhang mit den Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels in den letzten Jahren, in Folge dessen abnehmende Bevölkerungszahlen zu einem Verlust von Gebührenzahlern geführt haben. Zusätzlich wurde dieser Effekt durch einen beträchtlichen Rückgang der Wassernachfrage pro Kopf verstärkt. Die herkömmlichen Planungsansätze in der Siedlungsentwässerung basieren hauptsächlich auf Prognosen und Trendfortschreibungen und berücksichtigen somit nur unzureichend sich ändernde Rahmenbedingungen. Aus diesem Grund untersucht diese Dissertation inwiefern die geringe Anpassungsfähigkeit, die im Zusammenhang mit dem demografischen Wandel offensichtlich wurde, durch eine Stärkung der strategischen Planungskompetenzen, und speziell durch die Anwendung der Szenarioplanung, erhöht werden kann. Hierfür werden sowohl die prediktiven als auch die explorative Möglichkeiten der Szenarioplanung bewertet. Im ersten prediktiven Ansatz liegt der Fokus auf den spezifischen Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die Abwassergebühren. Der zweite explorative Ansatz basiert auf einer Kombination der Delphi-Technik mit der Szenarioplanung, in der die bedeutendsten zukünftigen Herausforderungen identifiziert und in vier Szenarien zusammengefasst werden.:1 FRAMEWORK OF THE CUMULATIVE DISSERTATION 7 2 JOURNAL ARTICLE I1: SZENARIOPLANUNG 23 3 JOURNAL ARTICLE I2: SZENARIOPLANUNG IM INTEGRIERTEN WASSERRESSOURCENMANAGMENT 27 4 JOURNAL ARTICLE P1: DER DEMOGRAFISCHE WANDEL ALS GEBÜHRENTREIBER IN DER SIEDLUNGSENTWÄSSERUNG 35 5 JOURNAL ARTICLE E1: NACHHALTIGE UNTERNEHMENSFÜHRUNG MIT DER DELPHI-METHODE 47 6 JOURNAL ARTICLE E2: REVIEW OF DELPHI-BASED SCENARIO STUDIES 51 7 JOURNAL ARTICLE E3: SCENARIOS FOR THE SANITATION SECTOR: A DELPHI-BASED APPROACH 67 8 CONCLUDING REMARKS 107 / The sanitation sector in Germany is challenged by an increasingly turbulent environment. Due to the long use-life of the infrastructure and its capital intensity, the sector is characterized by low rates of return, high fixed-costs and vulnerability to path dependency. This became particularly obvious in the last years within the context of demographic change, when a decreasing population led to the loss of fee payers, and was intensified by a considerable decline in the water demand per capita, which caused increasing wastewater fees. The traditional planning instruments in the sanitation sector rely mainly on forecasts and forward projections, while disregarding key dynamics of the surrounding political-legal, economic, societal, technological and environmental framework conditions. Therefore, this dissertation assesses if the low adaptive capacity of the sanitation sector, which became obvious with demographic change, can be enhanced by strengthening the long range planning competencies by means of scenario planning. The dissertation evaluates the possibilities of scenario planning as alternative planning instrument and explores the predictive as well as the explorative possibilities in two separate research streams. The predictive research stream analyzes the specific impacts of demographic change on wastewater fees. The focus lies on a short time horizon and one specific trend. The latter explorative research stream is addressed by a Delphi-based scenario study, in which the most relevant future challenges of the sanitation sector are identified and summarized in four scenarios.:1 FRAMEWORK OF THE CUMULATIVE DISSERTATION 7 2 JOURNAL ARTICLE I1: SZENARIOPLANUNG 23 3 JOURNAL ARTICLE I2: SZENARIOPLANUNG IM INTEGRIERTEN WASSERRESSOURCENMANAGMENT 27 4 JOURNAL ARTICLE P1: DER DEMOGRAFISCHE WANDEL ALS GEBÜHRENTREIBER IN DER SIEDLUNGSENTWÄSSERUNG 35 5 JOURNAL ARTICLE E1: NACHHALTIGE UNTERNEHMENSFÜHRUNG MIT DER DELPHI-METHODE 47 6 JOURNAL ARTICLE E2: REVIEW OF DELPHI-BASED SCENARIO STUDIES 51 7 JOURNAL ARTICLE E3: SCENARIOS FOR THE SANITATION SECTOR: A DELPHI-BASED APPROACH 67 8 CONCLUDING REMARKS 107

Scenario Planning as a tool for planning for the future has widespread use in the industry today and enjoys an envious status as the primary tool of futures thinking. However, the development in this field has been mired with confusion on its application and purpose. Since popularized by Shell in its use to anticipate the oil crisis in the 70s, scenario thinking has grown in use to aid public policy making, corporate strategic planning and even in the natural sciences. This paper attempts to study the scenario planning process design from a corporate perspective by studying its use in energy companies in Sweden. Energy companies present an ideal industry for this study as it is embroiled with obvious uncertainties in future power and carbon prices but also with subjective uncertainties tied to the political interest in the industry and the industry being in the centre of the climate change debate. Furthermore, the extremely long term nature of investment projects in this industry further exacerbates the need for deep insights into the future. This paper studies the nature of the scenario planning process based on two past papers; that have identified the key characteristics of scenarios. Firm specific internal factors are used to explain the differences in the process designs found in empirical data. Finally a framework to design a scenario planning process is proposed. This framework takes into account these internal factors to enable companies to leverage their internal resources and make full use of scenario planning as a tool.

Tourism is one of the fastest-growing industries in the world and bears significant weight in global economic terms. However, there are concerns about the sustainability of the industry from an environmental and social/cultural perspective. One of the world’s top ten international tourism destinations, Thailand, had a record-breaking 39 million international tourists in 2019 but is expected to fall to around 14 million in 2020, the lowest level in 14 years, due to COVID-19. These impacts can be especially severe in small tropical islands where the land base is small, resources scarce, and local populations have low incomes and limited opportunities for livelihood diversification. Especially amid a global pandemic and the impending risks of climate change, it is crucial to reset, carefully consider concerns about sustainable tourism development, and move forward with management regimes that better embrace sustainability principles. This thesis examines the application of sustainable tourism using Koh Phangan, Koh Samui, and Koh Tao in the Gulf of Thailand as case studies to aid in sustainability planning for the future, particularly for island tourism destinations. Data were collected using a standardized questionnaire administered to 1261 tourists visiting the three islands during the peak tourism season (January to March) of 2018. The findings are presented within this thesis in three papers. The first paper focussed on the behavioral approach and compared visitors to each island, noting differences in tourist demographics, travel characteristics, motivation factors, and areas of management concern identified. The second paper focussed on the limits of acceptable change approach and used cluster analysis of visitor motivations to identify three types of visitors that were described in terms of the specialization concept: Cluster 1 (“very high importance generalists”), Cluster 2 (“high importance generalists”), and cluster 3 (“mixed importance”). While cluster 1 had the greatest mean importance scores for all environmental, social, economic, and logistical factors, it identified the most areas of concern whereas cluster 3 identified the least. The third paper explored scenario planning as a vehicle for sustainable tourism planning on the island of Koh Phangan and was framed within the Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC), Tourism Opportunity Spectrum (TOS), and Ecotourism Opportunity Spectrum (ECOS) models. Most respondents preferred the “green scenario” in terms of accessibility, amount of visitors, development, food and accommodation, transportation around the island, traffic, waste management, water storage, and the scale of tourism. Collectively, these findings suggest that tourists can play an important role in identifying management priorities and that tourists tend to support a more sustainable tourism industry, as opposed to a focus on “mass tourism”, sometimes referred to as “sun, sea, sand” tourism. The study argues for adopting place-based planning practices and creating educational opportunities to ensure that the benefits of tourism are not outweighed by the costs. Especially as the tourism industry continues to expand, there is often a push to enhance visitation and the economic benefits that tourism provides; however, it is important to consider the environmental, social, economic, and logistical capacities of a tourism destination. / Graduate / 2021-08-21

Bakgrund: Som resultat av globaliseringen och den ökade miljömedvetenheten har det medfört att logistikens roll blivit allt viktigare. För att företag ska förbli konkurrenskraftiga måste de koncentrera sig på att vara kostnadseffektiva samtidigt som de upprätthåller en hög nivå av kundservice. För att beslutsfattare ska kunna fatta bra beslut är en totalkostnadsanalys (TCA) ett viktigt verktyg för att stödja deras arbete. En TCA tar dock inte hänsyn till hur logistikkostnader kan utvecklas i framtiden vilket kan leda till en missvisande analys som kan få negativa konsekvenserför ett SME företag. Eftersom framtiden är svår att förutsäga kan en scenarioplanering vara ett verktyg för beslutsfattare eftersom denna metod tar hänsyn till externa faktorer och skiljer sig därmed från traditionella prognoser. Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att upprätta en totalkostnadsanalys för respektive alternativ med fokus på logistikkostnader till Timber Windows som sedan ska kunna användas som underlag för beslutsfattande vid placering av hubb. Studiens syftar också till att skapa förståelse och undersöka hur en scenarioplanering kan addera mervärde till en totalkostnadsanalys med fokus på logistikkostnader för att utvärdera placering av hubb. Metod: För att kunna svara på studiens första två forskningsfrågor har en kvantitativfallstudie genomförts tillsammans med en deduktiv ansats. Till studiens tredje och sista forskningsfråga har istället en induktiv ansats använts. Primärdata har samlats in genom semistrukturerade intervjuer och därefter kompletterats med sekundärdata från fallföretaget Timer Windows, vetenskapliga artiklar, litteratur samt inhämtning av data från olika webbplatser. Slutsats: Studiens resultat visar att de identifierade logistikkostnader för Timber Windows nuvarande hubb i Vimmerby samt vid en eventuell flytt till Jönköping eller Stockholm är lastbil, drivmedel, personal, lager och truckkostnader. Studiens sammantagna totalkostnadsanalys visar att en flytt från Vimmerby inte skulle minskaTimber Windows logistikkostnader. Detta resultat kan ifrågasättas efter att scenarioplaneringen med scenariot High score genomförts som visar att Jönköping om tio år skulle kunna vara det bättre alternativet, jämfört med Vimmerby, eftersom det skulle bidra till kortare transportsträckor och därmed göra det möjligt för Timber Windows att utnyttja sina styrkor. Sammanfattningsvis kan studien konstatera att en scenarioplanering kan ge ett mervärde till en totalkostnadsanalys med fokus på logistikkostnader genom att beakta hur olika trender och drivkrafter kan komma att påverka framtiden. Vilket ger beslutsfattare i Timber Windows en mer omfattande och realistisk bild av potentiella framtida händelser som kan påverka logistikkostnaderna för valet av hubb. / Background: The result of globalization and increased environmental awareness has made the role of logistics increased significantly. Furthermore, this has also meant that companies must concentrate on being cost-effective while maintaining a high level ofcustomer service to remain competitive. For decision-makers to make good decisions,a total cost analysis (TCA) could be an important tool in order to support them. However, a TCA does not take into consideration how the logistical cost may changei n the future. By only including current costs without taking into account that these may change can lead to a misleading analysis which could have negative consequences for a SME. Because the future is difficult to predict, scenario planningcan be a great tool to the decision-makers as the method takes into account external factors and thus differs from traditional forcastings. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to establish a total cost analysis for each option(Vimmerby, Jönköping or Stockholm) with a focus on logistics costs for TimberWindows, which can then be used as a basis for decision-making on the location of thehub. The study also aims to understand and explore how scenario planning can add value to a total cost analysis focusing on logistics costs to evaluate the location of the hub. Method: To answer the study's two research questions, a quantitative case study with a deductive approach has been conducted. To answer the study's third and final research question, an inductive approach has been used instead. Furthermore, primarydata has been collected through semi-structured interviews and then complemented with secondary data from Timber Windows, scientific articles, literature and different websites. Conclusion: The results of the study show that the logistics costs identified in Timber Windows current hub and in a location in Jönköping or Stockholm are truck costs, fuel costs, storage costs, personnel costs and vehicle costs. The study's total cost analysis shows that a move from Vimmerby would not reduce the logistics costs for Timber Windows, a result that can be questioned after the created scenario High score, which shows that in 10 years, Jönköping may be the better choice, instead of Vimmerby, as it contributes to shorter transport distances and enables Timber Windows to utilize its strengths. In conclusion, the study shows that scenario planning can add value to a total cost analysis focusing on logistics costs by addressing how different trends and drivers may affect the future, giving Timber Windows decision-makers a more comprehensive and realistic picture of potential future events and potential situations that may affect the logistics costs of the hub selection.

Cemeteries are an integral part of the cityscape, which as a societal function are responsible for the interment of the deceased in a dignified manner. Cemeteries as a space imbued with cultural, historical, religious and emotional significance - as a site for grief, reflection and contemplation they also have a significant physical presence in the city. Cemeteries are a somewhat hidden issue in urban planning in Sweden today, but as a land intensive development that locks the land from future reuse it is paramount that the complexity is examined. The Burial Act (SFS 1990:1144) governs burial practice, services and the organisation structure of cemeteries in Sweden which creates an interesting set of conditions. The thesis investigates future cemetery planning in the context of Gothenburg, Sweden, as the city is faced with a shortage of burial space in the coming decade. Simultaneously, Gothenburg is growing and land for future development is highly contested. This provides motivation for why cemetery planning needs to be understood in an urban context. The thesis will use two case studies, first the case of Järva cemetery in Stockholm as inspiration for cemetery planning in current society and secondly the case of Gothenburg to guide the research regarding how to plan for cemeteries that are socially just. An extensive literature review and interviews with relevant actors, are used to gain knowledge of cemetery planning and the functions of cemeteries in a European context, as well as future trends regarding cemetery planning. The interviews are examined through the themes of physical considerations, qualities of cemeteries, diversity in burial provision and governance. Results of the interviews indicate the multifaceted nature of planning for cemeteries. The method of scenario planning is subsequently utilized as a tool to explore how a future cemetery in Gothenburg can be planned, developed and designed through four possible scenarios - small-peripheral, small-urban, large-urban and large-peripheral. A scenario analysis is carried out using a social justice theoretical framework to illuminate how a socially just cemetery development can be established and potential challenges regarding this. The concepts analysed through the theoretical framework are planning, ownership and management, finance, social infrastructure and environmental impact. The thesis concludes with a discussion of the cemetery scenarios analysis and providing recommendations for future cemetery planning in Gothenburg.