Modern aerospace systems rely heavily on legacy platforms and their derivatives. Historical examples show that after a vehicle design is frozen and delivered to a customer, successive upgrades are often made to fulfill changing requirements. Current practices of adapting to emerging needs with derivative designs, retrofits, and upgrades are often reactive and ad-hoc, resulting in performance and cost penalties. Recent DoD acquisition policies have addressed this problem by establishing a general paradigm for design for lifelong evolution. However, there is a need for a unified, practical design approach that considers the lifetime evolution of an aircraft concept by incorporating future requirements and technologies. This research proposes a systematic approach with which the decision makers can evaluate the value and risk of a new aircraft development program, including potential derivative development opportunities. The proposed Evaluation of Lifelong Vehicle Evolution (EvoLVE) method is a two- or multi-stage representation of the aircraft design process that accommodates initial development phases as well as follow-on phases. One of the key elements of this method is the Stochastic Programming with Recourse (SPR) technique, which accounts for uncertainties associated with future requirements. The remedial approach of SPR in its two distinctive problem-solving steps is well suited to aircraft design problems where derivatives, retrofits, and upgrades have been used to fix designs that were once but no longer optimal. The solution approach of SPR is complemented by the Risk-Averse Strategy Selection (RASS) technique to gauge risk associated with vehicle evolution options. In the absence of a full description of the random space, a scenario-based approach captures the randomness with a few probable scenarios and reveals implications of different future events. Last, an interactive framework for decision-making support allows simultaneous navigation of the current and future design space with a greater degree of freedom. A cantilevered beam design problem was set up and solved using the SPR technique to showcase its application to an engineering design setting. The full EvoLVE method was conducted on a notional multi-role fighter based on the F/A-18 Hornet.

Sammanfattning Bakgrund: Tjeders är ett anrikt företag i Malmköping som tillverkar larm och signalutrustning. I dagsläge känner Tjeders att deras varor och tjänster befinner sig i en slutfas i produktionscykeln, där vinsterna tas hem. Detta leder till att nya produkter och tjänster bör utvecklas. Metoden: Examensarbete har präglats av ett hermeneutiskt synsätt och en kvalitativ metodik. Teorin grundar sig i litteraturstudier och empirin på öppenriktade intervjuer samt omvärldsanalys i form av mediascanning. Den praktiska metoden har följt TAIDA, vilket är en övergripande modell för hur scenarioplanering sker. Diskussionen: I diskussionen sammanställs teorin med empirin där behandlas resonemangen om hur Tjeders ska gå vidare med de framkomna scenariona samt förslag kring handlade utifrån dessa. Resultatet: Examensarbete har resulterat i två scenariokors som behandlar teknik och marknad, scenariokorsen konstruerades genom en kreativ process där det insamlade materialet bearbetades. Detta är också detta examensarbetes innovationsbidrag. Empirin: Empiridata är grundad på personliga intervjuer och mediascanning. Under denna del tas också upp hantering av LOU och en kortare redogörelse för denna. Syftet: Syftet med examensarbete är att skapa några olika framtidsbeskrivningar kring teknik och marknad med relevans för Tjeders AB. Examensarbetet ska utmynna i två olika scenariokors som kan fungera som redskap i Tjeders strategiska arbete.

Background: The global marketplace is characterized by rapid and constantchange, resulting in complex logistics systems. The port industry, which is a crucial link in the supply chain, seeks to understand the complexity of market dynamics. Ports should understand the changing market dynamics to better meet the market demand and have a competitive advantage. One representative from the port industry is Swedish ports and the Port of Gothenburg, which will be the focus of this thesis. The market demand for paper and paperboard has been a significant driver of shipping activities in Swedish ports. The market demand for bulk and container shipping is also relevant due to its influence on the port’s operation. Furthermore, itis essential for port authorities to understand the demand-oriented infrastructure to develop strategies to meet the market dynamics. Purpose: This thesis has been undertaken on behalf of the PoG. The purpose of the thesis is to provide a clearer understanding of how the current and future market demand of paper and paperboard influence Swedish ports with scenario planning. Based on the future market demand for paper and paperboard, additional information of the future market demand for bulk and container will be included in the scenarios. By using the scenarios, recommendations will be given regarding investments the port authority at PoG needs to implement as a response to future paper and paperboard market demand. Methodology: The thesis has a qualitative case study with Port of Gothenburg as the study object. Data collection has been conducted through semi- and unstructuredinterviews from the Swedish forest industry, three forest companies and port authority at Port of Gothenburg. Additionally, scenario planning will be the main analysis method in this thesis. Conclusion: The current market demand for paper and paperboard indicates that demand for paper is decreasing, while demand for paperboard is increasing. The future market demand for paper and paperboard can develop in several ways. The authors of this thesis believe that the market demand for paper will have a structural fall with an exception for special paper. While paperboard will have a continuous increase. Furthermore, there is currently an increase of bulk and container shipping in the Port of Gothenburg. The authors believe that future market demand for bulk will be stable, while container will have an increased trend. However, as the market demand is hard to predict, the thesis presents four scenarios of different futureoutcomes of market demand for paper, paperboard, bulk- and container shipping. There are several investments needed for the Port of Gothenburg to respond to theestablished demand scenarios. Investments that will benefit Port of Gothenburg themost are Port Community System (PCS), Integrated Warehouse ManagementSystem (IWMS), Real-Time Location System (RTLS), development of port quays,larger quay cranes and floating islands, and cold ironing and renewable energy. Key words: Paper, Paperboard, forest industry, bulk, container, cargo shipping,seaport, Port of Gothenburg, scenario planning, port investments

В работе рассматривается применение стратегического планирования в образовании, его методы, этапы и технологии. В первой части работы рассматривается понятие «стратегическое планирование», его инструменты и этапы. Также изучаются методы и технологии стратегического планирования, говорится о значении и реализации стратегического планирования в образовании. Во второй части работы изучается и анализируется опыт России в стратегическом планировании в высшем образовании. Рассматриваются стратегии развития высшего образования, как в целом, так и на примере НИУ ВШЭ и КФУ – вузов участников программы 5-100, проводится сравнительный анализ стратегических планов данных вузов. Пользуясь результатами данного исследования, можно изучить и проанализировать картину условий развития высшего образования в РФ, выявить проблемы или преимущества использования технологий стратегического планирования в высшем образовании. Опыт применения стратегического планирования в высшем образовании может служить основой для поиска теоретических решений многих существующих проблем в высшем образовании России. / The paper examines the use of strategic planning in education, its methods, stages and technologies. The first part of the work examines the concept of "strategic planning", its tools and stages. Methods and technologies of strategic planning are also studied; the importance and implementation of strategic planning in education are discussed. The second part of the work examines and analyzes Russia's experience in strategic planning in higher education. Strategies for the development of higher education are considered, both in general and on the example of the HSE and KFU - universities participating in the 5-100 program, a comparative analysis of the strategic plans of these universities is carried out. Using the results of this study, one can study and analyze the picture of the conditions for the development of higher education in the Russian Federation, identify problems or advantages of using strategic planning technologies in higher education. The experience of using strategic planning in higher education can serve as a basis for finding theoretical solutions to many existing problems in higher education in Russia.

With an increasing proportion of older people in the Australian population and increasing health and longevity, paid work after the age of 65 years may become an option or a necessity in the future. The focus of this research is on Australian women of the baby boom generation, their working futures, and the work-retirement decision. This is explored both from the viewpoint of women and from a social policy perspective. The research draws on Considine�s model of public policy, futures studies, and Beck�s concept of risk society. The research comprises three studies. Using focus group research, Study 1 explored the views of Australian women of the baby boom generation on work after the age of 65 years. Study 2 aimed to explore current thinking on the research topic in Australia and overseas. Computer-mediated communication involving an Internet website and four scenarios for the year 2020 were used for this study. Study 3 consists of the analysis of quantitative data from the Healthy Retirement Project, focusing on attitudes towards retirement, retirement plans, and the preferred and expected age of retirement. The importance of choice and a work � life balance emerged throughout the research. Women in high-status occupations were found to be more likely to be open to the option of continuing paid work beyond age 65 than women in low-status jobs. However, the women were equally likely to embrace future volunteering. The research findings suggest that policies for an ageing female workforce should be based on the values of inclusiveness, fairness, self-determination, and social justice, and address issues of workplace flexibility, equality in the workplace, recognition for unpaid community and caring work, opportunities for life-long learning, complexity and inequities of the superannuation system, and planning for retirement. Further, providing a guaranteed minimum income for all Australians should be explored as a viable alternative to the current social security system.

This cumulative dissertation covers the concepts of scenario-based strategic planning and strategic management in family firms over five articles. The first article gives an overview of the cumulative dissertation explaining the research gap, approach and contribution of the dissertation. The paper highlights the two research areas covered by the dissertation with two articles focusing on scenario-based strategic planning and two on strategic management in family firms. The second article is the first of two focusing on scenario-based strategic planning. It introduces and describes a set of six tools facilitating the implementation of scenario-based strategic planning in corporate practice. The third paper adapts these tools to the financial management and controlling context in private companies highlighting the tools’ flexibility in managing uncertain and volatile environments. The fourth article is the first of two focusing on strategic management in family firms. It analyzes organizational ambidexterity as a factor explaining family firm performance. The article shows that a high level of organizational ambidexterity in family firms leads to a higher family firm performance. The final paper concludes the dissertation examining the tendency of family firms to focus on capability exploration or resource exploitation over different generations managing the family firm.

With an increasing proportion of older people in the Australian population and increasing health and longevity, paid work after the age of 65 years may become an option or a necessity in the future. The focus of this research is on Australian women of the baby boom generation, their working futures, and the work-retirement decision. This is explored both from the viewpoint of women and from a social policy perspective. The research draws on Considine�s model of public policy, futures studies, and Beck�s concept of risk society. The research comprises three studies. Using focus group research, Study 1 explored the views of Australian women of the baby boom generation on work after the age of 65 years. Study 2 aimed to explore current thinking on the research topic in Australia and overseas. Computer-mediated communication involving an Internet website and four scenarios for the year 2020 were used for this study. Study 3 consists of the analysis of quantitative data from the Healthy Retirement Project, focusing on attitudes towards retirement, retirement plans, and the preferred and expected age of retirement. The importance of choice and a work � life balance emerged throughout the research. Women in high-status occupations were found to be more likely to be open to the option of continuing paid work beyond age 65 than women in low-status jobs. However, the women were equally likely to embrace future volunteering. The research findings suggest that policies for an ageing female workforce should be based on the values of inclusiveness, fairness, self-determination, and social justice, and address issues of workplace flexibility, equality in the workplace, recognition for unpaid community and caring work, opportunities for life-long learning, complexity and inequities of the superannuation system, and planning for retirement. Further, providing a guaranteed minimum income for all Australians should be explored as a viable alternative to the current social security system.

This cumulative dissertation covers the concepts of scenario-based strategic planning and strategic management in family firms over five articles. The first article gives an overview of the cumulative dissertation explaining the research gap, approach and contribution of the dissertation. The paper highlights the two research areas covered by the dissertation with two articles focusing on scenario-based strategic planning and two on strategic management in family firms. The second article is the first of two focusing on scenario-based strategic planning. It introduces and describes a set of six tools facilitating the implementation of scenario-based strategic planning in corporate practice. The third paper adapts these tools to the financial management and controlling context in private companies highlighting the tools’ flexibility in managing uncertain and volatile environments. The fourth article is the first of two focusing on strategic management in family firms. It analyzes organizational ambidexterity as a factor explaining family firm performance. The article shows that a high level of organizational ambidexterity in family firms leads to a higher family firm performance. The final paper concludes the dissertation examining the tendency of family firms to focus on capability exploration or resource exploitation over different generations managing the family firm.:I. SCENARIO-BASED STRATEGIC PLANNING AND STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT IN FAMILY FIRMS … 1 1. Research question and goal of the dissertation … 2 2. Summary of papers … 8 2.1. Contribution … 12 2.2. Implications and further research … 16 II. SIX TOOLS FOR SCENARIO-BASED STRATEGIC PLANNING AND THEIR APPLICATION … 25 1. Introducing tools one and two: The framing checklist and 360° stakeholder feedback … 27 1.1. The framing checklist … 27 1.2. Description of the framing checklist … 29 1.3. 360° stakeholder feedback … 36 1.3.1. Existing perceptions, blind spots and weak signals … 37 1.3.2. Description of 360° stakeholder feedback … 38 1.4. Evaluation of the framing checklist and 360° stakeholder feedback … 44 2. Applying frameworks one and two: The framing checklist and 360° stakeholder feedback in the European airline industry … 46 2.1. Introduction … 46 2.2. The framing checklist … 46 2.3. 360° stakeholder feedback … 48 3. Introducing tools three and four: The impact/uncertainty grid and the scenario matrix … 53 3.1. The impact/uncertainty grid … 53 3.2. Description of the impact/uncertainty grid … 55 3.3. The scenario matrix … 57 3.4. Description of the scenario matrix … 62 3.5. Evaluating the impact/uncertainty grid and the scenario matrix … 67 4. Applying frameworks three and four: The impact/uncertainty grid and the scenario matrix in the European airline industry … 69 4.1. Introduction … 69 4.2. The impact/uncertainty grid … 69 4.3. The scenario matrix … 71 5. Introducing tools five and six: The strategy manual and the monitoring cockpit … 87 5.1. Introduction … 87 5.2. The strategy manual … 87 5.3. Description of the strategy manual … 91 5.4. The scenario cockpit … 95 5.5. Description of the scenario cockpit … 96 5.6. Evaluating the strategy manual and the scenario cockpit ..................... 99 6. Applying frameworks five and six: The strategy manual and the scenario cockpit in the European airline industry … 102 6.1. The strategy manual … 102 6.2. The scenario cockpit … 105 III. SZENARIOBASIERTE STRATEGISCHE PLANUNG IN VOLATILEN UMFELDERN … 111 1. Einführung: Unternehmen agieren in einer zunehmend volatilen Umwelt … 112 2. Volatilität als Herausforderung für die strategische Planung … 112 3. Szenariobasierte strategische Planung als Lösungsansatz für Planung unter Volatilität …114 3.1. Grundlagen der szenariobasierten strategischen Planung … 114 3.2. Prozess der szenariobasierten strategischen Planung … 115 4. Zusammenfassung ... 122 IV. ORGANIZATIONAL AMBIDEXTERITY AND FAMILY FIRM PERFORMANCE … 125 1. Introduction … 126 2. Theory and Hypotheses … 127 3. Methodology … 131 3.1. Research Design and Sample Generation … 131 3.2. Measures … 133 4. Analysis and Results … 135 5. Discussion and Conclusion … 139 V. THE IMPACT OF SUCCESOR GENERATION DISCOUNT IN FAMILY FIRMS: EXAMINING NONLINEAR EFFECTS ON EXPLORATION AND EXPLOITATION … 150 1. Introduction … 151 2. The RBV and the importance of exploration and exploitation … 154 3. The importance of exploration and exploitation in family firms … 156 4. The impact of generational involvement on exploration and exploitation in family firms … 159 5. Methodology … 164 5.1. Constructs … 165 5.2. Results … 167 6. Discussion … 172 6.1. Implications for theory and practice … 175 6.2. Study limitations and future research … 176 6.3. Conclusion … 177