Today’s sustainability assessment frameworks are no longer applicable when evaluating the newautomotive vehicles. Therefore, the need for suitable automotive evaluation frameworks increasesas companies and scientists are trying to predict the important sustainability characteristics oftomorrows car and how it will affect our societies. The goal is to create a conceptual sustainabilityassessment framework to solve the very complex question of what the most important criteria areand how this new transportation type might affect our society. This is done using a systemapproach, a method that is suitable for studying interrelations between the influencing factors incomplex problems like the one between the sustainability dimensions. Scenario analysis has beenused in order to create the future environment and do a segmentation of the plausible concepts offuturistic transportation options. The evaluation criteria have been developed by gatheringinformation through a literature study and from primary sources via interviews.The resulting framework is composed of 19 evaluation criteria from the different dimensions ofsustainability. The framework allows the user to insert a futuristic concept and evaluate it tocompare a numeric score to other concepts to get indicators of how sustainable the concept is. Thesegmentation of futuristic vehicles shows that the most plausible types of automated vehicles areshared taxis, non-shared taxis and privately owned vehicles, all affecting society differently.The thematic analysis of the criteria has shown that there some relationships and types of criteriathat are more important than others. The most essential discovered correlations between criteriaare: Production and affordability and also maintenance & operation and affordability, affordabilitywith accessibility, affordability & accessibility and traffic volumes and further traffic Volumesand pollution. The developed framework is believed to have the desired function of creating a trustworthyassessment of autonomous vehicles based on the literature study and previous discoveries withinthe field. The evaluation of the different segments is left for future work. / Dagens ramverk för hållbarhetsbedömningar är inte längre användbara vid utvärdering av nyasjälvkörande fordon. Därför har behovet ökat av lämpliga ramverk som fokuserar påhållbarhetsutvärderingar när företag och forskare försöker förutse de viktigahållbarhetsegenskaperna av morgondagens fordon och hur de kommer att påverka vårt samhälleutifrån ett hållbarhetsperspektiv. Målet med studien är att skapa ett konceptuellt ramverk förhållbarhetsbedömning som kan hjälpa till att lösa den mycket komplexa frågan om vilka viktigakriterier bör inkluderas vid en evaluering av denna nya typ av transport. Studien har följt ettsystematiskt tillvägagångssätt kallat ”System approach”, en metod som är lämplig för studier därrelationer mellan olika påverkande faktorer är väldigt komplexa, som den mellanhållbarhetsdimensionerna. Scenarioanalys har används för att skapa en framtida miljö och ensegmentering av de mest trovärdiga koncepten av framtida transportalternativ. Utvärderingskriterierna har utvecklats genom att samla in information från en litteraturstudie ochfrån primära källor genom intervjuer. Det resulterande ramverket är sammansatt av 19 utvärderingskriterier inom de olikadimensionerna för hållbarhet. Med det resulterade ramverket kan användaren införa ett futuristisktfordonskoncept och bedöma detta för att få ett numeriskt resultat och jämföra dessa med andrautvärderingar för att få en indikation om hur hållbara koncepten är gentemot varandra. Segmenteringen av de futuristiska fordonstyperna visar att de mest trovärdiga typerna avautomatiserade färdmedel är delade taxitjänster, privata taxitjänster och privatägda fordon, allamed olika påverkan på samhället. Den tema-baserade analys av kriterierna har visat att det finns vissa relationer och typer av kriteriersom är viktigare än andra. De viktigaste upptäckta relationerna mellan kriterier är: Produktion ochekonomisk tillgänglighet, underhåll och ekonomisk tillgänglighet, ekonomisk tillgänglighet medtillgänglighet till transport, tillgänglighet till transport och trafikvolymer, ekonomisk tillgänglighetoch trafikvolymer och slutligen så påverkar trafikvolymerna utsläppet. Det utvecklade konceptuella ramverket antas ha den önskade funktionen att skapa en pålitligbedömning av autonoma fordon baserat på litteraturstudien och tidigare upptäckter inom fältet. Utvärderingen av de olika segmenten lämnas till framtida studier.

Объектом исследования является анализ накопленного российскими event-агентствами опыта составления программ и сценариев специальных мероприятий и раскрытие стратегии и технологии их планирования. Методологической основой исследования выступают теории event-менеджмента. Они позволяют раскрыть его специфику относительно процесса формирования механизмов нематериального стимулирования персонала и поддержания имиджа компаний посредством организации различных event'ов и, в частности, совершенствования их сценарной составляющей. / The objectives of the study are to analyze the experience gained by Russian event agencies in compiling programs and scenarios for special events and to reveal strategies and technologies for their planning. The methodological basis of the study is the theory of event management. They allow revealing its specifics regarding the process of formation of mechanisms of non-material incentives for personnel and maintaining the image of companies by organizing various events and, in particular, improving their scenario component. The research methods include document analysis, observation included, methods of comparison, analysis and synthesis.

No description available.

This thesis lies at the nexus of scenario planning and strategy. Scenario planning is a foresight activity used extensively in strategic planning and public policy development to imagine alternative, plausible futures as means to understand the driving forces behind the uncertainties and possibilities of a changing environment. Despite significant application in both private and public sectors, and a growing body of academic and practitioner-orientated literature, little empirical evidence exists about how organisations actually use scenario planning to inform strategy. Moreover, the emerging Strategy-as-Practice (S-as-P) perspective, which has exposed strategy to more sociological pursuits, presented a way of conceiving and studying strategy not as something an organisation has, but rather as something people do. By examining the activities of scenario planning, understanding its use as an example of episodic, interactive strategizing, S-as-P provides a theoretical lens through which to perform a much-needed empirical analysis of the scenario-to-strategy process. A second goal of the thesis is to advance understanding of the S-as-P perspective by addressing recent criticisms as well as contributing to the growing body of practice-based research. The central research question which guides the thesis is, how does an organisation use scenario planning to inform the strategic planning process? To answer this question, the research vehicle is a single, in-depth case study of community planning in Fife, which extends from 1999 until April 2008. A detailed, longitudinal narrative of Fife’s scenario planning and strategy process is presented before using empirical evidence from the case to understand how an organisation manages the scenario planning process, how scenario planning affects policy development, and how cognitive processes manifest physically in an organisation. The thesis concludes that scenario planning created a sensemaking/sensegiving framework that provided structural and interpretive legitimacy which facilitated communicative activities and helped the Fife Partnership understand and improve the interconnectedness of Fife’s public services and community planning process. While contributing to the S-as-P research agenda, the investigation of the scenario-to-strategy process also revealed, and solidified, a number of criticisms that challenge the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical validity of the strategy-as-practice perspective.

<p>Abstract</p><p>Title: Change of communication strategy when the compulsory nation membership falls (Byte av kommunikationsstrategi när nationsobligatoriet faller)</p><p>Number of pages: 51 (58 including enclosures)</p><p>Author: Elin Rantakokko</p><p>Tutor: Peder Hård af Segerstad</p><p>Course: Media and Communication Studies 30 hp</p><p>Period: Spring of 2008</p><p>University: Division of Media and Communication, Department of Information Science, Uppsala University</p><p>Purpose/Aim: This essay will result in some guidelines how the nations in Uppsala can act if the law according the compulsory membership in the student union and the student nations change. This essay focuses on how the nations can communicate to keep their members.</p><p>Material/method: I have done seven interviews with persons that work in three different nations and the head of the Curators convent (the collaboration center between the nations), I have read articles from the largest newspapers and web pages. I have also read the Commission of Inquiry's recommendation according abolishing the law regarding the compulsory nation and student union membership. I have created two scenarios based on the material, according to Peter Schwartz advises.</p><p>Main results: These scenarios show that the student nations have to become better at communicating with their new members and their already existing members.</p><p>Keywords: Scenario planning, marketing, communication, student union, student nation, market segmentation, strategic communication, profile, organizations change.</p>

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-05T17:04:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 19 / Nenhuma / Em um mercado competitivo e sujeito a mudanças cada vez mais freqüentes, as alternativas para a melhoria dos produtos e processos necessitam ser constantemente avaliadas. Neste aspecto, a tomada de decisão tem grande relevância, principalmente nas decisões estratégicas, pois elas podem determinar o sucesso ou a ruína da empresa, dependendo do grau de risco, incerteza e dos critérios adotados para a tomada de decisão. Freqüentemente decisões são tomadas nas organizações considerando-se experiências em processos similares ou utilizando-se de ferramentas tradicionais. Porém, estas decisões são muitas vezes pontuais, resolvendo um problema específico e esquecendo o restante do sistema. O resultado é a solução de alguns problemas e o agravamento de outros, ou até mesmo o surgimento de problemas inexistentes em tal sistema. Dentro deste contexto, o Pensamento Sistêmico tem grande importância. Nesta pesquisa procurou-se direcionar os critérios para a tomada de decisão dentro do conceito sistêmico, ou seja, visualiza / In a competitive market, subject to frequent changes, the alternatives for improving products and processes need to be constantly evaluated. Here, the decision making has great significance, especially in strategic decisions, as they could determine the success or ruin the company, depending on the degree of risk, uncertainty and the criteria adopted for the decision. Frequently decisions are taken in organizations, considering experiences in similar processes or using traditional tools. However, these decisions are often isolated, by solving a specific problem and ignoring the rest of the system. The result is the solution of some problems and the worsening of others or even the growth of unknown problems in this system. Within this context, the Systems Thinking has great importance. This study sought to address the criteria for decision making within the Systems Thinking concept, by viewing the entire system and sharing this vision for all decision makers. Also within the Systems Thinking, the Scenario Plan

Submitted by William Justo Figueiro (williamjf) on 2015-08-27T19:25:31Z No. of bitstreams: 1 27e.pdf: 3720733 bytes, checksum: f9c6dfbe1beaa438ea5b85699be3054b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-08-27T19:25:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 27e.pdf: 3720733 bytes, checksum: f9c6dfbe1beaa438ea5b85699be3054b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-07-12 / Nenhuma / O futuro, com seus riscos e incertezas, pode ser apontado como um dos assuntos que mais gera receios nas organizações. Para lidar com essas situações, algumas empresas utilizam técnicas e metodologias já comprovadas pela academia, para se tornarem competitivas. Quando organizações apresentam situações de alto grau de incerteza, quantidade insuficiente de oportunidades, setor em mudança e problemas de comunição interna, a metodologia de planejamento de cenários prospectivos é a mais indicada. No referencial teórico, foram mapeadas as principais abordagens de cenários prospectivos, dando ênfase para a metodologia selecionada para a aplicação, a metodologia Shell, que possui histórico de utilização, literatura disponível pela própria Shell e poucos estudos de aplicação no Brasil. Para aplicação piloto desta metodologia, foi selecionada a empresa CEEE, que atende os mercados de geração, transmissão e distribuição de energia elétrica, fazendo parte de um setor que se encontra em mudanças no país. A área de estudos escolhidas para os cenários foi a Geração Distribuída (GD). A aplicação foi concluída com a visualização de dois cenários da Geração Distribuída em 2035, os cenários Personalidade e Alienação. Estas estórias foram inicialmente delimitadas para o Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Porém no decorrer de suas construções, tiveram sua delimitação ampliada para o setor de energia elétrica brasileiro. As estórias dos cenários construídos neste estudo tiveram como principais forças motrizes as questões institucionais, ambientais e políticas, que resultaram em um cenário otimista e um pessimista. Um dos fatores críticos para o sucesso da GD no Brasil, apontado pelos cenários, é à evolução intelectual da população brasileira, uma força capaz de exigir seus direitos, melhores práticas e se opor as forças dominantes e hegemônicas no poder. Os resultados desta aplicação mostraram que a metodologia de planejamento de cenários apresentou sinais de contribuição para aprendizagem, criatividade, comunicação interna e auxílio no processo de tomada de decisões da organização, sendo indicada a utilização desta ferramenta. As análises finais desta pesquisa permitiram também a elaboração de uma lista com os Fatores Críticos para o Sucesso (FCS) da aplicação da metodologia de planejamento de cenários Shell. / The future with its risks and uncertainties could be rendered as one of the issues that generate more apprehension in organizations. In order to deal with this reality, some companies utilize academy proved techniques and methodologies in order to be competitive. When organizations face situations of high level of uncertainty, insufficient quantity of opportunities, constant changing business environment and problems with internal communication, the planning methodology for prospective scenarios is the most indicated. During the gathering of the theoretical reference, the main prospective scenarios approach came to light. The emphasis was given to the methodology selected for the application, the Shell methodology, which has a historical of utilizing such literature, which is made available by the company itself, as well as a few studies that are being applied in Brazil. As a pilot methodology exercise, the company CEEE has been selected. CEEE deals with the generation, distribution and transmission of electrical energy and is inserted in a sector facing a changing environment scenario. The study area that was chosen for the scenarios was Distributed Generation (DG). The application has completed with the visualization of two scenarios of Distributed Generation in Brazil at the 2035, Personalidade and Alienação scenarios. This stories were initially delimited to the Rio Grande do Sul state. However at the course of its buildings had extended its delimitation to the Brazilian electricity sector. The stories of the scenarios constructed in this study had as main driving forces, institutional, environmental and political issues, which resulted in an optimistic scenario and a pessimist. One of the critical factors for the success of DG in Brazil, as present at the scenarios, was the intellectual evolution of the Brazilian population, a force able to claim their rights, best practices and oppose the dominant and hegemonic forces of power. The results of the research have shown that the planning methodology for prospective scenarios showed signs to contribute to the learning, creativity stimulus and internal communication in the target company, as well as help the process of decision making in the organization, which indicates the utilization of this tool. The final analyzes of this study also contributed to the creation of a list with Critical Success Factors (CSF) influencing in the application of the Shell planning methodology for prospective scenarios.

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2016-05-02T17:06:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcos Leandro Hoffmann Souza_.pdf: 3440478 bytes, checksum: caae8fa8369ed5d7ba91eb263d1a888e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-02T17:06:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcos Leandro Hoffmann Souza_.pdf: 3440478 bytes, checksum: caae8fa8369ed5d7ba91eb263d1a888e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-01-22 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / PROSUP - Programa de Suporte à Pós-Gradução de Instituições de Ensino Particulares / O crescimento da indústria petroquímica é embasado nas aplicações do usuário final, como o setor automotivo e o de construção civil, que são os principais impulsionadores do mercado de estireno. No entanto, o cenário de desenvolvimento e utilização de produtos substitutos aos petroquímicos é realidade e impõe concorrência nas aplicações dos derivados de petróleo. Nesse sentido, a presente dissertação tem por objetivo principal construir um modelo de dinâmica de sistemas para avaliar diferentes cenários, visualizando o comportamento da demanda de estireno ao longo do tempo. Visando a difundir a modelagem de dinâmica de sistemas, foi construído e testado um modelo utilizando o padrão de compartilhamento de modelos XMILE. Na primeira fase do projeto, gerou-se um entendimento maior sobre a temática e elaborou-se um mapa sistêmico, que foi utilizado na segunda fase para construir o modelo de validação das regressões explicativas da demanda de estireno. Na fase três, construiu-se o modelo de visualização e os cenários, avaliaram-se os cenários e utilizou-se o modelo de visualização para gerar aprendizagem. Já na fase quatro, foi construído e avaliado o modelo XMILE quanto à praticidade e portabilidade, com base em diferentes plataformas compatíveis com o XMILE. Os cenários construídos e simulados tiveram o propósito de avaliar o impacto que o uso de materiais substitutos e a variação do PIB causam no mercado de estireno. A utilização da dinâmica de sistemas em conjunto com o planejamento de cenários mostrou-se eficiente, pois diferentes estratégias para o mercado puderam ser avaliadas com base nos cenários simulados. Durante a fase que contemplou a avaliação e a aprendizagem, os participantes não demonstraram sensibilidade para identificar variações na demanda ao longo do tempo, motivo pelo qual diferentes valores para os eixos de incertezas são empregados. Isso reforça a importância da utilização de modelos de dinâmica de sistemas para esse fim. Por fim, o uso do XMILE pode ser uma alternativa para o futuro, no entanto, devido ao limitado uso da ferramenta por desenvolvedores de softwares, não há grande vantagem em empregar esse padrão. / The growth of the petrochemical industry is grounded in end-user applications, such as automotive and construction, which are the main drivers of the styrene market. However, the development and use of substitutes to petrochemical, is already a reality and imposes competition in the applications of petroleum products. In this sense, this thesis is primarily engaged in the construction of a system dynamics model to evaluate different scenarios, visualizing the behavior of styrene demand over time. In order to spread the modeling of dynamic systems, it was built and tested a model using the XMILE models sharing pattern. In the first phase led to a greater understanding of the theme and the construction of a systemic map, which was used in the second phase, to build the validation of explanatory regressions of styrene demand model. In phase three, the display model was built, scenarios, assessment of scenarios and using the display model to generate learning. In the fourth phase, it was built and rated the XMILE model when the convenience and portability, using different platforms compatible with the XMILE. OS built and simulated scenarios, they had the purpose of evaluating the impact on the styrene market, caused by the use of substitute materials and the change in GDP. The use of dynamic systems, together with scenario planning, was efficient, as different strategies to market, could be evaluated based on simulated scenarios. During the assessment phase and learning, participants showed no sensitivity to identify variations in demand over time, where different values for the uncertainties axes are employed. This reinforces the importance of using system dynamics models for this purpose. Also, the use of XMILE may be a good tool in the future, however, due to limited use by software developers, there are great advantages in using this standard.

Organizational adaptability is critical to organizational survival, and executive leadership's inability to adapt to extreme disruptive complex events threatens survival. Scenario planning is one means of adapting to extreme disruptive complex events. In this qualitative interpretive phenomenological study, 20 executives who had lived experience with extreme disruptive complex events and applied scenario planning to help adapt participated in phenomenological interviews to share their experiences related to the application of scenario planning as a means adaptation to extreme disruptive complex events. Participants were from a single large organization with executives distributed throughout the United States and executives from 10 state agencies located within a single state. Using the thematic analysis process, 14 themes emerged. The themes included knowing the difference between adaptation and response, not being afraid to tackle difficult questions, scenario planning is never over because the environment constantly changes, the true measures of scenario planning value are the benefits achieved via the planning exercise versus the business application, and participation should be individuals who can or could have a direct influence on adaptation and do not get bogged down in structured and/or rigid processes, methods, or tools because while useful, they are not required to be successful. The implications for positive social change include the ability for organizations to reduce economic injury and the compound effects of disruption including the social impacts of business injury, disruption, recovery, job loss, and reduced revenue on communities and local economies.

Present day air traffc control is reaching its operational limits and accommodating future traffic growth will be a challenging task for air traffic service providers and airline operators. Free Flight is a proposed transition from a highly-structured and centrally-controlled air traffic system to a self-optimized and highly-distributed system. In Free Flight, pilots will have the flexibility of real-time trajectory planning and dynamic route optimization given airspace constraints (traffic, weather etc.). A variety of advanced air traffc management (ATM) concepts are proposed as enabling technologies for the realization of Free Flight. Since these concepts can be exposed to unforeseen and challenging scenarios in Free Flight, they need to be validated and evaluated in order to implement the most effective systems in the field. Evaluation of advanced ATM concepts is a challenging task due to the limitations in the existing scenario generation methodologies and limited availability of a common platform (air traffic simulator) where diverse ATM concepts can be modeled and evaluated. Their rigorous evaluation on safety metrics, in a variety of complex scenarios, can provide an insight into their performance, which can help improve upon them while developing new ones. In this thesis, I propose a non-propriety, non-commercial air traffic simulation system, with a novel representation of airspace, which can prototype advanced ATM concepts such as conflict detection and resolution, airborne weather avoidance and cockpit display of traffic information. I then propose a novel evolutionary computation methodology to algorithmically generate a massive number of conflict scenarios of increasing complexity in order to evaluate conflict detection algorithms. I illustrate the methodology in detail by quantitative evaluation of three conflict detection algorithms, from the literature, on safety metrics. I then propose the use of data mining techniques for the discovery of interesting relationships, that may exist implicitly, in the algorithm's performance data. The data mining techniques formulate the conflict characteristics, which may lead to algorithm failure, using if-then rules. Using the rule sets for each algorithm, I propose an ensemble of conflict detection algorithms which uses a switch mechanism to direct the subsequent conflict probes to an algorithm which is less vulnerable to failure in a given conflict scenario. The objective is to form a predictive model for algorithm's vulnerability which can then be included in an ensemble that can minimize the overall vulnerability of the system. In summary, the contributions of this thesis are: 1. A non-propriety, non-commercial air traffic simulation system with a novel representation of airspace for efficient modeling of advanced ATM concepts. 2. An Ant-based dynamic weather avoidance algorithm for traffic-constrained enroute airspace. 3. A novel representation of 4D air traffic scenario that allows the use of an evolutionary computation methodology to evolve complex conflict scenarios for the evaluation of conflict detection algorithms. 4. An evaluation framework where scenario generation, scenario evaluation and scenario evolution processes can be carried out in an integrated manner for rigorous evaluation of advanced ATM concepts. 5. A methodology for forming an intelligent ensemble of conflict detection algorithms by data mining the scenario space.