Thesis (MEng (Mechanical and Mechatronic Engineering))--Stellenbosch University, 2007. / ENGLISH: The design, construction and testing of a passive thermal system, a roof solar chimney, for a loft is considered. Unlike conventional solar chimneys the solar collector is constructed from corrugated iron roof sheets with the aim that it can be integrated into existing buildings at a lower cost or used in low cost housing developments. The main objective of the study was to determine the feasibility of such low-cost design to regulate thermal conditions in a loft, that is heating the loft during winter and enhancing natural ventilation during summer, by carrying out an experimental and analytical study. The results obtained from the experimental study showed that for winter the solar chimney, having a channel width, depth and length of 0.7 m, 0.1 m and 1.8 m respectively and with a peal solar radiation of 850 W/m², heated the room air 5°C higher than the ambient temperature during the hottest periods of the day, which is only marginally better than a loft with conventional roof insulation. At night, it was found that reverse airflow occurred through the chimney, cooling the loft down to ambient temperature, due to radiation heat loss from the roof collector to the night sky. For summer operation, the experimental data showed that the chimney was able to maintain the loft at ambient temperature and the analytical study found that the chimney was able to enhance natural ventilation effectively, reaching air exchange rate of 6.6 per hour for the 4.6 m³ volume space. It was also found that the chimney’s performance dropped rapidly and significantly during periods of low solar radiation and at night. A sensitivity analysis illustrated that for both summer and winter operation, the size, tilt angle and absorptivity of the roof collector greatly effected the efficiency and mass flow rates of the system, agreeing well with other literature. These results prove that this low cost solar chimney cooling design was feasible to enhance natural ventilation mainly during hot summer conditions with high solar radiation. Compared to a loft with only conventional roof insulation, the chimney did not perform effectively during the winter to heat the loft up, meaning that winter operation for this specific design is not feasible. Possible improvements to the design include using construction materials with higher thermal capacities to retain heat energy and ensure continued operation during periods of low solar radiation, as well as using selective absorber coatings on the collector surface. It is recommended that further work on the project include the integration of these improvements into the present design and to use the findings obtained from the sensitivity analysis to improve system efficiencies. CFD analysis of the test-rig will be insightful as an additional means to validate and compare with the analytical and experimental data obtained in this report. With the continuation of these studies, this low-cost solar chimney design can be optimised, validated on a commercial scale and built into existing and new housing developments. Incorporating such a passive thermal device will aid homeowners in air regulation and thermal comfort of their living space as well as saving on energy requirements. / Sponsored by the Centre for Renewable and Sustainable Energy Studies, Stellenbosch University

published_or_final_version / Environmental Management / Master / Master of Science in Environmental Management

An increasing number of GPS applications require a high level of accuracy. To reduce the error contributed by the GPS ephemerides, an accurate modeling of the forces acting on GPS satellites is necessary. These forces can be categorized into gravitational and non-gravitational forces. The non-gravitational forces are a significant contribution to the total force on a GPS satellite but they are still not fully understood whereas the gravitational forces are well modeled. This study focuses on two non-gravitational forces: Solar Radiation Pressure (SRP) and the y-bias force. Different SRP models are available in the University of Texas Multi-Satellite Orbit Determination Program (MSODP). The recently developed University College London model was implemented for the purpose of this study. Several techniques to compute parameters associated with SRP models and the y-bias force during an orbit prediction were examined. Using the International GNSS Service (IGS) precise ephemerides as a reference, five different models were compared in the study. Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) residuals were also studied to validate the approach. Results showed that the analytical UCL model performed as well as a purely empirical model such as the Extended CODE model. This is important since analytical models attempt to represent the physical phenomena and thus might be better suited to separate SRP from other forces. The y-bias force was then shown to have a once per revolution effect. The time evolution of the y-bias was found to be dependent on the SRP model used, the satellite Block type, the orbital plane, and the attitude of the satellite which suggests that estimates of y-bias contain errors from other sources, particularly the SRP models. The dependency of the y-bias evolution on the orbital plane suggests that the orientation of the plane towards the Sun is important. / text

Because of the harsh climate of Saudi Arabia, residential buildings on average, consume more than half of the total consumed energy. A substantial share of energy goes to the air-conditioning of buildings. Cooling buildings during summer is a major environmental problem in many Middle Eastern countries, especially since the electricity is highly dependent on fossil fuels. The aim of this study is to obtain a clearer picture of how various measures on the building envelope affects the buildings energy consumption, which can be used as a tool to save energy for buildings in the Middle East. In this study, different energy efficiency measures are evaluated using energy simulations in IDA ICE 4.7 to investigate how much energy can be saved by modifying the building envelope. A two-storey residential building with 247 m2 floor area is used for the simulations. The measures considered are; modifications of the external walls, modification of the roof, window type, window area/distribution, modification of the foundation, shading, exterior surface colour, infiltration rate and thermal bridges. All measures are compared against a base case where the building envelope is set to resemble a typical Saudi Arabian residential. First, all measures are investigated one by one. Thereafter, combinations of the measures are investigated, based on the results from single measure simulations. All simulations are carried out for two cities in Saudi Arabia, both with arid desert climate. Riyadh (midlands) with moderately cold winters and Jeddah (west coast) with mild winter. The results from simulations of single measures show the highest energy savings when changing the window type from single clear glass to double glass with reflective surface saving 27 % energy (heating & cooling) in Riyadh and 21 % in Jeddah. Adding insulation to an uninsulated roof saved up to 23 % and 21 % energy for Riyadh respectively Jeddah. Improvements of the thermal resistance of the exterior walls show 21 % energy savings in Riyadh and only 11 % in Jeddah. Lowering the window to wall ratio from 28 % to 10 % and changing the window distribution results in 19 % (Riyadh) and 17 % (Jeddah) energy savings. Adding fixed shades saves up to 8 % (Riyadh) and 13 % energy (Jeddah) when dimensioned for the peak cooling load. Using bright/reflective surface colour on the roof saves up to 9% (Riyadh) and 17 % (Jeddah) when the roof is uninsulated. For the exterior walls, bright/reflective surface saves up to 5 % (Riyadh) and 10 % (Jeddah) when the walls are uninsulated. The other single measures investigated show less than 7 % energy savings. The results for combined measures show the highest energy savings for two combined measures when improving the thermal resistance of the exterior walls and changing window area/distribution saving up to 52 % (Riyadh) and 39 % (Jeddah). When performing three measures the addition of improved thermal resistance and reflectance of the windows resulted in the highest energy savings, saving up to 62 % (Riyadh) and 48 % (Jeddah). When adding a fourth measure, improving the thermal resistance of the slab shows the highest energy savings, 71 % (Riyadh) and 54 % (Jeddah). Applying all measures on the building envelope results in 78 % (Riyadh) and 62 % (Jeddah) energy savings. Significant energy savings can be achieved with measures on the building envelope. Major savings can be made by adding only 50-100 mm of insulation to the exterior walls and roof. Decreased window area and improvements on the thermal resistance and reflectance on the windows result in significant energy savings. Energy savings achieved with shadings and reflective surface colours decrease significantly when the thermal resistance of the roof and external walls are improved. All measures concerning thermal resistance have a higher impact in Riyadh than in Jeddah due to that a large part of the total heating and cooling is air handling unit (AHU) cooling in Jeddah. AHU cooling is not affected significantly by measures on the building envelope. To optimise energy savings, measures on the building envelope should be considered in combination with measures concerning the AHU. / På grund av det hårda klimatet i Saudiarabien, konsumerar bostadshus mer än hälften av den totala energi som förbrukas. En stor del av den förbrukade energin går till luftkonditionering. Kylningen av byggnader är ett stort miljöproblem i många länder i Mellanöstern, särskilt eftersom elektriciteten till stor del är helt beroende av förbränning av fossila bränslen. Syftet med denna studie är att få en tydligare bild av hur olika åtgärder på klimatskalet påverkar byggnaders energiförbrukning. Tanken är att resultaten ska kunna användas som ett hjälpmedel vid design av mer energieffektiva byggnader i Mellanöstern. I denna studie är olika energieffektivitetsåtgärder utvärderade med hjälp av energisimuleringar i IDA ICE 4.7 för att undersöka hur mycket energi som kan sparas genom att modifiera klimatskalet. Ett bostadshus med 247 m2 golvyta i två våningar används för simuleringarna. De åtgärder som övervägs är; modifieringar av ytterväggar, modifiering av tak, fönstertyp, fönster area/ distribution, modifiering av fundamentet, skuggning, ytskikt, infiltration och köldbryggor. Alla åtgärder jämförs mot ett Base Case där klimatskalet är inställt för att likna en typisk bostad i Saudiarabiens. Först undersöks alla åtgärder en åt gången. Därefter undersöks kombinationer av de studerade åtgärderna, baserat på resultat från simuleringar av enskilda åtgärder. Alla simuleringar utförs för två städer i Saudiarabien, både med torrt ökenklimat. Riyadh (inlandet) med måttligt kalla vintrar och Jeddah (västkusten) med mild vinter. Resultatet från simuleringar av enskilda åtgärder visar högst energibesparing när fönstertypen byts ut från enkelt klarglas till dubbelt reflekterande glas. Med byte av fönstertyp sparas upp till 27 % energi (uppvärmning och kylning) i Riyadh och 21 % i Jeddah. Att isolera taket sparar upp till 23 % och 21 % för Riyadh respektive Jeddah. Förbättrat värmemotstånd i ytterväggarna resulterar i upp till 21 % energibesparing i Riyadh och endast 11 % i Jeddah. Minskning av fönsterarean från 28 % av väggytan till 10 % och omplacering av fönsterna ger19 % (Riyadh) och 17 % (Jeddah) energibesparingar. Solavskärmning med hjälp av fasta skärmtak och fenor sparar 8 % (Riyadh) och 13 % energi (Jeddah) när de är dimensionerad för maximalt kylbehovet. Använda ljus/reflekterande yta på taket sparar upp till 9 % (Riyadh) och 17 % (Jeddah) när taket är oisolerad. För ytterväggar, sparar ljust/reflekterande ytskikt upp till 5 % (Riyadh) och 10 % (Jeddah) när väggarna är oisolerad. De övriga enskilda åtgärderna som undersökts visar mindre än 7 % energibesparing. Resultaten för kombinerade åtgärder visar högst energibesparingar för två kombinerade åtgärder när ytterväggens värmemotstånd förbättras tillsammans med mindre fönsterarea och ändrad fönsterplacering. De två åtgärderna sparar upp till 52 % energi i Riyadh och 39 % i Jeddah. När tre åtgärder utförs, fås den högsta energibesparingen med de två åtgärderna ovan med tillägg av förbättrade fönster med lägre u-värde och högre reflektants. Tillsammans resulterar de tre åtgärderna i en energibesparing upp till 62 % för Riyadh och 48 % för Jeddah. När man lägger till en fjärde åtgärd, fås den högsta besparingen med tillägg av förbättrat u-värde på grunden till de tre tidigare åtgärderna. De fyra åtgärderna sparar upp till 71 % energi i Riyadh och 54 % i Jeddah. Tillämpning av alla åtgärder på klimatskalet resulterar i 78 % (Riyadh) och 62 % (Jeddah) energibesparing. Betydlig reducering av energianvändningen kan uppnås med åtgärder på byggnadens klimatskal. Stora besparingar fås med endast 50 – 100 mm isolering i ytterväggar och tak. Att minska fönsterarean och förbättra fönsternas u-värde och reflektivitet bidrar till stora energibesparingar.  Besparingarna som fås vid solavskärmning och reflektiva ytor på tak och väggar minskar signifikant när taket och ytterväggarna isoleras. Alla åtgärder som förbättrar u-värdet på klimatskalet har en större inverkan i Riyadh än i Jeddah på grund av att en större andel av total uppvärmning och kylning upptas av kylning av inkommande luft i ventilationen. Energin som behövs för att kyla inkommande luft påverkas inte nämnvärt av åtgärderna på klimatskalet. För att optimera energibesparingarna ytterligare, bör åtgärder på klimatskalets övervägas tillsammans med energieffektivitetsåtgärder av ventilationen.

Le climat du bassin méditerranéen est caractérise par un fort impact du déficit hydrique sur la croissance de la végétation. Dans ces régions fréquemment affectées par les sècheresses, l'humidité des sols est un facteur essentiel des processus hydrologiques et de la croissance de la végétation. Des études climatiques récentes ont montré qu'il est probable que le changement climatique accroitra encore l'impact des sècheresses et la pression sur les ressources en eau. Le bassin méditerranéen peut donc être qualifié de "point chaud" du changement climatique. Dans ce contexte, il est important de construire des synergies entre les systèmes d'observation satellitaire et in situ des surfaces continentales et les plateformes de modélisation. Cette thèse a été réalisée en lien avec le programme international HyMEX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment), consacré à l'étude du cycle de l'eau et de la prévisibilité des risques hydro- étéorologiques en Méditerranée, notamment des sècheresses. Une climatologie des variables biogéophysiques (humidité du sol, indice foliaire de la végétation ou LAI -Leaf Area Index-) et des débits des cours d'eau a été construite sur la période 1991-2008, sur une zone couvrant l'Europe, le Moyen-Orient et l'Afrique du Nord. Pour cela, des simulations du modèle du système sol-plante ISBA-A-gs et du modèle hydrologique TRIP ont été réalisées. ISBA-A-gs simule la photosynthèse et son lien avec la conductance stomatique, ainsi que le cycle annuel de la biomasse foliaire. ISBA-A-gs a été pilote par les variables atmosphériques de surface de la réanalyse ERA-Interim du CEPMMT. Le ruissellement et le drainage simules par ISBA-A-gs ont été convertis en débits des rivières par TRIP. Dans un premier temps, la qualité des forçages ERA-Interim a été évaluée sur la France a l'aide de mesures in situ du rayonnement solaire incident et de la réanalyse SAFRAN, qui fournit des précipitations fondées sur un réseau dense de mesures in situ. Des biais ont été mis en évidence sur les deux variables : ERA-Interim sous-estime les précipitations (-27%) et surestime le rayonnement solaire incident (+7%). A l'échelle de l'Europe et du bassin méditerranéen, les biais des précipitations ERA-Interim ont été corriges sur une base mensuelle à partir des précipitations du GPCC. L'impact du biais des précipitations sur la simulation des débits par TRIP a été étudié, ainsi que l'impact des différences des variables biophysiques produites par plusieurs versions du modèle ISBA (dont ISBA-A-gs). L'utilisation d'ISBA-A-gs permet une meilleure représentation des débits d'étiage et l'emploi de données satellitaires pour contraindre le LAI améliore les débits au printemps. Le volume et les variations inter annuelles des débits d'eau douce vers la Méditerranée sont en accord avec les estimations pré-existantes. Enfin, les simulations d'humidité du sol et du LAI ont été comparées aux données in situ et satellitaires disponibles durant la période 1991-2008 sur l'Europe et le bassin méditerranéen, ainsi qu'au modèle ORCHIDEE de l'IPSL. Un bon accord est observe entre (1) l'humidité superficielle du sol simulée par ISBA-A-gs et tirée des observations satellitaires micro-ondes par le projet ESA-CCI Soil Moisture, et (2) la variabilité inter annuelle du LAI simule et le LAI produit par le projet GEOLAND2. Les variations inter annuelles de l'humidité du sol et du LAI sont corrélées lors de périodes clés, mais sur des zones plus étendues avec le modèle qu'avec les observations satellitaires. / The climate of the Mediterranean basin is characterized by marked impact of the soil water deficit on vegetation growth. In these areas, frequently affected by droughts, soil moisture is a key variable for understanding the hydrological processes and the vegetation growth. Recent climatic studies have shown that climate change will probably increase the impact of droughts together with the demand for water resources in this area. As such, the Mediterranean basin is recognized as a "hot spot" of the climate change. In this context, it is important to build synergies between in situ and satellite remote sensing observing systems of the continental areas and modeling platforms. This PhD thesis was performed in the framework of the international HyMEX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment) project, which is focused on the water cycle and on the prediction of hydrometeorological hazards (and particularly droughts) over the Mediterranean basin. A climatology of the biophysical variables (soil moisture, vegetation biomass or LAI –Leaf Area Index-) and river discharges was built for the 1991-2008 period over Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. In particular, simulations were performed by the ISBA-A-gs land surface model and by the TRIP hydrological model. ISBA-A-gs simulates photosynthesis and its link with the stomatal conductance, together with the leaf biomass annual cycle. ISBA-A-gs was driven by surface atmospheric variables derived from the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. Unoff and deep drainage simulated by ISBAA- gs were converted into river discharges by the TRIP model. First, the ERA-Interim forcing was evaluated over the France domain. This evaluation was performed using in situ measurements of the incoming solar radiation (ISR) and with the SAFRAN reanalysis, which provides precipitation data based on a dense network of in situ observations. Biases were evidenced for the two variables: ERA-Interim underestimates precipitation (-27%) and overestimates ISR (+7%). At the scale of Europe and of the Mediterranean basin, ERA-Interim precipitation biases were rescaled on a monthly basis using the GPCC precipitation data. The impact of precipitation biases on the river discharges simulated by TRIP was assessed, as well as the impact of the differences in biophysical variables values generated by several versions of ISBA (including ISBA-A- s). It was shown that the use of ISBA-A-gs permits a better representation of the river discharges at low water levels. The use of satellite-derived product to force the LAI improves river discharge simulations at springtime. The river freshwater inputs (volume and interannual variability) to the Mediterranean Sea are close to pre-existent estimates. Finally, the soil moisture and LAI simulations were compared to in situ and satellite observations, available over the 1991- 2008 period over Europe and the Mediterranean basin, as well as to the IPSL ORCHIDEE model. A good agreement is observed between (1) the surface soil moisture simulated by ISBA-A-gs and derived from satellite microwave observations by the ESA-CCI Soil Moisture project, and (2) the interannual variability of the simulated LAI and of the LAI produced by the GEOLAND2 project. The interannual soil moisture and LAI variations are correlated during key period, but over larger areas with the model than with the remote sensing data

De nombreuses recherches se focalisent sur l'étude des aires de distribution des espèces qui se décalent vers des conditions plus adaptées à leurs besoins physiologiques sous l'effet du changement climatique. Le choix des indices utilisés pour caractériser l'écologie des espèces et définir leur vulnérabilité au réchauffement en cours est souvent conditionné par leur disponibilité, alors qu'il devrait être basé sur les connaissances en écophysiologie qui les concernent. D'autre part, la résolution spatiale parfois grossière utilisée n'est pas toujours pertinente au regard de l'échelle à laquelle les processus biologiques se déroulent. Dans ce cadre, l'objectif de ce travail est de cartographier à fine résolution spatiale les bilans en eau des sols et leurs différentes composantes à l'échelle des forêts de France, et d'évaluer leur intérêt pour modéliser la distribution ou la productivité des espèces au regard des indices traditionnellement utilisés. Dans un premier temps, nous avons modélisé et cartographié les différentes composantes du bilan en eau des sols, et tout particulièrement le rayonnement solaire et la réserve utile maximale en eau (RUM) des sols forestiers à partir des relevés de l'Inventaire Forestier National (IFN). Ces données ont été combinées avec des températures et des précipitations pour spatialiser le bilan en eau des sols forestiers de France. Les principaux résultats montrent l'importance de la nébulosité dans la prise en compte du calcul du rayonnement solaire, et l'inefficacité des indices dérivés de l'exposition pour en simuler les valeurs à l'échelle de la France. Nous avons également déterminé qu'il est possible de réaliser avec des informations simples à collecter une carte des RUM des sols forestiers de France. Elle permet de prédire la croissance des essences avec une efficacité comparable aux valeurs relevées sur des placettes et d'améliorer la modélisation de la distribution de certaines essences. Enfin, nous démontrons que les calculs de bilans en eau qui prennent en compte la réserve en eau des sols sont plus efficaces que les bilans hydriques climatiques ou les pluies, particulièrement pour ce qui concerne les espèces hygrophiles ou xérophiles. Ces résultats laissent penser que l'importance de l'eau a été sous-estimée dans l'analyse de la distribution des espèces et l'étude des conséquences du changement climatique sur les plantes. Les données produites permettent de progresser dans la connaissance de l'écologie des espèces et de mieux caractériser la vulnérabilité des espèces, ouvrant la porte à la création d'outils plus fonctionnels pour aider les gestionnaires à évaluer les impacts du changement de climat et à s'y adapter. / Numerous researches focus on species distribution shifts toward ecological conditions most suited to plants under climate change. Ecological indices used to characterize species ecology and to define their vulnerability over broad areas are often at coarse resolution and are determined by data availability. The aim of this work was to map soil water balance and its different components at a fine spatial resolution, and to evaluate their interest to model plant distribution and growth over the whole French forests. We firstly modeled and mapped the solar radiation and the soil water holding capacity of forest soils. These data were combined with temperatures and precipitation to map the soil water balance. For solar radiation, the main results showed that this parameter is only accurately predicted at the French scale when cloudiness is taken into account. We also showed that soil water holding capacity can be mapped at the French scale using the basic information collected on numerous plots from the French national forest inventory. Values extracted from the soil water holding capacity map allowed predicting tree species growth with efficiency similar to values estimated on plots. We also demonstrated soil water balance is more efficient than climatic water balance or precipitation to model species distribution, mainly for hygrophilous and xerophilous species. These results suggest importance of available water could be underestimated when determining the ecological niche of species. These maps allow to improve species ecology knowledge and to help in the determination of their vulnerability area to climate change.

Le rayonnement solaire est la variable la plus importante pour le calcul du bilan thermique du bâtiment. Son calcul requiert des relations géométriques pour la composante directe et un modèle de ciel pour distribuer le rayonnement diffus sur la voûte céleste. Des modèles développés pour des collecteurs solaires sont utilisés pour calculer le rayonnement solaire atteignant l'enveloppe du bâtiment. Des outils calculent le rayonnement en adaptant des modèles de ciel développés pour l'éclairage naturel. Bien que ces modèles de ciel, avec des genèses différents, servent à calculer le rayonnement solaire, il convient de préciser quel est le plus adapté pour travailler en milieu urbain.En nous appuyant sur une étude des données météorologiques, des modèles de ciel et des techniques numériques, on a mis en place un code susceptible de calculer le rayonnement direct (soleil) et diffus (ciel) et leur interaction avec la géométrie urbaine. La nouveauté réside dans l'évaluation du rayonnement solaire en utilisant un modèle de ciel isotrope et deux anisotropes. L’interaction entre ces modèles et la géométrie urbaine est mise en évidence avec une série d’exemples géométriques progressivement plus complexes. Des méthodes pour tuiler la voûte céleste sont présentées. Les différences entre le rayonnement calculé avec les modèles anisotropes (le modèle de source ponctuelle et le modèle tout temps de Perez) qui sont peu importantes dans une scène dégagée, deviennent significatives dans une scène urbaine. Des contributions ont également été apportées à la mise en place d’une station météorologique ainsi que des procédures pour l’analyse statistique des données et leur contrôle de qualité. / Solar irradiation is the most important parameter for building thermal simulation. Its calculation requires geometrical relationships for the direct radiation from the Sun and a sky model to distribute the radiance over the sky vault. Sky models developed for solar collectors are used to calculate the building’s solar irradiation availability. Some software calculates building’s irradiation by adapting sky models for lighting simulations. These models allow to compute solar irradiation, but the selection of the most suitable model for urban applications has not been defined clearly enough. We developed a code, based on the study of numerical methods, sky models and the necessary meteorological data. It calculates the solar irradiation availability in the urban context. The novelty lies in its capacity to evaluate the solar irradiation from the Sun and the sky by using three sky models: one isotropic and two anisotropic. The interaction between each sky model and the urban context is made clear in a series of progressively more complex geometric examples. Procedures to partition the sky vault are presented.Differences between the predicted irradiance by the anisotropic models (Perez punctual source and Perez All-Weather) are classified as small and large in unobstructed and obstructed scenes respectively. Contributions have also been made to set up a meteorological station. Statistical analyses as well as quality control procedures of meteorological data were also implemented.

Cette thèse traite de la variabilité temporelle intrinsèque de l'éclairement solaire reçu au sol. Les échelles caractéristiques de variabilité sont mises en évidence par l'analyse de longues séries temporelles de moyennes journalières de l'éclairement, pour différents endroits du monde, issues de mesures pyranométriques au sol, d'estimations satellitaires ou de réanalyses météorologiques .Compte-tenu de la nature non linéaire et non stationnaire des données, la transformée adaptative de Hilbert-Huang est utilisée comme outil d'analyse pour tenir compte de la diversité de ces échelles temporelles. On montre ainsi la nature variable des échelles caractéristiques et de leur intensité, ainsi que leur dépendance vis-à-vis du climat.L'application d'une technique adaptative de ré-échantillonnage fractionnaire montre la juxtaposition d'une composante déterministe et d'une stochastique. Pour tous les jeux de données, le cycle annuel déterministe représente la plus grande partie de la variabilité. Toutes les séries temporelle contiennent une composante de variabilité stochastique à haute fréquence, qui est modulée en amplitude par le cycle annuel.L'approche permet également d'évaluer, échelle par échelle, les performances des estimations satellitaires ou issues de ré-analyses par comparaison avec des mesures pyranométriques au sol. Une étude de cas confirme que les estimations satellitaires surpassent les ré-analyses à toutes les échelles temporelles. / The center of focus for this PhD thesis is the intrinsic temporal variability of the surface solar irradiance (SSI). The characteristic time-scales of variability are revealed by analysing long-term time-series of daily means of SSI, such as ground measurements, satellite estimates, or radiation products from global atmospheric re-analyses, for different geographical locations around the world.To account for the wide range of the time-scales of variability, and given the non-linear and non-stationary nature of the data, the adaptive, data-driven Hilbert-Huang Transform is employed as an analysis tool. The time-varying nature of the characteristic time-scales of variability, along with variations in intensity, are thus revealed.An adaptive fractional re-sampling technique is used to discriminate between the deterministic and the stochastic variability constituents. For all datasets, the deterministic yearly cycle is found to account for the largest part of variability. Furthermore, all time-series are found to contain a high-frequency stochastic variability component, that exhibit cross-scale amplitude modulation by the yearly cycle.A refinement to existing methods for assessing the fitness for use of surrogate SSI products in lieu of ground measurements is also proposed. A case study confirms that satellite estimates outperform re-analyses across all time-scales.

[pt] Esta dissertação foi desenvolvida com o objetivo de criar e validar uma metodologia para identificação e classificação do potencial dos grandes clientes de uma concessionária local ao uso da tecnologia de conversão fotovoltaica como alternativa estratégica de racionalização do consumo. O estudo faz uso de dados oficiais de radiação global incidente no Rio de Janeiro, fornecidos pelo Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia do Brasil, e de dados de consumo de grandes clientes fornecidos pela Light. A motivação consiste em oferecer uma ferramenta, à concessionária e ao Regulador, a ser utilizada como subsídio ao planejamento estratégico da empresa, visando ao deslocamento de carga para horários fora da ponta. A metodologia proposta consiste em comparar a curva de energia elétrica consumida pelo cliente com a curva de radiação global incidente no Rio de Janeiro. Assim, utiliza-se uma metodologia fuzzy para identificar e categorizar os usuários de energia elétrica. Os resultados enquadraram os consumidores em cinco diferentes categorias que indicam o nível de potencial para fazer uso da conversão fotovoltaica. Dentre as conclusões, a metodologia desenvolvida mostrou-se eficaz como ferramenta de auxílio e a conversão fotovoltaica uma alternativa interessante, quando se trata da análise do consumo e da radiação global, para pelo menos 85 porcento dos grandes clientes analisados. / [en] This work was developed with the goal of creating and validating a methodology for identification and classification of potential major customers of a local electricity utility to the use of photovoltaic conversion technology as a strategic alternative to rationalize consumption. The study makes use of official data of global radiation incident in Rio de Janeiro, provided by the National Meteorology Institute of Brazil, and consumption data of major customers provided by Light. The motivation is to provide a tool to the electricity utility and the regulator, to be used as input to the strategic planning of the firm seeking to shift load of off-peak times. The proposed methodology consists in comparing the curve of electrical energy consumed by the customer with the curve of global radiation incident in Rio de Janeiro. Thus, the fuzzy methodology is used to identify and categorize the users of electricity. Results framed consumers in five different categories that indicate the level of potential to make use of photovoltaic conversion. Among the conclusions, the methodology was effective as an aid tool and photovoltaic conversion an attractive alternative when it comes to the analysis of consumption and global radiation for at least 85 percent of large customers analyzed.

O café é uma importante comoditty agrícola de exportação no mundo e o Brasil ocupa posição de destaque, como o maior produtor e exportador mundial. Contudo, é um produto bastante vulnerável às flutuações de preço no mercado. Nesse sentido, a diversificação da produção pode ser uma importante estratégia para manter o equilíbrio econômico da propriedade. O presente estudo teve como objetivo avaliar o efeito de diferentes níveis de radiação solar no crescimento e na produção do cafeeiro (Coffea arabica L.), bem como na qualidade do café. A pesquisa foi conduzida no período de janeiro de 2002 a agosto de 2005, na ESALQ/USP, em Piracicaba-SP (22°42’30" S, 47°38’00" W - altitude 550 m). O experimento foi composto de seringueira adulta clone PB 235 e cafeeiro cv. Obatã IAC 1669-20, plantado em janeiro de 2002 no sub-bosque do seringal, interfaceando as árvores de seringueira e em monocultivo (pleno sol). Os tratamentos foram constituídos por um gradiente de luminosidade de 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 80, 90, 95, 98, 99 e 100%, formado por linhas de cafeeiros plantados a diferentes distâncias das árvores de seringueira, tanto dentro como interfaceando o seringal e em monocultivo (pleno sol). O delineamento experimental utilizado foi de blocos casualizados, com 11 tratamentos e 4 repetições. As variáveis analisadas foram relativas ao crescimento (diâmetro do caule e da copa, altura inicial da copa e altura da planta, área foliar total, massa seca acima do solo, número de ramos e nós e comprimento dos internódios, área foliar individual, TAL, RAF, AFE, IAF, TCA, TCR) e produção do cafeeiro (produtividade, rendimento e índice de bienalidade de produção), bem como referentes a qualidade do café (maturação dos frutos, classificação dos grãos por peneira e análise sensorial da bebida). O crescimento e a produtividade do cafeeiro, assim como a qualidade do café foram modificados pela disponibilidade de irradiância. O crescimento e a produtividade aumentaram com o incremento de irradiância. O incremento de irradiância a partir de 70% praticamente não alterou o acúmulo de massa seca da parte aérea da planta e sob elevado sombreamento a massa seca foi muito baixa. A produtividade do cafeeiro alterou muito pouco a partir de 60% de radiação e a aproximadamente 70% se estabilizou. De modo oposto, houve uma melhoria da qualidade do café à medida que foi intensificado o sombreamento, obtendo-se frutos com maior uniformidade de maturação, grãos de maior tamanho e bebida de melhor qualidade. / Coffee is an important exporting agricultural commodity in the world and the Brazil is in a leading position as the world’s largest exporting producer. However, the product is quite vulnerable to market price floating. In that scenario, diversifying products can be an important strategy to keep the economic equilibrium of the property. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of different levels of solar radiation on the growth and production of coffee (Coffea arabica L.), as well as coffee quality. The research was conducted from January 2002 to August 2005 at ESALQ/USP, in Piracicaba-SP (22°42’30" S, 47°38’00" W - altitude 550 m). The experiment comprised an adult rubber tree, clone PB 235, and coffee cv Obatã IAC 1669-20, grown in January 2002 in a rubber tree understory, interfacing with rubber trees and monocrop trees (sun exposed). The treatments included a 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 80, 90, 95, 98, 99 and 100% luminosity gradient, formed by coffee plant rows grown at different distances from the rubber trees, both within and interfacing with the rubber tree plantation and monocrop (full sun). The experimental design was that of random blocks with 11 treatments and 4 replications. The analyzed variables were those related to growth (trunk and crown diameter, initial height of canopy, plant height, total leaf area, above-ground dry mass, number of branches and nodes and internodes length, single leaf area, NAR, LAR, SLA, LAI, G and RGR,) and coffee production (productivity, yield and rate of biannual production), as well as those related to coffee quality (fruit maturity, bean size and sensorial analysis of the beverage). The coffee growth and productivity, as well as the quality, were modified by irradiance availability. The growth and the productivity increased with the solar radiation increment. The irradiance increment starting from 70% practically did not change the accumulation of the plant above-ground dry mass and under high shading the dry mass was very low. The productivity of the coffee plant chanded a little starting from 60% of radiation and the approximately 70% were stabilized. Instead, a coffee quality improvement was observed as shading was intensified, with more maturation uniformity fruit, larger grains and better quality drink.