In non-inferiority trials, the goal is to show how an experimental treatment is statistically and clinically not inferior to the active control. The three-arm clinical trial usually recommended for non-inferiority trials by the FDA. The three-arm trial consists of a placebo, reference, and an experimental treatment. The three-arm trial shows the superiority of the reference over the placebo and comparison of the reference to an experimental treatment. In this paper, I will assess a non-inferiority trial with Bayesian methods. By employing Bayesian analysis, the parameters are random and assign vague prior distributions. I will compare the models involving different prior distributions to assess the best fit model.

Improvement of performance has become ever more critical to construction project success and has been subject to a considerable amount of research and attention over the past two decades. In this regard, the Saudi Ministry of Interior (SMoI) has adopted a new approach - Standard Design Model (SDM) - for the development of its construction programme to successfully manage its complex project portfolio and improve project performance. The SMoI-SDM approach is based on the standardisation of design, material specifications, contract documents and processes. It is anticipated that many lessons will be learnt due to the re-use of SDMs for future projects as well as sharing learning between on-going projects, thus leading to continuous project performance improvement. The aim of this research is to develop a framework for improving the performance of SDMs in SMoI projects. A qualitative case study approach was adopted to provide an in-depth insight into the current performance of SDM projects and identify critical success factors (CSFs) affecting the process of improvement of SDMs project performance. Four case studies were selected involving two on-going and two completed projects. Three key themes were identified from the case studies analysis; these are: adaptability of SDMs to context; contract management; and construction management. Consequently, a framework was developed to improve SDM projects performance as well as the expected performance improvement curve that results from the cumulative learning and experience. The framework validation was conducted through a workshop involving the same stakeholders who participated in the case studies, in which the feedback on possible improvements to the framework was obtained. The framework demonstrated its practicality, clarity and appropriateness for use across the SDM projects.Significantly, this research has the potential to direct standardisation of design and process in construction projects in particular in the public sector and could help achieve a sustained project performance improvement in the Saudi construction industry.

Thesis (MScEng (Civil Engineering))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The primary aim of this study was to evaluate, calibrate and verify the SDF run-off coefficients at a quaternary catchment level in the C5 secondary drainage region (SDF basin 9) and other selected SDF basins in South Africa by establishing the catchment parameters and SDF/probability distribution-ratios. The probability distribution-ratios were based on the comparison between the flood peaks estimated by the SDF method and statistical analyses of observed flow data. These quaternary run-off coefficients were then compared with the existing regional SDF run-off coefficients, whilst the run-off coefficient adjustment factors as proposed by Van Bladeren (2005) were also evaluated. It was evident from this study that the calibrated run-off coefficients obtained are spread around those of Alexander (2003), but were generally lower in magnitude. The adjusted run-off coefficients (Van Bladeren, 2005) had a tendency to decrease in magnitude with increasing recurrence interval, whilst some of the adjusted run-off coefficients exceeded unity. The extent to which the original SDF method overestimated the magnitude and frequency of flood peaks varied form basin to basin, with the SDF/probability distribution-ratios the highest in the Highveld and southern coastal regions with summer convective precipitation. In these regions the flood peak-ratios were occasionally different by up to a factor of 3 or even more. The southern coastal regions with winter orographic/frontal precipitation demonstrated the best flood peak-ratios, varying from 0.78 to 1.63. The adjusted SDF method results (Van Bladeren, 2005) were only better in 26% of all the basins under consideration when compared to those estimated by the original SDF method. On average, the adjusted SDF/probability distribution-ratios varied between 0.30 and 6.58, which is unacceptable. The calibrated version of the SDF method proved to be the most accurate in all the basins under consideration. On average, the calibrated SDF/probability distribution-ratios varied between 0.85 and 1.15, whilst at some basins and individual return periods, less accurate results were evident. Verification tests were conducted in catchments not considered during the calibration process with a view to establish whether the calibrated run-off coefficients are predictable and to confirm that the method is reliable. The verification results showed that the calibrated/verified SDF method is the most accurate and similar trends were evident in all the basins under consideration. On average, the verified SDF/probability distribution-ratios varied between 0.82 and 1.19, except in SDF basins 6 and 21 where the 5 to 20-year return period flood peaks were overestimated by 41% and 56% respectively, which is still conservative. The secondary aim of this study was to develop a customised, user-friendly Design Flood Estimation Tool (DFET) in a Microsoft Office Excel/Visual Basic for Applications environment in order to assess the use and applicability of the various design flood estimation methods. The developed DFET will provide designers with a software tool for the rapid investigation and evaluation of alternative design flood estimation methods either at a regional or site specific scale. The focus user group of the application will comprises of engineering technicians, engineering technologist and engineers employed at civil engineering consultants, not necessarily specialists in the field of flood hydrology. The DFET processed all the catchment, meteorological (precipitation) and hydrological (observed flows) data used as input for the various design flood estimation methods. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die primêre doelwit van die studie was om die SDF-afloopkoëffisiënte op ‘n kwartinêre opvangsgebiedvlak in die C5-sekondêre dreineringsgebied (SDFopvangsgebied 9) en ander gekose SDF-opvangsgebiede in Suid-Afrika te evalueer, te kalibreer en te verifieer deur die opvangsgebiedparameters en SDF/waarskynlikheidsverspreiding-verhoudings vas te stel. Dié waarskynlikheidsverspreiding-verhoudings was gebaseer op die vergelyking tussen die vloedpieke soos beraam deur die SDF-metode en statistiese analises van waargenome vloeidata. Dié kwartinêre afloopkoëffisiënte is met die bestaande streeksgebonde SDF-afloopkoëffisiënte vergelyk, terwyl die afloopkoëffisiënt-aanpassingsfaktore soos voorgestel deur Van Bladeren (2005) ook geëvalueer is. Dit het duidelik uit die studie geblyk dat die gekalibreerde afloopkoëffisiënte verspreid rondom die van Alexander (2003) is, maar in die algemeen laer in omvang. Die aangepaste afloopkoëffisiënte (Van Bladeren, 2005) was geneig om af te neem in grootte met ‘n toename in die herhalingsperiode, terwyl sommige afloopkoëffisiënte ‘n waarde van 1 oorskry het. Die omvang waartoe die oorspronklike SDF metode die grootte en herhaalperiode van vloedpieke oorskat het, wissel van opvangsgebied tot opvangsgebied, met die SDF/waarskynlikheidsverspreiding-verhoudings die hoogste in die Hoëveld en suidelike kusstreke gekenmerk deur konveksie-somerreënval. In hierdie streke het die vloedpiekverhoudings gereeld verskil tot en met ‘n faktor van 3 of selfs meer. Die suidelike kusstreke met kenmerkende ortografiese/frontale winterreënval het oor die beste vloedpiekverhoudings beskik wat gewissel het tussen 0.78 en 1.63. Die resultate van die aangepaste SDF-metode (Van Bladeren, 2005) was slegs in 26% van al die opvangsgebiede beter as die beramings van die oorspronklike SDF-metode. Die aangepaste SDF/waarskynlikheidsverspreiding-verhoudings het, met verwysing na gemiddeldes, tussen 0.30 en 6.58 gewissel, wat onaanvaarbaar is. Die gekalibreerde weergawe van die SDF-metode was die mees akkurate metode in al die opvangsgebiede van belang. Die gekalibreerde SDF/waarskynlikheidsverspreiding-verhoudings het, met verwysing na gemiddeldes, tussen 0.85 en 1.15 gewissel, terwyl die resultate van sommige opvangsgebiede en individuele herhalingsperiodes minder akkuraat was. Verifikasietoetse is uitgevoer in die opvangsgebiede wat nie tydens die kalibrasieproses gebruik was nie om vas te stel of die gekalibreerde afloopkoëffisiënte voorspelbaar is en om te bevestig dat die metode betroubaar is. Die verifikasieresultate het getoon dat die gekalibreerde/geverifieerde SDFmetode die mees akkurate metode is en dat soortgelyke tendense duidelik was in al die relevante opvangsgebiede. Die geverifieerde SDF/waarskynlikheidsverspreiding-verhoudings het, met verwysing na gemiddeldes, tussen 0.82 en 1.19 gewissel, behalwe in SDF-opvangsgebiede 6 en 21 waar die 5- en 20-jaar herhalingsperiode-vloedpieke onderskeidelik met 41% en 56% oorskat is, wat steeds konserwatief is. Die sekondêre doelwit van die studie was om ‘n gebruikersvriendelike “Design Flood Estimation Tool” (DFET) in ‘n Microsoft Office Excel/Visual Basic for Applications omgewing te ontwikkel om die gebruik en toepaslikheid van die verskeie ontwerpvloedberamingsmetodes te bepaal. Die DFET sal ontwerpers voorsien van ‘n sagtewareprogram om alternatiewe ontwerpvloedberamingsmetodes op streek- of plaaslike skaal te ondersoek en te evalueer. Die fokus-gebruikersgroep vir die toepassing van die program sal bestaan uit ingenieurstegnici, ingenieurstegnoloë en ingenieurs werksaam by raadgewende siviele ingenieurs, nie noodwendig vakkundiges in die veld van hidrologie nie. Die DFET was gebruik om al die opvangsgebied-, meteorologiese (reënval) en hidrologiese (waargenome vloeie) data vir die verskeie ontwerpvloedberamingsmetodes te verwerk.

在產品研究開發階段, 決策者常面臨的分類問題是在給定一標準( 控制 )設計(Stand -ard Design)及K 個可行設計(Competitive Designs) 下, 如何將此K 個設計分類成 三個部分, 分別為:(1)比控制母體好(better than the standard);(2)與控制母體無 差異(indifference to the standard);(3)比控制母體差(Worse than the standard )。 當產品分析為韋伯分配(Weibull distribution),Patel and Kingston(1982) 在型Ⅱ 截略計劃(Type Ⅱcensoring plan) 下提出一直觀的分類法則(Classification Rule ),此法則之優點是很簡捷, 但所需之樣本數及截略數需要經由模擬求得。Tseng and Wu(1989)提出挑選較佳設計之局部最適的法則(Local Optimal Selection Rule)。本 論文擬修改此挑選法則, 來探討上述分類問題。 本文首先, 提出一演算法(Algorithm) 來計算型Ⅱ抽樣計劃所需之樣本數及截略數。 其次, 以模擬試驗來驗證此法則之穩定性。最后和Patel and Kingston方法作一比較 。

The architectural design becomes a challenge when considering the climate variables. Some of them act directly on users thermal comfort, such as temperature, humidity wind speed and solar radiation. Knowing that different regions may have different climatic conditions and that architecture should be designed according to the climate characteristics, the use of a standard architectural design for the whole country seems an inappropriate choice, particularly in the Brazilian context. The direct incidence of sunlight through windows can cause visual discomfort resulting from blurring, and/or thermal discomfort in warm climates. On the other hand, excessively shaded openings may produce dark spaces, increasing electricity consumption for lighting. Especially in classrooms, visual and/or thermal discomfort may interfere in the learning process and affecting students performance. The Standard Design of the Technical School of MEC - SDTS-MEC is part of Brazil professionalization program and is designed to be deployed throughout the Brazilian territory. This paper evaluates the shading and natural ventilation performance of the teaching/administrative block of SDTS-MEC building, which concentrates the most occupied environments, the classrooms. A characterization the object of study and parametric analysis of shading and natural ventilation were carried on. For the shading analysis, six different locations and eight guidelines were considered. For the analysis of natural ventilation, eight models were considered, each under a different wind incidence. The analysis of the shading devices showed that 15% are appropriate, 9% excessive and 76% insufficient. The results of natural ventilation analysis showed that among eight simulated wind incidences, two of them (with 45° incidence) displayed a higher pressure differential between opposite facades of the teaching/administrative block. These facades contain most apertures, representing greater potential for air movement inside the classrooms. It was observed that the PET-MEC requires adjustments to be deployed. The adjustment simple in sun protection angle of the brizes, and the choice of the most appropriate guidance in relation to solar radiation and prevailing winds, can improve the thermal performance of the project. Finally, a framework containing a set of recommendations for the implantation of the project considering the sunlight and natural ventilation performance were presented. / A concepção de projetos arquitetônicos torna-se um desafio diante das variáveis climáticas encontradas. Dentre essas estão as que atuam diretamente no conforto térmico dos usuários: a temperatura, umidade e velocidade do ar, e a radiação solar. Sabendo que cada lugar apresenta diferentes condições climáticas e que a arquitetura deve ser projetada de acordo com o clima, o uso de projetos padrão parece uma escolha inadequada para as regiões com climas diferentes, como no caso do Brasil. A incidência direta de raios solares, por meio das janelas, pode causar desconforto visual resultante do ofuscamento, ou desconforto térmico nos climas quentes. Por outro lado, aberturas excessivamente sombreadas podem gerar a necessidade do consumo de energia elétrica com iluminação artificial. Especialmente em escolas, o desconforto visual ou térmico nas salas de aula pode interferir no aprendizado e no desempenho das atividades escolares de alunos e professores. O Projeto Padrão de Escola Técnica do MEC – PPET-MEC é parte do Programa Brasil Profissionalizado e foi desenvolvido para ser implantado em todo o território brasileiro. Este trabalho avalia o desempenho quanto à insolação e à ventilação natural do bloco pedagógico/administrativo do PPET-MEC, onde se concentra a maior parte dos ambientes de permanência prolongada, as salas de aula. O método adotado baseia-se em análises paramétricas do sombreamento e da ventilação natural no PPET-MEC. Para a análise da insolação foram consideradas seis localidades distintas do Brasil, e oito orientações relativas à insolação. Para a análise da ventilação natural foram simulados oito modelos tridimensionais, cada um sob uma incidência de vento diferente. Os resultados da análise de insolação mostraram que as proteções solares analisadas são 15% adequadas, 9% excessivas e 76% insuficientes. Os resultados da análise de ventilação natural mostraram que das oito incidências de vento simuladas, duas incidindo a 45° apresentaram maior diferença de pressão entre as fachadas opostas do bloco pedagógico/administrativo nas quais está localizada a maior parte das aberturas, o que representa maior potencial para a movimentação do ar no interior das salas de aula. Observou-se que o PPET-MEC requer adaptações para ser implantado. O simples ajuste no ângulo de proteção solar dos brizes, e a escolha das orientações mais adequadas em relação à insolação e aos ventos dominantes, pode melhorar o desempenho térmico do projeto. Por fim foi elaborado um quadro de recomendações para a implantação do projeto quanto à insolação e à ventilação natural.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-01T11:58:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 7267685 bytes, checksum: 7941e0f129dcfe23dee81204cbbd6304 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-06-29 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The built environment must be adapted to the climate in which it is inserted to minimize the environmental impact caused by the unbridled consumption of natural resources. The development of new technologies capable of assessing natural lighting can assist in project directed to the use of energy efficient lighting in architecture. Grounded in the literature review related to these new technologies, this study aimed to analyze the potential use of natural light in the classrooms of municipal schools in the city of João Pessoa. The sample represents a number of schools constructed under the standard design adopted in recent managements of the City of João Pessoa, and still in use. The methodology consisted in situ measurements and computer simulations did using the software Daysim. The results showed that there is great potential for use of daylighting, however, there is a need to implement actions to control glare. The existence of 10 schools constructed under the same project in different sites, allowed us to analyze the degree of influence surrounding the availability of natural light into the classrooms. / O ambiente construído deve adequar-se ao clima em que está inserido para minimizar o impacto ambiental causado pelo consumo desenfreado dos recursos naturais. O desenvolvimento de novas tecnologias capazes de avaliar a iluminação natural pode auxiliar no projeto direcionado ao uso energeticamente eficiente da iluminação na arquitetura. Alicerçada na revisão bibliográfica referente a essas novas tecnologias, essa pesquisa teve como objetivo analisar o potencial de aproveitamento da luz natural em salas de aula da rede municipal de ensino, na cidade de João Pessoa. A amostra selecionada representa um conjunto de escolas construídas segundo o projeto padrão adotado nas últimas gestões da Prefeitura Municipal de João Pessoa, e que ainda se encontra em uso. A metodologia adotada consistiu em medições in loco e simulações computacionais feitas com a utilização do software Daysim. Os resultados obtidos permitiram concluir que há grande potencial de aproveitamento da iluminação natural, contudo, verifica-se a necessidade de implementar ações de controle da luminosidade excessiva. A existência de 10 escolas construídas, sob o mesmo projeto, em sítios diferenciados, permitiu ainda analisar o grau de influência do entorno na disponibilidade de luz natural dentro das salas de aula.