Modelos matemáticos de predição de erosão e de produção de sedimentos apresentam um grande potencial para serem utilizados no planejamento dos recursos naturais, pois através destes é possível estimar impactos causados pelas atividades agrícolas. Com base nessa premissa, utilizou-se o modelo SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), em uma pequena bacia rural (1,19 km²) localizada no município de Arvorezinha-RS, para avaliar a sua aplicabilidade e simular a produção de sedimentos em três diferentes cenários de uso e manejo de solo (floresta, cultivo do fumo em sistema convencional e mínimo). A aplicabilidade do modelo foi avaliada através da comparação dos resultados hidrológicos e sedimentológicos simulados pelo modelo, sem utilização da calibração, com valores observados obtidos para uma série de dados de cinco anos de monitoramento hidrossedimentológico (2002-2006). Resultados referentes à aplicabilidade do modelo através da simulação do escoamento superficial para a escala de tempo diário não foram satisfatórios, enquanto que valores mensais e anuais foram mais adequados. Para a vazão líquida, da mesma forma que para o escoamento superficial, as melhores simulações foram verificadas também para vazões mensais e anuais. Já a produção de sedimentos os resultados não foram satisfatórios, tanto para simulações diárias como mensais e anuais. Possíveis razões que explicam os resultados da produção de sedimentos estão relacionados com limitações tanto da equação que simula o aporte de sedimentos (MUSLE), como do equacionamento da propagação dos sedimentos no canal. Os resultados das simulações hidrológicas para diferentes cenários mostraram não haver diferença para o escoamento superficial entre os sistemas convencional e o cultivo mínimo. Em relação à erosão, verificou-se que o cultivo mínimo foi capaz de reduzir em 30% a produção de sedimentos quando comparado com o sistema convencional. / Mathematical models to predict erosion and sediment yield have great potential for use in natural resource planning, as they enable the user to estimate impacts caused by agricultural activities. Based on this premise, the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was applied in a small rural catchment (1,19 km²) in Arvorezinha - RS, in Southern Brazil, to evaluate its applicability and to estimate sediment yield under three different soil management scenarios: forest, conventional tillage with tobacco, and minimum tillage with tobacco. The applicability of the model was evaluated by comparing hydrologic and sediment results simulated by the uncalibrated model with observed values obtained over the course of five years (2002-2006) monitoring program. Applicability results for the model based on simulating surface runoff were unacceptable for the daily time scale, although results for monthly and annual time scales were better. This was also true for flow rate, with better simulations on the monthly and annual time scales. However for sediment yield simulations, the SWAT model did not present satisfactory results over any time frame. This may be related to limitations in the equation that simulates sediment load (MUSLE) or to the equivalency of sediment propagation in the canal. Hydrologic simulations for the different soil management scenarios did not show differences in surface runoff between conventional and minimum tillage, although the minimum tillage was shown to reduce sediment yield by 30% when compared with conventional tillage.

Submitted by Marco Antônio de Ramos Chagas (mchagas@ufv.br) on 2016-07-08T16:37:46Z No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.pdf: 3078004 bytes, checksum: 136f3c45f71c87390ee7502494cdc5b5 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-08T16:37:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.pdf: 3078004 bytes, checksum: 136f3c45f71c87390ee7502494cdc5b5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-23 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / O excesso de sedimentos presentes nos cursos d' água pode ocasionar prejuízos ambientais, econômicos e sociais. Portanto, ferramentas computacionais capazes de simular adequadamente todos os processos relacionados à produção, transporte e deposição de sedimentos são considerados atualmente essenciais para o adequado planejamento e gestão de bacias hidrográficas. Desta forma, objetivou-se avaliar o desempenho do modelo SWAT (Soil and Water Assesment Tool) na estimativa da produção e transporte de sedimentos e também na avaliação dos impactos de possíveis mudanças no uso do solo na produção de sedimentos em condições edafloclimáticas de uma bacia hidrográfica do sudeste brasileiro. As informações necessárias para a representação da bacia do Rio Pomba utilizadas para a aplicação do SWAT foram o Modelo Digital de Elevação hidrograficamente consistente (MDEHC), os mapas de solo e de seu uso, dados de precipitação, vazão e de concentração de sedimentos em suspensão, disponibilizados pela ANA (Agência Nacional de Águas), dados climáticos, disponibilizados pelo INMET (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), e informações de solo obtidos no projeto RADAMBRASIL. Foi necessária a utilização de uma curva-chave de sedimentos para a geração da série contínua de concentração de sedimentos. Foi realizada a análise de sensibilidade para identificar entre os parâmetros do modelo aqueles que mais interferem no seu desempenho. Na sequência, o modelo foi calibrado para a vazão e concentração de sedimentos em suspensão, tendo como seção de controle a estação fluviométrica denominada Cataguases (58770000), utilizando o período de 01/01/1995 a 31/12/1999. Para a validação, foram empregados dois testes distintos: split sample test e proxy basin test. Com o intuito de avaliar a capacidade de utilização do modelo como ferramenta para prever impactos de possíveis mudanças no uso do solo na produção de sedimentos, foram simulados dois cenários: Cenário I: constituiu-se da substituição de área de pastagens por reflorestamento, prevendo um crescimento de 5% ao ano da área de reflorestamento em um período de 10 anos; Cenário II: constituiu-se da substituição de área de pastagens por agricultura, prevendo uma porcentagem de crescimento de 12% ao ano para o mesmo período utilizado no Cenário I. Ambos os cenários hipotéticos foram aplicados na área de drenagem referente à estação fluviométrica, denominada Usina Maurício, localizada a montante da seção de calibração. As análises estatísticas feitas para avaliar o desempenho do modelo nas etapas de calibração e validação foram o coeficiente de Nash e Sutcliffe (E NS ) e o percentual de viés das vazões e concentrações de sedimento em suspensão simuladas em relação às observadas (P BIAS ). Os resultados permitiram constatar que: a) os parâmetros para quais o modelo apresentou maior sensibilidade foram: número da curva inicial para a condição de umidade ACMII (CN2); armazenamento de água no solo (SOL_AWC); tempo de retardo do escoamento superficial direto (SURLAG); fator de práticas de manejo da USLE (USLE_P); declividade média da sub-bacia (SLOPE); coeficiente linear de fluxo de sedimentos (SPCON); condutividade hidráulica do solo saturado (SOL_K); e profundidade da camada de solo (SOL_Z); b) o modelo SWAT pode ser aplicado para simulação hidrossedimentológica na mesma seção de calibração, utilizando uma série temporal de dados diferente; c) o modelo SWAT pode ser aplicado para simulação hidrossedimentológica em seções a montante das quais foi calibrado, porém com características edafoclimáticas semelhantes à área de drenagem utilizada na calibração; d) na simulação de cenários hipotéticos de uso do solo, a substituição de áreas de pastagem por reflorestamento provocou uma redução na concentração média anual de sedimentos em suspensão. Entretanto, a substituição de áreas de reflorestamento por agricultura aumentou a concentração média anual de sedimento em suspensão. / Watercourses’ sediment excess can cause environmental, economic and social losses. Therefore, there are computational tools able to simulate properly all sediments related production, transport and deposition processes that are currently considered essential for the proper watershed planning and management. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model performance to estimate sediments production and transport and also in assessing land usage changes’ possible impacts in sediments production in edaphoclimatic conditions of a river basin in Brazilian southeastern. The necessary information for the representation of Rio Pomba’s basin used for SWAT’s application were the Hydrologically Consistent Digital Elevation Model (MDEHC), the soil and their usage maps, rainfall data, flow and suspended sediment concentration, provided by ANA (Agência Nacional de Águas), weather data, provided by INMET (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), and soil information obtained in RADAMBRASIL project. The use of a sedimentation curve to generate the concentration sediment continuous series was required. The sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the model’s parameters which most affect on its performance. And so on, the model was calibrated to suspended sediment’s flow and concentration, with the drainage area related to the gaging station called Cataguases (58770000) as control section, using the period from 01/01/1995 to 12/31/1999. For validation two different tests were taken: Split Sample Test and Proxy Basin Test. In order to evaluate the model’s utilization capability as a tool to predict possible land use changes’ impacts in sediments production, two scenarios were simulated: Scenario I: consisted of pasture area substitution by reforestation, providing a 5% reforestation area growth per annum in a 10 year period; Scenario II: consisted of pasture area substitution by agriculture, allowing a 12% growth rate per annum for the same period as in Scenario I. Both hypothetical scenarios were applied in the drainage area concerning the gaging station called Usina Maurício, located upstream of the calibration section. The statistical analysis conducted to assess the model’s performance in the calibration and validation steps were the Nash and Sutcliffe (ENS) coefficient and the flow bias percentage and suspended sediment concentrations, simulated in relation to the observed ones (PBIAS). The results demonstrated that: a) the parameters to which the model showed higher sensitivity were: the initial curve number for moisture condition ACMII (CN2); soil water storage (SOL_AWC); direct runoff time delay (SURLAG); USLE practices management factor (USLE_P); sub-basin average slope (SLOPE); sediment flow linear coefficient (SPCON); saturated soil hydraulic conductivity (SOL_K); and soil layer depth (SOL_Z); b) the SWAT model can be applied to hydro-sedimentological simulation in the same calibration section using some different time series data; c) the SWAT model can be applied to hydro-sedimentological simulation to upstream sections of which it was calibrated, but with edaphoclimatic characteristics similar to the drainage area used for calibration; d) the SWAT model can be applied to hydro-sedimentological simulation at conditions of a Brazilian southeastern located watershed; e) to simulate hypothetical scenarios of land use, replacing pasture areas for reforestation resulted in a reduction in the annual average suspended sediment’s concentration. However, the reforestation areas replacement by agriculture increased the annual average suspended sediment’s concentration.

Modelos matemáticos de predição de erosão e de produção de sedimentos apresentam um grande potencial para serem utilizados no planejamento dos recursos naturais, pois através destes é possível estimar impactos causados pelas atividades agrícolas. Com base nessa premissa, utilizou-se o modelo SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), em uma pequena bacia rural (1,19 km²) localizada no município de Arvorezinha-RS, para avaliar a sua aplicabilidade e simular a produção de sedimentos em três diferentes cenários de uso e manejo de solo (floresta, cultivo do fumo em sistema convencional e mínimo). A aplicabilidade do modelo foi avaliada através da comparação dos resultados hidrológicos e sedimentológicos simulados pelo modelo, sem utilização da calibração, com valores observados obtidos para uma série de dados de cinco anos de monitoramento hidrossedimentológico (2002-2006). Resultados referentes à aplicabilidade do modelo através da simulação do escoamento superficial para a escala de tempo diário não foram satisfatórios, enquanto que valores mensais e anuais foram mais adequados. Para a vazão líquida, da mesma forma que para o escoamento superficial, as melhores simulações foram verificadas também para vazões mensais e anuais. Já a produção de sedimentos os resultados não foram satisfatórios, tanto para simulações diárias como mensais e anuais. Possíveis razões que explicam os resultados da produção de sedimentos estão relacionados com limitações tanto da equação que simula o aporte de sedimentos (MUSLE), como do equacionamento da propagação dos sedimentos no canal. Os resultados das simulações hidrológicas para diferentes cenários mostraram não haver diferença para o escoamento superficial entre os sistemas convencional e o cultivo mínimo. Em relação à erosão, verificou-se que o cultivo mínimo foi capaz de reduzir em 30% a produção de sedimentos quando comparado com o sistema convencional. / Mathematical models to predict erosion and sediment yield have great potential for use in natural resource planning, as they enable the user to estimate impacts caused by agricultural activities. Based on this premise, the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was applied in a small rural catchment (1,19 km²) in Arvorezinha - RS, in Southern Brazil, to evaluate its applicability and to estimate sediment yield under three different soil management scenarios: forest, conventional tillage with tobacco, and minimum tillage with tobacco. The applicability of the model was evaluated by comparing hydrologic and sediment results simulated by the uncalibrated model with observed values obtained over the course of five years (2002-2006) monitoring program. Applicability results for the model based on simulating surface runoff were unacceptable for the daily time scale, although results for monthly and annual time scales were better. This was also true for flow rate, with better simulations on the monthly and annual time scales. However for sediment yield simulations, the SWAT model did not present satisfactory results over any time frame. This may be related to limitations in the equation that simulates sediment load (MUSLE) or to the equivalency of sediment propagation in the canal. Hydrologic simulations for the different soil management scenarios did not show differences in surface runoff between conventional and minimum tillage, although the minimum tillage was shown to reduce sediment yield by 30% when compared with conventional tillage.

Modelos matemáticos de predição de erosão e de produção de sedimentos apresentam um grande potencial para serem utilizados no planejamento dos recursos naturais, pois através destes é possível estimar impactos causados pelas atividades agrícolas. Com base nessa premissa, utilizou-se o modelo SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), em uma pequena bacia rural (1,19 km²) localizada no município de Arvorezinha-RS, para avaliar a sua aplicabilidade e simular a produção de sedimentos em três diferentes cenários de uso e manejo de solo (floresta, cultivo do fumo em sistema convencional e mínimo). A aplicabilidade do modelo foi avaliada através da comparação dos resultados hidrológicos e sedimentológicos simulados pelo modelo, sem utilização da calibração, com valores observados obtidos para uma série de dados de cinco anos de monitoramento hidrossedimentológico (2002-2006). Resultados referentes à aplicabilidade do modelo através da simulação do escoamento superficial para a escala de tempo diário não foram satisfatórios, enquanto que valores mensais e anuais foram mais adequados. Para a vazão líquida, da mesma forma que para o escoamento superficial, as melhores simulações foram verificadas também para vazões mensais e anuais. Já a produção de sedimentos os resultados não foram satisfatórios, tanto para simulações diárias como mensais e anuais. Possíveis razões que explicam os resultados da produção de sedimentos estão relacionados com limitações tanto da equação que simula o aporte de sedimentos (MUSLE), como do equacionamento da propagação dos sedimentos no canal. Os resultados das simulações hidrológicas para diferentes cenários mostraram não haver diferença para o escoamento superficial entre os sistemas convencional e o cultivo mínimo. Em relação à erosão, verificou-se que o cultivo mínimo foi capaz de reduzir em 30% a produção de sedimentos quando comparado com o sistema convencional. / Mathematical models to predict erosion and sediment yield have great potential for use in natural resource planning, as they enable the user to estimate impacts caused by agricultural activities. Based on this premise, the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was applied in a small rural catchment (1,19 km²) in Arvorezinha - RS, in Southern Brazil, to evaluate its applicability and to estimate sediment yield under three different soil management scenarios: forest, conventional tillage with tobacco, and minimum tillage with tobacco. The applicability of the model was evaluated by comparing hydrologic and sediment results simulated by the uncalibrated model with observed values obtained over the course of five years (2002-2006) monitoring program. Applicability results for the model based on simulating surface runoff were unacceptable for the daily time scale, although results for monthly and annual time scales were better. This was also true for flow rate, with better simulations on the monthly and annual time scales. However for sediment yield simulations, the SWAT model did not present satisfactory results over any time frame. This may be related to limitations in the equation that simulates sediment load (MUSLE) or to the equivalency of sediment propagation in the canal. Hydrologic simulations for the different soil management scenarios did not show differences in surface runoff between conventional and minimum tillage, although the minimum tillage was shown to reduce sediment yield by 30% when compared with conventional tillage.

This dissertation thesis focuses on complex analysis of the problem, which is the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro area. The aim of this paper is to provide a complex overview and analysis of the current sovereign debt crisis, from the theoretical definition of the term, through an analysis of the causes and consequences of this crisis to outline the economic policy response to it. The text is divided into two parts. The first part deals with theoretical problem solving. In the second part is analyzed and described course of sovereign debt crisis. This section also analyzes in detail causes and consequences of the sovereign debt crisis in certain countries. This section is completed by an analysis of economic policy response to the sovereign debt crisis and an expert estimate of the future development of public debt countries analyzed.

<p></p><p></p><p>Land use alteration and climate change are major contributors to the hydrological cycle within watersheds. They can influence the quantity and quality of water resources, the ecosystem and environmental sustainability. Urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by a noticeable increase in energy and water use. Such changes in land use have many implications for humans to meet the increasing share of the planet’s resources and water issues. Hence, distinguishing the effects of land use change from concurrent climate variability is a particular challenge for studies on operational management processes. In this work, some shortcomings related to climate variability and land use change have been addressed, as applied to land surface temperature (LST) and groundwater resources. Thus, the main goal of this study is to evaluate the impacts of land use change on surface temperature and the impact of urbanization and climate variation on hydrology. The research methodology included modeling approaches that were used to estimate the land surface temperature and the responses of hydrology to climate change and urbanization.</p> <p>Land use maps derived from Landsat datasets were analyzed using several classification techniques to evaluate the intensity and pattern of urbanization and land surface temperature in the Greater Cairo Region (GCR), Egypt. Accuracy of Landsat derived land use data were relatively high and up to 96.5%. Findings indicated that the GCR land use alteration was dynamic and that vegetation loss was the main contributor to urban expansion in the GCR. Consequently, this led to increased LST and modified urban microclimate. The results showed that vegetation cover decreased by 7.73% within a 26-year timespan (1990-2016).</p> <p>Land use alteration impacted not only land surface temperature, but also, combined with variation in climate, affected watershed hydrology, specifically streamflow and baseflow. Changes in streamflow and filtered baseflow in three watersheds: Little Eagle Creek (LEC), Upper West Branch DuPage River (UWBDR) and Walzem Creek watershed, from 1980 to 2017, caused by climate alteration and land use change were separated and accessed using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. Results showed that SWAT performed well in capturing the streamflow and baseflow in urban catchments. SWAT model calibration and validation was within acceptable levels for streamflow and baseflow. About 30%, 30% and 12% of the LEC, UWBDR and Walzem Creek watershed areas changed from agricultural to urban areas. Findings for the LEC watershed indicated that the variability in the baseflow and streamflow appeared to be heavily driven by the response to climate change in comparison to the variability due to altered land use. The contribution of both land use alteration and climate variability on the flow variation was higher in the UWBDR watershed. In Walzem Creek, the alteration in streamflow and baseflow appeared to be driven by the effect of climate variability more than that of urbanization.</p> <p>Finally, the impacts of basin lithology and physical properties on baseflow were examined using multiple regression models. Results suggest that the baseflow index (BFI) can be predicted using the basin’s physical and geological characteristics. This included different land uses and climate variables with high accuracy and low relative errors. BFI was found to be highly driven by precipitation and fractional areas of different lithologies in the basins in various regions. These could be estimated with a high accuracy, as opposed to evapotranspiration that caused lower model accuracy.</p> <p>Information gleaned from these outputs can help in understanding the dynamics of land use change and climate variation, in order to help policy-makers predict and plan for future expansion in developing countries and across the globe, in achieving long-term sustainability of soil and water resources and their impact on climate change. Increasing efforts to prevent further urbanization and vegetation loss should be regarded as a practical management strategy and are of vital significance to many communities. In addition, the regression models developed in this study can be easily exploited in other areas with poor hydrological data quality and ungauged sites in order to estimate the amount of groundwater discharge.</p><p></p><p></p>

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Militancy inspired by Islamists is escalating globally, and government action is necessary to protect vulnerable populations. Security professionals generally agree that governance may complement the use of force to defeat militants; however, current doctrine does not address the concurrent integration of governance in a comprehensive strategy. This interpretive case study explored Pakistan's application of governance during the 2009 Khyber operation in Swat Valley, code-named Operation Rah-e-Rast. The central research question focused on how governance activities were integrated with military operations to subdue militancy. Data were collected through interviews with 6 planners, Pakistani secondary source survey data, and government artifacts. Data were inductively coded using a progressive axial coding process and validated through methodological triangulation. Data were then analyzed using a case study analytical model, grounded in neo-Clausewitzian theoretical principles, to derive key themes. Key findings indicate that an interministry collaborative approach to regain the public trust was more effective in placating violence than was solely using military action. Sound governance, enabled by strategic communications and intelligence, fostered tribal relationships that promoted confidence and undermined the militant support base. The civil-military planning protocols were successful, but mainly ad-hoc and suboptimized. Formal training, standing civil-military planning forums, and planning process improvements stemming from the Pakistan experience could instill social change by assisting national leaders in developing a cogent countermilitancy strategy to defeat the global Islamist movement.

The contamination of rivers with nitrate from agricultural diffuse sources is not just a risk for ecosystems and their services, but also a health risk for water users. The Great Lakes (USA and Canada) are suffering from eutrophication problems. The Midwest is one of the richest farming land and one of the most productive areas on the planet. Thus, agriculture is one of the biggest drivers of local economies, accounting for billions of dollars of exports and thousands of jobs. The Midwest encompasses the Corn Belt region, a specialised system in corn production. Many of its agricultural basins drain into the Great Lakes. Corn requires a heavy amount of fertilizer to keep the best-yielding varieties. Some of the soils also require artificial drainage due to their low permeability, and to enable agriculture. The Cedar Creek watershed (CCW) in northeastern Indiana in the Corn Belt region is used as a case study area in this dissertation. Intensive agriculture in the CCW is characterised mainly by corn and soybean production. Tile drains are used, ejecting nitrate directly into the water. To find hotspots of nitrate is, then, crucial to avoid water quality deterioration. Identification of critical source areas of nitrate (CSAs) impairing waters is challenging. There are, mainly, two methodologies to identify hotspots of nitrate for the implementation of Best Management Practices (BMP): the targeting technique and the optimization approach. The targeting technique tends to identify hotspots based on loads of nitrate, omitting geomorphological watershed characteristics, costs for BMP implementation, and their spatial interactions. On the other hand, the parsimonious strategy does contemplate the trade-off of the economic and environmental contribution but requires sophisticated computational resources and it is more data-intense. This research presents a new framework based on the synergistic combination of both methodologies for the identification of CSAs in agricultural watersheds. Changes in watershed response due to alternative BMP applications were assessed using the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Outputs in SWAT (nitrate export rates and nitrate concentration at the subbasin level) were used to evaluate the changes in water quality for the CCW. The newly developed targeting technique (HosNIT) considers SWAT outputs and intrinsic watershed parameters such as stream order, crop distance to the draining stream, and downstream nitrate enrichment/dilution effects within the river network. HosNIT establishes a workflow, based on a threshold system for the parameters considered, in order to spatially identify priority areas from where nitrate is reaching water. The more precise hotspots of nitrate are identified, the more improved the allocation of limited resources for conservation practices will be. HosNIT allows for a more spatially accurate CSAs identification, which enables a parsimonious optimization for BMP implementation. This parsimonious strategy will test BMP’s performance based on the environmental contribution and cost at the hotspots determined by HosNIT. The optimised solution for the CCW comes from the environmental contribution (decrease percentage of nitrate concentration at outlets) per dollar spent. For this case study means a year average of 3.7% of nitrate reduction with the optimised selection of scenarios for the studied period.

The main goal of this dissertation is to develop a seasonal water balance model for evaporation, runoff and water storage change based on observations from a large number of watersheds, and further to obtain a comprehensive understanding on the dominant physical controls on intra-annual water balance. Meanwhile, the method for estimating evaporation and water storage based on recession analysis is improved by quantifying the seasonal pattern of the partial contributing area and contributing storage to base flow during low flow seasons. A new method for quantifying seasonality is developed in this research. The difference between precipitation and soil water storage change, defined as effective precipitation, is considered as the available water. As an analog to climate aridity index, the ratio between monthly potential evaporation and effective precipitation is defined as a monthly aridity index. Water-limited or energy-limited months are defined based on the threshold of 1. Water-limited or energy-limited seasons are defined by aggregating water-limited or energy-limited months, respectively. Seasonal evaporation is modeled by extending the Budyko hypothesis, which is originally for mean annual water balance; while seasonal surface runoff and base flow are modeled by generalizing the proportionality hypothesis originating from the SCS curve number model for surface runoff at the event scale. The developed seasonal evaporation and runoff models are evaluated based on watersheds across the United States. For the extended Budyko model, 250 out of 277 study watersheds have a Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) higher than 0.5, and for the seasonal runoff model, 179 out of 203 study watersheds have a NSE higher than 0.5. Furthermore, the connection between the seasonal parameters of the developed model and a variety of physical factors in the study watersheds is investigated. For the extended Budyko model, vegetation is identified as an important physical factor that related to the seasonal model parameters. However, the relationship is only strong in water-limited seasons, due to the seasonality of the vegetation coverage. In the seasonal runoff model, the key controlling factors for wetting capacity and initial wetting are soil hydraulic conductivity and maximum rainfall intensity respectively. As for initial evaporation, vegetation is identified as the strongest controlling factor. Besides long-term climate, this research identifies the key controlling factors on seasonal water balance: the effects of soil water storage, vegetation, soil hydraulic conductivity, and storminess. The developed model is applied to the Chipola River watershed and the Apalachicola River basin in Florida for assessing potential climate change impact on the seasonal water balance. The developed model performance is compared with a physically-based distributed hydrologic model of the Soil Water Assessment Tool, showing a good performance for seasonal runoff, evaporation and storage change.