Submitted by Marcos Monteiro (marcosjpmonteiro@gmail.com) on 2013-11-25T12:36:26Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_MarcosMonteiro_BibDigital.pdf: 6452091 bytes, checksum: a383cce225e07feeae297413e9250c18 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by ÁUREA CORRÊA DA FONSECA CORRÊA DA FONSECA (aurea.fonseca@fgv.br) on 2013-12-04T11:51:40Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_MarcosMonteiro_BibDigital.pdf: 6452091 bytes, checksum: a383cce225e07feeae297413e9250c18 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2013-12-16T15:51:50Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_MarcosMonteiro_BibDigital.pdf: 6452091 bytes, checksum: a383cce225e07feeae297413e9250c18 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-12-16T15:52:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_MarcosMonteiro_BibDigital.pdf: 6452091 bytes, checksum: a383cce225e07feeae297413e9250c18 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-04-24 / This dissertation is composed of three articles. Two of them investigate taxation issues and the third is a paper on savings. Although the subject of analysis is different among them, they all share the com- mon feature of applying panel-data econometric techniques on newly assembled datasets. Two of the essays employ GMM estimation on dynamic panel frameworks and the remaining one is an application on panel limited-dependent variable models. A short summary of each paper is provided below. It starts with the two essays on taxation, which share a common contextualizing section on the Brazilian state level value-added tax (ICMS), and finishes with the one on savings. Essay 1 makes an assessment of the importance of enforcement as an instrument to deter tax evasion and increase tax revenue, in the case of a developing country Value-Added Tax (VAT). It uses data from the Brazilian State of São Paulo. To cope with inertia in the revenue series and potential endogeneity, dy- namic panel-data techniques are employed. The level of regional GDP and two proxies for enforcement, namely the quantity and the value of penalties inflicted, were used as covariates. The results indicate a significant impact of the enforcement on tax revenues. The paper indirectly provides evidence on how non-compliance is affected by the penalty for detected evasion. Its conclusions are also relevant for the discussions on Brazilian fiscal federalism, specially in the case of a potential tax reform. Essay 2 examines one of the main tasks of a tax revenue service, which is to periodically choose which taxpayers will be subject to auditing. Improved efficiency in the audit selection mechanism is likely to impact positively the probability of fraud detection, resulting in better allocation of scarce fiscal resources. This paper attempts to design such a mechanism by computing the taxpayers probabilities of non-compliance. This is done by optimally combining on latent-dependent variable formulations several already existing indicators with information of ex-post audit results on a restricted sample of audited companies. With the estimated coefficients, tax non-compliance probabilities are calculated to the entire universe of taxpayers. The method was employed on a panel of firm-level micro-data from the state of São Paulo VAT tax (ICMS), corresponding to the fiscal region of Guarulhos. Essay 3 revisits the stylized fact of low saving rates in Latin American countries over the last decades. To investigate this situation, it employs panel data techniques to identify savings determinants and per- form counterfactual analysis using China, whose savings rate have been booming in the same period. Special attention is given to Brazil, which has fallen far behind its BRIC peers on this matter. The pa- per contributes to the existing literature in several ways. It combines two different and comprehensive datasets to encompass a vast array of savings determinants, including social security and demographic factors. It restates previous findings in the literature, albeit benefiting from the robustness conferred by richer datasets. For some Latin American countries, it reveals that their saving rates would increase if they perform more like China in other areas, but the increment would not be so dramatic. / Esta tese é composta por três artigos. Dois deles investigam assuntos afeitos a tributação e o terceiro é um artigo sobre o tema 'poupança''. Embora os objetos de análise sejam distintos, os três possuem como característica comum a aplicação de técnicas de econometria de dados em painel a bases de dados inéditas. Em dois dos artigos, utiliza-se estimação por GMM em modelos dinâmicos. Por sua vez, o artigo remanescente é uma aplicação de modelos de variável dependente latente. Abaixo, apresenta-se um breve resumo de cada artigo, começando pelos dois artigos de tributação, que dividem uma seção comum sobre o ICMS (o imposto estadual sobre valor adicionado) e terminando com o artigo sobre poupança. O primeiro artigo analisa a importância da fiscalização como instrumento para deter a evasão de tributos e aumentar a receita tributária, no caso de um imposto sobre valor adicionado, no contexto de um país em desenvolvimento. O estudo é realizado com dados do estado de São Paulo. Para tratar questões relativas a endogeneidade e inércia na série de receita tributária, empregam-se técnicas de painel dinâmico. Utiliza-se como variáveis de controle o nível do PIB regional e duas proxies para esforço fiscal: a quantidade e o valor das multas tributárias. Os resultados apontam impacto significativo do esforço fiscal nas receitas tributárias. O artigo evidencia, indiretamente, a forma como a evasão fiscal é afetada pela penalidade aplicada aos casos de sonegação. Suas conclusões também são relevantes no contexto das discussões sobre o federalismo fiscal brasileiro, especialmente no caso de uma reforma tributária potencial. O segundo artigo examina uma das principais tarefas das administrações tributárias: a escolha periódica de contribuintes para auditoria. A melhora na eficiência dos mecanismos de seleção de empresas tem o potencial de impactar positivamente a probabilidade de detecção de fraudes fiscais, provendo melhor alocação dos escassos recursos fiscais. Neste artigo, tentamos desenvolver este mecanismo calculando a probabilidade de sonegação associada a cada contribuinte. Isto é feito, no universo restrito de empresas auditadas, por meio da combinação 'ótima' de diversos indicadores fiscais existentes e de informações dos resultados dos procedimentos de auditoria, em modelos de variável dependente latente. Após calculados os coeficientes, a probabilidade de sonegação é calculada para todo o universo de contribuintes. O método foi empregado em um painel com micro-dados de empresas sujeitas ao recolhimento de ICMS no âmbito da Delegacia Tributária de Guarulhos, no estado de São Paulo. O terceiro artigo analisa as baixas taxas de poupança dos países latino-americanos nas últimas décadas. Utilizando técnicas de dados em painel, identificam-se os determinantes da taxa de poupança. Em seguida, faz-se uma análise contrafactual usando a China, que tem apresentado altas taxas de poupança no mesmo período, como parâmetro. Atenção especial é dispensada ao Brasil, que tem ficado muito atrás dos seus pares no grupo dos BRICs neste quesito. O artigo contribui para a literatura existente em vários sentidos: emprega duas amplas bases de dados para analisar a influência de uma grande variedade de determinantes da taxa de poupança, incluindo variáveis demográficas e de previdência social; confirma resultados previamente encontrados na literatura, com a robustez conferida por bases de dados mais ricas; para alguns países latino-americanos, revela que as suas taxas de poupança tenderiam a aumentar se eles tivessem um comportamento mais semelhante ao da China em outras áreas, mas o incremento não seria tão dramático.

Abstract Heavy menstrual bleeding causes significant health and social problems for up to 30% of women at some point of their lives. Medical treatment is not always sufficient or tolerated by women. Hysterectomy is a definitive solution, but it is a major operation associated with long disability and potential severe complications. Endometrial ablation techniques have been developed to avoid the risks related to hysterectomy. Further evolution of these techniques also offers a possibility of a quick and simple outpatient procedure. This study evaluated the long-term effects of endometrial ablation on heavy menstrual bleeding and later endometrial diagnostics. Another aim was to compare the costs when the procedure was performed in different settings. Finally, the effect of hyaluronic acid gel on intrauterine adhesion formation was assessed. Endometrial ablation had a good long-term effect on heavy menstrual bleeding in a retrospective study of 172 women, and up to 84% avoided hysterectomy during the follow-up time mean of 5 years. Seventy-six per cent of the patients were satisfied with the procedure. Due to the formation of intrauterine adhesions, prior endometrial ablation compromised later diagnostics of endometrium, and outpatient endometrial sampling failed in 23% of 57 women who had undergone endometrial ablation a mean of 6 years earlier, but that did not seem to have clinical importance. In a prospective, randomized and double-blind pilot study of 36 patients, hyaluronic acid gel did not prevent the formation of intrauterine adhesions. In a cost-minimisation analysis based on real resource use, performing endometrial ablation as an outpatient procedure under local anaesthetic instead of a day case procedure performed in the operating theatre under general anaesthetic reduced the costs significantly, from 1,865 to 1,065 euros. In conclusion, the results of this study suggest that endometrial ablation is a good alternative for the treatment of heavy menstrual bleeding, and remarkable cost savings can be achieved by taking the procedure out of the operating theatre. The formation of intrauterine adhesions is common and cannot be prevented with hyaluronic acid gel. / Tiivistelmä Runsaat kuukautiset aiheuttavat merkittävää terveydellistä ja sosiaalista haittaa jopa kolmasosalle naisista jossain elämänvaiheessa. Lääkehoito ei aina ole riittävä, eivätkä kaikki naiset voi tai halua käyttää sitä. Kohdunpoisto on lopullinen ratkaisu, mutta se on iso leikkaus, johon liittyy pitkä työkyvyttömyys ja vakavien komplikaatioiden riski. Näiden riskien välttämiseksi on kehitetty kohdun limakalvon tuhoavia tekniikoita, joista nykyisin eniten käytetty on limakalvon tuhoaminen lämpöhoidon avulla. Nykytekniikoilla toimenpide voidaan myös tehdä helposti ja nopeasti polikliinisesti. Tässä tutkimuksessa arvioitiin kohdun limakalvon lämpöhoidon pitkäaikaisvaikutuksia runsaiden kuukautisten hoidossa ja sen vaikutusta myöhemmin tapahtuvaan kohdun limakalvon diagnostiikkaan. Niin ikään verrattiin päiväkirurgisen ja polikliinisen toimenpiteen kustannuksia. Lopuksi tutkittiin pystytäänkö hyaluronihappogeelin avulla estämään kohdunsisäisten kiinnikkeiden muodostumista. Lämpöhoidolla oli hyvä pitkäaikaisvaikutus runsaisiin kuukautisiin 172 naista käsittäneessä retrospektiivisessä tutkimuksessa, ja kohdunpoistolta välttyi keskimäärin 5 vuoden seuranta-aikana 84 % naisista. 76 % naisista oli tyytyväisiä hoitoon. Lämpöhoidon aiheuttamat kohdunsisäiset kiinnikkeet vaikeuttivat myöhempää kohdun limakalvon diagnostiikkaa. Polikliininen imunäytteen otto ei onnistunut 23 %:lla 57 potilaasta, joille oli tehty lämpöhoito keskimäärin 6 vuotta aikaisemmin. Tällä ei kuitenkaan näyttänyt olevan juurikaan kliinistä merkitystä. 36 potilasta käsittäneessä, prospektiivisessa, satunnaistetussa kaksoissokkotutkimuksessa hyaluronihappogeelin avulla ei pystytty estämään kohdunsisäisten kiinnikkeiden muodostumista. Todelliseen resurssien käyttöön perustuvassa kustannusten minimointianalyysissa todettiin, että tekemällä lämpöhoito polikliinisesti paikallispuudutuksessa leikkaussalissa nukutuksessa tehtävän toimenpiteen sijasta, kustannukset laskevat 1865 eurosta 1065 euroon. Tämän tutkimuksen perusteella kohdun limakalvon lämpöhoito tarjoaa hyvän vaihtoehdon runsaiden kuukautisten hoitoon, ja sen kustannuksia voidaan merkittävästi pienentää tekemällä toimenpide polikliinisesti. Kohdunsisäisten kiinnikkeiden muodostuminen on tavallista, eikä sitä pystytä estämään hyaluronihappogeelin avulla.

In this research, carbon emissions and carbon savings in the smart grid are modelled and quantified. Carbon emissions are defined as the product of the activity (energy) and the corresponding carbon factor. The carbon savings are estimated as the difference between the conventional and improved energy usage multiplied by the corresponding carbon factor. An adaptive seasonal model based on the hyperbolic tangent function (HTF) is developed to define seasonal and daily trends of electricity demand and the resultant carbon emissions. A stochastic model describing profiles of energy usage and carbon emissions for groups of consumers is developed. The flexibility of the HTF for modelling cycles of energy consumption is demonstrated and discussed with several case studies. The analytical description to determine electricity grid carbon intensity in the UK is derived, using the available fuel mix data from the Elexon portal. The uncertain realisation of energy data is forecasted and assimilated using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The numerical optimisation of carbon emissions and savings in the smart grid is further performed using the ensemble-based Closed-loop Production Optimisation Scheme (EnOpt). The EnOpt involves the optimisation of fuel costs and carbon emissions (maximisation of carbon savings) in the smart grid subject to the operational control constraints. The software codes for the based on the application of EnKF and EnOpt are developed, and the optimisation of energy, cost and emissions is performed. The numerical simulation shows the ability of EnKF in forecasting and assimilating the energy data, and the robustness of the EnOpt in optimising costs and carbon savings. The proposed approach addresses the complexity and diversity of the power grid and may be implemented at the level of the transmission operator in collaboration with the operational wholesale electricity market and distribution network operators. The final stage of work includes the quantification of carbon emissions and savings in demand response (DR) programmes. DR programmes such as Short Term Operating Reserve (STOR), Triad, Fast Reserve, Frequency Control by Demand Management (FCDM) and smart meter roll-out are included, with various types of smart interventions. The DR programmes are modelled with appropriate configurations and assumptions in power plants used in the energy industry. This enables the comparison of emissions between the business-as-usual (BAU) and the smart solutions applied, thus deriving the carbon savings. Several case studies involving the modelling and analysing DR programmes are successfully performed. Thus, the thesis represents novel analytical and numerical techniques applied in the fast-growing UK market of smart energy solutions.

El principal objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar las diferencias en rentabilidad obtenidas por medio de los Multifondos (Fondo Tipo 1, Fondo Tipo 2 y Fondo Tipo 3) frente a las obtenidas con el Fondo Único (Fondo Tipo 2) desde el año 2007 al 2014 con la finalidad de evaluar el impacto positivo de este nuevo esquema en el sistema pensionario y en la inversión nacional: para llevar a cabo este análisis se utiliza el índice Sharpe para cuantificar el esquema Multifondos en el SPP y la paradoja de Feldstein-Horioka para visualizar el impacto en la inversión. / The main objective of this envestigation is to evaluate the differences in profitability obtained through the Multi-Funds (Fund Type 1, Fund Type 2 and Fund type 3) compared to those obtained with the fund that exixts sice the creation of the system (Fund Type 2) from 2007 to 2014 with the purpose of evaluating the positive impact of this new scheme in the pension system and in the national investment; to carry out this analysis the Sharpe Index is used to quantify the effect of the Multi-Fund scheme in the Private Pension System and the Feldstein-Horioka Paradox to mesure the impact on the domestic investment. / Trabajo de investigación

The major goal of this work is to compare positions of different institutional types active in the banking sector in the Czech Republic. The emphasis is being given to the description of gradual mutual convergence and interactions of particular institutional types in the context of changes undergoing in a transition economy since 1990. The second part of this work analyses the framework for the operation of different institutional types and compares their positions against clients, owners and supervisor. The last part of the work is a comparative analysis of economic indicators for each institutional type in the context of changes in the market and legal environment since 2004.

Methodological part: financial plan, appreciation of assets, debt. Operative part: Examples of financial plans for free types of households.

There are many distribution tasks, that vary in a number of vehicles, time windows, dividend or undivided delivery or if it is static problems or dynamic problems. In this essay I focus just on few of them. At first I put my mind to simple statistic distribution task with one vehicle. Later I extend it with time windows, when the point can be served by one car and by many cars. In the essay it will be solved the real task of distribution and delivery transportation of infusion in the hospitals. Because of the difficulty of solution I have to use the heuristic methods - Method of nearest neighbour, Savings method and Insert method. All these methods are modified by capacity requirements, time windows and also observence of the rules, which the drivers have to keep during a distribution. The aim is to minimize the distance travelled by the vehicles. And at least the company could be recommended the best solution.

This thesis deals with the optimization of distribution of products to consumers based on a real case study of a particular company from Opava. For this purpose, a mathematical optimization model is used to illustrate the vehicle routing problem. The study will also offer an explanation on the relevancy of heuristic methods, mainly with respect to their application in solving real life situations analogous to the one surveyed. On the basis of chosen heuristic methods (i.e. the nearest neighbour algorithm and the savings algorithm) and having taken into account the restricting conditions of the company, four algorithms were designed. These four algorithms are programmed in Visual Basic for Applications MS Excel 2007. They are aimed at solving the real problems with the distribution of ordered products that the particular company must deal with. The thesis compares the results provided by an employee of this company, and the results presented by the designed algorithms.

The diploma thesis deals with the use of heuristic methods for solving messenger problems. The first part focuses on the proposed vehicle routing problems, especially on travelling salesman problems and the messenger problems. For individual problems are theoretically discussed mathematical models for variants with one or more vehicles and the expansion of the use of time windows and capacity constraints. The second part introduces heuristic algorithms for the method of nearest neighbour, savings method, insertion method and the exchange method on the travelling salesman problems. Then all of the mentioned algorithms are modified for use in three variants of messenger problem. First, the disposition of one vehicle, the second allows more messengers in the same starting point and the last option is more messengers at different starting points. The last part describes computational experiments and comparison of results provided by different methods. The diploma thesis includes application for solving messenger problems using savings methods programmed in Visual Basic for Application in MS Excel.

Differences in financial systems are often named as a prime candidate for the current state of global imbalances. This paper focuses on cross-country heterogeneity in access to international financial markets that derives from the presence of capital controls and argues that the process of capital liberalization over the past decades can explain a substantial fraction of US net external liabilities. We present a simple two-country model with an internationally traded bond, in which capital controls are reflected in the presence of borrowing and lending constraints on that bond. In a US versus the rest of the world (RoW) scenario, we perform experiments that are largely consistent with countrie' liberalization experiences. A reduction in the RoW's controls on capital outflows and/or a tightening in the RoW's borrowing constraint enables the US economy to better insure against consumption risk relative to the rest of the world, and therefore decreases its motives for precautionary asset holdings relative to the rest of the world. As a result of these asymmetric shifts in countries' barriers to capital mobility, the US runs a long run external deficit.