This dissertation consists of five separate essays (and a short introductory chapter) that analyze the effects of debt policy on private consumption. Essay 1: Government Debt and Private Consumption: Theory and Evidence. The Ricardian equivalence theorem has been widely debated since (at least) the seventies. The theorem states that households should not change their consumption path in response to changed timing of taxes, given the path of government consumption. In this essay, theoretical models giving rise to the equivalence result as well as models predicting deviations from debt neutrality are presented. In general, the Ricardian models are based on unrealistic assumptions, such as infinite horizons, perfect capital markets and lump-sum taxes. The issue of Ricardian equivalence is thus perhaps better viewed as a question concerning to what extent the equivalence hypothesis is a reasonable approximation of the real world. This could only be established by empirical studies. To formulate a test of Ricardian equivalence, it is however vital to extend the standard analysis in deterministic models to stochastic models. In a stochastic model we need to incorporate the fact that agents have to make predictions about future levels of government consumption, and that public debt might be a useful predictor for that purpose. It is therefore necessary that an empirical study distinguishes between debt as a potential source of net wealth, which is the concern of the equivalence proposition, and debt's role as a signal of future levels of government consumption, which is due to the stochastic nature of the world. It is argued that there are few empirical studies that make this distinction, and in case the distinction is made, the evidence is in favor of the Ricardian equivalence proposition, namely that public debt is not net wealth to households. Changing the timing of taxes will therefore not change private consumption. In other words, although the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis is burdened with unrealistic assumptions, it seems (historically) to provide a reasonable approximation of actual data. Essay 2: An Investigation of Ricardian Equivalence in a Common Trends Model. A common trends model for gross national income, private consumption, government consumption and net taxes is estimated on US data. The system has two cointegrating vectors and thus two common stochastic trends, interpreted as a technology trend and a public sector trend. The two temporary shocks are interpreted as a private demand and government financing shock, respectively. Theoretical models suggest that the two cointegrating vectors could be due to the private and public sectors' intertemporal budget constraints. We find two co-integrating vectors, as predicted by no-Ponzi game constraints on the sectors. However, a stronger version of the no-Ponzi game constraint is a solvency condition, which implies particular co-integrating vectors. These cointegration vectors are both rejected for the sample period, indicating that the public sector will not be able to repay its debt if the current policy is maintained. However, the private sector is at the same time accumulating wealth, which is consistent with predictions from a Ricardian model. Further, the equivalence theorem predicts that private consumption should be unaffected by financing shocks. Data, however, indicate that there is a significant short run effect on both income and private consumption from the financing shock, but the effect indicates that increasing taxes is accompanied by increasing private consumption, contrary to both standard Ricardian and Keynesian models. In the theoretical world, this type of pattern could be generated in models with risk averse individuals and uncertainty about future taxes. Essay 3: Risky Taxes, Budget Balance Preserving Spreads and Precautionary Savings. This essay analyzes the effects on consumption from changes in the riskiness of taxes. It starts by reinterpreting the Sandmo [1970] paper on general capital income risk to the case of risky capital taxation. In his framework the concept of a mean preserving spread (MPS) is used for the risk analysis. In connection with risky taxes it is however possible to explicitly connect the tax risk with the government's budget constraint. In this essay the concept of a budget balance preserving spread (BBPS) is developed and used for the analysis of stochastic taxes. The essay is concluded with a comparison of the effects that a MPS and a BBPS has on consumption decisions. It is shown that the comparative statics results for a BBPS could be different from the results obtained with a MPS. Essay 4: Budget Deficits, Tax Risk and Consumption. This essay analyzes the effects of budget deficits on consumption when individual taxes are stochastic. It is shown that the co-movements between budget deficits and private consumption will depend on how risk averse individuals are. In the case of lump-sum taxes, it is sufficient to assume that individuals have a precautionary savings motive to obtain the result that consumption today will decrease with increased disposable income today. Furthermore, if we use a time separable iso-elastic utility funcition, the standard analysis of capital income risk predicts (precautionary) savings to increase with increased risk if the coefficient of relative risk aversion is greater than one. This is no longer sufficient when the risk is due to uncertain capital income taxes. In general, the coefficient must be greater than one to obtain precautionary savings in response to the greater risk implied by a budget deficit. The results in the paper are consistent with Ricardian equivalence only for some specific utility function, but not in general. However, in the same way, the results are consistent with standard Keynesian models that display a positive relation between debt and private consumption only for certain utility functions, and could equally well generate the opposite result for individuals that are enough risk averse or prudent, without changing the expected value of government consumption. In other words, if future taxes are uncertain, increased disposable income in the present period will decrease present consumption, if households are prudent enough. Essay 5: Budget Deficits, Stochastic Population Size and Consumption. This paper analyzes the effects on present consumption of budget deficits under different assumptions regarding demographics. In the first part, birth and death rates are deterministic, and in the second part, birth rates are assumed to be stochastic. In the case of a deterministic population size, an increase in public debt raises present consumption, if the (deterministic) birth rate is greater than zero, while with a zero birth rate we obtain debt neutrality. This is consistent with the results in Blanchard [1985] and Buiter [1988]. However, for the case of stochastic birth rates, it is shown that we can obtain the result that present consumption will decrease when public debt is increased, both when we have a zero expected birth rate, and when the expected population size is assumed to be constant, so that the expected birth rate is positive and equal to the death rate. The explanation is that with an uncertain birth rate, the future tax base is uncertain, which makes per capita taxes uncertain in the future. Shifting taxes to the future thus implies greater uncertainty about future net income, and induces precautionary savings. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.

This dissertation consists of four chapters. Chapter 1: Introduction and summary of the thesis. This thesis consists of three essays (chapters 2-4) within the field of macroeconomics and development. The purpose of this first chapter is to provide an overview of the issues covered and the results obtained. Chapter 2: Life cycles, oil cycles, or financial reforms? Private savings rates in Indonesia. What goes steady with private savings? This chapter investigates reasons for the sustained growth in private savings in Indonesia between 1970 and 1994, in a period characterised by economic growth, demographic changes, terms of trade movements, and some financial reforms. The main finding is that predictions from a simple life cycle model do well in as much as the growth in private savings rates is associated with a fall in the dependency ratio. This suggests that the a reduction in the number of children relative to working age population has alleviated houshold budget constraints, thereby boosting savings rates. Chapter 3: Incredibly helpful? Foreign aid and stabilisation reforms in sub-Saharan Africa. What is the role of foreign aid in macroeconomic stabilisation? This study addresses the ambiguous impact of aid on stabilisation reforms in the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Zaire and Zambia. These countries have all received significant amounts of aid in connection with stabilisation attempts, but differ in their respective achievements. One important reason for the discrepancies appears to be that reform commitment as well as aid conditionality is more credible in some circumstances tha others. A review of factors with potential influence on reforms suggests that stabilisation aid has been less effective in countries with a history of high levels of aid, and that stabilisation has followed on comprehensive reform programs which have not been undermined by preceding failed reform attemts. Chapter 4: Foreign Direct Investment and Structural Adjustment Lending. The recent surge in FDI flows to developing countries has been attributed to liberalisation efforts. Using data on World Bank structural adjustment lending for a sample of developing countries, this chapter looks at the impact of the design and outcome of structural adjustment programs on multinational firms’ investments. An important finding is that there are considerable changes before and after reforms regarding the characteristics which attract FDI, with an increased importance of the economic environment of host countries. While we find no convincing relationship between the results of reforms and an increase in FDI inflows, there is evidence that countries that undertook consecutive reform programs experienced higher growth in FDI. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.

This thesis examines the impacts of financial development on economic activities in Vietnam at both the macro and the micro level in three core chapters. The first core chapter examines the role of financial development in growth and sources of growth in Vietnam by using the provincial panel data. It shows that financial development has a positive influence on the efficiency of using savings, on the quantity and quality of investment, on productivity, and hence growth. It also finds that there is an indirect impact of financial development on growth mainly through increasing the quality of foreign direct investment rather than the quantity. The following chapter analyses the determinants of household financial development and its role in economic activities of Vietnamese households by using the Household Data Survey. It suggests that the social relationship, location, fixed assets, household size, education, age and Kinh group are the key determinants of household financial development. Moreover, financial development contributes to household income through improving the level of savings and investment, labour productivity and reducing the problem of asymmetric information. Financial development is positively related to household welfare. The final core chapter looks at the impacts of financial development on firm performance in Vietnam by using the Firm Data Survey. It suggests that around 80.7% of Vietnamese firms lie between 0% and 20% in the efficiency scores derived from the DEA technique for 1,886 firms. Financial development plays a key role in firm performance. Smaller firms benefit more from the higher level of financial development. / http://proxy.library.adelaide.edu.au/login?url= http://library.adelaide.edu.au/cgi-bin/Pwebrecon.cgi?BBID=1349510 / Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Economics, 2008

This thesis examines the impacts of financial development on economic activities in Vietnam at both the macro and the micro level in three core chapters. The first core chapter examines the role of financial development in growth and sources of growth in Vietnam by using the provincial panel data. It shows that financial development has a positive influence on the efficiency of using savings, on the quantity and quality of investment, on productivity, and hence growth. It also finds that there is an indirect impact of financial development on growth mainly through increasing the quality of foreign direct investment rather than the quantity. The following chapter analyses the determinants of household financial development and its role in economic activities of Vietnamese households by using the Household Data Survey. It suggests that the social relationship, location, fixed assets, household size, education, age and Kinh group are the key determinants of household financial development. Moreover, financial development contributes to household income through improving the level of savings and investment, labour productivity and reducing the problem of asymmetric information. Financial development is positively related to household welfare. The final core chapter looks at the impacts of financial development on firm performance in Vietnam by using the Firm Data Survey. It suggests that around 80.7% of Vietnamese firms lie between 0% and 20% in the efficiency scores derived from the DEA technique for 1,886 firms. Financial development plays a key role in firm performance. Smaller firms benefit more from the higher level of financial development. / http://proxy.library.adelaide.edu.au/login?url= http://library.adelaide.edu.au/cgi-bin/Pwebrecon.cgi?BBID=1349510 / Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Economics, 2008

Diss. (sammanfattning) Uppsala : Sveriges lantbruksuniv., 2007. / Härtill 4 uppsatser.

BAKGRUND: Generation Y är idag unga vuxna och kommer när de blir pensionärer få ut en lägre inkomst än dem som går i pension idag, vilket ökar betydelsen av ett eget sparande. Tidigare studier har visat ett samband mellan en hög finansiell bildning och pensionssparande. Den finansiella bildningen har dock visats vara låg bland unga. På området beteendefinans finns en rad exempel på kognitiva bias som även de pekar på svårigheter med långsiktigt sparande. Forskning har ofta fokuserat på en specifik påverkande faktor för pensionssparande med ett kvantitativt arbetssätt, men en helhetsbild saknas. SYFTE: Syftet med studien är att undersöka generation Y:s kännedom om och hur de reflekterar kring behovet av långsiktigt sparande till pension, samt analysera hur deras kännedom och reflektioner relaterar till deras livssituation, finansiella bildning och tidigare forskning kring kognitiva bias. GENOMFÖRANDE: Studien har genomförts genom kvalitativa, semistrukturerade intervjuer med åtta personer ur generation Y. Genom frågor där respondenterna fått beskriva både sitt eget handlande, sina tankar, sina åsikter samt vad de anser kännetecknar generation Y har en helhetsbild av deras förhållningssätt till pensionssparande skapats. SLUTSATS: Studiens resultat visar att generation Y som utgångspunkt anser att det finns ett behov av pensionssparande, men att det i deras specifika fall inte passar att spara just nu. Deras faktiska kunskap om behovet av pensionssparande är dock låg. Motviljan att spara kan i flertalet situationer förklaras med överdriven optimism inför framtiden. En alternativ förklaring kan dock vara att generationen i dagsläget helt enkelt är nonchalanta inför sin framtida ekonomiska situation som pensionärer, då de värderar kortsiktig konsumtion högre. / BACKGROUND: Generation Y, who today are young adults, will get a lower income when they retire than those who are retired now. Previous studies have shown a connection between higher financial literacy and saving for retirement, but the financial literacy among young people has been shown to be low. In the field of behavioural finance there are several cognitive biases that also suggests that there are difficulties connected to long term savings. Research has often focused on one specific factor of impact for retirement savings with a quantitative approach, but a conclusive picture is lacking. AIM: The aim of this thesis is to examine the knowledge and reflections of generation Y regarding the need for long term savings for retirement, and to analyse their knowledge and reflections in relation to their conditions, financial literacy and previous research on cognitive biases. COMPLETION: The study has been conducted through qualitative, semi structured interviews with eight people from generation Y. Through questions where the respondents have had the opportunity to describe both their own actions, thoughts, opinions and what they think characterizes generation Y a conclusive picture of their attitude towards retirement savings has been created. CONCLUSION: The study concludes that generation Y as a reference point considers retirement savings important, but that in their specific case it is not suitable to save right now. Their actual knowledge about the need for retirement savings is low. Their aversion to save can in several cases be explained by undue optimism towards the future. An alternative explanation could be that the generation at present simply is unconcerned with their future economic situation in retirement, because they value short term consumption higher.

Submitted by Bruno Rodrigues (brunogorgulhorodrigues@gmail.com) on 2014-02-24T14:05:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodrigues, Bruno _ Masters Dissertation.pdf: 2101540 bytes, checksum: b57ecc8cae1e4cdd021c38293d656dcb (MD5) / Rejected by Luana Rodrigues (luana.rodrigues@fgv.br), reason: Dear Bruno, Please, make the following changes in your thesis: - Remove the logo of FGV; - Separate the abstract of the "resumo" and post it again. on 2014-02-25T12:10:04Z (GMT) / Submitted by Bruno Rodrigues (brunogorgulhorodrigues@gmail.com) on 2014-02-25T19:23:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodrigues,Bruno_Masters Dissertation.pdf: 2091027 bytes, checksum: fc0d3d1810c5067657dd7ec8c234da1c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luana Rodrigues (luana.rodrigues@fgv.br) on 2014-02-25T19:38:54Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodrigues,Bruno_Masters Dissertation.pdf: 2091027 bytes, checksum: fc0d3d1810c5067657dd7ec8c234da1c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-02-26T12:20:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodrigues,Bruno_Masters Dissertation.pdf: 2091027 bytes, checksum: fc0d3d1810c5067657dd7ec8c234da1c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-02-06 / Human Capital investments are essential for the economic development of a country. In Brazil, several sources point to the lack of qualified workforce as a cause of slower economic growth. This dissertation explores the theoretical linkages made from income inequality to economic performance. The empirical section focuses on one of the theories presented, the one on creditmarket imperfections. According to this theory, imperfect credit markets are poor resource allocators and do not allow for low income individuals to invest in their own human capital. In Brazil, there is a lack of empirical studies aimed at testing the channels through which inequality affects growth, therefore this research gains significance. The results presented here were drawn from family household survey – POF – undertaken by the IBGE. Data has evidenced that education investments grow as a percentage of the total budget with raises of income. Raises in income for very high income classes do not increase education spending. The data suggests the existence of a budget constraint for low and middle class Brazilians from all regions. It has been found strong evidence that low and middle income classes in Brazil have limited access to credit-markets. Therefore, there is evidence that redistribution would increase aggregate spending on education. / Investimentos em capital humano são essenciais para o desenvolvimento econômico de um pais. No Brasil, diversas fontes apontam para a falta de mão de obra qualificada como sendo uma das causas de um fraco crescimento econômico. Esta dissertação explora as teorias que ligam desigualdade de renda com performance econômica. A parte empírica se foca em uma das teorias apresentadas, a de imperfeições no mercado de credito. De acordo com esta teoria, mercados de credito imperfeitos são fracos alocadores de recursos e não possibilitam que indivíduos de baixa renda invistam no próprio capital humano. No Brasil, há uma escassez de estudos empíricos focados em testar os canais através dos quais a desigualdade de renda afeta o crescimento, trazendo significância para esta dissertação. Os resultados apresentados aqui foram obtidos através da pesquisa familiar – POF – realizada pelo IBGE. Os dados mostram que investimentos em educação crescem como percentual do orçamento com o aumento da renda familiar. Aumentos de renda para classes de renda já elevadas não provocam igual aumento nas despesas educacionais. Os dados sugerem a existência de uma restrição orçamentária para Brasileiros de baixa e média renda independente da região. Foram encontradas fortes evidencias de que classes de baixa e média renda no Brasil tem acesso limitado ao mercado de credito. Portanto, existe evidencia de que redistribuição aumentaria o gasto agregado em educação.

Submitted by Lidiane de Oliveira (lididuarte.oliveira@gmail.com) on 2017-05-30T14:17:09Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Lidiane_versão final.pdf: 1192433 bytes, checksum: 67cfa545ba2b857d12373b793715dea0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by ÁUREA CORRÊA DA FONSECA CORRÊA DA FONSECA (aurea.fonseca@fgv.br) on 2017-05-30T19:33:58Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Lidiane_versão final.pdf: 1192433 bytes, checksum: 67cfa545ba2b857d12373b793715dea0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-22T17:29:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lidiane_versão final.pdf: 1192433 bytes, checksum: 67cfa545ba2b857d12373b793715dea0 (MD5) / Two thousand and fifty six Senegalese clients of a Microfinance Institution (MFI) participated in the experiment during four months. They were divided in three groups: a control group that did not receive any messages, and two treatment groups, one in which clients received generic messages that simply said they should save money, and another group in which clients received messages that referred to the savings behavior of individuals who live in their neighborhood. The goal of this study is to assess whether receiving additional information about other participants from the same area where the participants live (neighborhood social capital) affects savings behavior. The results of this study show no significant impact of generic messages on savings behavior. Social capital effectively encourages deposits, which also makes withdrawals more salient since the accounts are fully liquid, but only among female clients. Limited attention, psychological reactance, salience, and gender issues emerge as possible explanations.

Submitted by Viviane Seda Bittencourt (viviane.bittencourt@fgv.br) on 2011-08-18T14:38:47Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Final_Viviane Seda Bittencourt.pdf: 1184289 bytes, checksum: d29df7b21fc17e4818ecc2e0d98b2646 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza (vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2011-08-18T17:25:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Final_Viviane Seda Bittencourt.pdf: 1184289 bytes, checksum: d29df7b21fc17e4818ecc2e0d98b2646 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2011-09-20T20:45:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Final_Viviane Seda Bittencourt.pdf: 1184289 bytes, checksum: d29df7b21fc17e4818ecc2e0d98b2646 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-05-27 / O trabalho avalia a dinâmica descrita pelo consumo de bens duráveis e poupança dos consumidores brasileiros entre setembro de 2005 e abril de 2011 e contribui com a literatura ao utilizar como ferramenta de análise um modelo autoregressivo com valor limite endógeno e dados qualitativos da pesquisa Sondagem de Expectativas do Consumidor Brasileiro, da FGV. Indicadores qualitativos para essas duas variáveis foram calculados e a metodologia proposta permitiu investigar, simultaneamente, a linearidade e estacionaridade de suas trajetórias. Os resultados sugerem, em ambos os casos, uma dinâmica não-linear com raiz unitária parcial. Adicionalmente, a estacionaridade constatada a partir de um valor limite estimado de 3,3 pontos percentuais para o Indicador de Compras de Bens Duráveis e de 3,6 pontos percentuais para o Indicador de Poupança permitem classificar seus históricos com indícios de saturação da capacidade de poupança e consumo dos indivíduos. / This paper evaluates the dynamics described by the Brazilian consumer’s savings and consumption of durables between September 2005 and April 2011, and contributes to the literature applying qualitative data from FGV Consumer Survey to an endogenous threshold autoregressive model. Qualitative indicators for these two variables were developed and the methodology allowed us to investigate, simultaneously, the stationarity and linearity of their behaviors. The results suggest a non-linear dynamic with partial unit root for these two indicators. In addition, the stationarity observed from an estimated threshold of 3.3 bp for the indicator of purchases of durables and 3.6 bp to the indicator of savings show evidences of saturation of savings and consumption individual capacities.

A literatura de Finanças oferece evidências de que, tanto no Brasil quantos nos E.U.A., as firmas de capital aberto estão retendo cada vez mais caixa ao longo das últimas décadas. Sobre a fonte de caixa retido, há algumas evidências do importante papel da emissão de ações para as firmas estadunidenses, porém não foram localizados trabalhos relacionados sobre o caso brasileiro. Usando uma base de dados em painel com dados contábeis e de mercado de firmas listadas na BMF&BOVESPA de 1995 a 2013 e o modelo proposto por McLean (2011), estimado através do método dos mínimos quadrados, este estudo objetiva obter evidências sobre as fontes de caixa retido pelas firmas no mercado brasileiro através de análise da amostra completa e de grupos de firmas classificadas como irrestritas e restritas financeiramente. Os resultados encontrados sugerem que a emissão de ações, o endividamento e o fluxo de caixa operacional têm correlação positiva e significante com a variação em caixa e que o fluxo de caixa operacional é a principal fonte de caixa retido das firmas brasileiras. Explorou-se o papel dos motivos precaucionários sobre a decisão de retenção e foram encontradas evidências de que o grupo de firmas restritas financeiramente retém mais a partir do fluxo de caixa operacional em tempos de crescimento nestes motivos. Por último, buscou-se verificar o papel de impactos macroeconômicos sobre a decisão de retenção, com os resultados mostrando que choques exógenos afetam de maneira diferente as firmas consideradas irrestritas e restritas financeiramente. / The Finance literature offers evidence that, in Brazil as in the U.S.A., publicly traded firms are saving more and more cash over the past decades. About the source of cash savings, there is some evidence of the important role of shares issuance for US firms, but no work was found related with the Brazilian case. Using a panel database formed by accounting and market data from listed firms in BM&FBOVESPA from 1995 to 2013 and the model proposed by McLean (2011), estimated by the least squares method, this study aims to gather evidence on the sources of cash retained by companies in the Brazilian market through analysis of the full sample and groups of firms classified as financially unconstrained and constrained. The results suggest that the shares issuance, debt and operating cashflow have positive and significant correlation with the change in cash savings and that operating cashflow is the main source of cash for Brazilian firms. The role of precautionary motives for the retention decision was explored and evidence was found that in times of growth in these motives, more is retained from operating cashflow. Finally, we sought to determine the role of macroeconomic impacts on the retention decision, with the results showing that exogenous shocks affect differently the firms considered financially unconstrained and constrained.