Sea level rise and coastal erosion are two processes which may result in major problems for coastal cities around the world. This is particularly true for Southern and Eastern African cities as they struggle to meet their developmental challenges in addition to sea level rise and coastal erosion. This thesis focuses on three main areas, the analysis of the rates of sea level from tide gauges in the region, the extent of wave run-up on the beach and the development of a simple technical and management framework that managers can apply to assess coastal hazards. The rates of sea level rise in the region vary, Zanzibar, Tanzania reflects a falling sea level at -3:64 plus minus 1:62 mm per year while the highest rate of sea level rise at Diego Garcia, British Indian Ocean Territories is +4:35 plus minus 7:61 mm per year. The rate of sea level rise are dependent on the complex interactions of vertical crustal movements, barometric pressure changes, and the warm Agulhas and cooler Benguela currents. Wave run-up is an indicator of the hazard zone. A number of international wave run-up models were assessed for use in this region and were found to be unsuitable. A new wave run-up model was developed which uses the bathymetric profile as opposed to the beach slope in predicting wave run-up. This model uses the equation Rx H0 = C S2=3, where Rx is the wave run-up height above Still Water Level, H0 is the significant wave height at the closure depth, C is dimensionless coefficient where median values are described by C ' 7:5, S is a representative nearshore slope (S = (hc=xh)). hc is the closure depth and xh the horizontal distance from the waters edge to the closure depth. An assessment of the impacts of sea level rise and wave run-up was undertaken based on a detailed case study of the Durban coastline. The results were incorporated into a standalone freeware viewer tool enabling this information to be accessible to planners, decision makers and the general public. The research has identifed several types of shoreline that are vulnerable to coastal erosion, sea level rise and extreme wave events. Recommendations as to what adaptation measures could be undertaken for the different beach types are proposed. With this information coastal managers and decision makers charged with managing shorelines can take the first step in understanding and adapting into the future. / Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville, 2012.

No description available.

The dynamic environmental history and relative sea level (RSL) changes experienced on the Pacific Northwest Coast of North America during the early post-glacial period and the early Holocene resulted in significant visibility challenges for prospection of early coastal archaeological sites. Archaeological visibility is the degree to which cultural material survives post-depositional processes and is detectable on the landscape today. It is influenced by environmental factors such as localized differences in relative sea level change, the rainforest canopy and dynamic post-glacial activity. This study offers an integrated methodological approach for locating palaeo-coastal sites by combining: i) geomorphic interpretation of landscape attributes captured by LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) mapping, ii) GIS-based archaeological site potential mapping, and iii) local RSL history. The RSL history for the study site (Quadra Island, British Columbia, Canada) shows notable regression over the past 14 500 years from a highstand of at least 195 m resulting from post-glacial isostatic rebound. Late Pleistocene and early Holocene palaeo-shorelines are found inland from, and elevated above, modern sea level and represent key areas for archaeological prospecting. Bare-earth Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) derived from the LIDAR dataset were interpreted to identify palaeo-shorelines at 10 m and 30 m above modern mean sea level. A GIS-derived map was created to identify regions of high archaeological potential using a decision tree method with variables including distance to palaeo-shoreline, low slope and a coastal complexity parameter. Select geoarchaeological sites were examined in terms of sedimentology, stratigraphy, microfossil content and geochronology as site-specific examples of sea level regression stillstands. Field validation results suggest that this integrated methodology provides a promising approach for archaeological prospection that could be applied to other post-glacial coastal settings. / Graduate

Once covered by dense mangrove forest, Baba Island was inclusive of a group of Islands protecting the Kolachi settlement from storms and invasion.  Kolachi Jo Goth (fisherman’s village) transformed into the present-day megacity of Karachi when the British conquered and established it as a harbour for trade. Baba Island was no exception to the change as the British started moving the fishermen from the centre further out to the Islands while establishing their residential colonies.  This displacement of a chunk of the community led to the invasion of mangrove land and hence came about a dependent community - known as Baba Goth (Island). The infrastructure and main fishery including the fish markets were all still inland, apart from this as the city grew development happened inland and the community became forgotten over time. The once pristine waters are polluted, mangroves forests diminishing, fish depletion in the sea, lack of infrastructure and skills, rising sea levels and economic impoverishment have all led to the Baba community's vulnerability.  This thesis recognizes the degrading conditions of the Baba community, especially in the current context of climate change. Through the lens of sustainability, the project understands the practices and economic activities of the residents to derive solutions. It promotes regenerating coastal ecology to prevent land loss from seawater intrusion and storms. Ecofishing, waste and water management are the other main strategic solutions explored in the project. In all, the thesis aims to provide strategies for self-sufficiency and minimize their dependency on the city.

La question de la remontée des niveaux marins et du recul du trait de côte est aujourd'hui une préoccupation de premier ordre face à laquelle les sociétés sont en attente de connaissances et de propositions. Or, les littoraux les plus menacés, les côtes basses, sont d'une part le siège de pratiques séculaires, de "défense contre la mer" et ont, d’autre part, été investis dans une période récente par des activités touristiques tournées vers l'exploitation des plages. Cette vulnérabilité physique et sociale explique notre choix pour les littoraux correspondants aux trois communes de Vias, Agde et Marseillan (golfe du Lion). Ces terrains réunissent un ensemble de caractéristiques qui en font un terrain laboratoire propice à l’observation et au traitement de cette problématique. L’érosion et la submersion marine ont marqué l’espace et les paysages de ces territoires. Face à cette situation de vulnérabilité se pose la question de l'adaptation des systèmes socio-économiques qui se sont développés dans ces espaces et de la résilience des territoires. La résilience désigne la capacité à anticiper, à réagir et à rebondir après un événement perturbateur. Cette approche nous permet de comprendre comment la société locale réagit face à des situations de vulnérabilité et comment se construisent les capacités d’adaptation et de résilience dans sa dimension territoriale. L’approche monographique est mobilisée dans notre travail à partir des entretiens semi-directifs, l’objectif est de confronter la notion théorique de la résilience des territoires à sa réalité pratique. À travers, ces trois territoires, il s’agit d’apporter des connaissances empiriques afin de décrypter les enjeux et révéler un modèle de développement axé sur la littoralisation des activités. Nous proposons à la fin de ce travail une nouvelle démarche, la Résilience Intégrée de Zones Côtières (RIZC), pour dépasser la complexité du réel et entretenir les solidarités entre tous les acteurs concernés. La RIZC permet de maintenir un niveau d’activité à l’aide des capacités de la souplesse du système afin de limiter les conflits d’intérêts entre public et privé et renforcer leur confiance mutuelle. / Rising sea levels and coastline recession have become a major issue about which society requires knowledges and solutions. The shorelines most threatened are low seacoasts which are both places of century-old traditions of coastal protection and localities exploited for tourism attracted by their beaches. This material and social vulnerability explains our choice of three municipalities: Vias, Agde and Marseillan (France, Gulf of Lion). These cases highlight features that permit pertinent observations on the subject. Erosion and coastal flood have shaped their landscape and planning. Can socioeconomics systems adapt to this new vulnerability? Resilience is the capacity to anticipate, react and bounce back after a disturbance. This approach allows us to understand how local communities react to vulnerability and plan new forms of resilience and adaptation. We use semi-structured interviews to build monographs and contrast theoretical resilience against real life experiences. These three territories are used to gather empirical knowledge in order to clarify the issues at stake and the need to abandon the concentration of activities on shorelines. Finally, we discuss how a new approach known as integrated coastal zone management; can overcome the complexity of the real situations encountered and underpin solidarity between all the stakeholders. Using a more versatile system, integrated coastal zone management, can help to maintain activities, limit conflicts of interest between public and private stakeholders and strengthen their mutual trust.

L’objectif de la présente thèse est de proposer un cadre conceptuel d’approche desmouvements de population liés aux risques environnementaux. Depuis une vingtained’années, un ensemble de termes a émergé afin de caractériser ces populations: réfugiésenvironnementaux, éco-réfugiés, réfugiés climatiques, éco- migrant pour ne citer que les plusconnus. La caractérisation et le statut accordé à ces populations sont dépendants de la nature,la force et la rapidité de l’évènement environnemental contribuant à leur déplacement. Il estdonc indispensable de définir des critères précis pour éviter tout risque de confusion etprocéder à de véritables évaluations des flux liés à ces catastrophes. Notre analyse sefocalisera sur les risques liés à la hausse du niveau de la mer: risques de submersion etd’inondation sur le littoral et dans les espaces deltaïques. Face à ces risques croissants, il estimpérieux de mettre en place une «stratégie proactive», basée sur le triptyque protection -prévention et anticipation. Cette stratégie exige au-delà de la délimitation des zonesgéographiques concernées, une quantification et qualification des populations potentiellementtouchées. C’est la conjonction de deux formes de vulnérabilité qui est au coeur de notreproblématique: la vulnérabilité face aux risques d’inondations et la vulnérabilité face à lapression démographique croissante. C’est dans cet esprit que nous étudierons deux zonessoumises au risque d’inondation, l’une en France (Estuaire de la Gironde) et l’autre en Grèce(Deltas d’Axios-Loudias-Aliakmonas en Macédoine Centrale) afin d’estimer l’importanceéventuelle des mouvements de population à l’horizon 2025 et 2050. / The present thesis seeks to define a conceptual framework in order to examine the populationmovements related to environmental risks. For about twenty years, several terms haveemerged to describe thedisplaced people such as: environmental refugees, eco-refugees,climate refugees or eco-migrants. The terms and the status attributed to these populations arelargely dependent on the nature, strength and speed of the environmental event contributing totheir displacement. It is therefore necessary to specify the criteria in order to avoid anyconfusion and to be able to assess the physical flows generated by the environmentaldisasters. Our analysis is focused on the risks of submersion and inundation along the coastand in the delta areas associated with rise in the sea levels. In view of these increasing risks, it is absolutely necessary to set up a "proactive strategy", based on the triptych protection -prevention - anticipation. For each type of risk considered, this strategy requires, beyond thedelimitation of the geographical areas concerned, quantification and qualification of thepotentially affected populations. Consequently, the main aspect of our problematic combinestwo types of vulnerability:the firstdue to environmental disasters’ risks such as floods and thesecondto increasing population pressure. Finally, we chose to examine in our study two areashighly subjected to flood risks such as the Gironde estuaryin France and the Axios -Loudias-Aliakmonas Deltas in Central Macedoniain Greece trying to estimate the potential size ofpopulation movements in 2025 and 2050.

There are currently several potential threats to the long-term habitability of many atolls and islands in the Pacific Islands region, with environmental change appearing the most serious. Minimal attention has been given to the possibility that migrants forced from uninhabitable islands will require resettlement en masse, and assessing past resettlements is crucial to planning for what the future my hold. Population resettlement is not a new phenomenon in the Pacific Islands region, yet recently it has been neglected by academics. This study builds on past work by Bedford and assesses the current literature in the fields of population resettlement and forced migration, finding that the situation threatening the Pacific Islands is not adequately addressed by any of the planning or analytical tools available. A model based predominantly on the work of Cernea and Muggah was developed by the author to account for this theoretical shortcoming. The model is used to assess the past cases of resettlement from Banaba and Bikini Atoll, identifying variables which influence the success of resettlement. Conclusions are drawn from the case studies and recommendations for how to avoid negative outcomes in future resettlements are made. This study advances the current literature, provides an in-depth analysis of pressing yet hitherto avoided issues, and can inform both foreign and domestic policy planning in not just Pacific Island states, but receiver states and other potentially effected islands or atolls regardless of region.

The research presented in this dissertation attempted to determine whether climate variability is critical to sea level changes in coastal BC. To that end, a number of statistical models were proposed to clarify the relationships between five climate variability indices representing large-scale atmospheric circulation regimes and sea levels, storm surges, extreme winds and storm track variability in coastal BC. The research findings demonstrate that decadal to inter decadal climatic variability is fundamental to explaining the changing frequency and intensity of extreme atmospheric and oceanic environmental variables in coastal BC. The trends revealed by these analyses suggest that coastal flooding risks are certain to increase in this region during the next few decades, especially if the global sea-levels continue to rise as predicted. The out come of this study emphasis the need to look beyond climatic means when completing climate impact assessments, by clearly showing that climate extremes are currently causing the majority of weather-related damage along coastal BC. The findings highlight the need to derive knowledge on climate variability and change effects relevant at regional to local scales to enable useful adaptation strategies. The major findings of this research resulted in five independent manuscripts: (i) Sea level responses to climatic variability and change in Northern BC. The Manuscript (MC) is published in the Journal of atmospheric and oceans (AO 46 (3), 277-296); (ii) Extreme sea-level recurrences in the south coast of BC with climate considerations. This MC is in review with the Asia Pacific Journal of Climate Change (APJCC); (iii) Extreme sea-surge responses to climate variability in coastal BC. This MC is currently in review in the Annals of the AAG (AN-2009-0098); (iv) Extreme wind regime responses to climate variability and change in the inner-south-coast of BC. This MC is published in the Journal of Atmosphere and Oceans (AO 47 (1), 41-62); (v) Sensitivity of winter storm track characteristics in North-eastern Pacific to climate variability. This manuscript is in review with the Journal of Atmosphere and Oceans (AO (1113)). The findings of this research program made key contributions to the following regional sea level rise impact assessment studies in BC: (i) An examination of the Factors Affecting Relative and Absolute Sea level in coastal BC (Thomson et al., 2008). (ii) Coastal vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise, Northeast Graham Island, Haida Gwaii (formally known as the Queen Charlotte Islands), BC (Walker et al., 2007). (iii) Storm Surge: Atmospheric Hazards, Canadian Atmospheric Hazards Network - Pacific and Yukon Region, C/O Bill Taylor.

Dagens klimatförändringar påverkar dagens samhälle liksom morgondagens. En av de stora effekterna av dem är de stigande havsnivåerna som på lång sikt kan komma att ha stora konsekvenser för den byggda miljön liksom människorna som vistas där. Den globala forskningen som sammanställs av FN:s klimatpanel IPCC redovisas i klimatrapporter som utkommer med några års mellanrum med den aktuell forskning. I dessa rapporter finns det ett antal scenarier, benämnda RCP, som också visar den troliga medelhavsnivåhöjningen till år 2100. Idag finns det globala liksom nationella åtaganden för att begränsa de utsläpp som sker för att lindra klimatförändringarna. För att kunna hantera de förändringar som oundvikligen kommer och redan sker, finns det ett brett arbete med klimatanpassningsåtgärder.  Denna uppsats syftar därför till att undersöka det arbete med klimatanpassning som görs på kommunal planeringsnivå i Sverige med hänsyn till den stigande medelhavsnivån med en tidshorisont till år 2100. Detta genomfördes genom en fallstudie av Värmdö kommuns planarbete där kommunens strategiska dokument och två detaljplaner studerades ingående. Kommunens arbete följer rekommendationen från Länsstyrelsen som baseras på regionala sammanställningar av den förväntade medelhavsnivåhöjningen utifrån äldre global forskning. Denna rekommendation överensstämmer med dagens aktuella forskning om den troliga medelhavsnivåhöjningen. Rekommendationen finns med i Värmdö kommuns detaljplaneprocesser i strandnära läge i de två fall denna uppsats studerar, liksom den kommande översiktsplanen som är under framtagande. / The current climate change affects today's society as well as tomorrow's. One of the major effects of climate change is the rising sea levels, which in the long run may have major consequences for the built environment as well as the people who live there. The global research compiled by the UNclimate panel, IPCC, is presented in Assessment Reports that are published every few years with the current research. In these reports there are four emission scenarios, called RCP, which also show the probable sea level rise by the year 2100. Today, there are global as well as national commitments to limit emissions to mitigate climate change. In order to be able to handle the changes that inevitably come and are already happening, there is substantial work with climate change adaptation measures.  This thesis therefore aims to investigate the work with climate change adaptation done at municipal planning level in Sweden with regard to the rising sea level with a time horizon to the year 2100. This was carried out through a case study of Värmdö municipality's planning work where the municipality's strategic documents and two detailed plans were studied in detail. The municipality's work follows the recommendation from the regional government branch, Länsstyrelsen, which is based on regional compilations of the expected sea level rise based on older global research. This recommendation works in accordance with current research on the likely rise in sea levels. The recommendation is included in Värmdö municipality's detailed planning processes in coastal locations in the two cases this thesis is studying, as well as the forthcoming master plan that is being prepared

Vårt samhälle står inför stora utmaningar när det kommer till klimatförändringarna. Inte minst i att anpassa samhället för att hantera konsekvenser som stigande havsnivåer och kusterosion. Denna studie kommer därför att undersöka hur arbetet kring stigande havsnivåer och kusterosion hanteras och samordnas i kommunal och regional fysisk planering. Den kommer också att undersöka vad nationella och regionala planeringsdokument har för betydelse för kustkommuners implementering av åtgärder i sin översiktsplanering. Syftet med studien är att undersöka fyra skånska kustkommuners arbete med frågan. I studien används teorier kring governance (nätverksstyrning), New Public Management, implementeringsteori, wicked problems och ett analysverktyg om skyddsstrategier: reträtt, försvar och attack. Uppsatsen har en kvalitativ ansats där fallstudier använts som metodologi, databassökningar med nyckelord samt dokumentstudie med närläsning som metod. Det empiriska material som studerats är kommunernas översiktsplaner och regionala planeringsdokument. Det har också skett en närläsning av nationella planeringsdokument som en viktig bakgrund i studien. Under uppsatsen har vi även haft kontakt med två tjänstepersoner inom kommunal förvaltning. Genom sin expertkunskap har de bidragit med vägledning i hur planeringsvärlden fungerar. Studien har visat på både likheter och skillnader i kommunernas strategier för upprättande av kustskydd. Länsstyrelsen Skåne anser dock att samtliga kommuner är för vaga i sin vägledning. Av både de nationella planeringsdokumenten och det empiriska materialet framgår det att flera aktörer anser att ansvaret för klimatfrågan är otydligt. Den nationella nivån kritiseras också för att ge för vaga riktlinjer. Nätverksstyrningen och lagstiftningen är två orsaker som ofta lyfts fram. Genom det empiriska materialet kan vi se att otydliga riktlinjer leder till problematik när länsstyrelsen och kommunerna gör olika bedömningar kring implementering av kustskydd. Vi har kunnat konstatera att det ofta sker en krock på grund av det kommunala planmonopolet. Kommunerna och i vissa fall även länsstyrelserna efterfrågar tydligare statlig styrning. Vår bedömning är att det kan finnas en fördel med att den statliga styrningen i klimatanpassningsfrågan förtydligas. Antingen genom tydligare lagstiftning eller bättre samordning av en myndighet. Vi bedömer också att kommunerna behöver låta klimatanpassningsfrågan ta större utrymme i översiktsplaneringen. / Our society is facing major challenges when it comes to dealing with climate change, not least in adapting society to deal with consequences such as rising sea levels and coastal erosion. This study will examine how the work on rising sea levels and coastal erosion is managed and coordinated in municipal and regional spatial planning. It will also examine how national and regional planning documents affect the implementation of coastal protection in the municipalities' comprehensive planning. The purpose of the study is to investigate four coastal municipalities in Skåne. The study uses theories of governance, New Public Management, implementation theory, wicked problems and an analysis tool on protection strategies: retreat, defense and attack. The thesis has a qualitative approach where case studies are used as a methodology, data base researches and document study with close reading as a method. The empirical material studied is the municipalities' comprehensive plans and regional planning documents. A close reading of national planning documents has also been used as an important background to the study. During the thesis, we have also had contact with two experts in municipal administration. Through their expertise, they have contributed with knowledge of how the planning world is functioning. The study has shown both similarities and differences between the municipalities and their strategies for establishing coastal protection. However, the County Administrative Board of Skåne believes that all municipalities are too vague in their guidance. Both the close reading of the national planning documents and the empirical material show that several actors consider the responsibility for the climate issue to be unclear. The national level is also often criticized for providing unclear guidelines. Governance and legislation are often identified as causes. In the empirical material, we can see that unclear guidelines lead to problems when the county administrative boards and the municipalities make different assessments regarding the implementation of coastal protection. We have found that there is often a clash due to the Swedish municipal planning monopoly. The municipalities, and in some cases also the county administrative boards, demand clearer state control. Our assessment is that there may be an advantage in clarifying the governmental management of the climate change adaptation issue, either through clearer legislation or better coordination by an authority. We also believe that municipalities have to prioritize the climate change adaptation issue better in their comprehensive planning.