(RS) e Santa Catarina (SC), Brasil meridional. Para tanto foram usados os dados diários e das normais climatológicas (1961-90) das estações do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET). Foi elaborada uma caracterização climática da área de estudo, que forneceu o apoio para a contextualização do fenômeno. Os dados climatológicos básicos (temperaturas médias mensais compensadas, temperaturas mínimas absolutas e totais pluviométricos mensais) foram obtidos diretamente das normais climatológicas publicadas pelo INMET. Os dados referentes aos dias de neve foram compilados diretamente das observações do INMET para planilha eletrônica onde se totalizaram os dias de neve e foram calculadas médias e percentuais convencionais. Em termos sazonais, o período de ocorrência estende-se de maio até setembro, quando a massa de ar polar marítima (mP) tem maior atuação no sul do Brasil. O mês de julho concentra a maioria dos eventos, com mais de 40% dos dias de neve na maioria das estações analisadas. A trajetória do anticiclone móvel polar tem papel fundamental no entendimento do fenômeno, associando-se a maioria dos eventos com passagens interiores (i.e., continentais) do referido sistema atmosférico. As áreas mais altas do Brasil meridional, a partir da cota de 600 m, são as que apresentam as maiores médias anuais de dias com neve, com valores que chegam até a média de 1,8 dias/ano em Cambará do Sul e 2,7 dias/ano em São Joaquim (SC). Esse município possui as mais altas médias de ocorrência da neve. A área de maior recorrência do fenômeno foi chamada de “Planalto da Neve”, subdividida em dois setores: I, acima de 900 m e II, entre 600 m e 900 m. O referido Planalto possui 95.242 km² distribuídos no RS e SC, localizando-se no seu interior 90 cidades gaúchas e 101 catarinenses. A análise da variação inter-anual (com dados de São Joaquim, SC) indicou que, de toda a série estudada, apenas os anos de 1961, 1963, 1971, 1973, 1982 e 1986, não apresentam registro de neve. As nevadas mais relevantes ocorreram nos anos de 1965, 1975, 1988 e 1990. Os intervalos entre períodos de ausência de neve e de nevadas mais importantes indica um ciclo decadal na dinâmica do fenômeno. Apesar dos picos de precipitação em 1988 e 1990, não existe uma tendência de aumento da precipitação de neve naquela cidade. / This work analyzes the seasonal and spatial distribution of snow in Rio Grande do Sul (RS) and Santa Catarina (SC), southern Brazil. This analysis is based on the daily data and the Climatological Normals (1961-1990), coming from the local weather stations, maintained by the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET), to obtain the basic climatological data (compensated monthly medium temperatures, minimum absolute temperatures and monthly pluviometric totals). To contextualize the study of this phenomenon, the characterization of the climate was prepared for the region. The total days of snow, averages and conventional percentages were compiled directly from INMET observations. In seasonal terms, the occurrence period extends from May to September, when the marine polar air mass (mP) has greater influence in the south of Brazil. The month of July concentrated most of the events, with more than 40% of the days of snow in most of the analyzed stations. The polar anticyclone has a fundamental role in the understanding this phenomenon, associating most of the events with continental passages of this atmospheric system. The highlands of southern Brazil, starting at 600 m, present the largest annual averages of days with snow, values averaging from 1.8 day/year in Cambará do Sul (RS) to 2.7 day/year in São Joaquim (SC), the highest averages of snow occurrence. The area of occurrence of the phenomenon is called “Planalto da Neve”, and is subdivided in two sectors: 1) above 900 m and, 2) between 600 m and 900 m. This plateau possesses 95.242 km² and is spread out between RS and SC, comprising 90 municipalities of RS and 101 in SC. The analysis of the interannual variation considering the data from São Joaquim, SC ) indicated that, from the studied series, 1961, 1963, 1971, 1973, 1982 and 1986, did not register snow. The most relevant snowfalls happened in the years of 1965, 1975, 1988 and 1990. The intervals between periods with absence of snow and of more important snowfalls indicates a decadal cycle in the dynamics of the phenomenon. Regardless of the peaks in precipitation registered for 1988 and 1990, there is no trend in the increase of snow precipitation for São Joaquim.

Walking and bicycling to work, active commuting, can contribute to sustainable mobility and provide regular health-enhancing physical activity for individuals. Our knowledge of active commuting behaviours in general and in different mode and gender groups in particular is limited. Moreover, the validity and reproducibility of the methods to measure the key variables of the behaviours are uncertain. The aims of this thesis is to explore gender and mode choice differences in commuting behaviours in terms of distance, duration, velocity and trip frequency, of a group of adult commuters in Greater Stockholm, Sweden, and furthermore to develop a criterion method for distance measurements and to assess the validity of four other distance measurement methods. We used one sample of active commuters recruited by advertisements, n = 1872, and one street-recruited sample, n = 140. Participants received a questionnaire and a map to draw their commuting route on. The main findings of the thesis were, firstly, that the map-based method could function as a criterion method for active commuting distance measurements and, secondly, that four assessed distance measurement methods – straight-line distance, GIS, GPS and self-report – differed significantly from the criterion method. Therefore, we recommend the use of correction factors to compensate for the systematic over- and underestimations. We also found three distinctly different modality groups in both men and women with different behaviours in commuting distance, duration and trip frequency. These groups were commuters who exclusively walk or bicycle the whole way to work, and dual mode commuters who switch between walking and cycling. These mode groups accrued different amounts of activity time for commuting. Through active commuting per se, the median pedestrian and dual mode commuters met or were close to the recommended physical activity level of 150 minutes per week during most months of the year, whereas the single mode cyclists did so only during the summer half of the year. / FAAP

This research assessed market efficiency, volatility behaviour, asset pricing, and oil price risk exposure of the oil and gas companies quoted on the London Stock Exchange with the aim of providing fresh evidence on the pricing dynamics in this sector. In market efficiency analysis, efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and random walk hypothesis were tested using a mix of statistical tools such as Autocorrelation Function, Ljung-Box Q-Statistics, Runs Test, Variance Ratio Test, and BDS test for independence. To confirm the results from these parametric and non-parametric tools, technical trading and filter rules, and moving average based rules were also employed to assess the possibility of making abnormal profit from the stocks under study. In seasonality analysis, stock returns were tested for the day-of-the-week and month-of-the-year effects. Volatility processes, estimation, and forecasting were undertaken using both asymmetric and symmetric volatility models such as GARCH (1,1) and Threshold ARCH or TARCH (1,1,1) to investigate the volatility behaviour of stock returns. To determine the effect of an exogenous variable on volatility, Brent crude oil price was used in the models formulated as a variance regressor for the assessment of its impact on volatility. The models were then used to forecast the price volatility taking note of the forecasting errors for the determination of the most effective forecasting model. International oil price risk exposure of the oil and gas sector was measured using a multi-factor asset pricing model similar to that developed by Fama and French (1993). Factors used in the asset pricing model are assessed for statistical significance and relevance in the pricing of oil and gas stocks. Data used in the study were mainly the adjusted daily closing prices of oil and gas companies quoted on the exchange. Five indices of FTSE All Share, FTSE 100, FTSE UK Oil and Gas, FTSE UK Oil and Gas Producers, and FTSE AIM SS Oil and Gas were also included in the analysis. Our findings suggest that technical trading rules cannot be used to gain abnormal returns, which could be regarded as a sign for weak form market efficiency. The results from seasonality analysis have not shown any day-of-the-week or monthly effect in stock returns. The pattern of stock returns’ volatility can be estimated and forecasted, although the relationship between risk and return cannot be generalised. On a similar note, the relationship between volatility attributes and the efficient market hypothesis cannot be clearly established. However, we have established that volatility modelling can significantly measure the quantum of risk in the oil and gas sector. Market risk, oil price risk, size and book-to-market related factors in asset pricing models were found to be relevant in the determination of asset prices of the oil and gas companies.

Electrical methods of geophysical survey are known to produce results that are hard to predict at different times of the year, and under differing weather conditions. This is a problem which can lead to misinterpretation of archaeological features under investigation. The dynamic relationship between a ‘natural’ soil matrix and an archaeological feature is a complex one, which greatly affects the success of the feature’s detection when using active electrical methods of geophysical survey. This study has monitored the gradual variation of measured resistivity over a selection of study areas. By targeting difficult to find, and often ‘missing’ electrical anomalies of known archaeological features, this study has increased the understanding of both the detection and interpretation capabilities of such geophysical surveys. A 16 month time-lapse study over 4 archaeological features has taken place to investigate the aforementioned detection problem across different soils and environments. In addition to the commonly used Twin-Probe earth resistance survey, electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) and quadrature electro-magnetic induction (EMI) were also utilised to explore the problem. Statistical analyses have provided a novel interpretation, which has yielded new insights into how the detection of archaeological features is influenced by the relationship between the target feature and the surrounding ‘natural’ soils. The study has highlighted both the complexity and previous misconceptions around the predictability of the electrical methods. The analysis has confirmed that each site provides an individual and nuanced situation, the variation clearly relating to the composition of the soils (particularly pore size) and the local weather history. The wide range of reasons behind survey success at each specific study site has been revealed. The outcomes have shown that a simplistic model of seasonality is not universally applicable to the electrical detection of archaeological features. This has led to the development of a method for quantifying survey success, enabling a deeper understanding of the unique way in which each site is affected by the interaction of local environmental and geological conditions.

The biology of South African Bryde’s whales (Balaenoptera brydei/edeni), with a focus on the inshore form, was investigated through estimates of abundance and survival rate, seasonality of occurrence and variation in mitochondrial and nuclear DNA. Photographs, sightings data and biopsy samples were collected in Plettenberg Bay, on the south-east coast of South Africa. Additional genetic material was obtained from the Iziko South African Museum, Marine and Coastal Management, and the Port Elizabeth Museum. Mark-recapture methods applied to photo-identification data were used to estimate abundance and survival rate. Estimates of abundance ranged from 130 to 250 (CV = 0.07 - 0.38) and the estimated annual survival rate was 0.93 (CV = 0.047, 95% CI = 0.852 - 1.0). Seasonal increases in the encounter rate and number of individual whales were observed during summer and autumn, with a peak in April, which corresponded to increased feeding activity and larger average aggregation sizes. Chlorophyll-a, sea surface temperature and wind speed were all significant factors in explaining the variability in the occurrence of whales. No seasonality in the occurrence of calves was detected. Mitochondrial DNA control region sequences (685bp) were compared to published sequences. This confirmed the offshore form as Balaenoptera brydei and the inshore form as closely related to B.brydei, possibly at the sub-specific level, but excluded it as B.edeni. Phylogenetic analyses support complete separation between the two forms. The use of 10 polymorphic microsatellite loci revealed no population structure among the inshore samples (FST = 0.006). Pairwise estimates of relatedness found most individuals to be unrelated, with only a few distant relatives detected.

本論文主要研究主題為股票市場流動性的共同影響因子，並檢定總體經濟變數是否能對股票市場整體流動性的變動提供解釋。 過去對於流動性相關主題的研究多半著重於個別股票流動性與其股價高低，股價變動程度以及公司個別事件如股票分割等對其股票流動性所造成的影響。而本文則是針對在台灣股票市場交易之個股為標的，探討總體經濟變數對股票市場整體流動性的影響。與過去文獻實證結果相同的是，台灣股票市場交易的不同個股之流動性的確存在共同的影響因子。而在流動性解釋因子的實證方面，結果顯示總體經濟變數中的匯率，工業生產指數，以及貨幣供給額之變動率皆對股票之流動性有正面的影響。而利率與通貨膨脹變動率則與股票流動性存在著負向的相關性。除此之外，本研究也發現以上各總體變數對股票流動性的影響力會隨景氣循環的不同階段而有所差異。 本論文之實證結果不但增進我們對股票市場整體流動性長期變化的了解，同時也更進一步建立起總體經濟與股票市場流動性之間的關聯。 / This study investigates the common factors of the stock market liquidity and examine whether the variations of liquidity can be explained by the general macroeconomic variables. In contrast with pervious research which focuses on the firm-specific determinants of liquidity, our study emphasizes the influence of a macro-perspective aspect on the market-wide liquidity. Consistent with what other studies documented in the U.S. security market, we first evidence commonality in liquidity in Taiwan stock market. We also find exchange rate, industrial production index, and money supply are positively correlated with stock liquidity while interest rate and inflation rate are negatively related to liquidity. Furthermore, we show that macroeconomic variables impose influences of different magnitudes on stock liquidity during different stages of business cycles though the empirical results are not statistically significant in our study. This research helps us learn more about the relationship between stock market liquidity and the macro economy and provides another prospect of how liquidity changes in the long run.

The arrival of the North American Monsoon System (NAMS) terminates a presummer hyperarid period in the southwestern United States (U.S.), providing summer moisture that is favorable for forest growth. Montane forests in this region rely on winter snowpack to drive much of their growth; the extent to which they use NAMS moisture is uncertain. We addressed this by studying stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in earlywood and latewood from 11 sites along a latitudinal gradient extending from Arizona and New Mexico to Utah. This study provides the first regional perspective on the relative roles of winter versus summer precipitation as an ecophysiological resource. Here we present evidence that Ponderosa pine uses NAMS moisture differentially across this gradient. C-13/C-12 ratios suggest that photosynthetic water use efficiency during latewood formation is more sensitive to summer precipitation at the northern than at the southern sites. This is likely due to the fact that NAMS moisture provides sufficiently favorable conditions for tree photosynthesis and growth during most years in the southern sites, whereas the northern sites experience larger summer moisture variability, which in some years is limiting growth. Cellulose O-18 and C-13 values revealed that photoassimilates in the southern sites were produced under higher vapor pressure deficit conditions during spring compared to summer, demonstrating a previously underappreciated effect of seasonal differences in atmospheric humidity on tree ring isotope ratios. Our findings suggest that future changes in NAMS will potentially alter productivity and photosynthetic water use dynamics differentially along latitudinal gradients in southwestern U.S. montane forests.

Geophysical surveys in the Republic of Ireland and elsewhere rarely have the opportunity to receive direct, meaningful and quantitative feedback from ground observed excavations, despite their frequent occurrence as a subsequent phase of development-led archaeological projects. This research critically reappraises the largest and most coherent geophysical archive maintained by a single end-user over a ten year period. The geophysical archive has been collated from 170 reports on linear road schemes as a result of commercially-driven assessments in Ireland, to facilitate the biggest analysis of geophysical survey legacy data and subsequent detailed excavations. The analysis of the legacy data archive has reviewed and tested the influence of key variables that have, in some circumstances, affected the methods and outcomes of geophysical assessments in Ireland over the last 10 years. By understanding the impact of those key variables upon the legacy data - which include archaeological feature type, geology, sampling strategy and seasonality - appropriate and new ways to research linear corridors have been suggested that should be employed in future geophysical survey assessments for a range of environments and archaeological site types. The comprehensive analysis of geophysical surveys from the legacy data archive has created definitive statements regarding the validity of geophysical techniques in Ireland. Key failures that occurred in the past have been identified and a thorough investigation of new and novel techniques or methods of survey will facilitate a more robust approach to geophysical survey strategies in the future. The outcomes of this research are likely to have ramifications beyond the Irish road corridors from which the legacy data derives.

The purpose of this study has been to research how the low season affects tourism and how destination development is taken care of on the island of Gotland in Sweden. Gotland is a very popular travel destination during the busy summer months June, July and August, but the authors of this study felt that it would be interesting to investigate what happens with the tourism business during the rest of the year on the island. With the help of qualitative methods such as interviews with the local people, stakeholders, and observations made in the capital of Gotland Visby, the authors have gathered data to be analyzed and presented in this paper. The authors had the privilege to interview two tourism managers from Destination Gotland and Region Gotland, who provided important information for the study. To be able to find out how different aspects of destination development of low season tourism are taken to account, the authors prepared an interview guide for every specific interview, to match the topics discussed with the informants. It was important to the authors to fully engage to this study, so travelling to Visby and observe the island was a natural choice. This excursion gave the authors the possibility to discover the island not only from an academic perspective but also from a touristic one. / Syftet med denna kandidatuppsats har varit att undersöka hur lågsäsongen påverkar turismen och destinationsutvecklingen på ön Gotland. Gotland är ett mycket populärt resmål under sommarmånaderna juni, juli och augusti, men skribenterna av denna uppsats upplevde att det var av intresse att undersöka vad som sker inom turismen på ön under resterande delar av året. Med hjälp av kvalitativa metoder som intervjuer med lokalbefolkning och aktörer, men även observationer gjorda i residensstaden Visby har skribenterna samlat data som kommer att analyseras och presenteras i denna uppsats. Skribenterna fick även äran att intervjua två turistchefer från Destination Gotland och Region Gotland som bidrog med viktig information till undersökningen. För att kunna ta reda på hur olika aspekter inom destinationsutveckling av lågsäsongturism behandlas, har skribenterna utvecklat en intervjuguide för varje specifik intervju i syfte att stämma överens med temat som diskuterats med informanterna. Det var av vikt för skribenterna att fullständigt engagera sig i studien, vilket innebar att en resa till Visby på Gotland var ett naturligt val. Denna resa bidrog till att skribenterna fick möjligheten att upptäcka ön, inte endast från ett akademiskt perspektiv, men även från ett turistperspektiv.

This thesis deals with rainfall and water runoff regime in the catchment area of river Klabava. The aim of this thesis is to find changes in the rainfall-runoff regime during the period of observations (1950-2014) and if so, were these changes caused by climate changes or human activities. The research part includes description of rainfall-runoff process and Klabava catchment area description. In the applied part there is an analysis of precipitation - runoff regime for long-term time series of average and minimal annual, monthly and seasonal discharges and annual, monthly and seasonal precipitations using single and double mass curves and statistical tests testing absolute homogeneity, relative homogeneity and trend (by Mann-Whitney-Pettit, Alexandersson, Mann-Kendall tests). The tests were performed by freely available software AnClim designed for these purposes. Mann-Kendall test was performed by MULTMK/PARTMK available as a MS Excel macro for free. Plus, there is basic discussion of floods in Klabava river basin and flood seasonality. The homogeneity tests haven't found many changes at all, most of the detected changes concern the minimal runoff time series. The precipitation annual amount was detected with a raising trend, while the runoff time series seem to have no trend at all. Achieved...