The aim of this thesis is to design an investment strategy focused on tool called CFD. The first theoretical part contains basic information about financial derivates and explains basic principles of trading on stock market with contracts for difference. Chapter of the investment analysis explains the methods and rules used in trading. The practical part presents the results of my trading CFDs and evaluated my proposed strategy along with the benefits of work.

This thesis deals with the design of a model for trading on financial markets by using artificial intelligence. The work describes some methods of artificial intelligence, description of financial market and stock market trading. The result of this work is a model of an expert system which uses fuzzy logic for investing and a functional model for predicting the course of shares trends using artificial neural networks. Both models algorithms were designed and tested in MATLAB.

This diploma thesis describes the methods of valuation by using cost valuation method for family houses. The thesis defines the basic concepts from this field, methods of valuation and helps to create individual calculations. The main goal of this work is the valuation of five family houses by two cost valuation methods, their comparison and evaluation of the degree of difference between the methods. In order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to ascertain the total cost differences of individual constructions and equipment with the help of an itemized budget and by following the valuation order of the Ministry of Finance, compare the results and call attention to possible shortcomings of a given method.

This master thesis focuses on shares of companies who pay out dividends therefore dividend stocks. Shares from Czech stock market RM-SYSTÉM are anaylzed from publicly available data and portfolio is subsequently created from them.

The diploma thesis deals with fundamental share analyss in order to propose a variant of investing in shares of selected gold mining companies. The subject is macroeconomic analysis of the environment in which selected gold mining companies operate, gold industry analysis and company analysis comprising evaluation of the development of corporate indicators and their issued shares. On the basis of these analyzes ind inter-company comparison, the most profitable options will be proposed to the management of the hedge fund.

Warren Buffet started an investment partnership of $100 in 1956 and has gone on to accumulate a personal net worth of over $60 billion. He started primarily as a value investor, and gradually changed over time to a strategy which uses the PEG ratio as its main tool. Peter Lynch, one of the most successful fund managers in history and had a compound annual growth rate of 29% for 13 years, was the man to first introduce the world to the PEG ratio. With such prominence, however, widespread use of previously successful strategies tend to render them ineffective due to everyone using them, and today the PEG ratio’s effectiveness as a valuation tool remains a topical debate between market commentators.This study sets out to determine if the PEG ratio adds value using JSE Main Board data from 2002 to 2012. Returns from five portfolios constructed directly from share quintiles based on PEG ratio magnitude are compared to returns of a portfolio constructed from the optimum quintile of value shares. The PEG ratio portfolio returns are examined based on 3 rebalancing period strategies, and on relative performance between the quintiles within each strategy.It is found that a 24 monthly rebalancing strategy provides superior returns to that of 3 or 12 monthly rebalancing for PEG quintiles of selected stocks. Furthermore, the lowest PEG ratio quintile in this strategy outperforms the value portfolio by a compound annual growth rate of 4.3%. The second lowest PEG ratio quintile portfolio performs slightly better to ensure that 40% of stocks selected based on the PEG ratio produced sustained superior returns to the optimum quintile value portfolio. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

Public traded companies are obliged to account for their operating numbers from time to time. These numbers are usually published in their interim and annual reports. Besides annual accounts and their balance sheet, the income statement provides great value for potential investors and shareholders. This master thesis wants to prove that announcements of operating numbers have verifiable influence on share prices. Event studies are mainly used to determine abnormalities in return series. An event study focuses on the prediction of normal returns with the help of a certain market model and ascertains abnormal returns in a second step. The selection of a suitable market model is the essence of every event study. On the one hand, there are market models which use certain external factors in their regression equation, having influence on returns. On the other hand, a widely range of autoregressive models computes returns on the basis of their own precursors. Furthermore an extension to that is even able to detect and map volatility clustering in return series. Eventually the variety of different market models exhibits that return prediction can only be an approach to real observations. Besides the study of abnormalities on a certain event day, it could be worthwhile to examine intervals in return series prior and afterwards an incident. Keynote of this analysis is that investors and shareholders could detect earnings surprises premature and also trade afterwards a publication on an extraordinary basis. The statistical question raised is whether there are coincidences between significantly more distinct trends in return series and the release of business reports. Furthermore, it is arguable whether these coincidences appear only on a random basis or not. In addition to that, time series of capital market values succumb specific statistical characteristics. Properties like a leptokurtic distribution and weak stationarity constitute prerequisites to subsequent analysis. Additionally autocorrelation of returns is taken into particularly consideration. To sum up, it seems that capital markets provide a diversity of attributes to analyse. Taken all together, these procedures try to disprove capital market efficiency.:1 Einleitung 1 2 Theoretische Grundlagen 3 2.1 Bilanzanalyse 3 2.1.1 Rechte und Pflichten 3 2.1.2 Kennzahlen 4 2.2 Analyse des Kapitalmarktes 5 2.2.1 Aktienanalyse und Markteffizienzhypothese 5 2.2.2 Eregnisstudie 7 2.3 Annahmen 9 2.3.1 Datengrundlage 9 2.3.2 Thesenbildung 11 3 Grundlagen zur statistischen Auswertung 12 3.1 Renditeberechnung und –bereinigung 12 3.1.1 Stetige und diskrete Rendite 12 3.1.2 Marktbereinigte Renditen 13 3.1.3 Zeitpunktspezifischer t–Test 16 3.2 Definitionen 16 3.2.1 Stationarität, Leptokurtosis und Normalverteilung 17 3.2.2 Autokorrelation und Autokovarianz 18 3.2.3 White Noise, Random Walk und Lag–Operator 19 3.3 Linear stochastische Prozesse 20 3.3.1 Autoregressive Prozesse 21 3.3.2 Moving–Average–Prozesse 22 3.3.3 Autoregressive–Moving–Average–Prozesse 24 3.4 Modelle zum Volatilitätsclustering 25 3.4.1 ARCH–Modelle 25 3.4.2 GARCH–Modelle 27 3.4.3 Weiterführende Modelle 28 3.5 Berechnung erwarteter Gewinn 29 3.5.1 Hauptkomponentenanalyse 30 3.5.2 Saisonale Regression 31 3.5.3 Gewinnerwartung 33 3.6 Verfahren zu These 2 und 3 33 3.6.1 Koinzidenzanalyse 33 3.6.2 Bootstrapping 35 3.6.3 Monte–Carlo–Simulation 36 4 Literaturübersicht 37 4.1 Bisherige Studien über Gewinneinfluss 37 4.2 Studien mit Bezug auf ARCH–Modelle 38 4.3 Zusammenfassung 39 5 Ergebnisauswertung 40 5.1 Nachweis statistischer Eigenschaften 40 5.1.1 Stationarität, Leptokurtosis und Autokorrelation 40 5.1.2 Interpretation von Volatilität mittels GARCH–Prozess 44 5.1.3 Kritische Würdigung 47 5.2 Einfluss des Gewinns 47 5.2.1 Vorgehen 47 5.2.2 Ergebnisse 50 5.2.3 Kritische Würdigung 53 5.3 Ergebnisse der Koinzidenzanalyse 53 5.3.1 Vorgehen 53 5.3.2 Ergebnisse 56 5.3.3 Kritische Würdigung 58 6 Fazit 59

In Chapter 1, which is co-authored with Rossella Calvi and Arthur Lewbel, we show that a local average treatment effect (LATE) can sometimes be identified and consistently estimated when treatment is mismeasured, or when treatment is estimated using a possibly misspecified structural model. Our associated estimator, which we call Mismeasurement Robust LATE (MR-LATE), is based on differencing two different mismeasures of treatment. In our empirical application, treatment is a measure of empowerment: whether a wife has control of substantial household resources. Due to measurement difficulties and sharing of goods within a household, this treatment cannot be directly observed without error, and so must be estimated. Our outcomes are health indicators of family members. We first estimate a structural model to obtain the otherwise unobserved treatment indicator. Then, using changes in inheritance laws in India as an instrument, we apply our new MR-LATE estimator. We find that women's empowerment substantially decreases their probability of being anemic or underweight, and increases children's likelihood of receiving vaccinations. We find no evidence of negative effects on men's health. Then, using changes in inheritance laws in India as an instrument, we apply our new MR-LATE estimator. We find that women's empowerment substantially decreases their probability of being anemic or underweight, and increases children's likelihood of receiving vaccinations.In Chapter 2, which is co-authored with Alexander Wolf, we take the Dunbar et al (2013) (DLP) model and explore its strength and weaknesses at recovering information regarding household sharing of resources. DLP develop a collective model of the household that allows to identify resource shares, that is, how total household resources are divided up among household members. We show why, especially when the data exhibit relatively flat Engel curves, the model is weakly identified and induces high variability and an implausible pattern in least squares estimates. We propose an estimation strategy nested in their framework that greatly reduces this practical impediment to recovery of individual resource shares. To achieve this, we follow a shrinkage method that incorporates additional (or out-of-sample) information on singles and relies on mild assumptions on preferences. We show the practical usefulness of this strategy through a series of Monte Carlo simulations and by applying it to Mexican data. The results show that our approach is robust, gives a plausible picture of the household decision process, and is particularly beneficial for the practitioner who wishes to apply the DLP framework.Finally, in Chapter 3, which is co-authored with Bram De Rock and Tom Potoms, we exploit the experimental set-up of a conditional cash transfers (CCT) program in Mexico to estimate a collective model of the household and to investigate how parents allocate household resources. This is important to understand because the success of policies aimed at fighting poverty depends crucially on how parents respond to monetary incentives. If parents allocate resources inefficiently (or non-cooperatively), the resulting level of well-being is likely to fall behind the socially efficient optimum. This is undesirable given the prevalence of CCT programs over the last two decades which have occupied a large percentage of governments' annual anti-poverty budgets. Although there is evidence that they have been beneficial, their effectiveness may still be limited. Our aim is to tackle this research question by estimating a theoretically-consistent demand system and by applying at best a powerful test of household efficiency developed by Bourguignon et al (2009). Contrary to previous results, we show that households make efficient decisions only at the beginning of the program, but fail to cooperate later on. In order to rationalize these results, we propose a simple model of household behaviour where decision makers may change their preferences as a result of a treatment that gives information about the importance of a public good. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

1 Název, abstrakt a klíčová slova v anglickém jazyce Classes of Shares in Limited Liability Companies Abstract The Business Corporations Act has brought a number of innovations to Czech company law and has also opened up questions that almost no-one raised while the previous legal regulation was effective. Although many institutes already existed under the Civil Code of 1964 and the Commercial Code, the practice did not use the possibilities provided by the old regulation. Indeed, even the legal doctrine did not address many issues. One of these institutes is the institute of classes of shares. The dissertation is devoted to the creation of different classes of shares. The main research methods used when drafting this dissertation were selective literature research and analytical method, including comparative analysis. The method of abstraction and synthesis of acquired pieces of knowledge was used for generalizing the conclusions of the research goal. As regards the interpretation methods, a grammatical, logical, systematic, historical, teleological and comparative interpretation was used. Especially German, but also Austrian and Swiss laws were taken into account in the comparison and Anglo-American law in the passage concerning preference shares. The main research goal of the thesis was to analyse the...

The recent turbulence in the financial markets has contributed to the banks becoming more restrictive to lend to real estate financing. Deleveraging in Europe's banking sector has also contributed to banks reducing their leverage and increasing capital adequacy to meet the new requirements. Loan-to-value ratios in real estate loans have fallen while banks' interest margins have increased, which has made property investors to look for alternative sources of funding in the capital markets. The two most interesting forms of financing for real estate right now is bonds and preferred shares as they fit property companies that generate stable and predictable cash flows. A bond is an interest-bearing debenture certifying that the purchaser has lent money to the company that issued the bond. It's a very safe security since the only reason you would not be able to get your money back is if the company goes bankrupt. Preference shares structure is something between an ordinary share and a bond. The preference share generates an annual fixed predetermined dividend paid before common shareholders receive dividend which makes it much more predictable and stable relative to an ordinary share. Demand for investing in bonds and preference shares is considered good since equity investors have shown strong interest and these securities offer a good risk adjusted return The property companies that has issued both bonds and preferred shares have been selected to be further examined in this paper. The property companies currently consist of Corem Property Group, Fastighets AB Balder, Klövern AB and Sagax AB. Since 2007, all of these companies diversified their financing primarily through the issuing of preference shares and bonds, and the majority has moved towards a greater proportion of equity. It is clear that alternative sources of financing such as preferred shares and bonds will become more common in the future as it is abroad. / De senaste årens oro på finansmarknaden har bidragit till att bankerna har blivit mer restriktiva till att ge krediter till fastighetsfinansiering. Skuldnedväxlingen i den europeiska banksektorn har också bidragit till att bankerna minskar sin skuldsättningsgrad och ökar kapitaltäckningen för att möta nya krav. Belåningsgraderna vid fastighetskrediter har sjunkit samtidigt som bankernas räntemarginaler har ökat vilket har fått fastighetsinvesterare att söka sig till alternativa finansieringskällor på kapitalmarknaden. De två kanske mest intressanta finansieringsformerna för fastigheter just nu är obligationer och preferensaktier då de passar fastighetsbolag bra som genererar stabila och förutsägbara kassaflöden. En obligation är ett räntebärande skuldebrev som intygar att köparen har lånat ut pengar till det företag som emitterat obligationen. Det är väldigt säkra värdepapper då den enda anledningen till att man inte skulle kunna få tillbaka sina pengar är om företaget går i konkurs. Preferensaktiers struktur befinner sig i det närmaste mellan en vanlig stamaktie och en obligation. Preferensaktien ger en fast årlig förutbestämd utdelning som betalas ut före stamaktieägarna får utdelning vilket gör att den är mer förutsägbar och stabil i förhållande till en stamaktie. Efterfrågan på att investera i obligationer och preferensaktier får anses god då investerare vid emissioner har visat ett starkt intresse och nämnda värdepapper erbjuder en bra riskjusterad avkastning De fastighetsbolag som har emitterat både obligationer och preferensaktier har valts ut att undersökas närmare i denna uppsats. Dessa fastighetsbolag består i dagsläget av Corem Property Group, Fastighets AB Balder, Klövern AB och Sagax AB. Sedan år 2007 har alla dessa bolag diversifierat sin finansiering främst genom emitterande av preferensaktier och obligationer och majoriteten har gått mot en större andel eget kapital. Det kan konstateras att alternativa finansieringskällor som preferensaktier och obligationer kommer bli vanligare i framtiden vilket det är utomlands.