Low-lying coastal zones are high-risk areas threatened by flooding due to extreme coastal events and rising sea-levels. The coastal floodplain system includes elements such as near-shore waves and water levels, inter-tidal beaches and coastal habitats, natural and artificial sea defences and multiple inland floodplain features. Flood risk studies generally achieve an integrated assessment of these elements using multiple numerical models for different floodplain elements. However fundamental choices of floodplain description and the appropriate data, methods and models can vary widely between different sites and flood risk studies. A comprehensive conceptual model is needed to describe the floodplain system and help inform these choices in each site. However a descriptive conceptual model for coastal floodplain systems does not exist at present. There is a bias in flood risk studies towards the direct use of numerical models with limited use of conceptual models – existing models are implicit and do not describe the coastal floodplain system. This thesis addresses this gap by developing, applying and testing a rapid appraisal tool that conceptually describes the coastal floodplain as a system of interacting elements. The tool is developed in two parts – i) a quasi-2D Source – Pathway – Receptor (SPR) model that provides a comprehensive qualitative description of the floodplain; and ii) a Bayesian network model that uses this description to quantify individual elements as sources, pathways and receptors of flood propagation. The quasi-2D SPR is applied in 8 diverse coastal zones across Europe 4 of which include nested case-studies. It is an effective way of gathering and describing information about the floodplain from stakeholders across multiple disciplines. The Bayesian network model is applied to two contrasting floodplain systems in England – Teignmouth and Portsmouth. The network model is effective in pinpointing critical flood pathways and identifying key knowledge gaps for further analyses. The two models together provide a comprehensive understanding of the coastal floodplain system that can be used to inform and target the use of more detailed numerical models. Hence this thesis provides a conceptual model and tool to improve flood risk assessment. It makes conceptual understanding of the floodplain explicit and stratifies quantitative analysis by application of a rapid assessment tool before the use of detailed numerical models.

A padronização figura como uma alternativa importante para a indústria, trazendo redução de custos, aumento de produtividade e de qualidade dos processos e produtos gerados. No setor naval da Bacia do Sudeste, ela apresenta-se de forma mais tímida, uma vez que o volume de embarcações produzidas é muito menor se comparado a indústrias de massa. O presente trabalho apresenta um estudo sobre a padronização na indústria, demonstrando definições importantes relacionadas ao tema, bem como a apresentação de metodologias para a padronização de produtos e processos. De forma a gerar subsídios para a avaliação estrutural de projetos navais, são propostas duas diferentes metodologias, a primeira de cunho naval, proveniente da literatura técnica da área, e a segunda híbrida, baseada em uma norma para estruturas metálicas, que é validada através de uma análise não linear em elementos finitos. É realizado também um estudo preliminar visando desenvolver uma avaliação econômica, que considere diversos custos de fabricação e operação de uma embarcação, bem como contempla os benefícios da padronização. As metodologias mencionadas são utilizadas em três diferentes aplicações, aonde são propostas diversas configurações para o projeto de um painel básico de uma embarcação real, e os resultados destas análises são comparados ao projeto original, dando subsídios para uma avaliação preliminar da viabilidade econômica da padronização. Os dados gerados nestas análises são utilizados como parâmetros de entrada de um algoritmo de ajuste de leis potenciais chamado SLAW®, aos quais são capazes de prever o custo de determinada configuração através do cálculo de alguns parâmetros do projeto, permitindo identificar quais parâmetros são mais importantes na definição do custo do objeto em estudo. Ao final tem-se uma discussão dos resultados obtidos através das ferramentas mencionadas, visando avaliar a importância da padronização no custo da embarcação. / Standardization figure as an important alternative for the industry, bringing cost savings, increased productivity and quality of processes and products generated. In the naval sector of the Southeast Basin, it presents more timid, since the volume of produced vessels is much lower coMPared to mass industries. This paper presents a study on standardization in the industry, demonstrating important definitions related to the topic, and the presentation of methodologies for the standardization of products and processes. In order to generate subsidies for the structural evaluation, of naval projects, two different methods are proposed, the first hybrid, based on a standard for steel structures, which is validated through a nonlinear finite element analysis, and the second from naval sector, belonging to the technical literature. There are also proposed the basis for a methodology for the economic evaluation, which considers various manufacturing and operating costs of a vessel and includes the benefits of standardization. The methods mentioned are used in three different applications, where several settings for a basic panel design of a real vessel are proposed, the results of these analysis are compared to the original design, giving data for the evaluation of the economic viability of standardization. The data generated in these analysis are used as input parameters of a potential laws adjustment algorithm called SLAW®, these laws are able to predict the cost of a specific configuration by calculating some design parameters, allowing to identify which parameters are most important the definition of the cost of the object under study. At the end it presents a discussion of the results obtained through the mentioned tools, to evaluate the importance of standardization in the cost of the vessel.

This research has first established that it is based on multiple methodologies developed to tackle the areas of engineering cargo handling systems, both at port and on-board vessels, as well as in the area of organisational self-assessment. It continued in reviewing the current status and future aspects of marine safety assessment together with an examination of a few major accidents. The major problems identified in marine safety assessment in this research are associated with inappropriate treatment of uncertainty in data and human error issues during the risk modelling estimation process and the calculation of failure probabilities. Following the identification of the research needs, this thesis has developed several analytical models for the safety assessment of cargo handling systems and organisational assessment structure. Such models can be effectively integrated into a risk-based framework using the marine formal safety assessment, safety case concepts. Bayesian network (BN) and evidential reasoning (ER) approaches applicable to cargo handling engineering systems have been proposed for systematically and effectively addressing uncertainty due to randomness and vagueness in data respectively. ER test cases for both a vessel selection process and a comparison of the safety maturity of different organisations in terms of self-assessment have been produced within a domain in which main and sub criteria have been developed for assessment reasons a long with the combination of the proposed model with existing organisational models. BN test case for a Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) reliquefaction plant has been produced within a cause-effect domain in which Bayes' theorem is the focal mechanism of inference processing. A methodology aiming in finding the probability of failure when having variables ruled by uncertainty is established using certain variable transformation methods through the First and Second order reliability methodologies. Form/Sorm produces a most likely failure point, which is demonstrated through the application at a port cargo handling crane system. The outcomes have the potential to facilitate the decision-making process in a risk-based framework. Finally, the results of the research are summarised and areas where further research is required to improve the developed methodologies are outlined.

Recent high profile accidents involving environmental damage caused by structural failures in ageing oil tankers and bulk carriers has highlighted the importance of structural integrity issues involving these types of ships. Between 1980 and 1996, there were 186 total losses of bulk and combination carriers and 1,278 lives lost. These events have led to concerns from the public, media and within the international maritime community, about deteriorating ship structural safety standards and the environmental impact. Evidence suggests that structural failure may account for more ship losses than hitherto believed. Industry critics have complained that the quality of designs for new tonnage and effectiveness of the present control mechanisms governing structural condition for vessels in service, are inadequate. Due to the relatively low safety margins inherent in modern commercial ship structural designs, a buyer beware policy prevails in ship procurement. A weakness in current ship design practice appears to be the difficulty of incorporating an owner's individual preferences. Recognising that to be effective, improvements in ship structural design must be implemented at the design stage, this study addresses the challenge of further improving the structural safety and performance of large bulk ships through exercising specific options related to the structural design of the ship within the remit of the buyer. A broad comprehensive literature survey was conducted to cast a wide net around the problem. The complex web of regulatory controls affecting the design and operation of bulk ship hull structures was analysed and problems involving design, construction and maintenance of these vessels were uncovered to build evidence to justify proposing an improved method. An analysis of recent high profile tanker and bulk carrier accidents involving structural failure was performed, to determine root causes. These findings formed the basis for a proposed novel risk-based "design for safety" framework The core of the method is the new evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm developed on the basis of a MCDA evaluation framework and the evidence combination rule of the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) Theory. A number of structural design options focused on the cargo tank mid body area of a typical double hull VLCC were evaluated. A set of quantitative and qualitative criteria were identified and articulated, leading to a structural evaluation framework for eliciting preferences for competing options. The MCDAlER model provides a risk-based, rational, transparent methodology for rapid techno-economic evaluation of alternative structural designs, putting buyers in a stronger position to balance risks and determine the expected structural safety outcomes of different designs. The ER modelling is performed using the Intelligent Decision System (IDS) software program developed by Yang and Xu. The method was tested with an example and validated through a sensitivity study. Finally, the evidence necessary for constructing and demonstrating the MCDAlER structural evaluation framework was used to build the arguments for a safety case approach to hull structures using the Australian Offshore safety case model. The safety case for hull structures is built upon a foundation of existing prescriptive statutory and classification society structural regulatory requirements. The advantages of the safety case applied to oil tankers were explained, including suggestions for a new regulatory approach. The application of new technology and tools was discussed.

No description available.

This research has evaluated the rules, guidelines and regulations related to ship vibrations. A historical failure data analysis is carried out to identify associated components, equipment and the areas of defects related to ship vibration problems. Ship Hull Vibration (SHV) is recognised as a major problem onboard ships and the propulsion system is identified as the major contributor to SHV. The current status of ship vibrations is reviewed and possible sources which create SHV are recognised. The major problems identified in this research are associated with risk modelling under circumstances where high levels of uncertainty exist. Following the identification of research needs, this PhD thesis has developed several analytical models for the application of Formal Safety Assessment (FSA). Such mode quently demonstrated by their corresponding case sti vith regard to application of FSA for SHV modelling. Firstly, in this research a generic SHV model is constructed for the purpose of risk estimation based on the identified hazards. The hazards include the SHV effects induced by ship design criteria, failure of components, and different patterns associated with the ship propulsion system (propeller system and machinery) as the major contributors to SHV. Then risk estimation bn is carried out utilising Evidential Reasoning (ER) and a fuzzy rule base. Secondly, ship selection (decision making) is investigated to to select the best ship design based on the risk estimation results of SHV. The risk estimation is carried out using ER, a fuzzy rule base and continuous fuzzy sets. The best ship design is selected by taking into account an ER-based utility ranking approach. Thirdly, combining discrete fuzzy sets and an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) risk estimation is conducted in terms of four risk parameters to select the major causes of component failure and then SHV.

A padronização figura como uma alternativa importante para a indústria, trazendo redução de custos, aumento de produtividade e de qualidade dos processos e produtos gerados. No setor naval da Bacia do Sudeste, ela apresenta-se de forma mais tímida, uma vez que o volume de embarcações produzidas é muito menor se comparado a indústrias de massa. O presente trabalho apresenta um estudo sobre a padronização na indústria, demonstrando definições importantes relacionadas ao tema, bem como a apresentação de metodologias para a padronização de produtos e processos. De forma a gerar subsídios para a avaliação estrutural de projetos navais, são propostas duas diferentes metodologias, a primeira de cunho naval, proveniente da literatura técnica da área, e a segunda híbrida, baseada em uma norma para estruturas metálicas, que é validada através de uma análise não linear em elementos finitos. É realizado também um estudo preliminar visando desenvolver uma avaliação econômica, que considere diversos custos de fabricação e operação de uma embarcação, bem como contempla os benefícios da padronização. As metodologias mencionadas são utilizadas em três diferentes aplicações, aonde são propostas diversas configurações para o projeto de um painel básico de uma embarcação real, e os resultados destas análises são comparados ao projeto original, dando subsídios para uma avaliação preliminar da viabilidade econômica da padronização. Os dados gerados nestas análises são utilizados como parâmetros de entrada de um algoritmo de ajuste de leis potenciais chamado SLAW®, aos quais são capazes de prever o custo de determinada configuração através do cálculo de alguns parâmetros do projeto, permitindo identificar quais parâmetros são mais importantes na definição do custo do objeto em estudo. Ao final tem-se uma discussão dos resultados obtidos através das ferramentas mencionadas, visando avaliar a importância da padronização no custo da embarcação. / Standardization figure as an important alternative for the industry, bringing cost savings, increased productivity and quality of processes and products generated. In the naval sector of the Southeast Basin, it presents more timid, since the volume of produced vessels is much lower coMPared to mass industries. This paper presents a study on standardization in the industry, demonstrating important definitions related to the topic, and the presentation of methodologies for the standardization of products and processes. In order to generate subsidies for the structural evaluation, of naval projects, two different methods are proposed, the first hybrid, based on a standard for steel structures, which is validated through a nonlinear finite element analysis, and the second from naval sector, belonging to the technical literature. There are also proposed the basis for a methodology for the economic evaluation, which considers various manufacturing and operating costs of a vessel and includes the benefits of standardization. The methods mentioned are used in three different applications, where several settings for a basic panel design of a real vessel are proposed, the results of these analysis are compared to the original design, giving data for the evaluation of the economic viability of standardization. The data generated in these analysis are used as input parameters of a potential laws adjustment algorithm called SLAW®, these laws are able to predict the cost of a specific configuration by calculating some design parameters, allowing to identify which parameters are most important the definition of the cost of the object under study. At the end it presents a discussion of the results obtained through the mentioned tools, to evaluate the importance of standardization in the cost of the vessel.

A indústria marítima mundial (IMM) tem um comportamento reconhecidamente cíclico, em alguns momentos os armadores fazem grandes fortunas, em outros amargam enormes prejuízos, o que também ocorre com os demais setores dessa indústria. O objetivo deste trabalho é investigar a natureza e as causas desse comportamento. A IMM é um sistema complexo que pode ser dividido em quatro subsistemas principais: o mercado de frete, o mercado de navios de segunda mão, a indústria de construção naval e a indústria de demolição. Nem sempre as influências que essas quatro partes do mercado exercem umas sobre as outras é bem compreendida. Embora a IMM seja influenciada pela economia internacional, observou-se que seu comportamento é fortemente influenciado por fatores endógenos, tais como: sua própria estrutura; as relações organizacionais; e as decisões gerenciais que ocorrem nas várias partes dessa indústria. Adicionalmente, pode ser observado que tais relações têm características essencialmente dinâmicas. A Dinâmica de Sistemas (DS) parece ser uma ferramenta adequada à análise deste tipo de mercado, e, por essa razão, foi o método adotado para estudá-lo. Nesse método um modelo matemático é construído a partir do conhecimento descritivo das relações causais e funcionais existentes no mundo real. Foi elaborado um modelo preliminar que inclui três setores principais da indústria: o financeiro, o mercado de frete e a indústria de construção naval. Tais setores cobrem a maioria das interações relevantes determinantes do comportamento. O modelo é uma simplificação do mundo real em vários aspectos e se baseia em certas assunções, previamente estabelecidas. Apesar das simplificações, assunções e omissões, o comportamento do modelo, como pode ser observado nos resultados obtidos, reproduz de maneira razoável as séries históricas escolhidas para comparação (os Modos de Referência). Foi observado que a decisão pela encomenda de novos navios é um importante gerador do comportamento cíclico. Neste estudo preliminar tal decisão é fundamentada somente na análise da previsão de demanda de transporte marítimo e na expectativa de lucro dos armadores, que é função das receitas obtidas pelos armadores, seus custos totais, e uma taxa de retorno sobre o investimento, que foi arbitrada em 15%. O modelo aqui apresentado pode servir de fundamento para um maior desenvolvimento dessa área de investigação, e como guia para outros trabalhos. Espera-se que futuros trabalhos sejam realizados, de maneira a que se obtenha uma forte compreensão da IMM. Os resultados obtidos permitem concluir que a Dinâmica de Sistemas é uma ferramenta válida para investigação, e a continuação desta linha de pesquisa pode trazer resultados compensadores. / It is recognized that the world maritime industry has a cyclical behavior. Shipowners face periods of fabulous profits and disastrous miscalculations. The object of this work is to investigate the nature and causes of such behavior. The maritime industry is a complex system that can be split in four main markets: freight; second-hand ship; new ships and ships for demolition. The influences of one part on the others are not always well understood. Although the world economy influences the maritime industry, it has been observed that its behavior is fundamentally endogenous, such as: its own structure; the relationships between its parts; and the process of decision making. Furthermore, this behavior has strong dynamic characteristics. System Dynamics has been proving to be a suitable tool for analyzing such systems and, therefore, has been chosen. In this method a mathematical model is developed from a functional and causal description of the real system. A preliminary model was formulated which include three main sectors of industry: financial, freight market and shipbuilding industry. These sectors cover most of the relevant interactions and determinants of the behavior. The model simplified from the real world in many instances, and is based on certain assumptions previously stated. In spite of the simplifications, assumptions and omissions, the behavior of the model, as shown in computer results, replicates the most fundamental characteristics of the real world, the historical trends chosen as reference modes. It has been observed that the new ships ordering decisions are extremely important in stimulating the cyclical behavior. In this preliminary work this decision is founded on demand forecast and expected profitability of shipowners. This profitability is assumed as a function of shipowners total costs and a rate of return of investment, assumed as 15%. The model developed herein can serve as foundation structure upon which to develop more fully this area of investigation, and as a guide in such developments. It is hoped that further work is carried out towards gaining a sounder understanding of the maritime economics market cycles. Considering the results presented so far, it is possible to conclude that System Dynamics is a valid tool for investigation and can yield rewarding results.

A padronização figura como uma alternativa importante para a indústria, trazendo redução de custos, aumento de produtividade e de qualidade dos processos e produtos gerados. No setor naval da Bacia do Sudeste, ela apresenta-se de forma mais tímida, uma vez que o volume de embarcações produzidas é muito menor se comparado a indústrias de massa. O presente trabalho apresenta um estudo sobre a padronização na indústria, demonstrando definições importantes relacionadas ao tema, bem como a apresentação de metodologias para a padronização de produtos e processos. De forma a gerar subsídios para a avaliação estrutural de projetos navais, são propostas duas diferentes metodologias, a primeira de cunho naval, proveniente da literatura técnica da área, e a segunda híbrida, baseada em uma norma para estruturas metálicas, que é validada através de uma análise não linear em elementos finitos. É realizado também um estudo preliminar visando desenvolver uma avaliação econômica, que considere diversos custos de fabricação e operação de uma embarcação, bem como contempla os benefícios da padronização. As metodologias mencionadas são utilizadas em três diferentes aplicações, aonde são propostas diversas configurações para o projeto de um painel básico de uma embarcação real, e os resultados destas análises são comparados ao projeto original, dando subsídios para uma avaliação preliminar da viabilidade econômica da padronização. Os dados gerados nestas análises são utilizados como parâmetros de entrada de um algoritmo de ajuste de leis potenciais chamado SLAW®, aos quais são capazes de prever o custo de determinada configuração através do cálculo de alguns parâmetros do projeto, permitindo identificar quais parâmetros são mais importantes na definição do custo do objeto em estudo. Ao final tem-se uma discussão dos resultados obtidos através das ferramentas mencionadas, visando avaliar a importância da padronização no custo da embarcação. / Standardization figure as an important alternative for the industry, bringing cost savings, increased productivity and quality of processes and products generated. In the naval sector of the Southeast Basin, it presents more timid, since the volume of produced vessels is much lower coMPared to mass industries. This paper presents a study on standardization in the industry, demonstrating important definitions related to the topic, and the presentation of methodologies for the standardization of products and processes. In order to generate subsidies for the structural evaluation, of naval projects, two different methods are proposed, the first hybrid, based on a standard for steel structures, which is validated through a nonlinear finite element analysis, and the second from naval sector, belonging to the technical literature. There are also proposed the basis for a methodology for the economic evaluation, which considers various manufacturing and operating costs of a vessel and includes the benefits of standardization. The methods mentioned are used in three different applications, where several settings for a basic panel design of a real vessel are proposed, the results of these analysis are compared to the original design, giving data for the evaluation of the economic viability of standardization. The data generated in these analysis are used as input parameters of a potential laws adjustment algorithm called SLAW®, these laws are able to predict the cost of a specific configuration by calculating some design parameters, allowing to identify which parameters are most important the definition of the cost of the object under study. At the end it presents a discussion of the results obtained through the mentioned tools, to evaluate the importance of standardization in the cost of the vessel.

Dissertação(mestrado)-Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geografia, Instituto de Ciências Humanas e da Informação, 2011. / Submitted by Caroline Silva (krol_bilhar@hotmail.com) on 2012-06-26T13:46:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 POLO NAVAL DO RIO GRANDE DESAFIO A ESTRUTURAÇÃO TÉCNOPRODUTIVA.pdf: 4009878 bytes, checksum: b2ba0d76be290084eb29c2458858e2c5 (MD5) / Rejected by Sabrina Andrade(sabrinabeatriz@ibest.com.br), reason: on 2012-07-03T22:31:31Z (GMT) / Submitted by Caroline Silva (krol_bilhar@hotmail.com) on 2012-07-05T22:28:27Z No. of bitstreams: 1 POLO NAVAL DO RIO GRANDE DESAFIO A ESTRUTURAÇÃO TÉCNOPRODUTIVA.pdf: 4009878 bytes, checksum: b2ba0d76be290084eb29c2458858e2c5 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Bruna Vieira(bruninha_vieira@ibest.com.br) on 2012-07-28T18:01:07Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 POLO NAVAL DO RIO GRANDE DESAFIO A ESTRUTURAÇÃO TÉCNOPRODUTIVA.pdf: 4009878 bytes, checksum: b2ba0d76be290084eb29c2458858e2c5 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-07-28T18:01:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 POLO NAVAL DO RIO GRANDE DESAFIO A ESTRUTURAÇÃO TÉCNOPRODUTIVA.pdf: 4009878 bytes, checksum: b2ba0d76be290084eb29c2458858e2c5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / Esta dissertação tem por objetivo identificar empresas fornecedoras à indústria do petróleo, gás natural e naval localizadas no Rio Grande do Sul e, em particular, na região do COREDE Sul, inseridas na Rede Petro/RS e SEBRAE (Serviço de Apoio ás Micro e Pequenas Empresas). Para tanto, a metodologia utilizada foi o estudo de caso, com a identificação das empresas fornecedoras à indústria do petróleo, gás natural e naval no Rio Grande do Sul e, em particular no COREDE Sul, a partir de levantamentos indiretos junto à Rede Petro/RS e SEBRAE/RS, e após esta etapa foi realizado a tipificação das mesmas, através da consulta ao catálogo FIERGS, bem como aos sítios eletrônicos quando disponível. Os resultados desta dissertação evidenciam a tendência de os COREDES Metropolitano, Vale do Rio dos Sinos e Serra se consolidarem como principais fornecedores ao Polo Naval e Offshore do Rio Grande, e o COREDE Sul participando da referida cadeia com uma pequena quantidade de empresas, muitas delas prestadoras de serviços de baixo valor agregado. / This dissertation aims to identify suppliers to the petroleum industry, natural gas and naval located in Rio Grande do Sul and in particular in the region of South COREDES, inserted into Rede Petro/RS and SEBRAE (Support Service for Micro and Small Companies). For this purpose, the methodology used was case study, with the identification of suppliers to the petroleum industry, natural gas and shipbuilding in Rio Grande do Sul, particularly in South COREDES from indirect surveys by the Rede Petro/RS and SEBRAE RS, and after this step was done typing them, by consulting the catalog FIERGS as well as to their websites when available. The results of this thesis show the tendency of COREDES Metropolitan, River Valley of the Bells and Sierra are consolidated as the main suppliers to the Naval and Offshore Polo Rio Grande, and South COREDES participating in the chain with such a small number of companies, many providers services with low added value.