Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises like e.g. the Mekong delta. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent, more intense and stochastic high water level events.

Understanding the relationship between drought and population dynamics is increasingly important, particularly in areas where high population growth corresponds with increasing drought risk due to climate change. We examine the relationship between drought events and population dynamics using a stylized hydrology-demography model that has been calibrated to simulate plausible feedbacks for the population decline of the Ancient Maya of Central America. We employ a deterministic and a stochastic approach. We find that the impact of drought increases abruptly once a critical threshold of population density is exceeded. The critical threshold depends on the intensity and duration of the drought as well as on the level of technology adopted by society, the extent of markets and societal behavior. The simulations show that, for a society to be as food secure post-climate change as they are pre-climate change, strategies would have to be adopted to not only increase the region's capacity to provide sufficient resources for its growing population, but also to buffer the impact of a drier climate on productivity. This study provides suggestions on how technological, societal and economic development can modify the system to mitigate the impacts of climate change on the human population.

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Le bassin du Merguellil, en Tunisie centrale, fournit un exemple illustratif des processus hydrologiques profondément modifiés par l’action humaine. L’oued Merguellil, le principal cours d’eau du bassin, a vécu une évolution socio-hydrologique extrêmement marquée. En effet, son état actuel est l’héritage d’une longue histoire d’interactions entre l’homme et son milieu. Il est actuellement intermittent sur la majeure partie de son cours, or les dires des riverains et les documents anciens révèlent qu’il n’en était pas ainsi au début du siècle dernier. Le recours aux informations anciennes issues des documents d’archives a montré que l’oued Merguellil était autrefois soutenu principalement par le déversement de la nappe captive de Bouhefna. Durant les années 1974-1975 et afin de transférer les eaux souterraines du bassin du Merguellil vers les régions côtières, une stratégie politique a été mise en place pour rabattre le niveau de la nappe de Bouhefna de manière à pouvoir réduire ‘’les pertes’’ par évaporation dans l’oued Merguellil et minimiser l’écoulement souterrain vers la nappe voisine de Haffouz d’intérêt hydrogéologique moins important. Comme prévu, cela a induit une inversion du gradient hydraulique oued-nappe inférant le tarissement des sources de déversement, la vidange de la nappe d’accompagnement et la disparition du débit de base de l’oued Merguellil à partir de 1976-1978. La modélisation hydrodynamique établie dans cette thèse suggère que le flux souterrain qui transitait vers l’oued par drainance verticale avant l’inversion du gradient hydraulique est de l’ordre de 9 hm3. Désormais c’est les crues de l’oued qui alimentent la nappe alluviale et les nappes superficielles. Le flux moyen infiltré lors de la propagation des crues est estimé à 17 hm3 dans la section de l’oued entre la station de Haffouz et barrage El Haouareb pour l’année 2013-2014.Toutefois, le schéma de gestion de la nappe de Bouhefna a été basé exclusivement sur des considérations hydrodynamiques sans tenir compte de l’évolution des usages. En effet, la disparition de l’étiage de l’oued a contraint les riverains à abandonner les canaux d’irrigation traditionnels et à opter pour l’installation de motopompes et la mise en place des forages profonds. Cette rétroaction face au changement de régime d’écoulement de l’oued a contribué à perturber davantage l’équilibre hydrologique. Cela s’est traduit par une exploitation excessive des eaux souterraines avec une baisse actuelle observée de la piézométrie supérieure à 1m/an et une inversion du gradient entre la nappe de Bouhefna et la nappe de Haffouz. La modélisation hydrodynamique suggère que les flux moyens échangés par drainance verticale sont passés de 8 hm3 en 1970 à 2 hm3 en 2015. Dans le sens inverse, les flux transitant depuis la nappe de Haffouz vers la nappe de Bouhefna sont évolués de 1 hm3 en 1970 à 6 hm3 en 2015, imposant ainsi un risque de salinité à long terme.Le transfert des eaux de Bouhefna vers les régions côtières, même s’il est largement contesté par les populations locales, n’a jamais été mis en avant comme facteur explicatif des évolutions hydrologiques vécues localement, les travaux de cette thèse permettent pourtant de montrer à quel point ce transfert d’eau a influencé le régime hydrologique de l’oued. Toutefois, en n’omettant pas leurs propres responsabilités dans ces dynamiques, les agriculteurs font preuve de lucidité. En effet, le modèle hydrodynamique suggère que la part cumulée des volumes en eau souterraine mobilisés par ces derniers après la disparition de l’étiage de l’oued est comparable à celle destinée à l’eau potable. Les résultats de cette thèse rejoignent les recherches en socio-hydrologie qui appellent à intégrer les aspects sociaux dans les schémas de gestion pour garantir un développement durable des ressources en eaux. / The Merguellil basin in central Tunisia provides an illustrative example of hydrological processes profoundly modified by human action. The Wadi Merguellil, the main river of the basin, has experienced an extremely marked socio-hydrological evolution. Its current state is the legacy of a long history of interactions between man and his environment. Truly, it is currently intermittent over most of its course, but the statements of farmers and archival records reveal that this was not the case at the beginning of the last century. The use of ancient information from archival documents has shown that the Wadi Merguellil was supported mainly by the overflow of the confined aquifer of Bouhefna. During the years 1974-1975 and in order to transfer groundwater resources from the Merguellil basin to the coastal regions, a management plan was put in place. The aim of this plan was to reduce the level of the Bouhefna aquifer so as to reduce '' losses '' by evaporation in the Wadi Merguellil and minimize the groundwater flow towards the nearby Haffouz aquifer. As expected, this strategy led to a reversal of the hydraulic gradient inferring the drying up of the overflow springs, the emptying of the alluvial aquifer and the disappearance of the Wadi Merguellil baseflow during the period 1976-1978. The hydrodynamic model established in this thesis suggests that the averaged groundwater flow that was feeding the Wadi before the hydraulic gradient reversal is around 9 hm3. Currently, it is rather the floods of the Wadi that feed the alluvial aquifer and the shallow aquifers. The average flow infiltrated during the propagation of flood events is estimated at 17 hm3 in the section of the wadi between the Haffouz station and El Haouareb dam for the year 2013-2014.Though, the exploitation management plan of the Bouhefna aquifer was based exclusively on hydrodynamic considerations without taking into account the evolution of hydro-agricultural practices. Indeed, the disappearance of the baseflow of the Wadi Merguellil has forced farmers to abandon traditional irrigation canals and opt for the installation of motor pumps and the establishment of deep wells. This feedback on the change in the Wadi flow regime has further disrupted the hydrological balance. This resulted in an excessive exploitation of the groundwater with an observed current decrease of the piezometry higher than 1m/year and a reversal of the hydraulic gradient between the Bouhefna aquifer and the Haffouz aquifer. The hydrodynamic model suggests that the average flow exchanged by vertical drainage has decreased from 8 hm3 in 1970 to 2 hm3 in 2015. In the opposite direction, the average flow transiting from the Haffouz aquifer to the Bouhefna aquifer has increased from 1 hm3 in 1970 to 6 hm3 in 2015, imposing a risk of salinity in the long term.The transfer of water from Bouhefna to the coastal regions, even though it is widely disputed by the local populations, has never been put forward as a factor explaining the hydrological evolution experienced locally. The work of this thesis allows to show how much this transfer of water has influenced the hydrological regime of the wadi. However, by not omitting their own responsibilities in these dynamics, farmers are lucid. Indeed, the hydrodynamic model suggests that the cumulative part of groundwater volumes mobilized by the latter after the disappearance of the Wadi baseflow is comparable to that for drinking water. The results of this thesis are in line with research in socio-hydrology that calls for integrating social aspects into management plans to ensure sustainable development of water resources.

Throughout history there has been a close relationship between hydrological and social processes. Most of early civilizations around the world developed thanks to the accessibility to rivers and their water resources. However, traditional hydrological approaches have not been able to capture this observed interaction and have ignored for too long the human-driven impacts in the hydrological system and how they, in turn, shape the hydrological conditions that have been commonly observed. The present research develops a new conceptual model with the intention to capture the two-way interactions between societies and their responses under extreme hydrological events, both floods and droughts. This conceptualization accounts for the observations that societies accumulate memory (increase the level of awareness) after an extreme events. Based on the accumulation of societal memory, the human system (societies) takes decisions about water management, thus impacting the hydrological system (rivers). When no extreme hydrological events are registered, societal memory decays at a certain rate and then new decisions are taken over the water management of the hydrological system. Inspired by the extreme droughts and floods events observed in the three last decades in the catchment of the Brisbane River in Australia, the aforementioned conceptualization is applied. Results indicated that the simple proposed conceptual model is able to capture the interactions between the human and the hydrological system. Additionally, the model exposes that societal memory is the driver of the human system and is the main reason for societies to create impacts on the natural conditions of the catchment. At the same time, this conceptualization demonstrated that water management decisions based on the accumulation of societal memory can actually create an exacerbation of the potential damages associated to extreme hydrological events. Finally, the development of this new approach points out the strong necessity to acquire further insights to improve the understanding of the interplay between hydrological and social processes. / Genom historien har det funnits en nära relation mellan hydrologiska och sociala processer. De flesta tidiga civilisationer runt om i världen utvecklades tack vare tillgången till floder och deras vattenresurser. Traditionella hydrologiska metoder har emellertid inte lyckats fånga denna observerade interaktion och har alltför länge ignorerat de mänskligt drivna effekterna i det hydrologiska systemet och hur de i sin tur formar de hydrologiska förhållandena som ofta observerats. Denna forskning har utvecklat en ny konceptuell modell med avsikt att fånga tvåvägsinteraktionen mellan samhällen och deras respons under extrema hydrologiska händelser, både översvämningar och torka. Denna konceptualisering baseras på observationen att samhällen ackumulerar minne (ökar medvetenheten) efter en extrem händelse. Baserat på ansamling av samhällets minne fattar det mänskliga systemet (samhällen) beslut över vattenhushållning, vilket påverkar det hydrologiska systemet (floder). När inga extrema hydrologiska händelser registreras, avklingar samhällsminnet med en viss hastighet och sedan fattas nya beslut om vattenhushållningen i det hydrologiska systemet. Den konceptuella modellen har tillämpats på Brisbaneflodens avrinningsområde, i Australien, med anledning av den extrema torka och stora översvämningar som observerats under de tre senaste decennierna. Resultaten tyder på att den enkla föreslagna konceptuella modellen kan fånga samspelet mellan människa och hydrologiska system. Dessutom visar den att ett samhälles minne är drivkraften för det mänskliga systemet och är den främsta orsaken till att samhällen gör inverkan på de naturliga förhållandena i avrinningsområdet. Samtidigt visar konceptualiseringen att denna typ av vattenförvaltning, som baseras på samhällsminnet, faktiskt kan förstärka de potentiella skador som kan uppkomma i samband med extrema hydrologiska händelser. Slutligen framhåller utvecklingen av denna nya metod det stora behov som finns för att förbättra förståelsen av samspelet mellan de hydrologiska och sociala processerna.

Los Angeles has historically been subjected to droughts and water shortages. This has led the city to acquire distant water resources, allowing the city to grow extensively. Today, the city is dependent on large water infrastructure to supply water over distances of hundreds of kilometres. This thesis explores how water demand in Los Angeles has been impacted by drought, focusing on drought years 2007-2010 and 2012-2019. The study compares hydrological, conservation and water demand data and places it into context by connecting it to policy changes. By looking at streamflow and precipitation data it is visible that the latter drought was drier than the former. Water demand has decreased in all consumer categories. Meanwhile, conservation has increased. Drought events have led the city to apply policy changes and conservation measures which in turn, has resulted in a reduction in water demand during both droughts. / I Los Angeles har det historiskt sett förekommit både torka och vattenbrist. Detta har lett till att vattenresurser anskaffats från avlägsna platser, som i sin tur har möjliggjort stadens tillväxt. I dagsläget är staden beroende av storskalig vatteninfrastruktur som försörjer invånarna med vatten från hundratals kilometer bort. I kandidatarbetet utforskas torkans inverka på vattenefterfrågan i Los Angeles. Torkan som rådde mellan åren 2007–2010 och 2012–2019 undersöks genom att studera data om hydrologi, vattenefterfråga och vattenbevaring, samt genom att koppla dessa till den politiska diskursen. Det framkommer att den senare torkan var torrare än den andra. Efterfrågan har minskat i alla konsument- klasser, medan bevarandet av vatten har ökat. Torka har lett till att staden implementerat politiska förändringar och bevarandeåtgärder som i sin tur lett till en minskad vattenefterfrågan.

The need to better comprehend the relationship between societies and the hydrological cycle led scientists to develop sophisticated mathematical models in order to predict how these relationships will be in the future. However, some transformations might not be predicted in such socio-hydrological models, what makes necessary to search for new methods to build scenarios. In this way, the present work seeks to understand how societies will change the way they deal with water resources regarding different drivers of change, such as population growth, changes in climate, land cover, patterns of consumption and influence of governmental institutions. To do so, this work employs not only official data sets that are public available, but also information provided by citizens through citizen observatories concepts of crowdsourcing, participatory governance and environmental monitoring. Such volunteered information is based on their own experiences, knowledge and individual patterns regarding water management and sanitation aspects from the study area, São Carlos city. The conclusions reveal that the new tool presented in this work, the Socio-Hydrological Observatory for Water Security (SHOWS), makes possible to outline future trajectories of coevolution in coupled human-water system and provide assessment on water security scenarios. This work integrates the water security component facing climate changes, from INCT-MC2 (FAPESP 2014/50848-9), contributes to better comprehend socio hydrological aspects in UK Academies (FAPESP 2018/03473-0) and provides a new tool, the SHOWS, which assists decision makers in resilient cities, in the context of CEPID/CEMEAI (FAPESP 2011/51305-0) e do SPRINT-Warwick (FAPESP 2018/08413-6). At international level, it is a contribution to the activities of \"Panta Rhei – Everything Flows 2013-2022\", promoted by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, which seeks to understand, estimate and predict the hydrological dynamics to support societies under change. / A necessidade de compreender as relações entre as sociedades e o ciclo hidrológico levou cientistas a elaborarem sofisticados modelos matemáticos para prever como estas relações serão no futuro. Porém, determinadas transformações podem não ser previstas nestes modelos sócio-hidrológicos, sendo necessário recorrer a novos métodos para elaborar cenários. Desta maneira, o presente trabalho busca entender como as sociedades irão modificar a maneira que lidam com os recursos hídricos frente aos vetores de mudanças, como crescimento demográfico, alterações climáticas, mudanças do uso e ocupação do solo, influência de instituições governamentais e padrões de consumo da população. Para isto, este trabalho emprega não somente o uso de dados oficiais, disponibilizados em plataformas públicas, mas também as informações fornecidas por cidadãos através dos conceitos dos observatórios cidadãos, como crowdsourcing, governança participativa e monitoramento ambiental. Estas informações voluntárias são baseadas em suas experiências, conhecimentos e padrões individuais em relação a aspectos necessários a gestão dos recursos hídricos e dos sistemas de saneamento da área de estudo, o município de São Carlos. Ao fim, conclui-se que, a partir da ferramenta Observatório Sócio Hidrológico para Segurança Hídrica (SHOWS), é possível interpretar possíveis trajetórias de coevolução entre os sistemas sociais e naturais de maneira a avaliar os cenários de segurança hídrica. Este estudo integra a componente de segurança hídrica frente às mudanças climáticas do INCT-MC2 (FAPESP 2014/50848-9), contribui para a compreensão dos aspectos sócio hidrológicos do UK Academies (FAPESP 2018/03473-0), além de testar uma nova ferramenta, o SHOWS, que serve de auxílio à tomada de decisão em cidades resilientes, no contexto do CEPID/CEMEAI (FAPESP 2011/51305-0) e do SPRINT-Warwick (FAPESP 2018/08413-6). Em âmbito internacional, é uma contribuição às atividades da década científica \"Panta Rhei – Everything Flows 2013-2022\", promovida pela International Association of Hydrological Sciences, a qual busca entender, estimar e prever dinâmicas hidrológicas para apoiar sociedades sob mudanças.

Les retenues collinaires connaissent un essor dans les zones semi-arides pour leur capacité à réduire l'érosion et l'envasement de barrages, et à mobiliser des ressources pour la petite agriculture. Face aux incertitudes sur la faible valorisation de ces ressources et au manque de données sur le potentiel hydrique de ces aménagements, les disponibilités en eau de multiples retenues collinaires sont quantifiées à l'aide d'observations hydrologiques, modélisation numérique et télédétection. Un indice MNDWI appliqué à 546 images Landsat et combiné avec un modèle GR4J+bilan hydrique à l'aide d'un filtre de Kalman d'ensemble est développé pour estimer les disponibilités en eau entre 1999 et 2014 de 50 retenues dans le bassin amont du Merguellil, Tunisie Centrale. Les erreurs sur la disponibilité moyenne journalière sont de l'ordre de 10 000 m3 sur des retenues aux capacités initiales variant de 20 000 m3 à plus de 1 000 000 m3 et permirent de quantifier et caractériser le potentiel hydrique de chaque retenue en saison sèche. En parallèle, la combinaison d'inventaires, d'enquêtes agricoles et entretiens ethnographiques permit de recenser l'hétérogénéité des pratiques, caractériser les bénéfices des retenues et éclairer les contraintes additionnelles freinant l'exploitation agricole. Au delà de prélèvements limités, cette approche multi-échelle permet d'apporter des éclairages sur la diversification des pratiques agricoles, sur les bénéfices indirects (citernes, élevage, recharge de puits), et sur l'intérêt porté par les riverains pour cette ressource, au sens large du terme. La confrontation entre les pratiques et le potentiel hydrologique confirme que la disponibilité en eau est un facteur limitant sur 80% des retenues mais rarement suffisant pour expliquer les disparités inter et intra retenues observées. La majorité des agriculteurs ont été inhibés par des problèmes d'accès à l'eau (d'ordre économique mais également politique) et ne sont pas équipés de stratégies permettant de composer avec la forte variabilité. Les quelques succès recensés sont le fruit d'entreprises individuelles, possédant un capital et une résilience économique, leur permettant notamment de surmonter les pénuries à l'aide d'autres ressources économiques (pour acheter des citernes) ou physiques (accès à d'autres points d'eau). Une approche intégrée et un appui sur le long terme de l'état auraient pu favoriser un développement plus large et équitable des ressources. Au vu des capacités limitées et des sécheresses durables, les retenues collinaires dans ce contexte climatique doivent cependant maintenir leur objectif initial d'irrigation de complément et non chercher à soutenir une intensification à plus grande échelle de l'agriculture. / Small reservoirs and other water and soil conservation techniques have become increasingly widespread across semi-arid regions, due to their ability to reduce transportation of eroded soil and harvest scarce and unreliable rainfall for local users. Revealing diverse but often limited levels of agricultural water use, the reasons behind these were explored based on assessments of water availability, practices and associated drivers upscaled across 50 small reservoirs in the Upper Merguellil catchment (Central Tunisia). MNDWI on 546 treated Landsat images over 1999-2014 were used in combination with extensive field data to develop and validate water availability assessments for all reservoirs. An Ensemble Kalman Filter approach was used to combine remotely sensed surface area with a GR4J-water balance model and notably reduce runoff uncertainties arising from highly variable and localised rainfall intensities. These notably reduced mean annual availability RMSE to the order of 10 000 m3 on lakes where initial capacities vary between 20 000 m3 and over 1 000 000 m3, and identified the potential of each lake to support agriculture during the dry season.In parallel, rapid surveys, quantitative questionnaires and semi directed interviews were used to identify water uses and socio economic and institutional drivers influencing the smallholder livelihoods around these reservoirs. Using multi-stage samples of farmers allowed to progressively narrow and refine the analysis which were then upscaled based on typologies of lakes. Results confirmed withdrawals remained limited and focussed essentially on the occasional watering of fruit trees. On a handful of lakes, water resources were a limiting factor but rarely a sufficient factor to explain the heterogeneous water uses observed around reservoirs. Most farmers were not equipped with the suitable capabilities to increase their withdrawals as a result of problems over pumps, water access and conflicts, compounded through limited and short term government assistance. Individual successes were observed as a result of farmers possessing adequate economic resilience and/or means to secure alternate water supplies during dry spells. Faced with limited available storage capacities and prolonged droughts, small reservoirs must in this climatic context retain their supplementary irrigation focus and not strive to support widespread intensification of practices.

Urbanization is continuously growing all over the world. Both developing and developed countries encourage rapid expansion for increased growth and production. However, urbanization in combination with climate change can lead to higher chances of extreme flood events. Mankind always settled around rivers and floodplains that are naturally more flood prone areas, making stormwater modeling and urban planning indispensable for safety and reduction of flood risk.Until now many important studies have been conducted on the dangers of living in floodplains of urbanized cities, but most of them are about developing countries such as Bangladesh or Vietnam, leaving a noticeable gap in the developed world. However, all these researches share one thing in common as they do not take into account the interactions between water and society by ignoring the constantly changing human factor.Socio-hydrology is a new branch of hydrology closely related to Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) that tries to explore this dynamic relationship. This study explores the historical evolution of a highly urbanized industrial city in Finland and attempts to understand both the human and engineering effects of urbanization. The city of Pori is the most flood prone area in Finland, which makes for an important study that will yield important results and possible recommendations for future research, while for the first time incorporating socio-hydrology, the human factor and flood risk in a major European city.This is an empirical project with data collected from various different sources put all together for the first time that could change the perceptions of both inhabitants and scientists and be the basis for a more thorough, modeling based research in the future. The research question of this dissertation is how socio-hydrological dynamics have affected flood risk changes over the past decades in the city of Pori. / Urbaniseringen växer fortlöpande över hela världen. Både industriländer och utvecklingsländer befrämjar snabb expansion för ökad tillväxt och produktion. Dock leder urbanisering i kombination med klimatförändring till högre risk för extrema översvämningar. Människor har i alla tider bosatt sig runt vattendrag och flodslätter som naturligt är mer benägna att översvämmas, något som gör att dagvattenhantering och stadsplanering är absolut nödvändigt för ökad säkerhet och reducerad översvämningsrisk.Fram tills nu har många viktiga studier genomförts som behandlar farorna för människor bosatta i urbaniserade städer intill flodslätter, men de flesta av dem har utgått från utvecklingsländer som Bangladesh eller Vietnam, något som lett till en märkbar avsaknad av information gällande industri-länder. Gemensamt för dessa studier är dock att de ignorerar den ständigt föränderliga mänskliga faktorn och på så sätt inte tar i beaktning interaktioner mellan vatten och samhälle.Socio-hydrologi är en ny gren inom hydrologi som är nära besläktad med Integrerad Vattenresurs-förvaltning och som försöker utforska detta dynamiska samspel. Denna studie undersöker den historiska utvecklingen av en starkt urbaniserad industristad i Finland och försöker tolka de mänskliga och tekniska effekterna av urbanisering. Staden Pori (Björneborg på svenska) är den mest översvämningsbenägna platsen i Finland, vilket gör denna studie till ett viktigt arbete för att ta fram betydelsefulla resultat och eventuella rekommendationer för framtida forskning. Dessutom inkorporeras socio-hydrologi, den mänskliga faktorn och översvämningsrisk för första gången i forskning gällande en större europeisk stad.Detta är ett empiriskt projekt med data insamlat från olika källor som sammanställts för första gången och som kan förändra både invånares och forskares synsätt, samt vara en grund för mer utförlig och modellbaserad forskning i framtiden. Frågan som denna avhandling försöker besvara är hur socio-hydrologisk dynamik har påverkat förändringar av översvämningsrisker i staden Pori i Finland över de senaste årtiondena.