Forecasting the potential range of invasive species is a critical component for risk assessment, monitoring, and management. However, many of these invasive species are not yet at equilibrium which can be problematic for many modelling approaches. Using the climate matching method, MaxEnt, a series of species distribution models (SDMs) and risk analysis maps were created for select apple snail species in Florida: Pomacea canaliculata, P. diffusa, and P. maculata. Apple snails, freshwater gastropods in the family Ampullariidae, are native to South America and were introduced to the United States via the pet trade approximately 40 years ago. These highly invasive species have already been introduced in ten states and established in at least seven. The models and risk analysis in this study show the majority of Florida was at least moderately suitable for all apple snails modeled, with P. maculata posing the greatest threat.

With exploding human populations and landscapes that are changing, an increasing number of wildlife species are brought to the brink of extinction. In Canada, the eastern hog-nosed snake, 'Heterodon platirhinos', is found in a limited portion of southern Ontario. Designated as threatened by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC), this reptile has been losing its habitat at an alarming rate. Due to the increase in development of southern Ontario, it is crucial to document what limits the snake’s habitat to direct conservation efforts better, for the long-term survival of this species. The goals of this study are: 1) to examine what environmental parameters are linked to the presence of the species at a landscape scale; 2) to predict where the snakes can be found in Ontario through GIS-based habitat suitability models (HSMs); and 3) to assess the role of biotic interactions in HSMs. Three models with high predictive power were employed: Maxent, Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs), and the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP). Habitat suitability maps were constructed for the eastern hog-nosed snake for its entire Canadian distribution and models were validated with both threshold dependent and independent metrics. Maxent and BRT performed better than GARP and all models predict fewer areas of high suitability when landscape variables are used with current occurrences. Forest density and maximum temperature during the active season were the two variables that contributed the most to models predicting the current distribution of the species. Biotic variables increased the performance of models not by representing a limiting resource, but by representing the inequality of sampling and areas where forest remains. Although habitat suitability models rely on many assumptions, they remain useful in the fields of conservation and landscape management. In addition to help identify critical habitat, HSMs may be used as a tool to better manage land to allow for the survival of species at risk.

Despite an IUCN conservation status of critically endangered, Juliana’s golden mole (Neamblysomus julianae) has received no ecological research attention to date. The species urgently requires conservation attention, but a poor understanding its biology, ecology and distribution makes effective conservation planning almost impossible. In light of this, a thorough understanding of the habitat requirements for this habitat specific species was needed. Additionally, the cryptic lifestyle of Juliana’s golden mole has resulted in very few distribution records for the species. Little was known about the animals’ daily and seasonal activity patterns or movement patterns. This study revealed that Juliana’s golden mole is range restricted on account of sandy soils that have a uniform particle size distribution. This feature limits substrate compaction, making tunnelling far easier for these small mammals. In comparison to uninhabited areas, occupied habitat had greater vegetation cover provided by trees and shrubs, and this would be expected to provide a cooler and moister microenvironment. The ecological parameters associated with the species presence were then used, in addition to existing GIS data, to predict regions of potentially suitable habitat. This process revealed large potentially inhabitable areas in the northern parts of South Africa. Preliminary ground-truthing has shown the model to be relatively accurate with three potentially new populations having been identified. Contrary to what has been reported in the literature, Juliana’s golden mole does not appear to be strictly nocturnal. Instead, an adaptive pattern of activity was observed, governed by soil temperature. Body temperature was found to fluctuate to some degree with that of the soil temperature, but fluctuations were regulated by behavioural thermoregulation. Seasonal activity is highly correlated with rainfall. Rain moistens the soil making it significantly softer and far easier to tunnel through. Using this and other information acquired through the course of the study, the thesis culminates with an evaluation of conservation concerns and proposed conservation management actions. Copyright / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2009. / Zoology and Entomology / unrestricted

The dissertation builds a bridge from the social-philosophical works of Hobbes, Rousseau, and Smith to current game theoretical models explaining social order to two empirical applications in a rural region of Guinea. The work focuses on the central role of natural resources for human societies and uses two empirical studies to test general hypotheses on the drivers of the sustainable exploitation and the equitable distribution of natural resources. The work strictly follows a quantitative empirical approach. After discussing the methodological foundations of statistical causal analysis in a first step, the various approaches are evaluated in a simulation study. Finally, the most successful of these approaches finds its application in the analysis of the empirical data, which was collected during field research in Guinea. In the observational study, socioeconomic data are combined with environmental data to model the influence of humans on the occurrence of wild species that are exploited for economic purposes in the study area. In the experimental study, socioeconomic data is linked to experimental data from a resource distribution game to identify factors affecting the people’s behavior when sharing a common natural resource. Both the exploitation of wild species and the sharing of a natural resource show that the social context is crucial for the understanding of human behavior, as postulated by Hobbes, Rousseau, and Smith: reputation, market integration, inequality and homogeneity of the population, as well as the salience of moral norms and property rights are essential dimensions. / Die Dissertation widmet sich der zentralen Rolle von natürlichen Ressourcen für menschliche Gesellschaften. Anhand zweier empirischer Studien werden allgemeine Hypothesen zu den Determinanten der nachhaltigen Ausbeutung und gerechten Verteilung von natürlichen Ressourcen getestet. Dabei wird in der Arbeit eine Brücke von den Werken der Sozialphilosophen Hobbes, Rousseau und Smith, über aktuelle spieltheoretische Modelle zur Erklärung sozialer Ordnung, hin zu zwei empirischen Anwendungen in einer ländlichen Region Guineas geschlagen. Die Arbeit folgt strikt einem empirischen quantitativen Ansatz. Nach der Erörterung der methodischen Grundlagen der statistischen Kausalanalyse werden die verschiedenen Ansätze im Rahmen einer Simulationsstudie evaluiert. Schließlich findet der erfolgreichste dieser Ansätze in der Auswertung der Daten, die bei der Feldforschung in Guinea erhoben wurden, Anwendung. In der Beobachtungsstudie werden sozioökonomische Daten mit ökologischen Daten verknüpft, um den Einfluss der Menschen auf das Vorkommen von wilden Arten, die zu ökonomischen Zwecken ausgebeutet werden, im Untersuchungsgebiet zu modellieren. In der Experimentalstudie werden sozioökonomische Daten mit Experimentaldaten aus einem Ressourcenverteilungsspiel verknüpft, um Faktoren zu identifizieren, welche sich auf das Verhalten von Menschen beim Teilen einer gemeinsamen natürlichen Ressource auswirken. Sowohl für die Ausbeutung der wilden Arten, wie auch für das gemeinsame Teilen einer natürlichen Ressource gilt, dass der soziale Kontext für das Verhalten der Menschen von großer Relevanz ist, wie von Hobbes, Rousseau und Smith postuliert: Reputation, Marktintegration, Ungleichheit und Homogenität der Bevölkerung sowie die Salienz moralischer Normen und Eigentumsrechte sind entscheidende Dimensionen.

Large-scale land-use change across the tropics has led to the decline of animal populations and their habitat. With large investments into mining, hydropower dams and industrial agriculture this trend is likely to continue. Consequently, there is a need for systematic land-use planning to set aside areas for protection and allocate scarce conservation funding effectively. Even though primates are relatively well studied, data-driven systematic planning is still rarely implemented. The overall aim of this dissertation was to investigate population parameters needed for evidence-based conservation planning for the critically endangered western chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes verus) in West Africa. To this end, I compiled density datasets covering the entire geographic range of this taxon from the IUCN SSC A.P.E.S. database and modeled chimpanzee densities as a function of 20 social-ecological variables. I found that western chimpanzees seemingly persist within three social-ecological configurations: rainforests with a low degree of anthropogenic threats, steep areas that are less likely to be developed and are harder to access by humans, and areas with a high prevalence of cultural taboos against hunting chimpanzees. The third configuration of reduced hunting pressure is not yet reflected in commonly implemented conservation interventions, suggesting a need for designing new approaches aimed at reducing the threat of hunting. Based on the modeled density distribution, I estimated that 52,811 (95% CI 17,577-96,564) western chimpanzees remain in West Africa, and identified areas of high conservation value to which conservation interventions should be targeted. These results can be used to inform the expansion of the protected area network in West Africa, to quantify the impact of planned industrial projects on western chimpanzees, and to guide the systematic allocation of conservation funding. In addition, this thesis highlights the unique position of taxon-specific databases of providing access to high-resolution data at the scale needed for conservation planning. Data-driven conservation planning has the potential to enable conservationists to respond more proactively to current and emerging threats, and ultimately improve conservation outcomes.

No description available.

The genus Psilochalcis, of the Family Chalcididae, was originally described in 1905 by Kieffer. Mainly considered an Old-World taxon, the first North American Psilochalcis were not identified until 1981 by Grissell and Schauff. Little is known about the species distributions, biologies and ecological relationships of these parasitic wasps. This dissertation describes research conducted in central Utah setting arrays of Malaise traps in 4 different habitat types common to the Great Basin at three separate locations. A result of this sampling revealed a high abundance of multiple species of Psilochalcis wasps, particularly from one location and two habitat types. Chapter 1 describes three new species of Psilochalcis wasps namely; P. adenticulata Petersen, P. minuta Petersen, and P. quadratis Petersen. A review of all North American Psilochalcis species explains their distribution in Utah and throughout the surrounding western United States. A taxonomic key for all North American Psilochalcis species is given. Chapter 2 examines the seasonal abundance of P. minuta and P. quadratis and their associations with two common Great Basin habitat types. Both species show their highest abundance from late June through early August. Their peak abundance is shown to change dependent on the environmental conditions of temperature and precipitation. Psilochalcis minuta is significantly associated with pinyon/juniper (Pinus edulis or P. monophylla and Juniperus osteosperma) and P. quadratis is significantly associated with cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum). Chapter 3 describes the building of species distribution models for P. minuta and P. quadratis using a maximum entropy (Maxent) approach. Ten environmental variables were used to predict areas of optimal suitable habitat for each species. Multiple predicted sites were field sampled to test each model's effectiveness. Psilochalcis minuta occurred at nearly 90% of predicted sites, and P. quadratis occurred at 50% of predicted sites. Both species occurred at some non-predicted sites in other habitat types. Model analyses and field-testing results show the P. minuta model to be reliable in predicting areas of probable species occurrence, while the P. quadratis model is much less reliable in doing so. Aspect and fire disturbance show the highest percent contribution to both species' models. Slight differences in variable percent contribution between models suggest these species have sympatric distributions. Soil and slope are more important predictors of optimal suitable habitat for each species. Maintaining integrity between model predictions and field testing gave insights into other factors contributing to probable occurrence of Psilochalcis species.

La mer Méditerranée est un hotspot de biodiversité sous diverses influences où plusieurs perturbations agissent en synergie: réchauffement climatique, perte d'habitats et surpêche menacent la biodiversité marine et perturbent les équilibres écosystémiques. Afin d'assurer une gestion durable des écosystèmes marins côtiers, conformément aux prérogatives de l'Approche Ecosystémique des Pêches, il est nécessaire d'étudier les conséquences de ces perturbations sur les populations exploitées. Or, malgré la multiplicité des études relatives au changement global en Méditerranée, les conséquences écosystémiques de ces changements demeurent mal connues. Dans cette thèse, le Golfe de Gabès a été choisi comme modèle d'étude en raison des nombreuses perturbations qui y sont rencontrées et qui en font l'archétype de tendances plus généralisées en Mer Méditerranée. Cette thèse se propose d'abord de replacer l'écosystème du Golfe de Gabès dans son contexte biogéographique à travers l'étude de la phylobiogéographie des assemblages des poissons côtiers méditerranéens et la modélisation de la structure et du fonctionnement de l'écosystème du Golfe de Gabès. Par la suite, nous proposons de modéliser, en utilisant des modèles de niches écologiques, les modifications potentielles futures des assemblages biogéographiques d'espèces exploitées soumises aux changements climatiques et à la perte d'habitat, ainsi que les conséquences trophiques de ces modifications. En prenant en compte la taxonomie et l'histoire évolutive des espèces, nous avons mis en évidence le niveau de séparation entre les assemblages méditerranéens en proposant une nouvelle délimitation biogéographique du plateau continental. Par ailleurs, l'exploration des dissimilarités phylogénétiques à l'échelle des côtes tunisiennes a mis en évidence quatre zones biogéographiques majeures présentant une faible congruence avec le zonage adopté pour la gestion de la pêche en Tunisie. Les projections des futures aires de répartition des 60 principales espèces exploitées du Golfe de Gabès, grâce à l'implémentation du modèle climatique NEMOMED8, révèlent que pour la fin du siècle, 34 espèces pourraient contracter leurs aires de répartition parmi lesquelles 12 espèces pourraient s'éteindre à l'échelle du Golfe. Par ailleurs, en combinant des scénarios de régression d'herbier et de changement climatique, les projections montrent que les magnitudes des modifications d'aires de répartition induites par le changement climatique sont plus larges que celles résultant de la perte d'habitat. La mise en place d'un modèle trophique Ecopath nous a permis de décrire la structure et le fonctionnement de l'écosystème du Golfe de Gabès et de le comparer avec d'autres écosystèmes méditerranéens exploités. Ce modèle a intégré un large éventail d'espèces depuis le phytoplancton jusqu'aux top-prédateurs ainsi que les principales activités de pêche opérant dans la zone. Les résultats du modèle mettent en évidence que le chalutage benthique est l'activité ayant les conséquences écosystémiques les plus étendues avec un fort impact sur certaines espèces démersales exploitées. Enfin, pour étudier les conséquences trophiques des modifications des distributions spatiales des espèces exploitées, nous avons reconstruit les réseaux trophiques au sein des assemblages d'espèces en nous fondant sur la relation positive liant la taille du prédateur à celle de sa proie. Nous avons ainsi pu prédire les réseaux trophiques actuels et projeter les modifications potentielles de leurs structures. Nous avons constaté qu'une grande partie du Golfe pourrait connaître une augmentation de la connectance et un allongement des voies trophiques moyennes qui s'accompagnent d'une diminution du nombre de proies par prédateur et du nombre de prédateurs par proie. Cette thèse est une ouverture vers la compréhension du rôle de la biodiversité dans le maintien du fonctionnement des écosystèmes. / The Mediterranean Sea is a marine biodiversity hot spot highly affected by several sources of disturbances interacting synergistically: global warming, habitat loss and overfishing threaten marine biodiversity and disrupt the ecosystem balance. To ensure a sustainable management of coastal marine ecosystems according to the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries, it is necessary to study the ecosystem responses to these disturbances. However, despite the variety of global change studies in Mediterranean areas, ecosystems responses to these changes remain poorly understood and particularly at the southern part of the Mediterranean Sea. In this PhD thesis, the Gulf of Gabes was chosen as study area since it is one of the most affected regions by global change which makes it a mesocosm model of more regional patterns that occur in the Mediterranean Sea. In this study, as a first step, we replaced the Gulf of Gabes in its biogeographic and ecosystem regional context. This was achievied through a phylogenetic-based delineation of biogeographical species pools of coastal Mediterranean fishes and using an ecosystem model to describe its structure and functioning in comparison with other Mediterranean ecosystem model properties. We therefore projected potential future geographic ranges and assemblages composition of biogeographical exploited species pool according to global warming and habitat loss scenarios. Then we assessed their effects on food web structure. Taking into account the taxonomy and inter-species evolutionary relationships, we generate a new bioregionalisation of the continental shelf based on the turnover of lineages. Our results showed that climate is the major driver of species distribution and assemblage's composition. In addition, the exploration of phylogenetic dissimilarity across the Tunisian coast highlighted four major biogeographic areas showing a low spatial congruence with zoning used for fisheries management in Tunisia.Projected range shifts of the 60 main exploited species of the Gulf of Gabes through the implementation of a new climate model (NEMOMED8) revealed that, by the end of the century, 34 species could contract their ranges including 12 species that could become locally extinct across the Gulf of Gabes. Furthermore, by combining Posidonia meadows loss scenarios and climate change projections, our results showed that the magnitudes of the changes range induced by climate change are larger than those resulting from the loss of habitat.The Ecopath mass-balance model allowed us to describe the structure and functioning of the ecosystem of the Gulf of Gabes in comparison with other Mediterranean ecosystems. These models encompass the entire trophic spectrum from phytoplankton to higher trophic levels as well as the main fishing activities in the area. The model results showed that, among the fishing activities studied, bottom trawling was identified as the activity having the widest-ranging impacts across the different functional groups and the largest impacts on some commercially-targeted demersal fish species. Finally, to study the effects of species range shift on food web structure, we used a new methodology to infer trophic interactions between species. Based on the robust relationship between the size of prey and predators, we predicted the current food webs and project potential changes in their structures. We found that a significant portion of the Gulf of Gabes would face an increase of connectance and an extension of trophic pathways in parallel with a decrease in the number of prey per predator and the number of predators per prey. This PhD thesis paves the way towards the understanding of the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecosystem functioning.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-07-29T12:05:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_FINALJoao_Nabout.pdf: 1455749 bytes, checksum: 9b7b11f9fe664d7c2e865eff445ff3d0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-11-17 / Macroecology of the genus Uca (Crustacea, Decapoda): Patterns of diversity, distribution and responses to global change. The genus Uca, composed by 97 species, has a worldwide distribution on coastal marine regions, mainly in tropical environments. Many researches have used the genus Uca as a model of study, although the actual scientific knowledge about this group is dispersed. Moreover, few studies have investigated its global and evolutive patterns. In this sense, considering that the genus Uca has no taxonomic problems (there is a consensus about its distribution and species identification), presents wide geographical distribution and has phylogenetic topologies, this group can be used as an excellent model to test macroecological and evolutionary hypotheses, and to discuss the effects of climate change on coastal organisms. The aim of this study was to detect trends and biases in scientific literature about the genus Uca, as well as to assess macroecological patterns (at a global scale) and to evaluate the influence of climate change on the geographical range size and species richness. Moreover, we associated the information generated to improve conservation strategies for species of the genus Uca. Considering our goals, we generated four papers in this thesis. Among the most prominent results, we observed that, the number of papers about the genus Uca indexed in Thomson ISI database, did not increase between 1991 and 2007, which may indicate the lack of interest of the scientific community on this taxonomic group. Moreover, the majority of the scientific production about the genus Uca came from institutions in the USA. The studies about the genus Uca were mainly characterized as population papers (which analyzes population attributes such as density, distribution and ecological interactions). The results of species accumulation curve demonstrated that the total number of Uca species currently know (97 described species) is substantially lower than the number predicted by the asymptote of the Gompertz model (134 species predicted), suggesting that new species need to be described. However, a new species of Uca is not described since 1987. Models were generated to explain the date of species description based on the body size, geographical range size, human influence and the type of habitat of each species. These models were selected using the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). The best model among the candidate ones (explaining 37% of the total variance) was composed by variables representing the geographical range size of species, their body size and the human influence on them. In other words, large-bodied species and those widely distributed, mainly in regions with elevated human influence, were described earlier. In another paper of this thesis, we evaluated the levels of phylogenetic heritability of species of the genus Uca on their geographical range size, shape and position. If a strong phylogenetic signal of geographic range sizes exists between close related species, we can predict the unknown geographic range of species through the known geographic range of its relatives, which is useful for conservation purposes. However, the absence of phylogenetic signal was evidenced for this trait. On the other hand, there was a strong phylogenetic pattern considering the position of the range (mainly along longitudinal axis), probably due to mechanisms of vicariant allopatric speciation and to the geographical structure of the cladogenesis of the group. In the last paper, the impact of global changes on geographic range size of genus Uca were modeled, producing a comprehension about a poleward shift and elaborating maps of species richness based in two scenarios of global change. The models generated presented good performance, and predictions are that the species will probably have reduced the geographical range size and some species will be extinct (considering two scenarios until 2050), mainly in the tropical regions. Moreover, the range of species with midpoints in both hemispheres changed towards to poles in the future scenarios of climatic changes. Finally, the results of this set of papers highlighted the urgency of detailed studies for some species of Uca, and in some coastal marine regions (e.g. Indo-West Pacific) to evaluate the actual status of the distribution of species of the genus Uca and the real species richness of this genus. This is essential to generate local strategies aiming to minimize impacts of global change on coastal organism / O gênero Uca é composto atualmente por 97 espécies, distribuídas mundialmente, ocupando ambientes costeiros marinhos, principalmente da região tropical. Diversos campos de pesquisa têm desenvolvidos trabalhos usando o gênero Uca como modelo, entretanto, atualmente o conhecimento científico sobre esse grupo apresenta-se disperso, além disso, estudos sobre padrões globais e evolutivos ainda são incipientes. Dessa forma, considerando que o gênero Uca é taxonomicamente resolvidos (i.e., consenso na distribuição e identificação das espécies), apresenta ampla distribuição geográfica e existem topologias filogenéticas, estes tornam-se excelentes modelos para testar hipóteses macroecólogicas, evolutivas e discutir efeitos de mudanças climáticas sobre organismos costeiros. O objetivo geral desse trabalho foi avaliar tendências e detectar vieses da literatura científica global de caranguejos do gênero Uca, bem como investigar padrões macroecológicos em escala global e a influência das mudanças climáticas na distribuição geográfica e riqueza de espécies desse grupo de caranguejo, além disso, associar as informações geradas para avançar em estratégias de conservação para essas espécies. Dessa forma, considerando o objetivo geral desse trabalho, foram gerados quatro artigos apresentados nessa tese. Dentre os resultados mais importantes, observamos que o número de artigos sobre Uca indexados na base Thomson ISI não aumentou ao longo dos anos (1991 até 2007), o que pode indicar que não houve aumento de interesse da comunidade científica com esse grupo de organismo, além disso, a maior parte da produção científica sobre Uca foi desenvolvidas por instituições dos Estados Unidos. Os estudos sobre Uca foram principalmente caracterizados como artigos de cunho populacional (i.e. analisaram atributos como densidade, distribuição e interações ecológicas). Apesar de um longo tempo não serem descritas novas espécies de Uca (última espécie foi descrita em 1987), os resultados da curva de acumulação de espécies demonstraram que o número total de espécies de Uca atualmente descrito é menor do que o número de espécies predito pela assíntota do modelo de Gompertz (preditos 134 espécies), sugerindo que existem novas espécies de Uca para serem descritas. Além disso, foram gerados modelos para explicar a data de descrição de espécies, baseado no tamanho da carapaça, tamanho da área de distribuição geográfica, influência humana nos locais de ocorrência das espécies e o tipo de habitat da espécie. Esses modelos foram confrontados e selecionados de acordo com o Critério de Informação de Akaike (AIC). O melhor modelo foi composto pelo tamanho da distribuição geográfica, tamanho do corpo e influência humana, explicando 37% da variação total dos dados, dessa forma, as espécies descritas primeiramente apresentaram maior tamanho corpóreo, maiores áreas de distribuição geográfica e ocorrem em regiões de elevada influência humana. Em outro artigo desenvolvido nessa tese, foi avaliado os níveis de herdabilidade filogenética do tamanho, forma e posição da distribuição geográfica de espécies de Uca. A existência do sinal filogenético para o tamanho da distribuição geográfica pode auxiliar em estratégias para conservação, pois é possível prever o tamanho da distribuição geográfica de uma espécie caso se conheça o tamanho da distribuição de uma espécie filogeneticamente próxima. Entretanto, para as espécies de Uca, foi observado ausência de sinal filogenético para esse caráter. Somente a posição da distribuição geográfica (ao longo do eixo longitudinal) apresentou um forte padrão filogenético, possivelmente devido ao processo de especiação alopátrica vicariante e a estrutura geográfica dos clados. Para o último artigo, foram modelados os impactos das mudanças climáticas globais sobre a distribuição geográfica das espécies de Uca, gerando uma compreensão do deslocamento das espécies em direção aos pólos e ainda produzindo um mapa de riqueza de espécies com base em cenário otimistas e pessimistas de mudanças climáticas globais. Os modelos gerados apresentaram bom desempenho, e grande parte das espécies de Uca apresentarão diminuição da distribuição geográfica acarretando perda de espécies (para cenários projetados para 2050), principalmente nas regiões tropicais, ainda assim, as espécies com pontos médios de ocorrência em ambos os hemisfério, tenderão a direcionar-se para os pólos nos cenários futuros de mudanças climáticas. Por fim, os resultados desse conjunto de artigos evidenciam a urgência de estudos ambientais para diversas espécies de Uca e de regiões costeiras (e.g. Indo-Oeste Pacífico) a fim de gerar um painel atualizado da distribuição e riqueza de espécies de Uca, que permitirão gerar estratégias locais para minimizar impactos das mudanças climáticas

Les modèles de distribution d’espèces ont été identifiées comme pertinents pour cartographier et caractériser la qualitéd’habitat des moustiques vecteurs du paludisme, Anopheles, afin de participer à l’estimation du risque de transmission decette maladie et à la définition de stratégies de lutte anti-vectorielle ciblées. La transmission du paludisme dépend de laprésence et de la distribution des vecteurs, qui dépendent elles-mêmes des conditions environnementales définissant laqualité des habitats écologiques des Anopheles. Cependant, dans certaines régions, les données de captures d’Anophelessont rares, et rend difficile la cartographie de leurs habitats. De plus, le recueil de ces données est très souvent soumis à desbiais d’échantillonnage.Cette thèse fournit une solution à la cartographie des vecteurs du paludisme, en considérant deux aspects très peu étudiésdans la modélisation : le faible nombre de sites de présence disponibles et l’existence d’un biais d’échantillonnage. Uneméthode originale de correction de l’effet du biais d’échantillonnage est proposée puis appliquée à des données de présencedu principal vecteur du paludisme en Guyane, Anopheles darlingi. Un modèle de distribution d’An. darlingi a ensuite étéconstruit, permettant d’obtenir une carte de qualité d’habitat en cohérence avec la connaissance des entomologistes etfournissant des performances de prédiction élevées. La méthode de correction proposée a ensuite été comparée auxméthodes existantes dans un contexte applicatif caractérisé par la rareté des données d’occurrence de l’espèce et laprésence d’un biais d’échantillonnage. Les résultats montrent que la méthode développée est adaptée aux cas où le nombrede sites de présence est faible. Cette thèse contribue, d’une part, à combler les lacunes théoriques et d’applicabilité desméthodes actuelles visant à corriger l’effet des biais d’échantillonnage et, d’autre part, à compléter la connaissance sur ladistribution spatiale et la bioécologie du principal vecteur du paludisme en Guyane française. / Species distribution models are identified as relevant to map and characterize the habitat quality of Anopheles genusmosquitoes, transmitting malaria, and thus to both participate in the estimation of the transmission risk of this disease and inthe definition of targeted vector control actions. The malaria transmission depends on the presence and distribution of thevectors, which are themselves dependent on the environmental conditions that define the quality of the ecological habitats of the Anopheles. However, in some areas, Anopheles collection data remain scarce, making it difficult to model these habitats. In addition, the collection of these data is very often subjected to significant sampling biases, due, in particular, to unequal accessibility to the entire study area. This thesis provides a solution to the mapping of malaria vectors, considering two very few studied aspects in modeling: the low number of available presence sites and the existence of a sampling bias. An original method for correcting the effect of the sampling bias is proposed and then applied to presence data of Anopheles darlingi species - the main vector of malaria in South America - in French Guiana. Then, a distribution model of An. darlingi was built to obtain a map of habitat quality consistent with entomologists’ knowledge and providing high prediction performances. The proposed correction method was then compared to existing methods in an application context characterized by the scarcity of the species occurence data and the presence of a sampling bias. The results show that the developed method is adapted to cases where the number of sites of presence is low. This thesis contributes, on the one hand, to fill theoretical and applicability lacuna of current methods intended to correct the effect of the sampling bias and, on the other hand, to supplement the knowledge on both the spatial distribution and the bio-ecology of the main malaria vector in French Guiana.