Background. Space mining is a subject of growing interest. People see where society is heading and that something needs to be done to pave the way for future generations. Outer space contains both the Moon and other celestial bodies as well. these contain precious materials which could be used on Earth. Although all these precious materials exist out there it will take much will and money to get there. This means that in order for people to invest they need to understand how it could benefit them and others. This will not only be through a higher supply of materials but also with the possibility to generate spinoff technologies that can be applied to other industries on Earth. Companies' stock prices should be adjusted when news about them is published, henceforth it can be more understood where space mining is in its development. Most of the previous research focuses have been on how space resources should be divided, likewise how it could be done on a more technical level.    Objectives. The objective of this paper is to understand how and if space mining-related news affects the stock prices of space-related stocks in any significant way. Methods. As a method to understand the market reaction to these kinds of news, a quantitative statistical event study has been used. Upon this, a multiple linear regression model has been applied to gain more understanding of the variance of the abnormal returns. The analysis was performed on 100 space mining-related news articles, news which directly was considered to benefit space mining.  Results. From the first regression, the abnormal return seemed to not be significantly affected on the event day of most of the events. Furthermore, when analyzing it more with the multiple regression, it could be seen that no independent variable could explain the abnormal return in a significant way.  Conclusions. Based on the result the market reactions from space mining-related news are not significantly big enough to affect the abnormal returns. The general fluctuation of abnormal returns on event days seems to be random since no variable has been found to explain its variance.

The option expiration effect is a well-studied phenome, however, few studies have implemented machine learning models to predict the effect on the underlying stock market due to options expiration. In this paper four machine learning models, SVM, random forest, AdaBoost, and LSTM, are evaluated on their ability to predict whether the underlying index rises or not on the day of option expiration. The options expiration effect is mainly driven by portfolio rebalancing made by market makers who aim to maintain delta-neutral portfolios. Whether or not market makers need to rebalance their portfolios depend on at least two variables; gamma and open interest. Hence, the machine learning models in this study use gamma exposure (i.e. a combination of gamma and open interest) to predict the options expiration effect. Furthermore, four architectures of LSTM are implemented and evaluated. The study shows that a three-layered many-to-one LSTM model achieves superior results with an F1 score of 62%. However, none of the models achieved better predictions than a model that predicts only positive classes. Some of the problems regarding gamma exposure are discussed and possible improvements for future studies are given. / Flera studier har visat att optionsmarknaden påverkar aktiemarknaden, speciellt vid optioners utgångsdatum. Dock har få studier undersökt maskininlärningsmodellers förmåga att förutse denna effekt. I den här studien, implementeras och utvärderas fyra olika maskininlärningsmodeller, SVM, random forest, AdaBoost, och LSTM, med syftet att förutse om den underliggande aktiemarknaden stiger vid optioners utgångsdatum. Att optionsmarknaden påverkar aktiemarknaden vid optioners utgångsdatum beror på att market makers ombalanserar sina portföljer för att bibehålla en delta-neutral portfölj. Market makers behov av att ombalansera sina portföljer beror på åtminstone två variabler; gamma och antalet aktiva optionskontrakt. Därmed använder maskininlärningsmodellerna i denna studie GEX, som är en kombination av gamma och antalet aktiva optionskontrakt, med syftet att förutse om marknaden stiger vid optioners utgångsdatum. Vidare implementeras och utvärderas fyra olika varianter av LSTM modeller. Studien visar att en many-to-one LSTM modell med tre lager uppnådde bäst resultat med ett F1 score på 62%. Dock uppnådde ingen av modellerna bättre resultat än en modell som predicerar endast positiva klasser. Avslutningsvis diskuteras problematiken med att använda GEX och rekommendationer för framtida studier ges.

The common theme throughout the thesis is to explore the possibility of using a single framework, namely the systems theory framework, in modeling a few stylized features of a financial market. A systems theoretic model is developed, in this thesis in Chapter 3, for confidence bias of an individual. The effect of this bias on his investment decision is brought out explicitly. The phenomenon of excessive trading, arising due to overconfidence and optimism, has been explained. The concept of virtual capital, incorporating the ideas from prospect theory, is introduced. We have proposed a dynamical system framework to model limits to arbitrage and the herding behavior in financial markets in Chapter 4. The market evolves due to the participation of traders. It is instructive to look at the market as a system evolving from a set of initial conditions during every time interval. In the proposed model, herding is defined as a specific relation between the system responses. The proposed herding measure quantifies how far the individual is from clustering with others. It is also shown how this interpretation helps us to understand the effects of herding. There exists a risk when the market price variation, due to herding, is thought of as entirely due to the portfolio fundamentals. The generic dynamical system model that captures some aspects of the limits of arbitrage is also proposed wherein fundamental risk, noise trader risk, implementation risk, and model risk can be incorporated. The proposed model offers a single framework to study the Marginally Efficient Market and Synchronization Risk models. In Chapter 5, we have proposed a switching dynamical system with minority game rules incorporated within the framework. We have explored the possibility of developing a market model, in Chapter 6, in the same framework that has been used to develop models for arbitrage and herding. We have explored, in this thesis, the possibility of using a single framework to model stylized features of stock market. It will be a long way before a single model can capture all complex characteristic features of a stock market. We have attempted, in this thesis, to capture a few stylized features in a single framework, if not in a single model. Different models proposed for individual confidence bias, limits to arbitrage, herding, and switching model for incorporating minority games are all set up in system dynamics framework. This leads to a stage where one can explore incorporating other features, not addressed in this thesis, in system dynamics framework. If each feature is captured using a different framework like confidence bias as stochastic system, herding as pattern cluster, limits to arbitrage as rule-based agents, etc., it would be difficult to integrate them into a single framework. But, in the present work, we have captured the chosen stylized features using system dynamics framework though individual models differ from each other substantially. The challenges are many in creating a single framework. The vision of such framework may involve different components such as modeling decision making, considering risk profiles, devising investment strategies, etc. Stylized features would come as emergent properties of complex interactions among the components of the system. Emergence refers to the way in which multiplicity of simple interactions lead to complex behavior. Emergence of such features may include different time scales of causal relationships among components. System may have thresholds, determined by diversity of traders and nature of interactions, which is vital for features to become emergent. This can be seen in practice. Stock market regulates the relative prices of companies across the world. There is no single central agency to control the workings of the market. Traders have knowledge of only few companies within their portfolio, and to follow transaction rules. Trends and patterns are still emerging which are studied by technical analysts. Emergent properties are mostly signature of self-organizing complex system. Self-organization in complex system relies on four properties which are fundamental in system dynamics framework: positive feedback, negative feedback, multiple interactions, and balance among strategies. A complex adaptive stock market system which is self-organizing and exhibit stylized features as emergent property is a distant goal of system theorists around the world. The challenge does not end there. We have attempted to model and study the stylized features of a stock market in systems theory framework. The focus of our approach is to use the dynamical system modeling to study the features. We have not considered the investment aspects in a financial market. The investment models are very important in real life for individuals and policy-makers. Future extension of the ideas explored in this thesis could be along the lines of creating investment models for individuals and policy-makers. Creating such models using complex adaptive stock market system goes a long way in understanding a phenomenon that had started by Dutch East India Company issuing shares on Amsterdam Stock Exchange way back in 1602.

Thesis (MComm (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The study addresses foreign investment in China’s fund–management industry, with a detailed analysis of the opportunities and challenges that foreign investors may face. With the entry of China into the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001, foreign investors have been allowed to hold up to 33% of a joint fund-management firm, which has increased to 49% from the end of 2004. As a trendy investment tool, investment funds, and particularly mutual funds, have expanded significantly especially as regards market size and economic importance in developed economies. This study starts with an introduction to the investment fund, which includes types of investment funds and the advantages of mutual funds. Then, the history of China’s fund-management industry is described to give a brief picture of this nascent industry. In order to justify the promising future for foreign investment in China’s fund-management industry, the study first analyses the sustainability of China’s economic growth, which is driven by some favourable aspects such as the gradual development of an economic structure, continued FDI inflow and WTO membership. Another two specific factors that may be favourable for the fund-management industry in this regard, namely pension fund reform and increased income, are also discussed. Foreign investors in China’s fund-management industry are also exposed to some challenges. For investment funds, the main platform is the financial markets, which means that the development of the fund-management industry is tied closely to the development of the financial markets. In the case of China, the financial markets are still developing and have not grown into efficient capital allocation mechanisms due to the restricted involvement of foreign participants and substantial government intervention. However, this study only focuses on major opportunities and challenges associated with foreign investment in China’s fund-management industry. A detailed analysis of each of various relevant aspects can be conducted in a future study, as well as a pertinent survey.

Esta dissertação apresenta uma proposta de modelo de mercado financeiro artificial que reproduz séries de retornos com propriedades estatísticas universais semelhantes às observadas em séries reais. Dentre as propriedades, também chamadas de fatos estilizados na Economia, as séries artificiais de retornos exibiram ausência de autocorrelação para os retornos simples, leis de potência para autocorrelação para os retornos absolutos e quadráticos, excesso de curtose nas distribuições de retorno, gaussianidade agregacional e volatilidade clusterizada. Cabe salientar, que não há na literatura um outro mercado artificial que reproduziu tantos fatos estilizados conjuntamente. O modelo dinâmico e síncrono é baseado em agentes que transacionam ativos com risco como ações de empresa através de ordens de compra e venda enviadas ao mercado a cada período de tempo. O preço de mercado das ações é calculado da média ponderada pelo volume das ordens negociadas entre os agentes. O objetivo dos agentes é maximizar sua riqueza e, para isso, seguem ou a estratégia fundamentalista utilizando os dividendos para calcular os preços das ações ou a estratégia técnica baseada em análise de séries temporais. A principal contribuição da modelagem foi acrescentar às estratégias um fator de aprendizado em que o agente considera sua habilidade individual passada de previsão de riqueza esperada para calcular os retornos futuros. Este trabalho também mediu o coeficiente de Gini para descobrir como algumas variáveis de mercado afetavam a distribuição de riqueza dos agentes e, além disso, estudou quais valores de dividendo tornavam uma estratégia mais eficiente que outra. Por fim, incorporaram-se características evolutivas aos agentes possibilitandoos a trocar de estratégias no decorrer da simulação e, com isso, os resultados mostraram aumento da riqueza dos agentes. / This work presents a new artificial stock market model for reproducing price time series of assets in such market model. For a suitable validation of the model, we verified several statistical and universal properties (called stylized facts in the Economics Literature) and similar results are obtained with data extracted from real stock markets. We investigate several properties including absence of autocorrelation for simple returns and the power behavior law of autocorrelation for absolute and quadratic returns, excess of kurtosis, aggregational gaussianity, and clustered volatility. It is important to mention that no other similar artificial model has investigated so many statistical universalities. Our synchronous model is based on agents negotiating risk assets through purchase and sale orders. These orders are stored in books for each simulation step. The weighted average volume of all orders negotiated by the agents determines the price of an asset. For the sake of simplicity, our model considers two kinds of strategies: 1. Fundamentalist - where one uses the dividends to calculate the expected return of an asset; 2. Trend predictor - where one obtains the expected returns directly from an analysis of the price time series. One of the main contributions of our model was to add a term that works as the expected wealth of an agent. This is considered an important psychological factor in the decision making process. In addition, we consider an income inequality index to analyze the wealth distribution of the agents: the Gini-coefficient, which predicts an inequality interval of [0 (society completely fair),1 (society completely unfair)]. We also study the influence of the dividends and risk free assets parameters on this coefficient. Finally, some evolutionary features of the model are analyzed. Our results show an increase in agent’s wealth when strategies are updated according to the following criteria: if expected wealth does not reach a given threshold, the agent changes his strategy from Fundamentalist to Trend Predictor or vice-versa. If the expected wealth reaches the specified threshold, the agent keeps his initial strategy. We tested different threshold values in this analysis and the conclusion was confirmed in all cases studied.

No description available.

[pt] As últimas décadas têm se caracterizado pela intervenção estatal na economia mediante a atuação de diversas entidades administrativas reguladoras. A presente dissertação tem por objetivo analisar a estrutura legal da Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) e os principais instrumentos usados para a regulação do mercado de capitais brasileiro. Seguindo o modelo regulatório norte- americano, a CVM possui desenho institucional de entidade reguladora independente. A regulação que ela estabelece segue os princípios da política de disclosure. Para cumprir o seu papel, a CVM se vale de instrumentos regulatórios de natureza normativa, executiva e judicante. O estudo sugere que a credibilidade e a eficiência do mercado de capitais brasileiro dependem, em grande medida, da capacidade da CVM de conduzir a regulação do mercado. / [en] The last decades have been characterized by state intervention in the economy through the activities of various regulatory administrative entities. This dissertation aims to analyze the legal structure of Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) and the main instruments used to regulate Brazilian capital market. Following the North-American regulatory model, CVM is established as an independent regulatory entity. The regulation that it enacts follows the principles of disclosure policy. To fulfill its mission, CVM makes use of legislative, executive and adjudicatory regulatory instruments. This study suggests that credibility and efficiency of Brazilian capital market depend, largely, on the ability of CVM to conduct market regulation.

<p>I denna magisteruppsats undersöks eventuella långsiktiga samband mellan den svenska aktiemarknaden och aktiemarknaderna i Tyskland, Storbritannien, USA och Japan. Detta sker genom en kointegrationsanalys med Engle-Grangers metod. Undersökningen omfattar åren 1992-2010 och resultaten visar inga tecken på att det skulle existera några långsiktiga samband mellan den svenska aktiemarknaden och någon av de utländska aktiemarknaderna. Resultaten ger därmed indikationer om att den svenska aktiemarknaden tillsammans med de utländska aktiemarknaderna i undersökningen är kollektivt effektiva i åtminstone den svaga formen enligt Fama (1970). Då inga långsiktiga samband existerar bör även portföljdiversifiering mellan den svenska aktiemarknaden och de utländska aktiemarknaderna i undersökningen fungera effektivt på lång sikt.</p> / <p>In this master thesis the Engle-Granger method for cointegration analysis is used to examine long-term relationships between stock markets. The analysis is applied on Swedish stock market together with the stock markets in Germany, United Kingdom, United States and Japan. The result shows no significant signs of any form of long-term relationships between the Swedish and the foreign stock markets for the time period 1992 to 2010. The result therefore indicates that the Swedish stock market together with the foreign stock markets in the study is collectively efficient in at least the weak form according to Fama (1970). The result also indicates that portfolio diversification through investing in the Swedish stock market together with any of the foreign stock markets should be effective in the long run.</p>

I denna magisteruppsats undersöks eventuella långsiktiga samband mellan den svenska aktiemarknaden och aktiemarknaderna i Tyskland, Storbritannien, USA och Japan. Detta sker genom en kointegrationsanalys med Engle-Grangers metod. Undersökningen omfattar åren 1992-2010 och resultaten visar inga tecken på att det skulle existera några långsiktiga samband mellan den svenska aktiemarknaden och någon av de utländska aktiemarknaderna. Resultaten ger därmed indikationer om att den svenska aktiemarknaden tillsammans med de utländska aktiemarknaderna i undersökningen är kollektivt effektiva i åtminstone den svaga formen enligt Fama (1970). Då inga långsiktiga samband existerar bör även portföljdiversifiering mellan den svenska aktiemarknaden och de utländska aktiemarknaderna i undersökningen fungera effektivt på lång sikt. / In this master thesis the Engle-Granger method for cointegration analysis is used to examine long-term relationships between stock markets. The analysis is applied on Swedish stock market together with the stock markets in Germany, United Kingdom, United States and Japan. The result shows no significant signs of any form of long-term relationships between the Swedish and the foreign stock markets for the time period 1992 to 2010. The result therefore indicates that the Swedish stock market together with the foreign stock markets in the study is collectively efficient in at least the weak form according to Fama (1970). The result also indicates that portfolio diversification through investing in the Swedish stock market together with any of the foreign stock markets should be effective in the long run.

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the location of buying stocks in a Nordic cross-listed company matters in terms of 1) earning abnormal returns, or 2) gaining in optimizing the amount spent by buying the specific stock cheap. Nowadays, markets are becoming more integrated and if we believe in the efficient market hypothesis, prices of the same class of stocks paying the same dividend annually, of an MNC must be the same irrespective of the stock exchange it is listed upon. Though efficient market hypothesis exists in theory, market imperfection is a reality. All the Nordic (Swedish, Finnish, Norwegian, Danish and Icelandic) firms listed on foreign stock exchanges in addition to their home market have been included in the sample. In fact, this sample represents 100% of the population. The daily prices of cross-listed stocks have been analyzed and conclusions have been drawn based on the mean returns and mean prices along with Wilcoxon Signed-Rank test statistics. The data have been analyzed over the last ten years capturing the recent economic cycle. The whole period has also been divided into three sub-periods to establish comparisons with the whole period. This paper reports that even though returns on cross-listed stocks are statistically same over all periods, prices of the stocks vary according to the location of listing. That is, investors can buy from a stock exchange where the specific stock is underpriced thereby decreasing the amount invested in absolute term and optimizing the amount spent if not the return. The returns and prices have analyzed using the local currency of the MNC’s country of origin and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). No considerable differences on the returns or pattern of price movements have been observed while using two currencies.