<p><b>Background</b>: Oil is the most dominating source of energy of today, it constitutes for more than 40 per cent of the worlds total energy consumption. This together with the fact that stock in oil companies has soared on the stock exchanges around the world makes oil a very interesting topic to write within. In order to gain knowledge in how to value oil companies, the authors will collect information from theory and through a questionnaire. By applying the information gathered to three companies listed on the Stockholm Stock Exchange the authors will reach an objective picture of valuation of oil companies.</p><p><b>Purpose</b>: To investigate how shares of stock are valuated in the oil exploring and producing industry, and what specific measures and metrics that are used in the valuation of stocks in Exploring and Producing (E&P) companies.</p><p><b>Method</b>: By using a qualitative approach for this thesis, the authors will investigate how the valuation of oil companies works and what measures that should be applied. The authors will use a part descriptive and part explorative study. This will fit the thesis as the authors will describe how the measures and metrics work and start from previous research on the topic and go from there to show if that theory and the empirical findings really works.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b>: The most recommended valuation method is net present value analysis. Hotelling Valuation Principle is a form of present value analysis for oil companies and is less complicated than a regular net present value analysis. Other than present value analysis, relative measures and ratios are used. Specific for the oil industry and exploring and producing companies are EV/DACF, ROACE, R/P, production cost, unit cost, tax rate and reserve replacement rate.</p> / <p><b>Bakgrund</b>: Olja är den dominerande källan till energi idag och oljan står för mer än 40 procent av den totala energikonsumtionen i världen. Detta tillsammans med det faktum att aktier i oljeföretag har stigit kraftigt på börser runt om i världen gör olja till ett väldigt intressant ämne att skriva om. För att skaffa kunskap i hur man värderar oljeföretag kommer författarna av denna uppsats samla information från teori på ämnet och genom ett frågeformulär. Genom att applicera insamlad information på tre företag noterade på Stockholmsbörsen hoppas författarna att kunna nå en objektiv bild av hur man värderar oljeföretag.</p><p><b>Syfte</b>: Att undersöka hur aktier värderas i oljeindustrin och vilka specifika nyckeltal och metoder som används vid värderingen av aktier i prospekterings- och produktionsbolag.</p><p><b>Metod</b>: Genom att använda en kvalitativt tillvägagångssätt för uppsatsen hoppas författarna kunna undersöka hur värdering av oljeföretag fungerar och vilka nyckeltal och metoder som ska användas. Författarna kommer att att i huvudsak använda sig av en deskriptiv studie. Detta anses lägligt för uppsatsen eftersom författarna kommer att beskriva hur nyckeltal och formler fungerar samtidigt som de kommer att utgå från tidigare forskning inom ämnet och därifrån visa på om teorin och de inkomna svaren verkligen fungerar.</p><p><b>Slutsats</b>: Den mest rekommenderade värderingsmetoden är nuvärdesanalys. Hotelling Valuation Principle är form av nuvärdesanalys som riktar sig till oljeföretag och är lite mindre komplicerad än vanlig nuvärdesanalys. Förutom nuvärdesanalys används även relativa mått och nyckeltal. De specifika mått som används inom oljeindustrin och prospekterings- och produktionsbolag är EV/DACF, ROACE, R/P, produktionskostnad, kostnad per styck, skattesats, och återfyllnad av reserver.</p>

We examine to what extent Europe´s stock markets are integrated, and how this can be measured. We review 54 empirical studies and find an overemphasis on price-based measures and a need for more quantity-based studies. We update the Baele et al (2004) study on investment funds' equity holdings to March 2006 for ten euro area and four non-euro area countries, provide additional quantity based evidence, and discuss integration theories. Our results indicate a decline in home bias particularly after the advent of the euro. We conclude that although European stock markets have undergone significant developments, the level of European integration is below expectations and there is a high joint integration with the U.S. (author's abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

總統選舉對法國和台灣股票市場的影響 / The relationship between politics, especially presidential elections, and stock markets has been a topic widely covered in the United States. We propose in this research to focus on France and Taiwan, two free countries regarding the civil rights and politic liberties, with a direct presidential election system. We will put them in perspective and analyse if similarities and differences can be identified, regarding the presidential market cycles and the presence of abnormal returns around presidential elections, in comparison of the US. Regarding the presidential market cycle analysis, a very close, but not significant pattern has been found for both French indices compared to the US. The TAIEX in Taiwan shows a very different pattern as Yearly Average Return are alternatively positive and negative, suggesting two cycles in a presidential term. This observation is not applicable for big and mid-caps indices in Taiwan. In addition, not any significant differences have been found between the YAR of big and mid-caps indices for the two countries respectively. Analysing the abnormal returns, significant positive CAARs are found for Taiwan big and mid-caps. For the big-caps index, this result is found for the (-28, 28) period while for the mid-caps, the associated period is (-28,-15) days before the election. The loss of the incumbent shows significant strong negative CAAR for the 1-month period prior and after the elections. The win of this one shows significant positive CAAR for the period associated to the 15 first days of the presidential campaign. The win of the party in power shows the same results, only when we consider big-caps indices.

We use a production function approach in investigating the relationship between financial development and economic growth in 9 EU accession - mostly transition countries. These findings are compared with the results for the group of 18 developed countries, and separately, with the results for a group of less developed EU countries - structural fund recipients. We use aggregate measures of financial development as well as measures for single segments of financial sectors. In context of transition countries, bond markets are, to our knowledge, taken explicitly into account for the first time. We find that domestic credit and bond markets together with real capital stock growth stimulate economic growth in transition. With progress in cohesion, educational attainment becomes the next important factor that contributes to economic growth followed by labor participation in mature market economies. For the developed countries, financial sector did not play any positive role for growth over the period under study. We conclude that transfer mechanisms for growth differ over the development cycle. This is important to growth theory, to the sequencing of economic reforms and to financial sector development priorities. (author's abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

The objective of the study is to analyze the effects of two breakpoints on the relationships of Istanbul Stock Exchange with the European stock markets and on the relationships among these European stock markets to increase the economic integration. The breakpoints are the execution of the Customs Union Agreement of Turkey with the European Union in 1/1/1996 and the introduction of the Euro in 1/1/1999. While both breakpoints have effects on Turkey&rsquo / s economic relations, the European Union countries are expected to be influenced by only the introduction of the Euro. Stock market indices provided by DataStream is utilized. The statistical techniques used include the correlation and cointegration analysis. Results indicate that when examined on pair wise basis Turkish stock market has more liaisons with the European stock markets, in general, after the Customs Union / but less liaisons after the conversion to Euro. However, when examined as a group, the cointegration result finds the Euro as influential as the Customs Union. Alternatively, the European stock markets have decreasing integrations as a result of correlation analysis after the Euro, but it is an influential breakpoint according to cointegrating structures.

Säg "företag" och man tänker på någon som tillverkar och säljer varor eller tjänster.Den här boken befattar sig inte med det. Avhandlingen tar istället sikte på företaget som investeringsobjekt. Den undersöker hur investerare och aktieanalytiker tillsammans skapar objektet. Och den visar hur synen på företaget som just ett investeringsobjekt griper allt vidare omkring sig. Hur bär sig placerarna och analytikerna åt när de konstruerar "sitt" investeringsobjekt?Det är precis vad studien söker blottlägga. Ett ramverk konstrueras som hjälper oss att se och förstå hur aktörerna bygger sin analys. Vi ser att den bygger på förutsägelser, information, och kommunikation mellan placerare och analytiker. Vi ser vad som krävs för att investeringsobjektet ska bli verklighet. Företaget som investeringsobjekt tar sin teoretiska utgångspunkt i gränslandet mellan organisationspsykologi, vetenskapssociologi och företagsekonomi. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk., 2001

The thesis offers a framework for trading algorithm optimization and tests statistical and economical significance of its performance on American, Swedish and Russian futures markets. The results provide strong support for proposed method, as using the presented ideas one can build an intraday trading algorithm that outperforms the market in long term.

[pt] O Equity Premium Puzzle tem sido muito estudado no mundo desde 1985, ano da publicação do trabalho de Mehra e Prescott. O intuito desta dissertação foi fazer uma análise e avaliação do Equity Premium Puzzle utilizando diferentes contextos vividos na economia brasileira no período de 1990 até 2005. O modelo utilizado foi o do agente representativo com utilidade separável no tempo desenvolvido por Mehra e Prescott (1985). A fim de realizar comparações de resultados foi utilizado também o modelo revisado por Mehra (2003) e um modelo com utilidade tipo Kreps - Porteus com processo de dotação seguindo a cadeia de Markov. / [en] The Equity Premium Puzzle has been very studied in the world since 1985, year of the publication of the work of Mehra and Prescott. The intention of this dissertation was to make an analysis and valuation of the Equity Premium Puzzle being used different contexts lived in the Brazilian economy in the period of 1990 up to 2005. It was used the representative agent model with separable utility in the time developed for Mehra and the Prescott (1985). In order to carry through comparisons of results was used also the model revised for Mehra (2003) and a model with utility type Kreps - Porteus with endowment process having followed the Markov´s chain.

A previsão de séries temporais financeiras tem sido um tópico popular da literatura nos últimos anos. Contudo, embora muitos estudos de previsão de séries temporais foquem na previsão exata de valores futuros, defendemos que este tipo de previsão é de difícil aplicação em cenários reais, sendo mais vantajoso transformar este problema de previsão em um problema de classificação que indique se a série temporal irá subir ou descer no próximo período. Neste trabalho é proposto um método de compra e venda de ações baseado nas previsões feitas por dois ensembles de redes neurais adaptados para diferentes perfis de investimento: um para investidores moderados e outro para investidores mais agressivos. Os resultados desses ensembles preveem se determinada ação irá subir ou descer no próximo período ao invés de prever seus valores futuros, permitindo que se criem recomendações de operações de compra ou venda para o próximo período de tempo. A criação de tais ensembles, contudo, pode encontrar dificuldades no fato de que cada mercado se comporta de uma maneira diferente: fatores como a sazonalidade e a localidade da bolsa de valores são determinantes no desenvolvimento das redes neurais apropriadas. Para mostrar a eficiência do nosso método em diferentes situações, o mesmo é avaliado exaustivamente em dois conjuntos de dados diferentes: os mercados de ações norteamericano (S&P 500) e brasileiro (Bovespa). Operações reais foram simuladas nestes mercados e fomos capazes de lucrar em 89% dos casos avaliados, superando os resultados das abordagens comparativas na grande maioria dos casos. / Financial time series prediction has been a hot topic in the last years. However, although many time series prediction studies focus on the exact prediction for future values, we defend that this kind of prediction is hard to apply in real scenarios, being more profitable to transform the prediction problem into a classification problem that indicates if the time series is going to raise or fall in the next period. In this work we propose a stock buy and sell method based on predictions made by two neural network ensembles adjusted for different investment profiles: one for moderate investors and another for aggressive investors. The results of these ensembles predict if certain stock will raise of fall in the next time period instead of predicting its future values, allowing the creation of buy and sell operations recommendations for the next time period. The creation of such ensembles, however, can find difficulties in the fact that each market behaves in a different manner: factors as the seasonality and the location of the stock market are determinant in the development of the appropriate neural networks. To show the efficiency of our method in different situations, it is tested exhaustively in two differents datasets: the north american (S&P 500) and brazilian (Bovespa) stock markets. Real operations were simulated in these markets and we were able to profit in 89% of the tested cases, outperforming the results of the comparative approaches in most of the cases.

This thesis analyses financial contagion between a reference EU market - Germany and markets of five countries which are actively seeking to become a part of European Union - Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey, Bosnia and Macedonia in the period of March 2006 to March 2018. We apply quantile regression framework to analyse contagion which we base on the occurrence and degree of coexceedances between the reference and analysed market. The results indicate that contagion between stock markets exists, however in different degree for each of the analysed markets. In addition we apply the regression framework specifically for period of financial crisis of 2008 to demonstrate that contagion is stronger during turbulent market periods. JEL Classification G01, G14, G15 Keywords coexceedance, quantile regression, contagion, stock markets Author's e-mail 80605682@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail roman.horvath@fsv.cuni.cz