In this dissertation, I explore the impact of idiosyncratic risk on asset returns. The first essay examines how idiosyncratic risk affects the cross-section of stock returns. I use an exponential GARCH model to forecast expected idiosyncratic volatility and employ a combination of the size effect, value premium, return momentum and short-term reversal to measure relative mispricing. I find that stock returns monotonically increase in idiosyncratic risk for relatively undervalued stocks and monotonically decrease in idiosyncratic risk for relatively overvalued stocks. This phenomenon is robust to various subsamples and industries, and cannot be explained by risk factors or firm characteristics. Further, transaction costs, short-sale constraints and information uncertainty cannot account for the role of idiosyncratic risk. Overall, these findings are consistent with the limits of arbitrage arguments and demonstrate the importance of idiosyncratic risk as an arbitrage cost. The second essay studies the cross-sectional determinants of delta-hedged stock option returns with an emphasis on the pricing of volatility risk. We find that the average delta-hedged option returns are significantly negative for most stocks, and they decrease monotonically with both total and idiosyncratic volatility of the underlying stock. Our results are robust and cannot be explained by the Fama-French factors, market volatility risk, jump risk, or the effect of past stock return and volatility-related option mispricing. Our results strongly support a negative market price of volatility risk specification that is proportional to the volatility level. Reflecting this volatility risk premium, writing covered calls on high volatility stocks on average earns about 2% more per month than selling covered calls on low volatility stocks. This spread is higher when it is more difficult to arbitrage between stock and option. / text

This thesis examines the impact of company announcements on the daily stock returns of lowly capitalised companies. A total of 105 companies comprise the sample and 1464 events are examined over the period 21110/97 to 03/0412000. The methodology employed is primarily, empirical in nature. Event studies are conducted to gauge the impact of company announcements on stock returns using the single index market model (SIMM) as the chosen equilibrium market model for modelling abnormal returns. The study professes three mam contributions to knowledge. The empirical evidence suggests that financial announcement have a more timely impact on stock returns than non-financial announcements. Secondly, there appears to be significant over-reaction and mean-reversion exhibited by lowly capitalised firms. Thirdly, the speed of adjustment of stock prices to new information is increased in cases where shareholder concentration is high while over-reactions appear inversely proportionate to shareholder concentration. This may be a consequence of smaller firms experiencing leakage of boardroom level information prior to public announcement days.

This research examines how the interval of observation affects the assessment of risk in stocks. I do this by analysing the economic and statistical significance of the worst returns on stocks, and by analysing the relationship between the interval of observation and factors which are thought to affect the return on stocks. This research shows the interval of observation used to assess the risk in stocks is important and the conclusions change considerably depending on how the data is drawn. In addition, the results indicate an investor’s time horizon is important in deciding their asset allocation and the style of investment should be suitable for the time horizon selected.

Submitted by Ronan Cunha (cunha.ronan@gmail.com) on 2015-04-14T13:26:14Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Ronan Cunha.pdf: 661334 bytes, checksum: dbb8ee6517fa128ea12981554ad549ad (MD5) / Rejected by Vera Lúcia Mourão (vera.mourao@fgv.br), reason: Prezado Ronan, preciso que você faça algumas correções em seu arquivo: Na list of tables, list of figures, contentes e no número de referência (no texto) aparece uma borda vermelha, é necessário retirar. existe também uma página em branco, logo após essas lista, também tem que excluir. att. Vera on 2015-04-14T18:00:45Z (GMT) / Submitted by Ronan Cunha (cunha.ronan@gmail.com) on 2015-04-14T20:06:50Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_ protocolo_final_Ronan Cunha.pdf: 659869 bytes, checksum: 55a00ce6030a561fa8370b341397ee03 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão (vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2015-04-14T20:15:51Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_ protocolo_final_Ronan Cunha.pdf: 659869 bytes, checksum: 55a00ce6030a561fa8370b341397ee03 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-15T12:32:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_ protocolo_final_Ronan Cunha.pdf: 659869 bytes, checksum: 55a00ce6030a561fa8370b341397ee03 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-27 / This study aims to contribute on the forecasting literature in stock return for emerging markets. We use Autometrics to select relevant predictors among macroeconomic, microeconomic and technical variables. We develop predictive models for the Brazilian market premium, measured as the excess return over Selic interest rate, Itaú SA, Itaú-Unibanco and Bradesco stock returns. We nd that for the market premium, an ADL with error correction is able to outperform the benchmarks in terms of economic performance. For individual stock returns, there is a trade o between statistical properties and out-of-sample performance of the model.

Submitted by Andressa Souza Campos Monteiro de Castro (dessascmc@gmail.com) on 2015-04-29T19:10:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_final.pdf: 676467 bytes, checksum: fdc9136b5dfb8c962d18e88e3f041564 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by BRUNA BARROS (bruna.barros@fgv.br) on 2015-04-30T14:49:43Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_final.pdf: 676467 bytes, checksum: fdc9136b5dfb8c962d18e88e3f041564 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2015-05-04T12:47:02Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_final.pdf: 676467 bytes, checksum: fdc9136b5dfb8c962d18e88e3f041564 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-04T12:47:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_final.pdf: 676467 bytes, checksum: fdc9136b5dfb8c962d18e88e3f041564 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-20 / This paper investigates the role of consumption-wealth ratio on predicting future stock returns through a panel approach. We follow the theoretical framework proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), in which a model derived from a nonlinear consumer’s budget constraint is used to settle the link between consumption-wealth ratio and stock returns. Using G7’s quarterly aggregate and financial data ranging from the first quarter of 1981 to the first quarter of 2014, we set an unbalanced panel that we use for both estimating the parameters of the cointegrating residual from the shared trend among consumption, asset wealth and labor income, cay, and performing in and out-of-sample forecasting regressions. Due to the panel structure, we propose different methodologies of estimating cay and making forecasts from the one applied by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001). The results indicate that cay is in fact a strong and robust predictor of future stock return at intermediate and long horizons, but presents a poor performance on predicting one or two-quarter-ahead stock returns.

The aim of this work is to examine the impact of financial development, financial constraints and capital control on stocks market returns. The research looks into stock returns of emerging and developed economies over the period of 2004-2016 by using data, both by firm-level and country level, from 88 developed and emerging countries. Furthermore, the KZ, WW and SA indexes were used to classified as being financially constrained and financially unconstrained and the level of capital control of each group of countries is interacted with financial constraints. We aim to determine the relationship between the variables used as the measurement (depth, access, efficiency and stability) of financial development of a country, the financial constraint and capital control and their relationship to the stock market returns. Previous research focusing on stock market returns have dealt with different influences affecting the stock returns; however, the literature examining the influence of capital control on stock return is scarce. Our results suggest that the extended Fama and French three-factor model including macroeconomic and financial development variables and considering the presence of financial constraints help in the understanding in their impact on asset pricing for emerging and developed countries alike. / Este trabalho tem por objetivo examinar o impacto do desenvolvimento financeiro, das restrições financeiras e do controle de capital no retorno das ações. A pesquisa analisa o retorno das ações dos países emergentes e desenvolvidos durante o período de 2004-2016 através de uma base de dados de 88 países, emergentes e desenvolvidos, com dados tanto ao nível da firma como ao nível do país. Além disso, os índices KZ, WW e SA são usados para classificar as empresas como restritas e não restritas financeiramente, e utiliza-se também as interações do nível de controle de capital com as restrições financeiras. O objetivo é determinar a relação entre as variáveis de desenvolvimento financeiro do país (profundidade, acesso, eficiência e estabilidade), as restrições financeiras e o controle de capital com o retorno de mercado das ações. As pesquisas anteriores acerca do tema retorno lidaram com diferentes fatores que afetam o retorno de ações; entretanto, estudos envolvendo a influência do controle de capital no retorno de ações ainda são escassos Nossos resultados sugerem que um modelo composto coletivamente pelo modelo de três fatores de Fama e French e variáveis macroeconômicas e de desenvolvimento financeiro, considerando ao mesmo tempo restrições financeiras, ajuda na melhor compreensão do impacto de ditas variáveis no preço de ativos em países emergentes e desenvolvidos.

Abstract This dissertation investigates the success of technology M&As. The research question is approached through four separate empirical essays, each of which assesses a different but interrelated issue of value creation of technology M&As. The approach used throughout the dissertation is to consider the motives of improving acquirer’s R&D activity through the acquisition of a technology firm and stress the role of the interaction between acquirer’s and target’s resources. The first two essays investigate the valuation consequences of M&As, while the following two essays examine pricing implications of M&As. The results indicate that technology M&As are successful in enhancing the acquiring firm’s R&D activities to the extent that it manifests as an increase in the stock market valuation of acquirer’s R&D spending and its higher future profitability. The results also demonstrate that investors do not fully recognize these benefits at the announcement of M&A. Therefore investors benefit from technology M&As in the long run when these benefits begin to materialize. Furthermore, the results show that even when compared to other possible motives, enhancing acquirer’s R&D activities is an important and successful motive for M&As, emphasizing the absorptive capacity of the acquiring firm in generating synergies from the combination of two firms. Overall, the findings of the dissertation provide more evidence on the success of mergers and acquisitions motivated by technology improvement. The thesis emphasizes the interaction between acquirer’s and target’s resources in creating synergies from M&As, with a focus on technological resources. The evidence also has important implications for the literature on the stock market valuation of R&D expenditures as it indicates that technology M&As can be considered an R&D investment with significant impacts on this activity.

Magister Commercii - MCom / This study analyses the extent to which stock returns provide forecasts of changes in interest rates and inflation for the South African market. The period under investigation, January 1966 - February 1989, is characterised by structural changes in the South African economy, especially in the financial markets. The earnings yield on shares is used as a measure of the return on stocks. Stock returns of 10 specific industries are used in addition to the overall market return. Monthly inflation series were constructed by employing both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). Before examining that relationship, tests were done to examine the relationship between nominal stock returns and expected inflation. The relation between the stock market and expected inflation is estimated by using three measures of expected inflation. The results appear to suggest that the stock market reacted positively to expected inflation during the 1966 - 1982 period. Two proxies of expected inflation. Best results inflation are used to were obtained with measure future the Fama-Gibbons measure. In addition, the results suggest that stock returns provide additional information of future inflation to that contained in the Fama-Gibbons and interest rate models. Returns for specific industries, used in this study, appear to provide marginally better forecasts of inflation than the overall market return. The results also suggest that stock returns provide forecasts of changes in interest rates and inflation. There is no evidence that the specific industries used, provide consistent better forecasts of interest rate changes than the overall market.

This paper presents the results of financial return analyses after 133 articles regarding social and environmental news were published in Svenska Dagbladet. During the period from 2006 to 2015 Swedish Large Cap companies were analysed after the news announcements, using the event study methodology. The study shows that abnormal returns were significant for only three events at the announcement date. A regression analysis shows that firms issuing ESG reports do not significantly have distinct returns from non-issuing firms when in the news. The study shows that firms producing consumer goods or services experienced 0.5 percent significant return differences compared to other firms in the pre-announcement period (two days). Findings also suggest that there are no significant differences between different industries when in the news regarding social and environmental aspects. An analysis of means shows no implications of differences regarding articles of: equality, employees, society or environment. This study concludes that voluntary corporate responsibility acts are not premiered when a firm is in the news regarding social or environmental events.

The presented master thesis is focused on the stock markets returns analysis using a new type of neural network. First chapter of the thesis describes the underlying theory of the financial time series prediction, Efficient Market Hypothesis and conventional forecasting models. Following part illustrates biological framework, basic principles, functioning of neural networks, their architecture and several well-known learning algorithms such as Gradient descent, Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm or Conjugate gradient. It also mentions certain disadvantages which influence the performance and effectiveness of neural networks. Third chapter is devoted to two applied metaheuristic techniques, i.e. genetic algorithms and simulated annealing that were integrated into neural networks framework to eliminate above mentioned drawbacks. Next chapter describes details of presented hybrid network, whereas the last section is aimed at evaluation of overall results of all models. It shows that on the examined sample hybrid network clearly outperformed standard techniques as well as ordinary neural networks and in most cases achieved the least mean squared error among all explored methods. Keywords: stock returns analysis, neural networks, genetic algorithms, simulated annealing, hybrid networks JEL classification:...