Large earthquakes often exhibit complex slip distributions and occur along non-planar faults, resulting in variable stress changes throughout the fault region. To better discern the role of stress changes and fluid flow on aftershock sequences, we examine areas of enhanced and reduced mean stress along the structurally complex strike-slip faults that hosted the 1992 Landers, 2010 El-Mayor Cucapah, and 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes. We characterize the behavior of aftershock sequences with the Epidemic Type Aftershock-Sequence Model and use the Maximum Log Likelihood method to determine the optimal set of ETAS parameter values along each fault. This study indicates that extensional areas experience greater secondary aftershock triggering and a higher density of aftershocks directly following the mainshock, which could be attributed to fluid influx. However, our results also highlight some shortcomings of the ETAS model, including high parameter correlation, and influence of catalog size and magnitude cutoff on parameter estimations.

Temporally and spatially clustered earthquake sequences along plate boundary zones indicate that patterns of seismicity may be influenced by earthquake-induced stress changes. Many studies invoke Coulomb stress change (CSC) as one possible geo-mechanical mechanism to explain stress interactions between earthquakes, their aftershocks, or large subsequent earthquakes; however, few address the statistical robustness of CSC triggering beyond spatial correlations. To address this, I evaluate the accuracy of CSC predictions in subduction zones where Earth’s largest earthquakes occur and generate voluminous and diverse aftershock sequences. A series of synthetic tests are implemented to investigate the accuracy of inferred stress changes predicted by slip distributions inverted from suites of geodetic observations (InSAR, GPS, seafloor geodetic observations) that are increasingly available for subduction zone earthquakes. Through these tests, I determine that inferred stress changes are accurately predicted at distances greater than a critical distance from modeled slip that is most dependent on earthquake magnitude and the proximity of observations to the earthquake itself. This methodology is then applied to the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake sequence to identify aftershocks that may be used to perform statistically robust tests of CSC triggering; however, only 13 aftershocks from a population of 475 events occurred where confidence in CSC predictions is deemed to be high. The inferred CSC for these events exhibit large uncertainties owing to nodal plane uncertainties assigned to the aftershock mechanisms. Additionally, tests of multiple published slip distributions result in inconsistent stress change predictions resolved for the 13 candidate aftershocks. While these results suggest that CSC imparted by subduction megathrust earthquakes largely cannot be resolved with slip distributions inverted from terrestrial geodetic observations alone, the synthetic tests suggest that dramatic improvements can be made through the inclusion of near-source geodetic observations from seafloor geodetic networks. Furthermore, CSC uncertainties will likely improve with detailed earthquake moment tensor catalogs generated from dense regional seismic networks.

The research study involved using the modified FEMWATER code to investigate the impact of total stress changes on groundwater flow in the vicinity of a salt tailings pile. Total stress and pore-pressure data observed at the Lanigan and Rocanville potash-mine sites were used to assist the development of a generic FEMWATER model. The original 3-D mesh considered for model study covers a region of 7.6 km x 7.6 km x 60 m. The simulated pile itself covers a surface area of 1.6 km x 1.6 km within the region. Symmetry of the idealized system allowed half of the system to be modelled to reduce the size of the mesh. The model was layered to facilitate different materials representing different hydrostratigraphic scenarios. The GMS-release of the FEMWATER code (version 2.1) was modified to simulate the pore-pressure response to total stress changes caused by tailings pile loading at the ground surface to be modelled. The modified code was verified before applying to present study.<p>Long-term pore pressure generation and dissipation due to pile construction was investigated for eleven hydrostratigraphic scenarios consisting of plastic clays, stiff till and dense sand layers commonly found in Saskatchewan potash mining regions. The model was run for two distinctive pile loading patterns. Model results indicated that the loading pattern has a significant influence on pore pressure generation beneath the pile. The model was initially run for 30 year pile construction period and later simulated for 15, 25 and 35 year construction periods to investigate the impact of loading rate. These results showed that, as expected, the peak pore water pressure head is proportional to the pile construction rate. A sensitivity analysis, which was carried out by changing hydraulic conductivity of stiff till, revealed that the lower the hydraulic conductivity, the greater the pore pressure generation beneath the pile.<p>Overall, the research study helped to understand and predict the influence of pile construction and hydrostratigraphy on pore-pressure changes beneath salt tailing piles. Low K/Ss or cv materials (compressible tills) demonstrate a slow dissipation rate and high excess pressures. Compared to dense sand which has very high K/Ss, till has very low K/Ss which causes in high excess pore pressure generation. Sand layers act as drains, rapidly dissipating pore pressures. Thicker low K/Ss units result in slower dissipation and higher pressures. As the thickness of the low K/Ss layer increases, the peak pressures increase as the drainage path lengthens. Thin plastic clay layers give rise to the highest pressures.<p>The model study showed that hydrostratigraphic scenarios similar to those found at Saskatchewan potash mine sites can generate the high pore pressures observed in the vicinity of salt tailings piles as a result of pile loading. Peak pressures are very sensitive to pile construction rates, loading patterns and hydrostratiagraphy of the region. Peak pressures can reach levels that would be of concern for pile stability on the presence of adverse geological conditions.

The research study involved using the modified FEMWATER code to investigate the impact of total stress changes on groundwater flow in the vicinity of a salt tailings pile. Total stress and pore-pressure data observed at the Lanigan and Rocanville potash-mine sites were used to assist the development of a generic FEMWATER model. The original 3-D mesh considered for model study covers a region of 7.6 km x 7.6 km x 60 m. The simulated pile itself covers a surface area of 1.6 km x 1.6 km within the region. Symmetry of the idealized system allowed half of the system to be modelled to reduce the size of the mesh. The model was layered to facilitate different materials representing different hydrostratigraphic scenarios. The GMS-release of the FEMWATER code (version 2.1) was modified to simulate the pore-pressure response to total stress changes caused by tailings pile loading at the ground surface to be modelled. The modified code was verified before applying to present study.<p>Long-term pore pressure generation and dissipation due to pile construction was investigated for eleven hydrostratigraphic scenarios consisting of plastic clays, stiff till and dense sand layers commonly found in Saskatchewan potash mining regions. The model was run for two distinctive pile loading patterns. Model results indicated that the loading pattern has a significant influence on pore pressure generation beneath the pile. The model was initially run for 30 year pile construction period and later simulated for 15, 25 and 35 year construction periods to investigate the impact of loading rate. These results showed that, as expected, the peak pore water pressure head is proportional to the pile construction rate. A sensitivity analysis, which was carried out by changing hydraulic conductivity of stiff till, revealed that the lower the hydraulic conductivity, the greater the pore pressure generation beneath the pile.<p>Overall, the research study helped to understand and predict the influence of pile construction and hydrostratigraphy on pore-pressure changes beneath salt tailing piles. Low K/Ss or cv materials (compressible tills) demonstrate a slow dissipation rate and high excess pressures. Compared to dense sand which has very high K/Ss, till has very low K/Ss which causes in high excess pore pressure generation. Sand layers act as drains, rapidly dissipating pore pressures. Thicker low K/Ss units result in slower dissipation and higher pressures. As the thickness of the low K/Ss layer increases, the peak pressures increase as the drainage path lengthens. Thin plastic clay layers give rise to the highest pressures.<p>The model study showed that hydrostratigraphic scenarios similar to those found at Saskatchewan potash mine sites can generate the high pore pressures observed in the vicinity of salt tailings piles as a result of pile loading. Peak pressures are very sensitive to pile construction rates, loading patterns and hydrostratiagraphy of the region. Peak pressures can reach levels that would be of concern for pile stability on the presence of adverse geological conditions.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第18082号 / 理博第3960号 / 新制||理||1571(附属図書館) / 30940 / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)教授 飯尾 能久, 教授 平原 和朗, 教授 福田 洋一 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第18800号 / 理博第4058号 / 新制||理||1584(附属図書館) / 31751 / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)教授 平原 和朗, 教授 澁谷 拓郎, 准教授 久家 慶子 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

The state of stress in forearc regions depends on the balance of two competing factors: the plate coupling force that generates margin-normal compression, and the gravitational force, that generates margin-normal tension. Widespread reversal of the focal mechanisms of small earthquakes after the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake indicate a reversal in the dominant state of stress of the forearc, from compressive before the earthquake to tensional afterwards. This implies that the plate coupling force dominated before the earthquake, and that the coseismic weakening of the fault lowered the amount of stress exerted on the forearc, such that the gravitational force became dominant in the post-seismic period. This change requires that the average stress drop along the fault represents a significant portion of the fault strength. Two cases are possible: (1) The fault was strong and the stress drop was large or nearly-complete (e.g. from 50 MPa to 10 MPa), or (2) that the fault was weak and the stress drop was small (e.g. from 15 MPa to 10 MPa). The first option appears to be consistent with the dramatic weakening associated with high-rate rock friction experiments, while the second option is consistent with seismological observations that large earthquakes are characterized by low average stress drops. In this work, we demonstrate that the second option is correct. A very weak fault, represented by an apparent coefficient of friction of 0.032, is sufficient to put the Japan Trench forearc into margin-normal compression. Lowering this value by ~0.01 causes the reversal of the state of stress as observed after the earthquake. A slightly stronger fault, with a strength of 0.045, does not agree well with the observed spatial extent of normal faulting for the same coseismic reduction in strength. We also calculate distributions of stress change on the fault and average stress drop values for the Tohoku-oki earthquake, as predicted from 20 published rupture models which were constrained by seismic, tsunami, and geodetic data. Our results reconcile seismic observations that average stress drops for large megathrust events are low with laboratory work on high-rate weakening that predicts very high or complete stress drop. We find that, in all rupture models, regions of high stress drop (20 – 55 MPa) are probably indicative of dynamic weakening during seismic slip, but that the heterogeneous nature of fault slip does not allow these regions to become widespread. Also, coseismic stress increase on the fault occurs in many parts of the fault, including parts of the area that experienced high slip (> 30 m). These two factors ensure that the average stress drop remains low (< 5 MPa). The low average stress drop during the Tohoku earthquake, consistent with values reported for other large earthquakes, makes it unambiguous that the Japan Trench megathrust is very weak. / Graduate

L'architecture structurale de l’avant-pays sud atlasique tunisien est caractérisée par un style tectonique mixte résultant de la réactivation de failles normales connectées avec le socle, de la mise en place de décollements dans la couverture sédimentaire ainsi que d’un diapirisme non négligeable. La géométrie et l’orientation des structures extensives préexistantes, issues du rifting Trias à Turonien, contrôlent la déformation de la couverture sédimentaire au cours des phases compressives d’âge fini-mésozoïque et cénozoïque. En effet, la marge tunisienne a enregistrée une longue période de rifting, de la fin du Permien-Trias jusqu’au Turonien. Une inversion tectonique s’est initiée probablement pendant le Crétacé supérieur. Les compressions tectoniques tertiaires se sont produites au cours de trois périodes: l’Eocène, le Mio-Pliocène et le Plio-Quaternaire. Notre étude montre une variation temporel du champ de contrainte régional, d’un régime tectonique compressif de direction NW-SE d’âge Mio-Pliocène à un régime tectonique compressif de direction N-S à NNE-SSW d’âge Quaternaire à l’actuel. Ce changement de régime tectonique a lieu, soit à la fin du Pliocène, soit au début du Quaternaire. Et une variation spatiale du champ de contrainte, de la compression (Domaine atlasique de la Tunisie) à la transtension (Golfe de Gabès), semble se faire progressivement du Nord vers le Sud-Est. Cette étude souligne le rôle prépondérant des failles profondes héritées et acquises au cours de l'évolution de la marge passive sud téthysienne. Dans ce domaine, la restauration de notre coupe équilibrée montre un raccourcissement modéré en surface de l’ordre de 8.1 km (~7,3%). / The structural architecture of the Tunisian foreland consists in a mixed tectonic style with deep-seated basement faults, shallower décollements within sedimentary cover and salt diapirism. Structural geometry and orientation of the pre-existing Triassic-Turonian extensional structures controlled subsequent contractional deformation within the sedimentary cover. The rifting of the margin started in the late Permian–Triassic and continued up to the Turonian. From the inversion of the successive compressions, the development of ENE-trending thrust-related anticlines such as the Orbata and Chemsi structures are controlled by the reactivation of the inherited Mesozoic faults. Geologic data from this region indicate that the positive tectonic inversion occurred probably during Late Cretaceous period. The Cenozoic tectonic compressions in the southern Atlassic domain occurred during three periods: Late Eocene, Late Miocene and Plio-Quaternary. The Fault kinematic analysis reveals a temporal change in states of stress that occurred during the Late Cenozoic. A paleostress (Miocene-Pliocene) state is characterized by a regional compressional tectonic regime with a mean N134±09°E trending compressional axis (σ1). A modern (Quaternary to present-day) state of stress also corresponds to compressional tectonic regime with a regionally mean N05±10°E trending horizontal σ1. This study underlines the predominant role of inherited basement structures acquired during the evolution of the southern Tethyan margin, and their influence on the geometry of the Atlassic fold-and-thrust belt. At the southern Atlas of Tunisia our restoration shows a surface shortening of ~8.1 km (~7.3%).