Tese de mestrado integrado. Engenharia Civil. Universidade do Porto. Faculdade de Engenharia.. 2010

Pluvial flood is a natural hazard that severely threatens people’s property and safety. With the development of algorithms and computer technologies, numerical modeling has emerged as an effective tool for predicting the impacts of floods. Despite being one of the most costly types of floods in West Africa, pluvial flooding has not been studied as extensively as riverine flooding, probably because modeling runoff across urban areas remains a challenge. Recently, a module based on the SCS Curve Number Method is incorporated in the open-source software TELEAMC-2D, which provides a possibility to model the infiltration process dynamically. TELEMAC-2D is one of the first hydraulic models to consider hydrologic parameters. Although the update is expected to increase the suitability of TELAMC-2D in pluvial flood modeling, the infiltration routine has not yet been tested in a real situation in a semi-arid area. This study aims to investigate the capability of TELEMAC-2D in simulating the rainfall-runoff process during a pluvial flood event in a semi-arid urban area, Niamey city in west Africa. Due to the lack of calibration data, a hydrological model SWAT is used to evaluate the performance of TELEMAC-2D. Through the comparison between the runoffs generated by the two models, it is found that TELEMAC-2D has a similar trend with SWAT in runoff simulation. However, TELEMAC-2D significantly overestimates the runoff magnitude despite having the same SCS values as SWAT. The reason for the overestimation is TELEMAC-2D that does not properly consider evaporation. Two suggestions are made to improve pluvial floods simulations using TELEMAC-2D in semi-arid areas: 1) couple TELEMAC-2D with a hydrologic model, and use net rainfall generated by the hydrologic model as precipitation input; 2) provide functions in infiltration subroutine that calculate rainfall abstractions by other hydrologic phenomena in addition to the infiltration process.

This study investigates the complex flow structure generated by riparian emergent vegetation along the edge of floodplain. Detailed velocity and boundary shear stress measurements were carried out for various arrangements of emergent rigid cylindric rods of 3 mm, 6 mm and 9 mm diameters and for three different rod densities. In addition, the impact of foliage on the flow field was assessed during a series of experiments where brushes were used instead of smooth rods. The results of these new experiments are first presented. In addition to the laboratory data, field data was obtained through Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler measurements for two flood events in a stretch of the river Rhône that can be approximated to a straight compound channel with vegetated banks. The analysis of the flow structure highlights the presence of strong secondary circulation and increased vorticity on the river banks. The rods on the edge of the floodplain increase significantly flow resistance, reducing velocity and decreasing boundary shear stress. Flow rate was seen to decrease with increasing vegetative density for all cases except when foliage was added. This suggests that an optimum threshold density, for which a smaller density would lead to an increased flow rate might exist. Wakes trailing downstream of the vegetation stem, planform coherent structures advected between the main channel and the floodplain, and eddying motion in the flow due to enhanced turbulence anisotropy are among the defining patterns observed in the studied compound channel flows with one line of emergent vegetation along the edge of the floodplain. The Shiono and Knight Method (SKM) was modified in order to account for the increased turbulence activity due to the rods. The drag force term was introduced in the same way as in the work of Rameshwaran and Shiono (2007). However, a new term was added to the transverse shear stress term in the form of an Elder formulation, incorporating a friction drag coefficient which can be derived from the experimental data. In this proposed version, the advection term was set to zero. Another version of the SKM, similar to Rameshwaran and Shiono (2007), was also tested with the addition of a local drag friction only applied in the rod region. The proposed SKM version without the advection term was favored as it can be more closely related to the experimental data and to physical processes. Finally, the capabilities of Telemac-2D were tested against the experimental data for various turbulence models. The Large Eddy Simulation turbulence model highlighted some unsteady flow patterns that were observed during experiments, while satisfactorily predicting the lateral velocity and boundary shear stress distributions.

Performance-based measures are used to validate and quantify how likely the system’s results resemble that of the actual data. Its application in inundation studies is performed by comparing the extents of the predicted flood to the real event by measuring their overlap size and getting the percentage of this size to the union of both data. In this study, performances of 1- and 2-dimensional flow models were assessed when used with different topographic data sources, rasterisation cell sizes, mesh resolution and Manning’s values with the help of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) was also implemented to evaluate the behaviour and the uncertainties of the Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) steady-flow model in delineating the inundation extents when various sets of friction coefficients for floodplain and channel were utilised as inputs. Although it was not possible to perform the GLUE procedure with Telemac-2D due to the simulation time, Manning’s n performances’ effects were evaluated using ten randomly selected sets of friction for the channel and floodplain. The LiDAR data, which had the highest resolution, performed well in all simulations, followed by Lantmäteriet data at 50 m resolution. The lowest resolution Digital Terrain Elevation Data (DTED) showed poor resemblance to the actual event and big misrepresentations of flooded areas. Rasterisation cell sizes in HEC-RAS showed minimal effect to the inundation limits when used between 1 m and 5 m, but performance started to deteriorate at 10 m (Lantmäteriet) and 20 m (LiDAR). The 10 m mesh resolution used for LiDAR behaved poorer than the 20 m mesh, which performed well in the different 2D simulations. For HEC-RAS, =0.033 to 0.05 performed well when paired with =0.02 to 0.10. It was apparent, therefore, that the channel’s Manning’s n affected the performances of the floodplain’s . Furthermore, the study also showed that using heterogeneous roughness values corresponding to the different land use classes is not as effective as using single channel and floodplain’s Manning. The dependence of the floodplain’s roughness to the channel’s friction values had also been manifested by Telemac, even though it required lower values than the 1D simulator. = 0.007 to 0.019   and =0.01 to 0.04 gave good performance to the 2D system. In terms of the overall model performance, HEC-RAS 1D exhibited good results for Testeboån. Even when the average distances to the actual data were estimated, the breadths were shorter compared to the most optimal output of the two-dimensional simulator, which showed more overestimated areas, despite the fact that the overlap size with the 1977 actual event was better than HEC-RAS. It could be because the measures-of-fit took into consideration the areal sizes that were over- and under-predicted aside from the overlap sizes between the observed and modelled results. This could be the same reason with the mean distances produced, wherein higher values were computed for Telemac-2D due to its bigger gap from the actual flood as brought by the enlargement in the flood extents. But it was also made known in the study that such ambiguities in the model performance were further contributed by the characteristics of the floodplain’s topography of being flat. Testeboån’s inclination to the banks was averaged at 0.027 m/m, with the central portion at 0.002 m/m. The middle portion of the floodplain was illustrated to contain more uncertain regions, where water extents changed easily as the parameters were altered. Distances greater than 200 m were also mostly located within these inclination values or within 0.005 to 0.006 m/m. The response of distance to the floodplain’s gradient improved when the slope value became higher, and this had been particularly noticed between 0 to 50 m.

Wetlands are dynamic ecosystems and important sources of natural resources that provide a large array of ecosystem services. Unfortunately, most wetlands are threatened by human and natural stressors, such as damming, irrigation, water abstraction, climate change and variability that compromise the sustainability of the whole system. The Inner Niger Delta (IND), Mali, West Africa, is one of the biggest floodplains in the world, has a vast natural resource that attracts many people to live in and around the delta. The IND is considered a hub of human activities that include agriculture, fishing, transport, and tourism and plays an important role in promoting sustainable development for food security, water management, and the environment. As for most wetlands in the world, the very existence of the IND is at stake with the ever-increasing number of dams and irrigation schemes that are built to feed the growing population in the region. Given the fragility of the system and the multiplicity of water uses in the IND, the current knowledge of the flood dynamics and its relation to ecosystem services and the productivity of economic activity is insufficient. There is no operational hydrodynamic model of the IND, and the Malian authorities rely on simplified models and empirical relations for water resources management in the area. This thesis contributes to a better water resources management of the IND by a) developing the first 2D hydrodynamic model based on a triangular adaptative mesh of the IND that performs well despite the poor quality of available topographic/bathymetric data b) developing an innovative way of accounting for the strong hysteresis phenomenon in the IND in the hydrodynamic modeling that allowed a better reproduction of the hydraulic connectivity between important lakes and the main river and c) developing the first non-stationary relationship between the water levels at a reference station and the flooded area in the IND. The first part of the thesis deals with the challenge of developing a hydrodynamic model using only two low-resolution satellite-derived Digital Elevation Models: the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), which has a 30m horizontal resolution, and the Multi-Error-Removed Improved-Terrain (MERIT). Given the low vertical accuracy of global DEMs, another DEM was derived using the waterline method, by combining water extent map from satellite images and local water level information. Channel depths were approximated using the hydraulic geometric relationship methods, while the friction coefficient was derived from the global land-use class classification (GLCC) data. The river network was extracted from the water extent map corresponding to the lowest water level. Six different hydrodynamic models were created by varying the DEM and downstream boundary conditions. Each of the models was calibrated for discharge and water levels. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) was finally used to combine the outputs of all six hydrodynamic models into one robust simulation. In the second part, the effect of hysteresis at the downstream boundary condition of the hydrodynamic model was examined. Existing hydrodynamic models of the IND use a static stage-discharge relationship as a downstream boundary condition during both the rise and recession of the flood, leading to potential inaccuracies in the simulation of the flood extent. This paper explores the improvement in the simulation of the flood and connectivity dynamics resulting from the use of a looped rating curve at the downstream boundary of a hydrodynamic model of the IND. The hysteresis effect is integrated into the rating curve using two methods, one based on dimensionless discharges and levels (DLRC) and the other based on the modified Jones formula (MJRC). Results show that the hysteresis effect is better represented using DLRC and that simulations using any of the modified rating curves improves the accuracy of floodplain extent simulations in the areas close to the downstream station, as well as the timing of the connectivity of the river system to one important lake in the IND. The improvement in water level simulation decreases steadily with distance from the downstream boundary of the modeled area. The third part of the thesis deals with the development of an improved relation between inundation extent and water levels in the IND. Accurate knowledge of the flooded extent considered crucial for the proper management of natural resources in the IND. Several authors have developed empirical relationships between water levels at key stations in the IND and the flooded extent in an attempt to provide simple tools to link hydraulic parameters to the performance socio-economic activities in the IND. However, simulations from a hydrodynamic model of the IND showed that the relationship between water levels and the inundation extents varies greatly from year to year, and cannot be adequately captured by static formulas. First, it is demonstrated in this paper that if the maximum water level area is known in advance, accurate relationships between water levels and inundation extents can be derived. In the second part of the paper, stepwise regression is used to develop a function that can forecast maximum water levels at Akka using observed streamflow and precipitation upstream of the Delta. The combination of the two results allows a realtime estimation of the inundated area in the IND using observed water levels, precipitation, and streamflow.

Les courants marins sont aujourd’hui considérés comme une source d’énergie renouvelable prometteuse. De nombreux projets internationaux consistent à installer différents types de convertisseurs d’énergie des courants marins. La caractérisation des ressources marines est alors essentielle pour optimiser cette production d’énergie. En particulier, les zones à fort potentiel hydrolien sont sujettes à une turbulence multi-échelles, allant de petits tourbillons capables de solliciter les pales en fatigue aux gros tourbillons pouvant perturber la production de la turbine. Une meilleure connaissance de la génération de ces tourbillons et de leur propagation est essentielle. C’est l’objet du projet ANR/FEM THYMOTE (Turbulence, Hydrolienne, Modélisation, Observations et TEsts en bassin) avec comme site d’étude le Raz Blanchard : l’un des sites les plus prometteurs d’Europe. L’une des questions posées concerne la capacité des grandes structures morphologiques du fond marin à produire des tourbillons. La méthode utilisée est l’emploi d’un modèle régional 3D pour couvrir la zone occupée par ces reliefs.Les modèles régionaux tels que TELEMAC-3D utilisent une fermeture turbulente de type URANS (Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes), avec par exemple le modèle $k-\varepsilon$. Cette approche ne permet pas une description fine des instationnarités de la turbulence. Cependant, grâce à l’augmentation des performances de calcul, la méthode Large Eddy Simulation (LES) devient envisageable. Celle-ci s’appuie sur un filtrage de l’écoulement, et consiste à simuler uniquement les plus grandes échelles de turbulence. Les plus petites, elles, sont modélisées. Le code TELEMAC-3D a été modifié durant cette thèse de manière à introduire cette fermeture turbulente. Le code développé permet de simuler des écoulements à surface libre en tenant compte d'une large gamme d'échelles allant de la turbulence à la propagation de la marée. Le code TELEMAC-LES a été validé sur la base de résultats expérimentaux issus de la littérature. Il est ensuite utilisé pour étudier les écoulements turbulents dans le Raz Blanchard grâce à une stratégie par emboîtement. La méthode LES permet alors une description fine de la turbulence de ces milieux, conduisant à l’identification de structures tourbillonnaires énergétiques, et donc la définition des zones les plus appropriées pour l’installation d'hydroliennes. / Nowadays tidal currents are considered a promising renewable energy source. Many worldwide projects involve the installation of different types of marine current energy converters. The characterisation of marine resources is therefore essential to increase efficiency of energy production. Areas with high hydroturbine potential are particularly subject to multi-scale turbulence, ranging from small vortices able to cause large fatigue loads, to large vortices capable of disrupting turbine production. A better knowledge of the generation of these eddies and their propagation is essential. This is the purpose of the ANR/FEM THYMOTE project (Turbulence, Hydrolienne, Modélisation, Observations et TEsts en bassin) studying one of the most promising sites in Europe: the Alderney Race. One of the questions raised concerns the ability of large morphological structures on the seabed to produce eddies. The adopted method uses a 3D regional model to cover the area occupied by these bedforms.Regional models such as TELEMAC-3D use a turbulent URANS (Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes) closure, with for example the $k-\varepsilon$. This approach does not allow a detailed description of the instability of turbulence. However, thanks to the increase in computing resources, the large scale method (LES) becomes feasible. This is based on flow filtering, and consists of simulating only the largest turbulence scales, whereas the smaller ones are modeled. The TELEMAC-3D code was modified during this thesis in order to introduce this turbulent closure. The code developed allows free surface flows to be simulated over a wide range of scales from turbulence to tidal propagation. The TELEMAC-LES code has been validated on the basis of experimental results from the literature. It is then used to study turbulent flows in the Alderney Race using a nesting strategy. The LES method allows a detailed description of the turbulence of these environments. It finally leads to the identification of energetic vortex structures, and thus the definition the most appropriate zones for the installation of tidal turbines.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第24593号 / 工博第5099号 / 新制||工||1976(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 角 哲也, 准教授 竹門 康弘, 准教授 Kantoush Sameh / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Hydraulisk modellering är ett viktigt verktyg vid utvärdering av lämpliga åtgärder för torrfåror. Modelleringen påverkas dock alltid av osäkerheter och om dessa är stora kan en modells simuleringsresultat bli opålitligt. Det kan därför vara viktigt att presentera dess simuleringsresultat tillsammans med osäkerheter. Denna studie utreder olika typer av osäkerheter som kan påverka hydrauliska modellers simuleringsresultat. Dessutom utförs känslighetsanalyser där en andel av osäkerheten i simuleringsresultatet tillskrivs de olika inmatningsvariablerna som beaktas. De parametrar som ingår i analysen är upplösningen i använd terrängmodell, upplösning i den hydrauliska modellens beräkningsnät, inflöde till modellen och råheten genom Mannings tal. Studieobjektet som behandlades i denna studie var en torrfåra som ligger nedströms Sandforsdammen i Skellefteälven och programvaran TELEMAC-MASCARET nyttjades för samtliga hydrauliska simuleringar i denna studie.  För att analysera osäkerheter kopplade till upplösning i en terrängmodell och ett beräkningsnät användes ett kvalitativt tillvägagångsätt. Ett antal simuleringar utfördes där alla parametrar förutom de kopplade till upplösning fixerades. Simuleringsresultaten illustrerades sedan genom profil, sektioner, enskilda raster och raster som visade differensen mellan olika simuleringar. Resultaten för analysen visade att en låg upplösning i terrängmodeller och beräkningsnät kan medföra osäkerheter lokalt där det är högre vattenhastigheter och där det finns stor variation i geometrin. Några signifikanta effekter kunde dock inte skönjas på större skala.  Separat gjordes kvantitativa osäkerhets- och känslighetsanalyser för vattendjup och vattenhastighet i torrfåran. Inmatningsparametrarna inflöde till modellen och råhet genom Mannings tal ansågs medföra störst påverkan och övriga parametrar fixerades således. Genom script skapade i programmeringsspråket Python tillsammans med biblioteket OpenTURNS upprättades ett stort urval av möjliga kombinationer för storlek på inflöde och Mannings tal. Alla kombinationer som skapades antogs till fullo täcka upp för den totala osäkerheten i inmatningsparametrarna. Genom att använda urvalet för simulering kunde osäkerheten i simuleringsresultaten också beskrivas. Osäkerhetsanalyser utfördes både genom klassisk beräkning av statistiska moment och genom Polynomial Chaos Expansion. En känslighetsanalys följde sedan där Polynomial Chaos Expansion användes för att beräkna Sobols känslighetsindex för inflödet och Mannings tal i varje kontrollpunkt. Den kvantitativa osäkerhetsanalysen visade att det fanns relativt stora osäkerheter för både vattendjupet och vattenhastighet vid behandlat studieobjekt. Flödet bidrog med störst påverkan på osäkerheten medan Mannings tals påverkan var insignifikant i jämförelse, bortsett från ett område i modellen där dess påverkan ökade markant. / Hydraulic modelling is an important tool when measures for dry river stretches are assessed. The modelling is however always affected by uncertainties and if these are big the simulation results from the models could become unreliable. It may therefore be important to present its simulation results together with the uncertainties. This study addresses various types of uncertainties that may affect the simulation results from hydraulic models. In addition, sensitivity analysis is conducted where a proportion of the uncertainty in the simulation result is attributed to the various input variables that are included. The parameters included in the analysis are terrain model resolution, hydraulic model mesh resolution, inflow to the model and Manning’s roughness coefficient. The object studied in this paper was a dry river stretch located downstream of Sandforsdammen in the river of Skellefteälven, Sweden. The software TELEMAC-MASCARET was used to perform all hydraulic simulations for this thesis.  To analyze the uncertainties related to the resolution for the terrain model and the mesh a qualitative approach was used. Several simulations were run where all parameters except those linked to the resolution were fixed. The simulation results were illustrated through individual rasters, profiles, sections and rasters that showed the differences between different simulations. The results of the analysis showed that a low resolution for terrain models and meshes can lead to uncertainties locally where there are higher water velocities and where there are big variations in the geometry. However, no significant effects could be discerned on a larger scale.  Separately, quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analyzes were performed for the simulation results, water depth and water velocity for the dry river stretch. The input parameters that were assumed to have the biggest impact were the inflow to the model and Manning's roughness coefficient. Other model input parameters were fixed. Through scripts created in the programming language Python together with the library OpenTURNS, a large sample of possible combinations for the size of inflow and Manning's roughness coefficient was created. All combinations were assumed to fully cover the uncertainty of the input parameters. After using the sample for simulation, the uncertainty of the simulation results could also be described. Uncertainty analyses were conducted through both classical calculation of statistical moments and through Polynomial Chaos Expansion. A sensitivity analysis was then conducted through Polynomial Chaos Expansion where Sobol's sensitivity indices were calculated for the inflow and Manning's M at each control point. The analysis showed that there were relatively large uncertainties for both the water depth and the water velocity. The inflow had the greatest impact on the uncertainties while Manning's M was insignificant in comparison, apart from one area in the model where its impact increased.

Flood risk assessment in urban areas necessitates the utilization of advanced modeling strategies to accurately depict inundation patterns and potential impacts on communities and infrastructure. This study investigates the impacts of varying 2D modeling strategies on flood risk assessment in the context of the Garonne River flood risk prevention plan. The research focuses on building 2D hydraulic models for the Garonne and Ariège rivers using Telemac 2D, supplemented by models for their tributaries on HEC-RAS. Following calibration, the 1875 reference flood event is simulated, sensitivity analyses were conducted on downstream boundary conditions, Strickler coefficient for the floodplain, and discharge parameters. The results reveal significant impacts of these parameters on the final hazard maps, underscoring the importance of thoughtful consideration in model calibration and parameter selection. It also questions the strategy to base the assessment on an extreme historical flood event with little data to back up the accuracy of the results, or favoring a less extreme event that will lead more accurate results, but with maybe less security.  The study highlights the critical role of high precision topography, particularly in flat and urban areas, where traditional discharge data may be lacking, and precipitation-based methods may prove less effective. The choice of modeling software also emerges as a key factor influencing the accuracy of flood hazard assessments, with variations in parameters and computation methods yielding differing outcomes.  Overall, this research underscores the complex interplay between modeling strategies, parameter selection, and topographic characteristics in urban flood risk assessment. It emphasizes the need for a nuanced approach in choosing flood events for modeling, balancing the availability of data with the accuracy and reliability of results. / Riskbedömning av översvämningar i stadsområden kräver användning av avancerade modelleringsstrategier för att korrekt beskriva översvämningsmönster och potentiella effekter på samhällen och infrastruktur. I denna studie undersöks effekterna av olika 2D- modelleringsstrategier på bedömningen av översvämningsrisker i samband med planen för förebyggande av översvämningsrisker i Garonnefloden. Forskningen fokuserar på att bygga hydrauliska 2D-modeller för floderna Garonne och Ariège med Telemac 2D, kompletterat med modeller för deras bifloder i HEC-RAS.  Efter kalibrering simuleras 1875 års referensflöde, känslighetsanalyser utförs på nedströms gränsvillkor, Strickler-koefficienten för översvämningsslätten och flödesparametrar. Resultaten visar att dessa parametrar har en betydande inverkan på de slutliga riskkartorna, vilket understryker vikten av noggranna överväganden vid modellkalibrering och val av parametrar.  Studien belyser den kritiska roll som högupplöst topografi spelar, särskilt i platta och urbana områden, där traditionella flödesdata kan saknas och nederbördsbaserade metoder kan vara mindre effektiva. Valet av modelleringsprogramvara framstår också som en nyckelfaktor som påverkar noggrannheten i bedömningen av översvämningsrisker, med variationer i parametrar och beräkningsmetoder som ger olika resultat.  Sammantaget understryker denna forskning det komplexa samspelet mellan modelleringsstrategier, val av parametrar och topografiska egenskaper vid riskbedömning av översvämningar i städer.  Den betonar behovet av ett nyanserat tillvägagångssätt när man väljer översvämningshändelser för modellering, och balanserar tillgången på data med resultatens noggrannhet och tillförlitlighet.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第22052号 / 工博第4633号 / 新制||工||1722(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 角 哲也, 准教授 Sameh Kantoush, 准教授 竹門 康弘 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM