成比例危險迴歸模式常被用於分析存活資料，Weibull模式更是其中惟一兼具加速失敗特性者。本論文將利用兩種分析方法，以研究任意設限及截斷資料的Weibull迴歸模式。第一種方法是利用最大概似估計法求算設限及截斷資料下的參數估計值（MLE），第二種方法則是對左設限及區間設限分別以所在區間之中點代入，稱其為中點估計法，再求算模式中的參數估計值（MDE）。並對此兩種估計方法進行比較。模擬結果顯示，相當地大樣本之下，最大概似估計法在許多情況均優於中點估計法；而在樣本少、危險率為平穩或接近平穩且區間設限比率約為0.5時，中點估計法是可被推薦的。而且，本論文亦提出對設限及截斷資料的Weibull模式之適合度檢驗程序。 / The proportional hazards regression model is most commonly used model for lifetime data. The Weibull model is the only parametric model which has both a proportional hazards representation and an accelerated failure-time representation. This paper studies the use of a Weibull-based proportional hazards regression model when any censored and truncated data are observed. Two alternative methods of analysis are considered. First, the maximum likelihood estimates（MLEs） of parameters are computed for the observed censoring and truncation pattern. Second, the estimates where midpoints are substituted for left- and interval-censored data（midpoint estimation, MDE）are computed. Then, MLEs are compared with MDEs. Simulation studies indicate that for relative large samples there are many instances when the MLE is superior to the MDE. For small samples where the hazard rate is flat or nearly so, and the percentage of interval-censored data is nearly half of samples, the MDE is adequate. Also, an evaluation of the adequacy of the Weibull model for any censored and truncated data is proposed.

中華民國第十任總統選舉結果於民國八十九年三月十八日揭曉，這場眾所矚目的選舉終告落幕，然而對選舉研究工作者而言卻是新的開始。選舉預測居選戰中重要的一環，也是研究選舉的學者關心的問題，更提供了一個驗證選民投票行為理論的絕佳機會，近來國內相關論述已有相當成果。但由於它在投票結束，便有答案，其挑戰程度不言而喻。因此，如何結合理論、方法及事實三者為一體的努力，對選舉預測更是別具意義。 本篇研究之範圍，是以公元2000年總統大選為例，對選舉預測工作做更深層的探討，且檢驗邏輯斯預測模型（Logistic Regression Model）及模糊統計（Fuzzy Statistics）分析在本次總統選舉的預測力，考量本次總統選舉中各項可能影響選情的因素，進一步建構選舉預測模式，然而兩種預測模式的初步預測結果並不佳，經過棄保效應的可能性調整後，預測誤差已大幅降低，其中模糊統計（Fuzzy Statistics）分析預測結果經棄保效應調整後，與實際開票結果相當接近，因此與邏輯斯預測模型相較，模糊統計分析的應用對未表態選民投票意向的預測力較佳。一套完整的選舉預測模型研究，應包含問卷設計、抽樣訪問、資料處理、加權除錯、模型設計與預測評估等整套研究流程，然而在本次總統大選中，由於三強激戰，影響選情因素相當複雜，最後此兩種選舉預測模式皆無法獲致精確的預測結果。因此，我們期待選舉預測模型的建構，能突破主客觀環境的侷限，進一步達到「準」與「穩」的要求。 / With the successful staging of the 2000 presidential elections in Taiwan, scholars have been presented with a new opportunity to test their theories. Electoral predictions are an important field within the study of elections and have been among the most keenly studied questions over the past few years. Unlike many other research topics, there is an absolute standard for election predictions: the election results. Thus, combining theory, methodology, and facts to obtain a meaningful result is no simple task. This thesis attempts to predict the 2000 presidential election using both a logistic regression model and a fuzzy statistics model. After constructing models which includes all kinds of different variables that might influence the electoral outcome, we find that neither the logistic regression model nor the fuzzy statistics model is particularly accurate. However, after accounting for the effects of strategic voting, model error decreases dramatically. In particular, after including provisions for strategic voting, the fuzzy statistics model is improved to the point that its predictions are extremely close to the actual outcome. Thus, we show that the fuzzy statistics model is superior to the logistic regression model in analyzing the vote choices of undecided voters. Research on electoral predictions should include such aspects as questionnaire design, sampling, interviewing, data processing, weighting, data cleaning, model design, and evaluation of the prediction. However, because this election featured a particularly intense three way race, the factors affecting the electoral outcome were both numerous and intertwined in complex ways. Unfortunately, it is impossible to evaluate our electoral predictions of the two models precisely. We hope that in the future, election prediction models will be able to break through these environmental limitations and achieve more accurate and stable predictions.

一般而言， 銀行決定貸放與否，除了取決於客戶所提供之擔保品、保證 人之財力大小外， 徵信工作人員憑著自己過去經驗主觀之判定亦是一重 要之影響因素。 然而人為所牽涉之因素過於複雜且多變，若稍不謹慎極 可能犯下極大的錯失。 也因此銀行必須發展一套客觀之信用評估模型來 分析客戶的信用，以求降低放款的風險。而一般國內之銀行信用評估模型 及理論大多以混和行業別為研究對象，且多以財務比率分析為主。 但不 同的產業其財務特性有所差異，因此本研究便試圖以塑膠業建立單一產業 之信用評估模型， 以尋求建立更適合之信用評估模型。本研究首先根據 國內外文獻中整理出可供研究之若干財務變數， 再參酌目前銀行所使用 作為徵信評估之財務變數， 由於本模式是採本國塑膠業之資料， 且應用 對象亦主要針對本國銀行，故決定採用目前省屬行庫做徵信評估時所採行 的 17 個財務變數做分析。而後再以塑膠加工業為研究對象， 蒐集民國 79 年至 81 年三十家違約公司與五十七家履約公司共八十七家公司的財 務報表資料以計算其財務比率， 接著便計算此 17 個財務變數是否符合 常態分配之假設，以決定後續所採行之統計方法應為何。 另外根據因素 分析與不採用因素分析分別進行變數之選擇及相關性之分析，以尋找具有 解釋能力之財務變數。 最後以上述所得到之財務變數做自變數， 並將樣 本區分為原始樣本、預測樣本以及全體樣本兩群分別建立 Logit 迴歸模 型，以得到不同分析方法之總正確率、型一誤差、型二誤差及加權效率性 。 爾後再根據結果做較佳模式之選擇與評估，並加以解釋。根據實證結 果顯示， 依不同樣本及不同方法所建立的四個放款信用評估模型中， 經 比較其總正確率及加權效率性的高低後，採用因素分析的模型將優於不採 用因素分析的模型， 而全體樣本所建立的模型會優於原始樣本所建立的 模型。 而由此所得到最佳的信用評估模型為以全體樣本採用因素分析所 得的模型。另外， 本研究是以塑膠業單一產業為研究對象來建立信用評 估模型，與過去採混和產業別的分析有所不同。 而與過去的分析相較後 ，得知其正確區別效果確實較混和產業別所建立的模型為佳。

台灣的經濟發展，仰賴對外貿易甚鉅。廠商如何因應匯率的變動，在國際競爭激烈的貿易市場中策略性的定價以取得優勢，一直是國際貿易與金融發展上重要的議題。因此，本論文包括三篇文章，依序透過台灣進口物價、出口物價，以及人造纖維梭織布的出口價格，探討匯率轉嫁與市場取價的相關議題。以下就每篇文章的重點摘要如下。 第一篇主要驗證「菜單成本」(menu costs) 存在，所產生之不對稱匯率轉嫁行為。由於菜單成本的存在，出口商必須在調價所產生的菜單成本，以及不調價對其市場競爭力的減損中，進行權衡取捨(trade-off)。我們首先透過模型推導，說明在此情況下，出口商唯有在匯率變動超過某一水準（門檻）時， 才會因應匯率變動進行調價。這意謂若匯率波動幅度較小時，出口商囿於菜單成本不會調整價格，進口國將面臨完全匯率轉嫁；而若匯率變動幅度夠大，出口商才會調整價格以維持其市場競爭力，而產生不完全匯率轉嫁。為驗證並說明此一不對稱匯率轉嫁現象，我們利用門檻迴歸模型(threshold regression model)進行台灣進口品是否有不對稱轉嫁之實證分析。結果顯示，以匯率變動幅度為門檻變數下，當匯率變動幅度小於門檻值3%時，匯率轉嫁程度高達58.7%;而匯率變動幅度高於門檻值3%時，則無顯著之匯率轉嫁。 我們因此認為菜單成本的存在，確實可能導致匯率不對稱轉嫁行為。 第二篇則應用門檻迴歸模型檢驗台灣出口物價是否因菜單成本導致在匯率變動幅度不同時，產生不同程度調整加成的出口定價行為，導致不對稱匯率轉嫁。 實證結果顯示，當匯率變動幅度低於門檻2.5%時，調整出口價格的幅度為27%。反之，當匯率變動幅度超過門檻值時，相較於前者，調價幅度增加至42%。經檢定兩者有顯著差異，證實有不對稱匯率轉嫁。上述不對稱匯率轉嫁的實證結果與理論預期並未完全相符。我們認為可能的原因在於出口商考量當期市佔率對未來利潤的潛在影響力，因此即使當期匯率變動幅度小，仍選擇微幅調價，藉以維持市場優勢與價格競爭力。亦即菜單成本可能並非影響其定價行為的關鍵因素。此外，廠商也有可能考量其在短期無法立即因應需求而擴張產能，因此即使匯率變動幅度小，仍選擇調價穩定進口價格，如此可避免因產能不足無法接單而流失客戶。再者，受限於資料的取得，我們採用總體出口物價資料，因此僅能呈現出平均的定價行為，而無法凸顯個別產業的出口定價行為。上述皆有可能是造成理論預期與實證結果不完全一致的原因。 為修正前兩篇使用總體資料的缺點，並進一步瞭解出口商因應匯率變動時是否依不同目標市場決定不同的調整加成幅度，在第三篇中本文使用人造纖維梭織布產業資料，主要探討在不完全競爭市場的結構下，出口商面對匯率變動時的「市場取價」行為。由於紡織業為台灣創匯產業，早期以出口胚布和成衣服飾品為主。到1980年代以後，逐漸地轉為以出口紗與成品布為主。在2005年全面取消全球紡織品配額後，紡織業的競爭更加激烈。儘管台灣有許多紡織廠外移至大陸及東南亞國家生產，使得台灣布料的出口額逐年減少。然而，台灣的人造纖維梭織布的出口單價卻有上升的趨勢。因此，本文主要探討台灣自1999年至2009年，人造纖維梭織布出口至美國、中國、香港及印尼等前四大出口目的國，因應匯率變動的出口定價行為是否具有市場取價的特性。此研究有助於我們瞭解產業競爭的過程與廠商的定價行為。實證結果顯示，台灣人纖梭織布的出口有市場取價的能力。對於出口至美國及香港的人纖梭織布，出口商會因應匯率等比例調整加成，自行吸收匯率變動對進口價格的影響，以穩定進口價格(即 local currency pricing stability)。對於出口至中國及印尼的人纖梭織布，則未有明顯的證據支持類似的調價行為。

<p>Small firms often have inadequate access to the capital necessary for sucessful management. The Swedish Government introduced in the mid-1990s allowance rules that facilitate retention of profit for sole proprietorships and partnership firms. The tax credits arising from the allowances give certain benefits as a source of financing compared to traditional forms of credits. Among the more essential benefits are that the payment for some parts of the tax credit can be put on hold almost indefinitely, or alternatively never be paid. The firms are free to use these means, and the responsibility of future payment of the postponed tax debt stays with the individual firms. The comprehensive purpose of the dissertation may be stated as to increase the understanding of small Swedish firms, especially sole proprietorships, utilizing possibilities for allowances for income smoothing and internal financing. At the beginning the dissertation describes case studies, comprising a smaller selection of microfirms. With a starting-point from the accounted and reported income-tax returns, alternative calculations are made where additional positive tax and finance effects appear possible to obtain. One purpose of these studies is to increase the insight regarding the possibilities of income smoothing and internal financing that arise from utilizing these allowances. </p><p>These studies also illuminate, to what extent and in what way they are being used in reality. Another objective of these studies is to give a more substantive insight into the technics behind the different allowances, appropriation to positive or negative interest rate allocation appropriation or dissolving of tax allocation reserve appropriation or dissolving of “expansion fund” Theories regarding the creation of resources, through building of capital, and theories on financial planning and strategy are studied. The purpose is to find support for the choice of theoretical grounded underlying independent variables that can be used in cross-sectional studies to explain the use of the possibilities of appropriations. Theories of finance that are of greatest interest, in the operationalisation of these variables, are theories that discuss the choices of different financing alternatives for small firms. The “pecking order theory”, describes the firm’s order of priority when choices of finance alternatives are made. The concept of “financial bootstrapping” expands the frame for different forms of financing choices that especially very small firms have at their disposal.</p><p>The last part of the theoretical frame deals with the phenomenon of “income smoothing,” which can be translated as leveling out profits/losses. A number of financial and non-financial variables are supported by and operationalised from these financial theories e.g., return on sales, capital turnover, quick ratio and debt-to-equity ratio, respectively age, gender and line of business. Cross-sectional studies are implemented for the taxation years of 1996 and 1999, on databases that have been extracted from Statistics Sweden. The group of 87,276 sole proprietorships included in the study were required to complete tax returns and pay taxes for the business activity according to the supporting schedule, N2, information from the sole proprietorships’ income statement and balance sheet in an accounting statement that comes with the income tax return form. The possibilities of allowances are considered as dependent variables. The intention of the cross-sectional studies is to survey and describe the utilization of possible allowances, with the support of the financial and non-financial independent variables. The connection of these variables to the decision of sole proprietorships to appropriate to the tax allocation reserve is also summarized in a logistic regression model. A number of theoretically based propositions are made for the purpose of observing how the variables are connected to the chances that sole proprietorships actually appropriate to this form of allowance. Appropriation to the tax allocation reserve stands out as the most practiced form of allowance. The studies also clarify that utilization varies among different forms of allowances, but that not all firms that have the prerequisites to utilize the possibilities really do so to the full. A further utilization of the different possibilities of allowances is often conceivable. For the sole proprietorships that are not utilizing these possibilities, the allowances should be considered eligible as a contribution to internal financing and to increase access to capital.</p>

Small firms often have inadequate access to the capital necessary for sucessful management. The Swedish Government introduced in the mid-1990s allowance rules that facilitate retention of profit for sole proprietorships and partnership firms. The tax credits arising from the allowances give certain benefits as a source of financing compared to traditional forms of credits. Among the more essential benefits are that the payment for some parts of the tax credit can be put on hold almost indefinitely, or alternatively never be paid. The firms are free to use these means, and the responsibility of future payment of the postponed tax debt stays with the individual firms. The comprehensive purpose of the dissertation may be stated as to increase the understanding of small Swedish firms, especially sole proprietorships, utilizing possibilities for allowances for income smoothing and internal financing. At the beginning the dissertation describes case studies, comprising a smaller selection of microfirms. With a starting-point from the accounted and reported income-tax returns, alternative calculations are made where additional positive tax and finance effects appear possible to obtain. One purpose of these studies is to increase the insight regarding the possibilities of income smoothing and internal financing that arise from utilizing these allowances. These studies also illuminate, to what extent and in what way they are being used in reality. Another objective of these studies is to give a more substantive insight into the technics behind the different allowances, appropriation to positive or negative interest rate allocation appropriation or dissolving of tax allocation reserve appropriation or dissolving of “expansion fund” Theories regarding the creation of resources, through building of capital, and theories on financial planning and strategy are studied. The purpose is to find support for the choice of theoretical grounded underlying independent variables that can be used in cross-sectional studies to explain the use of the possibilities of appropriations. Theories of finance that are of greatest interest, in the operationalisation of these variables, are theories that discuss the choices of different financing alternatives for small firms. The “pecking order theory”, describes the firm’s order of priority when choices of finance alternatives are made. The concept of “financial bootstrapping” expands the frame for different forms of financing choices that especially very small firms have at their disposal. The last part of the theoretical frame deals with the phenomenon of “income smoothing,” which can be translated as leveling out profits/losses. A number of financial and non-financial variables are supported by and operationalised from these financial theories e.g., return on sales, capital turnover, quick ratio and debt-to-equity ratio, respectively age, gender and line of business. Cross-sectional studies are implemented for the taxation years of 1996 and 1999, on databases that have been extracted from Statistics Sweden. The group of 87,276 sole proprietorships included in the study were required to complete tax returns and pay taxes for the business activity according to the supporting schedule, N2, information from the sole proprietorships’ income statement and balance sheet in an accounting statement that comes with the income tax return form. The possibilities of allowances are considered as dependent variables. The intention of the cross-sectional studies is to survey and describe the utilization of possible allowances, with the support of the financial and non-financial independent variables. The connection of these variables to the decision of sole proprietorships to appropriate to the tax allocation reserve is also summarized in a logistic regression model. A number of theoretically based propositions are made for the purpose of observing how the variables are connected to the chances that sole proprietorships actually appropriate to this form of allowance. Appropriation to the tax allocation reserve stands out as the most practiced form of allowance. The studies also clarify that utilization varies among different forms of allowances, but that not all firms that have the prerequisites to utilize the possibilities really do so to the full. A further utilization of the different possibilities of allowances is often conceivable. For the sole proprietorships that are not utilizing these possibilities, the allowances should be considered eligible as a contribution to internal financing and to increase access to capital.

Family-centered care (FCC) focuses on considering the family in planning/implementing care and is associated with increased patient satisfaction. Little is known about factors that influence FCC. Using linear mixed modeling and Generalized Estimating Equations to analyze data from a cross-sectional survey of primary care practices in Ontario, this study sought to determine whether models of primary care service delivery differ in their provision of FCC and to identify characteristics of primary care practices associated with FCC. Patient-reported scores of FCC were high, but did not differ significantly among primary care models. After accounting for patient characteristics, practice characteristics were not significantly associated with patient-reported FCC. Provider-reported scores of FCC were significantly higher in Community Health Centres than in Family Health Networks. Higher numbers of nurse practitioners and clinical services on site were associated with higher FCC scores but scores decreased as the number of family physicians at a site increased.

<p>The main objective of this study was to identify ways in which transaction costs can be lowered to improve small-scale farmers&rsquo / participation in and returns from agricultural output markets, with specific reference to small-scale mango farmers in Limpopo province. This study hypothesizes that transaction costs are lower in informal spot markets and increase when small-scale farmers sell in more structured markets (formal markets). This study builds on transaction cost economics (TCE) to demonstrate how to overcome transaction cost barriers that small-scale mango farmers face in the agro-food markets. The approach to collect primary information was sequenced in two steps: first, key informant and focus group interviews were conducted and, secondly, a structured survey instrument was administered in two districts of Limpopo. A total of 235 smallscale mango farmers were interviewed. A binary logistic regression model was used to estimate the impact of transaction costs on the likelihood of households&rsquo / participation in formal (=1) and informal (=0) agro-food markets. STATA Version 10 was used to analyse the data. This study found that a larger proportion of male than female farming households reported participation in the formal markets, suggesting deep-seated gender differentiation in market participation. The average age of small farmers participating in formal markets is 52, compared to 44 for those in informal markets, implying that older farmers might have established stronger networks and acquired experience over a longer period. Farmers staying very far from the densely populated towns (more than 50 km) participate less in the formal markets than those staying closer (0 &ndash / 25 km and 26 &ndash / 49 km), which implies that the further they are from the towns, the less the likelihood of farmers selling in the formal markets. Farmers who own storage facilities and a bakkie (transportation means) participate more in formal markets compared to those who do not own these assets, which suggests that these farmers are able to store mangoes, retaining their freshness and subsequently delivering them to various agro-food markets on time. Households that participate in formal markets have high mean values of income and social grants. However, this study found that the likelihood of a household&rsquo / s participation in the markets is less as income and social grants increase. This suggests that households do not invest their financial assets in order to overcome market access barriers. A large proportion of households that own larger pieces of arable land participate in the formal markets, which implies that they are able to produce marketable surplus. Households that have a high mean value (in Rand) of cattle participate more in formal markets than in informal markets. However, this study found that the likelihood of a household&rsquo / s participation in the markets does not change with an increase in the value of its livestock. These findings suggest that households do not sell their cattle in order to overcome market access barriers. Reduced transaction costs for small-scale mango farmers in Limpopo should improve their participation in and returns from the agro-food markets. Policy interventions to support this need to focus on: access to storage and transportation facilities, enforcement of gender equity requirements in existing policies, and better access to information about markets.</p>

This thesis studies the Second-order Least Squares (SLS) estimation method in regression models with and without measurement error. Applications of the methodology in general quasi-likelihood and variance function models, censored models, and linear and generalized linear models are examined and strong consistency and asymptotic normality are established. To overcome the numerical difficulties of minimizing an objective function that involves multiple integrals, a simulation-based SLS estimator is used and its asymptotic properties are studied. Finite sample performances of the estimators in all of the studied models are investigated through simulation studies. / February 2009

Family-centered care (FCC) focuses on considering the family in planning/implementing care and is associated with increased patient satisfaction. Little is known about factors that influence FCC. Using linear mixed modeling and Generalized Estimating Equations to analyze data from a cross-sectional survey of primary care practices in Ontario, this study sought to determine whether models of primary care service delivery differ in their provision of FCC and to identify characteristics of primary care practices associated with FCC. Patient-reported scores of FCC were high, but did not differ significantly among primary care models. After accounting for patient characteristics, practice characteristics were not significantly associated with patient-reported FCC. Provider-reported scores of FCC were significantly higher in Community Health Centres than in Family Health Networks. Higher numbers of nurse practitioners and clinical services on site were associated with higher FCC scores but scores decreased as the number of family physicians at a site increased.