Le projet général dans lequel s'inscrit ce travail vise à développer un outil de modélisation permettant de mieux comprendre et quantifier la circulation de l'eau et de produits phytosanitaires à l'échelle de petits bassins versants ruraux, en prenant notamment en compte l'influence d'aménagements hydro-agricoles ou paysagers (tels que le drainage agricole par tuyaux enterrés, les fossés, le réseau bocager ou les bandes enherbées) sur la qualité de l'eau.En s'appuyant sur le cas d'étude du bassin versant de la Fontaine du Theil (Ille et Vilaine), on a mis en oeuvre une démarche de modélisation hydrologique distribuée fondée sur la représentation des différents aménagements sous forme de modules autonomes et connectés entre eux selon leur positionnement dans l'espace, en s'appuyant sur la plate-forme de modélisation environnementale LIQUID. On a ainsi construit et testé à l'échelle locale deux modules spécifiques représentant de manière simplifiée : le fonctionnement d'une parcelle drainée, incluant les transferts de pesticides,ainsi que le fonctionnement hydrodynamique d'une haie bocagère. On les a ensuite couplés de façon très simple à des modules existant par ailleurs dans LIQUID pour obtenir un modèle hydrologique distribué, qui a été appliqué sur une partie du bassin versant de la Fontaine du Theil (sans solutés).Les résultats sont pour l'instant très sommaires mais montrent un bon fonctionnement du couplage entre ces différents modules et apportent depremiers éléments qualitatifs de validation sur le comportement des haies vis-à-vis des flux souterrains. Ils sont encourageants quant à la possibilité, à travers cette approche, de représenter les interactions entre processus dominants et ainsi de faire progresser la connaissance sur les voies de contamination majeures à l'échelle du bassin. La plate-forme LIQUID, en permettant de construire des modules de conceptions différentes et de lesfaire communiquer dans un même modèle de façon cohérente et conforme à la physique, se révèle bien adaptée.

This study provides ex ante estimates of multi factor productivity (MFP) growth in the Saskatchewan agricultural sector on a crop by crop basis, using a time series of partial budgets from representative crop planning Guide. The study considers six major crops in Saskatchewan: spring wheat, durum wheat, feed barley, feed peas, large green lentils and canola. MFP growth is compared across crops, soil zones and cropping systems. Over the 1993-2013 period all six crops MFP grew at rates of over 2.56% per year. Feed peas and canola showed the fastest growth rates of 4.68% and 4.01%, respectively. The MFP growth of crops seeded on summer-fallow was slower than crops seeded into stubble using conventional tillage and zero tillage. The best soil zone for durum wheat and lentils, in term of productivity growth, was the Brown Soil zone; while for peas and canola, it is the Dark Brown Soil zone. Spring wheat and barley grown in different soil zones had very similar productivity gains.

Utiliza-se o método de decomposições do índice Theil-L para encontrar determinantes da desigualdade de desempenho escolar das crianças da 4ª série do ensino fundamental do estado de São Paulo. Os dados de proficiência dos alunos em português e matemática são extraídos da Prova Brasil 2005 e combinados com os dados do Censo Escolar 2005. A análise das contribuições brutas e marginais geradas por meio do índice Theil L mostra que variáveis comumente utilizadas como medidas de background sócioeconômico dos alunos explicam pouco da desigualdade das notas, menos de 2%. Ao mesmo tempo, as contribuições brutas e marginais apontam para a importância significativa das escolas, que explicam 14,58% da desigualdade de desempenho dos alunos em matemática e 13,27% do desempenho dos alunos em português. A única variável que explica significativamente a desigualdade entre as escolas é o município, 14,56% da desigualdade em matemática e 13,98% em português. As demais variáveis quando consideradas isoladamente, respondem por menos de 2,5% da desigualdade. Quando tomadas em grupos, seu poder explicativo aumenta. As variáveis de infraestrutura escolar explicam 18,68% da desigualdade entre as escolas em português e 20% da desigualdade em matemática. As variáveis referentes ao background dos colegas respondem respectivamente por 8,79 e 9,40%. Conclui-se que o impacto das diferentes variáveis no desempenho dos alunos se dá por meio de sua interação mais do que pelo efeito de variáveis específicas. Reitera-se também a importância de se entender o impacto dos insumos escolares para compreender a proficiência dos alunos. O trabalho aponta ainda o efeito que os municípios têm sobre as escolas e oferece base para uma melhor compreensão posterior desse fenômeno. / This research uses the method of Theil-L decomposition to find determinants of the inequality among students scores of the 4th grade of the fundamental school in the state of São Paulo. The data is provided by a combination of Prova Brasil 2005 standardized tests and the Censo Escolar 2005. The analysis of the gross and marginal contributions measured by the Theil-L indez indicates that the variables normally used for students social and economic background give few explanation about the total inequality measured. The analysis of the decompositions also shows that schools play a main role in the inequalities among students, explaining 14,58% of the students inequality in math and 13,27% in Portuguese. The only single variable that shows an important impact in the score inequalities among schools is the municipality, 14,56% for math and 13,98% for Portuguese. The other variables have no impact over 2,5% when considered solely. By the other side, when these variables are considered in groups, there is a gain in explanation. The school infra-structure explain 18,68% of the inequality among schools in Portuguese and 20% of the inequality in math. The variables about the peers background are responsible for 8,79 and 9,40% respectively. It is concluded that the impact of differents variables in students learning are more due to their interaction, than by their direct effects. It is reinforced the importance of a better understanding of school variables to understand children apprenticeship as shown by part of the literature. This research points to the importance of municipalities for schools and gives a basis for further discussion on this matter.

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This master thesis aims to find out the socio-economic factors, which most affect the level of income inequality in society. The aim is to quantify the contribution of each social groups to the overall income defferentiation by decomposition of some income inequality indicators. The thesis is focused on a group of people based on their social status in society and their level of education, and so it is determined in relation the social background and income level. Income distribution strongly affects the value of risk-of poverty, and therefore this thesis put emphasis on the relationship between income inequality and poverty rate of each group. Development of various indicators measuring income inequality provides a comprehensive overview of the situation of income differentiation in the Czech Republic and also indicates the trend for income distribution in the last period.

Dans le contexte actuel d'urgence environnementale, la consommation de carburant dans le secteur du transport routier, vu son impact négatif sur l'environnement et son rôle socioéconomique, doit évoluer dans une logique de durabilité. Nous initions notre travail de thèse par une approche comparative de 90 pays quant à leur intensité énergétique et leur intensité de CO2 dans le transport routier durant la période 1980-2010. En calculant le coefficient de Theil, nos résultats empiriques mettent en évidence l'existence d'une disparité spatiale et temporelle. En 2010, la Tunisie occupe le 48ème rang et le 38ème rang, respectivement en terme d'efficiences énergétique et environnementale. Elle a une performance énergétique moyenne tout en occupant le 34ème rang selon l'indice général de performance énergétique. Dans une deuxième partie, nous adoptions la démarche de modélisation conceptuelle dont l'objectif est la construction des indicateurs du transport routier énergétique durable. La définition d'un tel indicateur économique est confronté au problème de mesure de la valeur ajoutée réelle de ce secteur du transport. Par l'intermédiaire de l'approche de filtre de Kalman, nous pouvons conclure que la valeur ajoutée de transport informel est d'environ 61% de total de valeur ajoutée de secteur de transport durant la période 1980-2010 en Tunisie. Enfin, nous procédons à une modélisation économétrique des interactions entre les indicateurs de transport routier énergétiquement durable en Tunisie. L'étude de la dynamique des relations causales entre la consommation du carburant dans le transport routier, les émissions de CO2 dus au secteur de transport, la valeur ajoutée réelle de secteur du transport, le prix moyen du carburant, la longueur de l'infrastructure routière et le taux de motorisation se base sur la technique de cointégration de Johansen et le modèle de la Courbe Environnementale de Kuznets (CEK). Les résultats empiriques confirment, d'une part, l'hypothèse de neutralité entre la consommation de carburant et la valeur ajoutée réelle de secteur de transport et, d'autre part, l'hypothèse de CEK stipulant une relation en U-inversée entre les émissions de CO2 et la croissance économique du secteur du transport. Aussi, nous mettons en exergue une relation de causalité unidirectionnelle au sens de Granger allant de prix de carburant vers la consommation du carburant à court terme. Dans ce sens, en utilisant la technique de décomposition de prix, les résultats infirment l'hypothèse d'asymétrie de l'effet de prix sur la consommation de carburant. Avec la prise en compte de facteur technologique, nous estimons l'effet de rebond à l'ordre de 18% à court terme et 51% à long terme. En termes d'implications politiques, ce travail de thèse montre l'importance d'adopter des politiques publiques transversales où la question énergétique du transport routier est résolue en adéquation avec l'offre infrastructurel, la politique de prix de carburant, le droit à la mobilité individuelle et la protection de l'environnement. Une combinaison optimale entre divers instruments fiscal, économique et de régulation parait la meilleure stratégie pour atteindre un tel objectif. Le rôle de la gouvernance énergétique est central pour concevoir et opérationnaliser toute politique de transport routier énergétiquement durable. / As global concern about climate increases, road transport energy consumption, given its impact on the environment and its socio-economic role, must evolve to sustainability logic. First, the present work provides an international comparison of the energy intensity and the CO2 intensity in road transport for a group of 90 countries oer the period 1980-2010. Through the calculated Theil coefficient, our empirical findings highlight the existence of spatial and temporal disparities between coustries. In 2010, Tunisia occupies the 48th and the 38th rank respectively in terms of energy and environmental efficiency.Based on a general index of energy performance in the road transport sector, it is deemed to have a medium energy performance by occupying the 34th rank. Secondly, through the adoption of conceptual modeling approach, several indicators for sustainable energy development in road transport sector are constructed. To measure the real transport value added, we used filter Kalman approach. We denote that the informal transport value added is about 61% during the period 1980-2010.Finally, this thesis studies causal mechanisms between indicators for sustainable energy development related to energy consumption from Tunisian road transport sector. The investigation is made using the Johansen cointegration technique and the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) approach. It examines the nexus between real transport value added , road transport-related energy consumption, road infrastructure, fuel price, rate of motorization and CO2 emissions from Tunisian transport sector during the same period. Empirical results support the hypothesis of neutrality between energy and income for Tunisian road transport sector, and the hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped EKC for transport CO2 emissions. Also, there is a unidirectional Granger causality running from fuel price to road transport-related energy consumption with no feedback in the short run. In this sense, using price decomposition technique, we refute asymmetric fuel price effect hypothesis. By the introducing of the technological factor, the rebound effect is about 18% in the short run and 51% in the long run. The study shows the importance if enhancing a number of policies for the road transport system through the joint improvement of the fuel price policy, of the road infrastructure policy and of the road vehicles policy. The optimal combination of fiscal, economic and regulatory instruments is the main strategy to achieve these objectives. The energetic governance is necessary in order to maintain sustainable energy road transport.

Die vorliegende Untersuchung arbeitet die wesentlichen gesellschaftspolitischen und ökonomischen Entwicklungslinien heraus, die sich während der geschichtlichen Umbruchphase um 1830 im deutschen Raum aus dem letzten Akt von Goethes Faust II ableiten lassen. Tiefgreifende politische, wirtschaftlich-technische und kulturelle Umwälzungen zu Beginn des 19. Jahrhunderts wirkten auf Goethe als Zeitgenossen ein und wurden von ihm in seinem literarischen Spätwerk verarbeitet. Aus Goethes Alterswerk Faust II heraus lassen sich Konstanten und Entwicklungen seiner Zeit sichtbar machen und, immer eingebettet in den zeitgeschichtlichen Kontext, konkret nachweisen. Diese Ausarbeitung will aufzeigen, dass Goethe im letzten Akt von Faust II einen sich zu Beginn des 19. Jahrhunderts vollziehenden – und teils bereits vollzogenen - Wandel der menschlichen Geisteshaltung attestiert. Säkularisierung und zweckorientierte Rationalität, Beschleunigung, Enthumanisierung und Unterwerfung von Mensch und Natur stehen hierbei im Mittelpunkt. Fausts aus seinem Pakt mit dem Teufel entstandene Welt nimmt die uns heute umgebende vorweg, die geprägt ist von Datenflut, elektronischen Medien, einer von Alltagshektik geprägten Realität und systemimmanenten Expansionsstreben. Allein dies verleiht dem Drama ein unübersehbar hohes Gegenwartspotential. / This thesis explores the trends of socio-political developments during the period of historical changes in Germany around 1830 that can be deduced from Act V of Goethe´s Faust II. Profound political, technical, economic and cultural changes at the beginning of the nineteenth century had an impact on Goethe as a contemporary and appear in his late literary work. Thus specific constants and developments of his time are also presented in and can be deduced from one of the great literary works of the aged poet, Faust II. This paper shows that the final act of Faust II Goethe reveals profound changes in human mentality that took place at the beginning of the nineteenth century and partly even before: Secularization and ruthless rationality with a tendency to acceleration, de-humanization and unscrupulous submission of human beings and nature. The world that originated from Faust´s pact with the devil in Faust II anticipates the reality surrounding us nowadays, a reality characterized by a flood of data, electronic media and the hectic pace of everyday life, - a fact vouching for the play´s striking modernity. / Classics & World Languages / M.A. (German)

Die vorliegende Untersuchung arbeitet die wesentlichen gesellschaftspolitischen und ökonomischen Entwicklungslinien heraus, die sich während der geschichtlichen Umbruchphase um 1830 im deutschen Raum aus dem letzten Akt von Goethes Faust II ableiten lassen. Tiefgreifende politische, wirtschaftlich-technische und kulturelle Umwälzungen zu Beginn des 19. Jahrhunderts wirkten auf Goethe als Zeitgenossen ein und wurden von ihm in seinem literarischen Spätwerk verarbeitet. Aus Goethes Alterswerk Faust II heraus lassen sich Konstanten und Entwicklungen seiner Zeit sichtbar machen und, immer eingebettet in den zeitgeschichtlichen Kontext, konkret nachweisen. Diese Ausarbeitung will aufzeigen, dass Goethe im letzten Akt von Faust II einen sich zu Beginn des 19. Jahrhunderts vollziehenden – und teils bereits vollzogenen - Wandel der menschlichen Geisteshaltung attestiert. Säkularisierung und zweckorientierte Rationalität, Beschleunigung, Enthumanisierung und Unterwerfung von Mensch und Natur stehen hierbei im Mittelpunkt. Fausts aus seinem Pakt mit dem Teufel entstandene Welt nimmt die uns heute umgebende vorweg, die geprägt ist von Datenflut, elektronischen Medien, einer von Alltagshektik geprägten Realität und systemimmanenten Expansionsstreben. Allein dies verleiht dem Drama ein unübersehbar hohes Gegenwartspotential. / This thesis explores the trends of socio-political developments during the period of historical changes in Germany around 1830 that can be deduced from Act V of Goethe´s Faust II. Profound political, technical, economic and cultural changes at the beginning of the nineteenth century had an impact on Goethe as a contemporary and appear in his late literary work. Thus specific constants and developments of his time are also presented in and can be deduced from one of the great literary works of the aged poet, Faust II. This paper shows that the final act of Faust II Goethe reveals profound changes in human mentality that took place at the beginning of the nineteenth century and partly even before: Secularization and ruthless rationality with a tendency to acceleration, de-humanization and unscrupulous submission of human beings and nature. The world that originated from Faust´s pact with the devil in Faust II anticipates the reality surrounding us nowadays, a reality characterized by a flood of data, electronic media and the hectic pace of everyday life, - a fact vouching for the play´s striking modernity. / Classics and World Languages / M.A. (German)

Abstract The steel industry has been known as 'The mother of all industries '. With the emerging incidents such as Asian financial meltdown, industrialization of the China, and the policy of macro economic controls by the China government, the stock index of the steel industry has fluctuated violently. Despite the economy of China is to be adjusted upwards, in the foreseen future, the global steel supply will be probably exceed the demand. Such phenomenon definitely causes the pressure on the market that it also attracts much attention of the relevant stockholders. Current research investigates the most suitable model for valuating the stock price of the steel industry that would provide valuating methods to the corporate management and investors for decision making and investment. This research has studied 19 companies of steel industry of Taiwan listing companies with 6 approaches including the ¡¥Discounted Free Cash Flow Models¡¦, ¡¥Price to Earning Ratio¡¦, ¡¥Price to EBITDA Ratio¡¦, ¡¥Price to Sales Ratio¡¦, ¡¥Price to Book Value Ratio¡¦ and ¡¥Edwards-Bell-Ohlson Model¡¦ to valuate their reasonable intrinsic value from 2000 to 2005. The test of Theil¡¦s U is then applied to evaluate the approaches in order to justify the best valuation model. This study indicates the following results¡GThe Price to Book Value Ratio is the best valuation model since its smallest Theil¡¦s U value. The Price to Earning Ratio is the most unsuitable model for this evaluation purpose with a highest Theil¡¦s U value.

近年來由於亞洲金融風暴的肆虐，產生經濟不景氣，使得失業的問題逐漸受到社會所關注，本論文企圖以三個時間序列方法：1.單變量ARIMA模型；2.轉換函數(TF)模型；3.向量自迴歸(VAR)模型來建立台灣地區的失業率時間序列預測模型。資料則是利用台灣地區民國75年1月至民國87年12月的失業率月資料作實證預測分析，為了知道資料是否來自時間趨勢模型，測試是否經過差分消掉一部份的記憶會發生預測的誤差，所以先以多步(multi-step)預測和一步(one-step)預測的方法計算出民國88年1月至88年12月預測值，而預測評估準則則採用(1)MAPE、RMSPE、MPE及泰爾不等係數(THEIL)；(2)變化方向誤差與趨勢變化誤差兩大方向來做預測比較。最後將算出的12期預測值與行政院主計處整體統計資料庫中所得到的失業率實際值利用預測評估準則做比較，結果發現一步預測法較多步預測法準確；而向量自迴歸模型(VAR)在大部份的預測期數上有較小的MAPE、RMSPE、MPE及THEIL值，因為此VAR模型考慮了在變數之間的共整合現象，有助於模型的預測，所以有較好預測的能力；反而是較複雜的ARIMA模型及轉換模型預測能力稍差一點。 / In this thesis, we plan to construct three time series models to forecast the Taiwan unemployment Rate. These time series models are ARIMA model、transfer function (TF) model and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The data set consists of monthly observations for the period 75:1-87:12 for unemployment rate. We want to know if the data came from time trend model. First, we use multi-step forecasting and one-step forecasting to calculate 12 forecasted values from 88:01-88:12. Then We compare the prediction performance of these two methods by using：(1) MAPE、RMSPE、MPE and Theil’s Inequality Coefficient (THEIL)；(2) Direction of Change Error and trend Change Error etc. It is found that one-step forecasting is more correct than multi-step forecasting and the forecasting performance of VAR model is improved by explicitly taking account of cointegration between the variables in the model，so VAR model has lower MAPE、RMSPE、MPE and THEIL for most horizons. However，the more parsimonious ARIMA and transfer function models have higher MAPE、RMSPE、MPE for most horizons.