Introduction: The World Health Assembly declared violence as a worldwide public health problem. Homicides have been identified as a leading cause of death in the United States across all age groups. The national homicide rate for 2004 and 2005 are 5.5 and 5.6 per 100,000 population, respectively. The reported rates for Virginia are 5.2 (2004) and 5.6 (2005) per 100,000 population, showing a 16.9% increase. Richmond has been ranked as high as the sixth most dangerous among similar cities in the United States. This study examines penetrating trauma injuries identified through 9-1-1 calls as an indicator of the incidence of homicide in Richmond, Virginia. The purpose of this study was to determine if Richmond has become a safer city, with respect to this type of injury over a five year period. Objectives: (1) To determine if the incidence of penetrating trauma has changed significantly over the five year study period. (2) To examine possible trends in descriptive statistics of study variables. (3) To assess trends in the distribution of response location. Methods: This is a retrospective study of data collected from 91 1 calls to Richmond Ambulance Authority in Richmond, Virginia, with a chief complaint of penetrating trauma during the years 2002-2006. Descriptive statistics were completed on all transported patients. Chi-square tests were used to determine trends. GIs was used to spatially examine the distribution of incident locations.Results: There was no significant trend in the incidence by year. Annual distribution of shooting versus stabbings varied significantly over the study period with the proportions of gunshots decreasing while stabbings increased. There was no significant trend in age, gender, number of patients transported or transport protocol over the study period. Level of care varied significantly over the five year period with BLS decreasing while Basic ALS increased. 39% of neighborhoods had no known incidents, while 8% of neighborhoods accounted for 40% of known gunshot and stabbing incidents. Discussion: These findings show that overall, with respect to known penetrating trauma incidents, Richmond has not become much safer over the five year period. A major limitation of this study is that most analyses were completed using only patients transported by the RAA. Future research should examine outcome data to determine if the change in type of penetrating trauma proportions resulted in greater survival rates.

A stylised analytical framework is used to show how the global carbon tax and the amount of untapped fossil fuel can be calculated from a simple rule given estimates of society's rate of time impatience and intergenerational inequality aversion, the extraction cost technology, the rate of technical progress in renewable energy and the future trend rate of economic growth. The predictions of the simple framework are tested in a calibrated numerical and more complex version of the integrated assessment model (IAM). This IAM makes use of the Oxford carbon cycle of Allen et al. (2009), which differs from DICE, FUND and PAGE in that cumulative emissions are the key driving force of changes in temperature. We highlight the importance of the speed and direction of technological change for the energy transition and how time impatience, intergenerational inequality aversion and expected trend growth affect the time paths of the optimal global carbon tax and the optimal amount of fossil fuel reserves to leave untapped. We also compare these with the adverse global warming trajectories that occur if no policy actions are taken.

The Mont Saint-Hilaire alkaline complex, Québec, is a Cretaceous rift-related intrusion comprising two gabbroic suites and the East Hill suite, an assemblage of several distinct nepheline syenites and evolved syenitic rocks. Whole-rock analysis of the East Hill suite reveals two fractionation trends, one which is described by the syenitic lithologies and one by the evolved syenites and syenoids. A lamprophyric unit stands on its own, geochemically, consistent with typical lamprophyre petrogenesis. Whole-rock geochemistry of the East Hill suite shows moderate silica content but highly alkaline rocks, enriched in Mn, Zn, Zr, Y, and Ce. Chlorine and sulfur are important and present in abundant secondary sodalite and pervasive microsulfides. Mineral geochemistry indicates decreasing oxygen fugacity with cooling, and phases such as titanite (present) and aenigmatite (absent) defined boundaries in fO2 – T space. Oxygen fugacity data combined with petrography and geothermometry defined an 2 fO – T curve for the East Hill suite magma, revealing that the oxygen fugacity ranged between approximately 10-10 bar at intrusion down to 10-25 bar subsolidus, and that, owing to non-linearity of oxygen buffers, the 2 fO – T path crossed below QFM early, went above QFM late in the crystallization history and then above HM with cooling. A similar procedure applied to sulfur fugacity generated a trend of initial increase from about 10-4 to 10-2 bar followed by decreasing sulfur fugacity with cooling down to approximately 10-8 bar. The oxygen trend implies that earlier suggestions that oxidation of iron drove the evolution of pyroxenes towards aegirine are incorrect. Textural evidence of abundant alteration and secondary mineralization suggests subsolidus action of alkaline fluids. Contrary to previous studies, most sodalite in the East Hill suite is not primary but is the product of reaction of nepheline with chloride-rich fluids after crystallization. Sodalite pseudomorphs continued to react with these fluids, whose chemistry changed with time to silica- then carbonate-rich, resulting in further reactions that led to natrolite and dawsonite deposition, accompanied by late-stage rhodochrosite. It is hypothesized that the silica- and carbonate-rich phase of these fluids caused the decomposition of a melilite groundmass in the lamprophyre to a natrolite-calcite assemblage.

The target of this thesis is to analyse communication strategy of the best hairstylists on the territory of the Europian Union and Czech Republlic, catch actual communication trends and consequently and to apply them to the example of chosen hairdresser's and recommend some useful way how to communicate. One part of this thesis is a methodology of marketing and communication, that an practical analysis based on.

Objetivos: Analisar a tendência, descrever mudanças no comportamento da doença meningocócica invasiva (DMI) e estimar o impacto da vacina conjugada do meningococo C (VCMC) nas capitais da região Sul do Brasil, no período de 1991 a 2015, assim como, investigar as características sociodemográficas, econômicas e de intervenções tecnológicas associadas aos casos pertencentes a cluster da doença no município de Curitiba (PR), no período de 2001 a 2014. Métodos: As áreas de estudo englobaram as capitais da Região Sul do Brasil: Curitiba (PR), Florianópolis (SC) e Porto Alegre (RS), a população de estudo abrangeu os casos de DMI notificados entre 1991 a 2015 à vigilância da doença e residentes nessas capitais. A definição de caso adotada foi a padronizada pelo Ministério da Saúde. As fontes de dados foram: vigilância da DMI, o Instituto Adolfo Lutz, o Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística e o Instituto de Pesquisa e Planejamento Urbano de Curitiba. A tendência da incidência e mortalidade da DMI foi determinada pelo modelo de regressão polinomial. A intensidade e a direção da relação linear entre a taxa de incidência e os indicadores socioeconômicos, de saúde e sorogrupo foram analisadas pelo coeficiente de correlação de Pearson. O impacto da VCMC foi estimado pela Fração Prevenida na População, comparando as taxas de incidência de 2012 e 2015 com as de 2009. Investigou-se os potenciais fatores associados a casos pertencentes a cluster no período de 2001 a 2014 por meio das estimativas de odds ratio não ajustada e ajustadas pela regressão logística múltipla não condicional, com os respectivos intervalos de confiança de 95%. Resultados: No período de estudo, a DMI apresentou três comportamentos distintos nas capitais da região sul: i) epidêmico na década de 1990, ii) declínio das taxas na década de 2000, antes da introdução da VCMC na rotina de imunização e, iii) estacionário com taxas baixas entre 2011 e 2015, sob a influência da VCMC. Observamos nesses períodos a influência de fatores biológicos, socioeconômicos e de saúde na incidência dessas capitais. No estudo mais detalhado em Curitiba, apresentou-se associado aos casos pertencentes a cluster, ajustados no tempo e pela idade, residir em bairros de baixa renda (OR: 2,3, IC95%:1,1-4,5). O sorogrupo predominante foi o B com 65,4%, seguida pelo C com 24,5% e 8,3% pelo W. Possivelmente, em virtude da baixa incidência do sorogrupo C, não se verificou a redução na incidência total da DMI, nestas capitais. Entretanto, no período posterior a VCMC, os casos pelo sorogrupo C foram raros ou zerados na faixa etária destinada a vacinação em Curitiba e Florianópolis. Em Porto Alegre foram registrados casos pelo sorogrupo C na faixa etária vacinada e o sorogrupo W se destacou. Conclusão: A partir do início desse século houve declínio expressivo da incidência da DMI nas capitais da região Sul do país, antes mesmo da introdução da vacina, aproximando-se das taxas de DMI encontradas em países de elevada renda. Tais resultados são consistentes, com trabalhos que mostram uma associação da DMI com as condições de vida e grau de desenvolvimento das populações. / Objectives: To analyze the trend and describe changes in the epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) and to estimate the impact of the meningococcal conjugate C vaccine (MCCV) in the capitals of the southern region of Brazil, from 1991 to 2015, as well as to investigate the sociodemographic, economic and technological interventions associated to the cases belonging in cluster of the disease in the city of Curitiba (PR), from 2001 to 2014. Methods: The study areas included the capitals of the States of Southern Brazil: Curitiba (PR), Florianópolis (SC) and Porto Alegre (RS), the study population considered cases of IMD reported between 1991 and 2015 to surveillance and residents in these capitals. The IMD case definition adopted was that standardized by the Ministry of Health. The data sources were the surveillance of the IMD, the Adolfo Lutz Institute, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics and the Institute of Research and Urban Planning of Curitiba. The trend of IMD incidence and mortality was determined by the polynomial regression model. The intensity and direction of the linear relationship between the incidence rate and socioeconomic indicators, health and serogroup were analyzed by the Pearson correlation coefficient. The impact of the MCCV was estimated by the Prevented Fraction for the Population comparing the incidence rates of 2012 and 2015 with those of 2009. We investigated the potential factors associated with cases belonging in cluster between 2001 and 2014 by the unadjusted and adjusted odds ratio estimates by the multiple unconditional logistic regression, with the respectives confidence intervals of 95%. Results: Between 1991 and 2015, IMD presented three distinct periods in the capitals of the southern region: i) epidemic in the 1990s, ii) decline in rates from 2000 to 2010, before the introduction of MCCV in immunization routine and (iii) stationary at low rates in 2011 to 2015, under the influence of MCCV. In this period, we observed the influence of biological, socioeconomic and health factors on the incidence of these capitals. In more detailed study in Curitiba, it was associated with cases belonging in cluster, adjusted in time and by age, to live in low-income neighborhoods (OR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.1-4.5). Serogroup B was predominant with 65,4%, followed by C with 24,5% and 8,3% by W. Possibly, due to the low incidence of serogroup C, there was no reduction in the total incidence of IMD in these capitals. However, *in the period after MCCV, serogroup C cases were rare or zero in the age group destinedfor vaccination in Curitiba and Florianópolis. In Porto Alegre, cases were registered by serogroup C in the vaccinated age group and serogroup W was relevant. Conclusion: From the beginning of this century there was a significant decline in the incidence of IMD in the capitals of the southern region of the country, even before the introduction of the vaccine, approaching IMD rates found in high income countries. These results are consistent, with studies showing an association of IMD with living conditions and the degree of population development.

A complexidade de compreensão durante a observação realizada a partir da identificação de um possível quadro de evolução em um sistema climático marcado por uma série temporal longa de uma determinada variável ambiental deve-se ao fato do ambiente sofrer múltiplas interações físico-químicas que naturalmente ocorrem nas escalas global, regional e local. Na intenção de compreender alguns elementos dessa dinâmica foram analisadas algumas hipóteses que podem nos aproximar de possíveis explicações a respeito do contexto que emerge a partir da realidade observada. Neste contexto foi analisada a hipótese de que o ambiente fisicamente alterado pelo homem possa estar influenciado no número de episódios de chuvas nas suas diversas intensidades durante o intervalo de uma hora. A segunda hipótese analisou a possibilidade das alterações em grandes escalas envolvendo às flutuações de temperatura observadas na superfície do mar (TSM) de uma região específica (Niño3.4) localizada no pacífico equatorial possam estar influenciando e/ou intensificando os episódios de chuva em escala local. No entanto, a partir dessas possibilidades o objetivo foi a de analisar através do uso de métodos estatísticos, a partir da aplicação de ajustes e correlações lineares, a identificação de tendências positivas ou negativas, no quadro de cada tipo de chuva e, posteriormente, no quadro das variações de TSM, da região Niño3.4. O segundo procedimento adotado avaliou de uma maneira qualitativa a possibilidade de haver correlações positivas entre os dois ajustes lineares analisados. Os resultados indicaram que a variabilidade climática anual da região Niño3.4 durante a série completa (1970-2009) apresentou um quadro de aquecimento (ajuste positivo). Por outro lado, também foi observado o aquecimento da TSM durante séries específicas da série completa identificadas como fase Neutra, ENOS e La Niña. No entanto, a série especifica relativa à fase El Niño apresentou um comportamento inverso, no caso, um resfriamento na TSM durante o período analisado. Neste caso, foi constatado que o aquecimento anual da TSM da região Niño3.4 ocorre em função do aquecimento observado durante as anomalias negativas (La Niña). O quadro dos ajustes lineares de cada tipo de chuva revelou uma diminuição horária na frequência de chuvas muito fracas (nevoeiros e neblinas), de chuvas fracas (chuviscos e garoas) e de chuvas moderadas (tempestades leves oriundas de nimbostratus). Por outro lado, o quadro de ajustes lineares para chuvas mais intensas foram positivas, como no caso, de chuvas fortes (tempestades ordinárias) e muito fortes (tempestades severas). / The complexity of understanding during the observation carried out from the identification of a possible behavior of evolution in a climatic system marked by a series storm long of a determined environmental variable is due to the fact of the environment suffer multiple interactions chemical-physically what naturally take place in the global, regional and local scales. In the intention of understanding some elements of this dynamic one there were analyzed some hypotheses that can bring near us of possible explanations as to the context that surfaces from the observed reality. In this context it was analyzed the hypothesis of which the environment physically altered by the man could be influenced the number of episodes of rains in his several intensities during the interval of an hour. The second hypothesis analyzed the possibility of the alterations in great scales wrapping to the fluctuations of temperature observed in the surface of the sea (TSM) of a specific region (Niño3.4) located in the Pacific Ocean be able to be influencing and / or intensifying the episodes of rain in local scale. However, from these means the objective was it of analyzing through the use of statistical methods, from the application of agreements and linear correlations, the identification of positive or negative tendencies, in the picture of each type of rain and, subsequently, in the picture of the variations of TSM, of the region Niño3.4. The second adopted proceeding valued in a qualitative way the possibility to be positive correlations between two linear analyzed agreements. The results indicated that the climatic annual variability of the region Niño3.4 during the complete series (1970-2009) presented a picture of heating (positive agreement). On the other side, also the heating of the TSM was observed during specific series, of the complete series, identified like phases Neuter, ENOS and La Niña. However, the series specify relative to the phase El Niño he presented a reverse behavior, in the case, a cooling in the TSM during the analyzed period. In this case, it was noted that the annual heating of the TSM of the region Niño3.4 takes place in function of the heating observed during the negative anomalies (La Niña). The picture of the linear agreements of each type of rain revealed a reduction hourly in the frequency of very weak rains (thick fogs and fogs), of weak rains (drizzles and drizzles) and of moderate rains (light originating storms of nimbostratus). On the other side, the picture of linear agreements for more intense rains they were positive, since in the case, of strong rains (ordinary storms) and very strong (severe storms).

Human languages are not static entities. Linguistic conventions, whose social and communicative meaning are understood by all members of a speech community, are gradually altered or replaced, whether by changing their forms, meanings, or by the loss of or introduction of altogether new distinctions. How do large speech communities go about re-negotiating arbitrary associations in the absence of centralised coordination? This thesis first provides an overview of the plethora of explanations that have been given for language change. Approaching language change in a quantitative and evolutionary framework, mathematical and computational modelling is put forward as a tool to investigate and compare these different accounts and their purported underlying mechanisms in a rigorous fashion. The central part of the thesis investigates a relatively recent addition to the pool of mechanisms that have been proposed to influence language change: I will compare previous accounts with a momentum-based selection account of language change, a replicator-neutral model where the popularity of a variant is modulated by its momentum, i.e. its change in frequency of use in the recent past. I will discuss results from a multi-agent model which show that the dynamics of a trend-amplifying mechanism like this are characteristic of language change, in particular by exhibiting spontaneously generated s-shaped transitions. I will also discuss several empirical predictions made by a momentum-based selection account which contrast with those that can be derived from other accounts of language change. Going beyond theoretical arguments for the role of trends in language change, I will go on to present fieldwork data of speakers’ awareness of ongoing syntactic changes in the Shetland dialect of Scots. Data collected using a novel questionnaire methodology show that individuals possess explicit knowledge about the direction as well as current progression of ongoing changes, even for grammatical structures which are very low in frequency. These results complement previous experimental evidence which showed that individuals both possess and make use of implicit knowledge about age-dependent usage differences during ongoing sound changes. Echoing the literature on evolutionary approaches to language change, the final part of the thesis stresses the importance of explicitly situating different pressures either in the domain of the innovation of new or else the selection of existing variants. Based on a modification of the Wright-Fisher model from population genetics, I will argue that trend-amplification selection mechanisms provide predictions that neatly match empirical facts, both in terms of the diachronic dynamics of language change, as well as in terms of the synchronic distribution of linguistic traits that we find in the world.

Introdução - A diarréia ainda se apresenta como uma das principais causas de morbimortalidade em crianças menores de um ano de idade em países em desenvolvimento. Disparidades nas taxas globais de morbimortalidade entre regiões têm sido observadas em todo o mundo. Estudos recentes apontam redução na mortalidade associada à diarréia. Entretanto, a morbidade pela doença não seguiu a mesma tendência. Considerando a existência de poucos estudos em território nacional a respeito do comportamento da mortalidade e internações por diarréia, considerou-se oportuna a análise da tendência das diarréias sob este ponto de vista. Objetivo - Analisar a tendência das internações e da mortalidade por diarréia em crianças menores de um ano, nas capitais do Brasil, no período de 1995 a 2005, e encontrar possíveis padrões no comportamento dos indicadores. Métodos - Foi realizado um estudo ecológico de séries temporais utilizando dados secundários do Sistema de Informação Hospitalar (SIH) e do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM) do Ministério da Saúde. Para as análises das tendências das taxas de internações e de mortalidade foram utilizados modelos de regressão polinomial. Resultados - O Brasil e treze capitais brasileiras apresentaram redução tanto nas internações por diarréia quanto na mortalidade infantil por diarréia. Oito capitais tiveram queda somente na mortalidade por diarréia enquanto que três capitais apresentaram decréscimo somente nas taxas de internação por diarréia. Na análise conjunta dos indicadores de diarréia e dos indicadores gerais, observou-se que somente no Brasil e em quatro capitais houve um decréscimo em todas as séries históricas. Conclusões Os resultados encontrados indicam que as medidas empregadas para prevenção e controle da diarréia parecem ter efeito positivo na internação e mortalidade por esta doença em algumas das capitais brasileiras e no Brasil como um todo, necessitando, ainda, de reforço nas ações de prevenção. / Introduction The diarrhea still is presented as one of main causes of morbidity and mortality in children under one year old in developing countries. Differences in the global morbidity and mortality rates among regions have been observed in the whole world. Recent global studies point out a reduction in the mortality associated with the diarrhea. However, the morbidity for the illness did not follow the same trend. There are few studies witches analyzing the trends of the hospitalization and mortality rates by diarrhea in Brazil. Objectives To analyze the trend of hospital admission rates and mortality rates for diarrhea in children under one year old in Brazil as a whole and in its capitals between 1995 and 2005 and to find standards behaviors. Methods This was an ecological study using time-series analysis. The date of hospital admission and mortality rates were collected from Ministry of Health\'s Hospitalization Data System (SIH-SUS) and from Mortality Data System (SIM-MS). Trends were estimated using polynomial regression models. Results Trends for hospital admission rates as well as mortality rates for Brazil as a whole and in thirteen capitals had decreased. Eight capitals had only had reduction in diarrhea mortality rates whereas three capitals had only presented decrease in diarrhea hospitalization rates. The combined analysis of diarrhea indicators and general indicators revealed that only in Brazil as a whole and in four capitals there was a decrease in all the historical series. Conclusions The results indicate that the official measures for prevention and control of the diarrhea seem to have positive effect in the hospital admission rates and mortality rates for the disease in some of the Brazilian capitals and in Brazil as a whole.

This thesis deals with the application of stochastic claims reserving methods to given data with some trends in claims development. It describes the chain ladder method and the generalized linear models as its stochastic framework. Some simple functions are suggested for smoothing the origin and development period coefficients from the estimated model. The extrapolation is also considered for estimation of the unobserved tail values. The residual bootstrap is used for the reparameterized model in order to get the predictive distribution of the estimated reserve together with its standard deviation as a measure of volatility. Solvency capital requirement in one year time horizon is also calculated. 1

Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2016-12-01T12:11:45Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Katia Cristina Luz.pdf: 1165048 bytes, checksum: 6e68c98744efd44f8eb30c6f9c8600f3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-01T12:11:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Katia Cristina Luz.pdf: 1165048 bytes, checksum: 6e68c98744efd44f8eb30c6f9c8600f3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-09-20 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / The objective of this research is to analyze the academic production on autism, through trend of scientific production balance in Brazil contained in the Portal of journals available through the coordination of improvement of higher education (CAPES), Ministry of education, for every period of coverage of the portal, that is, the 1983 2015, based on the contributions of cultural materialism (WILLIAMS, 1980), especially with regard to the narrative and analysis of the concept of scientific field (BOURDIEU, 1983). The choice of the three factors: 1) because they are considered the most advanced scientific communication vehicles (journals) and that, in principle, must meet state-of-the-art production on the subject; 2) not to restrict the national publications, but cover a wider range of international publications; 3) for being one of the most widely used databases by the academic environment expressed the availability of official publications to be used by researchers, teachers and students. Seeking to ensure the quality of articles (initially, the survey, by means of the descriptor "Autism" resulted in 657 productions), it was decided to restrict the selection to only peer-reviewed journals, which, after exclusion of that repeated themselves and those who did not have summaries, once the preliminary reading would break them, resulted in 113 productions were the corpus of the balance sheet of the first part of the research trend certain items were selected on which made more refined analysis, based on reading the full text. The main findings show that there is a symbolic struggle between medicine and psychology with regard to etiology and characterization of autism, the gradual incorporation of traditional classificatory system of Psychiatry (DSM), effected by the general medical classification (CID), which resulted in the adoption of the term "autism spectrum disorder" which appears to have expanded too much criteria for its determination / O objetivo desta pesquisa é a análise da produção acadêmica acerca do autismo, centrado em balanço tendencial da produção científica no Brasil, contida especificamente no Portal de Periódicos, disponibilizado pela Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento do Ensino Superior (CAPES), do Ministério da Educação, durante o período de vigência do portal (1983 a 2015). Tem-se como base teórica as contribuições do materialismo cultural (WILLIAMS, 1980), especialmente no que se refere à análise de narrativas e do conceito de campo científico (BOURDIEU, 1983). A escolha de periódicos contidos nesse portal se deu em virtude de três fatores: 1) serem considerados os veículos de comunicação científica mais avançados (periódicos) e que, em princípio, devem reunir a produção de ponta sobre o tema; 2) não se restringirem a publicações nacionais, mas abrangerem uma gama mais ampla de publicações internacionais; 3) ser um dos bancos de dados mais utilizados pelo meio acadêmico, expressando assim a disponibilidade oficial de publicações a serem utilizadas por pesquisadores, professores e estudantes. Em busca da garantia da qualidade dos artigos (inicialmente, o levantamento, por meio do descritor ―autismo‖, redundou em 657 produções), decidiu-se restringir a seleção somente aos periódicos revisados por pares, os quais, após exclusão dos que se repetiam e os que não possuíam resumos, uma vez que a sua leitura preliminar partiria deles, resultou em 113 produções que constituíram o corpus do balanço tendencial da primeira parte da investigação. A partir dessa etapa, foram selecionados determinados artigos sobre os quais se efetuou análise mais refinada, com base na leitura do texto integral. Os principais achados evidenciam que ocorre uma luta simbólica entre a medicina e a psicologia no que se refere à etiologia e caracterização do autismo, uma vez que a incorporação gradativa de sistema classificatório tradicional da psiquiatria (DSM), de classificação efetuada pela medicina geral (CID) redundou na adoção do termo ―transtorno do espectro do autismo‖, o que parece ter ampliado em demasia os critérios para a determinação do que venha ser autismo