Inference in generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) remains a topic of debate. Baayen, Davidson, and Bates (2008) outlines criticism against conventional ways of performing inference for GLMMs. There are various alternatives proposed but lit- tle consistency is found on which is the most reasonable. Our focus is on assessing temporal trends for mainly ecological count data. That is, we hope to provide a prag- matic approach to Poisson GLMMs for ecological researchers within the statistical programming environment R. To achieve this, we start by providing a description of the selected estimation and inferential procedures. We then complete a large scale simulation to evaluate each of the estimation methods. We implement a power analy- sis to assess each of the selected inferential procedures. We then go on to apply these procedures to data sampled by The National Parks of Canada. Finally, we conclude by giving a summary of our ?ndings and outlying work for the future.

Periodic monitoring of contaminant levels in fish from the Yukon Territory indicated that organochlorine (OC) contaminants had rapidly declined since the early 1990s. This study examined OC concentrations, including chlordane (sigma-CHL), sigma-DDT, hexachlorocyclohexane (sigma-HCH), toxaphene (sigma-CHB), sigma-PCB and chlorinated benzenes (sigma-CBz) in sentinel fish (species of consistent annual observation and collection) from two Yukon lakes (Kusawa, Quiet), and from the aquatic food web of a focus lake (Lake Laberge) across several temporal points between 1993 and 2003. OC analysis and phytoplankton counts from dated sediment cores as well as climate data were also collected. Population, morphological (length, weight, age), biochemical (lipid content, delta-13C, delta-15N) and OC contaminant data for fish and invertebrates (zooplankton, snails, clams) were reviewed to elucidate the primary causes for these OC declines. Although some spatial differences in contaminant levels exist between the Yukon lakes, OC concentrations were declining for lake trout in all three lakes, with declines also noted for burbot from Lake Laberge. Several other fish species as well as zooplankton from Lake Laberge exhibited decreases in contaminant levels except northern pike, which registered consistently higher levels from 1993 to 2001. There was no evidence to support the hypotheses of changes in fish trophic levels or food sources with the exception of burbot, which marginally decreased, and northern pike, which climbed a half trophic level. Through OC flux analysis in dated sediments, the hypothesis that declines in abiotic deposition affected the contaminant levels in the food web was also negated. The closure of the Lake Laberge commercial fishery resulted in faster fish growth and larger fish populations, which are contributing to biomass dilution of OC concentrations, higher OC biomagnification factors for some species and likely changes in predator-prey interactions as resource competition increases. The large ratio of OC decreases in the lower vs. higher trophic levels of Lake Laberge have increased food web magnification factors (FWMF) for all six OC groups. It is also suspected that above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation in the lower Yukon region over the 1990s may have contributed towards an increase in lake primary production resulting in biomass dilution of contaminants in zooplankton for all three study lakes. Concurrently, shifts in the Lake Laberge zooplankton community, from climate fluctuations or increased fish predation, have gone from an abundance of Cyclops scutifer in 1993 to dominance by Diaptomus pribilofensis in 2001, although sample sites were limited. Characteristics specific to each species (e.g. body size, composition and metabolism) likely play a role in the significant OC declines measured in zooplankton. Fluctuations in population dynamics, species characteristics and OC contaminant concentrations in the Lake Laberge ecosystem may continue for several years to come. Sentinel species such as lake trout, burbot, whitefish, cisco and plankton should continue to be monitored in all three Yukon lakes for future temporal correlations with contaminants or climate change. / May 2006

Periodic monitoring of contaminant levels in fish from the Yukon Territory indicated that organochlorine (OC) contaminants had rapidly declined since the early 1990s. This study examined OC concentrations, including chlordane (sigma-CHL), sigma-DDT, hexachlorocyclohexane (sigma-HCH), toxaphene (sigma-CHB), sigma-PCB and chlorinated benzenes (sigma-CBz) in sentinel fish (species of consistent annual observation and collection) from two Yukon lakes (Kusawa, Quiet), and from the aquatic food web of a focus lake (Lake Laberge) across several temporal points between 1993 and 2003. OC analysis and phytoplankton counts from dated sediment cores as well as climate data were also collected. Population, morphological (length, weight, age), biochemical (lipid content, delta-13C, delta-15N) and OC contaminant data for fish and invertebrates (zooplankton, snails, clams) were reviewed to elucidate the primary causes for these OC declines. Although some spatial differences in contaminant levels exist between the Yukon lakes, OC concentrations were declining for lake trout in all three lakes, with declines also noted for burbot from Lake Laberge. Several other fish species as well as zooplankton from Lake Laberge exhibited decreases in contaminant levels except northern pike, which registered consistently higher levels from 1993 to 2001. There was no evidence to support the hypotheses of changes in fish trophic levels or food sources with the exception of burbot, which marginally decreased, and northern pike, which climbed a half trophic level. Through OC flux analysis in dated sediments, the hypothesis that declines in abiotic deposition affected the contaminant levels in the food web was also negated. The closure of the Lake Laberge commercial fishery resulted in faster fish growth and larger fish populations, which are contributing to biomass dilution of OC concentrations, higher OC biomagnification factors for some species and likely changes in predator-prey interactions as resource competition increases. The large ratio of OC decreases in the lower vs. higher trophic levels of Lake Laberge have increased food web magnification factors (FWMF) for all six OC groups. It is also suspected that above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation in the lower Yukon region over the 1990s may have contributed towards an increase in lake primary production resulting in biomass dilution of contaminants in zooplankton for all three study lakes. Concurrently, shifts in the Lake Laberge zooplankton community, from climate fluctuations or increased fish predation, have gone from an abundance of Cyclops scutifer in 1993 to dominance by Diaptomus pribilofensis in 2001, although sample sites were limited. Characteristics specific to each species (e.g. body size, composition and metabolism) likely play a role in the significant OC declines measured in zooplankton. Fluctuations in population dynamics, species characteristics and OC contaminant concentrations in the Lake Laberge ecosystem may continue for several years to come. Sentinel species such as lake trout, burbot, whitefish, cisco and plankton should continue to be monitored in all three Yukon lakes for future temporal correlations with contaminants or climate change.

Periodic monitoring of contaminant levels in fish from the Yukon Territory indicated that organochlorine (OC) contaminants had rapidly declined since the early 1990s. This study examined OC concentrations, including chlordane (sigma-CHL), sigma-DDT, hexachlorocyclohexane (sigma-HCH), toxaphene (sigma-CHB), sigma-PCB and chlorinated benzenes (sigma-CBz) in sentinel fish (species of consistent annual observation and collection) from two Yukon lakes (Kusawa, Quiet), and from the aquatic food web of a focus lake (Lake Laberge) across several temporal points between 1993 and 2003. OC analysis and phytoplankton counts from dated sediment cores as well as climate data were also collected. Population, morphological (length, weight, age), biochemical (lipid content, delta-13C, delta-15N) and OC contaminant data for fish and invertebrates (zooplankton, snails, clams) were reviewed to elucidate the primary causes for these OC declines. Although some spatial differences in contaminant levels exist between the Yukon lakes, OC concentrations were declining for lake trout in all three lakes, with declines also noted for burbot from Lake Laberge. Several other fish species as well as zooplankton from Lake Laberge exhibited decreases in contaminant levels except northern pike, which registered consistently higher levels from 1993 to 2001. There was no evidence to support the hypotheses of changes in fish trophic levels or food sources with the exception of burbot, which marginally decreased, and northern pike, which climbed a half trophic level. Through OC flux analysis in dated sediments, the hypothesis that declines in abiotic deposition affected the contaminant levels in the food web was also negated. The closure of the Lake Laberge commercial fishery resulted in faster fish growth and larger fish populations, which are contributing to biomass dilution of OC concentrations, higher OC biomagnification factors for some species and likely changes in predator-prey interactions as resource competition increases. The large ratio of OC decreases in the lower vs. higher trophic levels of Lake Laberge have increased food web magnification factors (FWMF) for all six OC groups. It is also suspected that above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation in the lower Yukon region over the 1990s may have contributed towards an increase in lake primary production resulting in biomass dilution of contaminants in zooplankton for all three study lakes. Concurrently, shifts in the Lake Laberge zooplankton community, from climate fluctuations or increased fish predation, have gone from an abundance of Cyclops scutifer in 1993 to dominance by Diaptomus pribilofensis in 2001, although sample sites were limited. Characteristics specific to each species (e.g. body size, composition and metabolism) likely play a role in the significant OC declines measured in zooplankton. Fluctuations in population dynamics, species characteristics and OC contaminant concentrations in the Lake Laberge ecosystem may continue for several years to come. Sentinel species such as lake trout, burbot, whitefish, cisco and plankton should continue to be monitored in all three Yukon lakes for future temporal correlations with contaminants or climate change.

Aquatic ecosystems are an essential source for life and, in many regions, are exploited to a degree which deteriorates their ecological status. Today, more than 50 % of the European lakes suffer from an ecological status which is unsatisfactory. Many of these lakes require abatement actions to improve their status, and mathematical models have a great potential to predict and evaluate different abatement actions and their outcome. Several statistical methods and models exist which can be used for these purposes; however, many of the models are not constructed using a sufficient amount or quality of data, are too complex to be used by most managers, or are too site specific. Therefore, the main aim of this thesis was to present different statistical methods and models which are easy to use by managers, are general, and provide insights for the development of similar methods and models. To reach the main aim of the thesis several different statistical and modelling procedures were investigated and applied, such as genetic programming (GP), multiple regression, Markov Chains, and finally, well-used criteria for the r2 and p-value for the development of a method to determine temporal-trends. The statistical methods and models were mainly based on the variables chlorophyll-a (chl-a) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations, but some methods and models can be directly transferred to other variables. The main findings in this thesis were that multiple regressions overcome the performance of GP to predict summer chl-a concentrations and that multiple regressions can be used to generally describe the chl-a seasonality with TP summer concentrations and the latitude as independent variables. Also, it is possible to calculate probabilities, using Markov Chains, of exceeding certain chl-a concentrations in future months. Results showed that deep water concentrations were in general closely related to the surface water concentrations along with morphometric parameters; these independent variables can therefore be used in mass-balance models to estimate the mass in deep waters. A new statistical method was derived and applied to confirm whether variables have changed over time or not for cases where other traditional methods have failed. Finally, it is concluded that the statistical methods and models developed in this thesis will increase the understanding for predictions within and across aquatic systems.

Significant warming of Arctic and northern regions is ongoing and may greatly alter the carbon cycle of these regions. During the International Polar Year, an extensive study was carried out in the Eastern Canadian subarctic and Arctic in order to characterize CO2 and CH4 exchanges from these potentially sensitive ecosystems. The main objectives of this study were to identify the land cover and environmental factors leading to greatest CO2 and CH4 emissions in a highly heterogeneous subarctic landscape, to quantify interannual variability in the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) in subarctic forest tundra and investigate the weather conditions that increase net uptake of CO2, and finally, to evaluate the general trends of mid-summer NEE along a latitudinal gradient spanning from 55° to the 72° north. At the landscape level, CO2 and CH4 exchanges showed large variability. Although CH4 emissions were greatest in wetlands, their areal coverage is small in the Kuujuarapik area and limited the influence of these CH4 sources. At the ecosystem level, large-scale atmospheric processes controlled growing season length and cumulative growing degree days which greatly influenced annual and seasonal NEE trends. The subarctic forest tundra near Kuujuarapik was a net source of CO2 in all 3 study years but the source strength was least with the greatest growing degree days while the length of the snow-free period appeared to be less important. Across a latitudinal gradient covering subarctic forest tundra to Arctic tundra, variations in summer NEE could be linked to surface organic carbon content with higher net CO2 uptake at sites with greater soil organic carbon. Warmer days tended to correlate with smaller daily net CO2 uptake (or greater net CO2 losses) but overall, warmer growing seasons reduced the net losses of CO2 on an annual basis. Carbon fluxes in Eastern Canadian subarctic and Arctic regions are highly variable in space and time but these observations help establish a baseline for future examinations of how these carbon exchanges may change with further warming.

Made available in DSpace on 2011-05-04T12:36:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2010 / O melanoma, a neoplasia cutânea que apresenta a maior letalidade, apresenta tendência de aumento incidência nos últimos 30 anos. Para sua carcinogênese contribuem fatores relacionados aos indivíduos tais como características de cor da pele e fotossensibilidade, e fatores ambientais, principalmente exposição à irradiação ultravioleta. Esta dissertação teve como objetivos avaliar aspectos relacionados mortalidade na população brasileira e à apresentação clínica e ao tratamento do melanoma em centro de referência para o tratamento oncológico no Rio de Janeiro. Observou-se uma tendência temporal de aumento na mortalidade no período de 1980 a 2005 de 1,1 por cento ao ano, com taxas distintas de acordo com o sexo, faixa etária e região geográfica estudada. A tendência variou também segundo estes mesmos fatores, mostrando-se maior entre as mulheres (1,6 por cento ao ano) e nas regiões Sul e Centro-Oeste; e foi distinta quando analisada durante todo o período ou somente nos últimos 10 anos da série: neste último período a tendência mostrou-se menor, com 0,6 por cento de aumento ao ano para todo o país, entre os indivíduos com 70 anos ou mais (3 por cento ao ano), entre as mulheres (1,6 por cento ao ano) e nas regiões Sul e Centro-Oeste. Com relação a série de pacientes oriundos do centro de referência oncológica tratados no período de 1997 a 2004, quando comparados a séries internacionais observa-se uma maior proporção de indivíduos portadores de melanoma acrolentiginoso (21,3 por cento), relacionado à composição étnica da população de referência do centro. Nesta coorte de pacientes a sobrevida global foi semelhante àquela encontrada em outros países. Observou-se nesta população uma associação positiva entre maior nível socioeconômico, medido pela escolaridade, e maior sobrevida global (HR 0,741) e sobrevida livre de doença (HR 0,784). Conclui-se que o melanoma constitui um relevante problema de saúde pública, onde intervenções de prevenção primária devem ser encorajadas, e onde outros fatores além dos classicamente relacionados ao tumor e sua extensão no organismo devem ser observados. / Melanoma, the cutaneous neoplasm with higher lethality, presents with increasing incidence in the last 30 years. Classical factors contributing to its carcinogenicity are related to the characteristics of the host such as skin color and phototypes, and related to environmental exposures, especially ultraviolet irradiation. This study had as objectives to evaluate aspects related to temporal trends in mortality of melanoma in the Brazilian population, and aspects related to clinical presentation and treatment of melanoma at an oncology center in Rio de Janeiro. It was observed an increase in mortality in the period between 1980 and 2005 of 1.1% per year, the rates were different in according to sex, age groups and geographical regions. The temporal trends varied also in according to these same variables, it was higher among females (1.6% per year) and in the regions South and Central-West; the trends were distinct when only the last 10 years were analyzed: there was a decrease in the magnitude of increasing in mortality for the whole country (to 0.6% per year), among older people (over 70 years, 3.0% per year),among females (1.6% per year) and in the regions South and Central-West. With relation to the patients treated at the oncology center in the period between 1997 and 2004, as compared with international series, there was a larger proportion of patients with acrolentiginous melanomas (21.3%), a finding related to ethnic characteristics of the population treated at this center. In the cohort of patients, the overall survival was similar to that found at other countries, as analyzed by stage. In this population it was observed a positive association between higher socioeconomic level (as measured by school attendance) and better overall survival (HR 0.741) and relapse-free survival (HR0.784). In conclusion, melanoma is a relevant public health problem where interventions such as primary prevention may be encouraged, and where factors other than those related to the tumor and its extent in the host should be observed.

High levels of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) in edible fish in the Baltic Sea have raised health concerns in the Baltic region and the rest of Europe. Thus, there are urgent needs to characterize sources in order to formulate effective mitigation strategies. The aim of this thesis is to contribute to a better understanding of past and present sources of PCDD/Fs in the Baltic Sea environment by exploring chemical fingerprints in sediments, air, and biota. The spatial and temporal patterns of PCDD/F distributions in the Baltic Sea during the 20th century were studied in Swedish coastal and offshore sediment cores. The results showed that PCDD/F levels peaked in 1975 (± 7 years) in coastal and 1991 (± 5 years) in offshore areas. The time trends of PCDD/Fs in the sediment cores also showed that environmental half-lives of these pollutants have been shorter in coastal than in offshore areas (15 ± 5 and 29 ± 14 years, respectively). Consequently, there have been remarkable recoveries in coastal areas, but slower recovery in offshore areas with 81 ± 12% and 38 ± 11% reductions from peak levels, respectively. Source-to-receptor multivariate modeling by Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) showed that six types of PCDD/F sources are and have been important for the Baltic Sea environment: PCDD/Fs related to i) atmospheric background, ii) thermal processes, iii) manufacture and use of tetra-chlorophenol (TCP) and iv) penta-chlorophenol (PCP), v) industrial use of elementary chlo- rine and the chloralkali-process (Chl), and vi) hexa-CDD sources. The results showed that diffuse sources (i and ii) have consistently contributed >80% of the total amounts in the Southern Baltic Sea. In the Northern Baltic Sea, where the biota is most heavily contaminated, impacts of local sources (TCP, PCP and Chl) have been higher, contributing ca. 50% of total amounts. Among the six sources, only Thermal and chlorophenols (ii-iv) have had major impacts on biota. The impact of thermal sources has, however, been declining as shown from source apportioned time-trend data of PCDD/Fs in Baltic herring. In contrast, impacts of chlorophenol-associated sources generally increased, remained at steady-state or slowly decreased during 1990-2010, suggesting that these sources have substantially contributed to the persistently high levels of PCDD/Fs in Baltic biota. Atmospheric sources of PCDD/Fs for the Baltic region (Northern Europe) were also investigated, and specifically whether the inclusion of parallel measurements of metals in the analysis of air would help back-tracking sources. PCDD/Fs and metals in high-volume air samples from a rural field station near the shore of the central Baltic Sea were measured. The study focused on the winter season and air from the S and E sectors, as these samples showed elevated levels of PCDD/Fs, particularly PCDFs. Several metals were found to correlate significantly with the PCDFs. The wide range of candidate metals as source markers for PCDD/F emissions, and the lack of an up-to-date extensive compilation of source characteristics for metal emission from vari- ous sources, limited the use of the metals as source markers. The study was not able to pin-point primary PCDD/F sources for Baltic air, but it demonstrated a new promising approach for source tracing of air emissions. The best leads for back-tracking primary sources of atmospheric PCDD/Fs in Baltic air were seasonal trends and PCDD/F congener patterns, pointing at non-industrial related thermal sources related to heating. The non-localized natures of the sources raise challenges for managing the emissions and thus societal efforts are required to better control atmospheric emissions of PCDD/Fs. / EcoChange / BalticPOPs