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Multivariate Hawkes Process Modeled News Flow: Forecasting Financial Markets / Multivariat Hawkes-process-modellerat nyhetsflöde: prognosticering av finansiella marknaderLindström, Tommy January 2018 (has links)
Within the quantitative financial community there are a lot of different approaches in forming profitable trading strategies. This is frequently performed by analyzing historical prices from different perspectives. Some have analyzed other factors than price that might provide insight in which way the market is heading, which in some cases have been successful. This thesis investigates if a news flow model based on a multivariate Hawkes process could give a peek into the future news flow, and if it can be used to successfully predict financial market movements in terms of logarithmic returns by utilizing regression and classification models such as support vector machines. The results show that the trained models perform poorly in general in terms of common regression and classification metrics. Applying the trained models in simple trading strategies show that in some cases they perform better than a buy-and-hold strategy. The ambiguous results indicate that the models might be profitable in trading strategies, but that the predictions might not be very reliable. The trained models cannot seem to find important structures in the predicted news flow relating to market returns, but before dismissing the news flow model entirely it might altered in some sense by, e.g., expanding the dataset with more observations and by looking at other granularities of time. / Kvantitativa analytiker inom finansvärlden försöker med olika tillvägagångssätt utforma vinnande trading-strategier. Oftast görs detta genom att analysera historiska priser från olika perspektiv. Vissa har analyserat andra faktorer än prisrelaterade sådana, i hopp om att dessa ska ge insikt om vart marknaden är på väg, som i vissa fall har lyckats. Det här arbetet undersöker om en nyhetsflödesmodell baserad på en multivariat Hawkes-process kan ge en inblick i det framtida nyhetsflödet, och om det kan användas för att lyckosamt prediktera finansiella marknaders rörelser i termer av logaritmisk avkastning genom att nyttja regressions- och klassificeringsmodeller. Resultaten visar att de tränade modellerna generellt sett presterar dåligt i termer av vanliga regressions- och klassificeringsmått. Genom att applicera de tränade modellerna till enkelt utformade trading-strategier visas att i vissa fall kan dessa prestera bättre än en buy-and-hold-strategi. De tvetydiga resultaten indikerar att modellerna kan vara lönsamma, men att prediktionerna inte är särskilt pålitliga. De tränade modellerna verkar inte kunna finna viktiga strukturer i data från nyhetsflödesmodellen som relaterar till marknadsavkastningar, men innan nyhetflödesmodellen avfärdas skulle den kunna modifieras genom att, t. ex., utöka antalet observationer, och genom att undersöka andra tidsgranulariteter.
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An Empirical Study Concerning Filter Bubbles and Echo Chambers : The perception of personalized content in news applications.Edström, Alice, Björkman, Bo January 2018 (has links)
The aim of this study was to investigate the perception of personalization on news applications and to examine to what extent it is seen as an optimal solution for users to receive information. Due to the growth of online news and digital journalism the amount of information that is being published online is significantly higher nowadays than it has previously been. Therefore, a recommendation system called personalization has been introduced to choose content for the reader. Many concerns of personalization have already been brought to light, these concerns are believed to be contributing to filter bubbles and echo chambers. This study will investigate these concerns further in order to understand the users. The methodology used in the study were semi-structured interviews and an analysis based on the concerns brought forward by Borgesius et al. Six interviews were conducted with users and two were conducted with major news organizations in Sweden. The results of the study indicate that users fear personalization will cause filter bubbles and polarization due to them only being subjected to one perspective. The users are unaware as to how personalization works and therefore question why it is being introduced into news applications. Due to personalization being a new phenomenon news applications it is not yet seen as an optimal solution by users or news organizations. There are, however, many factors that can assist in its development such as transparency and awareness of the phenomenon.
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上市公司季盈餘宣告與投信持股比例關係之研究邱承志 Unknown Date (has links)
本研究係探討「上市公司季盈餘宣告」與「投信持股比例」之關係,希望瞭解季盈餘資訊對基金經理人投資決策之影響方向與程度。樣本涵蓋期間為民國八十四年第四季至八十六年第一季,以國內全體基金及其投資標的為研究對象,採用 t 檢定(單尾、雙尾)及簡單迴歸分析進行研究,實證結果如下:
一、關於「季盈餘成長率」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性:
就整體樣本而言,此二項變數間的關係並不顯著,但就產業別而言,「金融類股」與「其他類股」則出現顯著的結果,顯著水準分別是 1%與 5%。
二、關於「好消息」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性:
「季盈餘成長率」與「持股比例變動百分比」均達到 1% 的顯著水準,且後者的 t 值為證數,顯示好消息確實會引起持股比例顯著增加。
但就變動幅度的相關性加以分析,整體樣本的迴歸分析結果並不顯著,在產業類別方面,僅有「其他類股」出現顯著的狀況,達到 1%顯著水準。
三、關於「壞消息」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性:
「季盈餘成長率」與「持股比例變動百分比」均達到 1%的顯著水準,但後者的 t 值為負數,表示壞消息的出現反而造成持股比例顯著增加。
若就變動幅度的相關性加以分析,全體樣本迴歸分析結果達到 10%的顯著水準,至於在產業別方面,計有塑膠、營建、金融等三種產業出現顯著的結果,顯著水準分別是 10%、1%、1%。
四、關於「好消息的幅度」與「持股比例增加幅度」的分組檢定:
四組「好消息的幅度」均達到 1%的顯著水準,而四組「持股比例增加幅度」亦均達到 5%的顯著水準,顯示只要出現好消息,不論幅度大小,均會引起持股比例顯著增加。
但是迴歸分析方面,四組皆未達到顯著水準,顯示「持股比例增加的幅度」與「好消息的幅度」並不具有顯著的相關性。
五、關於「壞消息的幅度」與「持股比例減少幅度」的分組檢定:
四組「壞消息的幅度」均達到 1%的顯著水準,而四組「持股比例減少幅度」亦均達到 5%的顯著水準,顯示只要出現壞消息,不論幅度大小,均會引起持股比例顯著增加。原因可能亦為投信基金進場承接的結果。
至於在迴歸分析方面,四組皆未達到顯著水準,顯示「持股比例增加的幅度」與「壞消息的幅度」並不具有顯著的相關性,亦即只要出現壞消息投信基金就可能進場承接,但承接時買進的幅度與壞消息的幅度並未沒有顯著的相關性。
六、關於「本季盈餘成長率大於前一季」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性:
不論是全體樣本或細分的三組樣本(正正、負正、負負)均出現顯著的結果,除了「負正組」的顯著水準為 5%外,全體樣本與其餘二組(正正、負負)的顯著水準均為 1%。顯示投信業者相當重視上市公司盈餘改善的訊息,只要本季盈餘成長率大於前一季,不論前後二季盈餘成長率究竟是正號或負號,投信基金均會顯著增加持股比例。
七、關於「本季盈餘成長率小於前一季」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性:
不論是全體樣本或細分的三組樣本(正正、正負、負負)均出現顯著的結果,全體樣本與「負負組」的顯著水準為 1%,「正正組」與「正負組」的顯著水準為 5%。但四種情況的 t 值均為正數,與假說之預期正好相反,表示本季盈餘成長率小於前一季時,確實會引起投信基金進場承接。 / The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of quarterly report announcement on portfolio revision of mutual funds in the Taiwan stock market. Based on economics of information, mutual fund can be considered as a professional investor in the market such that management of mutual fund wold apply his (her) professional knowledge to forecast the realized number of earnings this period. Therefore, this study hypothesizes that mutual funds would response to the announcement of quarterly earnings earlier than other investors such that the porfolio of mutual fund would accord the announcement to make proper revision. The findings of this study can be summarized as follows.
● Except for financial servics and others industry groups, the relationship between the announcement of quarterly earnings and porfolio revisions of mutual funds is not significant.
● The positive growth of quarterly earnings will cause the significant porfolio revisions of mutual funds; but the relationship between their magnitude is not significant.
● The negative growth of quarterly earnings will cause the reverse significant porfolio revisions of mutual funds. This results implies mutual fund may be an instrument for maintaining price; or mutual fund may consider the bad news of this period being the worst condition of the firm.
● It is robust to conclude whatever itis a good news or not, mutual fund will increase its holdings. In particular, these results hold when the next quarter has the same sign of earnings growth.
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財務預測宣告對信用交易影響之研究 / Voluntary Forecast versus Credit Transactions唐琬珊 Unknown Date (has links)
本論文的目的,在探討我國自願性財務預測公告與證券信用交易之間的關係。信用交易的增減代表使用信用交易的投資者對某特定資訊的瞭解與使用,因此實證檢視財務預測的修正行為與信用交易增減的關係,可以敏銳地瞭解,是種特定投資者在哪個時點對財務預測修正進行理性預期,並予使用且做了較實際的交易行為。因此,本研究的測試可以瞭解使用信用交易的投資者如何使用財務預測等相關資訊。據此,本研究的結果有助於了解使用信用交易的投資者如何運用自願性財務預測資訊來做投資決策。
研究期問是以民國八十四年至八十六年的資料為分析的對象,研究的結果顯示:
一、在季報(半年報、年報)公告前公佈的財務預測,好消息會引起融資顯著增加,融券增加幅度雖不如融資大,但結果亦為顯著;壞消息會使融資及融券同樣顯著增加,但融資增加幅度亦較融券顯著。
二、在季報(半年報、年報)公告後公佈的財務預測,好消息會引起融資顯著增加,融券增加幅度雖不如融黃大,但結果亦為顯著;壞消息會使融資及融券同樣顯著增加,但融資增加幅度亦較融券顯著。 / This study aims to examine the relationship between an announcement of voluntary forecasts and credit transactions, including margin and short transactions. In general, an announcement of good news would attract investor to employ margin for a long position, and vice versa. Since only noisy trader can employ credit transaction in Taiwan, this study hypothesizes that investors would follow the announcement for making rational expectation. The results of this study could help understand how noisy traders use a financial forecast. This study selects the samples occurred between 1995 and 1997 to test the established hypotheses.
The empirical results can be summarized as follows.
●If the announcement of voluntary forecast occurred prior to the release of quarterly, semiannual, and annual reports, both good and bad news simultaneously cause an increase of margin and short transactions during this period. However, the magnitude of margin transactions is significantly higher than that of short transactions.
●If the announcement of voluntary forecast occurred subsequent to the release of quarterly, semiannual, and annual reports, both good and bad news simultaneously cause an increase of margin and short transactions during this period; however, the magnitude of margin transaction is significantly higher than that of short transaction.
Since noisy traders are essentially information followers, their judgement significantly relates to functional efficiency of informational intermediaries. These empirical results imply the function of informational intermediaries requires further improvement.
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Nyheternas födelse : En kvantitativ undersökning av källor till lokala nyheter i lokaltidningarOhlsson, Matilda, Spogardh, Johanna January 2008 (has links)
<p><p>The purpose of this thesis was to study the origin of the local news in local newspapers. Do the news originate mostly from the police, the municipality, from press releases or from the reporters own ideas? We also wanted to find out what kind of content predominated in texts with its origin in press releases respectively the reporters own ideas. Of course we also wanted to find out if there were any similarities or differences between the two studied newspapers.</p><p>We used a type of constructed week, but with non random selection instead of random. We chose one of each weekday the newspapers were published and studied the news covered in the papers that specific day. We talked over the phone with the news editors and the reporters and simply asked them about the origin of each news text separately.</p><p>The results showed that every fourth text originates from the police, and that police news often ends up as news items rather than articles. We also came to the conclusion that local newspapers use fewer press releases than earlier research has shown. Only one sixth of the news studied originates from press releases, which is less than we thought it would be. News with its origin in advertisements was less often found.</p><p>News with its origin in the reporters own ideas deal with various subjects. A text that is written on the basis of a press release on the other hand is often about some kind of event and has almost always a very positive tone. We could not notice any remarkable difference between the two studied newspapers.</p></p>
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Media Crisis Decision Making : A Case Study of SR (Swedish Radio), SVT (Swedish Television) and TV4Olsson, Eva-Karin January 2008 (has links)
The study takes as its starting point that news organizations’ actions during crises vary more than one can expect based on previous research on news work. Accordingly, the dissertation aims to move beyond the notion of news organizations as homogenous and attempts to open the ‘black box’ of news organizations’ decision making. The study is based on interviews with members of three Swedish broadcasting organizations: the Swedish Public Television (SVT), the Swedish Public Radio (SR), and TV4. The interviews focused on how the three organizations dealt with the news coverage of the September 11th 2001 terrorist attacks in the USA. The four articles included in this dissertation challenge from different perspectives the previous assumptions presented in the field of media and journalism. First, as a response to the variety of definitions of non-routine news events applied in previous research, Article I sets out to propose a definition of crisis news events from a news organizational perspective. Accordingly, the article proposes to understand crisis news as surprise events that challenge key organizational values and that demand a swift response. Second, in questioning the notion of news organizations as homogenous, Article II examines the actions taken by the three Swedish broadcasting organizations in response to 9/11. This article argues, based on a neo-institutional perspective, that news organizations’ decision making can be explained by differences in organizational ‘rule-regimes’. Third, Article III challenges the assumption that newsroom actions are homogeneous by examining two newsroom responses to 9/11, in particular their everyday organizational structures and previous experiences. The last Article (IV) applies a slightly different perspective in arguing that during crises media managers’ decisions are not only influenced by the audiences’ informational needs but also by the ritual role news organizations play in times of crises.
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An Analysis of Two Major Global News Channels’ Twitter Feeds : The British Broadcasting Corporation and Al Jazeera EnglishCook, William January 2013 (has links)
Twitter is an online social networking service which functions as an information sharing medium, hence it is perfect for media to convey pieces of news. The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) and Al Jazeera English (AJE) are two international news channels that actively use Twitter to share their news stories. Previous investigations have found that depending on the news story, the BBC and AJE convey their pieces of news slightly differently. This study aims to give an analysis of the textual content in these two news channel’s text messages (tweets) on Twitter to see if there are linguistic variations. The tweets were analysed in terms of tone, word choice and information richness. Tweets where the words Syria and kill occurred were chosen for a more thorough analysis, and the results show that the BBC had a slightly more negative tone, provided more detailed news reports and used a more informative language than AJE. It might be that the findings were a result of chance considering the fact that the collection of tweets analysed was rather small and differed in size. Nevertheless, the differences that were revealed by the study were of an apparent nature and occurred too frequently and consistently in this small material to be discarded as merely incidental.
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Den "perfekta" stormen : En studie av nyhetstäckningen kring en naturkatastof i västerländska tidningar / The "Perfect" Storm : A study in news coverage of a natural disaster in western newspapersBengts, Elina, Johansson, Christian January 2013 (has links)
Uppsatsen söker visa på hur medierapporteringen av en nordamerikansk naturkatastrof ser ut och skiljer sig från varandra i tidningars internetupplagor från olika västerländska länder utifrån sex syftesfrågor; På vilket sätt har amerikanska och svenska nyhetsmedier rapporterat om katastrofen? Vilka huvudsakliga teman skriver tidningarna om? Vilka källor kommer till tals? Vilka händelser fokuserar tidningarna på? Hur har ländernas tidningar rapporterat om länder katastrofen drabbade innan den nådde USA? På vilka sätt skiljer sig ländernas tidningar från varandra? Länderna utvalda för att besvara frågan är USA och Sverige, och tidningarna från respektive land uppsatsen använder för att besvara frågan är Washington Post, Huffington Post, Svenska Dagbladet och Dagens Nyheter. Den nordamerikanska naturkatastrofen som uppsatsen ska undersöka är orkanen Sandy, som mellan dagarna 22 och 31 oktober 2012 färdades från Jamaica till USAs östkust där den skingrades efter att ha orsakat skador för miljarder efter hela sin resväg. För att analysera materialet så har kvantitativ innehållsanalys och kritisk diskursanalys tillämpas. Teorierna som uppsatsen tillämpar de två metoderna på är Entmans Framing-teori, nyhetsvärdering enligt bland andra, Henk Prakke. Teorier om agenda setting och journalistisk praktik tillämpas också för att påvisa hur tidningar kan påverka sitt innehåll på olika sätt. Det kvantitativa materialet består av sammanlagt 194 artiklar från de fyra olika tidningarna och det kvalitativa materialet av en artikel av speciellt intresse per tidning. Resultatet redovisas i två delar, en per metod. I undersökningen framkommer det att täckningen mellan länderna på en del punkter är mycket lika och på andra mycket olika. Täckningen av orkanen var mellan länderna lika i sitt stora fokus på USA i majoriteten av alla artiklar, likaså var tidningarnas täckning lika i frekvensen som artiklarnas innehåll var alarmerande eller neutrala förmedlare. Skillnader fanns dock mellan länderna i hur ländernas täckning av andra länder än USA sett ut, där de svenska tidningarna visade sig nästan uteslutande täcka Haitis situation, till stor del som en del i täckningen av landets många problem i stort, medan USA täckte Jamaica och Kuba, men endast i förbifarten och som en del av den allmänna rapporteringen om orkanens resväg. Uppsatsens slutsats är att skillnaderna som hittats, beror på det uppfattade kulturella avståndet mellan länderna som undersökts och länderna som drabbats. / This essay seeks to show how coverage of a North-American natural disaster looks and differs between the internet-edition of newspapers from western countries by way of six research questions: In what way has Swedish and American news media reported on the disaster? What main themes do the papers write about? Who can be seen making statements in the articles? What are the events focused on in the papers? How did the newspaper’s report on countries affected by the disaster before it arrived in the USA? In what ways do the countries differ from each other? The countries chosen for answering the question with, are the USA and Sweden, and the papers chosen from the respective country is Washington Post, Huffington Post, Svenska Dagbladet and Dagens Nyheter. The North-American disaster that will be examined is Hurricane Sandy that between the days 22 to 31 October 2012 traveled from Jamaica to the American east coast, causing billions worth of damage on its way there. To analyze the material two methods, quantitative content analysis and critical discourse analysis were chosen. The theories used to work the methods are the Framing-theory by Entman, News-evaluation by way of among others Henk Prakke. Agenda Setting theories and theories on journalistic practices is also employed to make the point and explain how newspapers are able to affect the content they produce. The quantitative material used is made up of 194 articles from the four papers as well as one article, chosen for its specific content, from each newspaper. The results are presented separately for each method. The contents of the essay show that the countries papers in some ways have covered the event quite similarly and in some ways very differently. The coverage was similar in that both countries focused mainly on covering the USA, as well as in the frequency of articles where the contents were covered in a neutral or alarming fashion. Differences sprung up in the choice of coverage of other affected countries aside from the U.S where Swedish newspapers mainly focused on reporting on the situation in Haiti, mainly as a part in their general coverage of the country`s previous disaster exposure, while the American newspapers mainly wrote about Jamaica and Cuba, but only however as part of the coverage given to the path the hurricane was taking. The conclusion made by the essay is that differences are created and occur due to perceived cultural distance to the different actors affected by Sandy held by the countries whose media coverage was researched.
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Shaping electronic news : A case study of genre perspectives on interaction designLundberg, Jonas January 2005 (has links)
This thesis describes and analyzes implications of going from hypertext news to hypermedia news through a process of design, involving users and producers. As in any product development, it is difficult to conceive design of a novel news format that does not relate to earlier genres, and thus to antecedent designs. The hypothesis is that this problem can be addressed by explicitly taking a genre perspective to guide interaction design. This thesis draws on genre theory, which has previously been used in rhetoric, literature, and information systems. It is also informed by theories from humancomputer interaction. The methodological approach is a case study of the ELIN project, in which new tools for online hypermedia newspaper production were developed and integrated. The study follows the project from concept design to interaction design and implementation of user interfaces, over three years. The thesis makes three contributions. Firstly, a genre perspective on interaction design is described, revealing broadly in what respects genre affects design. Secondly, the online newspaper genre is described. Based on a content analysis of online newspaper front-pages, and interviews with users and producers, genre specific design recommendations regarding hypertext news front-page design are given. A content analysis of Swedish online newspapers provides a basis for a design rationale of the context stream element, which is an important part of the news context on article pages. Regarding hypervideo news, design rationale is given for the presentation of hypervideo links, in the context of a hypermedia news site. The impact on news production in terms of dynamics of convergence is also discussed. Thirdly, the design processes in cooperative scenario building workshops are evaluated, regarding how the users and producers were able to contribute. It provides implications and lessons learned for the workshop phase model. A discourse analysis also reveals important facilitator skills and how participants relied on genre in the design process.
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Urspårad nyhetsrapportering : En kvalitativ textanalys av en lokal och en rikstäckande tidningsrapportering av tågolyckan utanför KimstadJohansson, Camilla, Henrysson, Emma January 2011 (has links)
The purpose with this study is to examine how the media coverage of the train accidentoutside Kimstad, on the night of September 12th 2010, was framed in one local (Norrköpingsnyheter) and one national newspaper (Expressen) and how the coverage of the accident wasdifferent in the local newspaper compared to the national newspaper.The material is 12 articles within a fixed time limit which is from September 13th toSeptember 15th. The material consists of six articles from each newspaper.The method we use a qualitative text analysis with its basis in medialogic, news value andframing theory.In the essay’s analysis we show a synthesis of both newspapers coverage of the train accidentoutside Kimstad and how they stand in relation to the theory of news value and we end with aterminative comment about the results.The conclusion shows that the coverage of the event was different in many ways. Expressenuses a more dramatic framing and a more sensational language which describes the eventmore badly than it was. NT uses a more informative and objective information which almosttrifles the event but which informs about relevant information for the locals. Expressen mostlyturns to civil persons and the passengers on the train for quotes while NT turns to governmentpeople and cites them. Expressen also used personalization more than NT, but NT simplifiedtheir stories more than Expressen.We could also see that the crisis could be marked by the definitions of a crisis made byUlmer, Sellnow & Seeger. We could also relate the crisis event to the coverage of the crisis.They were both short and sudden.Earlier research has shown that national newspapers have a tendency to dramatize news morethan what local newspapers do.
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