Thèse d'exercice : Médecine. Médecine générale : Paris 12 : 2007. / Titre provenant de l'écran-titre. 66 f. Bibliogr. f. 65-66.

Att i förväg försöka förutsäga vilket lag som kommer vinna i en fotbollsmatch har nog de flesta försökt sig på någon gång. Att gissa och att faktiskt försöka att analysera båda lagens förutsättningar är två väldigt olika metoder att komma fram till sitt resultat. I och med att datorkraften de senaste åren kraftigt förbättrats har det också kommit fler och framför allt tyngre matematiska modeller för att skatta utfallet av matcher. I detta examensarbete används Pi-ratingsystemet som går ut på att varje lag får en rating för hur bra man är på hemma- respektive bortaplan. Som en utveckling av den ursprungliga Pi-rating modellen används det i detta arbete tre olika modeller för att prediktera lagens framtida rating. Modellerna som används är enkelt glidande medelvärde, enkel exponentiell utjämning och en ARIMA-modell. En lösning på hur nya lag som inte spelade i ligan föregående år ska behandlas föreslås också. Avslutningsvis diskuteras olika investeringsmetoder som kan användas för att använda resultat från modellerna på marknaden för vadslagning. Resultatet visar att en spelstrategi som utnyttjat Kellys formel ger störst avkastning för kalibreringsdatat. När denna strategi används på matcher utanför kalibreringsåren visar resultatet på en mycket låg vinst och framför allt att vinsten under lång tid är negativ, vilket från en investeringssyn inte är något man önskar. Sammanfattningsvis är denna metod inte i sig själv tillräckligt bra för att ge en säker avkastning men är en bra grund som kan byggas ut för att ta hänsyn till fler faktorer och då ge möjlighet till stabilare och mer långsiktiga vinster. / To predict a soccer game in advance is something that has been done by most people. If the prediction is the result of an advanced mathematical formula or just ha pure guess done on your favorite team is very different. Since the computer power in recent years has greatly improved the number of mathematical approaches has increased and it is especially the computational heavy models that have increased in number. In this thesis the Pi-rating system is used it gives each team a home and away rating that describe how good/bad they are compared to the average competing team. As an extension of the original Pi-rating model, in this thesis time series analysis is used to predict future values of the teams rating, three different methods are tested and they are simple moving average, simple exponential smoothing and an ARIMA-model. A solution to how new teams that did not play in the league last year should be handled is also suggested. Finally a breath discussion and test of different investment methods that can be applied on the final model to be used on the sport betting market. The results show that the greatest returns on the calibration data is achieved when Kelly’s formula is used as an investment method on an ARIMA(0,1,1)-model, but when this strategy is used outside calibration data, the result shows a very low profit and the method  fails to give a stable long term return, which from an investment point of view is not desirable. The conclusion is that this method is not in itself good enough to provide a safe return but is a good foundation that can be expanded to take more factors into account, and then hopefully give bigger and more stable winnings.

Notre intérêt de recherche tourne autour des situations-problèmes proposées par un manuel scolaire issu de la réforme et se situe au moment de l'introduction de l'algèbre au premier cycle du secondaire. En effet, les manuels scolaires sont un outil de première importance pour les enseignants, ils déterminent les activités réalisées, les stratégies pédagogiques et didactiques employées. Le manuel Perspective mathématique propose dans son dossier huit situations-problèmes dans la séquence « L'algèbre par résolution de problèmes ». Les résultats obtenus avec deux outils d'analyse ont été croisés pour analyser ces situations-problèmes, la grille élaborée par Jonnaert qui s'appuie sur les paramètres d'une situation : objets, opérateurs et produits et celle de Bednarz et Janvier reprise par Marchand qui cible plus particulièrement les problèmes algébriques. L'analyse de ces situations-problèmes amène à cerner leur niveau de complexité, leur richesse ainsi que leurs limites permettant ainsi de déterminer l'approche privilégiée par ce manuel pour introduire l'algèbre. Les résultats obtenus montrent que le niveau de complexité des situations-problèmes situées au début de la séquence est croissant. Les connaissances préalables sont prises en considération et l'élève est amené à construire graduellement de nouveaux apprentissages algébriques. Ces situations-problèmes apparaissent toutefois complexes. À la fin de la séquence, les situations-problèmes proposées sont d'une structure différente, moins contextualisées, leur résolution requiert un nombre de tâches beaucoup moins grand que pour les situations-problèmes présentées au début de la séquence. La gradation de l'ordre de complexité est décroissant pour ces 4 situations. Nous avons noté que deux de ces situations ne sont pas des situations-problèmes. L'analyse d'une situation-problème du MELS permet de remarquer que sa structure est différente de celles proposées dans ce manuel, celle-ci contenant un très grand nombre de tâches mais d'un ordre de complexité croissant permettant à l'élève de s'engager dans la résolution avant d'être confronté à un obstacle. Le même travail a été mené avec les situations d'application issues de ce même dossier de Perspective mathématique. ______________________________________________________________________________ MOTS-CLÉS DE L’AUTEUR : Situation-problème, Situation d'application, Structure d'une situation, Résolution de problème en algèbre.

Ce mémoire porte sur la densité du premier temps de passage d'un processus gaussien et markovien à travers une frontière. Ce problème est résolu pour quelques cas particuliers, mais il n'est pas encore possible pour l'instant de le résoudre de façon analytique pour une frontière déterministe quelconque. (Di Nardo et al., 2001) ont proposé une méthode qui utilise des fonctions symétriques pour un ensemble de frontières qui généralisent celles de (Daniels, 1996). C'est ce qui est principalement étudié ici. De plus, deux exemples d'applications en finance sont considérés. Finalement, on regarde aussi un exemple de simulations pour comparer cette méthode à celle de (Durbin et Williams, 1992). ______________________________________________________________________________ MOTS-CLÉS DE L’AUTEUR : Processus gaussien et markovien, mouvement brownien, processus d'Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, premier temps de passage.

Coaching and the coaching process are characterised by a number of complex interactions between the coach, the player and the club environment. Yet understanding of the coaching process as a complex, holistic process remains limited. There are 'gaps' in our existing knowledge, particularly in comprehending the dynamic relationship between the coach, player and club environment, and in understanding the implications of these interactions for practice and the coaching process. This research sought to examine and represent the complexity of the coach-player-club environment interface, and to understand some of the ways that they interact to construct and impinge upon the coaching process. The research was conducted on the premise that a sound understanding of the complexity of the coaching process drawing upon empirical research, rather than idealistic 'models', can inform the future development of coaching practice and coach education. Within the framework of ethnography, the research took place over one season and used participant observation, unstructured interviews, semi-structured interviews and group interviews in one Football Association, Premier League Academy. The aim was to explore the coaching process and practical coaching context, as played out in the day-to-day experiences of coaches and youth team players. In addition to the main case-study club, semi-structured interviews were conducted with five coaches working with youth teams at other clubs. The research used concepts from grounded theory and also the work of Pierre Bourdieu to analyse and present the data. In its findings, the study depicts a coaching process that is interdependent and interrelated and highlights complexity in each of the following elements: the club, sessions and games, players and coaches, relationships, and 'attitude'. The dynamism within and between each of these elements is illustrated in the ways that each can facilitate, constrain or even prevent 'effective' practice and the operation of the coaching process. Moreover, the research demonstrates the powerful nature of tradition and culture, highlighting their pervasive influence upon the coaching process and coaching practice. Life at the case study club was characterised by authoritarianism and pressure, and was relentlessly directed towards winning. This backdrop strongly influenced the relationship between coaches and players, and impacted upon the coaching process. Importantly, the research presents evidence to suggest that coach education may be a relatively 'low impact' endeavour in comparison to the coaches' other experiences which are presented as a significant force shaping both coaches' development and practice. To harness this experience and develop coach education, this research suggests that the governing body could consider embracing mentoring as part of coach education and, as part of this, coaches should be encouraged to engage in critical reflection in order to understand how cultural and other forces shape their practice. However, for mentoring to succeed, it must be grounded in a thorough understanding of the culture of football clubs, and the ways coaches draw upon their life experiences in football to direct their own practice and judge the practices and 'worth' of others. Importantly, this research begins to answer some of the criticisms levelled at previous research by examining interaction and complexity within the coaching process in-situ. It highlights the problematic, interrelated and interdependent nature of relationships that construct and influence the coaching process and coaching practice. Importantly, it highlights the important and under-researched link between coaching practice, the coaching process and the immediate and wider social context of football.

Ce mémoire présente le résultat de mon travail de thèse sur la génération d'impliqués premiers en logique équationnelle fermée, i.e., la génération des conséquences les plus générales de formules logiques contenants des équations et des disequations entre termes sans variables. Ce mémoire est divisé en trois parties. Tout d'abord, deux calculs de génération d'impliqués sont définis. Leur complétude pour la déduction est prouvée, ce qui signifie qu'ils sont tous deux capables de générer l'ensemble des impliqués modulo redondance d'une formule équationnelle fermée. Dans une deuxième partie, une structure de données arborescente est proposée pour stocker les impliqués générés, accompagnée d'algorithmes pour déceler les redondances et couper les branches de l'arbre lorsque c'est nécessaire. Cette structure de données est adaptée aux différents types de clauses (avec et sans symboles de fonctions, avec et sans contraintes) ainsi qu'aux différentes notions de redondance utilisées dans les calculs. En effet, chaque calcul utilise un critère de redondance légèrement différent des autres. Les preuves de correction et de terminaison des algorithmes sont fournies pour chaque algorithme. Enfin, une évaluation expérimentale des différentes méthodes de génération d'impliqués premiers est réalisée. Pour cela, un prototype de ces méthodes, écrit en Ocaml est comparé à des outils de génération d'impliqués premiers récents.Les résultats de ces expériences sont utilisés pour identifier les variantes les plus efficaces des algorithmes proposés. Les résultats sont prometteurs et dans la plupart des cas, meilleurs que ceux de l'état de l'art. / The work presented in this memoir deals with the generation of prime implicates in ground equational logic, i.e., of the most general consequences of formulae containing equations and disequations between ground terms.It is divided in three parts. First, two calculi that generate implicates are defined. Their deductive-completeness is proved, meaning they can both generate all the implicates up to redundancy of equational formulae.Second, a tree data structure to store the generated implicates is proposed along with algorithms to detect redundancies and prune the branches of the tree accordingly. This data structure is adapted to the different kinds of clauses (with and without function symbols, with and without constraints) and to the various formal definitions of redundancy used in the calculi since each calculus uses different -- although similar -- redundancy criteria. Termination and correction proofs are provided with each algorithm. Finally, an experimental evaluation of the different prime implicate generation methods based on research prototypes written in Ocaml is conducted including a comparison with state-of-the-art prime implicate generation tools. This experimental study is used to identify the most efficient variants of the proposed algorithms. These show promising results overstepping the state of the art.

Title: Evaluating of efficiency of Football Clubs in Premier League by Data Envelopment Analysis. Goals: The aim of the thesis is to identify the effectiveness of football clubs in the Premier League in the season 2016/2017. In the post optimization analysis evaluate, which observed clubs have been effective in transforming inputs into outputs, and which clubs have some deficiencies in this transformation. Methods: In the thesis for efficiency research, the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) data analysis method is used to evaluate the effectiveness of individual clubs in the Premier League. DEA determines which units are effective and what are the deviations from the effective frontier for the units that are inefficient. The measurements are made by an input- oriented CCR model and a BCC model. The CCR model assumes constant returns to scale and BCC considers variable returns to scale. Results: The result section identifies the productive efficiency of individual football clubs in the Premier League in the season 2016/2017. The effective frontier reached a total of 7 clubs in both CCR and BCC models. The average efficiency in the CCR model is 87 %. In the BCC model, the average efficiency is 91 %. As a result, the Premier League as a competition is highly efficient. Key words: data envelopment...

Submitted by Eric Matheus Rocha Lima null (ericmrl@hotmail.com) on 2018-02-21T17:02:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 VERSÃO FINAL.pdf: 5609641 bytes, checksum: 72dfd18e8a5028d8a60715c8ed62d469 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Aparecida Puerta null (dripuerta@rc.unesp.br) on 2018-02-22T13:38:29Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 lima_emr_me_rcla.pdf: 4998314 bytes, checksum: 7ae5ea273e4af8943126c6d92c688397 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-02-22T13:38:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 lima_emr_me_rcla.pdf: 4998314 bytes, checksum: 7ae5ea273e4af8943126c6d92c688397 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-19 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Além de ser uma modalidade esportiva que envolve relações de cooperação e oposição, o futebol também é um ambiente de rica disponibilidade e aplicação de informações acerca do que ocorre nas partidas. Ao encontro disso, o presente trabalho centra inquietações em busca do entendimento das ocorrências do jogo de futebol e da relação destas com o resultado final das partidas. Dessa forma, o objetivo do estudo consiste em apontar indicadores e variáveis que apresentam maior influência nos resultados das partidas de futebol. A relevância do estudo pauta-se no fato de permitir a análise de vários indicadores (posse de bola, passes, finalizações, entre outros) da modalidade ao mesmo tempo, permitindo a identificação de alternativas que aumentem as chances de êxito. O estudo se caracteriza como uma pesquisa quantitativa, de caráter descritivo. Para atingir os objetivos, será utilizada como amostra os dados estatísticos referentes às 380 partidas da temporada 2015/2016 da Premier League, o campeonato Inglês, dados estes coletados junto ao website do jornal Inglês “Daily Mail”. Também foram coletados dados referentes aos valores de mercado dos jogadores das equipes, obtidos no website do “Transfermarkt”, especializado em determinação financeira de elencos. Como ferramentas auxiliares para o processo de análise dos dados coletados serão utilizados alguns recursos computacionais, mais especificamente, a planilha eletrônica e o aplicativo Weka, um programa que implementa vários algoritmos da área de mineração de dados. Como resultados iniciais das análises, os números mostram que melhor conversão do total de finalizações em gols leva a uma chance superior de vitórias à conversão das finalizações certas em gols. Ao comparar apenas o total de finalizações e o total de finalizações certas, acertar mais a meta demonstrou maior probabilidade de êxito. Ter mais posse de bola e/ou realizar/acertar mais passes não aumenta a possibilidade de vitórias, a não ser que estes indicadores estejam relacionados a uma superioridade nas finalizações certas, mesmo que não levem ao gol. No entanto, estas mesmas finalizações certas mostram-se mais benéficas que a posse de bola e/ou os passes, para vencer as partidas. Além disso, ter maior percentual de passes longos e finalizar mais vezes na meta apresentou 71% de chances de triunfo. Deve-se observar também que realizar mais cruzamentos e escanteios não se traduz em grande probabilidade de vitórias. Por fim, apresentar elevado aproveitamento de gols nas finalizações certas, mesmo recebendo mais cartões amarelos, demonstrou 70% de probabilidade de vitórias. Esta dissertação oferece uma inovação metodológica que permite a identificação de alternativas aplicáveis para aumentar as chances de vitória, acrescenta conhecimento ao entendimento de que não há uma única fórmula para o sucesso e pode auxiliar na atuação dos treinadores de futebol por subsidiar alternativas que melhor se ajustem aos recursos disponíveis. / Besides being a sport that involves cooperation and opposition relations, football is also an environment of rich informations availability and application about what occurs in the matches. To that, the present work focuses concerns looking for the understanding of the games occurrences and their relation with the final match results. In this way, the study’s aim consists in pointing indicators and variables that show higher influence on football matches results’ occurrence. The relevance of the study is based on allowing the analysis of many indicators (ball possession, passes, shots, among others) of the sport at the same time, allowing the alternatives’ identification to increase chances of success. The study is characterized as a quantitative research, of described character. To reach the aim proposed, will be used as the sample the statistic data from the total of 380 Premier League, (English Football League) matches in the season 2015/2016, data obtained through accesses to Daily Mail’s website (english periodic). The data related to the teams’ market value were collected in the Transfermarkt’ website, specialized in squads financial determination. As auxiliary instruments for the collected data analysis’ process, some computational resources will be used, specifically, a spreadsheet and the Weka app, a program that implements many algorithms of data mining area. As initial analysis’ results, numbers show that better conversion of the total shots in goals takes to a higher chance of winning in relation to a better conversion of shots on target in goals. Comparing only total shots and total shots on target, reach the target with more frequency has shown higher likelihood of success. Having more ball possession and/or making more accuracy passes do not increase victory’s possibility, unless those indicators are related to shots on goal superiority, even if they do not take the team to score a goal. However, those shots on target showed themselves as more beneficial than ball possession and/or passes in order to win the matches. Besides, having higher percentage of long passes and shooting on target more times presented 71% triumph chances. It also must be observed that making more crosses and corners do not bring big victories likelihood. Ultimately, showing high exploitation of goals in shots on target, even receiving more yellow cards, demonstrated 70% victories likelihood. This dissertation offers a methodological innovation that allows the identification of useful alternatives to increase winning chances, adds knowledge to the understanding that there is not a unique formula to have success and can help on football coach’s actions for subsidizing possibilities that better fit to the available resources.

Using data from the 2006 – 2013 English Premier League (EPL) seasons, this paper finds evidence that the Home Grown policy does not provide a differential effect. As a consequence of the ruling, however, EPL clubs have generally acquired more English players. While English players are detrimental to a club’s ability to achieve a top 4 finish in the pre-policy period, this paper finds that English players positively influence top clubs in the post-policy period. More specifically, a successful club in the pre-policy period is 18% more likely to achieve a top 4 finish in the post-policy period by acquiring more English players in response to the Home Grown ruling. Furthermore, these top clubs are able to maintain their pre-policy competitiveness by outspending their counterparts to acquire the most talented Englishmen. As such, this paper also finds that increasing club transfer expenditures favors EPL club success in the post-policy period.

Sedan 2012 har UEFA implementerat ett nytt regelverk vid namn Financial Fair Play, där klubblag måste följa denna reglering för att kunna delta i UEFA:s två största turneringar (Champions League och UEFA Europa League). Den större vikten av regleringen har lagts på en regel vid namn break-even rule som innebär att de relevanta kostnaderna inte får överstiga de relevanta intäkterna. Syftet med denna reglering är att förbättra den ekonomiska ställningen inom Europeisk fotboll, samt förbättra konkurrensbalansen i de olika ligorna.    Studiens syfte är att undersöka vilken ekonomisk effekt regleringen haft på fotbollsklubbar i den engelska högstaligan. Vidare är syftet att granska hur klubbarna förhållt sig till Financial fair play och hur klubbarna klarat implementeringen, detta för att se om klubbarna har stärkt deras position i hierarkin och hur konkurrensbalansen i ligan har påverkats. En analys av ekonomiska rapporter har genomförts för de klubblag som deltagit i den Engelska Premier League säsongerna 2005/2006-2014/2015. Den totala populationen för studien blev 36 lag. En totalundersökning har gjorts där studien använt sig av beräkningar som Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, C5 Ratio och Pearsons korrelationskoefficient. Studien har utgått ifrån regleringsteorin public interest theory, den nyinstitutionella teorin med fokus på den tvingande isomorfismen samt contest theory model för att kunna ge svar på studiens frågeställning. Det kan konstateras att lagen i Premier League förbättrat deras ekonomiska ställning efter att regleringen sattes i kraft. Break-even kravet har tvingat lag att ta mer hänsyn till ekonomin, detta kan ha i kombination med andra faktorer resulterat i en bättre ekonomisk utveckling. Vidare kan det konstateras att konkurrensbalansen har förbättrats överlag mellan lagen men samtidigt har den försämrats mellan topp fem och resterande, det vill säga konkurrensbalansen mellan lagen under topp fem har förbättrats. Det går dock inte att fastställa om den ekonomiska utvecklingen samt konkurrensbalansen förändring beror just på FFP.