El presente trabajo analiza la existencia de un vínculo entre el crédito privado empleado como proxy de desarrollo financiero y el comercio exterior, para ello usa un panel de datos de 9 años para 94 países. Los resultados obtenidos mediante el método generalizado de momento revelan que el crédito tiene un efecto positivo y significativo en la apertura comercial. Además, se encuentra una relación no lineal entre el crédito privado y el comercio internacional el cual demuestra que cuando los países superan cierto umbral crediticio el efecto del crédito en la apertura comercial deja de ser eficiente. Finalmente, se confirma un efecto diferenciado y adicional del crédito privado en la apertura comercial para países desarrollados. No obstante, se encuentra que los países en desarrollo, con sistemas financieros en progreso, tienen una brecha mayor para su crecimiento a diferencia de los países desarrollados con sistemas financieros avanzados. Dichos resultados tienen relevancia económica en tanto contribuyen a formular políticas económicas que incrementan la cantidad y calidad de crédito privado con el fin de mantener un nivel considerable de comercio exterior lo que contribuirá positivamente al producto bruto interno de cada país. / This paper analyzes the existence of a possible link between private credit used as a proxy for financial development and foreign trade in a nine-year data panel for ninety-four countries. The results obtained using the generalized method of moments reveal that credit has a positive and significant effect on trade openness. Furthermore, there is a non-linear relationship between private credit and international trade, which shows that when countries exceed a certain credit threshold, the effect of credit on trade liberalization ceases to be efficient. Finally, a differentiated and additional effect of private credit on trade openness for developed countries was confirmed. However, it is found that developing countries with financial systems in progress have a greater gap for their growth than developed countries with advanced financial systems. These results are economically relevant as they contribute to a form of economic policies that increase the quantity and quality of private credit in order to maintain a considerable level of foreign trade, which contribute positively to each country's gross domestic product. / Trabajo de investigación

Este trabajo de investigación se busca estimar el impacto que tiene el precio del cobre sobre la dinámica de los créditos al sector privado en la economía peruana. La literatura nos muestra que el crecimiento del crédito desmesurado puede debilitar el sistema financiero en una economía y más aún si esta depende de la exportación de commodities. El efecto de los denominados booms de commodities suelen llevar a incrementos atípicos en el crédito otorgado al sector privado. Este comportamiento a largo y mediano plazo puede conducir a crisis financieras. Para el caso del Perú, no solo se sigue el modelo primario exportador, sino que también se ha registrado en su economía un crecimiento persistente en los créditos otorgados al sector privado a lo largo de casi 20 años. Sumado a esto, la incertidumbre provocada por la guerra comercial EE. UU y China ha impactado en los precios de los commodities y la balanza comercial peruana ya que ha disminuido la demanda de cobre, la exportación principal del Perú, del gigante asiático, su mayor comerciante. Cabe resaltar que en este trabajo no se está tomando en consideración los posibles efectos de la actual crisis sanitaria causada por el SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). Dada la literatura sobre los orígenes de las crisis financieras y la coyuntura actual del Perú, se analizará el comportamiento del precio del cobre, commodity principal exportado del país, y su relación a largo plazo con el crédito total privado peruano. El periodo de análisis escogido es desde el 2004 hasta el primer trimestre del 2020 debido a que a partir de ese periodo es que el crédito demuestra un crecimiento inusual que se ha mantenido hasta la fecha. / This paper seeks to estimate the impact that the Price of the cooper has on the private credit Dynamic for the peruvian economy. Literature shows that excessive growth of private credit could have a negative effect on the financial system and it could be even worse if said economy is commodity dependent. The effect of the so called commodity boom usually leads to an unsual increase on the private credit. In the long run, if such behavior persists, it could end up in a financial crisis. For the peruvian case, not only are its economy commodity dependant but his economy has registered a persistent growth of the credit provided to the private sector for almost 20 years. Moreover, the uncertainty caused by the trade war between USA and China has impacted the prices of some of the most important commodities to Peru and therefore had negative implications on their comercial balance. Copper demand from China has decreased, copper been the main commodity exported by Perú and China its bigger partner. It should be noticed that this paper will not take in consideration the possible effects of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). By taking in consideration the literature about financial crisis and given the peruvian economic enviroment, in this work we will focus on analysing the intenational prices of cooper, main commodity exported by Peru, and it’s relationship with the private credit. Our time period will be from 2004 to the first quarter of 2020. / Trabajo de investigación

Post-crisis banking regulation development in the EU Abstract (EN) After the Global Financial Crisis and the subsequent European sovereign debt crisis, there was a clear need for changes in the EU regulatory framework. Insufficient regulation was identified as one of the main reasons why the crisis led to such far-reaching negative consequences in the financial system. This work aims to analyse the developments in the financial regulation in the EU banking system following the aforementioned crisis. It starts by outlining the banking regulation in place before the Global Financial Crisis, follows with the description of the crisis itself and the reasons behind it, and, finally, examines in detail the changes in the regulatory framework that were implemented in the EU in order to prevent the same scenario from happening in the future. This thesis presents the most significant regulatory changes that have occurred, such as the European System of Financial Supervision, implementation of Basel III in the EU through the Capital Requirements Directive and the Capital Requirements Regulation, creation of the Banking Union and the Deposit Guarantee Schemes Directive. It further analyses the reasons for the implementation of the aforementioned changes to the regulation, and, ultimately, tries to assess whether the...

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Background: Fifteen years after the Global Financial Crisis, and four years after the enactment of the Basel III Accord, our thesis aims to answer how banks adapted to the new capital requirements. The core objective of the Basel Committee of Banking Supervision was to improve regulation and supervision and address the previous legislation deficiencies. Capital adequacy requirements are crucial parts of the code in preventing national economies from recessions and making the banking sector more resilient. Purpose: Investigate how banks adapted to the increased capital requirements and what strategies did they use to fulfil the new rules? What are the implications of these changes on the business volumes of the banks?                 Method: Decomposing changes in the capital adequacy ratio and dummy variable regression analysis to control for systematic differences in the development of sample banks' business volumes across categories. Conclusion: The results show that the 1.7 percentage increase in risk-weighted capital ratio originated mainly from higher capital accumulation rather than lower risk weights or smaller asset volumes. Starting capital ratio and the change in capital ratio tend to slow the increase of business volumes. However, the net income to total assets ratio likely accelerated the exposure. Significant divergencies in the coefficients of the explanatory variables indicate a systematic difference in the sample banks' strategies in adapting to the stricter regulatory requirements.

I det här kandidatexamensarbetet undersöks vilka incitament som kan leda till att kommersiella fastigheter i Stockholms innerstad kan ha varit övervärderade under finanskrisen 2008. Uppsatsen diskuterar även vilka parametrar som kan bidrar till en ökad osäkerhet i fastighetsvärderingar under lågkonjunkturen och hur fastighetsägare eventuellt påverkar värderingen i en riktning som genererar ett större fastighetsvärde. Under 2007 tog finanskrisen sin början i USA. Banker i USA hade under en tid lånat ut pengar till individer med dålig betalningsförmåga, så kallade subprimelån. Tanken var att en värdestegring på husen skulle ske vilket då skapar en säkerhet för banken. Krisen spred sig till resten av världen när banken Lehman Brothers gick i konkurs den 15:e september 2008 och bidrog till en brist på likviditet i stora delar av världen. När krisen var ett faktum insågs att de tillgångar bankerna hade var övervärderade, exempelvis de hus som hade finansierats med dessa subprimelån. Frågan som ställs i den här uppsatsen är ifall kommersiella fastigheter var övervärderade i Stockholms innerstad till följd av samma kris. Slutsatsen som dras i kandidatexamensarbetet är att det finns anledning att misstänka att kommersiella fastigheter i Stockholms innerstad var övervärderade under finanskrisen 2008. Banker övervärderade systematiskt sina tillgångar fram till, och en bit under, krisen. Dessutom bedöms olika incitament och påverkansstrategier ha nyttjats i större utsträckning under krisen, vilket kan bidra till en övervärdering. / In this thesis we have conducted a literature study to determine which incentives in the commercial real-estate market have contributed to a possible overestimation of the value of commercial properties in downtown Stockholm during the financial crisis in 2008. The essay also discusses which parameters contributes to an increased uncertainty in valuations during the recession and how property owners possibly can influence these valuations in a direction positive for themselves. The US banks had since the early nineties been offering loans to individuals without any security, so called subprime loans. The rezoning behind this was a belief that there would be an increase in property values, and it would then create a security for the banks.In late 2007, the crisis began in the US and then spread to the rest of the world in 2008 when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt on the 15th of September. This bankruptcy contributed to a vast lack of liquidity around the globe. In the mist of this financial crisis, it was clear that the bank’s assets were highly overvalued, and amongst those assets were properties funded by subprime loans. The research question for this thesis is: “Were the commercial properties in downtown Stockholm overvalued as a result of the 2008 financial crisis?” The conclusion of our thesis is that the overvaluation of commercial properties in Stockholm and the 2008 financial crisis were highly correlated. Studies show that the bank’s assets were systematically overvalued leading up to the crisis, and for some time during as well. Incentives and influence strategies has been used to a great extent which contributed to the overvaluation of commercial properties.

This research study investigates the potential of cryptocurrencies in alleviating the consequences of the financial crisis and identifying new avenues for economic development in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, Greece. It is motivated by the significant economic downturn experienced by Greece following the 2008 financial crisis, which led to a risk of bankruptcy and a drastic reduction in GDP per capita, with the consecutive implementation of capital controls further disrupting the financial transactions in the country. The region under study is documented for its low economic development level and GDP per capita compared to the national and EU averages. Through a mixed-methods approach, including a questionnaire-based survey and data analysis, this study explores the perceptions and behaviors of consumers and business owners in that region regarding cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, the survey employs closed-ended questions delivered through an internet-based platform while using probability and non-probability sampling techniques to target consumers and business owners. Consequently, the collected data are examined through the scopes of descriptive and deductive analyses with the use of SPSS software, with the findings of this research aiming to shed light on the role of cryptocurrencies as a means to mitigate the impact of the financial crisis and stimulate economic activity in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace. The findings revealed that while participants did not believe that introducing a parallel digital currency would improve the Greek economy, consumers affected by the crisis showed eagerness to invest and transact in cryptocurrencies. Business owners, on the other hand, were hesitant to view cryptocurrencies as long-term assets and did not believe in their capacity to transform the region’s economy. The study's outcomes contribute to the growing body of knowledge on cryptocurrencies' adoption and potential benefits in regions facing economic challenges.

The global financial crisis that started in the USA affected several countries around the world. This study focuses on only three countries; the USA, Sweden, and Italy, which are examples of economies with three different labor market models. The purpose of this study is to investigate if and in that case how Okun's law was affected by the global financial crisis in the three countries’ labor market models and if there are any differences in the correlations before and after the global financial crisis. Okun’s difference version was used in this study. Quarterly time series data was used in this study during the time period 1985-2019. The Chow test was used to test the hypothesis. The results show that the global financial crisis affected Okun’s law after the crisis in all three countries. The USA, Sweden, and Italy were affected differently

Magister Commercii - MCom / The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is a controversial theory in Finance. Advocates of the EMH argue that it provides a basis for understanding financial markets while critics suggest that the hypothesis is unreasonable in its assumptions of the real function of these markets. Although the EMH may not be perfect, it provides a sufficient baseline against which financial markets may be analysed. Over the past couple of years, academics have broadly examined the EMH in both developing and developed financial markets. However, limited research has been done on African markets. Therefore, this study examines the weak-form EMH of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) after 2008 to ascertain the impact the 2008 global financial crisis had on its efficiency. This study analysed the JSE using weekly and monthly returns of the three major indices (RESI 10, FINI 15, INDI 25) as well as the individual companies under these indices from 30th January 2009 to 30th January 2019. Analysis was carried using various statistical tests i.e., runs test, variance ratio test, unit root tests, and a GARCH model which revealed mixed results. Results of the unit root tests (ADF and PP) confirm that the JSE is weak-form efficient when both the weekly and monthly data of the indices and individual companies are analysed. The results of the runs test reveal that all the weekly and monthly data apart from the weekly data of the companies under RESI 10 index exhibit weak-form efficiency. The variance ratio test confirms weak-form inefficiency when weekly data is used while the monthly data confirms weak form efficiency of the JSE and shows that the market moves from periods of efficiency to periods of relative predictability. The results of the GARCH model on the other hand confirm the weak-form efficiency of the JSE when both the weekly and monthly data of the indices are analysed.

Prior researchers (Anderson et al. 1994; Ballard & Johnson 2004; Hoag & Benedict 2010) have shown that different math abilities do not equally correlate with success in economics, yet no research has specifically compared algebra and geometry skills as predictors of economics success. In the first essay, I find that students’ standardized geometry scores are a much greater predictor of success in economics than standardized algebra test scores. The study uses a rich data set that includes all Georgia public high school students who took a mandatory economics course in 2006, 2007, or 2008. Results from this study provide supporting evidence that utilizing a generic math proxy is probably unwise for researchers modeling economics success. These findings can also be used to strengthen recruitment efforts since geometry scores seem to be a strong predictor of economics aptitude. Although causality cannot be inferred from my findings, it is plausible that a mandatory geometry course prior to economics would improve student outcomes in economics. In the second essay, I analyze the relationship between economics education and macroeconomic policy attitudes of the general public following the financial crisis of 2008. Using survey data of all 50 states, I find that economics literacy is correlated with preferences for three of the six policies preferences studied. Specifically, economics literacy is positively correlated with support for decreased taxes and a smaller government, and negatively correlated with supporting a ceiling on CEO salaries. Additionally, the completion of college and high school economics is positively associated with supporting a decreased role of government. While prior researchers (Roos 2007; Walstad 1997) found that economics literacy can influence policy preferences, there have been no prior studies, to my knowledge, that analyzed the effects of economics knowledge and economics course-taking on policy preferences within the same dataset. My results show that economics literacy and course-taking exert independent effects on macroeconomic preferences for some policies. Thus, any researcher predicting economic preferences should consider controlling for these economics literacy and economics course-taking variables. Furthermore, my findings suggest that the advancing prevalence of economics education could lead to a shift in public preferences.