Bakgrund: Globalt sett är översvämningar, näst efter stormar, den naturfara som orsakar mest ekonomisk skada. Inom Europeiska unionen (EU) fick översvämningar ett ökat fokus efter att Europa under 2002 drabbades av stora översvämningar. Mot denna bakgrund lanserades i oktober 2012 det EU-finansierade projektet STAR-FLOOD. Projektet mynnade ut i en guidebok för hur översvämningsrisker kan hanteras. I guideboken, skriven av Raadgever m.fl. (2016) rekommenderas en blandning av strategier (diversifiering), för hanteringen av översvämningsrisker. Inom EU har översvämningsrisker traditionellt hanterats genom fysiska skydd, vilket bara är en av flera strategier. I Sverige hanteras översvämningar främst i den akuta fasen och genom privata försäkringar. Översvämningsskydd har först på senare tid fått allt större betydelse för hur översvämningar hanteras i Sverige, något som kan exemplifieras genom den vall som ska byggas på Falsterbonäset i Vellinge kommun i sydvästra Skåne. Det finns en paradox med den typen av strukturella översvämningsskydd och det är att skydden faktiskt kan öka översvämningsrisken. Paradoxen kallas för levé-effekten och innebär att strukturella översvämningsskydd kan leda till en falsk trygghet hos dem som bor i det skyddade området. En diversifierad strategi för hantering av översvämningsrisker kan däremot minska risken för att levé-effekten uppstår. Syfte: Att studera i vilken mån en diversifierad strategi kan spåras i fallet med det planerade översvämningsskyddet på Falsterbonäset. Metod: En beskrivande fallstudie av hur översvämningsrisker från havet hanteras på Falsterbonäset. Materialet har i huvudsak samlats in genom kvalitativa intervjuer som sedan analyserats med riktad kvalitativ innehållsanalys. Som komplement till intervjuerna har även annat material analyserats, främst kommundokument. Den teori som studien grundas på är levé-effekten och teorin om riskhomeostas. Resultat: Mot bakgrund av guideboken skriven av Raadgever m.fl. (2016) är det möjligt för Vellinge kommun att vidta fler strategier för att minska sannolikheten för och konsekvenserna av översvämningar på Falsterbonäset. Exempelvis hade det varit möjligt att begränsa utvecklingen i det skyddade området och ställa tydliga krav på plushöjder för nybyggnation. Samtidigt har kommunens strategi aldrig varit så diversifierad som nu med anledning av det kommande översvämningsskyddet. Avslutningsvis finns det vissa indikationer på att en levé-effekt kan uppstå. / Background: In a global perspective are floods, after storms, the natural hazard that causes the most economic damage. Within the European Union (EU), floods gained increased focus after Europe was hit by major floods in 2002. Because of this, the EU-funded project STAR-FLOOD was launched in October 2012. Among other things, the project resulted in a guidebook for how flood risks can be managed. The guidebook, written by Raadgever et.al. (2016), recommends a mix of strategies (diversification) for the management of flood risks. Within the EU, flood risks have traditionally been managed through structural protection, being just one of several strategies. In Sweden, floods are managed mainly in the acute phase and through private insurance. Flood protection has recently become increasingly important for how floods are handled in Sweden, which can be exemplified by the levee that is to be built on Falsterbonäset in Vellinge municipality in Skåne. However, there is a paradox with this type of structural flood protection, and it is that these can increase the risk of flooding. The paradox is called the levee effect and means that structural flood protection can lead to a false sense of security in those who live in the protected area. A diversified strategy for managing flood risks can reduce the risk of the levee effect. Purpose: Study to which extent a diversified strategy can be traced in the case of structural protection that is planned structural on Falsterbonäset. Method: A descriptive case study of how flood risks from the sea are managed on Falsterbonäset. The material has mainly been collected through qualitative interviews which have then been analysed with a directed qualitative content analysis. As a complement to the interviews, other material has also been analysed, mainly municipal documents. The theory on which the study is based, is the levee effect and the theory of risk homeostasis. Results: Based on the guidebook by Raadgever et.al. (2016), it is possible for Vellinge municipality to do more to reduce the probability and the consequences of floods on Falsterbonäset. For example, it would have been possible to limit the development in the protected area and set clear requirements for heights for new buildings. At the same time, the municipality's strategy has never been as diversified as it is now, due to the forthcoming flood protection. However, there are some indications of conditions for a levee effect to occur.

Die Risikohomeostasistheorie (RHT) ist ein formales Konzept zur Erklärung menschlichen Verhaltens im Straßenverkehr bei verändertem Unfallrisiko. Vor dem Hintergrund des gegenwärtigen Standes der Ökonometrie weisen die Untersuchungen zur RHT mittels langer Zeitreihen einige Schwächen auf. Im folgenden wird versucht, diese Schwächen einerseits mit dem Stationaritätskonzept der Ökonometrie und andererseits mit einer auf Dummyvariablen basierenden Methode zu beheben. Gleichzeitig wird die Theorie einem neuerlichen Test auf ihre Gültigkeit hinsichtlich der Unfallsituation im Straßenverkehr in Deutschland unterzogen. Die Arbeit nimmt Bezug erstens auf die Wirksamkeit von Regulierungsmaßnahmen (hier: Verschärfung der Gurtanlegepflicht) und zweitens auf die Wirkungen der deutschen Wiedervereinigung. Beiden Ereignissen wird nach der RHT keine Wirkung zugesprochen. Die Ergebnisse der Analysen unterstützen die Thesen der RHT nur schwach. Sie belegen, daß konsequente und mit Strafandrohung belegte Regulierungsmaßnahmen entgegen dem Postulat der Risikohomeostasisthese eine stark positive Wirkung auf die Unfallsituation besitzen. Außerdem werden die komplexen Entscheidungsprozesse von Verkehrsteilnehmern im Kontext mehrerer theoretischer Konzepte untersucht. Es zeigt sich, das Theorien zur Beschreibung individuellen Verhaltens unter Unsicherheit sehr gut geeignet sind, tatsächliches Verhalten von Verkehrsteilnehmern zu erklären. / Risk homeostasis theory (RHT) is a behavioural theory of risk taking in road traffic. So far, most of the published papers concerning RHT and long time series are based on econometric methods which are not very well suited for this purpose. We propose here to address the issue using instead the econometric concept of stationarity and a concept based on dummy variables. We then test the RHT with German traffic accident data and specifically analyze compulsory traffic safety measures (the penalty for not using seat belts) as well as the effects of German reunification. Both are ineffective according to RHT. Our results, found by using several risk measures, show only weak evidence for RHT. Contrary to RHT, we can show that compulsory safety measures combined with penalties had a strict positive effect on the road traffic accident risk. We also develop a solution which focuses on the complex decision-making process of an individual in road traffic. This is done within the context of several theories explaining individuals decision-making under uncertainty. There we can show that these theoretical concepts are very well suited to explain actual behavior of road users.

國內通說將因果歷程偏離當作構成要件錯誤的一種類型。認為因果歷程作為故意認識的對象；並且對於因果歷程重要部分沒有認識，則阻卻故意。德國實務所提出的重要性理論（相當性概念與其他正當化評價事由之欠缺）是建立起國內通說看法的主因。不過，近年德國學界普遍對這種說法提出質疑，認為因果歷程偏離不再是「心理事實」的問題，而是「規範評價」的問題。因而從過去的錯誤理論漸漸轉向歸責理論。對於因果歷程偏離的難題也從「故意」範疇轉向「故意歸責」的範疇。在故意歸責層次下，德國學界提出幾種具體的處理方式，但都不脫離傳統部分主客觀對應的看法。本文認為透過檢驗行為人主觀與客觀事實間是否一致（或者部分一致），無助於解決因果歷程偏離的難題。結論上，本文提出一個嶄新的想法—「獨立評價說」，期待能適當且方便的解決因果歷程偏離的問題。 / The general opinion in Taiwan’s academia considers the error of causal course as an error occurred in the composing elements of a crime. The academia is also of the opinion that the intent of crime shall include the essential parts of the causal course. If any such part is left out of account, the intent of crime shall also be excluded. The theory of essentiality (Theorie der Wesentlichkeit) brought forward by the German court is the main fundation for the opinion of Taiwan’s academia. German authors have questioned this theory in the recent years. They hold that the problem of deviation of causal course is rather a problem of norm assessment rather than a problem of psychological facts. Thus the past fallacy has been gradually replaced by the theory of attribution of intention, and the research on deviation of causal course which was undertaken under the category of intention has also been changed to the category of attribution of intention. As regards the attribution of intention, the German authors have developed some specific approaches to solve the error of the chain of causation. Nevertheless, these resolutions are much the same, for they all emphasize a partial coincidence between the intent and the real causal course. As a conclusion, the author claims that the coincidence can't solve the problem of deviation of causal course, and proposes a new theory, - the theory of independent assessment, with the hope of facilitating the research of the problem of deviation of causal course.

Esta pesquisa se caracteriza, em termos metodológicos, na combinação dos métodos, analítico e dialético. Tem o enfoque voltado à discussão da imputação objetiva penal e sua possível tipificação, para os casos de lesões permanentes e óbitos nos acidentes de trabalho. O objetivo geral foi discutir a doutrina e a legislação pertinentes ao ambiente do trabalho nos campos da área civil e previdenciária, para, a partir da conceituação específica das condutas, verificar a imputação objetiva das responsabilidades pela ocorrência dos eventos danosos no ambiente do trabalho. Neste sentido esta pesquisa apóia-se no princípio do risco, através da teoria do risco permitido e do risco proibido. E se complementa na teoria do aumento do risco para discutir pela imputação objetiva das responsabilidades dos acidentes do trabalho ao administrador e de seus órgãos. / Submitted by Marcelo Teixeira (mvteixeira@ucs.br) on 2014-05-29T16:52:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Silvio Inacio Renner.pdf: 973581 bytes, checksum: 461dc72e40562f59f59cf1f1f8bf575c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-05-29T16:52:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Silvio Inacio Renner.pdf: 973581 bytes, checksum: 461dc72e40562f59f59cf1f1f8bf575c (MD5) / This research is built in a combination with the analytic and dialetic methods. It has the approach directed to a discussion of charging criminal objective and his tipificacion, for the cases of permanent injuries and deaths in work accidents. The general objective was to argue the pertinent doctrine and the legislation to the environment of the work in the fields of the civil and warfare area, therefore, from the specific conceptualization of the behaviors, to verify the objective imputation of the responsibilities for the occurrence of the harmful events in the work environment. In this sense this research is based on the principle of risk through the theory of the allowed risk and the forbidden risk. And it complements the theory of increased risk to objectively discuss the allocation of responsibilities of occupational accidents and employment-related accidents to the administrator.

Esta pesquisa se caracteriza, em termos metodológicos, na combinação dos métodos, analítico e dialético. Tem o enfoque voltado à discussão da imputação objetiva penal e sua possível tipificação, para os casos de lesões permanentes e óbitos nos acidentes de trabalho. O objetivo geral foi discutir a doutrina e a legislação pertinentes ao ambiente do trabalho nos campos da área civil e previdenciária, para, a partir da conceituação específica das condutas, verificar a imputação objetiva das responsabilidades pela ocorrência dos eventos danosos no ambiente do trabalho. Neste sentido esta pesquisa apóia-se no princípio do risco, através da teoria do risco permitido e do risco proibido. E se complementa na teoria do aumento do risco para discutir pela imputação objetiva das responsabilidades dos acidentes do trabalho ao administrador e de seus órgãos. / This research is built in a combination with the analytic and dialetic methods. It has the approach directed to a discussion of charging criminal objective and his tipificacion, for the cases of permanent injuries and deaths in work accidents. The general objective was to argue the pertinent doctrine and the legislation to the environment of the work in the fields of the civil and warfare area, therefore, from the specific conceptualization of the behaviors, to verify the objective imputation of the responsibilities for the occurrence of the harmful events in the work environment. In this sense this research is based on the principle of risk through the theory of the allowed risk and the forbidden risk. And it complements the theory of increased risk to objectively discuss the allocation of responsibilities of occupational accidents and employment-related accidents to the administrator.

La plupart des Américains ne sont pas préoccupés par les vaccins. Cependant, minorité petite mais vocale l’est, et un nombre croissant de parents américains reçoivent des exemptions de vaccination pour leurs enfants sur la base de la religion ou de «convictions personnelles». Le refus vaccinal peut avoir des conséquences désastreuses: dans certaines communautés, la couverture vaccinale infantile a plongé bien en deçà du seuil requis pour «l'immunité collective», permettant à des maladies comme la rougeole d'opérer un retour en force. L'hésitation vaccinale et le refus vaccinal sont souvent attribués au manque de connaissances ou de compréhension des « faits » scientifiques des anti-vaccins. La plupart des interventions de santé publique qui visent à promouvoir la vaccination reposent sur la simple diffusion de connaissances scientifiques fiables; la communication scientifique est perçue comme un processus à sens unique de diffusion des connaissances scientifiques. La théorie est la suivante : si les anti-vaccins savaient à quel point les vaccins sont sécuritaires, efficaces et nécessaires, ils vaccineraient davantage. Malheureusement, la littérature dans plusieurs disciplines suggère que de telles interventions d'éducation passive à l'échelle de la communauté sont généralement inefficaces pour persuader les anti-vaccins d'adopter des attitudes et des comportements pro-vaccination. Pourquoi? En m'inspirant des principes de transdisciplinarité d'Edgar Morin, de la théorie des révolutions scientifiques de Thomas Kuhn et de la méthodologie de revue méta-narrative de Trisha Greenhalgh, j'examine les publications de différents auteurs phares de différentes disciplines qui fournissent directement ou indirectement une réponse à cette question. Je distingue trois approches principales, qui diffèrent quant à leur explication générale des raisons pour lesquelles les interventions basées sur la simple diffusion de preuves scientifiques échouent. La première explication est que les anti-vaccins n'ont pas les connaissances scientifiques nécessaires pour comprendre les preuves scientifiques qui leur sont présentées. La deuxième est que la résistance des anti-vaccins aux preuves scientifiques peut s’expliquer par de nombreux biais cognitifs qui anènent les individus à faire des erreurs systématiques de jugement et à s'écarter ainsi de l’idéal décisionnel de la théorie du choix rationnel. Le troisième narratif sur les anti-vaccins met l'accent sur les influences socioculturelles. Selon la théorie de la cognition culturelle, la culture influence les perceptions du risque à travers des biais cognitifs. Ces trois narratifs sur l'hésitation et le refus de la vaccination sont examinés en profondeur afin de fournir une synthèse interdisciplinaire des facteurs qui peuvent expliquer l'échec des interventions de santé publique basées sur l'éducation à persuader les anti-vaccins. / Most Americans are not concerned about vaccines. However, a small but vocal minority is, and a growing number of parents are receiving vaccine mandate exemptions for their children on the basis of religion or “personal belief.” Vaccine refusal can have disastrous consequences: in some communities, childhood vaccination coverage has dived well below the threshold required for “herd immunity,” allowing diseases like measles to stage a forceful comeback. Vaccine hesitancy and refusal are often attributed to a lack of knowledge or lack of understanding of scientific “facts” on the part of antivaxxers. Most public health interventions that aim to promote vaccination rely on disseminating trustworthy scientific knowledge and see science communication as a one-way process of diffusion of scientific evidence. If antivaxxers knew how safe, effective, and necessary vaccines are, the theory goes, they would vaccinate more. Unfortunately, literature across disciplines suggests that such passive, community-wide education interventions are mostly ineffective at persuading antivaxxers to adopt pro-vaccination attitudes and behaviours. Why? Inspired by Edgar Morin’s principles of transdisciplinarity, Thomas Kuhn’s theory of scientific revolutions, and Trisha Greenhalgh’s meta-narrative review methodology, I examine the publications of different seminal authors across disciplines that directly or indirectly provide an answer to this question. I distinguish three main approaches, which differ as to their general explanation of why interventions based on simple dissemination of scientific evidence fail. The first explanation is that antivaxxers lack the scientific literacy that is necessary to understand the scientific evidence that is presented to them. The second is that antivaxxers’ resistance to scientific evidence can be explained by the numerous cognitive biases and “rules of thumb” that lead individuals to make systematic errors in judgment and thus deviate from the rational choice theory decision-making ideal. The third narrative stresses sociocultural influences. According to cultural cognition theory, culture influences risk perceptions through the mechanisms of cognitive biases and heuristics. These three narratives about vaccine hesitancy and refusal are thoroughly examined in order to provide a cross-disciplinary synthesis of factors that may explain the failure of education-based public health interventions to persuade antivaxxers.