This thesis focuses on the relationship between the real economy and the financial sector which gives rise to various amplification mechanisms known as financial accelerators. Historically, those channels are known to be in the roots of the world's largest crises such as the 2008 Great Recession. In its aftermath, policy-makers have undertaken various reforms that introduce macroprudential policy which focuses on the stability of the financial system as a whole. This thesis studies different financial amplification channels and the ability of macroprudential policy to mitigate their impact on the real economy in three chapters. The first chapter introduces different macroprudential tools into a macroeconomic framework with financial frictions and analyses their ability to mitigate the impact of a crisis originating from the financial sector to the real economy. The main finding of the paper is that sector specific tools can be effective if applied before the occurrence of the crisis, however, broader tools are much more effective once the crisis has spread to the economy. The second chapter expands the framework of the previous one, in order to provide a realistic representation of the current regulatory setting for capital requirements - the Internal Rating Based approach. The paper then studies the ability of the regulation to lead to procyclical capital requirements and thus amplify the business cycle and reduce social welfare. In order to avoid these consequences, an alternative policy rule is proposed which is able to mitigate the amplification effects. The third chapter focuses on the founding theory behind the current regulatory framework - the portfolio loss distribution (Vasicek, 2002) and expands it by introducing macroeconomic amplification mechanisms known as financial accelerators. The resulting portfolio distribution shows large losses to be substantially more likely which increases the fragility of the financial system and the amount of capital necessary to maintain its stability.

Miljörisker är risker som är relaterade till miljöproblem och hot kopplat till det. Hur människor i Sverige uppfattar det kan skilja sig runt om i landet. Den här studiens syfte är att undersöka uppfattningen och riskperceptionen hos människor i de två orterna Skoghall och Tullinge, samt hur samhällsstrukturer och kulturella världsbilder påverkar uppfattningen och synen på miljörisker relaterat till klimatförändringar och luftföroreningar. Studien använder en komparativ metod där riskperception och uppfattningar hos människor i de två orterna är egenskaperna som jämförs utifrån det teoretiska ramverket Cultural Theory of Risk. Fokusgruppsintervjuer används för datainsamling som genomfördes under två tillfällen i respektive ort, data analyseras med tematisk analys där mönster i intervjusvar beskrivs i form av teman. Studiens resultat visar att skillnader såväl som likheter kan hittas i uppfattning av miljörisker i båda orterna. Den största skillnaden mellan orterna är att det finns mångfald vad gäller synen på miljörisker på en lokal nivå i Skoghall än i Tullinge, där det visar sig råda mer samsyn. Den största likheten mellan orterna är hur nyheter och media med mera påverkar människors uppfattning av miljörisker på ett sätt som gör att de bland annat anser att klimatförändringar och luftföroreningars effekter skulle bli mer allvarliga utanför Sverige. Slutligen visar studien att det generellt finns en påverkan från samhällsstrukturer och kulturella världsbilder i riskperception hos människor som är delvis grunden till skillnaderna och likheterna mellan orterna. / Environmental risks are risks connected to environmental issues and threats that come with them. How people in Sweden perceive them can vary around the country. This study’s purpose is to examine the comprehension and perception of environmental risks linked to climate change and air pollution in the two localities of Skoghall and Tullinge. How social structures and cultural worldviews are affecting them is also examined. The study is using a comparative method where the risk perception and comprehension of the people in the two localities are the characteristics that are compared, based on the theoretical framework of Cultural Theory of Risk. Focus group interviews are used to collect data with two interviews that is made in each locality, the data is analyzed with Thematic analysis where patterns in the interview answers are described through themes. The result of this study shows that there are differences and similarities between the localities when it comes to the comprehension of environmental risks. The greatest difference between the localities is that there is more of a diversity in perception of environmental risks on a local level in Skoghall than in Tullinge, where there is more of a consensus on the matter. The greatest similarity between the localities is regarding how news and media etc. are influencing people’s comprehension of environmental risks in a way that they, among other things, think that the effects of climate change and air pollution would be more serious outside of Sweden. Finally, the study shows that there is a general effect from social structures and cultural worldviews on the risk perception of people in both localities, which is partially the cause of the differences and similarities between them.

Globalt råder det en enad bild av hushåll som en viktig aktör i krishanteringssystem. Stor del av den tidigare forskningen har visat på att hushåll i Sverige saknar en hemberedskap för att klara sig i 72 timmar utan hjälp från myndigheter, men inte anledningen till varför så är fallet. Därmed identifierades en kunskapslucka om varför vissa hushåll förbereder sig medan andra inte gör det. Syftet för denna studie var därför att finna en förklaring till varför en del hushåll förbereder sig medan andra inte gör det. För att uppfylla syftet användes teorin Relational Theory of Risk vilken förklarar varför och hur individer uppfattar risker och därefter agerar för att förebygga riskerna. Den valda metoden var semi-strukturerade intervjuer med 6 stycken hushåll i Boden kommun, där inriktningen på intervjuerna var vilka risker respondenterna identifierade som hotfulla mot deras hushåll, vilka förberedelser de vidtagit samt hur god deras hemberedskap var. Resultatet visade på att hushåll som hade en lägre riskmedvetenhet hade en sämre hemberedskap respektive de hushåll som hade en högre riskmedvetenhet hade en bättre hemberedskap. Slutsatsen som drogs var att vilka risker hushållen identifierade påverkade deras hemberedskap.

The contributions of this thesis have mainly a dual purpose: introducing several multivariate statistical methodologies where in the major of the cases only stationary of the random variables is assumed, and also highlight some of the applied problems in risk management where extreme value theory may play a role. Mostly every chapter is selfcontained, they have its own more detailed introduction and short conclusion. / Die Kontributionen von dieser Dissertation haben ein doppeltes Ziel: die Darstellung von vielen multivariaten statistischen Verfahren, wobei in der Mehrheit der Fälle nur Stationarität von den Zufallsvariablen angenommen wurde, und die Anwendungen in Risikomanagement in welchem Extremwerttheorie eine wichtige Rolle spielen könnte. Die Struktur der Arbeit ist eigenständig, mit einer detaillierten Einführung und kurzen Zusammenfassung in jedem Kapitel.

A key attribute of resilience, robustness serves as a predictor of infrastructure system performance under disruptions, thus informing proactive infrastructure risk management. A literature review indicated that previous studies did not consider some key factors that can influence the robustness of Air Transportation Infrastructure Networks (ATIN) and thus their (system-level cascade) systemic risk management processes. In this respect, the current study first assesses existing and then develops a new methodology to quantify the robustness of ATIN. Specifically, based on integrating travel time and flight frequency, the study develops alternative best route and link weight approaches to assess key ATIN robustness measures and relevant operating cost losses (OCL). In order to demonstrate the practical use of the developed methodology, the robustness and the associated OCL of the Canadian Domestic Air Traffic Network are evaluated under random failures (i.e., disruptive events that occur randomly) and targeted threats (i.e., disruptive events that occur deliberately). The analysis results show that the network robustness is influenced by the utilized evaluation approach, especially after 20% of the network components become nonoperational. Overall, the methodology developed within this study is expected to provide ATIN policymakers with the means to quantify the network robustness and OCL, and thus enable ATIN resilience-guided proactive risk management in the face of natural or anthropogenic hazard realizations. / Thesis / Master of Applied Science (MASc)

Applying utopian theory to the Bible reveals a number of issues surrounding the biblical text within academic disciplines such as biblical studies, which study the Bible as an ancient cultural artefact, and among religious readers of the Bible. The biblical passage Numbers 13 was chosen as a case study of a utopian reading of the image of the Promised Land to demonstrate the Bible’s multifaceted potential by externalising the presupposition brought to the text. The underlying method is derived from an ideal type procedure, appropriated from Weber. Instead of comparing phenomena to each other, one compares a phenomenon to a constructed ideal type. This method enables one to compare phenomena independently of exclusive definitions and direct linear influences. It has been suggested by biblical scholars that utopian readings of the Bible can yield insights into socio-political circumstances in the society which produced biblical texts. Using observations by Holquist about utopias’ relationships to reality it is asked if applying the concept of utopia to a biblical passage allows drawing conclusions about the originating society of the Hebrew Bible. The answer is negative. Theory about literary utopias is applied to the case study passage. Numbers 13 is similar to literary utopias in juxtaposing a significantly improved society with a home society, the motif of travellers in an unfamiliar environment, and the feature of a map which is graphically not representable. Noth’s reading of the biblical passage’s toponyms reveals that its map is a utopian map. Numbers 13 is best understood as a literary utopia describing an unrealistic environment and using common utopian techniques and motifs. Despite describing an unrealistic environment, the passage was understood as directly relevant to reality by readers throughout time, for example by Bradford. Following two Puritan readings, it is observed that biblical utopian texts have the potential of being applied in reality by those who see them as a call to action. If a literary utopia is attempted to be brought into reality, it becomes apparent that it marginalises those who are not utopian protagonists; in the case study passage, the non-Israelite tribes, in Bradford’s reading, the Native Nations in New England. The interplay of utopia and dystopia is explored and it is concluded that a definitive trait of literary utopias is their potential to turn into an experienced dystopia if enforced literally. This argument is supported by demonstrating that the utopian traits of the case study passage contain dystopian downsides if read from a different perspective. A contemporary utopian reading of the case study passage is proposed. Today utopian speculation most often appears in works of science fiction (SF). Motifs appearing in the case study passage are read as tropes familiar to a contemporary Bible reader from SF. Following D. Suvin’s SF theory, it is concluded that the Bible in the contemporary world can be understood as a piece of SF. It contains the juxtaposition of an estranged world with a reader’s experienced world as well as a potential utopian and dystopian message.

The frequency and severity of floods have increased due to climate change and achieving successful disaster risk reduction is deemed crucial to attain preparedness and sustainability. The responsibility for society’s preparedness mainly resides with local public actors. However, several Swedish municipalities have insufficient flood risk management. Research within disaster risk reduction suggests that risk can be understood as socially constructed and produced, highlighting the relevance of exploring risk perceptions. Yet, previous research has mostly been concerned with objective dimensions of risk and largely neglected social dimensions, such as decision-makers’ risk perceptions. Ridolfi and colleagues’ theoretical contribution to Cultural Theory of Risk suggests four types of ideal societies, or perceptions, which ultimately affect flood risk management: risk neglecting, risk monitoring, risk downplaying, and risk controlling perceptions. Yet, the theoretical work has not been applied empirically. This study aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of local public actors’ perceptions of flood risk and how this in turn may be connected to different flood risk management strategies. This thesis adopts a comparative case study design and explores the topic by applying Ridolfi and colleagues’ theoretical contribution to the municipalities of Karlstad and Kristinehamn. While Kristinehamn has been criticized for insufficient flood risk management, Karlstad has been put forward as a front runner in disaster risk reduction. Surprisingly, the results show that the municipalities reason in similar ways about flood risk, suggesting that the proposed differences between the two may be overestimated. Both municipalities believe in the capacity of technical hard-adaptive measures manipulating the environment and thus largely correspond to the risk controlling perception. However, the municipalities differ in some respects, as it can be argued that Karlstad shows signs of a risk monitoring perception whereas Kristinehamn shows signs of a risk neglecting or downplaying perception, potentially shedding light on the slightly varying approaches. In essence, the study’s utilization of the theory indicates that decision-makers’ subjective risk perceptions are important to explore in order to understand flood risk management approaches and subsequently important processes to achieve overall preparedness and sustainability. By exploring municipal actors’ perceptions of flood risk, the study not only contributes empirically by applying mentioned theoretical contribution for the first time, but also adds to the wider body of the theoretical knowledge on the significance of decision-makers’ risk perception for risk reduction, and thus contributes to a better understanding of the social dimensions of risk.

In the West African country Ghana, which has a history of poor natural resource management, discovery of offshore petroleum resources in 2007 and subsequent commercial production in 2010 (with British multinational Tullow Oil as lead operator) is a potential source of potential wealth and inequality. Using the Cultural Theory of Risk, Social Amplification of Risk Framework, and the Corporate Sustainability Framework — a proposed model—as theoretical foundations, this dissertation examines corporate sustainability practices, communication, and their implications for local residents’ risk perceptions, corporate reputation, and risk management. The study also assesses how cultural worldviews and informational networks (e.g., an environmental group, opinion leaders, and media) amplify or attenuate residents’ risks perceptions. Data were collected via interviews with key actors including a non-governmental organization (NGO), a survey of a representative sample of Half Assini residents in one of the six coastal districts that adjoin Ghana’s offshore petroleum region, and analyses of Tullow’s corporate social responsibility (CSR) reports and other communication texts. Extant worldview and corporate reputation measures were also developed/adapted and tested. The study finds support for the view that cultural worldview and affect are associated with public risk perceptions. Thus, individuals who (a) do not subscribe to the worldview that government ought to regulate corporate behaviors, (b) show a relatively high sense of attachment to their communities, (c) rate the images associated with Ghana’s offshore oil production favorably, and (d) rate the images associated with Tullow Oil positively are more likely to be worried that Ghana’s offshore oil production poses significant risks for the country and their local communities. Regarding corporate sustainability communication, the study observes that Tullow uses a predominantly technical, expert-driven approach, which seeks to discursively position it as an aspirational, engaged, and responsible organization. While critiquing Tullow’s corporate sustainability and communication approach, the research also argues that corporate sustainability (CSR and risk) communication has the potential to constitute desirable corporate practices and could ultimately culminate in meaningful social change. Theoretical contributions to risk perception, risk management/communication, corporate reputation, and CSR communication are discussed. Practical implications for advocacy, corporate practices, and public participation in environmental decision-making are discussed.

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Cette thèse a pour but le développement de certains aspects de la modélisation de la dépendance dans la gestion des risques en dimension plus grande que un. Le premier chapitre est constitué d'une introduction générale. Le deuxième chapitre est constitué d'un article s'intitulant « Estimating Bivariate Tail : a copula based approach », soumis pour publication. Il concerne la construction d'un estimateur de la queue d'une distribution bivariée. La construction de cet estimateur se fonde sur une méthode de dépassement de seuil (Peaks Over Threshold method) et donc sur une version bivariée du Théorème de Pickands-Balkema-de Haan. La modélisation de la dépendance est obtenue via la Upper Tail Dependence Copula. Nous démontrons des propriétés de convergence pour l'estimateur ainsi construit. Le troisième chapitre repose sur un article: « A multivariate extension of Value-at-Risk and Conditional-Tail-Expectation», soumis pour publication. Nous abordons le problème de l'extension de mesures de risque classiques, comme la Value-at-Risk et la Conditional-Tail-Expectation, dans un cadre multidimensionnel en utilisant la fonction de Kendall multivariée. Enfin, dans le quatrième chapitre de la thèse, nous proposons un estimateur des courbes de niveau d'une fonction de répartition bivariée avec une méthode plug-in. Nous démontrons des propriétés de convergence pour les estimateurs ainsi construits. Ce chapitre de la thèse est lui aussi constitué d'un article, s'intitulant « Plug-in estimation of level sets in a non-compact setting with applications in multivariate risk theory», accepté pour publication dans la revue ESAIM:Probability and Statistics. / In this PhD thesis we consider different aspects of dependence modeling with applications in multivariate risk theory. The first chapter is constituted by a general introduction. The second chapter is essentially constituted by the article “Estimating Bivariate Tail: a copula based approach”, actually submitted for publication. It deals with the problem of estimating the tail of a bivariate distribution function. We develop a general extension of the POT (Peaks-Over-Threshold) method, mainly based on a two-dimensional version of the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan Theorem. The dependence structure between the marginals in the upper tails is described by the Upper Tail Dependence Copula. Then we construct a two-dimensional tail estimator and study its asymptotic properties. The third chapter of this thesis is based on the article “A multivariate extension of Value-at-Risk and Conditional-Tail-Expectation” and submitted for publication. We propose a multivariate generalization of risk measures as Value-at-Risk and Conditional-Tail-Expectation and we analyze the behavior of these measures in terms of classical properties of risk measures. We study the behavior of these measures with respect to different risk scenarios and stochastic ordering of marginals risks. Finally in the fourth chapter we introduce a consistent procedure to estimate level sets of an unknown bivariate distribution function, using a plug-in approach in a non-compact setting. Also this chapter is constituted by the article “Plug-in estimation of level sets in a non-compact setting with applications in multivariate risk theory”, accepted for publication in ESAIM: Probability and Statistics journal.