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Erfassung von Zeitpräferenzen, Risikoeinstellungen und verhaltensökonomischen Effekten – Experimentelle Ansätze am Beispiel landwirtschaftlicher Unternehmer / Experimental approaches to measure farmers’ risk preferences, time preferences and cognitive biasesHermann, Daniel 08 February 2016 (has links)
No description available.
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Mezičasová volba osob romského etnika a většinové populace / Time preferences among Romany and non-Romany ethnic group. Influence of demographic and socio-economic characteristics on the rate of time preference and discounting models.Rybáková, Nina January 2010 (has links)
This thesis deals with the differences in time preferences, individual discount rates, among non-Romany (Czechs) and Romany ethnic group in the Czech Republic. Subjects of almost homogenous ethnic groups -- low income, low education, currently unemployed -- were subjected to experiments based on an in-depth questionnaire (Romany N = 35, N = 25 non-Romany). In addition to time preferences, their relationship with the socio-economic and demographic characteristics was inspected. The sub-tests showed a difference across ethnic groups in regard to the discounting models. Romany ethnic group is better characterized by an inconsistent model compared to the non-Romany using an more consistent model. Participants from both groups, however, appear to be very impatient, with discount rates closer to the values of individuals dependent on addictive substances. Probably because of insufficient sample size, no statistically significant correlation was found between the discount rates and socio-economic and demographic factors. Financial (il)literacy among Romany proved to be an important factor affecting the formation of savings. Finally, the recorded signal effect of expenditures on signal goods among the Romany ethnic group is briefly analyzed.
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Samhälleliga tidspreferenser : En stated preference-studie med ansatsen att undersöka individers renatidspreferenser / Societal time preferences : A stated preference study with the objective to investigate individuals’pure time preferencesBilén, David, Österlund, Jacob January 2015 (has links)
Bakgrund: För att ge vägledning till hur samhället skall värdera nutida effekter gentemotframtida, exempelvis att rädda liv eller fördela samhälleliga investeringar, har ekonomergenomfört stated preference-studier med syfte att undersöka individers samhälleligatidspreferenser. Studiernas resultat har producerat en stor variation kring hur individervärderar framtida utfall jämfört med nutida. Resultaten har dock tolkats som att individer,även om tidspreferenserna varierar i storlek, värderar framtida utfall lägre än nutida. ShaneFrederick genomförde 1999 en studie, som Frederick benämnde som ett ”robusthetstest” avden dittills använda metodiken, där han i motsats till tidigare studier inte bara erbjödrespondenterna ett nutida utfall jämfört med ett framtida, utan även erbjöd respondenternaolika sekventiella fördelningar över tid. Resultaten kontrasterade tydligt tidigare studiersresultat, respondenterna föredrog exempelvis att rädda liv fördelat på tre generationer iställetför endast i deras egen – vilket indikerade att respondenterna hade negativa tidspreferenser!Inga uppföljningsstudier har därefter genomförts.Syfte: Att undersöka individers samhälleliga tidspreferenser när de erbjuds sekventiellafördelningar över tid.Metod: Två enkätundersökningar genomfördes vid Linköpings universitet. Respondenternaställdes inför olika sekventiella fördelningar för räddandet av liv och samhälleligaupprustningar, såväl i ett intra- som ett intergenerationsperspektiv.Slutsats: Vi finner ej stöd för att en majoritet av individerna värderar framtida samhälleligaupprustningar eller att rädda framtida liv, lägre än nutida. Vi finner heller ej stöd för attindividers tidspreferenser endast innefattar en preferens för den tidshorisontella absolutafördelningen (nutid gentemot framtid). I både ett intra- och ett intergenerationsperspektivföredrog den största andelen av respondenterna en jämn fördelning över tid. I ettintragenerationsperspektiv, där vi erbjöd individerna olika sekventiella fördelningar över tid,påverkades respondenternas val av den relativa fördelningen över tid. Alla resultatuppvisades för både räddandet av liv och samhälleliga upprustningar. / Background: To give guidance for societal policy decisions on how to value future effectscompared to present, economists have used stated preference methodology to measureindividuals’ societal time preferences. The results have produced a great variety in the size ofindividuals’ time preferences, but have in general at least concluded that individuals valuefuture effects less then present. Shane Frederick performed in 1999 what he called a “test ofrobustness” of the methodology used in previous studies. Instead of just offering individualsto choose from an outcome today towards an outcome x years from now, he also offeredrespondents outcomes sequentially spread out across time. The results contradicted those ofprevious studies. For example 80% of the respondents preferred to save 300 lives across 3generations instead of 300 in their own – which implied negative time preferences! Nofurther follow up studies have been performed.Objective: Investigate individuals’ societal time preferences, when they are offeredsequential outcomes over time.Methodology: Two questionnaires where handed out at Linköpings university. Therespondents where offered different sequential outcomes over time for saving lives and whenpublic investments should occur, in as well an intra- as an intergenerational perspective.Conclusion: Our findings do not indicate that a majority of the individuals value savingfuture lives less then present lives, or that they value future public investments less thenfuture investments. Neither do they indicate that individuals’ societal time preferences onlyincorporate the absolute time horizontal aspect. In both an intra- and an intergenerationalperspective the largest fraction of the individuals preferred an equal distribution over time. Inan intragenerational perspective, where we offered individuals different sequentialdistributions, the individuals choice where affected by the relative distribution over time. Allfindings where present both for saving lives and public investments.
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Myopia, retirement planning and commitmentHolmes, Craig January 2011 (has links)
Decisions made by individuals planning for retirement may be myopic. One way of capturing this myopia is with quasi-hyperbolic discounting. It is well known that such preferences may explain why individuals fail to provide an adequate retirement income for themselves. In this thesis, the quasi-hyperbolic discounting model is applied to a number of other decisions and outcomes related to planning for retirement. There are three main focuses. Firstly, the thesis considers a model where individuals are quasi-hyperbolic discounters over both retirement and saving, and extends the results of Diamond and Köszegi (2003). It argues that mechanisms designed to overcome myopic saving decisions may lead to unplanned early retirement. This may depend on the form of income in retirement -- regular income options such as annuities offer commitment over overconsuming early in retirement, which makes early retirement less desirable to myopic retirees. Secondly, it tests these predictions using a new laboratory experiment. Over a two-month period, participants were asked to attend weekly sessions, and could leave the experiment (or "retire") in any week of their choosing. Part of their payment for attending these sessions was put aside and paid only after they had left. The results indicated that more impulsive individuals left the experiment earlier, both overall and relative to plans made in the first week of the experiment. Finally, this thesis presents a model of rising wages as a forced saving mechanism. Assuming individuals face some borrowing constraints, deferred wages implicitly place some earnings aside until much closer to retirement, when quasi-hyperbolic discounters save a greater fraction of their income, increasing total retirement wealth. It also shows that demand for rising wages should disappear for people with access to more direct saving commitment mechanisms, although when these schemes offer less commitment (due to early withdrawal or early retirement options), a combination of both mechanisms is preferred.
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The Influence of Time and Risk Preferences on Financial Behaviour and Financial Well-being : Results from a National Survey / Tids- och riskpreferensers påverkan på finansiellt beteende och finansiellt välmående : Resultat från en nationell undersökningNyström, Jakob, Romberg, Karin January 2017 (has links)
Previous research has shown time and risk preferences to be important factors when explaining a variety of behavioural patterns, such as smoking, obesity and savings behaviour, while we focus on the effect on financial behaviour and financial well-being. Financial behaviour is measured using a twelve-item scale with individuals’ self-stated reports of for example savings behaviour and credit card usage. To measure financial well-being, we construct a measure consisting of individual’s self-perceived current and future financial condition. Time preferences are revealed by matching questions and we use different ways of measuring risk, both self-stated risk attitudes and risky choices revealed by gambles. Our results show that increased short term patience, leads to better financial behaviour. Also, individuals with higher financial risk attitudes, exhibit better financial behaviour. Contradictory, regarding actual decisions, the impact is different and being loss averse, has a positive impact on financial behaviour. Financial well-being is on the other hand influenced positively by both more short and long term patience. It also increases with general and financial risk attitudes. Risky choices do not have an impact on financial well-being. We show that risk preferences are affected by time preferences. Having a high short term discount rate leads to higher financial risk attitudes and increases the likelihood of being loss averse, while it decreases the likelihood of being risk averse. Our results are important for understanding heterogeneity in financial decision making and the financial well-being it fathers. This quantitative study is based on a large, representative sample of the Swedish population (N=2063). / Tidigare forskning har visat att tids- och riskpreferenser är viktiga faktorer när man försöker förklara olika beteendemönster, såsom rökning, övervikt och sparande. Vi fokuserar på tids- och riskpreferensers effekt på finansiellt beteende och finansiellt välmående. Finansiellt beteende mäts genom tolv frågor, där individer exempelvis anger hur ofta man sparar eller använder kreditkort. För att mäta finansiellt välmående, konstruerar vi ett mått baserat på individens självupplevda nuvarande och framtida ekonomiska tillstånd. Tidspreferenser mäts genom “matching questions” och vi använder flera riskmått, både individers angedda riskattityder och riskfyllda val som visas genom riskfyllda spel. Våra resultat visar att ökat tålamod på kort sikt leder till bättre finansiellt beteende. Dessutom uppvisar individer med högre finansiella riskattityder bättre finansiellt beteende. I motsats till detta uppvisar dock, vid faktiska beslut, förlustaversiva individer bättre finansiellt beteende. Finansiellt välmående påverkas, å andra sidan, positivt av både kort- och långsiktigt tålamod. Det förbättras också av både högre generella och finansiella riskattityder. De riskfyllda valen påverkar inte finansiellt välmående. Vi visar att tidspreferenser påverkar riskpreferenser. Att ha högre tålamod på kort sikt leder till högre finansiell riskattityd och ökar sannolikheten för att vara förlustaversiv, medan det minskar sannolikheten att vara riskaversiv. Våra resultat är viktiga för att förstå heterogen finansiell beslutsfattning och det finansiella välmående det leder till. Denna kvantitativa studie baseras på ett stort, representativt sampel av den svenska befolkningen (N=2063).
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Časové preference u ghanských pěstitelů kakaa / Time Preferences of Ghanaian Cocoa FarmersSobková, Eva January 2016 (has links)
Agricultural technology adoption in developing countries is an interesting topic for two reasons: there is often a gap between the realized and potential hectare yields, and agriculture is an important source of livelihood for a signi_cant part of the third world population. This thesis is attempting to analyze the relationships between time preferences of the Ghanaian cocoa farmers and their willingness to use fertilizers provided on a microcredit basis. It is using mainly basic statistical tests, contingent tables analysis and the logistic regression to find out whether the farmers who are patient and time consistent have different approach to technology adoption than the impatient and time inconsistent farmers. We also test for differences in time preferences between farmers with different gender, age and education, and we find that the younger farmers tend to be more impatient. The main conclusion of this work is that impatient and hyperbolic farmers are more likely to enter a microcredit program. We cannot present any significant inference about the link between the farmers' time preferences and their decision to leave a microcredit program. JEL Classification C12, C14, D9, G2, O13, Q14 Keywords Technology adoption, time preferences, mirco- credit, developing economics, cocoa cultivation...
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On the economics and the psychology of intertemporal choices / Sur l'économie et la psychologie des choix intertemporelsYin, Rémi 11 December 2018 (has links)
L’objectif de cette thèse est de contribuer à la littérature en économie en analysant trois déterminants psychologiques dans la manière dont les individus prennent des décisions dans le temps en utilisant des approches et des méthodologies issues de l’économie et de la psychologie. Ainsi, le premier chapitre de cette thèse analyse théoriquement la demande des individus pour des dispositifs d’engagement pour lutter contre leur propre préférence pour le présent. Cette étude théorique est illustrée par une expérience en laboratoire sur la perte de poids. Le deuxième chapitre étudie empiriquement l’impact des conditions de travail sur les comportements de santé des individus à la lumière de la littérature en psychologie sur l’autorégulation. Le troisième chapitre propose une traduction et une validation de l’échelle des aspects de l’identité et montre que l’analyse économique des préférences individuelles peut bénéficier de la ré-introduction de la subjectivité de l’identité personnelle. Enfin, le dernier chapitre de cette thèse explore dans quelle mesure cette subjectivité de l’identité personnelle peut être importante pour comprendre les choix intertemporels. / The objective of this thesis is to contribute to economic literature by analysing three psychological determinants in the way individuals make decisions over time, using approaches and methodologies from economics and psychology. Thus, the first chapter of this thesis theoretically analyses the demand for commitment devices to overcome their own present-bias. This theoretical study is illustrated by a laboratory experiment on weight loss. The second chapter empirically examines the impact of working conditions on individuals’ health behaviours in the light of the psychological literature on self-control. The third chapter proposes a translation and validation of the Aspects of Identity Questionnaire and shows that the economic analysis of individual preferences can benefit from the reintroduction of the subjectivity of personal identity. Finally, the last chapter of this thesis explores the extent to which this subjectivity of personal identity can be important in understanding intertemporal choices.
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Reduction of Working Time in Austria. A Mixed Methods Study Relating a New Work Time Policy to Employee PreferencesGerold, Stefanie, Nocker, Matthias 05 1900 (has links) (PDF)
This mixed-methods study examines factors determining employees' desire to reduce worktime. The results of a binary logit regression model, based on data from the Austrian Microcencus 2012, suggest that employees who prefer shorter weekly working hours are older, higher educated and work longer hours in white-collar positions, compared to those who do not wish to change their hours. Gender differences are greatest in terms of household and family characteristics, supporting the 'male breadwinner & part-time' model. Qualitative interviews have been conducted among employees who had the possibility to choose between a pay increase and equivalent leisure time via a new worktime policy ("Freizeitoption") implemented in 2013. The results suggest that employees with higher education tend to reduce worktime. The fact that money is valued from a long-term, security perspective, as well as the tendency of assessing work performances by output indicators can be regarded as major obstacles for worktime reductions. / Series: WWWforEurope
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Préférences inter-temporelles et qualité de l’insertion professionnelle : trois applications microéconométriques / Time preferences and professional insertion quality : three micro-econometric studiesBen Halima, Bassem 08 November 2010 (has links)
En opposant "la passion pour la jouissance présente" au "désir d’améliorer notre condition", Adam Smith soulignait dès 1776, l’importance capitale des préférences inter temporelles pour expliquer la richesse et la prospérité économique des nations. Au niveau microéconomique, la modélisation des choix inter temporels conduit à s’intéresser au taux d’intérêt psychologique que revendique un agent économique lorsqu’il doit arbitrer, entre une unité de consommation présente et une unité de consommation future. L’arbitrage inter temporel et les effets de l’impatience sont présents dans deux des principaux modèles comportementaux en économie du travail : la théorie du capital humain et la théorie de la recherche d’emploi. Toutefois, dans la plupart des modèles issus de ces deux théories, la prise en compte des préférences inter temporelles est confrontée à deux problèmes. Le premier problème est lié à la modélisation des préférences inter temporelles qui se limite à la simple introduction d’un facteur d’actualisation. Le deuxième problème est que les comportements de préférence pour le présent relèvent pour l’économètre du domaine des facteurs d’hétérogénéité inobservable. Lors de cette thèse, nous abordons une dimension particulière du rôle des préférences inter temporelles sur la qualité de l’insertion sur le marché du travail. Plus précisément, nous avons à mettre en lumière l’impact des préférences inter temporelles (impatience) sur le taux de sortie du chômage, sur l’hétérogénéité des issues lors de la transition du chômage à l’emploi et enfin sur la décision de suivre une formation professionnelle et ses conséquences sur le salaire dans l’emploi. / By contrasting "the passion for present enjoyment" to "desire to improve our condition", Adam Smith pointed out in 1776, the importance of intertemporal preferences to explain the wealth and prosperity of nations. In the microeconomic, the intertemporal choices modelling leads to analyse of psychological interest rate expressed by the economic agent when he trades off between present consumption unit and future consumption unit. Intertemporal trade-off and impatience effects are present in two major behavioural models in labour economics: human capital theory and job search theory. However, in the most models of these theories, the intertemporal preference analysis presents two problems. The first problem is related to intertemporal preferences modelling, which is limited to only the introduction of a discount factor. The second problem is that the impatience behaviour is unobservable factor in the econometrics studies. In this thesis, we focus a particular aspect of intertemporal preferences role on the quality of labour market insertion. Specifically, we highlight the impact of intertemporal preferences (impatience) on the exit rate from unemployment, on the different destinations in the transition from unemployment to employment, and finally, on the decision to pursue vocational training and its impact on wages in employment.
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La structure par terme du taux d'escompte psychologique : estimation et incidences sur les préférences face au risque et sociales / Term structure of psychological discount rate : estimation and its incidences on risk and social preferencesOuattara, Aboudou 18 June 2015 (has links)
La théorie de l’utilité actualisée proposée par Samuelson (1937) est un des paradigmes dominants en économie et en gestion particulièrement en finance où elle sert de socle, entre autres, au Modèle Intertemporel d’Equilibre des Actifs (ICAPM) et à sa version incluant la consommation (ICCAPM). En dépit de cette place, sa validité pour expliquer les préférences temporelles des individus a été questionnée dans des travaux de recherche récents ouvrant la voie à des amendements et à la remise en cause de ce cadre d’analyse. Ces travaux ont introduit, entre autres, le concept de structure par terme du taux d’escompte psychologique. La littérature a proposé sept alternatives à la fonction d’escompte exponentielle contenue dans la version initiale de la théorie de l’utilité actualisée. Il s’agit des fonctions d’escompte de Hernstein, de Harvey, Proportionnelle, de Laibson, de Rachlin, Hyperbolique et Hyperbolique généralisée.Faisant suite à ces travaux, nous avons initié une recherche visant à apporter une réponse à la question relatives aux caractéristiques de la structure par terme du taux d’escompte psychologique d’un individu et les facteurs qui expliquent sa différence d’un individu à l’autre ; ses liens avec les autres dimensions des préférences (face au risque et sociales) individuelles sont explorés par la suite. Il s’est agi d’identifier parmi ces fonctions celles qui sont cohérentes avec les préférences individuelles observées, d’estimer les paramètres associés, d’étudier la cohérence des préférences temporelles d’un individu. Elle s’appuie sur les données issues d’une étude expérimentale basée sur dix huit arbitrages inter-temporels, quatre arbitrages de loteries, le jeu du dictateur, le jeu de l’ultimatum et le jeu de confiance.L’analyse des données a permis de confirmer les résultats précédents sur la violation de la constance du prix psychologique du temps, la cohérence par domaine des préférences temporelles, d’établir que la population étudiée est caractérisée par une hétérogénéité par rapport à la forme de la structure par terme du taux d’escompte psychologique. Les individus sont caractérisés par une fonction d’escompte psychologique de Hernstein, hyperbolique généralisée ou de Laibson. Nous avons trouvé que les caractéristiques démographiques, l’environnement social et l’orientation temporelle expliquent peu les différences de structure par terme de taux d’escompte psychologique. Les différences de niveaux d’application (dimension des traits de personnalités) sont les principaux déterminants de la différence de structure par terme de taux d’escompte psychologique caractéristiques des préférences temporelles. Nous avons enfin établi qu’il existe une faible relation entre les paramètres des préférences temporelles, face au risque et sociales.L’ensemble de ces analyses nous ont permis de dériver des conclusions par rapport aux hypothèses de recherche que nous avons formulées et d’interroger la validité de chacune d’elles dans la perspective de déduire les réponses à la problématique de notre recherche. / The discounted utility theory proposed by Samuelson (1937) is one of the dominant paradigms in economics and management especially in finance where it serves as a basis of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) and its version including consumption (ICCAPM). Despite this place, its validity has a framework to explain individuals time preferences has been questioned in recents researches paving the way for amendments and questionings of this framework. Among others, these reseaches introduce the concept of term structure of psychological discount rate. Therefore, a part from exponential discount rate function, we find in the literature seven alternatives discount rate function : Hernstein, proportional, Laibson, Rachlin, Hyperbolic and generalized hyperbolic.Following this work, we initiated a research to provide an answer to the question on the characteristics and driving factors those explain its heterogeneity at an individual level. Thereafter, its relationship with other dimensions of individual preferences (risk and social interaction behavior) are explored. The purpose is to identify among them, the function that is consistent with the observed time preferences, to estimate the underlying parameters and to study the consistency of individual time preference. This research is based on the data collected by experimental study using eighteen time trade-offs, four lottery trade-offs, a dictator game, an ultimatum game and a trust game.Data analysis confirmed previous results on the violation of the time invariant of the psychological value of time hypothesis and established that the studied population is characterized by an heterogeneity with respect to the form of the term structure of psychological discount rate. Individuals are characterized by an Hernstein, Generalized hyperbolic or Laibson psychological discount rate. We found that demographic, social and temporal orientation have a weak link with the individual differences of the term structure of psychological discount rate. Application (a dimension of personality traits) is the most important driving factor of term structure of psychological discount rate forms heterogeneity. We finally established that there is a weak relationship between the parameters of time, risk and social preferences.
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