O presente estudo tem por objetivo discutir as perspectivas para a produção, exportações, importações, preços e níveis de bem-estar (excedente do produtor e do consumidor) para o setor de carne bovina no MERCOSUL frente a alguns cenários de acordos comerciais, tais como de redução tarifária em nível multilateral bem como de acordos comerciais bilaterais entre o MERCOSUL e outras regiões. Foi utilizado um Modelo de Alocação Espacial formulado como um Problema de Complementaridade Mista (PCM), e para sua construção primeiramente é feita a estimação das funções de oferta e demanda de carne bovina para as onze regiões determinadas na dissertação, que são separadas espacialmente pelos custos de transporte. Além desses custos, existem as barreiras comerciais, aqui representadas pelas tarifas. O nível de bem-estar é maximizado nessas regiões e se obtém produção, consumo, preços, fluxos comerciais e se pode calcular os níveis de bem-estar dos produtores (EP), dos consumidores (EC) e o nível de bem-estar agregado para cada uma das onze regiões. Dessa forma, obteve-se o Cenário Atual mundial de carne bovina, sendo que a partir desse cenário base são feitas simulações de redução tarifária multilateral e de acordos comerciais entre o MERCOSUL e outras regiões para se analisar o que ocorre com as variáveis já mencionadas. A partir do Cenário Atual foram simulados quatro cenários de redução tarifária multilateral e dois cenários de acordos comerciais bilaterais. No Cenário Atual as regiões MER e OCE são exportadoras e as demais produzem para consumo interno e dentre estas algumas são importadoras (NAF, ASE, CHI, JAP e CEI). Quando se analisa o nível de bem-estar dos produtores de MER, o livre comércio é o cenário que mais traz benefícios a esses agentes. A segunda melhor opção para os produtores de carne bovina de MER seria a imposição de um teto de 15% nas tarifas de importação de todas as regiões. As outras opções seriam, ordenadas a partir daquelas que trazem maiores benefícios para as que trazem menores, o cenário de tarifas à metade, o cenário do teto de 30%, seguido do cenário de livre comércio MER-JAP e por fim o cenário de livre comércio MER-CHI. O nível de bem-estar de todos os agentes na região MER (produtores e consumidores), denominado excedente total ou ET, encontra-se na mesma direção que o nível de bem-estar dos produtores. Entretanto, o nível de bem-estar dos consumidores na região MER no cenário de livre comércio diminui em relação ao cenário atual, sendo necessárias políticas públicas compensatórias aos consumidores de MER no caso de implantação de redução tarifária. / This study aims to analyze perspectives for production, exports, imports, prices, consumer surplus and producer’s surplus for bovine meat in MERCOSUR considering some scenarios of trade agreements, such as tariff reduction in multilateral level as well as trade agreements between MERCOSUR and other regions. It is used a spatial model using a Mixed Complementarity Problem (MCP), and to formulate it is necessary to estimate demand and supply functions for eleven regions that are determined in this work and spatially separated by transportation costs. Besides this cost, there are trade barriers that are represented in this study like tariffs. Using MCP it is maximized the welfare in eleven regions and it is obtained production, consumption, prices, trade flows, and the producer’s and consumer’s welfare level can be calculated, as well as the aggregate welfare level for each one of the eleven regions. Therefore, it is obtained the world bovine meat Actual Scenario, considering that this scenario is the basis for simulations of multilateral tariffs reduction and trade agreements between MERCOSUR and other regions to know what happens concerning the variables mentioned. With the results of Actual Scenario it is simulated four scenarios considering multilateral tariffs reduction and two scenarios of bilateral trade agreements. In the Actual Scenario MER and OCE regions are exporters and the others produce for their own consumption. Among these last ones, some are importers (NAF, ASE, CHI, JAP and CEI). When it is analyzed the MER producer’s welfare level, the free trade situation brings more gains for this category. The second best option for the MER producers is the scenarios with tariffs until 15%. Other options are: scenario with half tariffs, scenario with tariffs until 30%, bilateral trade agreement MER-JAP, and the situation with less aggregate gains for MER is the bilateral trade agreement MER-CHI. The aggregate welfare level in region MER goes at the same direction that MER producer’s welfare level. However, the MER consumer’s welfare level goes to the opposite direction, considering that the major losses for this group are in free trade scenario. If any level of free trade is implemented, the suggestion is compensatory public policy for the agents that are prejudiced.

This paper provides a non-technical overview of NEG models dealing with policy issues. Considered policy measures include alternative categories of public expenditure, international tax competition, unilateral actions of protection/liberalisation, and trade agreements. The implications of public intervention in two-region NEG models are discussed by unfolding the impact of policy measures on agglomeration/dispersion forces. Results are described in contrast with those obtained in standard non-NEG theoretical models. The high degree of abstraction limits the applicability of NEG models to real world policy issues. We discuss in some detail two extensions of NEG models to reduce this applicability gap: the cases of multi-regional frameworks and firm heterogeneity.

This paper provides a non-technical overview of NEG models dealing with policy issues. Considered policy measures include alternative categories of public expenditure, international tax competition, unilateral actions of protection/liberalisation, and trade agreements. The implications of public intervention in two-region NEG models are discussed by unfolding the impact of policy measures on agglomeration/dispersion forces. Results are described in contrast with those obtained in standard non-NEG theoretical models. The high degree of abstraction limits the applicability of NEG models to real world policy issues. We discuss in some detail two extensions of NEG models to reduce this applicability gap: the cases of multi-regional frameworks and firm heterogeneity.

This thesis analyze the economic development and FDI prospects in the context of the Free Trade Agreements that Mexico has signed in the context of NAFTA with the United States and Canada, as well as EU-MEXICO FTA with the European Union. The analysis will be focused around the regional allocation of FDI, the analysis of the main industrial sectors where FDI lands and on the most active foreign investors in the country. However, a new series of reforms and measures to advance liberalization have triggered the interest of other countries to invest in Mexico; Most notably, from Europe. These new FDI inflows are being allocated in different regions and shifting away from manufacturing industries into the service sectors and on to new investment opportunities in strategic industries.

Estudio de caso para optar al grado de Magister en Estrategia Internacional y Política Comercial / El Tratado Integral y Progresista de Asociación Transpacífico (CPTPP por sus siglas en inglés) ha sido uno de los acuerdos plurilaterales más importantes firmados a la fecha. Está compuesto por 11 economías pertenecientes a la región Asia Pacífico y fue firmado en Chile el 8 de marzo de 2018. Y es precisamente este país el cual ha mantenido una interesante estrategia con respecto a la negociación y firma del CPTPP, debido a que Chile ya cuenta con acuerdos comerciales con todos los miembros, por lo que sus beneficios comerciales no serían estructuralmente significativos. El objetivo de este trabajo se centra en explicar la participación de Chile en el CPTPP a pesar de que fue el país con menos incentivos comerciales para ingresar a las negociaciones y que además contó con oposición en sectores de la sociedad civil y del Congreso. Para esto se realizará un análisis del contexto externo, interno y de los actores involucrados en el proceso con el fin de identificar las razones por las cuales Chile decidió ser parte de este mega acuerdo comercial. / The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, (CPTPP) has been one of the most important plurilateral agreements signed to date. It is composed of 11 economies belonging to the Asia Pacific region and was signed in Chile on March 8, 2018. And it is precisely this country which has maintained an interesting strategy with respect to the negotiation and signing of the CPTPP; because Chile has already has commercial agreements with all members, so their commercial benefits would not be structurally significant. The objective of this paper is to explain Chile's participation in the CPTPP, despite the fact that it was the country with the least commercial incentives to enter the negotiations and that it also had opposition in sectors of civil society and Congress. For this, an analysis of the external, internal context and of the actors involved in the negotiation process will be carried out in order to identify the reasons why Chile decided to be part of this mega commercial agreement.

The advent of trade in services theory has been a developing research topic since 1980, where various factors are in place to determine trade flows and the impact of regulatory frameworks and policies. Services trade is an important contributing factor towards economic objectives and continues to drive development. With growth in services trade across the globe there is increased value in understanding the impact of the services sector on the African continent. The evolving reliance on services towards globalisation in low-income economies is proven to contribute significantly to gross domestic product. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement was instituted to integrate economies by creating ease of access for the intra-trade of goods and services across the continent. This study aimed to explore the impact of the AfCFTA agreement on a regional financial services provider. The research followed a semi-structured interview methodology, which measured and tested the impact of the agreement on trade in services for this qualitative study. The results indicated that the service provider would adopt the AfCFTA agreement’s requirements in the expansion of its operations, to establish services across the continent. Although the minimum number of countries required supported the ratification process, a lot of work is needed to develop and understand the effect of international trade, on the back of reformative policy changes such as the AfCFTA agreement. / Mini Dissertation (MPhil)--University of Pretoria, 2019. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / MPhil / Unrestricted

While concessions to labour mobility at the international level seem off the agenda, with the General Agreements on Trades in Services essentially tabled, the past decades have produced a proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs), some of which are facilitating labour mobility specifically. In this paper, the author first conducts a comparative overview of RTAs that have a form of labour mobility programmes: namely, ECOWAS, ASEAN, the European Union, NAFTA, CARICOM and MERCOSUR. Building on an overview of the regulatory frameworks, institutions and legal instruments of these RTAs, the author seeks to find if patterns or lessons to be learned emerge that are relevant from a global perspective and to enhance the legal architecture of international labour mobility. The findings show positive outcomes, with some RTAs generating trade benefits and even moving forward with a common passport based on the newly shared regional identity, and at times even creating dispute settlement and legal systems for regional litigious matters. On the other hand, this exercise also points to various problems such as the poor implementation of the labour mobility provisions, to overly strict restrictions based on skill and to difficulty securing documents to benefit from the labour mobility programmes - in some of the agreements. In the second part, the author discusses these challenges faced in these regional systems. She notes that prioritising skilled as opposed to low-skilled workers has not yielded a comparative advantage and may also be fostering irregular movements. She also highlights that trade liabilities emerge from the association of countries with similar levels of development and that it accentuates the North-South paradigm. These problems disrupt access to the benefits of the programmes, which ultimately creates irregular migrations and uneven labour standards for migrant workers. Finally, the author finds that most RTAs reviewed are developing their own legal frameworks with limited interest for the international instruments available, which are at best a source of inspiration. In the third part, the author invites the reader to challenge many preconceived ideas on international mobility emerging from the first two sections, and shares her thoughts on ways forward to build an international framework, based on existing scholarly work and considering the unpopularity of the GATS. She concludes with a discussion on ‘new regionalism’ as an alternative until a shared international framework to facilitate migrations is set up, with the possibility of a merger between RTAs from the North and the South. This, she argues, could possibly unleash the full benefits of labour mobility such as increased GDPs, poverty reduction and tackling irregular migrations; benefits that have not been entirely felt to date.

Customs services are increasing and becoming more important as global and cross-border trade increases. New trade agreements are developing which changes the prerequisites for actors concerned by the customs market. The customs industry is in many cases old-fashioned where customs service providers are making declarations by hand. The purpose of this study is to gain a deeper understanding about development of customs services based on the parameters: technology, trade blocs, climate issues and customer requirements. This study is based on a deductive approach where a qualitative method has been used for data collection. The data collection has been done by interviewing people from various companies and organizations with significant knowledge within the customs area. With support of the interviews and theoretical learnings a presumptive future of the customs industry has been developed. The results were constructed by assembling learnings from the interviews and are visualized based on the four parameters. Quality and price are important factors that reflect all the respondents’ answers regarding the customer requirements of the industry. Reputation and the opportunity to cover a larger geographical area are also parameters that the respondents mentioned. In the upcoming years there are demands regarding more data integration and digitalization between customs service providers and companies within the industry. This digitalization might help companies to evaluate and use trade agreements. Environment is a topic that is constantly being noticed in all industries, the customs industry as well. Common to the respondents was that climate issues will generate a future of more national and local nature. We see an increased degree of protectionism according to respondent seven. Block chain is a technology that has received increased attention lately, which leading to the question of whether this is something that customs companies should consider. In the future, blockchain may be worth investing in, but at the moment there are several limitations with the technology.

Emissions keep rising, states keep trading, and Earth will be 1.5°C warmer within five years. These are results of inadequate global governance. As globalisation has brought complexity to the international settings, creating overlapping webs of interactions: no International Organisation has properly responded. In this context, we are now situated in a trade regime complex with overlapping rules and norms, but what agency can be claimed? The thesis investigates the trade-environment nexus by addressing how legitimate climate leadership in a trade regime complex is pursued.   By challenging the conventionality of international leadership theory with a separation from hegemony and applying it outside multilateral negotiations, the thesis found it applicable for this new setting. Through mixed methods, statistics and textual analysis, the United States (US) Preferential Trade Agreements (PTA) were a surprisingly fitted case for this. To understand climate leadership performance and underlying objectives for such, the TREND database was adopted. Within, all US PTAs are shown and to what extent it has adapted 294 environmentally-related norms. Coded into means for leadership, the US legalistic approach of structurally directing others to mitigating measures seems to be a double-edged sword. Done right, it creates non-derogative measures. Done wrong, it creates a hegemon.

Many studies consider the potential for preferential trade agreements (PTAs) to have differing effects on trade. Kohl (2014) and Baier et al. (2019) show that some PTA’s promote trade while the majority of PTAs have no significant effect. Some even lower trade. Why do these differing cases arise? One possibility is that the effects of trade agreements depend on specific provisions – provisions that differ across agreements. Another possibility is the potential for PTAs to impact trade differently depending on the presence of certain bilateral characteristics between trading nations such as physical distance or metaphorical types of distance such as culture or language. In my dissertation, “Heterogeneous Effects of Trade Agreements on Trade,” we explore these two avenues separately.In the first chapter we consider if differences in the prevalence of corruption between members of a PTA make trade agreements more or less effective at boosting trade. Such differences could create more uncertainty that limits the potential for trade even if a trade agreement lowers barriers, implying that such agreements will not boost trade. On the other hand, trade agreements could be most effective in such disparate countries. Not only might trade agreements remove barriers used by corrupt officials to extort firms, but a trade agreement could reduce the uncertainty of operating in a different business environment by establishing rules and regulations. Results in this paper are allowed to differ across several dimensions, including extensive versus intensive margin, whether the exporter or importer is more corrupt, and between South-South and South-North trade. Using a gravity model of trade spanning a panel of countries from 1996 to 2017, we find that PTAs increase trade more along the intensive margin when importing countries are more corrupt but boost trade more along the extensive margin when exporting countries are more corrupt. Results are stronger for trade between South-South (S-S) countries than between North-South (N-S) countries. Chapter two examines how specific provisions within trade agreements – particularly, provisions regarding environmental standards – affect trade between members and non-members. While there is a rising trend to incorporate different types of environmental provisions in preferential trade agreements (PTAs), few studies took explicit steps to assess the trade consequences of environmental provisions in PTAs. This paper employs a gravity model over the period from 1984 to 2016 and uses a new detailed dataset on a broad range of environmental provisions in PTAs to fill the gap in the literature by looking at possible trade diversion effects from trade agreements with deep environmental clauses. We follow Mattoo et al. (2017) and construct an index that captures importers’ average depth of trade agreements with the rest of the world where depth is taken as the extent that environmental provisions are covered. The inclusion of this depth variable allows us to see if any trade diversion effect arises from trade agreements with deep environmental provisions. We specifically focus on exporters with low environmental standards, as those are the countries that are likely to “host” trade in environmentally unsustainable goods. We also differentiate between different types of environmental policies and concentrate on trade in “dirty” products. Our results suggest that environmental provisions in PTAs are an effective tool of promoting environmentally sustainable trade in the world, as these types of policies tend to reduce “dirty” trade even with non-member nations. Finally, the third chapter considers the heterogeneous design of PTA’s more broadly, looking at the trade effects of different policy areas within trade agreements, while differentiating their impact on trade in new product varieties of goods versus trade in existing products. We specifically focus on 18 “core” provisions that Hofmann et al. (2019) mark as most economically relevant policies. We further distinguish three types of policies within the “core” group of provisions, namely: i) provisions that directly liberalize trade through either reduction in tariffs or simplification of standards, ii) policies that enable signatory nations to compete on equal grounds, and iii) provisions that specify the rules of investment. Previous studies that consider the effects of trade agreements on the margins of trade have either focused on the effects of different types of PTAs, rather than specific policies, or used limited data and outdated methodologies. We are contributing to the literature by assessing the impact of different groups of policies on the margins of international trade using a highly disaggregated dataset covering a large number of countries and years. We also employ Factor Analysis to check robustness of our findings using regular count indices. Our results indicate that provisions that tend to reduce barriers to trade through either simplification of standards or reduction in monetary charges tend to increase trade in existing varieties of goods, while the effect of investment provisions is either insignificant or might actually lower trade.