This dissertation consists of three essays in which I study the political economy of trade agreements. Using detailed information from lobbying reports filed under the Lobbying Disclosure Act, I systematically explore the role played by both the winners and the losers of globalization. The first chapter focuses on the winners, large multinational firms lobbying in favor of the ratification of free trade agreements. The second chapter looks at these winners when they lose, studying the impact of the non-ratification of a trade agreement on their profits. The last chapter focuses on labor interests and trade unions, the losers of globlalization.The first chapter (joint with Paola Conconi and Mathieu Parenti) is focused on firms. We show that the political economy of free trade agreements (FTAs) is dominated by large firms engaged in international trade that support the ratification of these agreements. We develop a model of endogenous lobbying on FTAs by heterogeneous firms, which can explain why only large pro-FTA firms select into lobbying. The model also delivers predictions on the intensive margin of lobbying. In line with these predictions, we find that larger firms spend more supporting a given FTA, and individual firms spend more supporting FTAs that generate larger gains – i.e. larger improvements in access to foreign consumers and suppliers and smaller increases in domestic competition – and that are more likely to be opposed by politicians.The second chapter (joint with Moritz Hennicke) is an event study on the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and the subsequent shock to U.S. trade policy – the non-ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). We provide empirical evidence that corporate lobbying on trade agreements matters for corporate profits. We find that stock prices of companies that lobbied in favor of the TPP underperformed following Trump’s election. On the intensive margin, we find a strong and positive relationship between the amount spent in lobbying and the cumulative losses of lobbying firms. Finally, by comparing the original TPP agreement with its newer version (CPTPP), without U.S. participation, we provide evidence that firms’ lobbying activity was related to having some specific provisions included in the agreement. In the third chapter, I focus on the role played by trade unions, studying both their lobbying expenditures and their campaign contributions to politicians. I first show that unions are the main opposing force to the ratification of FTAs, and that larger unions, operating in tradable sectors, are more likely to lobby against FTAs. I then study union’s PAC contributions to political parties. During the last three decades, more than 90% of unions’ PAC contributions were directed to Democratic candidates. This has drastically changed when the Republican party took a more protectionist stance under Trump. I find that unions that lobbied against the ratification of FTAs started contributing more to Republican congressmen, particularly those who have taken an anti-trade stance. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay estimates a demand function for compressed natural gas as a fuel substitute to diesel fuel for firms with hybrid fleets. The data is from the Energy Information Administration, for the years 1989 to 2009, for 47 states. Results show that an increase of $0.10 in the price of diesel fuel will increase compressed natural gas demand by 5.59%. The second essay focuses on regional trade agreements (RTAs). A number of studies have found that RTAs significantly increase members' trade flows. While recent studies have begun to explore the reasons for this, none have examined whether the RTA trade effect varies systematically with the number and type of policy areas covered by the agreement. While the empirical trade literature has shed considerable light on the trade-creating ability of RTAs (Grant and Lambert, 2008), much less is known about why these agreements are so successful. In this study, we draw on a new database from the World Trade Organization of trade policy areas covered by RTAs to examine whether the degree of trade liberalization is an important determinant of the RTA trade effect. An augmented, theoretically consistent gravity equation is developed to explore the effects of RTAs on trade, conditional on the policy areas they include. In particular, we investigate two policy areas that are particularly important for agricultural trade, sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) and technical barriers to trade (TBT). The results suggest that harmonization of non-tariff measures inside RTAs matters: Agreements that liberalize these policies increase members' agricultural trade by an additional 62 percent compared to agreements that do not. We conclude that studying the components of RTAs -- in particular, the policy areas covered by these agreements -- is important when analyzing the determinants of RTA trade effects. The third essay uses Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to study the effect of membership in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the predecessor to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the WTO on trade flows. Existing GATT/WTO literature is not univocal as to whether membership in the GATT/WTO increases trade flows. In this study, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is used in the presence of theoretical uncertainty to address whether membership in the GATT/WTO plays a role in the gravity model. Several datasets are examined: a dataset from a previous study; and two datasets compiled for this study, world trade and agricultural trade. Results show, for all three sets of data, that membership in the GATT/WTO does belong in the gravity equation and increases trade flows. / Ph. D.

As European colonialism was the dominant system of long-distance governance and resource appropriation for centuries, its economic legacies are diverse albeit understated. The existing research looks mainly at the effects of colonialism on a former colony's internal development. This study broadens that scope, looking at which factors are correlated with the presence or absence of a trade agreement with the European Union as well as the number of restrictions to free trade within them. This was carried out through four large-n regressions. The first compared current former- and non-colony trading partners. The second narrowed the scope by comparing only former colonies. The third measured the number of restrictions among all current European Union trade agreements. The fourth measured trade restrictions among former colonies. The results are that various identity, developmental and intuitional variables are correlated with the existence of trade deals and the number of restrictions they contain.

No description available.

The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) is a unilateral trade liberalization program in which developed countries offer non-reciprocal tariff reductions (tariff preferences) on certain products imported from designated developing and least developed countries. GSP is considered an important tool in the World Trade Organization's approach to development. This dissertation--composed of three essays--explores whether low-income countries have achieved an increased access to high-income markets as a result of these non-reciprocal tariff preferences offered to their exports. The first essay provides an overview of the GSP program. The second essay presents an evaluation of the GSP program by considering the products and markets where low-income countries' exports are concentrated. Using a theoretically consistent gravity equation for primary and processed agri-food trade over the period 1962-2010, the results illustrate that the GSP program and modifications of it have delivered significant positive effects in developing countries' exports to developed country markets in agricultural trade but not necessarily so in non-agricultural goods. The third essay develops two theoretically founded novel indices to measure preference margins offered by high-income countries to low-income countries through tariff reduction. One index captures the restrictions bilateral tariff rates impose on market access conditions of a country as compared to the most favored nation rate, called the Exponential Trade Restrictiveness Index (ETRI). The other index captures the relative ease with which a country can access foreign markets compared to its competing suppliers, called the Exponential Relative Preferential Margin (ERPM). Then, these two bilateral indices are used to develop a model of sector-based bilateral trade to re-evaluate the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) in terms of relative market access preferences. The results show that the GSP has increased relative market accessibility for low-income countries and in turn boosted exports from these countries by 26 to 28 percent. / Ph. D.

No / This book explores economic developments across Europe in relation to its apparent segmentation, as disparities widen between core and periphery countries. In contrast to previous literature, the scope of analysis is extended to Europe as a continent rather than confining it solely to the European Union, thereby providing the reader with greater insight into the core/periphery nexus. The authors commence with a critical appraisal of economic thinking in relation to regional trade agreements and monetary integration. In relation to a number of EU economies, the book addresses issues of a liquidity trap, deflation, and twin deficits, together with the interconnection between exchange rates and current account balances. Importantly, they extend the discussion of segmentation through a series of focused case studies on Russia, Brexit and emergence of the mega-regionals.

O debate atual sobre as consequências da proliferação de Acordos Comerciais Regionais surge no meio de uma crise de governança no comércio internacional, o qual também questiona o papel da OMC como Organização Internacional que governa este cenário através de princípios e normas multilaterais. No entanto, cientes desta situação, os Estados parecem manter esforços para lidar com tais problemas através da negociação de mecanismos multilaterais para melhorar a governança do sistema multilateral. O Comitê de Acordos Comerciais Regionais (CRTA) que existe há mais de duas décadas é uma peça-chave para compreender as razões pelas quais tais esforços parecem infrutíferos, considerando o fato de que se trata do órgão multilateral encarregado do controle de Acordos Regionais. Assim, a presente pesquisa procura analisar o trabalho e evoluções desse Comitê, considerando diferentes fatores que incidem em seu desempenho, e determinar se um trabalho como o feito pelo CRTA poderia ser uma eficiente forma de governar as relações que surgem da atual organização da produção internacional. / The current debate about the consequences of the proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements arises in the middle of a governance crisis in international trade, which has also put into question the role of the WTO as an International Organization governing this scenario through multilateral principles and rules. However, aware of this situation, States seem to keep making efforts to deal with these problems through the negotiation of multilateral mechanisms to enhance the governance of the international trade system. The Committee on Regional Trade Agreements (CRTA), existing for more than two decades, is a key piece to understand why these efforts seem fruitless. This research attempts to analyze its work and evolutions, considering different factors that have incidence in its performance, and to determine if it is possible that a work such as the performed by the CRTA could be an efficient way to govern the relations arising from the current organization of international production.

Esta tese aborda o desenvolvimento da regulação internacional sobre o comércio de serviços educacionais, em especial nos acordos preferenciais de comércio de Austrália, Chile, China, Cingapura, Estados Unidos, Índia e União Europeia. O seu objetivo foi avaliar o atual nível de liberalização comercial da educação superior no plano global, de modo que sua compatibilidade com o direito à educação pudesse ser criticamente analisada, assim como os seus possíveis impactos sobre a regulação da educação superior no Brasil. Para tanto, a pesquisa começa pela realização de entrevistas com atores que acompanham o processo de comercialização da educação superior no Brasil. Os passos seguintes envolvem a compreensão do funcionamento das disciplinas internacionais sobre o comércio de serviços, da formulação das posições no processo negociador e, finalmente, dos compromissos em serviços de educação superior em acordos preferenciais de comércio. Uma primeira hipótese é de que, mesmo sem acordos de comércio, o mercado brasileiro já se encontra significativamente liberalizado no que diz respeito aos investimentos estrangeiros em educação superior, sem qualquer restrição ao ingresso de capital internacional. Ainda assim, a regulação internacional do comércio de serviços aprofundaria esse processo a partir da ideia de consolidação do marco regulatório liberal doméstico e de mecanismos que conduzem à aceleração do processo de liberalização comercial. / This thesis analyses the development of international regulation on trade in educational services, especially in preferential trade agreements signed by Australia, Chile, China, Singapore, United States, India and the European Union. The goal was to determine a parameter of the current global level of trade liberalization on higher education, so that the compatibility between trade agreements and the right to education could be critically examined, as well as their possible impacts on the regulation of higher education in Brazil. Therefore, the research began by conducting interviews with professionals that accompany the commercialization process in the Brazilian higher education sector. The following steps involved understanding the operation of international disciplines on trade in services, the formulation of positions in the negotiating process, and finally, the commitments on higher education services in preferential trade agreements. A first hypothesis is that, even without trade agreements, the Brazilian market is already significantly liberalized regarding foreign investment on higher education, without any restriction on the inflow of international capital. Even so, international regulation on trade in services would deepen this process from an idea of consolidation of a liberal domestic regulatory framework and mechanisms leading to accelerate trade liberalization process.

O artigo analisa os capítulos sobre propriedade intelectual dos acordos preferenciais de comércio firmados pelos Estados Unidos com países da América Latina na década de 2000, discutindo tanto as motivações do país para a assinatura dos mesmos (e inserindo tal discussão em um framework teórico) quanto as implicações dos acordos para os direitos de propriedade intelectual de seus signatários. Nesse sentido, apresenta algumas teorias acerca das características intrínsecas a instituições internacionais multilaterais, em contraste com as bilaterais e regionais; tais teorias afirmam que os estados, ao lidarem com resultados indesejados de características institucionais, modificam instituições (ou criam novas instituições) de acordo com seus objetivos. Em seguida, apresenta o resultado de um levantamento bibliográfico acerca das motivações estadunidenses para a assinatura dos mencionados acordos preferenciais de comércio, com ênfase nas relacionadas aos direitos de propriedade intelectual; tal resultado é complementado com a análise dos documentos primários pertinentes. Por fim, compara o conteúdo dos mencionados capítulos entre si; também os compara com o Acordo TRIPS da OMC. O artigo conclui que as motivações estadunidenses coincidem com as expectativas teóricas; que os capítulos analisados são substancialmente diferentes do Acordo TRIPS; que eles contêm diversas diferenças entre si (as quais são, em parte, decorrentes de exigências do legislativo estadunidense); e que ainda há espaço para pesquisas sobre a política comercial estadunidense praticada no período, no que tange à sua interface com os direitos de propriedade intelectual. / The article analyzes the intellectual property rights chapters of the preferential trade agreements signed by the United States with Latin American countries during the 2000s, discussing both the country\'s reasons for signing such agreements (and inserting such discussion in a theoretical framework) and their implications to the intellectual property rights of its signatories. In this regard, it presents some theories about the features intrinsic to the multilateral international institutions, when contrasted with the bilateral and regional ones; such theories claim that states, when dealing with undesired effects of institutional features, modify institutions (or create new ones), in accordance with their objectives. Then, the article presents the findings of a literature review about the U.S. reasons for signing the aforementioned preferential trade agreements, emphasizing those reasons related to intellectual property rights; such findings are complemented by the analysis of the pertinent primary documents. Finally, it compares the content of the chapters with each other; it also compares them with the WTO TRIPS Agreement. It concludes that the U.S. reasons presented coincide with the theoretical expectations; that the analyzed chapters are substantially different from the TRIPS Agreement; that the chapters have many differences with each other (which are, in part, due to U.S. Congress requirements); and that there is still room for new researches on the U.S. trade policy practiced during the analyzed period, when it comes to its interface with intellectual property rights.

Atualmente, há um debate acerca dos efeitos da aplicação de medidas antidumping entre as partes de um acordo regional de comércio. Discute-se que o emprego de tais instrumentos pode gerar um óbice ao livre comércio e ao avanço da integração econômica negociados em tais acordos. As regras do sistema multilateral de comércio determinam que direitos antidumping podem ser aplicados quando comprovada a existência de dumping, dano à indústria nacional e a relação causal entre estes. Entretanto, mesmo que haja regras sobre a condução de uma investigação antidumping e a aplicação da medida, ainda há muito espaço para a discricionariedade das autoridades nacionais investigadoras. Isso enseja a preocupação de que a aplicação desse instrumento pode conduzir a uma ineficácia dos objetivos de liberalização comercial negociados nos acordos regionais de comércio, além de neutralizar as concessões tarifárias feitas no âmbito desses acordos, em prol do protecionismo de uma indústria doméstica, muitas vezes, defasada e inapta à concorrência internacional. A presente dissertação pretende demonstrar que, à medida que o antidumping representa um potencial impacto negativo aos ideais dos acordos regionais de comércio, sua aplicação é antagônica com os objetivos desses acordos, inclusive no caso do MERCOSUL. Assim, as regras antidumping no âmbito do MERCOSUL deveriam ser repensadas, uma vez que a não aplicação de direitos antidumping no comércio intrarregional permitiria o avanço da integração econômica na região e representaria mais um passo rumo à consolidação da união aduaneira. / Currently, there is a debate about the effects of antidumping measures among members of regional trade agreements. It is argued that the use of such instrument can represent an obstacle to free trade and the deepening of economic integration. The rules of the multilateral trading system determines that antidumping duties may be applied when verified the existence of dumping, injury to the domestic industry of the importing country and causal relationship between them. However, even though there are rules governing the conduction of an antidumping investigation and the application of antidumping measures, there is still much room for discretion of investigating authorities. This gives rise to concern that the use of antidumping may lead to ineffectiveness of the goals of trade liberalization and neutralization of tariff concessions made under such agreements, in order to protect a domestic industry, usually outdated and unprepared to international competition. This thesis intends to demonstrate that, as antidumping represents a potential negative impact to the achievements of regional trade agreements, its application among members of a RTA is opposed to the goals of such agreements, including in the case of MERCOSUR. Thus, antidumping rules within MERCOSUR should be reconsidered, since the elimination of antidumping duties on intraregional trade would allow the deepening of the regional economic integration and represent a step towards the consolidation of the customs union.