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[en] DEMAND SHOCKS AND RISK DETERMINANTS FOR STOCKS / [pt] CHOQUES DE DEMANDA E DETERMINANTES DE RISCO PARA AÇÕESCLAUDIO MARCIO PEREIRA DA CUNHA 19 January 2018 (has links)
[pt] Esta tese é composta por três estudos que têm em comum um papel destacado para choques de demanda na avaliação do risco de ações. O primeiro estudo avalia se ações que apresentam volume anormalmente alto têm um maior retorno nas semanas seguintes, sem necessariamente maior risco, como relatado
anteriormente na literatura. Diferentemente de resultados precedentes, o estudo mostra que o risco sistemático pode explicar parcialmente o maior retorno de uma carteira formada com ações que apresentam volume anormalmente alto. Porém, também mostra que a correlação com o retorno do mercado não é suficiente para explicar o maior retorno da carteira de maior volume. O segundo
estudo avalia se retornos acumulados afetam a resposta da volatilidade a choques de retorno. Foi verificado que sim. Este resultado é atribuído a viés comportamental que, atenuaria o impacto dos choques positivos, sobre a volatilidade, quando o retorno acumulado e corrente são negativos, mas amplificaria o impacto dos choques negativos, quando o retorno acumulado e corrente são negativos. O estudo apresenta evidência empírica que suporta esta explicação. O terceiro estudo, motivado por literatura recente que mostra a relevância da assimetria das distribuições de retornos de ações na avaliação de
risco, procura identificar determinantes da assimetria. Além das variáveis explicativas identificadas pela literatura precedente, o estudo mostra que o ganho de capital e uma variável proposta como proxy para a freqüência de incorporação de novidades aos preços afetam a assimetria da distribuição de retornos de ações de maneira estatisticamente significativa e com os sinais conjecturados. / [en] This thesis consists of three essays which have in common the role of demand shocks in the evaluation of stocks risk. The first essay evaluates whether stocks that present abnormal high volume have a greater return in the following weeks, which is not necessarily linked to higher risk, as previously reported in financial literature. Contrary to previous results, the essay shows that systematic risk may partially explain the greater return of the portfolio formed with stocks that present abnormally high volume. However, it also shows that the correlation with market return is not sufficient to explain the greater return of
the high volume portfolio. The second essay evaluates whether cumulative returns affect the response of volatility to return shocks. The result was affirmative, and attributed to behavioral bias, that attenuates the impact f positive shocks, when cumulative and current return are positive, and amplifies the impact of negative shocks, when cumulative and current return are negative. The essay also provides empirical evidence supporting this explanation. The third essay, motivated by recent literature that shows the relevance of skewness of returns distribution to risk evaluation, aims the identification of skewness determinants. Besides explanatory variables identified by previous literature, the essay shows that capital gain and a variable proposed as proxy for the frequency of information incorporation into prices affect the skewness of stocks returns distribution, with statistical significance and conjectured signs.
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Foreign Direct Investments on the Swedish Real Estate Market : Fundamentals Impact on Foreign Transaction Volume / Utländska Direktinvesteringar på den Svenska Fastighetsmarknaden : Fundamentala Ekonomiska Faktorers Inverkan på UtländskMalmström, David, Schultz, Anthon January 2017 (has links)
2016 was a year of record with a total amount of over 201 billion SEK invested in the Swedish real estate market, spread over more than 535 transactions (counting transactions of 40 million SEK and above). The Swedish real estate market is sometimes referred to as a safe haven among international investors when it comes to foreign direct investments. Some characteristics that makes Swedish real estate a valuable asset among foreign investors are said to be the market transparency, low interest rate environment, and increasing rents, to mention a few. This report uses a quantitative analysis method in order to discern what fundamental economic factors that affects foreign investor’s behavior of when to invest in Swedish real estate. The Swedish property firm, Newsec, has provided transaction data in order to accomplish this study. From the quantitative analysis, it has been found that the fundamental factors that have the most impact on foreign transaction volume are the capitalization rate, inflation rate, world market volatility, Swedish stock market and domestic transaction volume. Furthermore, exchange rates and the repo rate do not seem to have a significant impact on the foreign transaction volume, according to the study. / 2016 var ett rekordår på den svenska fastighetsmarknaden med en total transaktionsvolym på över 201 miljarder kronor, fördelat på över 535 transaktioner (räknat transaktioner över 40 miljoner kronor). Den svenska fastighetsmarknaden refereras ibland till som en fristad av internationella investerare när det kommer till utländska direktinvesteringar. Några av de egenskaper som karaktäriserar den svenska fastighetsmarknaden och som gör den till en värdefull tillgång för utländska investerare är att den präglas av hög transparens, låga räntor och stigande hyror, för att nämna några. Den här rapporten använder en kvantitativ analysmetod för att undersöka vilka fundamentala ekonomiska faktorer som påverkar vid vilken tidpunkt utländska investerare väljer att investera i svenska fastigheter. Fastighetsbolaget Newsec har tillhandahållit transaktionsdata som möjliggjort denna studie. Från den kvantitativa analysen har det kunnat urskönjas att de fundamentala ekonomiska faktorerna som påverkar den totala volymen utländskt kapital som investeras på den svenska fastighetsmarknaden är: cap rate, inflation, volatilitet på världsmarknaden, svenska aktiepriser samt svenskt investerat kapital i svenska fastigheter. Vidare, valutakurser och reporäntan är faktorer som inte har kunnat säkerställas ha inflytande över volymen utländskt investerat kapital enligt studien.
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Transaction Volumes Effect on Co-Operative Apartment Valuations : A Case Study of Stockholm’s Co-Operative Apartment Market / Transaktionsvolymers påverkan på bostadsrättsvärderingar : En studie över Stockholms bostadsrättsmarknadBirath, Fabian, Linjo, Martin January 2024 (has links)
This thesis investigates the impact of transaction volumes on the valuation accuracy of cooperative housing in Stockholm, focusing on the period from 2019 to 2023. Utilizing an Automated Valuation Model (AVM) and a traditional Hedonic Pricing Model (HPM) with Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions, the study examines how fluctuations in market activity influence the precision of property valuations. The primary objective of this research is to determine the extent to which different levels of turnover in the co-operative housing market affect the certainty of these valuations. The study aims to present the correlation between transaction volume and valuation accuracy in a quantifiable manner, providing insights into the dynamics that transaction volume introduces into real estate market assessments. The findings reveal that higher transaction volumes correlate with greater valuation accuracy, emphasizing the importance of market liquidity in real estate assessments. The AVM shows that transaction volumes, while having low measured coefficients, significantly affect valuation accuracy. Conversely, the HPM indicates a stronger influence of transaction volume on absolute percentage error, particularly over the 30 days prior to the sales and valuation date. These results suggest that both simpler techniques like the HPM and more sophisticated approaches like the AVM experience reduced accuracy with decreased market activity, although the impact is less pronounced with advanced valuation systems. / Denna uppsats undersöker hur transaktionsvolymer påverkar värderingsnoggrannheten av bostadsrätter i Stockholm, med fokus på perioden från 2019 till 2023. Genom att använda en automatiserad värderingsmodell (AVM) och en traditionell Hedonsik Pris Modell (HPM), med “Ordinary Least Squares”(OLS) regressioner, undersöker studien hur fluktuationer i transaktioner påverkar precisionen i fastighetsvärderingar. Det primära syftet med denna forskning är att fastställa i vilken utsträckning olika transaktionsvolymer på bostadsrättsmarknaden påverkar säkerheten i dessa värderingar. Studien syftar till att presentera korrelationen mellan transaktionsvolym och värderingsnoggrannhet på ett kvantifierbart sätt, vilket ger insikter i de dynamiker som transaktionsvolym introducerar i fastighetsmarknaden. Resultaten visar att högre transaktionsvolymer korrelerar med större värderingsnoggrannhet, vilket betonar vikten av marknadslikviditet vid bostadsrättsvärderingar. AVM visar att transaktionsvolymer, trots att de har låga koefficienter, påverkar värderingsnoggrannheten signifikant. Omvänt indikerar HPM en starkare påverkan av transaktionsvolym på absolut procentfel, särskilt under de 30 dagar som föregår försäljnings- och värderingsdatumet. Dessa resultat tyder på att både enklare tekniker som HPM och mer sofistikerade metoder som AVM upplever minskad noggrannhet vid minskad marknadsaktivitet, även om påverkan är mindre uttalad med avancerade värderingssystem.
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