<p>In the first paper the effect of accessibility upon rent is investigated for office properties located in Downtown Stockholm. Starting from the firm’s cost minimization problem, a translog hedonic model is derived. The results suggest the model has good predictive power in explaining the variation in the log of the rent. A negative rent gradient is obtained with a base approximately 90 meters from the postulated focal point. It appears as if Space Syntax adds important information to the understanding of the intraurban office rent pattern.</p><p>The second paper investigates assumed capitalisation rates in 3026 discounted cash flow valuations of office properties in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö during the time period 1998-2004. The study investigates determinants of property-level variation in cap rates and how going in and exit cap rates relate to each other.</p><p>Exit cap rates exhibit substantial variation across properties. Part of this cross-sectional variation can be attributed to the location of the property, part of it is due to other characteristics of the property. Exit cap rates are differentiated between properties of the same type on the same market segment, which shows that valuers apply property level fine-tuning when setting exit cap rates. Properties with low market rent and high long-run vacancy assumption typically have high exit cap rates. Properties in peripheral parts of a city typically have higher exit cap rates than properties in central parts.</p><p>The implicitly assumed going-in cap rate (defined as assumed net operating income year one divided by estimated market value) follows a similar pattern as the exit cap rate but exhibits more temporary, property-specific variation. Going-in cap rates are strongly influenced by temporary deviations of vacancy rates and rents from assumed “normal” levels of vacancy and rent. The difference between going-in and exit cap rates is influenced by assumed short-run growth in net operating income in the way stipulated by theory: high assumed short-run growth is associated with going-in cap rates being lower than exit cap rates.</p>

The presented study describes commercial real estate markets with focus on office sector. We identify the capitalization rate (investment yield) as one of the fundamental elements in the commercial property valuation. Based on historical office investment yield observations and various econometric models we predict the office capitalization rate development in the Czech Republic. We use data of the United Kingdom, Ireland and Sweden to identify common yield trend especially with respect to their real estate crises in 1990s that embody features similar to the real estate crisis in 2008-2010. As explanatory variables for the econometric models (ARIMA, OLS, VAR) we use financial and macroeconomic variables. We use the OLS models to identify the optimal set of explanatory variables, to be applied in VAR models. On dataset of the comparable countries we compare the goodness of fit of the VAR and ARIMA models. The best variants are then used for the prediction of the Czech office yield. Lastly, we improve our results by implementing exogenous forecasts of macroeconomic variables used in the models. Majority of our predictions forecast a slow decrease of the capitalization rate in next two years (2010-2012) in the magnitude of 0.25% - 1% (to 6.25%-6%).

With the rise of the millennial generation, a new roster of cities has sprung to life – the 18-hour cities. They can be defined as a vibrant second-tier city where there’s a big potential for employment and economic growth and at the same time they offer a lower cost of living and doing business than in 24-hour gateway cities like New York City or San Francisco. They have been named the hottest places for real estate investments by industry literature which poses the question if 18-hour cities really offer better investments than 24-hour cities. This paper uses a statistical analysis framework complemented with qualitative interviews of industry professionals based in 18-hour markets to test this notion. From the statistical analysis, it has been found that 18-hour cities offer higher yields than the 24-hour markets but the cash return cannot be said do differ between the two. Furthermore, the interviews with industry professionals indicate that the 18-hour markets have major future growth prospects because of their job growth, population growth and the large in-migration of high-skilled labor gravitating towards these amenity-rich areas where they can receive the highest reward-for-skill / Med millenniegenerationens framfart har en ny rad städer vaknat till liv – 18-timmarsstäderna. De kan definieras som en levande andrastad där det finns stor potential för arbete och ekonomisk tillväxt samtidigt som de erbjuder lägre levnadskostnad och kostnad för att driva företag än 24-timmarsstäder som New York eller San Francisco. De har utsetts till de hetaste marknaderna för fastighetsinvesteringar av tidsskrifter vilket väcker frågan om 18-timmarsstäder verkligen erbjuder bättre investeringsmöjligheter än 24-timmarsstäder. Denna studie använder statistisk analys kompletterat med intervjuer av personer verksamma i fastighetsbranschen för att testa den hypotesen. Från den statistiska analysen fanns det att 18-timmarsstäder erbjuder högre direktavkastning än 24-timmarsstäder men avkastningen på kapital kan inte säga skiljas mellan de två klustren. Vidare indikerade intervjuerna med branschfolk att 18-timmarsstäder har stor framtida tillväxtpotential tack vare stark jobbtillväxt, befolkningsökning och stor inflyttning av högutbildad arbetskraft som drar sig till områden med mycket bekvämligheter och där de kan få bäst belöning för sin utbildningsnivå.

In the first paper the effect of accessibility upon rent is investigated for office properties located in Downtown Stockholm. Starting from the firm’s cost minimization problem, a translog hedonic model is derived. The results suggest the model has good predictive power in explaining the variation in the log of the rent. A negative rent gradient is obtained with a base approximately 90 meters from the postulated focal point. It appears as if Space Syntax adds important information to the understanding of the intraurban office rent pattern. The second paper investigates assumed capitalisation rates in 3026 discounted cash flow valuations of office properties in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö during the time period 1998-2004. The study investigates determinants of property-level variation in cap rates and how going in and exit cap rates relate to each other. Exit cap rates exhibit substantial variation across properties. Part of this cross-sectional variation can be attributed to the location of the property, part of it is due to other characteristics of the property. Exit cap rates are differentiated between properties of the same type on the same market segment, which shows that valuers apply property level fine-tuning when setting exit cap rates. Properties with low market rent and high long-run vacancy assumption typically have high exit cap rates. Properties in peripheral parts of a city typically have higher exit cap rates than properties in central parts. The implicitly assumed going-in cap rate (defined as assumed net operating income year one divided by estimated market value) follows a similar pattern as the exit cap rate but exhibits more temporary, property-specific variation. Going-in cap rates are strongly influenced by temporary deviations of vacancy rates and rents from assumed “normal” levels of vacancy and rent. The difference between going-in and exit cap rates is influenced by assumed short-run growth in net operating income in the way stipulated by theory: high assumed short-run growth is associated with going-in cap rates being lower than exit cap rates. / QC 20101115

This study extends a previously developed model of real estate capitalization rates. The preceding model suggests that real estate cap rates are a function of debt and equity spreads over the real risk free rate. In an effort to further the previous research, the effects that commercial real estate mortgage markets have on cap rates is considered. Mortgage originations and debt service coverage ratios are used to proxy the effects of the commercial mortgage market. The empirical results reconfirm the significance of debt and equity spreads. Furthermore, mortgage markets are shown to have a significant effect on capitalization rates. These results help to explain contributing factors to the real estate bubble of 2007.

隨著中國大陸經濟的高度成長，不動產市場也隨之發展。在貸款利率及不動產相關稅負長期偏低之下，住宅產品的投資需求不斷上升，使得房價一路高漲。房屋價格的增幅過大、增速過高，已經超出了合理的範圍。截至2010年，中國大陸推出一系列以抑制房價為主要目的的宏觀調控政策，許多重點城市也陸續推出以“限購令”為主要內容的地方性政策來調控不動產市場。由於中國大陸地幅遼闊，各地的不動產市場因受各種因素影響而發展各異，因此挑選了北京、上海、廣州三個頗具代表性的重點城市作為研究對象。本文應用年租金與加權平均資本成本（WACC）還原基本價值，以其與市場價格間的差距作為泡沫程度的估計，計算出這三個城市2007年至2012年間不動產價格泡沫程度。藉由這三個城市的不動產市場泡沫狀況，運用共整合分析檢視中國城市不動產價格泡沫的影響因素，并以Granger因果關係檢定探討三地不動產價格泡沫與各因素之領先落後關係。 實證結果顯示，人均可支配收入和金融機構各項信貸總額對不動產價格泡沫具有正向影響，不動產價格泡沫則對其本身具有負向影響，而抵押貸款利率與不動產價格泡沫先是正相關而後轉為負相關的關係。而根據Granger因果關係檢定結果，北京不動產價格泡沫落後於金融機構各項貸款總額，而上海不動產價格泡沫領先於人均可支配收入，廣州不動產價格泡沫則落後於人均可支配收入、抵押貸款利率與金融機構各項貸款總額。 / With the rapid economic development in China, the real estate market has been undergoing a great boom. The low interest and tax rates are very favorable for the continuously increasing house demands, and thus resulting in higher housing prices. And the extremely rapidly increasing housing prices are not reasonable. Until 2010, Chinese government had published a series of national housing regulatory decisions to address the over-heating real estate market. And the restrictions on house purchase have been put into practice in some major cities. Given that China has a vast territory with large variety, the impact of these regulations on the local real estate markets of the cities can hardly be determined. Therefore, we study here the real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, three of the most representative major cities in China. This study evaluates the housing bubbles situations in these cities from 2007 to 2012 by comparing fundamental values with market prices. The fundamental value of real estate can be calculated by annual rents and WACC. Based on the evaluated housing bubbles situations, this study then applies Cointegration analysis to further explore the factors that may contribute to China’s housing bubbles. In addition, Granger causality test is employed to examine the lead/lag relationship between housing bubbles and the variables. The empirical result shows that per-capita disposable incomes and total loans of financial institutions are positively related to China’s housing bubbles. And the housing bubbles in these three cities are negatively related to themselves. In addition, the impact of interest rates on housing bubbles is positive and later turns negative with respect to the magnitude of increasing rates. According to the results of Granger causality tests, Beijing’s housing bubbles are Granger caused by total loans while property bubbles in Shanghai lead personal incomes. Furthermore, housing bubbles in Guangzhou are Granger caused by personal disposable incomes, interest rates and total loans.

Avkastningen från privata och publika fastighetsinvesteringar är något som undersökts extensivt, med slutsatsen att noterade fastighetsinvesteringar uppvisat en högre avkastning jämfört med onoterade fastighetsinvesteringar på kort sikt. Denna uppsats avser att analysera historiska direktavkastningar i syfte av att upptäcka eventuella diskrepanser i värdering mellan noterade och onoterade fastighetsinvesteringar. Utöver det, avser denna uppsats att diskutera huruvida det föreligger fördelar med att äga onoterade fastigheter som skulle motivera en högre värdering, trots historiskt lägre totalavkastning. Den underliggande datan är hämtad från MSCI Sweden Annual Property Index och Refinitiv Worldscope Fundamentals-databasen som säkerställts med årsredovisningar för de noterade fastighetsföretagen. Med hjälp av denna data skapades två direktavkastningsserier för perioden mellan 2000 - 2019. Dessa jämfördes sedan med varandra och påvisade diskrepanser i form av högre direktavkastning på den noterade marknaden under större delar av 00-talet medan den onoterade marknaden uppvisade en högre direktavkastning mellan 2011 - 2016. Sedan dess har direktavkastningen för båda noteringsformerna sjunkit till historiskt låga nivåer. Vad gäller onoterade fastighetsinvesteringar återfinns fördelar i form av målstyrning och genomförandet av långsiktiga utvecklingsprojekt, ofta som en del av en långsiktig och värdeskapande ägarstrategi. / The return of private and public real estate is a matter that has been studied extensively and has often proved the outperformance of securitized real estate over direct property in the short term. This paper will analyze historical capitalization rates in order to locate any value discrepancies between the direct and indirect property market in Sweden. Furthermore, the paper aims to understand whether there are any benefits to holding direct property, otherwise not justified by higher returns, that would explain its high valuation. The underlying data collection relies on MSCI Sweden Annual Property Index as well as financial reports and profile data from the Refinitiv Worldscope Fundamentals database for the listed real estate companies. Using the collected data, net operating income yields were built for the direct and indirect property market for the period between 2000 - 2019. These historical capitalization rate series were then compared to each other and showed some discrepancy in favor of securitized real estate which demonstrated higher capitalization rates during most of the 2000s. However, the direct real estate market was shown to outperform the indirect one between 2011 - 2016. Ever since, public and private real estate on the Swedish market has shown similar valuations and the capitalization rates are now historically low, (as at December 2019). As for holding direct property, advantages include the ability to carry out development projects, which are often part of a long-term and value-adding ownership strategy.

2016 was a year of record with a total amount of over 201 billion SEK invested in the Swedish real estate market, spread over more than 535 transactions (counting transactions of 40 million SEK and above). The Swedish real estate market is sometimes referred to as a safe haven among international investors when it comes to foreign direct investments. Some characteristics that makes Swedish real estate a valuable asset among foreign investors are said to be the market transparency, low interest rate environment, and increasing rents, to mention a few. This report uses a quantitative analysis method in order to discern what fundamental economic factors that affects foreign investor’s behavior of when to invest in Swedish real estate.  The Swedish property firm, Newsec, has provided transaction data in order to accomplish this study. From the quantitative analysis, it has been found that the fundamental factors that have the most impact on foreign transaction volume are the capitalization rate, inflation rate, world market volatility, Swedish stock market and domestic transaction volume. Furthermore, exchange rates and the repo rate do not seem to have a significant impact on the foreign transaction volume, according to the study. / 2016 var ett rekordår på den svenska fastighetsmarknaden med en total transaktionsvolym på över 201 miljarder kronor, fördelat på över 535 transaktioner (räknat transaktioner över 40 miljoner kronor). Den svenska fastighetsmarknaden refereras ibland till som en fristad av internationella investerare när det kommer till utländska direktinvesteringar. Några av de egenskaper som karaktäriserar den svenska fastighetsmarknaden och som gör den till en värdefull tillgång för utländska investerare är att den präglas av hög transparens, låga räntor och stigande hyror, för att nämna några. Den här rapporten använder en kvantitativ analysmetod för att undersöka vilka fundamentala ekonomiska faktorer som påverkar vid vilken tidpunkt utländska investerare väljer att investera i svenska fastigheter. Fastighetsbolaget Newsec har tillhandahållit transaktionsdata som möjliggjort denna studie. Från den kvantitativa analysen har det kunnat urskönjas att de fundamentala ekonomiska faktorerna som påverkar den totala volymen utländskt kapital som investeras på den svenska fastighetsmarknaden är: cap rate, inflation, volatilitet på världsmarknaden, svenska aktiepriser samt svenskt investerat kapital i svenska fastigheter. Vidare, valutakurser och reporäntan är faktorer som inte har kunnat säkerställas ha inflytande över volymen utländskt investerat kapital enligt studien.

收益資本化率是不動產估價收益法中最為關鍵的因素，不動產淨收益透過收益資本化率轉換為價值，其步驟看似簡易，卻深藏「失之毫釐，差之千里」的陷井。在國內，商用不動產廣泛運用收益法來估計不動產價值，但收益資本化率之研究卻相當缺乏，相關文獻僅限於國外，因此，本研究以台北市商用不動產為主要研究對象，除了探討收益資本化率之影響因素與實務界在決定過程上的缺失外，並提出較具有解釋力的計算與預測方法。 本研究蒐集自1992年至2008年止台北市商用辦公室之租金與房價資料，利用特徵價格模型將轉換後的租金與房以直接資本化法計算收益資本化率，與問卷結果中可得之影響因素資料進行相關分析、多變量自我迴歸分析，找出關鍵之影響因素，並利用指數平滑法、Box-Jenkins、灰色與VAR模型等時間預測方法來進行收益資本化率之預測。 本研究實證結果顯示，以特徵價格模型計算台北市商用辦公室之收益資本化率，其模型解釋力相當高，並獲致區位上的差異結果。此外，影響因素分為四個面向包含：社會經濟條件、其他投資工具、市場條件、建築物條件等四項，影響因素中除了收益資本化率自身前期為一個重要指標，社會經濟條件之經濟成長率、建築物條件之台電用電不足底度戶數與市場條件之電力(企業)總用電量(十億度)為重要領先指標，其他投資工具之股價指數與社會經濟條件之失業率為同步對收益資本化率有影響性，代表市場條件之不動產景氣領先綜合指標受到收益資本化率之影響而為落後指標，而收益資本化率本身並具有平均數復歸的現象。在未來趨勢的預測方面，單一時間數列適合長期資料之預測模型Box-J進行預測之解釋力（adjR-square）較高，各模型之預測結果平均來說，以Box-J與VAR-I為最有可能之預測值，而最樂觀為VAR-II之預測值，最悲觀為灰色之預測值。 透過國內不動產估價實例進行驗證，本研究結果可以準確進行事後驗證與事前預測，對於提升不動產估價師與投資者收益資本化率的估計與解釋能力上應有所助益。 / Capitalization rate is the most crucial factor in the income approach real estate appraisal method. When this appraisal method is applied, real estate net income is converted into value via capitalization rate. The conversion process is simple and straight forward, but there seems a trap of misuse in real practice. Domestically, income approach real estate appraisal method has been put to use extensively to estimate commercial real estate value. However, research in capitalization rate is in shortage considerably. Related literature merely re-stricted in overseas resource, Hence, our study focus on Taipei office as the main subject to investigate the influential factors of capitalization rate and its shortcoming of real practice, in additional, we propose more concrete explana-tory calculation and estimation methods. Our study collects information on Taipei City office rental and transaction price between 1992 and 2008. Using Hedonic Price Model, the converted rents and transaction price are applied by direct Capitalization Approach to calculate capitalization rate. Thereafter, we compared with the influential factors derived from the survey through correlation analysis, and Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) to find the pivotal influence factors. Meanwhile, we use Exponential Smoothing(ES)、Box-Jenkins、Grey Forecasting Model and VAR time-series estimate method to conduct capitalization rate prediction. The result of this study provides actual proof that to use Hedonic Price Model to calculate office capitalization rate of Taipei, the results are rather ac-curate and indicate a geographical difference. In terms of influential determi-nates, the capitalization rate in itself is an important indicator in the beginning. The Economical Growth Rate and the household under electricity base degree utility of Taiwan Power Company are also significant leading indicators. Stock Price Index, Unemployment Rate and the capitalization rate affect among them. Real Estate Cycle Leading Indicators are affected by capitalization rate and hence a lagged index. Capitalization itself exhibits mean return phenomenon. The future trend prediction of capitalization rate, Box-J and VAR-I give the most likely estimates; VAR-II gives the most optimistic value, whilst Grey Forecasting Model gives the most pessimistic estimation. Through Case study of domestic real estate appraisal to conduct experi-mental verification indicates that the result of our study can accurately carry out aftermath verification and prior estimation. As such, hopefully our empiri-cal study might be able to benefit real estate appraiser and investor to enhance their ability to determine the capitalization rate.

This thesis focuses on the comparison of selected methods of valuation for the property type flat in Karlovy Vary - Stara Role, specifically prefabricated insulated houses. The theoretical part describes the basic concepts associated with the valuation, it describes methods of valuation and detailed description of location . The practical part of the thesis is focused on the valuation of flats according to the current price regulation. Comparative and yield methods are used in this valuation. The conclusion of the final price of these methods is processed and evaluated.