Esta pesquisa tem como objetivo analisar a mecânica dos processos políticos internos do Federal Reserve System e sua interação com o Departamento do Tesouro dos Estados Unidos no período entre o auge da crise financeira global no final de 2008 e o impasse sobre a elevação do teto da dívida pública em 2011. Foram analisados documentos oficias das duas instituições, bem como pronunciamentos de seus dirigentes. O estudo mostra que as estratégias desenhadas pelos formuladores de política monetária e fiscal complementaram-se durante a maior parte do período considerado, com a criação e implementação de variados instrumentos e programas de grande impacto. Nesse processo, o papel internacional do dólar foi reforçado. / This research aims at analyzing the mechanics of the internal political processes of the Federal Reserve System and its interaction with the U.S. Department of Treasury between the height of global financial crisis, late 2008, and the deadlock around the debt ceiling raise in 2011. To this end, the study was based on official documents issued by the two agencies and statements made by their representatives. The analysis indicates that the strategies designed by monetary and fiscal policymakers were complementary during most of the period in focus, through the creation and implementation of different policy tools and programs of great impact. In this process, the international role of the dollar was reinforced.

Esta pesquisa tem como objetivo analisar a mecânica dos processos políticos internos do Federal Reserve System e sua interação com o Departamento do Tesouro dos Estados Unidos no período entre o auge da crise financeira global no final de 2008 e o impasse sobre a elevação do teto da dívida pública em 2011. Foram analisados documentos oficias das duas instituições, bem como pronunciamentos de seus dirigentes. O estudo mostra que as estratégias desenhadas pelos formuladores de política monetária e fiscal complementaram-se durante a maior parte do período considerado, com a criação e implementação de variados instrumentos e programas de grande impacto. Nesse processo, o papel internacional do dólar foi reforçado. / This research aims at analyzing the mechanics of the internal political processes of the Federal Reserve System and its interaction with the U.S. Department of Treasury between the height of global financial crisis, late 2008, and the deadlock around the debt ceiling raise in 2011. To this end, the study was based on official documents issued by the two agencies and statements made by their representatives. The analysis indicates that the strategies designed by monetary and fiscal policymakers were complementary during most of the period in focus, through the creation and implementation of different policy tools and programs of great impact. In this process, the international role of the dollar was reinforced.

Esta pesquisa buscou compreender o trabalho indígena no Estado do Grão-Pará e Rio Negro durante a segunda metade do século XVIII, período em que vigorou o Diretório dos Índios. Assim, discorremos sobre a conjuntura e historiografia a respeito do Diretório, bem como elaboramos uma análise das políticas indigenistas e da funcionalidade da Tesouraria do Geral do Comércio dos Índios, instituição fiscal responsável pelos rendimentos da produção das povoações indígenas. Por ser o índio utilizado em diversos trabalhos, o principal objetivo desta investigação histórica foi demonstrar que a mão de obra indígena foi maciçamente explorada pela economia colonial, e não apenas empregados em atividades ligadas à agricultura e ao extrativismo. Nesse sentido, os indígenas foram também utilizados como mão de obra especializada, empregada na construção de navios mercantes e de guerra, embarcações essas as quais faziam parte das ações da Companhia de Comércio do Grão-Pará e Maranhão que visavam entre outras ações reformar e aumentar a frota naval de Portugal. / This research aimed to understand the indigenous labor in the State of Grão-Pará and Rio Negro during the second half of the 18th century, period in which prevailed the Indians Directory. Thus, we discuss the conjuncture and historiography regarding the directory as well as elaborate an analysis of the indigenist policies and the functionality of the Treasury of the Indians Trade, institution that was responsible for financial matters such as spending and tax of the indians labor. As the indians were used in several labors, the main goal of this historical investigation is to demonstrate that the indians were massively exploited by the colonial economy and not only employed in activities related to agriculture and extractivism. Thereby, the indians were also used as specialized labor, employed in the construction of merchant ships and war vessels, which were part of the actions of the General Company of Grão-Pará and Maranhão, which aimed, among other actions, to reform and increase the portuguese naval fleet.

Inflation expectations have been of great interest to economists because they predict how agents in an economy set prices and react to changes in various macroeconomic variables. The existence of Keynesian liquidity traps in Japan and the United States have helped emphasize the importance of inflation expectations, especially when monetary policy is rendered ineffective and there is almost perfect substitutability between money and bonds due to the zero bound condition of interest rates. Given the canonical theories of rational and adaptive expectations, this paper will use a simple model of the economy to measure the effect of various macroeconomic variables on the formation of inflation expectations. It will test to see how consumers, economists and the market measure and forecast inflation both in the short and in the long run.

Submitted by Daniele Santos (danielesantos.htl@gmail.com) on 2015-12-22T14:11:03Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Ashley.pdf: 3717036 bytes, checksum: fc187a3c5d98cd64509bdbad08f8362e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Janete de Oliveira Feitosa (janete.feitosa@fgv.br) on 2015-12-28T19:03:08Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Ashley.pdf: 3717036 bytes, checksum: fc187a3c5d98cd64509bdbad08f8362e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2016-01-06T17:42:30Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Ashley.pdf: 3717036 bytes, checksum: fc187a3c5d98cd64509bdbad08f8362e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-01-06T17:43:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ashley.pdf: 3717036 bytes, checksum: fc187a3c5d98cd64509bdbad08f8362e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-10-26 / Even though the term corporate inversion has been heard globally for decades, it has only become more prevalent in the United States during the past two years. This case study examines two United States companies that recently had very high profile and public corporate inversion experiences. Complicated tax laws and high tax rales have long eroded the ability of United States companies to remain competitive on a global scale. During the past two years, tax reform has been elevated to the Presidential and Congressional levei. Because these reform efforts have stalled, however, and in the constant search for ways to become more competitive and profitable, United States dorniciled companies have begun to more aggressively explore corporate inversion. This case study of Walgreens Alliance Boots and Mylan N.V., is undertaken because while the reasons to pursue a corporate inversion for both companies were very similar and done during the same time period, the internai process and final outcome were dramatically different. The other dynamic studied is the role both internai and externai politics had on these two cornpanies and how they influenced the decisions made by the executives. Lastly, the Obama Administration continues to threaten so called 'corporate America' to remain in the country through regulatory pressure, but this has not stopped companies frorn pursing corporate inversions. Legislatively, attempts at corporate tax reform, another way to encourage Untied States companies to remain, have also failed. I will not try to determine i f a corporate inversion is the right path for a company to take. I am examining how the rise o f the practice o f corporate inversions has been elevated in boardroorns, on Wall Street, in Congress and at the White House during the past two years.

Writing in the 1890s, in an early account of Tennyson’s poetry, the Victorian anthologist F. T. Palgrave was keen to maintain the myth of the spontaneous singer. ‘More than once’, he recorded, Tennyson’s ‘poems sprang’ from a ‘nucleus’, ‘a brief melodious phrase’ or ‘song’, which, if not transcribed immediately, ‘fled from him irrecoverably’. It has long been the case with poets of ‘lyrics’ and ‘songs’ that their skills have been depicted as improvisatory, fleeting, or inspired. Their skills have been understood, variously, as indicative either of the most dexterous of intellects, or of brilliant but uncontrolled visions, a ‘flash’ of prophetic insight or revelation – a feel of what Shelley likens to ‘the interpenetration of a diviner nature through our own’. For many poets, however, the reality is one of inspiration that gives birth to intense manuscript activity and revision. It is now well known that Tennyson revised and re-revised, even after publication, until only weeks before his death; and yet no book-length study has pursued the significance of his manuscript revisions for the development of his style. This thesis traces the poet’s stylistic evolution through his notebooks, drafts, and printed volumes. Uncovering new literary manuscripts from Harvard, Lincoln, Cambridge, and New York, the study offers a more comprehensive picture of the poet’s craft: one alert to his evolving ambitions, and to the immense shifts that he effected in the landscape of English verse. The thesis begins by excavating how the notion of poetic ‘song’ fuelled a creative process at the heart of Tennyson’s revisions. In tracing the diverging fates of ‘lyric’ and ‘song’ across his notebooks, the opening chapter restores an important discourse for Tennysonian sonority that has comparatively declined in recent years. Chapter II examines Tennyson’s aesthetic control over the Victorian lyrical canon, drawing on a new manuscript of ‘The Golden Treasury’, the most significant anthology of the nineteenth century. Chapter III studies the notebook containing Tennyson’s first collection of verse, ‘Poems, by Two Brothers’. It reveals how much of the poor punctuation that sparked vehement attacks – and which is reproduced in modern editions – was not, in fact, inserted by the poet. Chapter IV explores how Tennyson’s most famous early songs and lyrics, published in ‘Poems, Chiefly Lyrical’, developed in tandem with his blank verse style. Chapters V and VI illuminate Tennyson’s ‘ten year silence’, which witnessed profound innovations in form, the revision of his 1832 Poems into his celebrated collection of 1842, and the creation of ‘In Memoriam’. Chapters VII and VIII piece together the notebooks, proofs, drafts, and revision copies of ‘The Princess’, Tennyson’s medley of songs and voices, lyrics and blank verse. By its end, the study reveals how the ringing qualities of his works emerged through manuscript revision: in the interplay between sonorous forms and narratives that came, over decades of change, to shape the distinctive drama of Tennyson’s style.

This thesis investigates the use of realized volatility features from high frequency data in com- bination with neural networks to improve forecasts of the yield curve of government bonds. I use high frequency data on futures of four U.S. Treasury securities to estimate the Nelson-Siegel yield curve and realized variance of its parameters over the period of 25 years. The estimated parameters are used in prediction of the level, slope and curvature of the yield curve using an LSTM neural network and compared to the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. Results show that the use of realized variance and neural network outperforms autoregressive methods in prediction of the level and curvature in daily and monthly forecasts. The yield curve of government bonds itself has a predictive power on multiple macroeconomic variables, therefore improvements in its forecastability may have broader implications on forecasting the overall state of the economy.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:24:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2008-06-02Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T20:31:17Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 magdalena_aj_me_fran.pdf: 492963 bytes, checksum: 9af224a748267e44f3d19c08ba771bce (MD5) / A partir do panorama geral dos chamados direitos fundamentais, o presente trabalho busca, com particular enfoque no princípio que estabelece o direito a processo em tempo razoável, examinar a possibilidade do uso da ação monitória como instrumento eficiente de coerção jurisdicional da Fazenda Pública a mais célere adimplemento de certas obrigações, representadas em documento desprovido de força executiva. Considera, inicialmente, que a garantia de integral observância dos preceitos constitucionais correspondentes àqueles, voltados à construção de uma ordem jurídica justa, constitui razão essencial do moderno Estado Democrático de Direito, cuja concepção importa em admitir, muitas vezes, o uso de mecanismos de defesa das pessoas contra a força do próprio aparelho estatal. Analisa, nesse quadro, a importância de assegurar efetivo acesso de todos à Justiça, bem como discorre sobre o papel exercido pela jurisdição e sobre a necessidade de haver um sistema processual eficaz à concreta realização de direitos. Refere o esforço mais atual de legisladores, administradores públicos e operadores jurídicos, no Brasil, para o desenvolvimento de meios eficazes à solução de litígios, notadamente no âmbito do processo judicial, mediante inovações diversas, incluída previsão de tutelas jurisdicionais diferenciadas, entre as quais se inscreve aquela propiciada pela ação de conteúdo monitório, introduzida em data relativamente recente na legislação brasileira. Depois de insistir no caráter de instrumentalidade do sistema processual, que se deve prestar à pacificação da sociedade, com justiça, e à realização dos objetivos constitucionais, o trabalho aponta as características da ação... / From an analysis of the fundamental rights, especially the right to a lawsuit within a reasonable length of time, this study aims to examine the use of the admonition action as an efficient instrument to compel the Public Treasury to carry out Court orders. The work ponders that the complete observance of the constitutional rules related to essential rights constitutes the main cause of the Democratic Constitutional State, whose conception sometimes involves the use of people’s defense mechanisms against the State itself. In this sense the study analyzes the importance to assecure everyone’s access to Justice and examines the necessity of a process system that guarantees concrete rights. It also mentions the present effort of the Parliament, the Government and the jurists in Brazil to develop effective ways to solve conflicts, especially in the lawsuit ambit. This objective is achieved by several innovations as differentiated jurisdictional tutelages such as the admonition action, which has recently been introduced in the Brazilian legislation. After insisting on the instrumental aspect of the process system, which must reach social pacification and constitutional aims, the work points out the admonition action characteristics and evaluates its possibility to fulfill certain credits within a reasonable period of time. Finally the study reflects on the peculiarities of the credits opposed to the Public Treasury and ponders the viability of the admonition action use against public entities, considering their process prerogatives and the public interest.

Orientador: Artur Marques da Silva Filho / Banca: Euclides Celso Berardo / Banca: Luiz Antonio Soares Hentz / Resumo: A partir do panorama geral dos chamados direitos fundamentais, o presente trabalho busca, com particular enfoque no princípio que estabelece o direito a processo em tempo razoável, examinar a possibilidade do uso da ação monitória como instrumento eficiente de coerção jurisdicional da Fazenda Pública a mais célere adimplemento de certas obrigações, representadas em documento desprovido de força executiva. Considera, inicialmente, que a garantia de integral observância dos preceitos constitucionais correspondentes àqueles, voltados à construção de uma ordem jurídica justa, constitui razão essencial do moderno Estado Democrático de Direito, cuja concepção importa em admitir, muitas vezes, o uso de mecanismos de defesa das pessoas contra a força do próprio aparelho estatal. Analisa, nesse quadro, a importância de assegurar efetivo acesso de todos à Justiça, bem como discorre sobre o papel exercido pela jurisdição e sobre a necessidade de haver um sistema processual eficaz à concreta realização de direitos. Refere o esforço mais atual de legisladores, administradores públicos e operadores jurídicos, no Brasil, para o desenvolvimento de meios eficazes à solução de litígios, notadamente no âmbito do processo judicial, mediante inovações diversas, incluída previsão de tutelas jurisdicionais diferenciadas, entre as quais se inscreve aquela propiciada pela ação de conteúdo monitório, introduzida em data relativamente recente na legislação brasileira. Depois de insistir no caráter de instrumentalidade do sistema processual, que se deve prestar à pacificação da sociedade, com justiça, e à realização dos objetivos constitucionais, o trabalho aponta as características da ação... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: From an analysis of the fundamental rights, especially the right to a lawsuit within a reasonable length of time, this study aims to examine the use of the admonition action as an efficient instrument to compel the Public Treasury to carry out Court orders. The work ponders that the complete observance of the constitutional rules related to essential rights constitutes the main cause of the Democratic Constitutional State, whose conception sometimes involves the use of people's defense mechanisms against the State itself. In this sense the study analyzes the importance to assecure everyone's access to Justice and examines the necessity of a process system that guarantees concrete rights. It also mentions the present effort of the Parliament, the Government and the jurists in Brazil to develop effective ways to solve conflicts, especially in the lawsuit ambit. This objective is achieved by several innovations as differentiated jurisdictional tutelages such as the admonition action, which has recently been introduced in the Brazilian legislation. After insisting on the instrumental aspect of the process system, which must reach social pacification and constitutional aims, the work points out the admonition action characteristics and evaluates its possibility to fulfill certain credits within a reasonable period of time. Finally the study reflects on the peculiarities of the credits opposed to the Public Treasury and ponders the viability of the admonition action use against public entities, considering their process prerogatives and the public interest. / Mestre

O balanço de uma instituição financeira reflete suas principais decisões estratégicas, a saber, suas decisões de aplicação e captação que determinam os seus resultados. O objetivo desse trabalho é sugerir e testar uma composição para os segmentos do sistema bancário brasileiro baseado nessas decisões estratégicas e, assim, desenhar um perfil de atuação para os bancos no país. Esse trabalho utiliza dados de balancetes públicos padronizados pelo Plano Contábil das Instituições Financeiras (COSIF) e disponibilizados pelo Banco Central do Brasil. Os dados são transversais e a data base escolhida para esse estudo é dezembro de 2004, dez anos após a implantação do Plano Real e a publicação do primeiro artigo do gênero no Brasil por Savoia e Weiss (1995). Muitas transformações aconteceram nesses dez anos, em que pese à redução do sistema bancário de 263 para 140 instituições bancárias operantes. As técnicas multivariadas usadas são: análise de cluster, análise discriminante e escalonamento multidimensional. Os procedimentos hierárquico e não-hierárquico de análise de clusters foram utilizados em seqüência para formar segmentos internamente homogêneos e heterogêneos entre si. A solução escolhida subdivide o sistema bancário brasileiro em cinco grupos: varejo, crédito, tesouraria, intermediação bancária e transição ou outros repasses. Essa solução foi testada por meio de uma análise discriminante com bons resultados do ponto de vista da sua significância prática. O escalonamento multidimensional foi utilizado para propiciar uma solução gráfica que facilitasse a análise dos dados. Os resultados sugeriram que o sistema bancário era bem explicado por esses cinco segmentos. Três deles, os segmentos de varejo, crédito e tesouraria estavam voltados para a atividade-fim do sistema bancário, a intermediação financeira. Dois deles, os segmentos de intermediação bancária e transição ou repasses, foram caracterizados como intermediação da intermediação. Grupos com menor foco na intermediação financeira completa, entre credores e devedores primários, realizada pelos três segmentos anteriores. Levanta-se a hipótese de que o grupo de transição ou repasse representa os novos entrantes do mercado ou bancos com dificuldade de adaptação ao sistema bancário. O fato de mais de 30% dos bancos terem essas características de intermediação da atividade de crédito, ou estarem em busca de novos nichos de atuação sugere que o processo de reestruturação do sistema bancário iniciado em 1994 ainda não está concluído / The balance sheets of financial institutions reveal their primary strategies, namely investment and funding, which determine banks profitability. The aim of the present study was to suggest and try out experiment with a (optimal) combination for the Brazilian banking system markets based on these strategic parameters decisions, and thus, design a course of action for the Brazilian banks. This study relies on public balances provided by the Brazilian Central Bank and standardized by the Accounting Chart for Institutions of the National Financial System (COSIF). Balances chosen for this cross-section study date December, 2004; ten years after the implementation of the Real plan and the publication of the first article of the kind by Savoia and Weiss (1995). During the referred period Brazilian banking system underwent deep transformations and banking institutions were reduced from 263 to 140. The multivariate methods applied to this study comprised cluster analysis, discriminant analysis, and multidimensional scaling. Hierarchical and non-hierarchical cluster procedures were carried out in order to bring about five groups, distinct among themselves, but homogeneous within themselves. The proposal lies in dividing the Brazilian banking system into five major groups: hybrid; credit; treasury; interbanking; and transition or distribution banks. This solution was tested by a discriminant analysis and met practical significance criteria. Multidimensional scaling provided a graphical interface that simplified further analysis. The results suggest the five-group solution is adequate. Three of them, hybrid, credit and treasury banks, perform well-defined bank operations, providing banking intermediation, whereas the other two, interbanking and transition or distribution banks operate as intermediates in the banking system (i.e., an intermediation of the intermediation). Thus, the last two are not so focused on the whole financial intermediation between lenders and borrowers as the three first groups are. It is suggested that such intermediation of credit distribution be a non-profit strategy of the transition or distribution banks for new entrants or banks facing difficulties in fitting in the financial system. Over 30% of the banking system operate as credit intermediates alone or follow a course of action searching for new profitable markets. This high number of transition banks suggests that the Brazilian banking system is still in the process of consolidation.