On 8 June 2012, National Treasury amended Regulation 10(1) (c) of the Exchange Control Regulations to specifically include intellectual property. In so doing, all companies wishing to dispace intellectual property to an offshore destination had to obtain prior approval from National Treasury. However, National Treasury is reticent to grant permission to reassign these assets, as revenue from intellectual property is perceived to contribute vastly to the South African tax revenue. This amendment came into being shortly after the dismissal in the Oilwell case. This case, in essence, held that intellectual property is not capital for the purposes intended by National Treasury, and therefore no prior approval to assign it offshore is required from National Treasury. This dismissal led to a large outflow of intellectual property to tax favourable foreign locations. At the same time, it exposed transfer pricing risks that had previously gone unnoticed. Although these risks have once again been mitigated by the amendment to Regulation 10(1) (c), it does not mean that it is now a thing of the past, best left forgotten. The South African government intends to relax or abolish all exchange control regulations in the future. At present the exact date when this is to take place is not known. Once the exchange control regulations are abolished, the transfer pricing risks associated with intellectual property will once again come to the forefront and will lead to significant loss to South African tax revenue. The three main risks that became apparent during the period before the amendment to Regulation 10(1) (c) are the following: * Transfer pricing risk consisting of mainly: - A lack of a comparables database to enable tax administrators to determine an appropriate arm’s length price for intellectual property. - A lack of the relevant skills, experience and knowledge required to accurately assess transfer prices of intellectual property. * Challenges in obtaining relevant, comprehensive and timely information to accurately determine arm’s length prices for intellectual property transactions. * A lack of understanding the principle of economic substance and legislation in South Africa to define economic substance parameters. * In this mini-dissertation, these weaknesses are discussed in more detail to highlight to SARS the trials it faces when the exchange controls regulations are expelled. Various ways in which these flaws can be challenged head-on are also presented. / MCom (South African and International Tax), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

On 8 June 2012, National Treasury amended Regulation 10(1) (c) of the Exchange Control Regulations to specifically include intellectual property. In so doing, all companies wishing to dispace intellectual property to an offshore destination had to obtain prior approval from National Treasury. However, National Treasury is reticent to grant permission to reassign these assets, as revenue from intellectual property is perceived to contribute vastly to the South African tax revenue. This amendment came into being shortly after the dismissal in the Oilwell case. This case, in essence, held that intellectual property is not capital for the purposes intended by National Treasury, and therefore no prior approval to assign it offshore is required from National Treasury. This dismissal led to a large outflow of intellectual property to tax favourable foreign locations. At the same time, it exposed transfer pricing risks that had previously gone unnoticed. Although these risks have once again been mitigated by the amendment to Regulation 10(1) (c), it does not mean that it is now a thing of the past, best left forgotten. The South African government intends to relax or abolish all exchange control regulations in the future. At present the exact date when this is to take place is not known. Once the exchange control regulations are abolished, the transfer pricing risks associated with intellectual property will once again come to the forefront and will lead to significant loss to South African tax revenue. The three main risks that became apparent during the period before the amendment to Regulation 10(1) (c) are the following: * Transfer pricing risk consisting of mainly: - A lack of a comparables database to enable tax administrators to determine an appropriate arm’s length price for intellectual property. - A lack of the relevant skills, experience and knowledge required to accurately assess transfer prices of intellectual property. * Challenges in obtaining relevant, comprehensive and timely information to accurately determine arm’s length prices for intellectual property transactions. * A lack of understanding the principle of economic substance and legislation in South Africa to define economic substance parameters. * In this mini-dissertation, these weaknesses are discussed in more detail to highlight to SARS the trials it faces when the exchange controls regulations are expelled. Various ways in which these flaws can be challenged head-on are also presented. / MCom (South African and International Tax), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Paulo Roberto Piccina Amora.pdf: 936464 bytes, checksum: b0c8df6bc6ed1643cbc76529503b3ea4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-05-29 / This paper discusses some ideas and different opinions about recent systemic banking crises. The study builds a broad framework of this episodes pointing issues like the nature of banking crises; the actions and the economic policies put in place by governments to promote the settlement of the banking crises of Chile (in the 1980s) and Japan (in the 1990s); the pragmatic and static point of view of the International Monetary Fund about the recent banking crises / Este trabalho analisa e discute idéias e pontos de vista distintos em relação às crises bancárias sistêmicas recentes. O estudo elabora um quadro bem amplo dos episódios dessa natureza examinando questões como a natureza das crises bancárias; as ações e os mecanismos de intervenção econômica postos em prática pelos governos nacionais para promover o equacionamento das crises bancárias do Chile (na década de 1980) e do Japão (na década de 1990); a visão pragmática e tecnicista das crises bancárias recentes segundo os economistas do Fundo Monetário Internacional

State-owned enterprises (SOES) exist in South Africa to drive economic development and improve service delivery to the large population. In order for SOES to achieve their mandates, as set out by government through their shareholding department, financial assistance by the state is imperative. In the case of the monopolistic power utility, Eskom, the South African government (SAGO) has 100% ownership which is managed through the Department of Public Enterprises (DPE). This total ownership by the state means that government is responsible in ensuring that the utility is operational and supported financially. The current study was aimed at evaluating the financial assistance received by SOEs in South Africa by the state with specific focus on Eskom. Eskom was selected from the eight SOES managed by the DPE for the purpose of focusing the research. The focus of the study was on the financial assistance to SOES in South Africa by the state. In 2008, Eskom received funding from different sources through loan intervention of the South African government. The loan and guarantees made available to Eskom by government, enabled the SOE to achieve a positive credit rating. Data for this research was primarily collected through academic journals, books, Acts, White Papers, legislation and personal interviews at the National Treasury (NT). The recommendation that this research states relates to the need for a single policy document on state financial assistance to SOES in South Africa. / Public Administration / M. Admin. (Public Administration)

Thesis (MDF (Development Finance))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The traditional form of delivering infrastructure and services by government is fraught with problems. These include cost overruns, time overruns and neglect of maintenance resulting in dilapidated and aged infrastructure. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are emerging as an alternative form of delivering infrastructure, not necessarily as a solution, but as a procurement option. PPPs have not been without problems either and one of them is deal flow. In this research deal flow is referred to as a rate at which PPP projects move in the pipeline from initiation to conclusion of the contract. Initiation means registration of the project by a sponsoring institution with the National Treasury of the Republic of South Africa and conclusion of the contract means financial close. Financial close is the last stage of the project when financial institutions are ready to disburse borrowed funds. It follows immediately after contractual close, i.e. the stage when parties to the agreement (government department and private sector) signed the contract. The main objective of the research was to identify factors that lead to a slow deal flow. As discussed in the research this movement takes place at a rate of two deals per annum in South Africa presently. This is not good if compared with countries such as the United Kingdom which closes deals at a pace of around 50 per annum. However it is recognised that South Africa is a developing country and is not at the same level of development as other European countries. This comparison is therefore done for benchmarking purposes. The other objective of the research was to find out where the occurrences of the blockages are in the project life cycle with the aim of removing or mitigating their impact. Finding answers to some of these questions will not only help the National Treasury but the whole country in delivering infrastructure. The motivation for this is that infrastructure development contributes to economic development, economic growth and poverty reduction and the creation of a better South Africa for us all. The main findings of the research are that a great amount of time is spent during the inception phase, that is from registration of the project to Treasury Approval 1 for the feasibility study. Contrary to literature which suggests that more time is always spent in negotiations, that does not seem to be a problem in South Africa. Therefore an aggressive push at inception phase is necessary. Lack of clear government objectives and commitment is a problem. Poorly defined sector policies and poor risk management are problems too. There is a lack of mechanisms to attract long-term finance at affordable rates. This research has proved that other phases in the cycle, i.e. Treasury Approvals 2A to Treasury Approval 3, are not a problem. In other words, the phase of inviting, evaluating, appointing and negotiating with bidders is not a problem and therefore a slow deal flow problem can be solved if initiatives are taken right from conceptualisation to feasibility. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die tradisionele manier waarop die regering infrastruktuur voorsien is deurspek van probleme. Dit sluit in oorspandering, oorskryding van spertye en gebrek aan onderhoud wat lei tot bouvallige en verouderde infrastruktuur. Publieke-private vennootskappe (public-private partnerships (PPPs)) kom na vore as 'n alternatiewe manier om infrastruktuur te skep, nie noodwendig as 'n oplossing nie, maar as 'n opsie vir verkryging. PPPs is ook nie sonder probleme nie en een van die probleme wat in hierdie navorsingstudie aangespreek word is die vloei van transaksies. In hierdie navorsing dui die vloei van transaksies (deal flow) op die tempo waarteen PPP projekte in die pyplyn beweeg vanaf die aanvang tot die sluiting van die kontrak. Aanvang beteken registrasie van die projek deur 'n borg institusie by die Nasionale Tesourie van die Republiek van Suid-Afrika en kontraksluiting beteken finansiële sluiting. Finansiële sluiting is die laaste stadium van die projek wanneer finansiële instellings gereed is om geleende geld uit te betaal. Dit volg direk op kontraksluiting, i.e. die stadium wanneer die partye tot die ooreenkoms (regeringsdepartement en privaatsektor) die kontrak onderteken het. Die stadige tempo waarteen transaksies vloei is die onderwerp van hierdie navorsing. Die hoof-doelwit van die navorsing was om faktore te identifiseer wat lei tot 'n stadige vloei van transaksies. Soos in die navorsing bespreek, vind hierdie beweging tans plaas teen 'n tempo van twee transaksies per jaar. Dit is nie goed nie, vergeleke met lande soos die Verenigde Koninkryk waar transaksies gesluit word teen 'n tempo van 50 per jaar. Daar word egter erken dat Suid-Afrika 'n ontwikkelende land is en nie op dieselfde vlak van ontwikkeling is as die ander Europese lande nie. Hierdie vergelyking word dus bloot gedoen met die doel op die vestiging van 'n maatstaf vir toekomstige verwysing. Die ander doelwit was om uit te vind waar die blokkasies in die projek se lewensiklus is met die oog daarop om dit te verwyder of die impak daarvan te verminder. Antwoorde op sommige van hierdie vrae sal nie alleen die Nasionale Tesourie help nie, maar die hele land help om infrastruktuur te skep. Die motivering hiervoor is dat die ontwikkeling van infrastruktuur bydra tot ekonomiese ontwikkeling, ekonomiese groei en die verlaging van armoede en die skep van 'n beter Suid-Afrika vir ons almal. Die hoofbevindings van hierdie navorsing is dat daar 'n groot hoeveelheid tyd spandeer word gedurende die aanvangsfase, naamlik vanaf registrasie van die projek tot by Tesourie Goedkeuring 1 vir die lewensvatbaarheidstudie. In teenstelling met die literatuur wat beweer dat meer tyd altyd spandeer word aan onderhandelings, is dit nie die probleem in Suid-Afrika nie. 'n Aggressiewe dryfkrag met die aanvangsfase is dus nodig. 'n Gebrek aan duidelike regeringsdoelwitte en -toewyding is ook 'n probleem. Swak gedefinieerde sektorbeleide en swak risikobestuur is verdere probleme. Daar is 'n gebrek aan meganismes om langtermyn-finansiering teen bekostigbare tariewe te lok. Hierdie navorsing het getoon dat ander fases in die siklus, naamlik Tesourie Goedkeuring 2A tot Tesourie Goedkeuring 3, nie problematies is nie. Met ander woorde, die fase van nooi, evalueer, aanstel en onderhandel met aanbieders is nie 'n probleem nie en die stadige transaksievloei-probleem kan dus opgelos word as inisiatief geneem word reg aan die begin van konsepsualisering tot en met die fase van lewensvatbaarheid.

Uma grande dificuldade da gestão financeira é conseguir associar métodos quantitativos às formas tradicionais de gestão, em um único arranjo. O estilo tradicional de gestão tende a não crer, na devida medida, que métodos quantitativos sejam capazes de captar toda sua visão e experiência, ao passo que analistas quantitativos tendem a subestimar a importância do enfoque tradicional, gerando flagrante desarmonia e ineficiência na análise de risco. Um modelo que se propõe a diminuir a distância entre essas visões é o modelo Black-Litterman. Mais especificamente, propõe-se a diminuir os problemas enfrentados na aplicação da teoria moderna de carteiras e, em particular, os decorrentes da aplicação do modelo de Markowitz. O modelo de Markowitz constitui a base da teoria de carteiras há mais de meio século, desde a publicação do artigo Portfolio Selection [Mar52], entretanto, apesar do papel de destaque da abordagem média-variância para o meio acadêmico, várias dificuldades aparecem quando se tenta utilizá-lo na prática, e talvez, por esta razão, seu impacto no mundo dos investimentos tem sido bastante limitado. Apesar das desvantagens na utilização do modelo de média-variância de Markowitz, a idéia de maximizar o retorno, para um dado nível de risco é tão atraente para investidores, que a busca por modelos com melhor comportamento continuou e é neste contexto que o modelo Black-Litterman surgiu. Em 1992, Fischer Black e Robert Litterman publicam o artigo Portfolio Optimization [Bla92], fazendo considerações sobre o papel de pouco destaque da alocação quantitativa de ativos, e lançam o modelo conhecido por Black-Litterman. Uma grande diferença entre o modelo Black-Litterman e um modelo média-variância tradicional é que, enquanto o segundo gera pesos em uma carteira a partir de um processo de otimização, o modelo Black-Litterman parte de uma carteira de mercado em equilíbrio de longo prazo (CAPM). Outro ponto de destaque do modelo é ser capaz de fornecer uma maneira clara para que investidores possam expressar suas visões de curto prazo e, mais importante, fornece uma estrutura para combinar de forma consistente a informação do equilíbrio de longo prazo (priori) com a visão do investidor (curto prazo), gerando um conjunto de retornos esperados, a partir do qual os pesos em cada ativo são fornecidos. Para a escolha do método de estimação dos parâmetros, levou-se em consideração o fato de que matrizes de grande dimensão têm um papel importante na avaliação de investimentos, uma vez que o risco de uma carteira é fundamentalmente determinado pela matriz de covariância de seus ativos. Levou-se também em consideração que seria desejável utilizar um modelo flexível ao aumento do número de ativos. Um modelo capaz de cumprir este papel é o GARCH ortogonal, pois este pode gerar matrizes de covariâncias do modelo original a partir de algumas poucas volatilidades univariadas, sendo, portanto, um método computacionalmente bastante simples. De fato, as variâncias e correlações são transformações de duas ou três variâncias de fatores ortogonais obtidas pela estimação GARCH. Os fatores ortogonais são obtidos por componentes principais. A decomposição da variância do sistema em fatores de risco permite quantificar a variabilidade que cada fator de risco traz, o que é de grande relevância, pois o gestor de risco poderá direcionar mais facilmente sua atenção para os fatores mais relevantes. Ressalta-se também que a ideia central da ortogonalização é utilizar um espaço reduzido de componentes. Neste modelo de dimensão reduzida, suficientes fatores de risco serão considerados, assim, os demais movimentos, ou seja, aqueles não capturados por estes fatores, serão considerados ruídos insignificantes para este sistema. Não obstante, a precisão, ao desconsiderar algumas componentes, irá depender de o número de componentes principais ser suficiente para explicar grande parte da variação do sistema. Logo, o método funcionará melhor quando a análise de componentes principais funcionar melhor, ou seja, em estruturas a termo e outros sistemas altamente correlacionados. Cabe mencionar que o GARCH ortogonal continua igualmente útil e viável quando pretende-se gerar matriz de covariâncias de fatores de risco distintos, isto é, tanto dos altamente correlacionados, quanto daqueles pouco correlacionados. Neste caso, basta realizar a análise de componentes principais em grupos correlacionados. Feito isto, obtêm-se as matrizes de covariâncias utilizando a estimação GARCH. Em seguida faz-se a combinação de todas as matrizes de covariâncias, gerando a matriz de covariâncias do sistema original. A estimação GARCH foi escolhida pois esta é capaz de captar os principais fatos estilizados que caracterizam séries temporais financeiras. Entende-se por fatos estilizados padrões estatísticos observados empiricamente, que, acredita-se serem comuns a um grande número de séries temporais. Séries financeiras com suficiente alta frequência (observações intraday e diárias) costumam apresentar tais características. Este modelo foi utilizado para a estimação dos retornos e, com isso, obtivemos todas as estimativas para que, com o modelo B-L, pudéssemos gerar uma carteira ótima em um instante de tempo inicial. Em seguida, faremos previsões, obtendo carteiras para as semanas seguintes. Por fim, mostraremos que a associação do modelo B-L e da estimação GARCH ortogonal pode gerar resultados bastante satisfatórios e, ao mesmo tempo, manter o modelo simples e gerar resultados coerentes com a intuição. Este estudo se dará sobre retornos de títulos de renda fixa, mais especificamente, títulos emitidos pelo Tesouro Nacional no mercado brasileiro. Tanto a escolha do modelo B-L, quanto a escolha por utilizar uma carteira de títulos emitidos pelo Tesouro Nacional tiveram como motivação o objetivo de aproximar ferramentas estatísticas de aplicações em finanças, em particular, títulos públicos federais emitidos em mercado, que têm se tornado cada vez mais familiares aos investidores pessoas físicas, sobretudo através do programa Tesouro Direto. Ao fazê-lo, espera-se que este estudo traga informações úteis tanto para investidores, quanto para gestores de dívida, uma vez que o modelo média-variância presta-se tanto àqueles que adquirem títulos, buscando, portanto, maximizar retorno para um dado nível de risco, quanto para aqueles que emitem títulos, e que, portanto, buscam reduzir seus custos de emissão a níveis prudenciais de risco. / One major challenge to financial management resides in associating traditional management with quantitative methods. Traditional managers tend to be skeptical about the quantitative methods contributions, whereas quantitative analysts tend to disregard the importance of the traditional view, creating clear disharmony and inefficiency in the risk management process. A model that seeks to diminish the distance between these two views is the Black-Litterman model (BLM). More specifically, it comes as a solution to difficulties faced when using modern portfolio in practice, particularly those derived from the usage of the Markowitz model. Although the Markowitz model has constituted the basis of portfolio theory for over half century, since the publication of the article Portfolio Selection [Mar52], its impact on the investment world has been quite limited. The Markowitz model addresses the most central objectives of an investment: maximizing the expected return, for a given level of risk. Even though it has had a standout role in the mean-average approach to academics, several difficulties arise when one attempts to make use of it in practice. Despite the disadvantages of its practical usage, the idea of maximizing the return for a given level of risk is so appealing to investors, that the search for models with better behavior continued, and is in this context that the Black-Litterman model came out. In 1992, Fischer Black and Robert Litterman wrote an article on the Black-Litterman model. One intrinsic difference between the BLM and a traditional mean-average one is that, while the second provides the weights of the assets in a portfolio out of a optimization routine, the BLM has its starting point at the long-run equilibrium market portfolio(CAPM). Another highlighting point of the BLM is the ability to provide one clear structucture that is able to combine the long term equilibrium information with the investors views, providing a set of expected returns, which, together, will be the input to generate the weights on the assets. As far as the estimation process is concerned, and for the purpose of choosing the most appropriate model, it was taken into consideration the fact that the risk of a portfolio is determined by the covariation matrix of its assets and, being so, matrices with large dimensions play an important role in the analysis of investments. Whereas, provided the application under study, it is desirable to have a model that is able to carry out the analysis for a considerable number of assets. For these reasons, the Orthogonal GARCH was selected, once it can generate the matrix of covariation of the original system from just a few univariate volatilities, and for this reason, it is a computationally simple method. The orthogonal factors are obtained with principal components analysis. Decomposing the variance of the system into risk factors is highly important, once it allows the risk manager to focus separately on each relevant source of risk. The main idea behind the orthogonalization consists in working with a reduced dimension of components. In this kind of model, sufficient risk factors are considered, thus, the variability not perceived by the model will be considered insigficant noise to the system. Nevertheless, the precision, when not using all the components, will depend on the number of components be sufficient to explain the major part of the variability. Moreover, the model will provide reasonable results depending on principal component analysis performing properly as well, what will be more likely to happen, in highly correlated systems. It is worthy of note that the Orthogonal GARCH is equally useful and feasible when one intends to analyse a portfolio consisting of assets across various types of risk, it means, a system which is not highly correlated. It is common to have such a portfolio, with, for instance, currency rates, stocks, fixed income and commodities. In order to make it to perform properly, it is necessary to separate groups with the same kind of risk and then carry out the principal component analysis by group and then merge the covariance matrices, producing the covariance matrix of the original system. To work together with the orthogonalization method, the GARCH model was chosen because it is able to draw the main stylized facts which characterize financial time series. Stylized facts are statistical patterns empirically observed, which are believed to be present in a number of time series. Financial time series which sufficient high frequency (intraday, daily and even weekly) usually present such behavior. For estimating returns purposes, it was used a ARMA model, and together with the covariance matrix estimation, we have all the parameters needed to perform the BLM study, coming out, in the end, with the optimal portfolio in a given initial time. In addition, we will make forecasts with the GARCH model, obtaining optimal portfolio for the following weeks. We will show that the association of the BLM with the Orthogonal GARCH model can generate satisfactory and coherent with intuition results and, at the same time, keeping the model simple. Our application is on fixed income returns, more specifically, returns of bonds issued in the domestic market by the Brazilian National Treasury. The motivation of this work was to put together statistical tolls and finance uses and applications, more specifically those related to the bonds issued by the National Treasuy, which have become more and more popular due to the \"Tesouro Direto\" program. In conclusion, this work aims to bring useful information either for investors or to debt managers, once the mean-variance model can be useful for those who want to maximize return at a given level or risk as for those who issue bonds, and, thus, seek to reduce their issuance costs at prudential levels of risk.

Uma grande dificuldade da gestão financeira é conseguir associar métodos quantitativos às formas tradicionais de gestão, em um único arranjo. O estilo tradicional de gestão tende a não crer, na devida medida, que métodos quantitativos sejam capazes de captar toda sua visão e experiência, ao passo que analistas quantitativos tendem a subestimar a importância do enfoque tradicional, gerando flagrante desarmonia e ineficiência na análise de risco. Um modelo que se propõe a diminuir a distância entre essas visões é o modelo Black-Litterman. Mais especificamente, propõe-se a diminuir os problemas enfrentados na aplicação da teoria moderna de carteiras e, em particular, os decorrentes da aplicação do modelo de Markowitz. O modelo de Markowitz constitui a base da teoria de carteiras há mais de meio século, desde a publicação do artigo Portfolio Selection [Mar52], entretanto, apesar do papel de destaque da abordagem média-variância para o meio acadêmico, várias dificuldades aparecem quando se tenta utilizá-lo na prática, e talvez, por esta razão, seu impacto no mundo dos investimentos tem sido bastante limitado. Apesar das desvantagens na utilização do modelo de média-variância de Markowitz, a idéia de maximizar o retorno, para um dado nível de risco é tão atraente para investidores, que a busca por modelos com melhor comportamento continuou e é neste contexto que o modelo Black-Litterman surgiu. Em 1992, Fischer Black e Robert Litterman publicam o artigo Portfolio Optimization [Bla92], fazendo considerações sobre o papel de pouco destaque da alocação quantitativa de ativos, e lançam o modelo conhecido por Black-Litterman. Uma grande diferença entre o modelo Black-Litterman e um modelo média-variância tradicional é que, enquanto o segundo gera pesos em uma carteira a partir de um processo de otimização, o modelo Black-Litterman parte de uma carteira de mercado em equilíbrio de longo prazo (CAPM). Outro ponto de destaque do modelo é ser capaz de fornecer uma maneira clara para que investidores possam expressar suas visões de curto prazo e, mais importante, fornece uma estrutura para combinar de forma consistente a informação do equilíbrio de longo prazo (priori) com a visão do investidor (curto prazo), gerando um conjunto de retornos esperados, a partir do qual os pesos em cada ativo são fornecidos. Para a escolha do método de estimação dos parâmetros, levou-se em consideração o fato de que matrizes de grande dimensão têm um papel importante na avaliação de investimentos, uma vez que o risco de uma carteira é fundamentalmente determinado pela matriz de covariância de seus ativos. Levou-se também em consideração que seria desejável utilizar um modelo flexível ao aumento do número de ativos. Um modelo capaz de cumprir este papel é o GARCH ortogonal, pois este pode gerar matrizes de covariâncias do modelo original a partir de algumas poucas volatilidades univariadas, sendo, portanto, um método computacionalmente bastante simples. De fato, as variâncias e correlações são transformações de duas ou três variâncias de fatores ortogonais obtidas pela estimação GARCH. Os fatores ortogonais são obtidos por componentes principais. A decomposição da variância do sistema em fatores de risco permite quantificar a variabilidade que cada fator de risco traz, o que é de grande relevância, pois o gestor de risco poderá direcionar mais facilmente sua atenção para os fatores mais relevantes. Ressalta-se também que a ideia central da ortogonalização é utilizar um espaço reduzido de componentes. Neste modelo de dimensão reduzida, suficientes fatores de risco serão considerados, assim, os demais movimentos, ou seja, aqueles não capturados por estes fatores, serão considerados ruídos insignificantes para este sistema. Não obstante, a precisão, ao desconsiderar algumas componentes, irá depender de o número de componentes principais ser suficiente para explicar grande parte da variação do sistema. Logo, o método funcionará melhor quando a análise de componentes principais funcionar melhor, ou seja, em estruturas a termo e outros sistemas altamente correlacionados. Cabe mencionar que o GARCH ortogonal continua igualmente útil e viável quando pretende-se gerar matriz de covariâncias de fatores de risco distintos, isto é, tanto dos altamente correlacionados, quanto daqueles pouco correlacionados. Neste caso, basta realizar a análise de componentes principais em grupos correlacionados. Feito isto, obtêm-se as matrizes de covariâncias utilizando a estimação GARCH. Em seguida faz-se a combinação de todas as matrizes de covariâncias, gerando a matriz de covariâncias do sistema original. A estimação GARCH foi escolhida pois esta é capaz de captar os principais fatos estilizados que caracterizam séries temporais financeiras. Entende-se por fatos estilizados padrões estatísticos observados empiricamente, que, acredita-se serem comuns a um grande número de séries temporais. Séries financeiras com suficiente alta frequência (observações intraday e diárias) costumam apresentar tais características. Este modelo foi utilizado para a estimação dos retornos e, com isso, obtivemos todas as estimativas para que, com o modelo B-L, pudéssemos gerar uma carteira ótima em um instante de tempo inicial. Em seguida, faremos previsões, obtendo carteiras para as semanas seguintes. Por fim, mostraremos que a associação do modelo B-L e da estimação GARCH ortogonal pode gerar resultados bastante satisfatórios e, ao mesmo tempo, manter o modelo simples e gerar resultados coerentes com a intuição. Este estudo se dará sobre retornos de títulos de renda fixa, mais especificamente, títulos emitidos pelo Tesouro Nacional no mercado brasileiro. Tanto a escolha do modelo B-L, quanto a escolha por utilizar uma carteira de títulos emitidos pelo Tesouro Nacional tiveram como motivação o objetivo de aproximar ferramentas estatísticas de aplicações em finanças, em particular, títulos públicos federais emitidos em mercado, que têm se tornado cada vez mais familiares aos investidores pessoas físicas, sobretudo através do programa Tesouro Direto. Ao fazê-lo, espera-se que este estudo traga informações úteis tanto para investidores, quanto para gestores de dívida, uma vez que o modelo média-variância presta-se tanto àqueles que adquirem títulos, buscando, portanto, maximizar retorno para um dado nível de risco, quanto para aqueles que emitem títulos, e que, portanto, buscam reduzir seus custos de emissão a níveis prudenciais de risco. / One major challenge to financial management resides in associating traditional management with quantitative methods. Traditional managers tend to be skeptical about the quantitative methods contributions, whereas quantitative analysts tend to disregard the importance of the traditional view, creating clear disharmony and inefficiency in the risk management process. A model that seeks to diminish the distance between these two views is the Black-Litterman model (BLM). More specifically, it comes as a solution to difficulties faced when using modern portfolio in practice, particularly those derived from the usage of the Markowitz model. Although the Markowitz model has constituted the basis of portfolio theory for over half century, since the publication of the article Portfolio Selection [Mar52], its impact on the investment world has been quite limited. The Markowitz model addresses the most central objectives of an investment: maximizing the expected return, for a given level of risk. Even though it has had a standout role in the mean-average approach to academics, several difficulties arise when one attempts to make use of it in practice. Despite the disadvantages of its practical usage, the idea of maximizing the return for a given level of risk is so appealing to investors, that the search for models with better behavior continued, and is in this context that the Black-Litterman model came out. In 1992, Fischer Black and Robert Litterman wrote an article on the Black-Litterman model. One intrinsic difference between the BLM and a traditional mean-average one is that, while the second provides the weights of the assets in a portfolio out of a optimization routine, the BLM has its starting point at the long-run equilibrium market portfolio(CAPM). Another highlighting point of the BLM is the ability to provide one clear structucture that is able to combine the long term equilibrium information with the investors views, providing a set of expected returns, which, together, will be the input to generate the weights on the assets. As far as the estimation process is concerned, and for the purpose of choosing the most appropriate model, it was taken into consideration the fact that the risk of a portfolio is determined by the covariation matrix of its assets and, being so, matrices with large dimensions play an important role in the analysis of investments. Whereas, provided the application under study, it is desirable to have a model that is able to carry out the analysis for a considerable number of assets. For these reasons, the Orthogonal GARCH was selected, once it can generate the matrix of covariation of the original system from just a few univariate volatilities, and for this reason, it is a computationally simple method. The orthogonal factors are obtained with principal components analysis. Decomposing the variance of the system into risk factors is highly important, once it allows the risk manager to focus separately on each relevant source of risk. The main idea behind the orthogonalization consists in working with a reduced dimension of components. In this kind of model, sufficient risk factors are considered, thus, the variability not perceived by the model will be considered insigficant noise to the system. Nevertheless, the precision, when not using all the components, will depend on the number of components be sufficient to explain the major part of the variability. Moreover, the model will provide reasonable results depending on principal component analysis performing properly as well, what will be more likely to happen, in highly correlated systems. It is worthy of note that the Orthogonal GARCH is equally useful and feasible when one intends to analyse a portfolio consisting of assets across various types of risk, it means, a system which is not highly correlated. It is common to have such a portfolio, with, for instance, currency rates, stocks, fixed income and commodities. In order to make it to perform properly, it is necessary to separate groups with the same kind of risk and then carry out the principal component analysis by group and then merge the covariance matrices, producing the covariance matrix of the original system. To work together with the orthogonalization method, the GARCH model was chosen because it is able to draw the main stylized facts which characterize financial time series. Stylized facts are statistical patterns empirically observed, which are believed to be present in a number of time series. Financial time series which sufficient high frequency (intraday, daily and even weekly) usually present such behavior. For estimating returns purposes, it was used a ARMA model, and together with the covariance matrix estimation, we have all the parameters needed to perform the BLM study, coming out, in the end, with the optimal portfolio in a given initial time. In addition, we will make forecasts with the GARCH model, obtaining optimal portfolio for the following weeks. We will show that the association of the BLM with the Orthogonal GARCH model can generate satisfactory and coherent with intuition results and, at the same time, keeping the model simple. Our application is on fixed income returns, more specifically, returns of bonds issued in the domestic market by the Brazilian National Treasury. The motivation of this work was to put together statistical tolls and finance uses and applications, more specifically those related to the bonds issued by the National Treasuy, which have become more and more popular due to the \"Tesouro Direto\" program. In conclusion, this work aims to bring useful information either for investors or to debt managers, once the mean-variance model can be useful for those who want to maximize return at a given level or risk as for those who issue bonds, and, thus, seek to reduce their issuance costs at prudential levels of risk.

Submitted by Frederico Bendzius (fbendzius@gmail.com) on 2017-05-31T21:45:18Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_05_31 - dissertação FB.pdf: 2222607 bytes, checksum: 8a9808254ca7990b8aa9dbf966311f09 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Joana Martorini (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2017-06-01T11:31:00Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_05_31 - dissertação FB.pdf: 2222607 bytes, checksum: 8a9808254ca7990b8aa9dbf966311f09 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-02T13:03:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_05_31 - dissertação FB.pdf: 2222607 bytes, checksum: 8a9808254ca7990b8aa9dbf966311f09 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-04-27 / Nesta pesquisa, objetiva-se tratar da aplicação do precedente judicial nas atividades da Administração Tributária. Mais especificamente, pretende-se debater como a Procuradoria Geral do Estado de São Paulo pode orientar suas ações após a fixação de teses em precedentes. O tema é relevante em razão do princípio da isonomia tributária e para a redução da litigiosidade. Utilizei como método o exame da literatura e da legislação, além da experiência institucional da Procuradoria Geral da Fazenda Nacional. Concluí que a valoração dos precedentes deve ser incorporado ao quotidiano da Procuradoria Geral do Estado de São Paulo a fim de dar mais eficiência à sua atividade. / In this research, the objective is to deal with the application of judicial precedent in the activities of the Tax Administration. More specifically, it intends to discuss how the Attorney General's Office of the State of São Paulo can guide its actions after setting theses in precedents. The issue is relevant due to the principle of tax isonomy and to the reduction of litigation. I used as method the examination of the literature and legislation, in addition to the institutional experience of the Attorney General of the National Treasury. I concluded that the valuation of precedents should be incorporated into the daily routine of the Attorney General's Office of the State of São Paulo in order to give more efficiency to its activity.

State-owned enterprises (SOES) exist in South Africa to drive economic development and improve service delivery to the large population. In order for SOES to achieve their mandates, as set out by government through their shareholding department, financial assistance by the state is imperative. In the case of the monopolistic power utility, Eskom, the South African government (SAGO) has 100% ownership which is managed through the Department of Public Enterprises (DPE). This total ownership by the state means that government is responsible in ensuring that the utility is operational and supported financially. The current study was aimed at evaluating the financial assistance received by SOEs in South Africa by the state with specific focus on Eskom. Eskom was selected from the eight SOES managed by the DPE for the purpose of focusing the research. The focus of the study was on the financial assistance to SOES in South Africa by the state. In 2008, Eskom received funding from different sources through loan intervention of the South African government. The loan and guarantees made available to Eskom by government, enabled the SOE to achieve a positive credit rating. Data for this research was primarily collected through academic journals, books, Acts, White Papers, legislation and personal interviews at the National Treasury (NT). The recommendation that this research states relates to the need for a single policy document on state financial assistance to SOES in South Africa. / Public Administration and Management / M. Admin. (Public Administration)

This study was conducted to generate an in-depth understanding of key internal audit function (IAF) customers’ perceptions of the work performed by the Department of National Treasury’s IAF. This study was further intended to address the absence of any qualitative study of IAF customers’ experiences and expectations, and their perceptions of the challenges the IAF faces. The study had five research objectives, namely: to identify the role of the IAF in the public sector in relation to its customers; to discuss strategies to meet the expectations of IAF customers; to determine the experiences of the identified key IAF customers of the work performed by the IAF in the National Treasury; to determine the expectations of the identified key IAF customers of the IAF in the National Treasury, and to ascertain what the identified key IAF customers perceive to be challenges facing the IAF in the National Treasury. In order to achieve the research objectives, the study implemented a qualitative research design using the National Treasury as a case study. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with participants selected from the key IAF customers’ categories (comprising the audit committee (AC), executive and senior managers, programme and operating managers, and external auditors). Three main themes emerged from the identified key customers’ views. These were (1) Experiences, which revealed that the participants were reasonably satisfied with the work of the IAF in the National Treasury. Participants from the AC, the executive and senior managers, and the Auditor General of South Africa (AGSA) felt that the IAF does add value, while the programme and operating managers participants indicated that the IAF does not demonstrate a holistic view when it conducts evaluations. (2) Expectations, the AC participants expected the AGSA to be able to rely on the work of the IAF, that the IAF should maintain a findings register, and that it should demonstrate IT skills. Executive and senior managers participants expected the IAF to add value to the strategic direction of the National Treasury. Programme and operating managers participants expected the IAF to be open and consultative, to set realistic audit plans, to provide regular feedback, and to demonstrate knowledge of the business. The AGSA participants called for the IAF to demonstrate technical competencies as well as independence and objectivity. (3) Challenges, participants perceived the IAF’s lack of knowledge of the business, the limited reliance placed on its work by the AGSA, the lack of audit action monitoring processes and the lack of management support for the IAF as its biggest challenges. This study could benefit the National Treasury’s IAF by helping it to understand the changing needs and expectations of its customers, and to identify areas for improvement. It may also benefit professional audit bodies and the newly-established National School of Government by providing them with insights into the training needs of internal auditors, and the necessity of providing continuing professional educational programmes. / Auditing / MCom (Auditing)