nÃo hà / A socioeconomia cearense sofreu intensas modificaÃÃes ao longo da dÃcada passada, havendo uma reduÃÃo da desigualdade social graÃas a mudanÃas no perfil de intervenÃÃo do Estado. Como o Sistema de Transporte Intermunicipal de Passageiros do Cearà (STIP-CE) foi planejado para a realidade do inÃcio dos anos 2000, presume-se que a oferta atual nÃo atenda Ãs necessidades dos usuÃrios no que diz respeito a sua mobilidade e acessibilidade. AlÃm disso, sendo um fenÃmeno eminentemente geogrÃfico, à necessÃrio o uso de ferramentas de estatÃstica espacial para analisÃ-lo. PorÃm, hà problemas na aplicaÃÃo dessas ferramentas na seara de transporte, derivados da inexistÃncia de mÃtodo adequado sobre o tema. Logo, o objetivo geral desta pesquisa de dissertaÃÃo de mestrado à analisar as alteraÃÃes no padrÃo espacial da geraÃÃo das viagens intermunicipais de passageiros a partir das mudanÃas socioeconÃmicas ocorridas nos municÃpios do Cearà na dÃcada de 2000, aplicando-se o ferramental de anÃlise espacial exploratÃria para verificaÃÃo das hipÃteses de que (i) o aumento da renda dos indivÃduos impacta no aumento de viagens por transporte particular e, por conseguinte, na reduÃÃo da demanda por viagens por transporte pÃblico; e (ii) a reduÃÃo nas diferenÃas de atividade econÃmicas dos municÃpios, que expressa a reduÃÃo do poder polarizador, impacta na reduÃÃo de viagens por transporte pÃblico. Para isso foi proposto um mÃtodo para utilizaÃÃo dessas ferramentas, bem como para estruturaÃÃo de uma base de dados georreferenciada. Os resultados de sua aplicaÃÃo trazem mais evidÃncias de que a hipÃtese de que nÃo hà relaÃÃo entre evoluÃÃo socioeconÃmica e demanda por transportes pode ser rejeitada, na medida em que se observaram correlaÃÃes entre esses fenÃmenos, sobretudo no entorno da RegiÃo Metropolitana de Fortaleza tanto para viagens regionais como para as radiais. Hà algumas localidades, porÃm, que devem ser analisadas de acordo com suas particularidades socioeconÃmicas e nÃvel de serviÃo ofertado (Sobral/Ibiapaba e oeste do Litoral Oeste para viagens regionais e Cariri, para as radiais). Como recomendaÃÃes, observa-se (i) que o mÃtodo proposto pode ser complementado, (ii) que deve haver maior acurÃcia no levantamento de dados de demanda do STIP-CE por parte do Poder PÃblico cearense e (iii) que se deve dar continuidade do mÃtodo a fim de quantificar as relaÃÃes entre fenÃmenos e testar hipÃteses de sua existÃncia, mediante modelo de anÃlise confirmatÃrio local. / The Socioeconomics of Cearà suffered enormous changes over the past decade, with a reduction of social inequality due to changes in state intervention policies. As the Intermunicipal System of Transport of Passengers of Cearà (STIP-CE) was planned according to the reality of the early 2000s, it is assumed that the current offer does not meet the requisites of mobility and accessibility for passengers. Also, as Transport is a eminently geographical phenomenon, it is necessary to use the spatial statistics tools to analyze it. However, problems in the implementation of these tools were found in the compilation of data, derived from the lack of consolidated method on the subject. Thus, the general objective of this master thesis research is to analyze the changes in the spatial pattern of the passengers demand for intercity public transportation from socioeconomic changes in the municipalities of Cearà in the 2000s, applying the exploratory spatial analysis tools to verify the hypotheses that (i) the increase in the income of individuals influences the increase of trip by private transportation and therefore reduces the demand for trip by public transport; and (ii) reducing the differences in economic activity of municipalities, which expresses the reduction in polarizing power, impacts on reducing trip by public transportation. To this end a method to use these tools has been proposed, as well as a georeferenced database was compiled. The results of its application shows further evidence that the hypothesis that there is no relationship between socioeconomic development and demand for transport can be rejected, as observed by correlation between these phenomena, especially around the metropolitan area of Fortaleza for both regional and radial trips. There are some places, however, that should be analyzed according to their socioeconomic characteristics and level of service offered (like Sobral/Ibiapaba and west of the Litoral Oeste for regional trip and Cariri, for radial). As recommendations, it is noted (i) that the proposed method can be supplemented, (ii) there should be greater accuracy in the collection of STIP-CE demand data from the Cearà Government and (iii) the method hereby proposed should be given continuity in order to quantify the relationships between phenomena and test hypotheses of its existence by local confirmatory models.

Neste trabalho é proposto um modelo para estimar a geração e a distribuição de viagens intraurbanas baseado em agentes, denominado Modelo GDA. Neste modelo foram aplicadas simulações em Sistemas Multiagentes (SMA), nas quais foram usadas, como dados de entrada, informações relativas ao morador e ao uso do solo. Na estimativa da geração de viagens, a simulação SMA foi usada para estimar uma população sintética baseada nas informações sociodemográficas dos moradores e para obter um plano de atividades associado a cada morador. Na estimativa da distribuição de viagens, a simulação SMA foi usada para obter uma matriz Origem-Destino (OD) com base no plano de atividades dos moradores e nos atributos do uso do solo. Para definir os critérios da distribuição de viagens, foram testadas teorias alternativas à força gravitacional, como a teoria das redes livres de escala e o conceito de path dependence. Foi feita uma aplicação do Modelo GDA na cidade de São Carlos (SP), cujos resultados estimados foram comparados aos resultados observados, provenientes da pesquisa Origem-Destino (OD), e aos resultados estimados obtidos pela aplicação de modelos gravitacionais nesta cidade. Os resultados mostraram que os resultados estimados obtidos pelo Modelo GDA são tão acurados quanto aos do modelo gravitacional. Conclui-se que o Modelo GDA, comparativamente ao modelo gravitacional, possui vantagens quanto à sua aplicabilidade, pois em vez de serem utilizados pelo modelo dados provenientes de pesquisas de tráfego, geralmente onerosos e de difícil aquisição; são empregados dados acerca do morador e do uso do solo, de fácil coleta e atualização periódica. / In this work, an agent-based model in order to estimate trip generation and trip distribution in an intra-urban context (GDA model) is proposed. Simulations using Multiagent Systems (MAS), with input data concerning dwellers and land use were applied in this model. To estimate the trip generation, the MAS simulation was used to elaborate a synthetic population based on sociodemographic information of the dwellers and to obtain an activity plan of each dweller. To estimate the trip distribution, the MAS simulation was used to obtain an Origin-Destiny (OD) matrix based on the dwellers activity plans and the land use characteristics. To define the trip distribution rules, alternative theories to gravitational force like free scale networks and path dependence theories were tested. The GDA model was applied in the urban area of São Carlos (Brazil), whose estimates was compared to the observed data from the OD survey and the estimate data from the Gravity model applied in this same area. The results showed that the estimates from the GDA Model are as accurate as from the Gravity Model. It was observed that the GDA Model presents advantages in relation to the Gravity Model because instead of using traffic survey data, which often is expensive and difficult to get, it uses dwellers and land use information, which is periodically collected from government researches, making it easy for government agencies to obtain this information.

In dieser Arbeit wird ein simultanes Quell-, Ziel-, Verkehrsmittel- und Routenwahlmodell (Modell EVA-U) entwickelt, welches ein stochastisches Nutzergleichgewicht erreicht. Die Routenwahlmodelle der Verkehrsarten sind nicht mehr Teil der Umlegungsalgorithmen, sondern in das Nachfragemodell integriert. Dadurch ist eine konsistente Bewertung aller Alternativen (der Verkehrsarten) möglich. Das Simultanmodell EVA-U stellt eine Weiterentwicklung des Simultanmodells EVA von LOHSE dar. Das EVA-U-Modell ist den universalen Logit-Modellen zuzuordnen. Die Randsummenbedingungen der Verkehrsverteilung werden beachtet. Die Bewertung der Alternativen erfolgt mittels Generalisierter Kosten. Die Abhängigkeit von Routen wird berücksichtigt, ebenso die Tagesganglinie der Verkehrsnachfrage und die Fahrpläne des ÖV-Systems. Das Modell EVA-U erlaubt auch die Berücksichtigung von Routen intermodaler Verkehrsarten (z.B. P+R). Darüber hinaus ist die Integration eines Modells des ruhenden Verkehrs möglich. / In this thesis a simultaneous Trip Generation-, Distribution-, Modal-Split and Route Choice Model (modell EVA-U) is elaborated. The model tends to reach a stochastic user equilibrium. The route choice algorithms are not longer part of an assignment procedure but part of the demand model. A consistent assessment of properties of all transport systems is possible. The simultaneous model EVA-U is an advancement of the EVA-Model by Lohse. The model EVA-U is to be assigned to the generalised logit-models. All matrix constrains are taken into account. The assessment is effected by generalised costs. The dependence of routes is taken into account. Moreover, the integration of day time and the schedules of private transport lines is possible. Furthermore, it is possible to integrate a model of parked cars and circuits of inter-modal traffic forms (park and ride) in the Model EVA-U.

In dieser Arbeit wird ein simultanes Quell-, Ziel-, Verkehrsmittel- und Routenwahlmodell (Modell EVA-U) entwickelt, welches ein stochastisches Nutzergleichgewicht erreicht. Die Routenwahlmodelle der Verkehrsarten sind nicht mehr Teil der Umlegungsalgorithmen, sondern in das Nachfragemodell integriert. Dadurch ist eine konsistente Bewertung aller Alternativen (der Verkehrsarten) möglich. Das Simultanmodell EVA-U stellt eine Weiterentwicklung des Simultanmodells EVA von LOHSE dar. Das EVA-U-Modell ist den universalen Logit-Modellen zuzuordnen. Die Randsummenbedingungen der Verkehrsverteilung werden beachtet. Die Bewertung der Alternativen erfolgt mittels Generalisierter Kosten. Die Abhängigkeit von Routen wird berücksichtigt, ebenso die Tagesganglinie der Verkehrsnachfrage und die Fahrpläne des ÖV-Systems. Das Modell EVA-U erlaubt auch die Berücksichtigung von Routen intermodaler Verkehrsarten (z.B. P+R). Darüber hinaus ist die Integration eines Modells des ruhenden Verkehrs möglich. / In this thesis a simultaneous Trip Generation-, Distribution-, Modal-Split and Route Choice Model (modell EVA-U) is elaborated. The model tends to reach a stochastic user equilibrium. The route choice algorithms are not longer part of an assignment procedure but part of the demand model. A consistent assessment of properties of all transport systems is possible. The simultaneous model EVA-U is an advancement of the EVA-Model by Lohse. The model EVA-U is to be assigned to the generalised logit-models. All matrix constrains are taken into account. The assessment is effected by generalised costs. The dependence of routes is taken into account. Moreover, the integration of day time and the schedules of private transport lines is possible. Furthermore, it is possible to integrate a model of parked cars and circuits of inter-modal traffic forms (park and ride) in the Model EVA-U.