On fait l'analyse de la dynamique nonlinéaire d'une colonne de forage avec modélisation d'incertitudes. Une colonne de forage est une structure flexible mince qui tourne et fore des roches en cherchant du pétrole. Un modèle mathématique-mécanique est développeé pour cette structure en incluant de l'interaction fluide-structure, des impact, des nonlinéarités géométriques, et de l'interaction tête de la colonne-roche. Les équations de mouvement sont déduites, puis le système est discretisé par la méthode des éléments finis, et un code numérique est développeé pour les simulations numériques avec le logiciel MATLAB. Les modes normaux de la dynamique à la configuration précontrainte sont utilisés pour construire un modèle reduit pour le système. L'approche probabiliste nonparamétrique, qui est capable de prendre en compte les incertitude des paramètres du système et aussi les incertitude de modèle, est utilisée. Les fonctions densités de probabilité liées aux variables aléatoire sont construites par la méthode du Maximum d'Entropie et la réponse stochastique du système est calculée en utilisant la méthode de Monte Carlo. Une nouvelle approche pour prendre en compte des incertitudes de modèle dans une équation constitutive nonlinéaire (interaction tête de la colonne-roche) est développeé avec l'approche probabiliste nonparamétrique. La méthode du maximum de vraisemblance et la réduction statistique dans le domaine de la fréquence (Analyse de composantes principales) sont utilisés pour identifier le modèle probabiliste de l'interaction tête de la colonne-roche. Finalement, un problème d'optimisation robuste est analysé de façon à trouver les paramètres opérationnels du système qui maximise sa performance et respectent les limites d'intégrités du système, comme fatigue et instabilitée / This thesis analyzes the nonlinear dynamics of a drill-string including uncertainty modeling. A drill-string is a slender flexible structure that rotates and digs into the rock in search of oil. A mathematical-mechanical model is developed for this structure including fluid-structure interaction, impact, geometrical nonlinearities and bit-rock interaction. After the derivation of the equations of motion, the system is discretized by means of the finite element method and a computer code is developed for the numerical computations using the software MATLAB. The normal modes of the dynamical system in the prestressed configuration are used to construct a reduced order model for the system. To take into account uncertainties, the nonparametric probabilistic approach, which is able to take into account both system-parameter and model uncertainties, is used. The probability density functions related to the random variables are constructed using the maximum entropy principle and the stochastic response of the system is calculated using the Monte Carlo method. A novel approach to take into account model uncertainties in a nonlinear constitutive equation (bit-rock interaction model) is developed using the nonparametric probabilistic approach. To identify the probabilistic model of the bit-rock interaction model, the maximum likelihood method together with a statistical reduction in the frequency domain (using the Principal Component Analysis) is applied. Finally, a robust optimization problem is performed to find the operational parameters of the system that maximizes its performance, respecting the integrity limits of the system, such as fatigue and instability

Técnicas de projeção desempenham papel importante na análise e exploração de dados multidimensionais, já que permitem visualizar informações muitas vezes ocultas na alta dimensão. Esta tese explora o potencial destas técnicas para resolver problemas relacionados à: 1) identificação de agrupamentos e 2) busca por similaridade em dados multidimensionais. Para identificação de agrupamentos foi desenvolvida uma técnica de projeção local e interativa que, além de projetar dados com ótima preservação de distâncias, permite que o usuário modifique o layout da projeção, agrupando um número reduzido de amostras representativas no espaço visual, de acordo com suas características. Os mapeamentos produzidos tendem a seguir o layout das amostras organizadas pelo usuário, facilitando a organização dos dados e identificação de agrupamentos. Contudo, nem sempre é possível selecionar ou agrupar amostras com base em suas características visuais de forma confiável, principalmente quando os dados não são rotulados. Para estas situações, um novo método para identificação de agrupamentos baseado em projeção foi proposto, o qual opera no espaço visual, garantindo que os grupos obtidos não fiquem fragmentados durante a visualização. Além disso, é orientado por um mecanismo de amostragem determinístico, apto a identificar instâncias que representam bem o conjunto de dados como um todo e capaz de operar mesmo em conjuntos de dados desbalanceados. Para o segundo problema: busca por similaridade em dados multidimensionais, uma família de métricas baseada em classes foi construída para projetar os dados, com o objetivo de minimizar a dissimilaridade entre pares de objetos pertencentes à mesma classe e, ao mesmo tempo, maximizá-la para objetos pertencentes a classes distintas. As métricas classes-específicas são avaliadas no contexto de recuperação de imagens com base em conteúdo. Com o intuito de aumentar a precisão da família de métricas classes-específicas, outra técnica foi desenvolvida, a qual emprega a teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy para estimar um valor de incerteza que é transferido para a métrica, aumentando sua precisão. Os resultados confirmam a efetividade das técnicas desenvolvidas, as quais representam significativa contribuição na tarefa de identificação de grupos e busca por similaridade em dados multidimensionais. / Projection techniques play an important role in multidimensional data analysis and exploration, since they allow to visualize information frequently hidden in high-dimensional spaces. This thesis explores the potential of those techniques to solve problems related to: 1) clustering and 2) similarity search in multidimensional data. For clustering data, a local and interactive projection technique capable of projecting data with effective preservation of distances was developed. This one allows the user to manipulate a reduced number of representative samples in the visual space so as to better organize them. The final mappings tend to follow the layout of the samples organized by the user, therefore, the user can interactively steer the projection. This makes it easy to organize and group large data sets. However, it is not always possible to select or group samples visually, in a reliable manner, mainly when handling unlabeled data. For these cases, a new clustering method based on multidimensional projection was proposed, which operates in the visual space, ensuring that clusters are not fragmented during the visualization. Moreover, it is driven by a deterministic sampling mechanism, able to identify instances that are good representatives for the whole data set. The proposed method is versatile and robust when dealing with unbalanced data sets. For the second problem: similarity search in multidimensional data, we build a family of class-specific metrics to project data. Such metrics were tailored to minimize the dissimilarity measure among objects from the same class and, simultaneously to maximize the dissimilarity among objects in distinct classes. The class-specific metrics are assessed in the context of content-based image retrieval. With the aim of increasing the precision of the class-specific metrics, another technique was developed. This one, uses the fuzzy set theory to estimate a degree of uncertainty, which is embedded in the metric, increasing its precision. The results confirm the effectiveness of the developed techniques, which represent significant contributions for clustering and similarity search in multidimensional data.

Técnicas de projeção desempenham papel importante na análise e exploração de dados multidimensionais, já que permitem visualizar informações muitas vezes ocultas na alta dimensão. Esta tese explora o potencial destas técnicas para resolver problemas relacionados à: 1) identificação de agrupamentos e 2) busca por similaridade em dados multidimensionais. Para identificação de agrupamentos foi desenvolvida uma técnica de projeção local e interativa que, além de projetar dados com ótima preservação de distâncias, permite que o usuário modifique o layout da projeção, agrupando um número reduzido de amostras representativas no espaço visual, de acordo com suas características. Os mapeamentos produzidos tendem a seguir o layout das amostras organizadas pelo usuário, facilitando a organização dos dados e identificação de agrupamentos. Contudo, nem sempre é possível selecionar ou agrupar amostras com base em suas características visuais de forma confiável, principalmente quando os dados não são rotulados. Para estas situações, um novo método para identificação de agrupamentos baseado em projeção foi proposto, o qual opera no espaço visual, garantindo que os grupos obtidos não fiquem fragmentados durante a visualização. Além disso, é orientado por um mecanismo de amostragem determinístico, apto a identificar instâncias que representam bem o conjunto de dados como um todo e capaz de operar mesmo em conjuntos de dados desbalanceados. Para o segundo problema: busca por similaridade em dados multidimensionais, uma família de métricas baseada em classes foi construída para projetar os dados, com o objetivo de minimizar a dissimilaridade entre pares de objetos pertencentes à mesma classe e, ao mesmo tempo, maximizá-la para objetos pertencentes a classes distintas. As métricas classes-específicas são avaliadas no contexto de recuperação de imagens com base em conteúdo. Com o intuito de aumentar a precisão da família de métricas classes-específicas, outra técnica foi desenvolvida, a qual emprega a teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy para estimar um valor de incerteza que é transferido para a métrica, aumentando sua precisão. Os resultados confirmam a efetividade das técnicas desenvolvidas, as quais representam significativa contribuição na tarefa de identificação de grupos e busca por similaridade em dados multidimensionais. / Projection techniques play an important role in multidimensional data analysis and exploration, since they allow to visualize information frequently hidden in high-dimensional spaces. This thesis explores the potential of those techniques to solve problems related to: 1) clustering and 2) similarity search in multidimensional data. For clustering data, a local and interactive projection technique capable of projecting data with effective preservation of distances was developed. This one allows the user to manipulate a reduced number of representative samples in the visual space so as to better organize them. The final mappings tend to follow the layout of the samples organized by the user, therefore, the user can interactively steer the projection. This makes it easy to organize and group large data sets. However, it is not always possible to select or group samples visually, in a reliable manner, mainly when handling unlabeled data. For these cases, a new clustering method based on multidimensional projection was proposed, which operates in the visual space, ensuring that clusters are not fragmented during the visualization. Moreover, it is driven by a deterministic sampling mechanism, able to identify instances that are good representatives for the whole data set. The proposed method is versatile and robust when dealing with unbalanced data sets. For the second problem: similarity search in multidimensional data, we build a family of class-specific metrics to project data. Such metrics were tailored to minimize the dissimilarity measure among objects from the same class and, simultaneously to maximize the dissimilarity among objects in distinct classes. The class-specific metrics are assessed in the context of content-based image retrieval. With the aim of increasing the precision of the class-specific metrics, another technique was developed. This one, uses the fuzzy set theory to estimate a degree of uncertainty, which is embedded in the metric, increasing its precision. The results confirm the effectiveness of the developed techniques, which represent significant contributions for clustering and similarity search in multidimensional data.

Systems are becoming more complicated, complex, and interrelated. Designers have recognized the need to develop systems from a holistic perspective and design them as Systems-of-Systems (SoS). The design of the SoS, especially in the conceptual design phase, is generally characterized by significant uncertainty. As a result, it is possible for all three types of uncertainty (aleatory, epistemic, and error) and the associated factors of uncertainty (randomness, sampling, confusion, conflict, inaccuracy, ambiguity, vagueness, coarseness, and simplification) to affect the design process. While there are a number of existing SoS design methods, several gaps have been identified: the ability to modeling all of the factors of uncertainty at varying levels of knowledge; the ability to consider both the pernicious and propitious aspects of uncertainty; and, the ability to determine the value of reducing the uncertainty in the design process. While there are numerous uncertainty modeling theories, no one theory can effectively model every kind of uncertainty. This research presents a Hybrid Uncertainty Modeling Method (HUMM) that integrates techniques from the following theories: Probability Theory, Evidence Theory, Fuzzy Set Theory, and Info-Gap theory. The HUMM is capable of modeling all of the different factors of uncertainty and can model the uncertainty for multiple levels of knowledge. In the design process, there are both pernicious and propitious characteristics associated with the uncertainty. Existing design methods typically focus on developing robust designs that are insensitive to the associated uncertainty. These methods do not capitalize on the possibility of maximizing the potential benefit associated with the uncertainty. This research demonstrates how these deficiencies can be overcome by identifying the most robust and opportunistic design. In a design process it is possible that the most robust and opportunistic design will not be selected from the set of potential design alternatives due to the related uncertainty. This research presents a process called the Value of Reducing Uncertainty Method (VRUM) that can determine the value associated with reducing the uncertainty in the design problem before a final decision is made by utilizing two concepts: the Expected Value of Reducing Uncertainty (EVRU) and the Expected Cost to Reducing Uncertainty (ECRU).

<div><div><div><p>Face redaction is needed by law enforcement and mass media outlets to guarantee privacy. In this thesis, a performance analysis of several face redaction/obscuration methods, such as blurring and pixelation is presented. The analysis is based on various threat models and obscuration attackers to achieve a comprehensive evaluation. We show that the traditional blurring and pixelation methods cannot guarantee privacy. To provide a more secured privacy protection, we propose two novel obscuration methods that are based on the generative adversarial networks. The proposed methods not only remove the identifiable information, but also preserve the non-identifiable facial information (as known as the utility information), such as expression, age, skin tone and gender.</p><p>We also propose methods for change detection in satellite imagery. In this thesis, we consider two types of building changes: 2D appearance change and 3D height change. We first present a model with an attention mechanism to detect the building appearance changes that are caused by natural disasters. Furthermore, to detect the changes of building height, we present a height estimation model that is based on building shadows and solar angles without relying on height annotation. Both change detection methods require good building segmentation performance, which might be hard to achieve for the low-quality images, such as off-nadir images. To solve this issue, we use uncertainty modeling and satellite imagery metadata to achieve accurate building segmentation for the noisy images that are taken from large off-nadir angles.</p></div></div></div>

Yes / This article proposes a novel technique for operation of distribution networks with considering active network management (ANM) schemes and demand response (DR) within a joint active and reactive distribution market environment. The objective of the proposed model is to maximize social welfare using market-based joint active and reactive optimal power flow. First, the intermittent behavior of renewable sources (solar irradiance, wind speed) and load demands is modeled through scenario-tree technique. Then, a network frame is recast using mixed-integer linear programming, which is solvable using efficient off-the-shelf branch-and cut solvers. Additionaly, this article explores the impact of wind and solar power penetration on the active and reactive distribution locational prices within the distribution market environment with integration of ANM schemes and DR. A realistic case study (16-bus UK generic medium voltage distribution system) is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. / This work was supported in part by the Ministry of Higher Education Scientific Research in Iraq and in part by British Academy under Grant GCRFNGR3\1541.

Land use changes have become a major contributor to the anthropogenic global change. The ongoing dispersion and concentration of the human species, being at their orders unprecedented, have indisputably altered Earth’s surface and atmosphere. The effects are so salient and irreversible that a new geological epoch, following the interglacial Holocene, has been announced: the Anthropocene. While its onset is by some scholars dated back to the Neolithic revolution, it is commonly referred to the late 18th century. The rapid development since the industrial revolution and its implications gave rise to an increasing awareness of the extensive anthropogenic land change and led to an urgent need for sustainable strategies for land use and land management. By preserving of landscape and settlement patterns at discrete points in time, archival geospatial data sources such as remote sensing imagery and historical geotopographic maps, in particular, could give evidence of the dynamic land use change during this crucial period. In this context, this thesis set out to explore the potentials of retrospective geoinformation for monitoring, communicating, modeling and eventually understanding the complex and gradually evolving processes of land cover and land use change. Currently, large amounts of geospatial data sources such as archival maps are being worldwide made online accessible by libraries and national mapping agencies. Despite their abundance and relevance, the usage of historical land use and land cover information in research is still often hindered by the laborious visual interpretation, limiting the temporal and spatial coverage of studies. Thus, the core of the thesis is dedicated to the computational acquisition of geoinformation from archival map sources by means of digital image analysis. Based on a comprehensive review of literature as well as the data and proposed algorithms, two major challenges for long-term retrospective information acquisition and change detection were identified: first, the diversity of geographical entity representations over space and time, and second, the uncertainty inherent to both the data source itself and its utilization for land change detection. To address the former challenge, image segmentation is considered a global non-linear optimization problem. The segmentation methods and parameters are adjusted using a metaheuristic, evolutionary approach. For preserving adaptability in high level image analysis, a hybrid model- and data-driven strategy, combining a knowledge-based and a neural net classifier, is recommended. To address the second challenge, a probabilistic object- and field-based change detection approach for modeling the positional, thematic, and temporal uncertainty adherent to both data and processing, is developed. Experimental results indicate the suitability of the methodology in support of land change monitoring. In conclusion, potentials of application and directions for further research are given.

Foreign exchange market is the largest financial market in the world and thus prediction of foreign exchange rate values is of interest to millions of people. In this research, I evaluated the performance of Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Moving Average (MA) on the USD/CAD and USD/AUD exchange pairs for 1-day, 1-week and 2-weeks predictions. For LSTM and GRU, twelve macroeconomic indicators along with past exchange rate values were used as features using data from January 2001 to December 2019. Predictions from each model were then integrated with uncertainty modeling to find out the chance of a model’s prediction being greater than or less than a user-defined target value using the error distribution from the test dataset, Monte-Carlo simulation trials and ChancCalc excel add-in. Results showed that ARIMA performs slightly better than LSTM and GRU for 1-day predictions for both USD/CAD and USD/AUD exchange pairs. However, when the period is increased to 1-week and 2-weeks, LSTM and GRU outperform both ARIMA and moving average for both USD/CAD and USD/AUD exchange pair.

Land use changes have become a major contributor to the anthropogenic global change. The ongoing dispersion and concentration of the human species, being at their orders unprecedented, have indisputably altered Earth’s surface and atmosphere. The effects are so salient and irreversible that a new geological epoch, following the interglacial Holocene, has been announced: the Anthropocene. While its onset is by some scholars dated back to the Neolithic revolution, it is commonly referred to the late 18th century. The rapid development since the industrial revolution and its implications gave rise to an increasing awareness of the extensive anthropogenic land change and led to an urgent need for sustainable strategies for land use and land management. By preserving of landscape and settlement patterns at discrete points in time, archival geospatial data sources such as remote sensing imagery and historical geotopographic maps, in particular, could give evidence of the dynamic land use change during this crucial period. In this context, this thesis set out to explore the potentials of retrospective geoinformation for monitoring, communicating, modeling and eventually understanding the complex and gradually evolving processes of land cover and land use change. Currently, large amounts of geospatial data sources such as archival maps are being worldwide made online accessible by libraries and national mapping agencies. Despite their abundance and relevance, the usage of historical land use and land cover information in research is still often hindered by the laborious visual interpretation, limiting the temporal and spatial coverage of studies. Thus, the core of the thesis is dedicated to the computational acquisition of geoinformation from archival map sources by means of digital image analysis. Based on a comprehensive review of literature as well as the data and proposed algorithms, two major challenges for long-term retrospective information acquisition and change detection were identified: first, the diversity of geographical entity representations over space and time, and second, the uncertainty inherent to both the data source itself and its utilization for land change detection. To address the former challenge, image segmentation is considered a global non-linear optimization problem. The segmentation methods and parameters are adjusted using a metaheuristic, evolutionary approach. For preserving adaptability in high level image analysis, a hybrid model- and data-driven strategy, combining a knowledge-based and a neural net classifier, is recommended. To address the second challenge, a probabilistic object- and field-based change detection approach for modeling the positional, thematic, and temporal uncertainty adherent to both data and processing, is developed. Experimental results indicate the suitability of the methodology in support of land change monitoring. In conclusion, potentials of application and directions for further research are given.

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