Designers are challenged to manage customer, technology, and socio-economic uncertainty causing dynamic, unquenchable demands on limited resources. In this context, increased concept flexibility, referring to a designer s ability to generate concepts, is crucial. Concept flexibility can be significantly increased through the integrated design of product and material concepts. Hence, the challenge is to leverage knowledge of material structure-property relations that significantly affect system concepts for function-based, systematic design of product and materials concepts in an integrated fashion. However, having selected an integrated product and material system concept, managing complexity in embodiment design-processes is important. Facing a complex network of decisions and evolving analysis models a designer needs the flexibility to systematically generate and evaluate embodiment design-process alternatives. In order to address these challenges and respond to the primary research question of how to increase a designer s concept and design-process flexibility to enhance product creation in the conceptual and early embodiment design phases, the primary hypothesis in this dissertation is embodied as a systematic approach for integrated product, materials and design-process design. The systematic approach consists of two components i) a function-based, systematic approach to the integrated design of product and material concepts from a systems perspective, and ii) a systematic strategy to design-process generation and selection based on a decision-centric perspective and a value-of-information-based Process Performance Indicator. The systematic approach is validated using the validation-square approach that consists of theoretical and empirical validation. Empirical validation of the framework is carried out using various examples including: i) design of a reactive material containment system, and ii) design of an optoelectronic communication system.

Många infrastrukturprojekt involverar byggnation i berg där det alltid finns osäkerheter att hantera, dessa kan minskas genom att utföra fler undersökningar. Eftersom förundersökningar i berg är relativt dyra gäller det att hitta en balans där fältprogrammet är ekonomiskt försvarbart. Ett området som studerats det senaste åren är att utreda kostnadsnyttan som förundersökningarna tillför. Metoden som har utvecklats kallas datavärdesanalys och används för att kunna bedöma kostnadsnyttan av att utföra ytterligare förundersökningar innan de är utförda. Syfte med studien är att utvärdera kostnadsnyttan av ytterligare förundersökningar för en injekterings- och bergförstärkningsdesign i ett riktigt bergbyggnadsprojekt. Detta kommer att göras med en utvecklad statistisk metod av datavärdesanalysen.  Förväntade resultat från studien var: Undersöka hur insamlad data från tidigare förundersökningar i projektet kan användas för att bedöma sannolikheterna i datavärdesanalysen. Utveckla datavärdesanalysen för att vara tillämpbar i ett bergbyggnadsprojekt. Testa metoden i ett byggprojekt med riktig data och kostnader. Utvärdera om den framtagna metoden är tillämpbar i ett bergbyggnadsprojekt. I studien upprättades först två olika typdesigner för injekteringen och bergförstärkningen, baserat på en begränsad mängd data som fanns tillgänglig för en utvald sektion (fall 1). Mängden data som var tillgänglig i fall 1 är liknande som i en förstudie. Sedan upprättades två nya typdesigner för vardera område där kompletterande information från högkvalitativ data från kärnborrhål, hammarborrhål och vattenförlustmätning adderades (fall 2). Sannolikheterna i datavärdesanalysen bedömdes genom att använda en statistik metod. Den statistiska metoden baserades på en monte carlo simulering där stupningen på brottet antogs variera för bergförstärkningen och konduktiviteten antogs variera för injekteringen.  Studien påvisade goda resultat för att datavärdesanalyser skulle kunna implementeras i projekt som ett beslutsunderlag. Problematiken som kan uppstå i projekt där man har olika åsikter om hur mycket förundersökningar som behövs skulle kunna elimineras genom att använda datavärdesanalyser på den tillgängliga informationen samt nyttan av mer information. Detta är viktigt ur ett samhällsekonomiskt perspektiv. Det är dock viktigt att personen som använder verktyget förstår hur metoden är uppbyggd och dess antaganden. Gör man inte det finns det stor risk att beslut fattas på grund av felaktigheter som kan finnas i både indata och misstolkad utdata. Vidare rekommenderas att metoden utvecklas innan den används i ett riktigt projekt. Exempel på detta kan vara att göra mindre antaganden. Det kan också vara att försöka koppla datavärdesanalysen till var man har utfört undersökningen på sträckan man studerar. Man skulle även kunna inkludera fler parametrar i sin monte carlo simulering. Slutligen kan man, för att göra metoden mer användarvänlig, skapa en bättre plattform som den kan användas på. / Many infrastructure projects involve construction in rock, where there are a lot of uncertainties to deal with. These uncertainties can be reduced by performing preliminary investigations. Since preliminary investigations are expensive, it is necessary to find a balance where the field program is financially justifiable. In recent years cost-benefit analysis has been studied to investigate the benefits that preliminary investigations add. The method that has been developed is called value of information analysis and it assesses the cost-benefit of doing more investigations before they are performed.  The purpose of this report is to evaluate the benefits of additional preliminary investigations in a real project that could improve the grouting and rock support designs. The studied method is VOIA (Value of Information Analysis) based on statistical probabilities. The expected result of the study was: Investigate how collected data from preliminary investigations can be used to determine the probabilities used in the VOIA concept based on statistics. Develop a VOIA concept that is based on statistics and can be applied in a real project. Test the concept in a real project with real data and costs. Evaluate however the statistical approach was suitable to be applied in a real project. First part of the study consists of establishing two basic designs for grouting and rock support, that is based on a limited amount of information for a certain section of the project (case 1). The data available in case 1 is similar to a desk study. For the second part of the study the previous designs were updated and adjusted according to the additional information, from high quality investigations such as core drilling and water pressure test (case 2). The probabilities in the value of information analysis were evaluated using a statistical approach. The method was based on a monte carlo simulation where the dip of the plane was assumed to vary for the reinforcement design. For the grouting design the conductivity was assumed to vary.   Conclusions from this report proves that a statistical approach for the VOIA concept has great possibilities of being applied in projects as a tool before making decisions regarding preliminary investigations. The problem that often occur in projects today concerning different opinions about the amount of investigations needed, could be eliminated if a well constructed statistical model can be used that has the possibility of adjusting to the amount of available data. This would be beneficial from a socioeconomic perspective. However it's important that the user of this approach understand the purpose of every assumption and understands how to interpret the output data. Otherwise, decisions can be based on errors made by assumptions or bad input data.   Furthermore, recommendations is presented in this report regarding some areas that need to be developed before it is suitable to apply the method in a real project. One is to construct the VOIA concept based on fewer assumptions. Another is to connect the VOIA method to the geographical point of where the investigations have been made. There is also a possibility to include more parameters in the monte carlo simulation. Finally, to construct a more applicable tool in a project, a user friendly platform to conduct the analysis from is a great area to develop.

This thesis presents a methodology to incorporate reservoir uncertainties and estimate the loss in project value when facility planning decisions are based on erroneous estimates of input variables. We propose a tank model along with integrated asset development model to simulate the concept selection process. The model endogenizes drilling decisions and includes an option to expand. Key decision variables included in the model are number of pre-drill wells, initial facility capacity and number of well slots. Comparison is made between project value derived under erroneous estimates for reserve size and under an alternate hypothesis. The results suggest loss in project value of up to 40% when reservoir estimates are erroneous. Moreover, both optimistic and pessimistic reserve estimates results in a loss in project value. However, loss in project value is bigger when reserve size is underestimated than when it is overestimated. / text

Abstract Based on the sequential auction model of Kyle (1985) and embedded the formulation of positive feedback traders in De Long et al. (1990), our model formulates a recursive market game of insiders, noise traders, and market makers. In particular, the submitted demands of positive feedback inertial traders are influenced by previous own trading quantities. I prove the existence and uniqueness of a recursive linear equilibrium with positive feedback inertial trades. Further, the equilibrium calibrates that the strategies of insider and market makers are also influenced by positive feedback trades. Finally, we conduct a simulation analysis to get a price-volume pattern with some empirical interesting implications. Finally, this thesis takes trading strategies to trade the individual stock in TSEC. Although the market mechanism of TSEC has no market makers, it is still expected that these trading strategies are useful for traders which implies the information is filtrated by these trading strategies.

Clinical laboratory test results are integral to patient management. Important aspects of laboratory tests’ contributions are the use of the test information and the role they have in facilitating efficient and effective use of healthcare resources. Methods of measuring those contributions were examined using quantitative HCV RNA test results (HCV VL) in therapeutic management decisions as a model. Test precision is important in those decisions; therefore, the clinical use was evaluated by studying the impact that knowledge of inherent assay imprecision had on clinicians’ decisions. A survey describing a simulated patient at a decision point for HCV triple-combination therapy management was sent to 1491 hepatology clinicians. Participants saw HCV RNA results at five different levels and were asked to choose to: continue therapy, discontinue therapy, or repeat the test. Test results were presented both with and without the 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Three of the VLs had CIs that overlapped the therapeutic decision level. Participants saw both sets of results in random order. Demographics and practice preferences were also surveyed. One-hundred-thirty-eight responses were received. Adherence to clinical guidelines was demonstrated in self-reported behaviors and in most decisions. However, participants chose to repeat the test up to 37% of the time. The impact of the knowledge of assay imprecision did not have a statistically significant effect on clinicians’ decisions. To determine economic value, an analytic decision-tree model was developed. Transition probabilities, costs, and Quality of Life values were derived from published literature. Survey respondents’ decisions were used as model inputs. Across all HCV VL levels, the calculated test value was approximately $2600, with up to $17,000 in treatment-related cost savings per patient at higher HCV VLs. The test value prevailed regardless of the presence or absence of CIs, and despite repeat testing. The calculated value in cost savings/patient was up to 100 times the investment for HCV VL testing. Laboratory tests are investments in efficient uses of healthcare resources. Proper interpretation and use of their information is integral to that value. This type of analysis can inform institutional decisions and higher level policy discussions.

This dissertation presents a basic information-driven sensor management problem, referred to as treasure hunt, that is relevant to mobile-sensor applications such as mine hunting, monitoring, and surveillance. The objective is to classify/infer one or multiple fixed targets or treasures located in an obstacle-populated workspace by planning the path and a sequence of measurements of a robotic sensor installed on a mobile platform associated with the treasures distributed in the sensor workspace. The workspace is represented by a connectivity graph, where each node represents a possible sensor deployment, and the arcs represent possible sensor movements. A methodology is developed for planning the sensing strategy of a robotic sensor deployed. The sensing strategy includes the robotic sensor's path, because it determines which targets are measurable given a bounded field of view. Existing path planning techniques are not directly applicable to robots whose primary objective is to gather sensor measurements. Thus, in this dissertation, a novel approximate cell-decomposition approach is developed in which obstacles, targets, the sensor's platform and field of view are represented as closed and bounded subsets of an Euclidean workspace. The approach constructs a connectivity graph with observation cells that is pruned and transformed into a decision tree, from which an optimal sensing strategy can be computed. It is shown that an additive incremental-entropy function can be used to efficiently compute the expected information value of the measurement sequence over time. The methodology is applied to a robotic landmine classification problem and the board game of CLUE$^{\circledR}$. In the landmine detection application, the optimal strategy of a robotic ground-penetrating radar is computed based on prior remote measurements and environmental information. Extensive numerical experiments show that this methodology outperforms shortest-path, complete-coverage, random, and grid search strategies, and is applicable to non-overpass capable platforms that must avoid targets as well as obstacles. The board game of CLUE$^{\circledR}$ is shown to be an excellent benchmark example of treasure hunt problem. The test results show that a player implementing the strategies developed in this dissertation outperforms players implementing Bayesian networks only, Q-learning, or constraint satisfaction, as well as human players. / Dissertation

This dissertation focuses on topics related to the value of real-time information and/or to supply uncertainties due to uncertain lead-times and yields in supply chains. The first two of these topics address issues associated with freight transportation, while the remaining two topics are concerned with inventory replenishment. We first assess the value of dynamic tour determination for the traveling salesman problem (TSP). Given a network with traffic dynamics that can be modeled as a Markov chain, we present a policy determination procedure that optimally builds a tour dynamically. We then explore the potential for expected total travel cost reduction due to dynamic tour determination, relative to two a priori tour determination procedures. Second, we consider the situation where the decision to continue or abort transporting perishable freight from an origin to a destination can be made at intermediate locations, based on real-time freight status monitoring. We model the problem as a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) and develop an efficient procedure for determining an optimal policy. We determine structural characteristics of an optimal policy and upper and lower bounds on the optimal reward function. Third, we analyze a periodic review inventory control problem with lost sales and random yields and present conditions that guarantee the existence of an optimal policy having a so-called staircase structure. We make use of this structure to accelerate both value iteration and policy evaluation. Lastly, we examine a model of inventory replenishment where both lead time and supply qualities are uncertain. We model this problem as an MDP and show that the weighted sum of inventory in transit and inventory at the destination is a sufficient statistic, assuming that random shrinkage can occur from the origin to the supply system or destination, shrinkage is deterministic within the supply system and from the supply system to the destination, and no shrinkage occurs once goods reach the destination.

WHAT WAS DONE? This study researches the success of several value investment strategies in the stock markets of the United Kingdom and Germany based on nine firm fundamentals that are extracted from listed firms annual financial statements. In this regard, we first examine alternative forecast combination methods in a novel way to utilise fully the financial information at hand. Second, we examine the drivers of investment returns, particularly the role of information uncertainty, for which a new direct measure is developed. Finally, we evaluate the performance of these financial health investment strategies in alternative institutional environments by focusing on the differences between the two markets regarding both their corporate culture and their legal environment. WHY WAS IT DONE? Similar to economics, the discipline of finance is a social science because its observations emanate from economic transactions between humans. Nevertheless, a significant part of the research in this area is undertaken by means that are almost exclusively applied to the natural sciences, such as mathematics or physics. Although the reasons seem manifold, an increased form of scientificity, in conjunction with greater credibility of the research process and results, is deemed to be of primary importance. However, the benchmark for evaluating these research outcomes differs from those used in the natural sciences. From the example of the efficient market hypothesis one can see that alternative research results that cast serious doubt upon efficiency per se are disregarded as aberrations, leading to the assumption that the hypothesis in its entirety is more or less valid. This study assumes that inefficiencies in the stock market do exist for prolonged periods of time and investors are actually able to benefit from them. HOW WAS IT DONE? Secondary financial statement data of listed companies in the United Kingdom and Germany were downloaded from Datastream for the period between 1992 and 2010. A quantitative analysis of the significance of the correlation between groups of firms with similar financial characteristics and their one-year-ahead stock returns was subsequently performed. Various combination methods for differential weighting of individual financial statement items were conducted. The aim was to increase the profitability of the investment strategy. WHAT WAS FOUND? In general, a classification of stocks according to certain internal criteria of financial health is capable of separating future winners from losers and at the same time confirms the results of a previous US study. More specifically, we first show that a wide range of combination methods generate profitable investment strategies whereby especially measures of profitability are the central indicator of a firm s future performance. Secondly, the more complex methods neither consistently nor substantively outperform the simpler methods. Thirdly, information uncertainty does not seem to be the prime driver of the profitability of an investment strategy. Lastly, we show that financial health investment strategies are profitable both in market-oriented, common law settings and in bank-oriented, code law settings.

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[pt] Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar um projeto de exploração e produção de petróleo típico do pré-sal brasileiro em processo de unitização que possui incertezas técnicas e de mercado e flexibilidade gerencial para adiar o investimento. Esse tipo de projeto, na maioria das empresas, é valorado através dos métodos tradicionais de análise econômica financeira. Já se sabe, no entanto, que quando se tem incertezas e flexibilidade gerencial, existem opções associadas, que tem o potencial de aumentar o valor dos ativos. Foi realizada uma aplicação numérica a um campo de petróleo hipotético através da metodologia de opções reais utilizando dados típicos da indústria. Foi avaliada a alternativa de adquirir informação de reservatório através da realização de um teste de longa duração (TLD), com intuito de reduzir as incertezas técnicas antes da unitização e elaboração do plano de desenvolvimento do campo. Considerando a opção de postergar o investimento no projeto para a realização do TLD, foi possível analisar também o impacto da incerteza de mercado que é, neste caso, o preço futuro do petróleo. Os resultados do estudo indicam que, para todas as partes envolvidas, é ótimo esperar e investir em informação antes de fechar o processo de unitização. Como contribuição, esta dissertação propõe a aplicação de um modelo de opções reais que analisa o valor da informação e o momento ótimo de investimento. Com isso foi possível determinar oVPL de um projeto de desenvolvimento da produção de um campo de petróleoque traz o maior retorno para todas as partes envolvidas. / [en] This paper analyzes a typical pre-salt oil exploration and production project under an unitization process that has technical and market uncertainties and managerial flexibility to defer the investment. This type of project in most companies is valued through traditional methods of economic and financial analysis. It is known, however, that when there are uncertainties and managerial flexibility, there are associated options that have the potential to increase the value of the project. A numerical application to a hypothetical oil field was made using industry-typical data under the real options approach. The alternative of acquiring reservoir information through an extended well test (EWT) was evaluated in order to reduce technical uncertainties before the unitization process and the draw up of the field development plan. Considering the option to defer the investment in order to do the EWT, it was also possible to analyze the impact of the market uncertainty, which in this case are the future oil prices. The results of the study indicate that, for all stakeholders, waiting and investing in information before finalizing the unitization process is optimal. As a contribution, this dissertation proposes the application of a real option model which analyzes the value of information and the optimal investment timing. With this, it was possible to determine the NPV of an oil field development project that provides the highest return to all stakeholders.