Crime and violence are regularly seen as being ripe for politicians to turn into campaign issues and win votes. This study argues, in contrast, that success on public security is not so automatic: human rights values constrain the use of security and the winning of votes on it. Even in Latin American countries, where voters' concerns about rampant crime and violence are among the highest in the world, considerations of human rights combine with low trust in security forces to restrict the viability of the issue in key ways. Examination of presidential campaigns in Colombia in 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2010 supports this claim. Success on security is a two-step process: invoking the issue and then gaining voter support on the topic. Usability depends on the absence of recent repression and the degree of organization of security threats. Then, winning votes on it depends on having a civilian background, a campaign that balances security with other issues, and messages of careful enforcement. These messages of careful enforcement promise targeted, deliberate use of security forces' enforcement activities in a way that pays attention to human rights, rather than promising unbridled enforcement, increased punishment, or programs of long-term prevention. This study therefore shows how candidates are forced to walk a fine line between promising to establish order and promising to protect basic rights and liberties. These findings are powerful, providing an understanding of public security in electoral campaigns that maintains a much closer fit with empirical reality than existing research. The results also provide a critique of the sociological school of vote choice and points to ways in which ownership of the issue of security may be leased away. Furthermore, because the results are driven by the spread of human rights values, the results demonstrate the importance of quick shifts in political culture as a factor that explains changes in political patterns. / text

Understanding how race shapes the lives of individuals and transforms institutions is central to social science. Yet, for many scholars, race is widely understood as a fixed and monolithic category that is resistant to manipulation. As a result, making causal claims about "immutable characteristics" such as race or ethnicity has been strongly discouraged by statisticians and experts of causal inference. In contrast to previous literature, I propose a different framework that, in some cases, reconciles race and causation. Using a lab experiment and observational data about the urban uprisings of the 1960s, I test whether racialized and politicized cues from a subordinate group (in this case, blacks) can change psychological, behavioral and attitudinal measures among a dominant group (in this case, whites). Looking at more than 750 violent protests that flared up in black neighborhoods across the United States, I examine whether increased exposure to signals of black unrest is associated with decreased support for the Democratic party. In the 1964, 1968, and 1972 presidential elections, I find a strong negative relationship between exposure to civil unrest and the county-level Democratic vote share. I find a similar negative relationship between exposure to violent protests and Democratic vote share in congressional elections between 1968 and 1972. Finally, I find that in counterfactual scenarios of fewer violent protests the Democratic presidential nominee, Hubert Humphrey, would have beaten the Republican nominee, Richard Nixon, in the 1968 election. In the lab experiment, I test how exposure to images of politicized and armed white and black men changes psychological, behavioral and attitudinal measures among subjects in the dominant (white) group. Methodologically, this study investigates the degree to which at least some aspects of race are better operationalized as variable, divisible, continuous and responsive to manipulation. Substantively, this experiment also attempts to assess the degree to which media representations of violence and politics might increase the salience of ethnic/racial identities, particularly in a dominant group. In the context of the 1960s urban uprisings, such a result might help explain why a significant subset of white voters switched away from the Democratic party, that had become identified with black interests, and towards candidates promising "law and order." / African and African American Studies

This is a collection of papers on three Southeast Asian countries, Cambodia, Lao PDR and Thailand. All four studies rely on household survey data for analyzing topics related to poverty and conflicts. Trust and Conflict in Southern ThailandThe insurgency in Thailand’s southern border provinces has caused thousands of casualties since 2004. This paper investigates the impact of mistrust of the government on the violent conflict. I analyze how failure to address local grievances has led to a breakdown of trust and created conditions for an insurgency. Empirical tests are carried out using a survey of individual trust in government institutions conducted at the beginning of violent conflict. It is shown that sub-districts where the population displayed lower levels of pre-conflict trust experienced higher levels of lethal violence during the conflict. Factors influencing trust in government institutions are analyzed using ordinal logistic analysis. Economic and ethno-linguistic factors are identified as the main determinants of trust towards the government. Political polarization in ThailandThe article traces recent political polarization to earlier institutional reforms opening up the political system to increased electoral competition. The increased influence of the rural majority led new political entrepreneurs to introduce welfare policies. The new polices were opposed by urban tax payers, setting off a process of policy driven polarization that drew on underlying cleavages in Thai society. Empirical tests based on voting patterns in the most recent general election using a seemingly unrelated regression model provide support for the hypothesis of policy driven political polarization. The analysis highlights the vulnerability to increased polarization after introduction of institutional reforms that alter the balance of power between different parts of the electorate. Ethnic Minority Poverty in Lao PDREthnic minorities have a significantly higher poverty incidence than the majority in Lao PDR. Based on survey data the determinants of minority poverty are analyzed, the sources of inequality decomposed, and the expected impact of polices to address minority poverty estimated. When economic factors are controlled for, ethnicity does not have any significant effect on poverty. Decomposition shows that unequal access to resources and demographic variables largely explain the majority-minority poverty gap. Rural Poverty in CambodiaCambodia has been growing rapidly over the past few years, but remains one of the poorest countries in East Asia. This paper analyzes rural poverty in Cambodia to identify the factors that explain its occurrence and persistence. The reduction of rural poverty in Cambodia requires (1) improvements in agricultural productivity and (2) the establishment of other income earning opportunities for the rural population. An econometric analysis of the Cambodian Socio-Economic Survey shows that the main causes of poverty differ between landowners and the landless, and between different regions.

A dissertação de mestrado analisa os artigos publicados a respeito do Comportamento Eleitoral no Brasil em periódicos científicos com impacto nacional. Para tal, discute os primeiros trabalhos publicados, datados do fim dos anos 50, até os dias atuais, em revistas nacionais de Qualis A1 e A2. O trabalho discute a evolução das teorias de explicação do voto na ciência política brasileira e tem como argumento principal que os estudos sobre o comportamento eleitoral foram cruciais para a construção da autonomia acadêmica da disciplina e a introdução e difusão do paradigma comportamentalista, ajudando a construir uma Ciência Política no Brasil que se preocupa com a análise empírica e a quantificação. Entretanto, as revistas que servem de plataforma para as publicações, os pesquisadores e seus vínculos institucionais mostram que há uma concentração dessa linha de pesquisa e da produção em instituições de pesquisa da região Sudeste. Também há uma concentração moderada no tipo de abordagem utilizada, pois predomina a explicação psicológica e, em segundo lugar, estudos de geografia eleitoral. Ao analisarmos o desenvolvimento teórico dos estudos publicados no formato artigo em revista, defendemos que a próxima etapa da construção da autonomia acadêmica da disciplina, pelo menos no que se refere à subárea de estudos de comportamento eleitoral, é a descentralização dos meios de produção científica – revistas, editoras, etc. – e a própria produção científica, assim como o aumento do pluralismo teórico e metodológico no estudo desse tema. / The master's thesis analyzes the articles published about the Voting Behavior in Brazil in scientific journals with national impact. As such, it discusses the first published works, dating from the late 50s until the present day, in national journals Qualis A1 and A2. The paper discusses the evolution of theories of vote explanation in Brazilian political science and its main argument is that the studies on voting behavior were crucial to the construction of the academic autonomy of discipline and the introduction and dissemination of the behaviorist paradigm, helping to build a political science in Brazil that cares about the empirical analysis and quantification. However, the magazines that serve as a platform for publications, researchers and their institutional links show that there is a concentration of such research and the production line at research institutions in the Southeast. There is also a moderate concentration in the type of approach used, as predominates the psychological explanation and, secondly, electoral geography studies. By analyzing the theoretical development of the studies published in article magazine format, it is argued that the next stage of construction of the academic autonomy of the subject, at least in regard to the subfield of electoral behavior studies is the decentralization of scientific production means - magazines, publishing houses, etc. - And the scientific production itself, as well as the increase of the theoretical and methodological pluralism in the study of this subject.

This study investigates whether there is a link between the successful implementation of European cohesion policy and the voters' attitudes towards the EU. Using the French presidential elections in 2017 as a case study, we do not solely consider regional funds expenditures but also its induced effects in a region as further potential determinant of pro-European or eurosceptic voting behavior. In order to measure the effectiveness of EU structural funds and Cohesion Fund assignment, firm-level employment effects in French NUTS-2 regions stemming from project allocation during the multi-annual financial framework 2007-2013 are estimated. The obtained average treatment effects are, in a next step, used together with other regional characteristics to capture the citizens' perceived exposure to the EU in an empirical voting model for the French presidential election in 2017. The estimation results reveal a significant negative relationship between the effectiveness of EU funds allocation and the vote share of the eurosceptic candidate Marine Le Pen. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / Apresentando como principal expoente a Igreja Universal do Reino de Deus, o segmento evangélico neopentecostal tem obtido sucesso em sua inserção político eleitoral, através da utilização de estratégias eleitorais características, como o cadastramento de fiéis, a adoção de campanhas oficiais distribuídas por região de acordo com o potencial do eleitorado e o uso da mídia própria e dos púlpitos para o marketing político. Inserida nos estudos de comportamento eleitoral, esta dissertação fará uma análise sobre os eleitores dos autodenominados políticos de Deus, com a utilização de surveys, dados eleitorais e pesquisa de campo. Através da aplicação da Teoria da Escolha Racional, será investigada a hipótese de que os eleitores neopentecostais não se distanciam da concepção de Homo politicus da teoria downsiana, agindo racionalmente quando atribuem seu voto a um irmão de fé. / Featuring the Universal Church as the most important exponent, the neopentecostal gospel segment has been successful in its electoral political insertion by using specific electoral strategies, such as the registration of followers, the adoption of official campaigns distributed by regions according to the electorate potential and the media and the pulpits for political marketing. As part of the studies on voting behavior, this dissertation will analyze the voters of the self-appointed "politicians of God", by using surveys, electoral data and field research. Through the application of the Rational Choice Theory, it will be investigated the hypothesis that neopentecostal voters do not distance themselves from the conception of Homo politicus of the Downs` theory, acting rationally when they give their vote to a "brother in faith".

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / Apresentando como principal expoente a Igreja Universal do Reino de Deus, o segmento evangélico neopentecostal tem obtido sucesso em sua inserção político eleitoral, através da utilização de estratégias eleitorais características, como o cadastramento de fiéis, a adoção de campanhas oficiais distribuídas por região de acordo com o potencial do eleitorado e o uso da mídia própria e dos púlpitos para o marketing político. Inserida nos estudos de comportamento eleitoral, esta dissertação fará uma análise sobre os eleitores dos autodenominados políticos de Deus, com a utilização de surveys, dados eleitorais e pesquisa de campo. Através da aplicação da Teoria da Escolha Racional, será investigada a hipótese de que os eleitores neopentecostais não se distanciam da concepção de Homo politicus da teoria downsiana, agindo racionalmente quando atribuem seu voto a um irmão de fé. / Featuring the Universal Church as the most important exponent, the neopentecostal gospel segment has been successful in its electoral political insertion by using specific electoral strategies, such as the registration of followers, the adoption of official campaigns distributed by regions according to the electorate potential and the media and the pulpits for political marketing. As part of the studies on voting behavior, this dissertation will analyze the voters of the self-appointed "politicians of God", by using surveys, electoral data and field research. Through the application of the Rational Choice Theory, it will be investigated the hypothesis that neopentecostal voters do not distance themselves from the conception of Homo politicus of the Downs` theory, acting rationally when they give their vote to a "brother in faith".

A dissertação de mestrado analisa os artigos publicados a respeito do Comportamento Eleitoral no Brasil em periódicos científicos com impacto nacional. Para tal, discute os primeiros trabalhos publicados, datados do fim dos anos 50, até os dias atuais, em revistas nacionais de Qualis A1 e A2. O trabalho discute a evolução das teorias de explicação do voto na ciência política brasileira e tem como argumento principal que os estudos sobre o comportamento eleitoral foram cruciais para a construção da autonomia acadêmica da disciplina e a introdução e difusão do paradigma comportamentalista, ajudando a construir uma Ciência Política no Brasil que se preocupa com a análise empírica e a quantificação. Entretanto, as revistas que servem de plataforma para as publicações, os pesquisadores e seus vínculos institucionais mostram que há uma concentração dessa linha de pesquisa e da produção em instituições de pesquisa da região Sudeste. Também há uma concentração moderada no tipo de abordagem utilizada, pois predomina a explicação psicológica e, em segundo lugar, estudos de geografia eleitoral. Ao analisarmos o desenvolvimento teórico dos estudos publicados no formato artigo em revista, defendemos que a próxima etapa da construção da autonomia acadêmica da disciplina, pelo menos no que se refere à subárea de estudos de comportamento eleitoral, é a descentralização dos meios de produção científica – revistas, editoras, etc. – e a própria produção científica, assim como o aumento do pluralismo teórico e metodológico no estudo desse tema. / The master's thesis analyzes the articles published about the Voting Behavior in Brazil in scientific journals with national impact. As such, it discusses the first published works, dating from the late 50s until the present day, in national journals Qualis A1 and A2. The paper discusses the evolution of theories of vote explanation in Brazilian political science and its main argument is that the studies on voting behavior were crucial to the construction of the academic autonomy of discipline and the introduction and dissemination of the behaviorist paradigm, helping to build a political science in Brazil that cares about the empirical analysis and quantification. However, the magazines that serve as a platform for publications, researchers and their institutional links show that there is a concentration of such research and the production line at research institutions in the Southeast. There is also a moderate concentration in the type of approach used, as predominates the psychological explanation and, secondly, electoral geography studies. By analyzing the theoretical development of the studies published in article magazine format, it is argued that the next stage of construction of the academic autonomy of the subject, at least in regard to the subfield of electoral behavior studies is the decentralization of scientific production means - magazines, publishing houses, etc. - And the scientific production itself, as well as the increase of the theoretical and methodological pluralism in the study of this subject.

This thesis explores the impact of Latinidad in Latino political participation, especially in regard to voting behavior. Although Latinos often have been portrayed as a decisive electoral group, the reality is they have not fulfilled the expectations imposed upon them. Therefore, I argue Latinos with different levels of group consciousness will engage differently in politics, which affects the voting statistics of the ethnicity in Censuses, reports and surveys. The use of pan-ethnic terms and the constant stereotypes of Latinos all being “the same,” has caused separation rather than cohesiveness within the minority group, which has resulted in low political engagement. I propose that those Latino immigrants and their descendants who do not have a strong attachment to the pan-ethnicity will behave differently than those who identify themselves in pan-ethnic terms. Consequently, I have come to wonder how Latinidad impacts those who are not part of the main Latino subgroups —Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, and Cubans— and have been denominated the “other Latinos” when engaging in politics? South Americans, Central Americans, and Caribbean immigrants have been smashed into a group where they do not occupy a significant place. I suggest that differences in country of origin will have an impact on how Latin American immigrants will participate in American politics. To test my hypothesis, I have made a secondary analysis of existent literature. This analysis includes crosstabulations of data obtained from the 2012 National Survey of Latinos, conducted by the Pew Research Center. Through the analysis of the data and the existent literature, I have concluded that the pan-ethnic terms are not strongly entrenched in Latino’s regular use of identity. Respondents mostly said to not have a preference for either term, still their vote intention was high. Differences are noticeable among Latinos/Hispanics that have different ancestries, however, these are sometimes stabilized by citizenship. The data proved that the identity categories used for surveys directed at Latinos/Hispanics are not specific enough, given that a considerable percentage of participants were confused about how to classify themselves, which altered the results. This current study will contribute to the work of Latino studies, that for more than 50 years have tried to get to know those who make up the Latino community, by approaching identity and Latino politics from a different perspective. A perspective where those called Latinos/Hispanics can identify themselves instead of being randomly categorized.

This thesis seeks to challenge the dominant modes of conceiving the empirical link between citizens’ negative perceptions of immigrants and electoral support for Western European radical right parties, and in doing so, to offer a deeper understanding of the dynamics of radical right voting behavior based on an analysis of radical right parties’ online activities. Despite radical right parties' great popularity and important presence online, little scholarly attention has been paid to their activities in an online space. Accordingly, most empirical research on radical right voting behavior has been conducted in an offline context, ignoring the potential role the Internet plays in connecting radical right parties and voters. Building on Norris’s demand-supply framework, I consider the largely ignored factor, citizens' online activities, in my quantitative model and, ultimately, develop formal links between citizens’ anti-immigrant attitudes and electoral support for radical right parties conditional on their level of Internet usage. Thereby, I aim to provide an answer to the following research question: Does citizens’ Internet usage moderate the relationship between anti-immigrant attitudes and radical right voting? Using data from the 9th wave of the European Social Survey (ESS), I test whether voters' high level of Internet consumption strengthens the positive relationship between anti-immigrant attitudes and electoral support for radical right parties in eight Western European countries. The results show that my expectations are strongly supported at the cross-national level and partially confirmed at the national level by Belgium, Germany, and Italy. My findings hold promise for future work in designing more elaborate and practical voting models.