O déficit hídrico é uma das principais causas de perdas de produtividade agrícola. No Brasil, algumas regiões sofreram reduções elevadas na produção de milho (Zea mays L.), provocadas por estiagens, por exemplo, nas safras de 1995/1996, 1996/1997, 1998/1999, 1999/2000, 2004/2005. Para contornar ou minimizar situações de limitação hídrica é importante o planejamento da época de cultivo para melhor aproveitamento das condições climáticas locais e eficiência do manejo da lavoura. O presente trabalho objetivou subsidiar o planejamento de plantio do milho na região de Piracicaba, São Paulo, estimando a probabilidade de quebra de produtividade de cultivares de ciclo médio em decorrência do déficit hídrico, em função de datas de semeadura simuladas para o primeiro dia de cada decêndio entre setembro e fevereiro. Para isso, foi utilizado o modelo de balanço hídrico de Thornthwaite e Mather (1955) modificado por Barbieri et al. (2003), pelo qual é possível considerar a variação da capacidade de água disponível no solo ao longo do ciclo, acompanhando o crescimento do sistema radicular e representando de forma mais aproximada a situação real de armazenamento de água no solo do que o uso de um só valor de CAD ao longo do ciclo da cultura. Foram calculadas deficiências hídricas decendiais, obtidas pelo balanço hídrico sequencial de cultura em série de dados climatológicos de 1975 a 2008 e estimados os déficits de produtividade potencial para cada simulação de plantio, usando o coeficiente de sensibilidade da cultura ao déficit (Ky). Para cada ano, foram estimados os déficits relativos de produtividade e verificado o ajuste dos dados estimados a duas funções de probabilidade, a beta e a gama completa, tendo a segunda apresentado melhor desempenho, sendo escolhida para representar a frequencia de ocorrências dos valores nas séries. Para os plantios em cada primeiro dia dos decêndios de outubro e novembro, a probabilidade gama (Pgama) de ocorrerem déficit relativo de produtividade de até 10% é maior que 50%, isto é, a cada dois anos de plantio, ao menos um tem quebra de produtividade menor que 10%. Nesse período, destacam-se o primeiro e terceiro decêndios de outubro, com Pgama = 67% e Pgama = 63%, respectivamente, de quebra relativa inferior a 10%. Nos meses de setembro, dezembro e janeiro, a probabilidade de déficits relativos de produtividade de até 20% é maior que 50%, indicando maior efeito da ocorrência do déficit hídrico nesses meses. No mês de fevereiro, a probabilidade de perdas maiores que 1/5 da produção é superior a 75%, sendo recomendável irrigação para aumentar a produtividade das semeaduras nesse mês, principalmente no período crítico. Perdas acima de 50% são difíceis de ocorrer, sendo a probabilidade máxima igual a 23,5% no terceiro decêndio de fevereiro. / Water deficit is one of the mainly reasons of crop yield decrease in agriculture. In Brazil, drought caused serious damages in some regions to corn (Zea mays L.) production in the crops of 1995/1996, 1996/1997, 1998/1999, 1999/2000, 2004/2005. Planning the sowing dates plays an essential role to mitigate the effect of limited water conditions and in the more effective use of local weather on farm management. The current work aimed to estimate probabilities of relative yield decrease in corn crop caused by soil water deficits in function of the sowing dates, by simulating plantings in ten-day basis from September to February, in order to support the decision-making process and the planning of corn cropping in Piracicaba region, São Paulo State, Brazil. Soil water deficit was estimated by using the water balance model of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) adapted by Barbieri et al. (2003) for take into account the variation of available water capacity in the soil during the crop cycle, following the root system growth, thus rendering it a more representative model of soil water balance. For each year of data series on climate conditions from 1975 to 2008, the relative deficits of potential yield were calculated using the ten-day values of water deficit obtained from the serial water balance model, for each simulated sowing date from September 1st to February 21st. Then, the yield response factor to water deficit (Ky) was applied to relate the potential yield deficit to evapotranspiration deficit, observed in 18 sowing dates in 33 years of the study. Two probability density functions were tested, the beta and the complete gamma; the latter showed best fit to the observed frequency data and was chosen to estimate the frequency of yield occurrences in the series. Yield losses bellow 10% were more frequent in October and November, with gamma probability (Pgamma) above 50%, which means that in two years, at least one will provide conditions to have relative yield higher than 90%. In this period, the first and the third ten-days of October are highlighted with Pgamma = 67% and Pgamma = 63%, respectively. In September, December and January, the gamma probability was higher than 50% considering relative yield decreases equal or lower than 20%. In February, the probability of losing 1/5 of the productivity is above 75%. In this case, irrigation is necessary to increase the yield, mainly during the critical period (flowering and grain filling). Yield losses higher than 50% are difficult to happen and the maximum probability is 23.5% in the third ten-days of February.

O conhecimento sobre o balanço de água no solo é essencial ao manejo do sistema solo-água- planta. Esta pesquisa objetivou estudar os componentes do balaço de água em Cambissolo cultivado com meloeiro irrigado por gotejamento, com e sem cobertura da superfície, em Baraúna-RN. Em área experimental de 20 m x 50 m cultivou-se melão Amarelo, variedade AF- 646, no espaçamento de 2,00 m x 0,35 m, num total de dez linhas de plantas de 50 m de extensão cada. A 1/3 e 2/3 da extensão de cada linha de plantas foram instalados quatro tensiômetros, um em cada uma das profundidades 0,1; 0,2; 0,3 e 0,4 m. A instalação foi feita adjacente à linha de irrigação (0,1 m da linha de plantas) entre duas plantas selecionadas, com os tensiômetros espaçados 0,1 m entre si. Em cinco linhas aleatórias fez-se a cobertura com folhas secas de bananeira (Musa sp.) ao longo da linha de gotejamento numa faixa de 0,5 m. Nas outras cinco manteve-se o cultivo sem cobertura. Assim, o experimento consistiu de dois tratamentos, com dez repetições, em quatro períodos fenológicos: inicial (7-22 DAS dias após a semeadura), vegetativo (22-40 DAS), frutificação (40-58 DAS) e maturação (58-70 DAS). As precipitações pluviais foram medidas com pluviômetro e as armazenagens de água estimadas pelo método do trapézio, a partir das leituras dos tensiômetros e das curvas de retenção. Para a determinação das densidades de fluxo de água no limite inferior do volume de controle de solo (0,3 m), foram considerados os tensiômetros nas profundidades 0,2; 0,3 e 0,4 m, sendo que o tensiômetro a 0,3 m foi utilizado para estimar o conteúdo de água no solo, com uso da curva de retenção de água para esta profundidade, e os outros dois para o cálculo do gradiente de potencial total. As densidades de fluxo foram calculadas pela equação de Darcy-Buckingham, com a condutividade hidráulica do solo determinada pelo método do perfil instantâneo. O deflúvio superficial foi desconsiderado e a evapotranspiração real da cultura foi calculada pela equação do balanço de massas. Concluiu-se que: a) à 0,2 m de profundidade a condutividade hidráulica do solo foi baixa; b) o manejo da irrigação com tensiômetros permitiu redução de 45% na lâmina de água em relação à usualmente praticada na região, sem afetar a produtividade da cultura; c) houve efeito positivo da cobertura do solo sobre a armazenagem de água, especialmente nos estádios inicial e vegetativo da cultura; d) o método do balanço de água no solo mostrou-se eficiente na estimativa da evapotranspiração real, em condições de cultivo de meloeiro irrigado; e) a aplicação de uma única lâmina diária de irrigação, mesmo em curto intervalo de tempo, apresenta risco de perda de água por drenagem interna, especialmente nas fases inicial e vegetativa do meloeiro; f) a variabilidade espacial da densidade de fluxo foi elevada quando houve ocorrência de precipitação pluvial; g) não houve efeito da cobertura do solo na evapotranspiração da cultura, nem sobre a produtividade e características pós-colheita dos frutos; h) a curva de coeficiente de cultivo apresenta grandes limitações quando utilizada para fornecer água para o meloeiro. / The knowledge about the soil water balance is essential to soil-water-plant system management. Thus, this research aimed to study the water balance components in an Inceptsol cropped with muskmelon under drip irrigation, with and without surface covering, in the county of Baraúna, Rio Grande do Norte State, Brazil (05º04\'48 S, 37º37\'00 W). In an experimental area of 20 m x 50 m grew up AF-646 muskmelon, spaced 2.00 m x 0.35 m, in a total of ten plants lines 50 m long each. At 1/3 and 2/3 of the length of each plant line, four tensiometers were installed, one in each depths of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 and 0.4 m. The installation was made adjacent to the irrigation line (0.1 m from the plant line) between two selected plants 0.1 m apart. In five random lines, it was made a covering with dry leaves of banana (Musa sp.) along the drip line in the range of 0.5 m. In the other five there was no covering. Thus, the experiment consisted of two treatments whith ten repetitions in four phenological stages: initial (7-22 DAS - days after sowing), growing (22-40 DAS), fruiting (40-58 DAS) and maturing (58-70 DAS). Rainfall was measured with rain gauge and water storage estimated by trapezoidal method, from tensiometer readings and retention curves. To determine the soil water flux densities at the soil depth 0.3 m, tensiometers at depths 0.2, 0.3 and 0.4 m were considered; the tensiometer at 0.3 m was used to estimate the soil water content, from the soil water retention curve at this depth, and the other two to calculate the soil water total potential gradient. The flux densities were calculated by the Darcy-Buckingham equation, with the hydraulic conductivity being determined by the instantaneous profile method. There was no runoff and the crop actual evapotranspiration was calculated by the mass balance equation. It could be concluded that: a) at 0.2 m soil depth the hydraulic conductivity was low; b) controlled irrigation with tensiometers allowed a reduction of 45% in water application in relation to commonly used practice in the region, without crop productivity change; c) there was positive effect of soil covering on water storage, especially at the initial and vegetative stages; d) the method of soil water balance was efficient to estimate actual evapotranspiration, under irrigated muskmelon conditions; e) the application of a single irrigation depth daily, even in a short time period, presents risk of water to be lost by internal drainage, especially at initial and vegetative muskmelon stages; f) the spatial variability of soil water flux density was high when rainfall incidence occurred; g) there was no effect of covering on crop actual evapotranspiration, neither on yield and post-harvest fruits characteristics; h) the crop coefficient curve has severe limitations when used to provide water to the muskmelon.

Para promover o desenvolvimento sustentável e a conservação dos recursos naturais, torna-se fundamental compreender e quantificar a dinâmica do balanço hídrico regional. Comumente, a variabilidade dos componentes do balanço hídrico é causada por variações naturais do clima, contudo, as atividades antrópicas também podem provocar significativas variações espaço-temporais na dinâmica hidrológica da bacia hidrográfica. Ao reduzir a cobertura vegetal do solo, através do desflorestamento ou colheita de culturas anuais, promove-se uma redução na evapotranspiração e conseqüentemente, um aumento na vazão da bacia. Por conseguinte, realizou-se neste estudo a análise das relações entre as variações dos componentes do balanço hídrico e da área com solo exposto na bacia do rio Verde, entre 1995 a 2001 (Período 1) e 2002 a 2008 (Período 2). Para tanto, foi utilizado um banco de dados hidrológicos, climatológicos e de sensoriamento remoto, assim como técnicas de processamento, análise de consistência, testes de significância e modelagem do SEBAL. De acordo com os resultados obtidos neste trabalho, a precipitação pluviométrica anual nos Períodos 1 e 2 não diferiram, resultando em uma lâmina média de 1.405,7mm. Contudo, a vazão média anual da bacia do rio Verde, no Período 1, foi 22% menor que a do Período 2, enquanto que, na sub-bacia denominada Cana, esta diferença foi de 27,7%. Nesta sub-bacia, as vazões anuais do Período 1 foram predominantemente menores, ou bem próximas, daquelas registradas no Período 2, mesmo nos anos do primeiro período em que registrou maior lâmina de precipitação. Da mesma forma, as vazões médias mensais de Fevereiro, Março, Maio, Junho, Julho e Agosto do segundo período foram maiores do que aquelas registradas no primeiro. A lâmina escoada no rio, no primeiro semestre de 2007 (Período 2) e 2001 (Período 1), foi de 404,3 e 188,9mm, respectivamente, sendo que não foi identificado diferença estatística na precipitação deste período. A estimativa da evapotranspiração real () resultou em uma lâmina média de 899,3mm.ano-1, em ambos os períodos. Considerando a precipitação anual, a representava 67,2% das perdas de água, no balanço hídrico da sub-bacia Cana. A modelagem do SEBAL indicou que, na sub-bacia Cana, a evapotranspiração real, em Junho de 2001 e 2007, foi em média de 166,3 e 148,7mm, respectivamente. Em média, 57,3% da área desta sub-bacia apresentava solo exposto entre Junho e Julho, de 1995 a 2008, sendo que em 2001 e 2007, esta proporção era de 50,1 e 53,8%, respectivamente. Constatou-se, também, que a variação da precipitação e percentual de solo exposto, em Junho, não poderia ser responsável por toda variabilidade de vazão da sub-bacia Cana, entre 1995 e 2008. / In order to promote the sustainable development and natural resources conservation, it is important to understand and quantify the dynamics of regional water balance. Generally, the variability of water balance components is produced by natural climate fluctuations. However, anthropic activity may also causes significantly spacetemporal variations in hydrological dynamics of a watershed. Reducing soil cover, by deforestation or crops harvesting, promotes a reduction in evapotranspiration and, as a consequence, an increment of watershed flow. Due to these, this study analyzed the relations between the variations in water balance components and area with bare soil for the Verde River watershed, in 1995 to 2001 (Period 1) and 2002 to 2008 (Period 2). In this way, there were used hydrologic, climatologic and remote sensing databases, even as processing techniques, consistency analysis, significance tests, and modeling with SEBAL. According to the results obtained in this study, the annual precipitation for the Periods 1 and 2 do not differed, resulting in a mean water depth of 1,405.7mm. On the other hand, mean annual Verde River watershed flow was 22% less for the Period 1 as compared to the Period 2. For the sub-watershed named Cana, this difference was 27.7%. In this sub-watershed annual flow for the Period 1 was predominantly lower, sometimes equal, to those obtained for the Period 2, even for those years of the Period 1 where was determined higher precipitation. In this same way, monthly flow averages were higher for the Period 2 in February, March, May, June, July, and August. Total flow for the 1st semester, 2007 (Period 2) and 2001 (Period 1) was 404.3 and 188.9mm, respectively. No statistical difference was found for precipitation of this period. For both periods, average estimates of evapotranspiration were 899.3mm year-1. This suggests that evapotranspiration corresponded to 67.2% of water losses of the water balance in sub-watershed Cana. The SEBAL modeling indicated that, for the sub-watershed Cana, the actual evapotranspiration, in June, 2001 and 2007, was 166.3 and 148.7mm, respectively. In terms of mean values, 57.3% of the area of this sub-watershed was composed of bare soil between June and July, 1995 to 2008. For 2001 and 2007, this proportion was 50.1 and 53.8%, respectively. There was also observed that the variation in precipitation and percentage of bare soil in June might not be capable of promote all the variability in flow of the sub-watershed Cana for the period between 1995 and 2008.

O objetivo deste estudo foi verificar as influências dos fenômenos El Niño/La Niña (EN/LN) no rendimento regional de trigo cultivado no Paraná entre 1976 e 2002. Os dados de produtividade foram obtidos junto à SEAB e os meteorológicos junto ao IAPAR, e agrupados em 6 regiões produtoras (norte, noroeste, oeste, sudoeste, sul e centro-oeste). A tendência tecnológica da série de cada região foi eliminada para facilitar a associação entre a ocorrência dos eventos EN/LN e os desvios na produtividade regional. O balanço hídrico climatológico seqüencial de Thornthwaite-Mather (CAD = 100 mm) na escala decendial permitiu detectar a situação da umidade do solo regional durante o período de cultivo em cada ano com desvio significativo de produtividade. Verificou-se queda do rendimento em anos de El Niño nas regiões centro-oeste e oeste, e tendência a acréscimo ao rendimento em anos de La Niña na região sul. Para as regiões norte, noroeste e sudoeste não foi encontrado efeito significativo desses fenômenos sobre o rendimento regional. / The aim of this study was to verify the influences of El Niño/La Niña (EN/LN) in the regional yield of wheat in Paraná from 1976 to 2002. The yield and meteorological data were grouped in 6 regions, i.e., north, northwest, west, south, southwest, and central west. The technological trend of the yield series was eliminated to allow associations between the occurrence of the events EN/LN and the deviation of regional yield. Sequential climatological Thornthwaite-Mather water balance (SWC = 100 mm) on a 10-days time scale was used to detect the regional soil moisture conditions during the growth period in each year with large yield deviation. There was yield decrease in years of EN in the center-west and west regions, and tendency of yield increase in LN years in the south region. In the north, northwest, and southwest regions there was no significant effect of the EN/LN on the regional wheat yield.

No Brasil as pesquisas com Jatropha curcas L. foram impulsionadas a partir do marco regulatório do Programa Nacional de Produção e Uso do Biodiesel de 2004, em virtude da necessidade de substituição de matéria prima para fins energéticos. Por ser uma cultura recente no Brasil, ainda não existem pesquisas que definam a sua viabilidade e o sistema de cultivo mais adequado, apesar de muito se divulgar sobre a planta e suas potencialidades em regiões com grandes períodos de seca. Deste modo, o presente trabalho teve por objetivo caracterizar agroclimaticamente o Centro de Origem da jatropha para definição dos critérios de aptidão e elaboração do zoneamento agroclimático nas regiões brasileiras de maior estímulo ao plantio da cultura. Para tanto, foram levantados dados meteorológicos normais do Centro de Origem, no México e na Guatemala, o que permitiu a caracterização agroclimática dessas regiões e a definição das variáveis que mais afetam a cultura: temperatura do ar (Ta); deficiência hídrica (DEF); e excedente hídrico (EXC). A faixa de Ta apta para a jatropha está entre 23 e 27°C, sendo que as faixas entre 15 e 22,9°C e entre 27,1 a 2 8°C são classificadas como marginais por deficiência e excesso térmico, respectivamente. Abaixo de 15°C e acima de 28°C, as condições de inaptidão. Para o DEF, a aptidão ocorre para valores abaixo de 360 mm; enquanto entre 361 e 720 mm às áreas são consideradas marginais e acima de 720 mm inaptas. A faixa apta estabelecida para o EXC situa-se até 1200 mm, marginal entre 1201 e 2400 e inapta acima de 2400 mm. Os critérios definidos subsidiaram a elaboração do zoneamento agroclimático para a região Nordeste e para os estado do Tocantins, Goiás e Minas Gerais. Para a elaboração do zoneamento agroclimático da jatropha, os dados de temperatura e precipitação foram obtidos junto ao INMET e à ANA e empregados na confecção dos balanços hídricos normais. Os valores resultantes desses balanços, como evapotranspiração potencial (ETP) e real (ETR), DEF e EXC, compuseram a análise para espacialização a fim de se obter a variabilidade temporal e espacial dessas variáveis. A interpolação dos dados foi feita empregando-se o método da regressão linear múltipla, para estimativa espacial das variáveis agroclimáticas, e o da krigagem ordinária, para interpolação dos erros das estimativas. Os mapas gerados de Ta, DEF e EXC foram cruzados para obtenção dos mapas finais do zoneamento agroclimático para as regiões selecionadas. A partir dos mapas do zoneamento pode-se concluir que apenas 22,65% da região NE encontra-se como apta ao cultivo da jatropha, sendo as demais áreas classificada como marginal por deficiência hídrica (50,31%), marginal por excesso térmico e deficiência hídrica (11,79%) e inaptas (14,73%). Os estados de GO e TO apresentam a maior porcentagem de áreas aptas (47,78%), seguidas pelas áreas marginais por excesso térmico e deficiência hídrica (28,08%), marginais por deficiência hídrica (14,43%), e inaptas (9,37%). O estado de MG possui 33,91% de áreas aptas, 32,14% de áreas marginais por deficiência hídrica, 32,61% de áreas marginais por deficiência térmica e apenas 0,24% das áreas inaptas. A análise de risco, conduzida para o estado do TO, permitiu comprovar as chances de sucesso da cultura e confirmar que o zoneamento agroclimático para jatropha foi viável para estabelecer as áreas de maior favorabilidade ao cultivo dessa espécie. / In Brazil the researches with Jatropha curcas L. were stimulated by the regulatory mark of the National Program of Production and Use of Biodiesel of 2004, considering the necessity of changing the raw material for energetic purposes. As jatropha is a recent crop in Brazil, the researches for defining its feasibility and the best crop system are not yet available, even considering the promises about this plant as of high potential for regions with long drought periods. Based on that, the present study had as objectives to characterize the climate of the jatropha Center of Origin for defining the criteria for crop feasibility and for agroclimatic crop zoning in the Brazilian regions considered of high potentiality for the crop. For such purposes, climate data from de Center of Origin, in Mexico and Guatemala, were obtained and used for agroclimatic characterization and definition of the more relevant climatic variables for the crop: annual temperature (Ta); water deficiency (WD); and water surplus (WS). The range of Ta considered as feasible for jatropha was between 23 and 27oC; whereas between 15 and 22.9oC and between 27.1 and 28oC they were considered marginal, with limitations due to thermal deficiency and excess, respectively. Below 15oC and above 28oC, the conditions were considered unfeasible. For WD, the feasibility was considered for values below 360 mm. Values between 361 and 720 mm were considered marginal by water deficiency and above 720 mm unfeasible. The feasible condition for WS was admitted for values below 1200 mm; whereas marginality was considered for values between 1201 and 2400 mm. When the WS is above 2400 mm, the conditions are unfeasible. These criteria subsidized the elaboration of the jatropha crop zoning for the following Brazilian regions: Northeast region and states of Goiás, Tocantins, and Minas Gerais. For the confection of the crop zoning, climatic data from INMET and ANA were obtained and organized to calculate the normal climatological water balance. The outputs of the normal water balance, as potential (PET) and actual (AET) evapotranspiration, WD, and WS, were spacialized aiming to recognize the temporal and spatial variability of them. The interpolation of these variables was done base on the multiple linear regression method, associated to the ordinary kriging interpolation of the errors. The agroclimatic maps obtained for Ta, WD, and WS were crossed for obtaining the final agroclimatic crop zoning maps for the selected regions. Based on these maps, it was detected that only 22.65% of the areas in the NE region are feasible for jatropha. The other areas of the region are classified as marginal by water deficiency (50.31%), marginal by water deficiency and thermal excess (11.79%), and unfeasible (14.73%). In the states of Goiás and Tocantins the majority of the areas (47.78%) is classified as feasible, followed by 28.08% of the areas considered as marginal by water deficiency and thermal excess, 14.43% as marginal by water deficiency, and 9.37% as unfeasible. In Minas Gerais, 33.91% of the areas of the state are feasible, 32.14% are marginal by water deficiency, 32.61% are marginal by thermal deficiency, and only 0.24% are unfeasible. The analysis of climatic risk, conducted for Tocantins state, allowed to identify with more details where the jatropha crop can be successful and also proved that the agroclimatic crop zoning for jatropha was able to establish the areas of high favorability for growing this crop.

: The topic of artificial recharge technology for water supply into the underground, its direct use and application in the field is becoming a more frequent foreign question, but also in the Czech Republic. This is due to the negative trend in groundwater levels over the past 10 years, caused by drought and temperature regression trends. The theoretical part of this thesis presents the knowledge of the use of artificial groundwater recharge, even with specific cases in the world or in the Czech Republic. This work is especially focused on a very specific case of the construction that represent underground dam in the village of Meziboří in the environment of the Czech massif "hard rocks". Specifically, its efficiency and impact on natural groundwater runoff. For this purpose, a numerical model was developed in the program Groundwater Vistas (extension for MODFLOW). From the results we can observe the influence of natural groundwater regime in both static and dynamic model. After simulating the dam in a steady- state regime of unaffected conditions, the groundwater level in the model before the dam increased significantly above ground level. The possible pumping without drying the collector then represents values 5,4 - 5,8 m3 /day (0,063 - 0,067 l/s) from the well just before the dam. The drain...

In den letzten drei Jahrzehnten wurden in einigen Seen und Feuchtgebieten in bewaldeten Einzugsgebieten Nordost-Brandenburgs sinkende Wasserstände beobachtet. In diesen Gebieten bestimmt die Grundwasserneubildung im Einzugsgebiet maßgeblich das Wasserdargebot der Seen und Feuchtgebiete, die deshalb hier als grundwasserabhängige Landschaftselemente bezeichnet werden. Somit weisen die sinkenden Wasserstände auf einen Rückgang der wegen des geringen Niederschlagsdargebotes ohnehin schon geringen Grundwasserneubildung hin. Die Höhe der Grundwasserneubildung ist neben den hydroklimatischen Randbedingungen auch von der Landnutzung abhängig. Veränderungen in der Waldvegetation und der hydroklimatischen Randbedingungen bewirken Änderungen der Grundwasserneubildung und beeinflussen somit auch den Wasserhaushalt der Seen und Feuchtgebiete. Aktuell wird die Waldvegetation durch Kiefernmonokulturen dominiert, mit im Vergleich zu anderen Baumarten höherer Evapotranspiration. Entwicklungen in der Forstwirtschaft streben die Verringerung von Kiefernmonokulturen an. Diese sollen langfristig auf geeigneten Standorten durch Laubmischwälder ersetzt werden. Dadurch lassen sich eine geringere Evapotranspiration und damit eine höhere Grundwasserneubildung erreichen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden am Beispiel des Redernswalder Sees und des Briesensees die Ursachen der beobachteten sinkenden Wasserstände analysiert. Ihre Wasserstände nahmen in den letzten 25 Jahren um mehr als 3 Meter ab. Weiterhin wird untersucht, wie die erwarteten Klimaänderungen und Veränderungen in der Waldbewirtschaftung die zukünftige Grundwasserneubildung und den Wasserhaushalt von Seen beeinflussen können. Die Entwicklung der Grundwasserneubildung im Untersuchungsgebiet wurde mit dem Wasserhaushaltsmodell WaSiM-ETH simuliert. Die Analyse der Wechselwirkungen der Seen mit dem regionalen quartären Grundwasserleitersystem erfolgte mit dem 3D-Grundwassermodell FEFLOW. Mögliche zukünftige Veränderungen der Grundwasserneubildung und der Seewasserstände durch Klimaänderungen und Waldumbau wurden mit Szenarienrechnungen bis zum Jahr 2100 analysiert. Die modellgestützte Analyse zeigte, dass die beobachteten abnehmenden Wasserstände zu etwa gleichen Anteilen durch Veränderungen der hydroklimatischen Randbedingungen sowie durch Veränderungen in der Waldvegetation und damit abnehmenden Grundwasserneubildungsraten zu erklären sind. Die zukünftigen Entwicklungen der Grundwasserneubildung und der Wasserstände sind geprägt von sich ändernden hydroklimatischen Randbedingungen und einem sukzessiven Wandel der Kiefernbestände zu Laubwäldern. Der Waldumbau hat positive Wirkungen auf die Grundwasserneubildung und damit auf die Wasserstände. Damit können die Einflüsse des eingesetzten REMO-A1B-Klimaszenarios zum Ende des Modellzeitraumes durch den Waldumbau nicht kompensiert werden, das Sinken des Wasserstandes wird jedoch wesentlich reduziert. Bei dem moderateren REMO-B1-Klimaszenario werden die Wasserstände des Jahres 2008 durch den Waldumbau bis zum Jahr 2100 überschritten. / Declining water levels have been observed in some lakes and wetlands in forested catchments in North-East Brandenburg (Germany). Groundwater recharge mainly controls the supply of water available for lakes and wetlands, therefore determining them as groundwater-dependent landscape elements. Thus, the declining water levels indicate a reduction of groundwater recharge. Aspects such as climate change and different forest management practices have been considered as main factors affecting the regional groundwater regime. Currently, forest landscapes in North-East Brandenburg are dominated by pine monoculture. Depending on the climate conditions, groundwater recharge can be significantly lower under pine than under broad-leaved species like beech or oak. Regional forest administration is currently planning to expand the share of broad-leaved trees among mixed deciduous forest in the future. For this study, two lakes were chosen, the Redernswalder See and the Briesensee at Poratz. Water gauge measurements over the last 25 years showed a decline in lake water level by more than 3 m. To identify and quantify the share of changes in both, climate and forest management, the principal processes were evaluated using field measurements and water balance modelling. In the following step, alternative climate change and forestry scenarios were analysed to discover their impacts on the regional distribution of groundwater recharge. At first, the causes of the declining observed water levels were analysed. For this purpose, the physically based and fully distributed water balance model WaSiM-ETH was used to simulate groundwater recharge in the catchment and evaporation from the lake surfaces from 1958 to 2007. To analyse the geohydrological conditions, a FEFLOW 3D groundwater model was built up for the underlying Quaternary aquifer system. Possible development directions of the water balance were simulated under the influence of climate change and forest conversion until 2100. The model based analysis showed that the observed declining water levels are caused by both changes in climatic boundary conditions and in forest vegetation (age distribution and understorey) followed by decreasing groundwater recharge with an equal magnitude. The future developments of groundwater recharge and water levels are governed by changes in climatic boundary conditions and a transition from pine monoculture to broad-leaved trees. Forest conversion will show a positive effect on groundwater recharge and likely increase the water levels of lakes and wetlands. The forest conversation can not completely compensate the impact of climate change to the lake water levels, but the decrease can be significantly limited.

Forested watersheds play a dominant role in the global hydrological cycle. Very few experimental observatories especially in tropical forested regions of India have been undertaken. This study has been initiated for this reason and to gain insights into functioning of the hydrological system in such climatic conditions. This study involves experimental setup of a watershed, it’s monitoring till date, modelling of the hydrological processes observed and the challenges in modelling components of the water balance in this watershed. A Small Experimental Watershed of 4.3 Km2 was set up at Mule Hole, in South India along the Kerala-Karnataka State borders, and is situated inside the Bandipur National park. After an overview of watershed studies, review of literature related to forest watershed studies and processes in the first two chapters, Chapter 3 introduces the study area, Mule Hole Experimental Watershed and explains the methodology used to study this watershed. Model SWAT was used initially to simulate the water balance components. A brief description of the model, methodology adopted and discussion on the results obtained is presented in Chapter 4. The watershed initially modelled as an ungauged watershed using the default parameters in the model, simulated very high groundwater contribution to the runoff. The calibrated model although performed favourably for annual average values and monthly calibration, the daily calibration was unsatisfactory. An auxiliary study on quantification of actual and potential evapotranspiration (ET0) has been carried out in Chapter 5 . Ten methods including Penman-Montieth were compared and evaluated for efficacy of the methods. All methods except for Hargreaves method showed agreement with the Penman-Montieth for annual average values. Priestly-Taylor method was found be the best estimator in comparison with Penman-Montieth method, when used to estimate AET. Adjusted Hargreaves and FAO Blaney -Criddle method were found to be very useful when few or limited climatic data were available for estimation of Potential evapotranspiration. A multidisciplinary approach of estimating recharge consisting of chloride mass balance technique coupled with study of water table fluctuations and groundwater flow analytical modelling has been attempted in Chapter 6. Direct and localized recharge was estimated at 45 mm/yr and indirect recharge 30 mm/yr for the monitored years in the watershed. The low values of recharge rates implied an unexpected very high evapotranspiration rate. It may be inferred that in the absence of groundwater flow to the stream, the recharge joins groundwater flow as outflow of the hydrologic system. An integrated lumped model incorporating the regolith zone and the capability of the tree roots to access this store is presented in Chapter 7. The model was able to simulate the pattern of lag-time between water table rise was observed in shallow piezometers in comparison with hillslope piezometers. The patterns of water table variation among the different hillslope piezometers suggest that they are linked with local processes and not by a regional aquifer dynamics. This study shows that water uptake, combined with the spatial variability of regolith depth, can account for the variable lag time between drainage events and groundwater rise observed for the different piezometers. Chapter 8 discusses the results, conclusions derived from this study and possibility of further scope of studies.

A key element of hydrologic routing models is the storage-discharge relationship assumed to follow a certain mathematical form, usually a linear or a power function, the parameters of which are calibrated based on existing inflow-outflow data. While this assumption simplifies the model calibration process, it also constrains the models to operate by this function throughout their flow range. In view of the complex and nonlinear river flow behavior, this approximation undoubtedly introduces errors. This research presents a new hydrologic river routing approach that is not limited by the above assumption. River reaches are modeled as cascades of interacting conceptual reservoirs, with storage-discharge functions identified by the data. A novel parameter estimation approach has been developed to identify these functions and all other model parameters based on control theory concepts. After calibration, these functions indeed exhibit different mathematical forms at different regions of their active variation range. The new approach is applied and successfully demonstrated in real world reservoir and river routing applications from the Nile River Basin. A Bayesian forecasting scheme was also developed that uses the new approach to generate flow forecasts with explicit uncertainty characterization.

The overall purpose of this study was to define the water balance of feedlot pens in a Saskatchewan cattle feeding operation for a one year period. Although the initial intention of the study was focused upon an active feedlot, cattle were removed from the pens in July 2003. Therefore, the year of analysis was conducted on the manured surface of an inactive feedlot. The water balance was also performed on a scraped soil surface, since manure is removed from the pens and spread on agricultural land, leaving the pen surfaces bare for a short period of time each year. <p>During the monitoring period (Sept. 2003 to Aug. 2004), 313 mm of precipitation was received at the feedlot, but only 84 mm of that total was received before June 2004. Winter precipitation was very low (33 mm) and there was no observed runoff from it. Runoff collection weirs in operation for only part of the summer recorded no runoff. The Green-Ampt and USDA SCS runoff models, as well as a snowmelt runoff equation, were used to predict runoff from both the manure pack, as well as the scraped soil surface. Using manure and soil hydraulic parameters determined in the laboratory (from falling head permeameter measurements) and the field (from rainfall simulations), as well as incorporating the greatest 24 hour rainfall amounts and 30 minute intensities experienced at the feedlot, the USDA model found that 29 mm of runoff would occur from the scraped soil surface. Additionally, snowmelt runoff was estimated to be 19 mm for the winter precipitation received. Drainage beneath the 0.6 m soil depth was negligible and the top 0.6 m of soil experienced an increase in moisture of 54 mm. Finally, 211 mm was lost as evaporation. For the manure pack, no runoff was predicted using the Green-Ampt and USDA SCS models and snowmelt runoff equation, which corresponded well to the lack of runoff measured both from the weir and rainfall simulations. Drainage beneath 0.6 m soil depth was negligible. Of the 313 mm of precipitation that fell during the study year, 42 mm was stored within the manure pack and the rest was lost as evaporation (271 mm).