During 1998-2012, climate change and sea level rise (SLR) exhibit two notable features: a slowdown of global surface warming (hiatus) and a rapid SLR in the tropical western Pacific. To quantify their relationship, we analyze the long-term control simulations of 38 climate models. We find a significant and robust correlation between the east-west contrast of dynamic sea level (DSL) in the Pacific and global mean surface temperature (GST) variability on both interannual and decadal time scales. Based on linear regression of the multimodel ensemble mean, the anomalously fast SLR in the western tropical Pacific observed during 1998-2012 indicates suppression of a potential global surface warming of 0.16 degrees 0.06 degrees C. In contrast, the Pacific contributed 0.29 degrees 0.10 degrees C to the significant interannual GST increase in 1997/1998. The Pacific DSL anomalies observed in 2015 suggest that the strong El Nino in 2015/2016 could lead to a 0.21 degrees 0.07 degrees C GST jump.

The most critical hazards impacting the world today are the affects of climate change and global warming. Scientists have been studying the Earth's climate for centuries and have come to agreement that our climate is changing, and has changed, many times abruptly over the history of our planet. This research focuses on the impacts of global warming related to increased hurricane intensities and their surge responses along the coast of the State of Louisiana. Surge responses are quantified for storms that could potentially occur under present climate but 50 years into the future on a coast subjected to current erosion and local subsidence effects. Analyses of projected hurricane intensities influenced by an increase in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are performed. Intensities of these storms are projected to increase by 5% per degree of increase in SSTs. A small suite of these storms influenced by global warming and potentially realized by abrupt climate changes are modeled. Simulations of these storms are executed using a storm surge model. The surges produced by these storms are significantly higher than surges produced by presentday storms. These surges are then compared to existing surge frequency distributions along the Louisiana coast.

Para medir o impacto de mudanças climáticas, acompanhadas variações do investimento agrícola, sobre a atividade agrícola brasileira, foram estimadas conjuntamente funções de receita e de custo de produtos e insumos agrícolas. Estas foram derivadas de uma função de lucro restrita, condicional a variáveis de clima e investimento. A pesquisa inova pela metodologia, diferente das demais empregadas anteriormente para o caso brasileiro, pela maior precisão dos dados de clima e pela inclusão do investimento agrícola como variável de mitigação dos efeitos gerados pela variação climática. Os resultados mostraram uma redução da lucratividade agrícola para o Brasil com o aumento da temperatura e precipitação no longo prazo, apesar de variarem conforme regiões. Saíram beneficiadas regiões mais ricas, em detrimento das mais pobres, cuja maior parte da produção agrícola é voltada para a subsistência. O investimento agrícola atuou como redutor desta tendência, de crescimento da desigualdade agrícola, ajudando a reverter apenas parcialmente o efeito do aquecimento. / To measure the impact of climate changes along with changes in agricultural investments in Brazil\'s agricultural sector, this paper jointly estimates revenue functions for the outputs and cost functions for the inputs. These equations were derived from a restricted profit function conditional to climate and investment variables. The paper innovates by using the profit function approach to study Brazils agricultural sector. It also brings more precise data and adds investment as a relevant variable in the model. Results show a reduction in profitability as temperature and precipitation grow, but they are not homogeneous amongst the different regions. Richer regions seem to do better than the poor ones, which have a large part of their production focused on subsistence. Investment seems to act as a counterbalance to this trend of increasing agricultural inequality, partially reverting the global warming effects.

A expansão da fronteira agrícola amazônica representa possivelmente a mais extensa e profunda mudança no uso da terra do mundo contemporâneo. Estima-se que a Bacia Amazônica já teve 20% de sua área desmatada e seus ecossistemas aquáticos, que abrigam a maior diversidade de peixes de água doce do planeta, também vem enfrentando inúmeras outras pressões, entre elas a construção de barragens. O desmatamento e a construção de barragens causam profundas alterações nas características bióticas e abióticas dos ecossistemas lóticos, incluindo o aquecimento da água e mudanças na composição e estrutura das assembleias de peixes. Existem inúmeras evidências de que o aumento da temperatura afeta negativamente o tamanho corporal dos organismos, e aquecimentos provocados por mudanças climáticas já foram relacionados com reduções no tamanho corporal de peixes. Contudo, faltam estudos que demonstrem que processos locais e regionais de grande relevância como as mudanças no uso da terra, também podem causar o mesmo resultado. Com foco geográfico no arco do desmatamento amazônico nas cabeceiras do Rio Xingu, os objetivos desta tese foram, (i) investigar os efeitos do desmatamento e da construção de barragens sobre características ambientais, e sobre a composição e estrutura das assembleias de peixes em riachos de primeira ordem; e (ii) testar as hipóteses de que a conversão de florestas em áreas agrícolas está associada a um aquecimento dos riachos e a uma redução no tamanho corporal dos peixes, e que esta redução no tamanho corporal é resultado de alterações na crescimento dos peixes, seja por mecanismos de adaptação e/ou por plasticidade fenotípica, promovidas pelo aquecimento do ambiente. No primeiro capítulo desta tese, demonstramos que o desmatamento e a construção de barragens provocam alterações em características ambientais dos riachos de primeira ordem que afetam a disponibilidade de hábitat para os peixes. Isto resultou em alterações na composição e estrutura das assembleias, de forma que riachos de área agrícola apresentaram maior abundância e biomassa de peixes que riachos de floresta. Trechos represados apresentaram menor riqueza de espécies que trechos lóticos tanto em ambientes florestados como desmatados, sugerindo que a construção de barragens constitui uma ameaça significativa para a conservação da biodiversidade de peixes. No segundo capítulo, combinamos amostragem em campo e experimentos em laboratório e campo para demonstrar que a conversão de florestas em áreas agrícolas aqueceos riachos de cabeceira e reduz o tamanho corporal dos peixes através de alterações nas taxas de crescimento individual Os aquecimentos e reduções de tamanho que observamos foram consideravelmente maiores que os reportados na literatura para os efeitos observados e previstos do aquecimento global. Este é o primeiro estudo, até onde nós sabemos, que investigou os efeitos do aquecimento provocado pelo desmatamento no tamanho corporal de peixes. É possível que reduções no tamanho corporal de peixes mediadas pelo aquecimento estejam ocorrendo ao longo de todo o arco do desmatamento, onde riachos de primeira ordem coletivamente contribuem com grande fração da biodiversidade de espécies amazônicas, muitas delas endêmicas. / The expansion of the Amazonian agricultural frontier possibly represents the most extensive and profound land use change in the contemporary world. Deforestation, dam construction, and numerous other pressures have serious impacts on its aquatic ecosystems, that collectively hold the greatest diversity of freshwater fish on the planet. Deforestation and dam construction cause profound changes in biotic and abiotic characteristics of stream ecosystems, including water heating and changes in the composition and structure of fish assemblages. There are many evidences that the increase in temperature negatively affect organisms body size, and warming caused by climate changes have already been associated with reductions in fish body size. However, there are no studies showing that local and regional processes of major relevance, such land use changes, can also cause the same result. With a geographic focus on the Amazonian arc of deforestation in the headwaters of the Xingu River, the objectives of this thesis were: (i) to investigate the effects of deforestation and dam construction on environmental characteristics, and on the composition and structure of fish assemblages in first order streams; and (ii) to test the hypothesis that the conversion of forests into agricultural areas is associated with stream warming and reductions in fish body size, and that this reduction in body size is a result of changes in individual growth caused by adaptation and/or phenotypic plasticity, promoted by environmental warming. In the first chapter of this thesis, we show that deforestation and the construction of dams cause changes in environmental characteristics of first-order streams that affect the habitat availability for fish. This resulted in changes in the composition and structure of assemblages, so that agricultural area streams showed higher abundance and biomass of fish that forest streams. Reservoirs had lower species richness than lotic stretches both in forested and deforested streams, suggesting that the construction of dams poses a significant threat to the conservation of fish biodiversity. In the second chapter, we combine field sampling and laboratory and field experiments to demonstrate that the conversion of forests into agricultural areas warms headwater streams and reduces fish body size through changes in individual growth rates. Warming and size reductions we observed were considerably higher than those reported in the literature for the observed and predicted effects of global warming. This is the first study as far as we know, that investigated the effects of warming caused by deforestation in fish body size. It is possible that a broad scale fish body size reduction due to warming is occurring throughout the arc of deforestation, in streams that collectively account for a large fraction of Amazonian fish biodiversity.

Thesis advisor: Eric Strauss / Thesis advisor: Peter Auger / Climate change is quickly becoming an important global concern with considerable and varied long-term consequences. In order to lessen the effects of this phenomenon it is necessary to institute regulatory policies that control carbon dioxide emissions, since they have been shown to directly correlate with temperature changes. Despite the prevalence of climate change initiatives, both internationally and within the United States, there is no comprehensive national policy with respect to the issue. The public and political conditions in the United States are presently ideal for the institution of a federal climate change policy, the most effective of which involves the incorporation of multiple emissions reductions measures. / Thesis (BS) — Boston College, 2007. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Biology. / Discipline: College Honors Program.

In Brazil, country with the fifth largest world production of milk, diets formulations are also carried out on the basis of nutritional requirements established in other countries, especially those from predominantly temperate climate. Research validation nutritional systems have evidenced application incompatibility of systems generated in temperate conditions at tropical conditions. Thus, the aim of this study was to determinate energy requirements, energetic partition and methane (CH4) enteric emission from growing Holstein, Gyr and F1 Holstein-Gyr dairy heifers in tropical conditions. The trial was conducted at The Multi-use Livestock Complex of Bioefficiency and Sustainability at Embrapa Dairy Cattle, Coronel Pacheco - MG, Brazil. Were evaluated 36 heifers, 12 Holstein, 12 Gyr and 12 Holstein-Gyr in 3 distinct experiments. In the first one, the 36 heifers were distributed in 12 latin squares, in a 3x3 factorial arrangement which was 3 nutritional plans and 3 genotypes. The nutritional plans were (1) 1.0x maintenance; (2) 1.5x maintenance and (3) 2.0x maintenance and the heifers were fed a diet consisting of 85.0% of corn silage and 15.0% of concentrate on a dry matter (DM) basis. Enteric CH4 emission was evaluated by SF6 tracer technique. Dry matter intake (DMI) and nutrients presented interaction among genotype and nutritional plan. Gyr heifers demonstrated higher crude protein (CP) digestibility (76.55%), F1 Holstein-Gyr intermediary value (75.14%) and Holstein animals presented the lowest value (74.59%). Daily CH4 production (g/d) was influenced by nutritional plan and differed as well between genotypes whereas Gyr heifers compared to the others had lesser CH4 emissions. Heifers fed at lower nutritional plan presented highest (85.5%) CH4 emissions by average daily gain (g/ kg of ADG) when compared to heifers fed at the higher nutritional plan. We found annual emissions of 45.84 kg of CH4. The second experiment has as objective measure the heat production (HP) and the enteric CH4 emission from dairy heifers using face mask (FM) method. The same animals, treatments and diets that were used in the first study were used in this second and third one. The HP expressed in Mcal by metabolic body weight (Mcal/BW0.75) was affect by genotype and Gyr heifers presented lower HP (163.2) when compared to Holstein (201.0) while F1 Holstein-Gyr heifers did not differ (181.3). Observed interaction among genotype and nutritional plan to CH4 emission in (g/d) and grams per kilo of metabolic body weight (g/kg of BW0.75). When expressed in dry matter ingested was not found genotype or nutritional plans effects to CH4 production. In the third study, our objective was to determine energy requirements, energetic partition and enteric CH4 emission using the \"gold standard\" methodology as calorimetric respirometry. Each heifers spent one 24 hours period in an open-circuit respirometric chamber (RC) to measurements. The CH4 emission was influenced by genotype and nutritional plan. Holstein and F1 Holstein-Gyr heifers demonstrated 73.4% superior emissions when compared to Gyr heifers. The net energy requirements for maintenance (NEm/kcal BW0.75) was 103.9 for Holstein heifers, 79.86 for Gyr heifers and 103.8 for F1 Holstein-Gyr heifers. The metabolizable energy requirements for maintenance (MEm/kcal BW0.75) was 132.6 for Holstein heifers, 116.0 for Gyr heifers and 138.2 for F1 Holstein-Gyr heifers. Were not found differences among Holstein and F1 heifers on NEm and MEm, so was formulated a combined equation for both, where the net and metabolizable energy requirements for maintenance were 105.2 and 135.0 kcal/BW0.75, respectively. We concluded that our results about nutritional requirements had similarity with available literature from respirometric chambers. These generated data from dairy cattle will be used for a future data base vising the establishment of feed patterns for representative dairy cattle genotypes in national herd composition. Also, the enteric methane emission data obtained in this study will be used in the greenhouse gases national inventory. / No Brasil, país com a quinta maior produção mundial de leite, as formulações de dietas ainda são realizadas com base nas exigências nutricionais estabelecidas em países de clima predominantemente temperado. Pesquisas de validação de sistemas nutricionais têm evidenciado incompatibilidade de aplicação dos sistemas gerados em condições temperadas às condições tropicais. Assim, objetivou-se com o presente trabalho determinar as exigências de energia, a partição da energia consumida e emissão de metano (CH4) entérico de novilhas leiteiras em crescimento das raças Holandês, Gir e F1 Holandês-Gir, em condições tropicais. O experimento foi realizado no Complexo Experimental Multiusuário da Embrapa Gado de Leite, localizado no Campo Experimental José Henrique Bruschi, em Coronel Pacheco - MG. Foram avaliadas 36 novilhas leiteiras, sendo 12 da raça Holandês, 12 da raça Gir e 12 F1 Holandês-Gir em 3 experimentos distintos. No primeiro experimento, as 36 novilhas foram distribuídas em 12 quadrados latinos, em arranjo fatorial 3x3, ou seja, 3 planos nutricionais e 3 grupos genéticos. Os planos nutricionais foram (1) 1.0x mantença; (2) 1.5x mantença e (3) 2.0x mantença e as novilhas foram alimentadas com uma dieta constituída de 85.0% de silagem de milho e 15.0% de concentrado com base na matéria seca (MS). A metodologia empregada para mensuração de CH4 foi a técnica do gás traçador SF6. O consumo de matéria seca (CMS) e nutrientes apresentou interação entre genótipo e plano nutricional. Novilhas da raça Gir apresentam maior digestibilidade da proteína bruta (76,55%), as F1 Holandês-Gir valor intermediário (75,14%) enquanto que os animais da raça Holandês apresentaram o menor valor (74,59%). A produção diária de metano em grama dia (g/d) foi influenciada pelo plano nutricional e também diferiu entre grupo genético, sendo que novilhas da raça Gir quando comparadas às demais tiveram menor emissão de CH4 entérico. Novilhas alimentadas sob o menor plano nutricional apresentaram maior emissão de CH4 (85,5%) por ganho de peso diário (g/kg de GPD) quando comparada as novilhas sob o maior plano nutricional. A produção média de CH4 anual encontrada no presente estudo foi de 45,84 kg. O segundo experimento teve como objetivo mensurar a produção de calor (PC) e a emissão de CH4 entérico por novilhas leiteiras através do método da máscara facial. Os mesmos animais, tratamentos e dietas que foram utilizadas no primeiro estudo foram utilizados neste estudo e no estudo que será descrito posteriormente a esse. A PC expressa em Mcal por peso vivo metabólico (Mcal/PVM) foi afetada por genótipo e novilhas da raça Gir apresentaram menor PC (163,2) quando comparada as novilhas Holandês (201,0) enquanto que as novilhas F1 Holandês-Gir não diferiu das demais (181,3). Observou-se interação entre genótipo e plano nutricional para emissão de CH4 em grama dia e em grama por quilo de peso vivo metabólico. Quando expresso em relação à matéria seca ingerida, não foram encontrados efeitos de genótipo ou plano nutricional para emissão de CH4. O terceiro estudo objetivou determinar as exigências de energia, a partição energética e a emissão metano entérico pela metodologia padrão de respirometria calorimétrica. Cada novilha permaneceu por um período de 24 horas no interior da câmara para as mensurações. A emissão de CH4 (g/d) foi influenciada por genótipo e plano nutricional. Novilhas Holandês e F1 Holandês-Gir demonstram emissões superiores em 73,4% quando comparadas as novilhas da raça Gir. A exigência de energia líquida para mantença (ELm/kcal BW0,75) foi 103,9 para novilhas Holandês, 79,86 para novilhas Gir e 103,8 para novilhas F1 Holandês-Gir. A exigência de energia metabolizável para mantença (EMm/kcal BW0,75) foi 132, 6 para novilhas Holandês, 116,0 para novilhas Gir e 138,2 para novilhas F1 Holandês-Gir. Não foram encontradas diferenças entre novilhas Holandês e F1 Holandês-Gir para exigências de ELm e EMm, então foi formulada uma equação combinada para ambas, onde ELm e EMm foram 105,2 e 135,0 kcal/BW0,75, respectivamente. Concluiu-se que os atuais resultados de exigências em energia tiveram similaridade com a literatura disponível e serão utilizados para inclusão no banco de dados de gado de leite, a ser formado com trabalhos já existentes e outros que ainda serão desenvolvidos, visando ao futuro estabelecimento das normas e padrões nacionais de alimentação para bovinos leiteiros dos grupos genéticos mais representativos do rebanho nacional. Os dados de emissão de metano entérico obtidos poderão ser utilizados na elaboração do inventário nacional de emissão de gases de efeito estufa pelas atividades pecuárias.

224 pages / Natural scientists warn that global climate change is a risk with potentially devastating consequences for human societies and natural ecosystems around the world. Meeting this challenge will require a concerted national and international effort to dramatically reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. It will also, however, require public support for political leaders and government mitigation policies, and committed action by individual citizens and consumers. This dissertation examined whether the American public perceives global warming as a real threat, supports public mitigation policies, or has taken individual actions to mitigate climate change. It found that measures of affect, imagery and cultural worldviews predict public risk perceptions, policy preferences, and individual behaviors. Finally, it used affective image analysis to identify several distinct "interpretive communities" within the American public. The data comes from three surveys: a national survey of the American public completed in February, 2003 (n=673); a statewide survey of the Oregon public completed in February, 2001 (n=900); and a survey of student activists at the 2000 World Climate Conference (COP6) in The Hague, Netherlands (n=112). This research describes an American public with broad concern about global warming, strong bipartisan support for international treaties and national mitigation policies, and strong opposition to higher energy or gasoline prices to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Relatively few Americans have undertaken individual mitigation behaviors. While global warming does have negative connotations for most Americans, the thoughts and images evoked by this term primarily reflect impacts temporally and spatially distant from most people's lives. Critically, this research also finds that Americans do not currently associate global warming with any impacts on human health. Overall, these results suggest that American public opinion about global warming is at a critical turning point. Americans are aware and concerned about global climate change and predisposed to support political leaders and mitigation policies across party lines. Global warming is not a national priority, however, and Americans have yet to confront the tradeoffs that will ultimately be required.

Understanding the impact of warming on organisms, communities and ecosystems is a central problem in ecology. Although species responses to warming are well documented, our ability to scale up to predict community and ecosystem properties is limited. Improving understanding of the mechanisms that link patterns and processes over multiple levels of organisation and across spatial and temporal scales promises to enhance our ability to predict whether the biosphere will exacerbate, or mitigate, climate warming. In this thesis, I combine ideas from metabolic theory with a variety of experimental approaches to further our understanding of how warming will impact photosynthesis and respiration across scales. Firstly, I show how phytoplankton can rapidly evolve increased thermal tolerance by downregulating rates of respiration more than photosynthesis. This increased carbon-use efficiency meant that evolved populations allocated more fixed carbon to growth. I then explore how constraints on individual physiology and community size structure influence phytoplankton community metabolism. Using metabolic theory, I link community primary production and respiration to the size- and temperature- dependence of individual physiology and the distribution of abundance and body size. Finally, I show that selection on photosynthetic traits within and across taxa dampens the effects of temperature on ecosystem-level gross primary production in a set of geothermal streams. Across the thermal-gradient, autotrophs from cold streams had higher photosynthetic rates than autotrophs from warm streams. At the ecosystem-level, the temperature-dependence of gross primary productivity was similar to that of organism-level photosynthesis. However, this was due to covariance between biomass and stream temperature; after accounting for the effects of biomass, gross primary productivity was independent of temperature. Collectively, this work emphasises the importance of ecological, evolutionary and physiological mechanisms that shape how metabolism responds to warming over multiple levels of organisation. Incorporating both the direct and indirect effects of warming on metabolism into predictions of the biosphere to climate futures should be considered a priority.

The nitrogen cycle is one of the key macronutrient cycles that controls the distribution of life on Earth. The nitrogen cycle is composed of a series of distinct microbially mediated processes which may be affected differently with warming. Climate change is likely to affect all components of the nitrogen cycle. However, the extent to which each component will be affected and how this will alter interactions in natural systems is unknown. Here we used laboratory and field experiments to investigate the effect of warming on nitrogen cycling. We used a combination of pure cultures, in-situ measurements and laboratory manipulations of environmental samples to explore responses in freshwater and marine systems. In pure cultures of denitrifying bacteria, denitrification rates increased by 117-164%, with a 4oC temperature increase (11.5-15.5oC). In freshwater mesocosms, long term warming rates of sediment denitrification increased by 247%, with no significant thermal response of sediment nitrification within these systems. Marine sediment rates of denitrification and anammox increased by 4.69-16.23% and 3.71-35.39% respectively, depending on N substrate. Whereas a 3oC temperature increase in the water of the ETNP OMZ increased denitrification and anammox rates by 52.5% and 52.9% respectively, with no significant thermal response of nitrogen fixation in the OMZ surface waters. From this study, nitrogen removal processes increase with increasing temperature across systems but internal transformation and fixation of N show little to no thermal response. Further investigation into the causes of the observed variation in responses, such as substrate limitation and identification of microbes involved, will allow us to better understand and therefore better predict cross-system responses of the nitrogen cycle to global warming.

Cette recherche ambitionne d'analyser d'un point de vue socioépistémique les controverses climatiques. Elle s'est structurée autour de deux objectifs principaux : (1) Elaborer et tester un outil d'analyse résolument réflexif construit au fur et à mesure de l'enquête articulant des cadres préexistants et parfois controversés. (2) Analyser les jeux d'acteurs et d'arguments dans les différents espaces de médiation des savoirs controversés concernant la compréhension du système climatique afin de démêler leurs dimensions épistémologique et axiologique. Pour cela cette recherche propose à partir d'un travail bibliométrique, une reconstruction sociohistorique des principaux éléments controversés depuis le XVIIIe siècle jusqu'à nos jours. De plus elle articule : une analyse des discours de chercheurs climatologues ou non suivant différentes situations de communications, une enquête fondée sur des entretiens individuels et collectif et une analyse sociologique pragmatico-linguistique. Cette radiographie des controverses climatiques permet de décrire « le mille-feuille discursif », restituant le In (la partie visible depuis l'espace public) et le Off (la partie relevant de l'activité de la recherche), en démêlant les dimensions ontologique, épistémologique et axiologique. / This PhD dissertation sets out to analyze, in a socioepistemic way, the various controversies relating to global warming. This work is based on two objectives: (1) to develop and test a reflective analysis tool developed as an ongoing investigation in a single analytical framework articulating existing and occasionally controversial frameworks. (2) To analyze actors' strategies and arguments in the different areas of mediation concerning controversial climate system of knowledge, regarding the understanding to disentangle epistemological and axiological dimensions. This thesis is based on a bibliometric work to build a socio-historical reconstruction of the main controversial elements from the eighteenth century to the present time. Following this epistemological basis the analysis progresses in three steps. The first is an analysis based on a researcher's corpus (climatologists or otherwise) in various situation of communication, secondly completed by inquiry detailed survey with individual and collective interviews and finally a sociolinguistic analysis. Only then does it become possible to provide a radiography of global warming controversies restoring the part we can see, the In and the Off, to unravel the ontological, epistemological and axiological dimensions.